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2018-19 First Division B Season

124 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

Mechelen

via playoff

Relegated

Tubize

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Beerschot Wilrijk

11.54 points above expected

54 points · 42.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

6.96 points below expected

29 points · 35.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Mechelen Promoted 28 17 8 3 59 55 25 +30 52.32 +6.68
2 Beerschot Wilrijk 28 15 9 4 54 48 33 +15 42.46 +11.54
3 Union SG 28 13 6 9 45 41 29 +12 40.75 +4.25
4 Westerlo 28 9 7 12 34 28 37 -9 37.97 -3.97
5 Roeselare 28 8 9 11 33 33 41 -8 33.04 -0.04
6 Lommel 28 8 7 13 31 34 46 -12 37.57 -6.57
7 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 28 8 5 15 29 40 48 -8 35.96 -6.96
8 Tubize Relegated 28 6 5 17 23 28 48 -20 29.36 -6.36
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 6 4 1 1 13 11 3 +8 — —
2 Roeselare 6 2 2 2 8 8 7 +1 — —
3 Lommel 6 2 1 3 7 5 5 0 — —
4 Tubize 6 1 2 3 5 3 12 -9 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Mechelen 2
Beerschot Wilrijk 1

Leg 1: Mechelen 2-1 Beerschot Wilrijk

Leg 2: Beerschot Wilrijk 0-0 Mechelen

Sim: 16.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Union SG 1674 45 40.75 +4.25 75.8% 17 30 36 41 45 52 65
Mechelen 1671 59 52.32 +6.68 86.1% 25 41 48 52 57 63 78
Beerschot Wilrijk 1571 54 42.46 +11.54 96.4% 18 31 38 42 47 54 66
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1542 29 35.96 -6.96 17.2% 13 25 31 36 41 47 67
Westerlo 1538 34 37.97 -3.97 31.2% 14 27 33 38 43 49 64
Roeselare 1482 33 33.04 -0.04 53.2% 9 22 29 33 38 44 59
Lommel 1459 31 37.57 -6.57 18.4% 13 27 33 37 42 49 64
Tubize 1379 23 29.36 -6.36 17.9% 8 19 25 29 34 40 53

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BW LOM MEC OL ROE TUB US WES
Beerschot Wilrijk —
3-0-1
6.38
1-2-1
4.25
2-2-0
6.34
2-1-1
6.84
3-1-0
6.99
2-1-1
5.67
2-2-0
5.97
Lommel
1-0-3
4.65
 —
1-1-2
3.94
1-1-2
5.79
1-1-2
6.03
2-2-0
6.56
1-1-2
5.09
1-1-2
5.48
Mechelen
1-2-1
6.80
2-1-1
7.13
 —
3-1-0
7.59
1-3-0
7.90
4-0-0
8.36
2-1-1
7.25
4-0-0
7.32
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
0-2-2
4.69
2-1-1
5.23
0-1-3
3.53
 —
1-0-3
6.02
2-0-2
6.34
1-0-3
4.96
2-1-1
5.16
Roeselare
1-1-2
4.21
2-1-1
4.99
0-3-1
3.23
3-0-1
5.01
 —
1-1-2
5.89
1-2-1
4.55
0-1-3
5.07
Tubize
0-1-3
4.06
0-2-2
4.48
0-0-4
2.80
2-0-2
4.68
2-1-1
5.13
 —
1-0-3
3.85
1-1-2
4.40
Union SG
1-1-2
5.36
2-1-1
5.94
1-1-2
3.83
3-0-1
6.07
1-2-1
6.48
3-0-1
7.23
 —
2-1-1
5.99
Westerlo
0-2-2
5.06
2-1-1
5.55
0-0-4
3.76
1-1-2
5.86
3-1-0
5.96
2-1-1
6.63
1-1-2
5.05
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +11.9
Allowed 0.84 -13.2
Differential 0.96 +7.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.65%7.66%6.05%5.24%0.81%0.40%25.81%
17.66%12.10%7.66%6.05%0.81%—34.27%
26.05%7.66%6.45%2.02%0.40%0.40%22.98%
35.24%6.05%2.02%0.81%——14.11%
40.81%0.81%0.40%———2.02%
5+0.40%—0.40%———0.81%
Total25.81%34.27%22.98%14.11%2.02%0.81%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.35 +0.00
SD 1.12 1.12 1.73
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 124

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—3.57%3.57%——10.71%
110.71%21.43%3.57%3.57%——39.29%
23.57%17.86%3.57%———25.00%
33.57%10.71%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total21.43%50.00%17.86%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.18 +0.54
SD 1.15 0.90 1.40
CV 0.67 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%14.71%8.82%5.88%——32.35%
18.82%11.76%2.94%2.94%2.94%—29.41%
22.94%8.82%8.82%5.88%2.94%—29.41%
32.94%5.88%————8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%41.18%20.59%14.71%5.88%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.50 -0.35
SD 0.99 1.13 1.54
CV 0.86 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%———3.57%14.29%
13.57%10.71%3.57%———17.86%
23.57%10.71%10.71%———25.00%
328.57%10.71%3.57%———42.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%35.71%17.86%——3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.89 +1.07
SD 1.10 1.10 1.80
CV 0.56 1.23 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.94%5.88%5.88%2.94%——17.65%
15.88%8.82%11.76%17.65%——44.12%
22.94%2.94%5.88%2.94%——14.71%
38.82%5.88%2.94%———17.65%
42.94%2.94%————5.88%
5+———————
Total23.53%26.47%26.47%23.53%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.11 1.87
CV 0.77 0.74 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%8.82%5.88%5.88%2.94%—29.41%
18.82%14.71%8.82%2.94%——35.29%
22.94%8.82%11.76%2.94%——26.47%
3—2.94%————2.94%
42.94%—2.94%———5.88%
5+———————
Total20.59%35.29%29.41%11.76%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.41 -0.21
SD 1.09 1.05 1.61
CV 0.91 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%14.71%5.88%11.76%2.94%—44.12%
15.88%5.88%5.88%8.82%2.94%—29.41%
28.82%—2.94%2.94%—2.94%17.65%
3—2.94%2.94%2.94%——8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.53%23.53%17.65%26.47%5.88%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.76 -0.85
SD 1.00 1.39 1.67
CV 1.09 0.79 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
17.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%——39.29%
217.86%7.14%3.57%———28.57%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%35.71%28.57%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.04 +0.43
SD 1.14 0.88 1.62
CV 0.78 0.85 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%10.71%10.71%——35.71%
110.71%10.71%10.71%7.14%——39.29%
27.14%7.14%3.57%———17.86%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%25.00%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.32 -0.32
SD 1.02 1.09 1.66
CV 1.02 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 54 42.46 +11.54
2 Mechelen 59 52.32 +6.68
3 Union SG 45 40.75 +4.25
4 Roeselare 33 33.04 -0.04
5 Westerlo 34 37.97 -3.97

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 29 35.96 -6.96
2 Lommel 31 37.57 -6.57
3 Tubize 23 29.36 -6.36
4 Westerlo 34 37.97 -3.97
5 Roeselare 33 33.04 -0.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mechelen 9 Sep 23 – Nov 17 1 in 323
2 Roeselare 3 Feb 1 – Feb 16 1 in 41
3 Union SG 4 Sep 15 – Oct 7 1 in 38
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 4 Nov 3 – Nov 25 1 in 36
5 Westerlo 3 Sep 1 – Sep 16 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tubize 7 Sep 21 – Nov 3 1 in 133
2 Roeselare 5 Oct 27 – Nov 17 1 in 73
3 Westerlo 4 Sep 23 – Oct 19 1 in 69
4 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 Sep 15 – Oct 5 1 in 47
5 Lommel 4 Jan 27 – Feb 17 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Beerschot Wilrijk 16 Nov 3 – Mar 3 1 in 554
2 Mechelen 20 Sep 23 – Feb 15 1 in 107
3 Union SG 9 Sep 9 – Nov 4 1 in 35
4 Roeselare 5 Feb 1 – Mar 3 1 in 25
5 Lommel 5 Aug 3 – Sep 8 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7 Aug 19 – Oct 5 1 in 31
2 Roeselare 9 Oct 6 – Dec 1 1 in 27
3 Lommel 7 Jan 19 – Mar 3 1 in 14
4 Tubize 7 Sep 21 – Nov 3 1 in 8
5 Westerlo 5 Dec 8 – Jan 19 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Mechelen71.16%17.09%6.73%2.82%1.31%0.58%0.27%0.04%
Beerschot Wilrijk11.41%27.32%21.18%15.45%10.80%7.03%4.59%2.22%
Union SG7.39%20.90%20.67%17.49%13.84%10.24%6.56%2.91%
Westerlo3.75%11.46%15.61%16.75%17.10%15.38%12.63%7.32%
Roeselare0.77%3.77%6.81%10.91%14.33%18.86%23.05%21.50%
Lommel3.28%10.62%14.45%16.42%17.35%16.63%13.41%7.84%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven2.03%7.77%11.75%15.30%17.08%17.53%16.56%11.98%
Tubize0.21%1.07%2.80%4.86%8.19%13.75%22.93%46.19%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.26%
Slight Edge
41.13%25.00%33.87%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 25.26 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.15 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
71%
Mechelen, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.260.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.35 * Some Luck: 5.35 to 8.02 * Lucky: 8.02 to 10.7 * Wild Swing: 10.7 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.11 * Close: 1.11 to 1.66 * Off: 1.66 to 2.22 * Way Off: 2.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.55 points
Some Luck
06.6917
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
01.393
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
96.39%
Beerschot Wilrijk
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
17.17%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.61
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%82%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.95
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.34
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.58
Very Underconfident
0.2515691.001.74843
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.145
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Beerschot Wilrijk — 100% — —
Lommel 47.39% 13.90% 30.87% 7.84%
Mechelen — 100% — —
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 51.17% 9.80% 27.05% 11.98%
Roeselare 56.24% 4.54% 17.72% 21.50%
Tubize 44.87% 1.28% 7.66% 46.19%
Union SG 30.64% 28.29% 38.16% 2.91%
Westerlo 45.11% 15.21% 32.36% 7.32%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkLommelMechelenOud-Heverlee LeuvenRoeselareTubizeUnion SGWesterlo
Beerschot Wilrijk100.0%1.00%46.7%30.00%33.3%3.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%
Lommel0.0%1.00%10.0%10.00%
Mechelen53.3%30.00%90.0%10.00%87.5%8.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%82.6%23.00%66.7%12.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven66.7%3.00%12.5%8.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Roeselare0.0%4.00%
Tubize0.0%1.00%
Union SG80.0%5.00%17.4%23.00%100.0%1.00%
Westerlo0.0%1.00%33.3%12.00%0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Mechelen 58.23%
Beerschot Wilrijk 41.77%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkMechelen
Beerschot Wilrijk41.8%100.00%
Mechelen58.2%100.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for relegation playoff
Lommel 100% —
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 100% —
Roeselare 100% —
Tubize — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2018-08-03 Union SG W 1-0 1532 1511 48.01% 24.26% 27.73% +6.2 3
2018-08-03 @ Lommel L 0-1 1511 1532 27.73% 24.26% 48.01% -6.2 0
2018-08-04 Mechelen D 1-1 1538 1586 38.48% 24.78% 36.74% -0.1 1
2018-08-04 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1586 1538 36.74% 24.78% 38.48% +0.1 1
2018-08-04 Roeselare W 2-1 1538 1507 49.26% 24.12% 26.62% +5.6 3
2018-08-04 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1507 1538 26.62% 24.12% 49.26% -5.6 0
2018-08-05 Beerschot Wilrijk D 3-3 1475 1544 35.53% 24.76% 39.71% +0.1 1
2018-08-05 @ Tubize D 3-3 1544 1475 39.71% 24.76% 35.53% -0.1 1
2018-08-10 Westerlo D 1-1 1544 1543 45.28% 24.50% 30.22% -0.6 2
2018-08-10 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1543 1544 30.22% 24.50% 45.28% +0.6 4
2018-08-11 Mechelen D 2-2 1501 1586 33.34% 24.69% 41.97% +0.3 1
2018-08-11 @ Roeselare D 2-2 1586 1501 41.97% 24.69% 33.34% -0.3 2
2018-08-11 Tubize D 2-2 1538 1475 53.22% 23.56% 23.22% -1.0 4
2018-08-11 @ Lommel D 2-2 1475 1538 23.22% 23.56% 53.22% +1.0 2
2018-08-12 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-2 1505 1538 40.63% 24.74% 34.63% -7.9 0
2018-08-12 @ Union SG W 2-1 1538 1505 34.63% 24.74% 40.63% +7.9 4
2018-08-17 Lommel L 1-2 1586 1537 51.42% 23.84% 24.74% -9.5 2
2018-08-17 @ Mechelen W 2-1 1537 1586 24.74% 23.84% 51.42% +9.5 7
2018-08-18 Roeselare D 0-0 1476 1501 41.76% 24.70% 33.54% -0.4 3
2018-08-18 @ Tubize D 0-0 1501 1476 33.54% 24.70% 41.76% +0.4 2
2018-08-18 Union SG L 1-3 1544 1497 51.29% 23.86% 24.85% -16.5 4
2018-08-18 @ Westerlo W 3-1 1497 1544 24.85% 23.86% 51.29% +16.5 3
2018-08-19 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1545 1543 45.47% 24.49% 30.04% -0.7 5
2018-08-19 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1543 1545 30.04% 24.49% 45.47% +0.7 3
2018-08-31 Union SG W 1-0 1544 1513 49.22% 24.13% 26.65% +6.0 6
2018-08-31 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1513 1544 26.65% 24.13% 49.22% -6.0 3
2018-09-01 Lommel D 2-2 1502 1547 38.88% 24.77% 36.34% -0.1 3
2018-09-01 @ Roeselare D 2-2 1547 1502 36.34% 24.77% 38.88% +0.1 8
2018-09-01 Westerlo L 1-3 1545 1527 47.50% 24.32% 28.19% -15.5 5
2018-09-01 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1527 1545 28.19% 24.32% 47.50% +15.5 7
2018-09-02 Tubize W 1-0 1576 1476 57.51% 22.72% 19.77% +4.6 5
2018-09-02 @ Mechelen L 0-1 1476 1576 19.77% 22.72% 57.51% -4.6 3
2018-09-08 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1547 1529 47.52% 24.31% 28.16% -0.8 9
2018-09-08 @ Lommel D 1-1 1529 1547 28.16% 24.31% 47.52% +0.8 6
2018-09-08 Tubize W 2-1 1543 1471 54.24% 23.38% 22.38% +4.9 10
2018-09-08 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1471 1543 22.38% 23.38% 54.24% -4.9 3
2018-09-09 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1502 1550 38.43% 24.78% 36.79% +7.3 6
2018-09-09 @ Roeselare L 1-2 1550 1502 36.79% 24.78% 38.43% -7.3 6
2018-09-09 Mechelen D 2-2 1507 1581 34.91% 24.75% 40.35% +0.2 4
2018-09-09 @ Union SG D 2-2 1581 1507 40.35% 24.75% 34.91% -0.2 6
2018-09-14 Mechelen W 1-0 1543 1580 39.95% 24.75% 35.29% +7.5 9
2018-09-14 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1580 1543 35.29% 24.75% 39.95% -7.5 6
2018-09-15 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1466 1530 36.26% 24.77% 38.97% +13.2 6
2018-09-15 @ Tubize L 1-3 1530 1466 38.97% 24.77% 36.26% -13.2 6
2018-09-15 Roeselare W 2-0 1507 1509 44.99% 24.53% 30.48% +12.6 7
2018-09-15 @ Union SG L 0-2 1509 1507 30.48% 24.53% 44.99% -12.6 6
2018-09-16 Lommel W 4-1 1548 1546 45.40% 24.50% 30.11% +15.3 13
2018-09-16 @ Westerlo L 1-4 1546 1548 30.11% 24.50% 45.40% -15.3 9
2018-09-21 Union SG L 0-2 1480 1520 39.59% 24.76% 35.65% -15.4 6
2018-09-21 @ Tubize W 2-0 1520 1480 35.65% 24.76% 39.59% +15.4 10
2018-09-22 Lommel L 1-3 1550 1531 47.75% 24.29% 27.96% -15.5 9
2018-09-22 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-1 1531 1550 27.96% 24.29% 47.75% +15.5 12
2018-09-22 Roeselare L 0-2 1517 1496 47.93% 24.27% 27.80% -18.0 6
2018-09-22 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-0 1496 1517 27.80% 24.27% 47.93% +18.0 9
2018-09-23 Westerlo W 2-0 1573 1563 46.51% 24.41% 29.09% +12.1 9
2018-09-23 @ Mechelen L 0-2 1563 1573 29.09% 24.41% 46.51% -12.1 13
2018-09-28 Tubize W 2-1 1514 1464 51.63% 23.81% 24.55% +5.3 12
2018-09-28 @ Roeselare L 1-2 1464 1514 24.55% 23.81% 51.63% -5.3 6
2018-09-29 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1551 1535 47.34% 24.33% 28.33% -8.9 13
2018-09-29 @ Westerlo W 2-1 1535 1551 28.33% 24.33% 47.34% +8.9 12
2018-09-29 Mechelen L 0-3 1546 1585 39.82% 24.76% 35.42% -22.5 12
2018-09-29 @ Lommel W 3-0 1585 1546 35.42% 24.76% 39.82% +22.5 12
2018-09-30 Union SG L 1-3 1499 1535 40.13% 24.75% 35.12% -13.5 6
2018-09-30 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1535 1499 35.12% 24.75% 40.13% +13.5 13
2018-10-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-0 1608 1485 59.91% 22.13% 17.96% +11.5 15
2018-10-05 @ Mechelen L 0-3 1485 1608 17.96% 22.13% 59.91% -11.5 6
2018-10-06 Roeselare W 3-1 1524 1519 45.77% 24.47% 29.77% +10.7 15
2018-10-06 @ Lommel L 1-3 1519 1524 29.77% 24.47% 45.77% -10.7 12
2018-10-06 Tubize W 1-0 1544 1459 55.75% 23.09% 21.15% +4.9 15
2018-10-06 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1459 1544 21.15% 23.09% 55.75% -4.9 6
2018-10-07 Westerlo W 2-0 1549 1542 46.12% 24.44% 29.44% +12.3 16
2018-10-07 @ Union SG L 0-2 1542 1549 29.44% 24.44% 46.12% -12.3 13
2018-10-19 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-1 1530 1474 52.35% 23.70% 23.95% -10.3 13
2018-10-19 @ Westerlo W 1-0 1474 1530 23.95% 23.70% 52.35% +10.3 9
2018-10-20 Lommel L 0-2 1454 1535 33.94% 24.72% 41.35% -13.7 6
2018-10-20 @ Tubize W 2-0 1535 1454 41.35% 24.72% 33.94% +13.7 18
2018-10-20 Union SG D 1-1 1509 1561 37.85% 24.78% 37.37% -0.0 13
2018-10-20 @ Roeselare D 1-1 1561 1509 37.37% 24.78% 37.85% +0.0 17
2018-10-21 Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-0 1619 1548 54.13% 23.40% 22.46% +14.1 18
2018-10-21 @ Mechelen L 0-3 1548 1619 22.46% 23.40% 54.13% -14.1 15
2018-10-26 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1534 1484 51.65% 23.81% 24.54% +9.1 18
2018-10-26 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-3 1484 1534 24.54% 23.81% 51.65% -9.1 9
2018-10-27 Roeselare W 3-0 1633 1509 60.15% 22.07% 17.78% +11.4 21
2018-10-27 @ Mechelen L 0-3 1509 1633 17.78% 22.07% 60.15% -11.4 13
2018-10-27 Tubize W 3-2 1561 1440 59.77% 22.17% 18.06% +3.8 20
2018-10-27 @ Union SG L 2-3 1440 1561 18.06% 22.17% 59.77% -3.8 6
2018-10-28 Westerlo L 0-1 1548 1519 48.98% 24.16% 26.86% -9.7 18
2018-10-28 @ Lommel W 1-0 1519 1548 26.86% 24.16% 48.98% +9.7 16
2018-10-30 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-0 1565 1543 48.05% 24.26% 27.69% +11.7 23
2018-10-30 @ Union SG L 0-2 1543 1565 27.69% 24.26% 48.05% -11.7 18
2018-10-30 Mechelen L 0-3 1437 1645 19.81% 22.73% 57.46% -12.6 6
2018-10-30 @ Tubize W 3-0 1645 1437 57.46% 22.73% 19.81% +12.6 24
2018-10-31 Westerlo L 0-1 1497 1529 40.80% 24.73% 34.47% -8.4 13
2018-10-31 @ Roeselare W 1-0 1529 1497 34.47% 24.73% 40.80% +8.4 19
2018-11-03 Roeselare W 2-1 1532 1489 50.74% 23.94% 25.32% +5.4 21
2018-11-03 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1489 1532 25.32% 23.94% 50.74% -5.4 13
2018-11-03 Tubize W 4-1 1475 1424 51.78% 23.79% 24.43% +12.8 12
2018-11-03 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-4 1424 1475 24.43% 23.79% 51.78% -12.8 6
2018-11-04 Lommel D 1-1 1577 1539 50.16% 24.01% 25.83% -1.0 24
2018-11-04 @ Union SG D 1-1 1539 1577 25.83% 24.01% 50.16% +1.1 19
2018-11-04 Mechelen L 0-3 1538 1657 28.91% 24.39% 46.70% -17.5 19
2018-11-04 @ Westerlo W 3-0 1657 1538 46.70% 24.39% 28.91% +17.5 27
2018-11-09 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1540 1537 45.51% 24.49% 30.00% -8.6 19
2018-11-09 @ Lommel W 2-1 1537 1540 30.00% 24.49% 45.51% +8.6 24
2018-11-09 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-4 1484 1488 44.59% 24.55% 30.86% -32.2 13
2018-11-09 @ Roeselare W 4-0 1488 1484 30.86% 24.55% 44.59% +32.2 15
2018-11-09 Union SG W 2-1 1675 1576 57.40% 22.74% 19.86% +4.3 30
2018-11-09 @ Mechelen L 1-2 1576 1675 19.86% 22.74% 57.40% -4.4 24
2018-11-09 Westerlo W 2-0 1411 1520 30.25% 24.51% 45.25% +17.2 9
2018-11-09 @ Tubize L 0-2 1520 1411 45.25% 24.51% 30.25% -17.2 19
2018-11-16 Union SG L 1-2 1520 1571 38.04% 24.78% 37.18% -7.5 15
2018-11-16 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1571 1520 37.18% 24.78% 38.04% +7.5 27
2018-11-17 Lommel W 3-2 1679 1531 62.58% 21.38% 16.04% +3.4 33
2018-11-17 @ Mechelen L 2-3 1531 1679 16.04% 21.38% 62.58% -3.3 19
2018-11-17 Roeselare W 3-2 1428 1451 42.02% 24.69% 33.29% +6.4 12
2018-11-17 @ Tubize L 2-3 1451 1428 33.29% 24.69% 42.02% -6.4 13
2018-11-18 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1503 1546 39.21% 24.77% 36.02% -7.7 19
2018-11-18 @ Westerlo W 2-1 1546 1503 36.02% 24.77% 39.21% +7.7 27
2018-11-23 Mechelen D 0-0 1445 1682 17.42% 21.94% 60.64% +2.2 14
2018-11-23 @ Roeselare D 0-0 1682 1445 60.64% 21.94% 17.42% -2.2 34
2018-11-24 Tubize W 1-0 1528 1435 56.70% 22.90% 20.40% +4.7 22
2018-11-24 @ Lommel L 0-1 1435 1528 20.40% 22.90% 56.70% -4.7 12
2018-11-24 Westerlo D 0-0 1579 1495 55.65% 23.12% 21.23% -1.7 28
2018-11-24 @ Union SG D 0-0 1495 1579 21.23% 23.12% 55.65% +1.7 20
2018-11-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-2 1553 1513 50.49% 23.97% 25.54% +5.2 30
2018-11-25 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 2-3 1513 1553 25.54% 23.97% 50.49% -5.2 15
2018-11-30 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1680 1559 59.85% 22.15% 18.00% -1.9 35
2018-11-30 @ Mechelen D 1-1 1559 1680 18.00% 22.15% 59.85% +1.9 31
2018-12-01 Lommel W 3-1 1508 1532 41.77% 24.70% 33.53% +11.8 18
2018-12-01 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-3 1532 1508 33.53% 24.70% 41.77% -11.8 22
2018-12-01 Roeselare W 2-0 1497 1447 51.60% 23.82% 24.58% +10.5 23
2018-12-01 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1447 1497 24.58% 23.82% 51.60% -10.5 14
2018-12-02 Union SG W 2-0 1430 1577 25.76% 24.00% 50.24% +18.7 15
2018-12-02 @ Tubize L 0-2 1577 1430 50.24% 24.00% 25.76% -18.7 28
2018-12-04 Lommel L 1-2 1519 1521 45.00% 24.52% 30.47% -8.5 18
2018-12-04 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1521 1519 30.47% 24.52% 45.00% +8.6 25
2018-12-07 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1437 1511 34.80% 24.74% 40.45% +13.6 17
2018-12-07 @ Roeselare L 1-3 1511 1437 40.45% 24.74% 34.80% -13.6 18
2018-12-08 Mechelen L 1-3 1507 1678 23.25% 23.57% 53.18% -8.7 23
2018-12-08 @ Westerlo W 3-1 1678 1507 53.18% 23.57% 23.25% +8.7 38
2018-12-08 Tubize W 5-2 1560 1449 58.79% 22.42% 18.79% +8.8 34
2018-12-08 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 2-5 1449 1560 18.79% 22.42% 58.79% -8.8 15
2018-12-09 Union SG L 0-2 1529 1558 41.16% 24.72% 34.12% -15.9 25
2018-12-09 @ Lommel W 2-0 1558 1529 34.12% 24.72% 41.16% +15.9 31
2018-12-14 Mechelen L 1-3 1497 1687 21.43% 23.16% 55.41% -8.1 18
2018-12-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1687 1497 55.41% 23.16% 21.43% +8.1 41
2018-12-15 Roeselare L 0-1 1513 1450 53.22% 23.56% 23.22% -10.4 25
2018-12-15 @ Lommel W 1-0 1450 1513 23.22% 23.56% 53.22% +10.4 20
2018-12-15 Westerlo D 0-0 1440 1499 36.96% 24.78% 38.26% +0.1 16
2018-12-15 @ Tubize D 0-0 1499 1440 38.26% 24.78% 36.96% -0.1 24
2018-12-16 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1574 1569 45.85% 24.46% 29.69% -0.7 32
2018-12-16 @ Union SG D 1-1 1569 1574 29.69% 24.46% 45.85% +0.7 35
2018-12-21 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-0 1499 1489 46.46% 24.41% 29.13% -0.8 25
2018-12-21 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1489 1499 29.13% 24.41% 46.46% +0.8 19
2018-12-22 Lommel W 3-0 1570 1503 53.72% 23.48% 22.80% +14.3 38
2018-12-22 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-3 1503 1570 22.80% 23.48% 53.72% -14.3 25
2018-12-22 Tubize W 3-1 1695 1440 72.22% 17.73% 10.06% +3.7 44
2018-12-22 @ Mechelen L 1-3 1440 1695 10.06% 17.73% 72.22% -3.7 16
2018-12-23 Union SG D 1-1 1461 1574 29.74% 24.47% 45.80% +0.7 21
2018-12-23 @ Roeselare D 1-1 1574 1461 45.80% 24.47% 29.74% -0.7 33
2019-01-11 Westerlo W 2-1 1488 1498 43.91% 24.60% 31.49% +6.5 28
2019-01-11 @ Lommel L 1-2 1498 1488 31.49% 24.60% 43.91% -6.5 25
2019-01-12 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1461 1584 28.52% 24.35% 47.13% -6.0 21
2019-01-12 @ Roeselare W 2-1 1584 1461 47.13% 24.35% 28.52% +6.0 41
2019-01-13 Mechelen L 1-2 1573 1699 28.16% 24.31% 47.52% -5.9 33
2019-01-13 @ Union SG W 2-1 1699 1573 47.52% 24.31% 28.16% +5.9 47
2019-01-13 Tubize L 0-2 1490 1436 52.07% 23.74% 24.18% -19.3 19
2019-01-13 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-0 1436 1490 24.18% 23.74% 52.07% +19.3 19
2019-01-18 Roeselare D 2-2 1705 1455 71.76% 17.93% 10.31% -2.1 48
2019-01-18 @ Mechelen D 2-2 1455 1705 10.31% 17.93% 71.76% +2.1 22
2019-01-19 Lommel D 0-0 1456 1495 39.74% 24.76% 35.50% -0.2 20
2019-01-19 @ Tubize D 0-0 1495 1456 35.50% 24.76% 39.74% +0.2 29
2019-01-19 Westerlo D 1-1 1590 1491 57.38% 22.75% 19.87% -1.7 42
2019-01-19 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1491 1590 19.87% 22.75% 57.38% +1.7 26
2019-01-20 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1567 1471 57.10% 22.81% 20.09% +4.4 36
2019-01-20 @ Union SG L 1-2 1471 1567 20.09% 22.81% 57.10% -4.4 19
2019-01-25 Tubize L 0-1 1458 1455 45.46% 24.49% 30.05% -9.1 22
2019-01-25 @ Roeselare W 1-0 1455 1458 30.05% 24.49% 45.46% +9.1 23
2019-01-26 Mechelen D 0-0 1589 1703 29.60% 24.45% 45.95% +0.8 43
2019-01-26 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1703 1589 45.95% 24.45% 29.60% -0.8 49
2019-01-26 Union SG W 2-0 1493 1571 34.22% 24.73% 41.05% +15.9 29
2019-01-26 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1571 1493 41.05% 24.73% 34.22% -15.9 36
2019-01-27 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 2-3 1495 1466 48.99% 24.16% 26.85% -8.7 29
2019-01-27 @ Lommel W 3-2 1466 1495 26.85% 24.16% 48.99% +8.7 22
2019-02-01 Roeselare L 0-1 1475 1448 48.68% 24.19% 27.13% -9.7 22
2019-02-01 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-0 1448 1475 27.13% 24.19% 48.68% +9.7 25
2019-02-02 Westerlo W 3-0 1702 1509 66.88% 19.93% 13.19% +8.4 52
2019-02-02 @ Mechelen L 0-3 1509 1702 13.19% 19.93% 66.88% -8.4 29
2019-02-03 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-3 1465 1589 28.31% 24.33% 47.37% -10.3 23
2019-02-03 @ Tubize W 3-1 1589 1465 47.37% 24.33% 28.31% +10.3 46
2019-02-06 Lommel W 1-0 1555 1486 53.95% 23.44% 22.62% +5.2 39
2019-02-06 @ Union SG L 0-1 1486 1555 22.62% 23.44% 53.95% -5.2 29
2019-02-08 Tubize W 1-0 1501 1454 51.17% 23.88% 24.95% +5.7 32
2019-02-08 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1454 1501 24.95% 23.88% 51.17% -5.7 23
2019-02-09 Lommel W 4-2 1458 1481 42.00% 24.69% 33.31% +10.5 28
2019-02-09 @ Roeselare L 2-4 1481 1458 33.31% 24.69% 42.00% -10.5 29
2019-02-09 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1710 1465 71.40% 18.09% 10.51% +2.3 55
2019-02-09 @ Mechelen L 1-2 1465 1710 10.51% 18.09% 71.40% -2.3 22
2019-02-10 Union SG W 3-1 1600 1561 50.26% 24.00% 25.74% +9.5 49
2019-02-10 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-3 1561 1600 25.74% 24.00% 50.26% -9.5 39
2019-02-15 Mechelen L 0-3 1449 1712 15.53% 21.15% 63.32% -9.9 23
2019-02-15 @ Tubize W 3-0 1712 1449 63.32% 21.15% 15.53% +9.9 58
2019-02-16 Roeselare L 1-2 1551 1469 55.54% 23.14% 21.33% -10.2 39
2019-02-16 @ Union SG W 2-1 1469 1551 21.33% 23.14% 55.54% +10.2 31
2019-02-16 Westerlo W 3-0 1463 1506 39.17% 24.77% 36.06% +20.9 25
2019-02-16 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-3 1506 1463 36.06% 24.77% 39.17% -20.9 32
2019-02-17 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-2 1471 1609 26.73% 24.14% 49.13% -11.3 29
2019-02-17 @ Lommel W 2-0 1609 1471 49.13% 24.14% 26.73% +11.3 52
2019-02-22 Lommel D 2-2 1485 1459 48.60% 24.20% 27.20% -0.7 33
2019-02-22 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1459 1485 27.20% 24.20% 48.60% +0.7 30
2019-02-23 Roeselare D 1-1 1620 1479 61.94% 21.57% 16.49% -2.1 53
2019-02-23 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1479 1620 16.49% 21.57% 61.94% +2.1 32
2019-02-23 Union SG L 0-5 1722 1541 65.82% 20.31% 13.87% -55.2 58
2019-02-23 @ Mechelen W 5-0 1541 1722 13.87% 20.31% 65.82% +55.2 42
2019-02-24 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-3 1439 1484 38.91% 24.77% 36.32% -13.2 23
2019-02-24 @ Tubize W 3-1 1484 1439 36.32% 24.77% 38.91% +13.2 28
2019-03-03 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1497 1618 28.71% 24.37% 46.92% +0.6 29
2019-03-03 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1618 1497 46.92% 24.37% 28.71% -0.6 54
2019-03-03 Mechelen D 1-1 1460 1667 19.89% 22.75% 57.36% +1.7 31
2019-03-03 @ Lommel D 1-1 1667 1460 57.36% 22.75% 19.89% -1.7 59
2019-03-03 Tubize W 1-0 1596 1426 64.80% 20.66% 14.54% +3.4 45
2019-03-03 @ Union SG L 0-1 1426 1596 14.54% 20.66% 64.80% -3.4 23
2019-03-03 Westerlo D 1-1 1481 1485 44.67% 24.55% 30.78% -0.6 33
2019-03-03 @ Roeselare D 1-1 1485 1481 30.78% 24.55% 44.67% +0.6 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2019-03-22 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-2 1462 1498 40.23% 24.75% 35.02% -15.6 0
2019-03-22 @ Lommel W 2-0 1498 1462 35.02% 24.75% 40.23% +15.6 3
2019-03-24 Roeselare D 1-1 1422 1480 37.05% 24.78% 38.18% +0.0 1
2019-03-24 @ Tubize D 1-1 1480 1422 38.18% 24.78% 37.05% -0.0 1
2019-03-29 Tubize L 0-1 1513 1422 56.50% 22.94% 20.56% -11.0 3
2019-03-29 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-0 1422 1513 20.56% 22.94% 56.50% +11.0 4
2019-03-30 Cercle Brugge W 3-1 1600 1581 47.69% 24.30% 28.01% +10.2 3
2019-03-30 @ Union SG L 1-3 1581 1600 28.01% 24.30% 47.69% -10.2 0
2019-03-31 Lommel L 0-1 1480 1446 49.64% 24.08% 26.28% -9.8 1
2019-03-31 @ Roeselare W 1-0 1446 1480 26.28% 24.08% 49.64% +9.8 3
2019-03-31 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1485 1612 28.01% 24.30% 47.69% +0.8 1
2019-03-31 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1612 1485 47.69% 24.30% 28.01% -0.8 1
2019-04-02 Union SG L 0-2 1709 1610 57.39% 22.74% 19.86% -21.0 0
2019-04-02 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1610 1709 19.86% 22.74% 57.39% +21.0 6
2019-04-03 Sint-Truiden L 1-2 1612 1769 24.66% 23.83% 51.51% -5.3 1
2019-04-03 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1769 1612 51.51% 23.83% 24.66% +5.3 3
2019-04-03 Westerlo L 0-3 1621 1486 61.29% 21.75% 16.95% -32.3 0
2019-04-03 @ Eupen W 3-0 1486 1621 16.95% 21.75% 61.29% +32.3 4
2019-04-05 Lommel D 1-1 1433 1456 42.05% 24.69% 33.26% -0.4 5
2019-04-05 @ Tubize D 1-1 1456 1433 33.26% 24.69% 42.05% +0.4 4
2019-04-06 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1631 1606 48.44% 24.22% 27.34% +5.8 3
2019-04-06 @ Oostende L 1-2 1606 1631 27.34% 24.22% 48.44% -5.8 1
2019-04-06 Sint-Truiden D 2-2 1518 1774 16.09% 21.39% 62.52% +1.6 5
2019-04-06 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1774 1518 62.52% 21.39% 16.09% -1.6 4
2019-04-06 Waasland-Beveren W 5-1 1631 1638 44.21% 24.58% 31.21% +20.3 9
2019-04-06 @ Union SG L 1-5 1638 1631 31.21% 24.58% 44.21% -20.3 0
2019-04-07 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1470 1502 40.78% 24.73% 34.49% -0.2 2
2019-04-07 @ Roeselare D 2-2 1502 1470 34.49% 24.73% 40.78% +0.2 4
2019-04-12 Tubize W 3-0 1456 1433 48.30% 24.23% 27.47% +16.8 7
2019-04-12 @ Lommel L 0-3 1433 1456 27.47% 24.23% 48.30% -16.8 5
2019-04-13 Eupen W 2-0 1600 1583 47.55% 24.31% 28.14% +11.8 4
2019-04-13 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-2 1583 1600 28.14% 24.31% 47.55% -11.8 0
2019-04-13 Union SG L 0-1 1766 1651 59.14% 22.33% 18.53% -11.4 0
2019-04-13 @ Kortrijk W 1-0 1651 1766 18.53% 22.33% 59.14% +11.4 12
2019-04-14 Roeselare W 3-0 1502 1470 49.42% 24.11% 26.47% +16.3 7
2019-04-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-3 1470 1502 26.47% 24.11% 49.42% -16.3 2
2019-04-14 Westerlo W 2-0 1712 1520 66.79% 19.96% 13.25% +5.8 3
2019-04-14 @ Charleroi L 0-2 1520 1712 13.25% 19.96% 66.79% -5.8 5
2019-04-19 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-3 1416 1519 31.00% 24.56% 44.43% -18.6 5
2019-04-19 @ Tubize W 3-0 1519 1416 44.43% 24.56% 31.00% +18.6 10
2019-04-20 Oostende D 0-0 1514 1633 29.04% 24.40% 46.56% +0.8 6
2019-04-20 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1633 1514 46.56% 24.40% 29.04% -0.8 4
2019-04-20 Zulte Waregem D 2-2 1663 1701 39.84% 24.76% 35.40% -0.1 13
2019-04-20 @ Union SG D 2-2 1701 1663 35.40% 24.76% 39.84% +0.1 1
2019-04-21 Roeselare L 0-1 1473 1454 47.75% 24.29% 27.96% -9.5 7
2019-04-21 @ Lommel W 1-0 1454 1473 27.96% 24.29% 47.75% +9.5 5
2019-04-22 Beerschot Wilrijk W 4-0 1718 1612 58.09% 22.59% 19.33% +16.1 6
2019-04-22 @ Charleroi L 0-4 1612 1718 19.33% 22.59% 58.09% -16.1 4
2019-04-26 Lommel W 1-0 1537 1464 54.49% 23.34% 22.17% +5.1 13
2019-04-26 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-1 1464 1537 22.17% 23.34% 54.49% -5.1 7
2019-04-26 Tubize W 4-0 1463 1397 53.58% 23.50% 22.92% +18.8 8
2019-04-26 @ Roeselare L 0-4 1397 1463 22.92% 23.50% 53.58% -18.8 5
2019-04-27 Eupen W 1-0 1515 1573 37.12% 24.78% 38.10% +8.0 9
2019-04-27 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1573 1515 38.10% 24.78% 37.12% -8.0 0
2019-04-27 Union SG W 3-2 1619 1662 39.10% 24.77% 36.13% +6.8 3
2019-04-27 @ Waasland-Beveren L 2-3 1662 1619 36.13% 24.77% 39.10% -6.8 13
2019-04-28 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1775 1596 65.55% 20.41% 14.05% -1.8 5
2019-04-28 @ Sint-Truiden D 2-2 1596 1775 14.05% 20.41% 65.55% +1.8 5
2019-05-04 Union SG L 2-3 1572 1656 33.53% 24.70% 41.77% -6.5 0
2019-05-04 @ Cercle Brugge W 3-2 1656 1572 41.77% 24.70% 33.53% +6.5 16
2019-05-04 Westerlo W 3-2 1598 1523 54.66% 23.31% 22.03% +4.5 8
2019-05-04 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 2-3 1523 1598 22.03% 23.31% 54.66% -4.5 9
2019-05-11 Charleroi L 0-3 1603 1748 25.99% 24.04% 49.98% -16.1 8
2019-05-11 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-0 1748 1603 49.98% 24.04% 25.99% +16.0 9
2019-05-11 Royal Excel Mouscron D 3-3 1662 1685 41.98% 24.69% 33.33% -0.2 17
2019-05-11 @ Union SG D 3-3 1685 1662 33.33% 24.69% 41.98% +0.2 1
2019-05-11 Westerlo L 0-3 1625 1518 58.23% 22.55% 19.22% -30.9 4
2019-05-11 @ Oostende W 3-0 1518 1625 19.22% 22.55% 58.23% +30.9 12
2019-05-14 Kortrijk W 2-0 1662 1802 26.52% 24.11% 49.37% +18.5 20
2019-05-14 @ Union SG L 0-2 1802 1662 49.37% 24.11% 26.52% -18.5 0
2019-05-15 Beerschot Wilrijk W 1-0 1574 1586 43.44% 24.62% 31.94% +6.9 3
2019-05-15 @ Eupen L 0-1 1586 1574 31.94% 24.62% 43.44% -6.9 8
2019-05-15 Charleroi L 0-2 1549 1764 19.27% 22.57% 58.16% -8.5 12
2019-05-15 @ Westerlo W 2-0 1764 1549 58.16% 22.57% 19.27% +8.5 12
2019-05-17 Union SG W 2-1 1696 1680 47.22% 24.34% 28.44% +6.0 4
2019-05-17 @ Zulte Waregem L 1-2 1680 1696 28.44% 24.34% 47.22% -6.0 20
2019-05-18 Oostende L 1-2 1580 1595 43.03% 24.64% 32.33% -8.2 8
2019-05-18 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1595 1580 32.33% 24.64% 43.03% +8.2 7
2019-05-18 Westerlo W 2-1 1756 1541 68.85% 19.17% 11.99% +2.6 8
2019-05-18 @ Sint-Truiden L 1-2 1541 1756 11.99% 19.17% 68.85% -2.6 12

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2019-03-09 Mechelen D 0-0 1618 1665 38.54% 24.78% 36.69% -0.1 0-0-1
2019-03-09 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1665 1618 36.69% 24.78% 38.54% +0.1 0-0-1
2019-03-16 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1666 1618 51.38% 23.85% 24.78% +5.3 1-0-1
2019-03-16 @ Mechelen L 1-2 1618 1666 24.78% 23.85% 51.38% -5.3 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-02-23 13.87% Union SG 1541 5 @ Mechelen 1722 0
2 2019-03-29 20.56% Tubize 1422 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1513 0
3 2019-02-16 21.33% Roeselare 1469 2 @ Union SG 1551 1
4 2018-12-15 23.22% Roeselare 1450 1 @ Lommel 1513 0
5 2018-10-19 23.95% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1474 1 @ Westerlo 1530 0
6 2019-01-13 24.18% Tubize 1436 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1490 0
7 2018-08-17 24.74% Lommel 1537 2 @ Mechelen 1586 1
8 2018-08-18 24.85% Union SG 1497 3 @ Westerlo 1544 1
9 2018-12-02 25.76% @ Tubize 1430 2 Union SG 1577 0
10 2019-03-31 26.28% Lommel 1446 1 @ Roeselare 1480 0
11 2019-01-27 26.85% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1466 3 @ Lommel 1495 2
12 2018-10-28 26.86% Westerlo 1519 1 @ Lommel 1548 0
13 2019-02-01 27.13% Roeselare 1448 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1475 0
14 2018-09-22 27.80% Roeselare 1496 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1517 0
15 2018-09-22 27.96% Lommel 1531 3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1550 1
16 2019-04-21 27.96% Roeselare 1454 1 @ Lommel 1473 0
17 2018-09-01 28.19% Westerlo 1527 3 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1545 1
18 2018-09-29 28.33% Beerschot Wilrijk 1535 2 @ Westerlo 1551 1
19 2018-11-09 30.00% Beerschot Wilrijk 1537 2 @ Lommel 1540 1
20 2019-01-25 30.05% Tubize 1455 1 @ Roeselare 1458 0
21 2018-11-09 30.25% @ Tubize 1411 2 Westerlo 1520 0
22 2018-12-04 30.47% Lommel 1521 2 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1519 1
23 2018-11-09 30.86% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1488 4 @ Roeselare 1484 0
24 2018-12-09 34.12% Union SG 1558 2 @ Lommel 1529 0
25 2019-01-26 34.22% @ Westerlo 1493 2 Union SG 1571 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-02-23 55.22 Union SG 5 1541 13.87% @ Mechelen 0 1722 65.82% 20.31%
2 2018-11-09 32.19 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 1488 30.86% @ Roeselare 0 1484 44.59% 24.55%
3 2018-09-29 22.53 Mechelen 3 1585 35.42% @ Lommel 0 1546 39.82% 24.76%
4 2019-02-16 20.89 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1463 39.17% Westerlo 0 1506 36.06% 24.77%
5 2019-01-13 19.31 Tubize 2 1436 24.18% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1490 52.07% 23.74%
6 2019-04-26 18.81 @ Roeselare 4 1463 53.58% Tubize 0 1397 22.92% 23.50%
7 2018-12-02 18.73 @ Tubize 2 1430 25.76% Union SG 0 1577 50.24% 24.00%
8 2019-04-19 18.57 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1519 44.43% @ Tubize 0 1416 31.00% 24.56%
9 2018-09-22 18.00 Roeselare 2 1496 27.80% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0 1517 47.93% 24.27%
10 2018-11-04 17.55 Mechelen 3 1657 46.70% @ Westerlo 0 1538 28.91% 24.39%
11 2018-11-09 17.17 @ Tubize 2 1411 30.25% Westerlo 0 1520 45.25% 24.51%
12 2019-04-12 16.82 @ Lommel 3 1456 48.30% Tubize 0 1433 27.47% 24.23%
13 2018-08-18 16.51 Union SG 3 1497 24.85% @ Westerlo 1 1544 51.29% 23.86%
14 2019-04-14 16.31 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1502 49.42% Roeselare 0 1470 26.47% 24.11%
15 2018-12-09 15.92 Union SG 2 1558 34.12% @ Lommel 0 1529 41.16% 24.72%
16 2019-01-26 15.89 @ Westerlo 2 1493 34.22% Union SG 0 1571 41.05% 24.73%
17 2019-03-22 15.64 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 1498 35.02% @ Lommel 0 1462 40.23% 24.75%
18 2018-09-22 15.54 Lommel 3 1531 27.96% @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1 1550 47.75% 24.29%
19 2018-09-01 15.47 Westerlo 3 1527 28.19% @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1545 47.50% 24.32%
20 2018-09-21 15.44 Union SG 2 1520 35.65% @ Tubize 0 1480 39.59% 24.76%
21 2018-09-16 15.29 @ Westerlo 4 1548 45.40% Lommel 1 1546 30.11% 24.50%
22 2018-12-22 14.33 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1570 53.72% Lommel 0 1503 22.80% 23.48%
23 2018-10-21 14.14 @ Mechelen 3 1619 54.13% Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1548 22.46% 23.40%
24 2018-10-20 13.73 Lommel 2 1535 41.35% @ Tubize 0 1454 33.94% 24.72%
25 2018-12-07 13.59 @ Roeselare 3 1437 34.80% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1 1511 40.45% 24.74%