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1953-54 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Koge BK

23 points · 1st Title

Relegated

B.93

15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Koge BK

3.35 points above expected

23 points · 19.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B.93

1.67 points below expected

15 points · 16.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Koge BK Champion 18 10 3 5 23 45 34 +11 19.65 +3.35
2 KB Copenhagen 18 7 6 5 20 27 24 +3 19.63 +0.37
3 AB Gladsaxe 18 8 3 7 19 30 22 +8 18.84 +0.16
4 Frem 18 6 6 6 18 29 29 0 17.35 +0.65
5 Skovshoved 18 7 4 7 18 30 31 -1 19.08 -1.08
6 Odense 18 7 4 7 18 33 38 -5 18.74 -0.74
7 Aarhus GF 18 7 3 8 17 31 31 0 17.90 -0.90
8 B 1903 18 5 6 7 16 25 28 -3 15.84 +0.16
9 Esbjerg 18 6 4 8 16 26 35 -9 16.30 -0.30
10 B.93 Relegated 18 5 5 8 15 28 32 -4 16.67 -1.67

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KB Copenhagen 1520 20 19.63 +0.37 59.4% 5 14 17 20 22 25 33
Koge BK 1516 23 19.65 +3.35 86.0% 4 14 17 20 22 26 32
AB Gladsaxe 1513 19 18.84 +0.16 57.0% 5 13 16 19 21 25 31
Aarhus GF 1501 17 17.90 -0.90 46.2% 4 12 15 18 20 24 32
Skovshoved 1496 18 19.08 -1.08 43.5% 6 13 17 19 22 25 32
Odense 1482 18 18.74 -0.74 46.8% 5 13 16 19 21 25 31
Frem 1472 18 17.35 +0.65 62.8% 2 11 15 17 20 23 31
B.93 1470 15 16.67 -1.67 37.7% 4 11 14 17 19 23 31
Esbjerg 1452 16 16.30 -0.30 52.5% 4 10 14 16 19 22 30
B 1903 1449 16 15.84 +0.16 57.5% 3 10 13 16 18 22 29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AG B1 B.9 ESB FRE KC KB ODE SKO
AB Gladsaxe —
2-0-0
2.80
0-0-2
3.28
1-0-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.02
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.70
1-0-1
2.74
2-0-0
2.64
Aarhus GF
0-0-2
2.68
 —
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-2
2.51
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.59
B 1903
2-0-0
2.21
0-1-1
2.42
 —
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
2.68
1-1-0
2.49
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
2.34
0-1-1
2.28
B.93
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
2.87
 —
2-0-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.41
Esbjerg
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.47
1-1-0
2.80
0-0-2
2.68
 —
0-2-0
2.53
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.28
Frem
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.86
0-2-0
2.95
 —
1-1-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.35
1-1-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.46
KB Copenhagen
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.26
1-1-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.23
0-1-1
3.13
 —
0-2-0
2.70
0-1-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.78
Koge BK
2-0-0
2.79
2-0-0
2.97
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
3.13
0-2-0
2.78
 —
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.85
Odense
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.94
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.93
1-1-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.57
 —
1-1-0
2.73
Skovshoved
0-0-2
2.84
0-1-1
2.90
1-1-0
3.20
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.75
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +3.2
Allowed 0.02 -0.6
Differential 0.70 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%6.11%7.78%1.11%—0.56%18.89%
16.11%11.11%6.67%5.00%3.33%—32.22%
27.78%6.67%5.56%3.33%1.11%1.11%25.56%
31.11%5.00%3.33%4.44%0.56%0.56%15.00%
4—3.33%1.11%0.56%—0.56%5.56%
5+0.56%—1.11%0.56%0.56%—2.78%
Total18.89%32.22%25.56%15.00%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.69 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.42 1.84
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%————16.67%
111.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.22 +0.44
SD 1.28 1.11 1.76
CV 0.77 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
1—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%38.89%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.72 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.78 2.03
CV 0.82 1.03 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.56 -0.17
SD 1.09 1.04 1.58
CV 0.79 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.78 -0.22
SD 1.25 1.40 1.90
CV 0.80 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——22.22%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%33.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.94 -0.50
SD 1.20 1.30 1.92
CV 0.83 0.67 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
211.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
3—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.61 +0.00
SD 0.98 1.20 1.37
CV 0.61 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.33 +0.17
SD 1.15 1.14 1.42
CV 0.77 0.85 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
111.11%——5.56%5.56%—22.22%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
4———————
5+——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
Total33.33%11.11%27.78%5.56%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.89 +0.61
SD 2.38 1.94 2.48
CV 0.95 1.03 —
Max 8 7 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
111.11%16.67%5.56%16.67%5.56%—55.56%
25.56%————5.56%11.11%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.11 -0.28
SD 1.58 1.91 2.32
CV 0.86 0.90 —
Max 7 8 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%33.33%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.72 -0.06
SD 1.37 1.07 1.51
CV 0.82 0.62 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Koge BK 23 19.65 +3.35
2 Frem 18 17.35 +0.65
3 KB Copenhagen 20 19.63 +0.37
4 AB Gladsaxe 19 18.84 +0.16
5 B 1903 16 15.84 +0.16

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B.93 15 16.67 -1.67
2 Skovshoved 18 19.08 -1.08
3 Aarhus GF 17 17.90 -0.90
4 Odense 18 18.74 -0.74
5 Esbjerg 16 16.30 -0.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Koge BK 5 Oct 18 – Mar 28 1 in 66
2 Skovshoved 3 Sep 19 – Oct 11 1 in 19
3 AB Gladsaxe 3 Apr 25 – May 2 1 in 19
4 Esbjerg 2 May 9 – May 14 1 in 12
5 Frem 2 Apr 3 – Apr 11 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B.93 5 Aug 22 – Oct 10 1 in 101
2 Koge BK 3 Apr 18 – May 2 1 in 34
3 AB Gladsaxe 3 Apr 10 – Apr 18 1 in 30
4 Odense 3 Apr 4 – Apr 15 1 in 30
5 Frem 3 Apr 19 – May 2 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B.93 7 Mar 28 – May 2 1 in 39
2 Frem 6 Nov 1 – Apr 16 1 in 20
3 Odense 7 Sep 27 – Mar 28 1 in 20
4 AB Gladsaxe 6 Sep 6 – Nov 1 1 in 15
5 KB Copenhagen 6 Apr 11 – May 8 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1903 7 Sep 5 – Nov 15 1 in 14
2 Aarhus GF 5 Aug 23 – Oct 11 1 in 12
3 KB Copenhagen 4 Nov 15 – Apr 11 1 in 9
4 B.93 5 Aug 22 – Oct 10 1 in 8
5 Skovshoved 4 Apr 15 – Apr 28 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Koge BK20.08%15.59%13.73%11.79%9.74%8.21%7.29%5.81%4.53%3.23%
KB Copenhagen17.58%15.32%13.08%12.02%10.72%9.05%7.40%6.80%4.88%3.15%
AB Gladsaxe13.97%13.58%12.07%11.71%10.68%9.49%9.53%7.61%6.43%4.93%
Frem6.52%7.66%8.70%9.66%10.45%11.26%11.63%11.50%11.72%10.90%
Skovshoved13.15%12.76%12.54%11.50%10.67%10.24%8.97%8.16%7.07%4.94%
Odense10.98%11.66%11.70%10.84%10.75%10.41%9.76%8.93%7.79%7.18%
Aarhus GF8.24%9.21%10.05%10.24%11.07%10.67%11.05%10.50%10.44%8.53%
B 19032.52%3.89%5.26%6.76%8.40%9.97%11.47%13.64%16.63%21.46%
Esbjerg3.21%4.66%5.91%6.94%8.14%10.01%11.54%13.72%15.77%20.10%
B.933.75%5.67%6.96%8.54%9.38%10.69%11.36%13.33%14.74%15.58%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.00%
No Edge
37.78%24.44%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.
1521 Elo
0.001 goals per Elo point
04000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.02 goals
Neutral
-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.5
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
Koge BK, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.9 * Some Luck: 2.9 to 4.36 * Lucky: 4.36 to 5.81 * Wild Swing: 5.81 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.08 * Close: 2.08 to 3.11 * Off: 3.11 to 4.15 * Way Off: 4.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.79 * A Surprise: 0.79 to 1.26 * Several Surprises: 1.26 to 1.73 * Many Surprises: 1.73 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.31 points
As Expected
03.639
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
02.606
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
85.96%
Koge BK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
37.68%
B.93
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.81

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.07
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.54
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
60%
Even
50%62%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.12
Slight Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.13
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
38%
Upset-Prone
0%33%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
47%
Very Shaky
0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.17
Overconfident
01.002.07441
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.062
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 96.85% 3.15%
Koge BK 96.77% 3.23%
AB Gladsaxe 95.07% 4.93%
Skovshoved 95.06% 4.94%
Odense 92.82% 7.18%
Aarhus GF 91.47% 8.53%
Frem 89.10% 10.90%
B.93 84.42% 15.58%
Esbjerg 79.90% 20.10%
B 1903 78.54% 21.46%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1953-08-19 Frem L 1-3 1518 1468 43.98% 25.72% 30.31% -6.6 0
1953-08-19 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1468 1518 30.31% 25.72% 43.98% +6.5 2
1953-08-22 B 1903 L 0-2 1479 1448 41.33% 25.84% 32.82% -7.2 0
1953-08-22 @ B.93 W 2-0 1448 1479 32.82% 25.84% 41.33% +7.2 2
1953-08-23 Odense L 1-3 1492 1497 36.24% 25.92% 37.84% -5.7 0
1953-08-23 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-1 1497 1492 37.84% 25.92% 36.24% +5.6 2
1953-08-23 Esbjerg W 4-2 1511 1468 43.09% 25.77% 31.14% +4.5 2
1953-08-23 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1468 1511 31.14% 25.77% 43.09% -4.5 0
1953-08-23 Aarhus GF W 8-4 1498 1498 37.03% 25.92% 37.05% +7.7 2
1953-08-23 @ Koge BK L 4-8 1498 1498 37.05% 25.92% 37.03% -7.7 0
1953-08-24 Skovshoved L 2-3 1475 1505 32.81% 25.84% 41.35% -2.9 2
1953-08-24 @ Frem W 3-2 1505 1475 41.35% 25.84% 32.81% +2.9 2
1953-09-05 Frem D 0-0 1455 1472 34.71% 25.90% 39.39% +0.1 3
1953-09-05 @ B 1903 D 0-0 1472 1455 39.39% 25.90% 34.71% -0.1 3
1953-09-06 Esbjerg L 1-2 1490 1464 40.80% 25.86% 33.34% -3.6 0
1953-09-06 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1464 1490 33.34% 25.86% 40.80% +3.6 2
1953-09-06 Skovshoved W 2-1 1486 1508 33.91% 25.88% 40.21% +3.5 2
1953-09-06 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1508 1486 40.21% 25.88% 33.91% -3.5 2
1953-09-06 Koge BK D 2-2 1516 1505 38.52% 25.91% 35.56% -0.0 3
1953-09-06 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1505 1516 35.56% 25.91% 38.52% +0.0 3
1953-09-06 B.93 W 3-2 1503 1471 41.48% 25.84% 32.68% +2.9 4
1953-09-06 @ Odense L 2-3 1471 1503 32.68% 25.84% 41.48% -2.9 0
1953-09-19 B.93 W 1-0 1505 1469 42.13% 25.81% 32.05% +3.2 4
1953-09-19 @ Skovshoved L 0-1 1469 1505 32.05% 25.81% 42.13% -3.2 0
1953-09-20 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1467 1489 33.94% 25.88% 40.18% +0.1 3
1953-09-20 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1489 1467 40.18% 25.88% 33.94% -0.1 3
1953-09-20 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1456 1516 28.98% 25.62% 45.40% -4.8 3
1953-09-20 @ B 1903 W 3-1 1516 1456 45.40% 25.62% 28.98% +4.8 5
1953-09-20 Aarhus GF W 2-1 1472 1487 34.94% 25.90% 39.16% +3.5 5
1953-09-20 @ Frem L 1-2 1487 1472 39.16% 25.90% 34.94% -3.5 0
1953-09-20 Odense W 8-2 1506 1506 37.03% 25.92% 37.05% +12.6 5
1953-09-20 @ Koge BK L 2-8 1506 1506 37.05% 25.92% 37.03% -12.6 4
1953-09-26 Skovshoved L 2-3 1521 1508 38.87% 25.91% 35.22% -3.3 5
1953-09-26 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1508 1521 35.22% 25.91% 38.87% +3.3 6
1953-09-27 B 1903 D 2-2 1483 1451 41.63% 25.83% 32.54% -0.1 1
1953-09-27 @ Aarhus GF D 2-2 1451 1483 32.54% 25.83% 41.63% +0.1 4
1953-09-27 Frem D 3-3 1489 1475 39.04% 25.91% 35.06% -0.0 4
1953-09-27 @ AB Gladsaxe D 3-3 1475 1489 35.06% 25.91% 39.04% +0.0 6
1953-09-27 Koge BK L 2-3 1465 1518 29.91% 25.69% 44.40% -2.7 0
1953-09-27 @ B.93 W 3-2 1518 1465 44.40% 25.69% 29.91% +2.7 7
1953-09-27 Odense L 0-2 1467 1493 33.45% 25.87% 40.68% -6.1 3
1953-09-27 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1493 1467 40.68% 25.87% 33.45% +6.1 6
1953-10-10 B.93 W 2-1 1475 1463 38.85% 25.91% 35.24% +3.2 8
1953-10-10 @ Frem L 1-2 1463 1475 35.24% 25.91% 38.85% -3.2 0
1953-10-11 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1489 1483 37.92% 25.92% 36.16% +6.5 6
1953-10-11 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1483 1489 36.16% 25.92% 37.92% -6.5 1
1953-10-11 Esbjerg D 1-1 1451 1461 35.57% 25.91% 38.52% +0.0 5
1953-10-11 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1461 1451 38.52% 25.91% 35.57% -0.0 4
1953-10-11 Skovshoved L 1-4 1521 1511 38.44% 25.91% 35.65% -8.3 7
1953-10-11 @ Koge BK W 4-1 1511 1521 35.65% 25.91% 38.44% +8.4 8
1953-10-11 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1499 1517 34.48% 25.89% 39.62% +3.7 8
1953-10-11 @ Odense L 0-1 1517 1499 39.62% 25.89% 34.48% -3.7 5
1953-10-17 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1514 1496 39.58% 25.90% 34.52% -0.1 6
1953-10-17 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1496 1514 34.52% 25.90% 39.58% +0.1 7
1953-10-18 Esbjerg W 2-0 1459 1461 36.79% 25.92% 37.29% +6.7 2
1953-10-18 @ B.93 L 0-2 1461 1459 37.29% 25.92% 36.79% -6.7 4
1953-10-18 Frem W 1-0 1512 1479 41.83% 25.83% 32.35% +3.2 9
1953-10-18 @ Koge BK L 0-1 1479 1512 32.35% 25.83% 41.83% -3.2 8
1953-10-18 B 1903 D 1-1 1503 1451 44.28% 25.70% 30.02% -0.3 9
1953-10-18 @ Odense D 1-1 1451 1503 30.02% 25.70% 44.28% +0.3 6
1953-10-18 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1519 1477 43.05% 25.77% 31.18% -3.7 8
1953-10-18 @ Skovshoved W 2-1 1477 1519 31.18% 25.77% 43.05% +3.7 3
1953-10-31 Koge BK L 0-2 1451 1516 28.48% 25.58% 45.94% -5.4 6
1953-10-31 @ B 1903 W 2-0 1516 1451 45.94% 25.58% 28.48% +5.4 11
1953-11-01 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1480 1514 32.44% 25.83% 41.73% -6.0 3
1953-11-01 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1514 1480 41.73% 25.83% 32.44% +6.0 8
1953-11-01 AB Gladsaxe L 0-5 1466 1496 32.91% 25.85% 41.25% -14.2 2
1953-11-01 @ B.93 W 5-0 1496 1466 41.25% 25.85% 32.91% +14.2 9
1953-11-01 Skovshoved W 4-1 1455 1516 28.88% 25.61% 45.51% +9.5 6
1953-11-01 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1516 1455 45.51% 25.61% 28.88% -9.5 8
1953-11-01 Odense D 1-1 1475 1503 33.24% 25.86% 40.90% +0.1 9
1953-11-01 @ Frem D 1-1 1503 1475 40.90% 25.86% 33.24% -0.1 10
1953-11-15 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1452 1520 28.10% 25.54% 46.36% +0.3 3
1953-11-15 @ B.93 D 2-2 1520 1452 46.36% 25.54% 28.10% -0.3 9
1953-11-15 Frem D 2-2 1464 1476 35.41% 25.91% 38.68% +0.0 7
1953-11-15 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1476 1464 38.68% 25.91% 35.41% -0.0 10
1953-11-15 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1521 1510 38.61% 25.91% 35.48% +3.4 13
1953-11-15 @ Koge BK L 0-1 1510 1521 35.48% 25.91% 38.61% -3.4 9
1953-11-15 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1502 1474 41.03% 25.86% 33.11% +5.3 12
1953-11-15 @ Odense L 1-3 1474 1502 33.11% 25.86% 41.03% -5.3 3
1953-11-15 B 1903 W 2-1 1506 1446 45.40% 25.62% 28.98% +2.7 10
1953-11-15 @ Skovshoved L 1-2 1446 1506 28.98% 25.62% 45.40% -2.8 6
1953-11-29 B.93 W 4-2 1469 1452 39.44% 25.90% 34.66% +4.9 5
1953-11-29 @ Aarhus GF L 2-4 1452 1469 34.66% 25.90% 39.44% -4.9 3
1953-11-29 Koge BK L 2-5 1464 1524 28.98% 25.62% 45.40% -5.8 7
1953-11-29 @ Esbjerg W 5-2 1524 1464 45.40% 25.62% 28.98% +5.8 15
1953-11-29 AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1443 1507 28.58% 25.59% 45.83% +3.7 8
1953-11-29 @ B 1903 L 2-3 1507 1443 45.83% 25.59% 28.58% -3.7 9
1953-11-29 Odense D 3-3 1509 1508 37.20% 25.92% 36.88% +0.0 11
1953-11-29 @ Skovshoved D 3-3 1508 1509 36.88% 25.92% 37.20% +0.0 13
1954-03-27 KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1475 1519 31.05% 25.76% 43.18% +0.1 11
1954-03-27 @ Frem D 3-3 1519 1475 43.18% 25.76% 31.05% -0.1 10
1954-03-28 Koge BK L 0-2 1474 1530 29.47% 25.66% 44.87% -5.6 5
1954-03-28 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1530 1474 44.87% 25.66% 29.47% +5.6 17
1954-03-28 Esbjerg W 3-0 1503 1458 43.30% 25.76% 30.95% +8.4 11
1954-03-28 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 1458 1503 30.95% 25.76% 43.30% -8.4 7
1954-03-28 B.93 D 1-1 1447 1447 36.96% 25.92% 37.12% +0.0 9
1954-03-28 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1447 1447 37.12% 25.92% 36.96% +0.0 4
1954-03-28 Skovshoved W 1-0 1508 1509 36.88% 25.92% 37.20% +3.5 15
1954-03-28 @ Odense L 0-1 1509 1508 37.20% 25.92% 36.88% -3.5 11
1954-04-03 Koge BK W 2-0 1476 1536 28.99% 25.62% 45.39% +7.8 13
1954-04-03 @ Frem L 0-2 1536 1476 45.39% 25.62% 28.99% -7.8 17
1954-04-04 Odense W 4-1 1447 1511 28.53% 25.58% 45.88% +9.6 6
1954-04-04 @ B.93 L 1-4 1511 1447 45.88% 25.58% 28.53% -9.6 15
1954-04-04 B 1903 W 2-1 1450 1447 37.48% 25.92% 36.60% +3.3 9
1954-04-04 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1447 1450 36.60% 25.92% 37.48% -3.3 9
1954-04-04 Aarhus GF L 0-3 1519 1468 44.13% 25.71% 30.17% -11.0 10
1954-04-04 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-0 1468 1519 30.17% 25.71% 44.13% +11.0 7
1954-04-10 B 1903 L 1-2 1511 1444 46.39% 25.54% 28.07% -4.0 11
1954-04-10 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1444 1511 28.07% 25.54% 46.39% +4.0 11
1954-04-11 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1457 1479 33.89% 25.88% 40.23% +0.1 7
1954-04-11 @ B.93 D 1-1 1479 1457 40.23% 25.88% 33.89% -0.1 8
1954-04-11 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1528 1508 39.88% 25.89% 34.23% -0.1 18
1954-04-11 @ Koge BK D 0-0 1508 1528 34.23% 25.89% 39.88% +0.1 11
1954-04-11 Frem L 1-2 1502 1483 39.65% 25.89% 34.46% -3.5 15
1954-04-11 @ Odense W 2-1 1483 1502 34.46% 25.89% 39.65% +3.5 15
1954-04-11 Esbjerg W 2-0 1505 1453 44.32% 25.69% 29.99% +5.6 13
1954-04-11 @ Skovshoved L 0-2 1453 1505 29.99% 25.69% 44.32% -5.6 9
1954-04-15 Odense W 3-1 1479 1498 34.37% 25.89% 39.74% +6.1 10
1954-04-15 @ Aarhus GF L 1-3 1498 1479 39.74% 25.89% 34.37% -6.0 15
1954-04-15 B.93 L 0-1 1507 1457 44.07% 25.71% 30.22% -4.0 11
1954-04-15 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1457 1507 30.22% 25.71% 44.07% +4.0 9
1954-04-15 B 1903 W 3-1 1528 1447 48.03% 25.39% 26.59% +4.4 20
1954-04-15 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1447 1528 26.59% 25.39% 48.03% -4.4 11
1954-04-15 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1511 1508 37.44% 25.92% 36.64% -6.7 13
1954-04-15 @ Skovshoved W 2-0 1508 1511 36.64% 25.92% 37.44% +6.7 13
1954-04-16 Esbjerg D 1-1 1487 1448 42.58% 25.79% 31.63% -0.2 16
1954-04-16 @ Frem D 1-1 1448 1487 31.63% 25.79% 42.58% +0.2 10
1954-04-18 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1503 1515 35.40% 25.91% 38.69% -3.4 11
1954-04-18 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1515 1503 38.69% 25.91% 35.40% +3.4 15
1954-04-18 Koge BK W 7-3 1492 1532 31.52% 25.79% 42.70% +9.1 17
1954-04-18 @ Odense L 3-7 1532 1492 42.70% 25.79% 31.52% -9.0 20
1954-04-19 Skovshoved D 3-3 1461 1504 31.13% 25.77% 43.11% +0.1 10
1954-04-19 @ B.93 D 3-3 1504 1461 43.11% 25.77% 31.13% -0.1 14
1954-04-19 Aarhus GF L 0-2 1448 1485 31.86% 25.80% 42.34% -5.9 10
1954-04-19 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1485 1448 42.34% 25.80% 31.86% +5.9 12
1954-04-19 B 1903 L 1-4 1487 1443 43.16% 25.76% 31.07% -9.1 16
1954-04-19 @ Frem W 4-1 1443 1487 31.07% 25.76% 43.16% +9.1 13
1954-04-24 Skovshoved D 1-1 1452 1504 30.01% 25.70% 44.29% +0.3 14
1954-04-24 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1504 1452 44.29% 25.70% 30.01% -0.3 15
1954-04-25 AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1491 1500 35.80% 25.92% 38.29% -3.4 12
1954-04-25 @ Aarhus GF W 1-0 1500 1491 38.29% 25.92% 35.80% +3.4 13
1954-04-25 Frem W 2-1 1461 1478 34.73% 25.90% 39.37% +3.5 12
1954-04-25 @ B.93 L 1-2 1478 1461 39.37% 25.90% 34.73% -3.5 16
1954-04-25 Odense D 1-1 1518 1501 39.48% 25.90% 34.63% -0.1 16
1954-04-25 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1501 1518 34.63% 25.90% 39.48% +0.1 18
1954-04-25 Esbjerg L 1-3 1523 1442 48.16% 25.37% 26.47% -7.1 20
1954-04-25 @ Koge BK W 3-1 1442 1523 26.47% 25.37% 48.16% +7.1 12
1954-04-28 AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1504 1503 37.11% 25.92% 36.96% -3.5 15
1954-04-28 @ Skovshoved W 1-0 1503 1504 36.96% 25.92% 37.11% +3.5 15
1954-05-02 Frem W 2-0 1488 1474 39.00% 25.91% 35.09% +6.4 14
1954-05-02 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1474 1488 35.09% 25.91% 39.00% -6.4 16
1954-05-02 B.93 L 1-4 1449 1465 34.81% 25.90% 39.29% -7.8 12
1954-05-02 @ Esbjerg W 4-1 1465 1449 39.29% 25.90% 34.81% +7.8 14
1954-05-02 B 1903 W 1-0 1518 1452 46.12% 25.56% 28.32% +2.8 18
1954-05-02 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1452 1518 28.32% 25.56% 46.12% -2.9 14
1954-05-02 AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1501 1507 36.24% 25.92% 37.84% -6.5 18
1954-05-02 @ Odense W 2-0 1507 1501 37.84% 25.92% 36.24% +6.5 17
1954-05-02 Koge BK W 4-3 1500 1516 34.79% 25.90% 39.31% +3.2 17
1954-05-02 @ Skovshoved L 3-4 1516 1500 39.31% 25.90% 34.79% -3.2 20
1954-05-08 B.93 W 2-1 1521 1472 43.84% 25.72% 30.44% +2.9 20
1954-05-08 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1472 1521 30.44% 25.72% 43.84% -2.9 14
1954-05-09 Koge BK L 1-2 1513 1513 37.09% 25.92% 36.99% -3.3 17
1954-05-09 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1513 1513 36.99% 25.92% 37.09% +3.3 22
1954-05-09 Aarhus GF L 1-4 1450 1494 30.95% 25.76% 43.29% -7.1 14
1954-05-09 @ B 1903 W 4-1 1494 1450 43.29% 25.76% 30.95% +7.1 16
1954-05-09 Esbjerg L 1-3 1495 1441 44.51% 25.68% 29.81% -6.6 18
1954-05-09 @ Odense W 3-1 1441 1495 29.81% 25.68% 44.51% +6.6 14
1954-05-10 Frem L 0-2 1504 1468 42.10% 25.81% 32.08% -7.3 17
1954-05-10 @ Skovshoved W 2-0 1468 1504 32.08% 25.81% 42.10% +7.3 18
1954-05-14 Skovshoved D 1-1 1501 1496 37.76% 25.92% 36.32% -0.0 17
1954-05-14 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1496 1501 36.32% 25.92% 37.76% +0.0 18
1954-05-14 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1448 1524 27.09% 25.44% 47.47% +4.3 16
1954-05-14 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1524 1448 47.47% 25.44% 27.09% -4.3 20
1954-05-14 Odense W 3-1 1443 1488 30.82% 25.75% 43.44% +6.5 16
1954-05-14 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1488 1443 43.44% 25.75% 30.82% -6.5 18
1954-05-14 AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1475 1510 32.19% 25.82% 41.99% -2.8 18
1954-05-14 @ Frem W 3-2 1510 1475 41.99% 25.82% 32.19% +2.8 19
1954-05-14 B.93 D 0-0 1516 1470 43.59% 25.74% 30.67% -0.3 23
1954-05-14 @ Koge BK D 0-0 1470 1516 30.67% 25.74% 43.59% +0.3 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1954-04-25 26.47% Esbjerg 1442 3 @ Koge BK 1523 1
2 1954-05-14 27.09% @ Esbjerg 1448 1 KB Copenhagen 1524 0
3 1954-04-10 28.07% B 1903 1444 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1511 1
4 1954-04-04 28.53% @ B.93 1447 4 Odense 1511 1
5 1953-11-29 28.58% @ B 1903 1443 3 AB Gladsaxe 1507 2
6 1953-11-01 28.88% @ Esbjerg 1455 4 Skovshoved 1516 1
7 1954-04-03 28.99% @ Frem 1476 2 Koge BK 1536 0
8 1954-05-09 29.81% Esbjerg 1441 3 @ Odense 1495 1
9 1954-04-04 30.17% Aarhus GF 1468 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1519 0
10 1954-04-15 30.22% B.93 1457 1 @ AB Gladsaxe 1507 0
11 1953-08-19 30.31% Frem 1468 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1518 1
12 1954-05-14 30.82% @ B 1903 1443 3 Odense 1488 1
13 1954-04-19 31.07% B 1903 1443 4 @ Frem 1487 1
14 1953-10-18 31.18% Aarhus GF 1477 2 @ Skovshoved 1519 1
15 1954-04-18 31.52% @ Odense 1492 7 Koge BK 1532 3
16 1954-05-10 32.08% Frem 1468 2 @ Skovshoved 1504 0
17 1953-08-22 32.82% B 1903 1448 2 @ B.93 1479 0
18 1953-09-06 33.34% Esbjerg 1464 2 @ Aarhus GF 1490 1
19 1953-09-06 33.91% @ AB Gladsaxe 1486 2 Skovshoved 1508 1
20 1954-04-15 34.37% @ Aarhus GF 1479 3 Odense 1498 1
21 1954-04-11 34.46% Frem 1483 2 @ Odense 1502 1
22 1953-10-11 34.48% @ Odense 1499 1 KB Copenhagen 1517 0
23 1954-04-25 34.73% @ B.93 1461 2 Frem 1478 1
24 1954-05-02 34.79% @ Skovshoved 1500 4 Koge BK 1516 3
25 1953-09-20 34.94% @ Frem 1472 2 Aarhus GF 1487 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-11-01 14.18 AB Gladsaxe 5 1496 41.25% @ B.93 0 1466 32.91% 25.85%
2 1953-09-20 12.58 @ Koge BK 8 1506 37.03% Odense 2 1506 37.05% 25.92%
3 1954-04-04 11.02 Aarhus GF 3 1468 30.17% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1519 44.13% 25.71%
4 1954-04-04 9.60 @ B.93 4 1447 28.53% Odense 1 1511 45.88% 25.58%
5 1953-11-01 9.53 @ Esbjerg 4 1455 28.88% Skovshoved 1 1516 45.51% 25.61%
6 1954-04-19 9.14 B 1903 4 1443 31.07% @ Frem 1 1487 43.16% 25.76%
7 1954-04-18 9.06 @ Odense 7 1492 31.52% Koge BK 3 1532 42.70% 25.79%
8 1954-03-28 8.40 @ AB Gladsaxe 3 1503 43.30% Esbjerg 0 1458 30.95% 25.76%
9 1953-10-11 8.35 Skovshoved 4 1511 35.65% @ Koge BK 1 1521 38.44% 25.91%
10 1954-04-03 7.76 @ Frem 2 1476 28.99% Koge BK 0 1536 45.39% 25.62%
11 1954-05-02 7.75 B.93 4 1465 39.29% @ Esbjerg 1 1449 34.81% 25.90%
12 1953-08-23 7.65 @ Koge BK 8 1498 37.03% Aarhus GF 4 1498 37.05% 25.92%
13 1954-05-10 7.31 Frem 2 1468 32.08% @ Skovshoved 0 1504 42.10% 25.81%
14 1953-08-22 7.20 B 1903 2 1448 32.82% @ B.93 0 1479 41.33% 25.84%
15 1954-05-09 7.08 Aarhus GF 4 1494 43.29% @ B 1903 1 1450 30.95% 25.76%
16 1954-04-25 7.06 Esbjerg 3 1442 26.47% @ Koge BK 1 1523 48.16% 25.37%
17 1954-04-15 6.68 KB Copenhagen 2 1508 36.64% @ Skovshoved 0 1511 37.44% 25.92%
18 1953-10-18 6.66 @ B.93 2 1459 36.79% Esbjerg 0 1461 37.29% 25.92%
19 1954-05-09 6.62 Esbjerg 3 1441 29.81% @ Odense 1 1495 44.51% 25.68%
20 1953-08-19 6.56 Frem 3 1468 30.31% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1518 43.98% 25.72%
21 1953-10-11 6.52 @ AB Gladsaxe 2 1489 37.92% Aarhus GF 0 1483 36.16% 25.92%
22 1954-05-02 6.52 AB Gladsaxe 2 1507 37.84% @ Odense 0 1501 36.24% 25.92%
23 1954-05-14 6.49 @ B 1903 3 1443 30.82% Odense 1 1488 43.44% 25.75%
24 1954-05-02 6.37 @ Aarhus GF 2 1488 39.00% Frem 0 1474 35.09% 25.91%
25 1953-09-27 6.14 Odense 2 1493 40.68% @ Esbjerg 0 1467 33.45% 25.87%