Home / Leagues / Belgium / First Division B / 2017-18
‹ ›

2017-18 First Division B Season

124 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

Cercle Brugge

via playoff

Relegated

Lierse

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Cercle Brugge

12.73 points above expected

50 points · 37.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Westerlo

9.96 points below expected

27 points · 36.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cercle Brugge Promoted 28 14 8 6 50 50 34 +16 37.27 +12.73
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 28 12 11 5 47 43 27 +16 40.63 +6.37
3 Beerschot Wilrijk 28 12 10 6 46 42 27 +15 45.46 +0.54
4 Lierse Relegated 28 11 6 11 39 35 47 -12 41.97 -2.97
5 Roeselare 28 9 8 11 35 26 43 -17 35.28 -0.28
6 Union SG 28 8 8 12 32 32 33 -1 37.61 -5.61
7 Westerlo 28 5 12 11 27 31 35 -4 36.96 -9.96
8 Tubize 28 4 11 13 23 21 34 -13 30.60 -7.60
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Westerlo 6 3 3 0 12 6 1 +5 — —
2 Roeselare 6 3 3 0 12 5 1 +4 — —
3 Union SG 6 1 1 4 4 2 6 -4 — —
4 Tubize 6 0 3 3 3 3 8 -5 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Cercle Brugge 3
Beerschot Wilrijk 2

Leg 1: Cercle Brugge 3-1 Beerschot Wilrijk

Leg 2: Beerschot Wilrijk 1-0 Cercle Brugge

Sim: 4.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cercle Brugge 1578 50 37.27 +12.73 97.3% 15 26 33 37 42 48 66
Beerschot Wilrijk 1563 46 45.46 +0.54 56.1% 19 34 41 45 50 57 70
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1551 47 40.63 +6.37 84.3% 16 30 36 41 45 52 63
Westerlo 1551 27 36.96 -9.96 7.4% 9 26 33 37 41 48 68
Union SG 1501 32 37.61 -5.61 22.7% 15 27 33 37 42 49 61
Roeselare 1494 35 35.28 -0.28 52.0% 14 25 31 35 40 46 63
Lierse 1476 39 41.97 -2.97 36.5% 17 31 37 42 47 53 69
Tubize 1436 23 30.60 -7.60 13.8% 9 20 26 30 35 41 54

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BW CB LIE OL ROE TUB US WES
Beerschot Wilrijk —
1-0-3
6.88
1-2-1
5.86
0-3-1
6.02
3-1-0
6.56
4-0-0
7.25
3-0-1
6.45
0-4-0
6.53
Cercle Brugge
3-0-1
4.08
 —
2-0-2
4.83
1-1-2
5.30
2-1-1
5.81
1-3-0
6.33
2-2-0
5.46
3-1-0
5.51
Lierse
1-2-1
5.07
2-0-2
6.08
 —
1-1-2
5.57
1-1-2
6.24
2-1-1
6.86
2-0-2
5.92
2-1-1
6.15
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
1-3-0
4.89
2-1-1
5.59
2-1-1
5.32
 —
1-2-1
6.04
3-1-0
6.80
2-2-0
5.87
1-1-2
6.10
Roeselare
0-1-3
4.39
1-1-2
5.12
2-1-1
4.67
1-2-1
4.90
 —
2-1-1
5.92
2-0-2
5.03
1-2-1
5.28
Tubize
0-0-4
3.73
0-3-1
4.61
1-1-2
4.09
0-1-3
4.15
1-1-2
4.98
 —
1-3-0
4.50
1-2-1
4.56
Union SG
1-0-3
4.47
0-2-2
5.44
2-0-2
4.99
0-2-2
5.05
2-0-2
5.87
0-3-1
6.43
 —
3-1-0
5.30
Westerlo
0-4-0
4.40
0-1-3
5.41
1-1-2
4.77
2-1-1
4.83
1-2-1
5.61
1-2-1
6.37
0-1-3
5.60
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +9.5
Allowed 0.08 -3.9
Differential 0.60 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.29%9.68%3.63%2.82%2.42%0.81%30.65%
19.68%15.32%8.87%2.02%0.81%0.40%37.10%
23.63%8.87%7.26%1.61%——21.37%
32.82%2.02%1.61%———6.45%
42.42%0.81%————3.23%
5+0.81%0.40%————1.21%
Total30.65%37.10%21.37%6.45%3.23%1.21%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.19 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.75
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 124

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%—3.57%3.57%—21.43%
117.86%14.29%7.14%———39.29%
2—7.14%10.71%3.57%——21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total46.43%25.00%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.96 +0.54
SD 1.32 1.14 1.95
CV 0.88 1.18 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
17.14%17.86%3.57%——3.57%32.14%
27.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
37.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+———————
Total32.14%39.29%17.86%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.21 +0.57
SD 1.23 1.45 2.08
CV 0.69 1.19 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%—3.57%3.57%25.00%
110.71%7.14%7.14%—3.57%—28.57%
23.57%21.43%14.29%3.57%——42.86%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%35.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.68 -0.43
SD 0.89 1.33 1.79
CV 0.71 0.80 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%————17.86%
110.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%——35.71%
27.14%14.29%14.29%———35.71%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total28.57%50.00%17.86%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.96 +0.57
SD 1.37 0.79 1.53
CV 0.89 0.82 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.59%5.88%2.94%2.94%8.82%2.94%44.12%
111.76%8.82%5.88%—2.94%—29.41%
22.94%11.76%2.94%———17.65%
3—8.82%————8.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.29%35.29%11.76%2.94%11.76%2.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.29 -0.38
SD 1.00 1.45 1.89
CV 1.09 1.12 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.71%17.65%5.88%—2.94%—41.18%
1—26.47%14.71%5.88%——47.06%
22.94%8.82%————11.76%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total17.65%52.94%20.59%5.88%2.94%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 1.24 -0.53
SD 0.68 0.92 1.11
CV 0.96 0.75 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.82%17.65%5.88%5.88%——38.24%
111.76%14.71%14.71%2.94%——44.12%
2——2.94%———2.94%
35.88%—2.94%———8.82%
42.94%2.94%————5.88%
5+———————
Total29.41%35.29%26.47%8.82%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.15 -0.15
SD 1.15 0.96 1.64
CV 1.15 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.59%5.88%2.94%5.88%——35.29%
18.82%14.71%11.76%2.94%——38.24%
25.88%2.94%8.82%2.94%——20.59%
3———————
42.94%—————2.94%
5+2.94%—————2.94%
Total41.18%23.53%23.53%11.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.06 +0.03
SD 1.26 1.07 1.71
CV 1.16 1.01 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 34

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cercle Brugge 50 37.27 +12.73
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 47 40.63 +6.37
3 Beerschot Wilrijk 46 45.46 +0.54
4 Roeselare 35 35.28 -0.28
5 Lierse 39 41.97 -2.97

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Westerlo 27 36.96 -9.96
2 Tubize 23 30.60 -7.60
3 Union SG 32 37.61 -5.61
4 Lierse 39 41.97 -2.97
5 Roeselare 35 35.28 -0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lierse 7 Oct 21 – Dec 2 1 in 501
2 Cercle Brugge 6 Dec 8 – Jan 27 1 in 335
3 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4 Sep 30 – Oct 13 1 in 32
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 3 Aug 20 – Sep 10 1 in 14
5 Tubize 2 Dec 17 – Jan 7 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Westerlo 4 Oct 28 – Nov 18 1 in 63
2 Roeselare 4 Nov 25 – Dec 17 1 in 52
3 Lierse 3 Feb 3 – Feb 16 1 in 37
4 Union SG 3 Oct 23 – Nov 5 1 in 25
5 Tubize 4 Jan 10 – Jan 27 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cercle Brugge 12 Nov 24 – Feb 25 1 in 111
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 11 Aug 19 – Oct 28 1 in 107
3 Westerlo 7 Jan 12 – Feb 25 1 in 45
4 Beerschot Wilrijk 9 Aug 4 – Oct 4 1 in 27
5 Tubize 5 Nov 19 – Jan 7 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Westerlo 10 Oct 4 – Dec 2 1 in 66
2 Lierse 6 Aug 5 – Sep 16 1 in 37
3 Tubize 8 Jan 10 – Feb 25 1 in 11
4 Cercle Brugge 4 Feb 2 – Feb 25 1 in 11
5 Beerschot Wilrijk 4 Feb 4 – Feb 25 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Cercle Brugge7.46%10.71%13.50%14.80%15.08%15.06%13.56%9.83%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven16.02%17.85%17.25%14.62%12.29%10.37%7.50%4.10%
Beerschot Wilrijk39.31%22.31%14.54%9.35%6.44%4.55%2.65%0.85%
Lierse18.92%19.48%16.71%14.32%11.76%9.10%6.27%3.44%
Roeselare3.88%6.87%9.03%11.95%14.56%16.48%18.78%18.45%
Union SG7.73%11.20%13.05%14.37%15.36%14.94%13.58%9.77%
Westerlo5.85%9.68%12.00%14.57%15.12%16.43%15.36%10.99%
Tubize0.83%1.90%3.92%6.02%9.39%13.07%22.30%42.57%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.29%
Slight Edge
38.71%33.87%27.42%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 39.39 Elo pts.
274 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Open
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
Cercle Brugge, 5th of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.36 * Some Luck: 5.36 to 8.04 * Lucky: 8.04 to 10.72 * Wild Swing: 10.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.37 * Close: 1.37 to 2.05 * Off: 2.05 to 2.73 * Way Off: 2.73 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.02 points
Some Luck
06.7017
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.75
Close
01.714
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.29%
Cercle Brugge
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.37%
Westerlo
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.24
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
67%
Even
50%69%100%
Close Games
Expected
74%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.22
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.12
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.40
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.95
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.043
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Beerschot Wilrijk — 100% — —
Cercle Brugge — 100% — —
Lierse 27.13% 38.40% 31.03% 3.44%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 30.16% 33.87% 31.87% 4.10%
Roeselare 49.82% 10.75% 20.98% 18.45%
Tubize 44.76% 2.73% 9.94% 42.57%
Union SG 43.88% 18.93% 27.42% 9.77%
Westerlo 46.91% 15.53% 26.57% 10.99%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkCercle BruggeLierseOud-Heverlee LeuvenRoeselareTubizeUnion SGWesterlo
Beerschot Wilrijk20.0%5.00%75.0%8.00%46.7%15.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%88.9%9.00%54.5%11.00%
Cercle Brugge80.0%5.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%
Lierse25.0%8.00%33.3%3.00%57.1%7.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%75.0%4.00%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven53.3%15.00%100.0%2.00%42.9%7.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Roeselare25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Tubize0.0%3.00%100.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Union SG11.1%9.00%50.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%
Westerlo45.5%11.00%0.0%3.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Beerschot Wilrijk 51.72%
Cercle Brugge 48.28%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Beerschot WilrijkCercle Brugge
Beerschot Wilrijk51.7%100.00%
Cercle Brugge48.3%100.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for relegation playoff
Roeselare 100% —
Tubize — 100%
Union SG 100% —
Westerlo 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2017-08-04 Union SG W 3-0 1549 1524 45.86% 27.02% 27.12% +12.0 3
2017-08-04 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-3 1524 1549 27.12% 27.02% 45.86% -12.0 0
2017-08-05 Lierse D 2-2 1505 1586 31.25% 27.68% 41.07% +0.2 1
2017-08-05 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1586 1505 41.07% 27.68% 31.25% -0.2 1
2017-08-05 Roeselare L 1-3 1495 1537 36.41% 27.92% 35.67% -9.0 0
2017-08-05 @ Tubize W 3-1 1537 1495 35.67% 27.92% 36.41% +9.0 3
2017-08-06 Cercle Brugge L 1-2 1548 1479 51.73% 25.60% 22.67% -6.8 0
2017-08-06 @ Westerlo W 2-1 1479 1548 22.67% 25.60% 51.73% +6.8 3
2017-08-11 Union SG W 2-0 1486 1512 38.68% 27.85% 33.46% +9.7 6
2017-08-11 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-2 1512 1486 33.46% 27.85% 38.68% -9.8 0
2017-08-12 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 3-1 1546 1506 48.04% 26.57% 25.39% +6.8 6
2017-08-12 @ Roeselare L 1-3 1506 1546 25.39% 26.57% 48.04% -6.8 1
2017-08-12 Tubize D 1-1 1541 1486 49.93% 26.10% 23.96% -0.8 1
2017-08-12 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1486 1541 23.96% 26.10% 49.93% +0.8 1
2017-08-13 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1585 1561 45.79% 27.03% 27.18% -0.4 2
2017-08-13 @ Lierse D 2-2 1561 1585 27.18% 27.03% 45.79% +0.4 4
2017-08-18 Roeselare D 2-2 1585 1553 46.82% 26.83% 26.35% -0.5 3
2017-08-18 @ Lierse D 2-2 1553 1585 26.35% 26.83% 46.82% +0.5 7
2017-08-19 Cercle Brugge W 7-1 1499 1496 42.89% 27.48% 29.63% +20.3 4
2017-08-19 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-7 1496 1499 29.63% 27.48% 42.89% -20.3 6
2017-08-19 Westerlo W 3-0 1503 1540 37.09% 27.91% 35.00% +14.6 3
2017-08-19 @ Union SG L 0-3 1540 1503 35.00% 27.91% 37.09% -14.6 1
2017-08-20 Tubize W 1-0 1561 1487 52.49% 25.37% 22.14% +3.6 7
2017-08-20 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1487 1561 22.14% 25.37% 52.49% -3.6 1
2017-09-01 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-4 1554 1565 40.81% 27.71% 31.48% -21.4 7
2017-09-01 @ Roeselare W 4-0 1565 1554 31.48% 27.71% 40.81% +21.4 10
2017-09-02 Lierse W 2-0 1475 1584 27.74% 27.15% 45.11% +12.2 9
2017-09-02 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-2 1584 1475 45.11% 27.15% 27.74% -12.2 3
2017-09-02 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1526 1519 43.35% 27.42% 29.23% -0.3 2
2017-09-02 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1519 1526 29.23% 27.42% 43.35% +0.3 5
2017-09-03 Union SG D 0-0 1483 1517 37.60% 27.90% 34.50% -0.1 2
2017-09-03 @ Tubize D 0-0 1517 1483 34.50% 27.90% 37.60% +0.1 4
2017-09-08 Tubize W 2-0 1519 1483 47.44% 26.70% 25.86% +7.9 8
2017-09-08 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-2 1483 1519 25.86% 26.70% 47.44% -7.9 2
2017-09-09 Roeselare W 4-0 1517 1532 40.35% 27.75% 31.91% +17.8 7
2017-09-09 @ Union SG L 0-4 1532 1517 31.91% 27.75% 40.35% -17.8 7
2017-09-09 Westerlo D 2-2 1572 1525 48.86% 26.38% 24.77% -0.5 4
2017-09-09 @ Lierse D 2-2 1525 1572 24.77% 26.38% 48.86% +0.5 3
2017-09-10 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1487 1587 28.91% 27.37% 43.72% -4.6 9
2017-09-10 @ Cercle Brugge W 1-0 1587 1487 43.72% 27.37% 28.91% +4.6 13
2017-09-15 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-0 1535 1527 43.53% 27.40% 29.08% -0.5 8
2017-09-15 @ Union SG D 0-0 1527 1535 29.08% 27.40% 43.53% +0.5 9
2017-09-16 Lierse W 2-0 1475 1572 29.21% 27.42% 43.37% +11.8 5
2017-09-16 @ Tubize L 0-2 1572 1475 43.37% 27.42% 29.21% -11.8 4
2017-09-16 Westerlo D 2-2 1591 1526 51.27% 25.74% 22.99% -0.6 14
2017-09-16 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1526 1591 22.99% 25.74% 51.27% +0.6 4
2017-09-17 Cercle Brugge W 2-1 1514 1483 46.79% 26.84% 26.37% +4.0 10
2017-09-17 @ Roeselare L 1-2 1483 1514 26.37% 26.84% 46.79% -4.0 9
2017-09-23 Tubize W 4-0 1479 1487 41.29% 27.66% 31.05% +17.5 12
2017-09-23 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-4 1487 1479 31.05% 27.66% 41.29% -17.5 5
2017-09-23 Union SG W 2-1 1560 1535 45.93% 27.00% 27.07% +4.1 7
2017-09-23 @ Lierse L 1-2 1535 1560 27.07% 27.00% 45.93% -4.1 8
2017-09-24 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1528 1590 33.56% 27.86% 38.58% +0.2 10
2017-09-24 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1590 1528 38.58% 27.86% 33.56% -0.2 15
2017-09-24 Roeselare W 4-0 1527 1518 43.58% 27.39% 29.04% +16.6 7
2017-09-24 @ Westerlo L 0-4 1518 1527 29.04% 27.39% 43.58% -16.6 10
2017-09-29 Cercle Brugge L 1-2 1531 1496 47.17% 26.76% 26.07% -6.3 8
2017-09-29 @ Union SG W 2-1 1496 1531 26.07% 26.76% 47.17% +6.3 15
2017-09-30 Roeselare W 2-0 1528 1502 46.06% 26.98% 26.96% +8.2 13
2017-09-30 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-2 1502 1528 26.96% 26.98% 46.06% -8.2 10
2017-09-30 Westerlo L 1-2 1469 1543 32.10% 27.76% 40.14% -4.7 5
2017-09-30 @ Tubize W 2-1 1543 1469 40.14% 27.76% 32.10% +4.7 10
2017-10-01 Lierse W 4-0 1590 1564 46.07% 26.98% 26.95% +15.6 18
2017-10-01 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-4 1564 1590 26.95% 26.98% 46.07% -15.6 7
2017-10-03 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-3 1503 1536 37.66% 27.89% 34.44% -15.4 15
2017-10-03 @ Cercle Brugge W 3-0 1536 1503 34.44% 27.89% 37.66% +15.4 16
2017-10-04 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1465 1606 24.34% 26.24% 49.43% -4.0 5
2017-10-04 @ Tubize W 1-0 1606 1465 49.43% 26.24% 24.34% +4.0 21
2017-10-04 Union SG L 0-3 1548 1524 45.70% 27.05% 27.26% -17.8 10
2017-10-04 @ Westerlo W 3-0 1524 1548 27.26% 27.05% 45.70% +17.8 11
2017-10-05 Lierse W 2-0 1494 1548 34.64% 27.90% 37.46% +10.6 13
2017-10-05 @ Roeselare L 0-2 1548 1494 37.46% 27.90% 34.64% -10.6 7
2017-10-07 Cercle Brugge L 0-3 1610 1487 58.50% 23.20% 18.31% -21.7 21
2017-10-07 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-0 1487 1610 18.31% 23.20% 58.50% +21.7 18
2017-10-08 Tubize D 1-1 1538 1461 52.80% 25.27% 21.92% -1.0 8
2017-10-08 @ Lierse D 1-1 1461 1538 21.92% 25.27% 52.80% +1.0 6
2017-10-08 Union SG W 1-0 1504 1542 37.05% 27.91% 35.04% +5.3 16
2017-10-08 @ Roeselare L 0-1 1542 1504 35.04% 27.91% 37.05% -5.3 11
2017-10-08 Westerlo W 2-1 1552 1530 45.44% 27.09% 27.47% +4.2 19
2017-10-08 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-2 1530 1552 27.47% 27.09% 45.44% -4.2 10
2017-10-13 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-2 1462 1556 29.52% 27.47% 43.02% -4.4 6
2017-10-13 @ Tubize W 2-1 1556 1462 43.02% 27.47% 29.52% +4.4 22
2017-10-14 Roeselare D 1-1 1509 1510 42.33% 27.55% 30.12% -0.4 19
2017-10-14 @ Cercle Brugge D 1-1 1510 1509 30.12% 27.55% 42.33% +0.4 17
2017-10-15 Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1526 1588 33.59% 27.86% 38.55% +0.2 11
2017-10-15 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1588 1526 38.55% 27.86% 33.59% -0.2 22
2017-10-16 Lierse W 3-2 1537 1537 42.42% 27.54% 30.04% +4.2 14
2017-10-16 @ Union SG L 2-3 1537 1537 30.04% 27.54% 42.42% -4.3 8
2017-10-21 Cercle Brugge W 3-2 1533 1508 45.80% 27.03% 27.17% +3.9 11
2017-10-21 @ Lierse L 2-3 1508 1533 27.17% 27.03% 45.80% -3.9 19
2017-10-21 Westerlo D 0-0 1510 1526 40.18% 27.76% 32.06% -0.3 18
2017-10-21 @ Roeselare D 0-0 1526 1510 32.06% 27.76% 40.18% +0.3 12
2017-10-22 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1588 1560 46.29% 26.94% 26.77% -0.4 23
2017-10-22 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1560 1588 26.77% 26.94% 46.29% +0.4 23
2017-10-23 Tubize L 1-2 1541 1457 53.65% 25.00% 21.35% -7.0 14
2017-10-23 @ Union SG W 2-1 1457 1541 21.35% 25.00% 53.65% +7.0 9
2017-10-27 Roeselare W 5-0 1588 1510 52.92% 25.24% 21.84% +15.9 26
2017-10-27 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-5 1510 1588 21.84% 25.24% 52.92% -15.9 18
2017-10-28 Lierse L 0-1 1526 1537 40.98% 27.69% 31.33% -6.0 12
2017-10-28 @ Westerlo W 1-0 1537 1526 31.33% 27.69% 40.98% +6.0 14
2017-10-28 Union SG W 1-0 1561 1534 46.11% 26.97% 26.92% +4.3 26
2017-10-28 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-1 1534 1561 26.92% 26.97% 46.11% -4.3 14
2017-10-29 Cercle Brugge D 1-1 1464 1504 36.73% 27.91% 35.36% -0.0 10
2017-10-29 @ Tubize D 1-1 1504 1464 35.36% 27.91% 36.73% +0.0 20
2017-11-05 Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-3 1530 1604 32.07% 27.76% 40.17% -13.7 14
2017-11-05 @ Union SG W 3-0 1604 1530 40.17% 27.76% 32.07% +13.7 29
2017-11-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1543 1565 39.28% 27.82% 32.90% +4.8 17
2017-11-05 @ Lierse L 1-2 1565 1543 32.90% 27.82% 39.28% -4.8 26
2017-11-05 Tubize W 1-0 1494 1464 46.51% 26.89% 26.59% +4.3 21
2017-11-05 @ Roeselare L 0-1 1464 1494 26.59% 26.89% 46.51% -4.3 10
2017-11-05 Westerlo W 3-1 1504 1520 40.23% 27.76% 32.02% +8.2 23
2017-11-05 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-3 1520 1504 32.02% 27.76% 40.23% -8.2 12
2017-11-11 Lierse L 1-2 1460 1547 30.33% 27.58% 42.10% -4.5 10
2017-11-11 @ Tubize W 2-1 1547 1460 42.10% 27.58% 30.33% +4.5 20
2017-11-11 Union SG L 0-1 1512 1516 41.88% 27.60% 30.52% -6.1 12
2017-11-11 @ Westerlo W 1-0 1516 1512 30.52% 27.60% 41.88% +6.1 17
2017-11-12 Beerschot Wilrijk W 4-0 1513 1617 28.27% 27.26% 44.48% +22.8 26
2017-11-12 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-4 1617 1513 44.48% 27.26% 28.27% -22.8 29
2017-11-12 Roeselare D 1-1 1560 1498 50.86% 25.85% 23.29% -0.8 27
2017-11-12 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1498 1560 23.29% 25.85% 50.86% +0.8 22
2017-11-17 Cercle Brugge W 1-0 1552 1535 44.72% 27.22% 28.06% +4.5 23
2017-11-17 @ Lierse L 0-1 1535 1552 28.06% 27.22% 44.72% -4.5 26
2017-11-18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-2 1594 1559 47.26% 26.74% 26.00% -6.3 29
2017-11-18 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1559 1594 26.00% 26.74% 47.26% +6.3 30
2017-11-18 Westerlo W 2-1 1499 1506 41.45% 27.65% 30.90% +4.6 25
2017-11-18 @ Roeselare L 1-2 1506 1499 30.90% 27.65% 41.45% -4.6 12
2017-11-19 Tubize D 1-1 1522 1455 51.46% 25.68% 22.86% -0.9 18
2017-11-19 @ Union SG D 1-1 1455 1522 22.86% 25.68% 51.46% +0.9 11
2017-11-24 Cercle Brugge D 1-1 1456 1531 31.96% 27.75% 40.29% +0.2 12
2017-11-24 @ Tubize D 1-1 1531 1456 40.29% 27.75% 31.96% -0.2 27
2017-11-25 Lierse L 1-2 1503 1556 34.91% 27.91% 37.19% -5.0 25
2017-11-25 @ Roeselare W 2-1 1556 1503 37.19% 27.91% 34.91% +5.0 26
2017-11-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-0 1521 1566 36.12% 27.92% 35.96% +0.0 19
2017-11-25 @ Union SG D 0-0 1566 1521 35.96% 27.92% 36.12% +0.0 31
2017-11-26 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1501 1588 30.42% 27.59% 41.99% +0.3 13
2017-11-26 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1588 1501 41.99% 27.59% 30.42% -0.3 30
2017-12-01 Roeselare W 1-0 1588 1498 54.36% 24.76% 20.88% +3.5 33
2017-12-01 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1498 1588 20.88% 24.76% 54.36% -3.4 25
2017-12-02 Union SG D 2-2 1531 1521 43.77% 27.36% 28.87% -0.3 28
2017-12-02 @ Cercle Brugge D 2-2 1521 1531 28.87% 27.36% 43.77% +0.3 20
2017-12-02 Westerlo W 2-0 1561 1502 50.55% 25.94% 23.51% +7.3 29
2017-12-02 @ Lierse L 0-2 1502 1561 23.51% 25.94% 50.55% -7.3 13
2017-12-03 Tubize D 1-1 1566 1457 56.83% 23.86% 19.31% -1.2 32
2017-12-03 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1457 1566 19.31% 23.86% 56.83% +1.2 13
2017-12-08 Cercle Brugge L 0-3 1495 1530 37.41% 27.90% 34.69% -15.4 25
2017-12-08 @ Roeselare W 3-0 1530 1495 34.69% 27.90% 37.41% +15.3 31
2017-12-09 Lierse W 1-0 1522 1569 35.72% 27.92% 36.36% +5.5 23
2017-12-09 @ Union SG L 0-1 1569 1522 36.36% 27.92% 35.72% -5.5 29
2017-12-09 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-0 1494 1564 32.57% 27.80% 39.63% +5.8 16
2017-12-09 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1564 1494 39.63% 27.80% 32.57% -5.9 32
2017-12-15 Lierse W 2-1 1559 1563 41.79% 27.61% 30.60% +4.6 35
2017-12-15 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-2 1563 1559 30.60% 27.61% 41.79% -4.5 29
2017-12-16 Cercle Brugge L 2-3 1500 1546 35.96% 27.92% 36.12% -4.9 16
2017-12-16 @ Westerlo W 3-2 1546 1500 36.12% 27.92% 35.96% +4.9 34
2017-12-16 Union SG W 2-1 1591 1527 51.13% 25.78% 23.10% +3.6 36
2017-12-16 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1527 1591 23.10% 25.78% 51.13% -3.6 23
2017-12-17 Tubize L 1-2 1480 1458 45.48% 27.09% 27.43% -6.1 25
2017-12-17 @ Roeselare W 2-1 1458 1480 27.43% 27.09% 45.48% +6.1 16
2018-01-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-0 1551 1563 40.68% 27.72% 31.60% +4.9 37
2018-01-05 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-1 1563 1551 31.60% 27.72% 40.68% -5.0 35
2018-01-06 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-1 1559 1595 37.32% 27.90% 34.78% +5.0 32
2018-01-06 @ Lierse L 1-2 1595 1559 34.78% 27.90% 37.32% -5.0 36
2018-01-07 Roeselare L 1-2 1523 1474 49.26% 26.28% 24.47% -6.5 23
2018-01-07 @ Union SG W 2-1 1474 1523 24.47% 26.28% 49.26% +6.5 28
2018-01-07 Westerlo W 2-1 1464 1495 37.96% 27.88% 34.15% +5.0 19
2018-01-07 @ Tubize L 1-2 1495 1464 34.15% 27.88% 37.96% -5.0 16
2018-01-10 Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-2 1469 1590 26.43% 26.85% 46.72% -4.0 19
2018-01-10 @ Tubize W 2-1 1590 1469 46.72% 26.85% 26.43% +4.0 39
2018-01-12 Roeselare D 0-0 1490 1480 43.89% 27.34% 28.77% -0.5 17
2018-01-12 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1480 1490 28.77% 27.34% 43.89% +0.5 29
2018-01-13 Cercle Brugge L 2-3 1594 1556 47.69% 26.65% 25.67% -6.0 39
2018-01-13 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-2 1556 1594 25.67% 26.65% 47.69% +6.0 40
2018-01-14 Tubize W 2-1 1564 1465 55.57% 24.33% 20.10% +3.1 35
2018-01-14 @ Lierse L 1-2 1465 1564 20.10% 24.33% 55.57% -3.1 19
2018-01-14 Union SG W 3-1 1558 1517 48.10% 26.55% 25.35% +6.7 38
2018-01-14 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-3 1517 1558 25.35% 26.55% 48.10% -6.7 23
2018-01-19 Lierse W 4-1 1562 1567 41.71% 27.62% 30.67% +11.2 43
2018-01-19 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-4 1567 1562 30.67% 27.62% 41.71% -11.2 35
2018-01-20 Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1481 1588 27.96% 27.20% 44.84% +0.6 30
2018-01-20 @ Roeselare D 0-0 1588 1481 44.84% 27.20% 27.96% -0.5 40
2018-01-20 Westerlo D 1-1 1510 1490 45.25% 27.13% 27.63% -0.5 24
2018-01-20 @ Union SG D 1-1 1490 1510 27.63% 27.13% 45.25% +0.5 18
2018-01-21 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-1 1462 1565 28.41% 27.28% 44.31% -4.5 19
2018-01-21 @ Tubize W 1-0 1565 1462 44.31% 27.28% 28.41% +4.5 41
2018-01-26 Westerlo L 0-1 1570 1490 53.05% 25.20% 21.75% -7.3 41
2018-01-26 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 1-0 1490 1570 21.75% 25.20% 53.05% +7.3 21
2018-01-27 Roeselare W 1-0 1573 1481 54.66% 24.66% 20.69% +3.4 46
2018-01-27 @ Cercle Brugge L 0-1 1481 1573 20.69% 24.66% 54.66% -3.4 30
2018-01-27 Tubize W 1-0 1587 1457 59.38% 22.83% 17.79% +2.9 43
2018-01-27 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1457 1587 17.79% 22.83% 59.38% -2.9 19
2018-01-28 Union SG W 1-0 1556 1510 48.73% 26.41% 24.86% +4.1 38
2018-01-28 @ Lierse L 0-1 1510 1556 24.86% 26.41% 48.73% -4.1 24
2018-02-02 Cercle Brugge D 2-2 1562 1576 40.47% 27.74% 31.80% -0.2 42
2018-02-02 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1576 1562 31.80% 27.74% 40.47% +0.2 47
2018-02-03 Lierse W 6-0 1498 1560 33.66% 27.86% 38.47% +30.0 24
2018-02-03 @ Westerlo L 0-6 1560 1498 38.47% 27.86% 33.66% -30.0 38
2018-02-03 Roeselare D 0-0 1454 1478 39.11% 27.83% 33.06% -0.2 20
2018-02-03 @ Tubize D 0-0 1478 1454 33.06% 27.83% 39.11% +0.2 31
2018-02-04 Beerschot Wilrijk W 1-0 1506 1590 30.70% 27.62% 41.68% +6.1 27
2018-02-04 @ Union SG L 0-1 1590 1506 41.68% 27.62% 30.70% -6.1 43
2018-02-09 Westerlo D 0-0 1584 1528 50.10% 26.06% 23.84% -0.9 44
2018-02-09 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1528 1584 23.84% 26.06% 50.10% +0.9 25
2018-02-10 Tubize D 0-0 1576 1454 58.45% 23.21% 18.33% -1.4 48
2018-02-10 @ Cercle Brugge D 0-0 1454 1576 18.33% 23.21% 58.45% +1.4 21
2018-02-10 Union SG L 1-4 1478 1512 37.64% 27.89% 34.46% -13.0 31
2018-02-10 @ Roeselare W 4-1 1512 1478 34.46% 27.89% 37.64% +13.0 30
2018-02-11 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-1 1530 1562 37.87% 27.89% 34.24% -5.7 38
2018-02-11 @ Lierse W 1-0 1562 1530 34.24% 27.89% 37.87% +5.7 45
2018-02-16 Roeselare L 1-2 1524 1465 50.48% 25.96% 23.56% -6.6 38
2018-02-16 @ Lierse W 2-1 1465 1524 23.56% 25.96% 50.48% +6.6 34
2018-02-17 Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1568 1583 40.25% 27.75% 31.99% -0.2 46
2018-02-17 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1583 1568 31.99% 27.75% 40.25% +0.2 45
2018-02-17 Cercle Brugge D 1-1 1525 1575 35.28% 27.91% 36.80% +0.0 31
2018-02-17 @ Union SG D 1-1 1575 1525 36.80% 27.91% 35.28% -0.0 49
2018-02-18 Tubize D 0-0 1529 1455 52.31% 25.43% 22.26% -1.0 26
2018-02-18 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1455 1529 22.26% 25.43% 52.31% +1.0 22
2018-02-25 Lierse D 1-1 1583 1517 51.36% 25.71% 22.93% -0.9 46
2018-02-25 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 1-1 1517 1583 22.93% 25.71% 51.36% +0.9 39
2018-02-25 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 1-1 1472 1567 29.30% 27.43% 43.27% +0.4 35
2018-02-25 @ Roeselare D 1-1 1567 1472 43.27% 27.43% 29.30% -0.4 47
2018-02-25 Union SG D 1-1 1456 1525 32.79% 27.81% 39.39% +0.2 23
2018-02-25 @ Tubize D 1-1 1525 1456 39.39% 27.81% 32.79% -0.2 32
2018-02-25 Westerlo D 1-1 1575 1528 48.91% 26.36% 24.73% -0.7 50
2018-02-25 @ Cercle Brugge D 1-1 1528 1575 24.73% 26.36% 48.91% +0.7 27

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2018-03-23 Union SG W 1-0 1528 1525 42.97% 27.47% 29.56% +4.7 3
2018-03-23 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1525 1528 29.56% 27.47% 42.97% -4.7 0
2018-03-25 Tubize D 0-0 1472 1457 44.57% 27.24% 28.19% -0.5 1
2018-03-25 @ Roeselare D 0-0 1457 1472 28.19% 27.24% 44.57% +0.5 1
2018-03-30 Westerlo L 0-2 1457 1533 31.80% 27.74% 40.47% -9.4 1
2018-03-30 @ Tubize W 2-0 1533 1457 40.47% 27.74% 31.80% +9.4 6
2018-03-31 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1628 1579 49.08% 26.32% 24.60% -0.5 1
2018-03-31 @ Eupen D 2-2 1579 1628 24.60% 26.32% 49.08% +0.5 1
2018-03-31 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-3 1518 1596 31.56% 27.72% 40.72% -13.5 0
2018-03-31 @ Lierse W 3-0 1596 1518 40.72% 27.72% 31.56% +13.5 3
2018-04-01 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1712 1567 61.12% 22.07% 16.81% -1.1 1
2018-04-01 @ Zulte Waregem D 2-2 1567 1712 16.81% 22.07% 61.12% +1.0 1
2018-04-02 Roeselare L 0-1 1520 1471 49.06% 26.33% 24.61% -6.9 0
2018-04-02 @ Union SG W 1-0 1471 1520 24.61% 26.33% 49.06% +6.9 4
2018-04-06 Tubize D 1-1 1513 1448 51.27% 25.74% 23.00% -0.9 1
2018-04-06 @ Union SG D 1-1 1448 1513 23.00% 25.74% 51.27% +0.9 2
2018-04-07 Lierse L 1-2 1568 1505 51.01% 25.81% 23.18% -6.7 1
2018-04-07 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1505 1568 23.18% 25.81% 51.01% +6.7 3
2018-04-07 Sporting Lokeren D 2-2 1580 1653 32.17% 27.77% 40.06% +0.2 2
2018-04-07 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1653 1580 40.06% 27.77% 32.17% -0.2 1
2018-04-08 Roeselare D 0-0 1542 1478 51.13% 25.78% 23.10% -1.0 7
2018-04-08 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1478 1542 23.10% 25.78% 51.13% +1.0 5
2018-04-13 Union SG L 0-1 1449 1512 33.45% 27.85% 38.70% -5.2 2
2018-04-13 @ Tubize W 1-0 1512 1449 38.70% 27.85% 33.45% +5.2 4
2018-04-14 Kortrijk L 0-2 1511 1710 19.32% 23.87% 56.81% -6.0 3
2018-04-14 @ Lierse W 2-0 1710 1511 56.81% 23.87% 19.32% +6.0 3
2018-04-14 Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 0-2 1655 1561 54.90% 24.57% 20.53% -14.2 0
2018-04-14 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1561 1655 20.53% 24.57% 54.90% +14.2 4
2018-04-15 Westerlo D 0-0 1479 1541 33.62% 27.86% 38.52% +0.2 6
2018-04-15 @ Roeselare D 0-0 1541 1479 38.52% 27.86% 33.62% -0.2 8
2018-04-15 Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-0 1662 1580 53.44% 25.07% 21.49% +6.7 3
2018-04-15 @ Antwerp L 0-2 1580 1662 21.49% 25.07% 53.44% -6.7 2
2018-04-17 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1716 1576 60.65% 22.28% 17.07% +2.6 6
2018-04-17 @ Kortrijk L 1-2 1576 1716 17.07% 22.28% 60.65% -2.6 4
2018-04-17 Zulte Waregem L 1-4 1505 1726 17.78% 22.82% 59.40% -6.7 3
2018-04-17 @ Lierse W 4-1 1726 1505 59.40% 22.82% 17.78% +6.7 4
2018-04-18 Sint-Truiden L 1-3 1573 1691 26.80% 26.94% 46.26% -7.1 2
2018-04-18 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-1 1691 1573 46.26% 26.94% 26.80% +7.1 3
2018-04-20 Westerlo L 0-2 1517 1541 39.04% 27.83% 33.13% -10.9 4
2018-04-20 @ Union SG W 2-0 1541 1517 33.13% 27.83% 39.04% +10.9 11
2018-04-21 Lierse L 0-1 1641 1499 60.80% 22.21% 16.99% -8.1 0
2018-04-21 @ Waasland-Beveren W 1-0 1499 1641 16.99% 22.21% 60.80% +8.1 6
2018-04-21 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-1 1573 1606 37.79% 27.89% 34.32% +8.6 7
2018-04-21 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven L 1-3 1606 1573 34.32% 27.89% 37.79% -8.6 3
2018-04-22 Roeselare L 1-3 1443 1479 37.34% 27.90% 34.76% -9.1 2
2018-04-22 @ Tubize W 3-1 1479 1443 34.76% 27.90% 37.34% +9.1 9
2018-04-22 Beerschot Wilrijk D 2-2 1752 1566 65.76% 19.85% 14.38% -1.2 1
2018-04-22 @ Oostende D 2-2 1566 1752 14.38% 19.85% 65.76% +1.2 3
2018-04-28 Lierse W 2-1 1707 1507 67.31% 19.07% 13.63% +2.0 9
2018-04-28 @ Kortrijk L 1-2 1507 1707 13.63% 19.07% 67.31% -2.0 6
2018-04-28 Waasland-Beveren D 0-0 1582 1633 35.15% 27.91% 36.94% +0.1 8
2018-04-28 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 0-0 1633 1582 36.94% 27.91% 35.15% -0.0 1
2018-04-29 Tubize D 1-1 1552 1434 57.90% 23.44% 18.66% -1.2 12
2018-04-29 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1434 1552 18.66% 23.44% 57.90% +1.2 3
2018-04-29 Union SG W 1-0 1489 1506 39.92% 27.78% 32.30% +5.0 12
2018-04-29 @ Roeselare L 0-1 1506 1489 32.30% 27.78% 39.92% -5.0 4
2018-04-29 Antwerp D 0-0 1567 1668 28.72% 27.34% 43.94% +0.5 4
2018-04-29 @ Beerschot Wilrijk D 0-0 1668 1567 43.94% 27.34% 28.72% -0.5 4
2018-05-05 Oud-Heverlee Leuven D 2-2 1505 1582 31.70% 27.73% 40.58% +0.2 7
2018-05-05 @ Lierse D 2-2 1582 1505 40.58% 27.73% 31.70% -0.2 9
2018-05-06 Oostende L 0-2 1568 1737 21.71% 25.17% 53.12% -6.8 4
2018-05-06 @ Beerschot Wilrijk W 2-0 1737 1568 53.12% 25.17% 21.71% +6.8 4
2018-05-08 Kortrijk L 0-2 1581 1703 26.32% 26.82% 46.86% -8.1 9
2018-05-08 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-0 1703 1581 46.86% 26.82% 26.32% +8.0 12
2018-05-08 Lierse W 1-0 1590 1505 53.77% 24.96% 21.27% +3.5 6
2018-05-08 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-1 1505 1590 21.27% 24.96% 53.77% -3.5 7
2018-05-09 Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-2 1694 1561 59.72% 22.68% 17.59% +2.6 6
2018-05-09 @ Sint-Truiden L 2-3 1561 1694 17.59% 22.68% 59.72% -2.6 4
2018-05-11 Waasland-Beveren L 0-5 1502 1615 27.24% 27.04% 45.72% -19.4 7
2018-05-11 @ Lierse W 5-0 1615 1502 45.72% 27.04% 27.24% +19.4 4
2018-05-11 Zulte Waregem L 1-2 1573 1775 19.12% 23.74% 57.14% -3.0 9
2018-05-11 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 2-1 1775 1573 57.14% 23.74% 19.12% +3.0 7
2018-05-12 Beerschot Wilrijk W 4-2 1686 1558 59.13% 22.93% 17.93% +4.3 4
2018-05-12 @ Sporting Lokeren L 2-4 1558 1686 17.93% 22.93% 59.13% -4.3 4
2018-05-18 Lierse W 5-0 1778 1482 76.82% 13.84% 9.34% +5.9 10
2018-05-18 @ Zulte Waregem L 0-5 1482 1778 9.34% 13.84% 76.82% -5.9 7
2018-05-18 Oud-Heverlee Leuven W 5-0 1594 1570 45.78% 27.03% 27.19% +19.3 9
2018-05-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-5 1570 1594 27.19% 27.03% 45.78% -19.3 9
2018-05-19 Eupen W 3-1 1554 1599 36.10% 27.92% 35.99% +8.9 7
2018-05-19 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 1-3 1599 1554 35.99% 27.92% 36.10% -8.9 1

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2018-03-04 Cercle Brugge W 1-0 1583 1574 43.60% 27.39% 29.01% +4.6 1-0
2018-03-04 @ Beerschot Wilrijk L 0-1 1574 1583 29.01% 27.39% 43.60% -4.6 0-1
2018-03-10 Beerschot Wilrijk W 3-1 1570 1587 39.96% 27.78% 32.27% +8.2 1-1
2018-03-10 @ Cercle Brugge L 1-3 1587 1570 32.27% 27.78% 39.96% -8.2 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-10-07 18.31% Cercle Brugge 1487 3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1610 0
2 2017-10-23 21.35% Tubize 1457 2 @ Union SG 1541 1
3 2018-01-26 21.75% Westerlo 1490 1 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1570 0
4 2017-08-06 22.67% Cercle Brugge 1479 2 @ Westerlo 1548 1
5 2018-02-16 23.56% Roeselare 1465 2 @ Lierse 1524 1
6 2018-01-07 24.47% Roeselare 1474 2 @ Union SG 1523 1
7 2018-04-02 24.61% Roeselare 1471 1 @ Union SG 1520 0
8 2018-01-13 25.67% Cercle Brugge 1556 3 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1594 2
9 2017-11-18 26.00% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1559 2 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 1594 1
10 2017-09-29 26.07% Cercle Brugge 1496 2 @ Union SG 1531 1
11 2017-10-04 27.26% Union SG 1524 3 @ Westerlo 1548 0
12 2017-12-17 27.43% Tubize 1458 2 @ Roeselare 1480 1
13 2017-09-02 27.74% @ Cercle Brugge 1475 2 Lierse 1584 0
14 2017-11-12 28.27% @ Cercle Brugge 1513 4 Beerschot Wilrijk 1617 0
15 2017-09-16 29.21% @ Tubize 1475 2 Lierse 1572 0
16 2017-11-11 30.52% Union SG 1516 1 @ Westerlo 1512 0
17 2018-02-04 30.70% @ Union SG 1506 1 Beerschot Wilrijk 1590 0
18 2017-10-28 31.33% Lierse 1537 1 @ Westerlo 1526 0
19 2017-09-01 31.48% Beerschot Wilrijk 1565 4 @ Roeselare 1554 0
20 2017-12-09 32.57% @ Westerlo 1494 1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1564 0
21 2018-04-20 33.13% Westerlo 1541 2 @ Union SG 1517 0
22 2018-02-03 33.66% @ Westerlo 1498 6 Lierse 1560 0
23 2018-02-11 34.24% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1562 1 @ Lierse 1530 0
24 2017-10-03 34.44% Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1536 3 @ Cercle Brugge 1503 0
25 2018-02-10 34.46% Union SG 1512 4 @ Roeselare 1478 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-02-03 29.97 @ Westerlo 6 1498 33.66% Lierse 0 1560 38.47% 27.86%
2 2017-11-12 22.84 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1513 28.27% Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1617 44.48% 27.26%
3 2017-10-07 21.65 Cercle Brugge 3 1487 18.31% @ Beerschot Wilrijk 0 1610 58.50% 23.20%
4 2017-09-01 21.39 Beerschot Wilrijk 4 1565 31.48% @ Roeselare 0 1554 40.81% 27.71%
5 2017-08-19 20.33 @ Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7 1499 42.89% Cercle Brugge 1 1496 29.63% 27.48%
6 2017-10-04 17.85 Union SG 3 1524 27.26% @ Westerlo 0 1548 45.70% 27.05%
7 2017-09-09 17.83 @ Union SG 4 1517 40.35% Roeselare 0 1532 31.91% 27.75%
8 2017-09-23 17.46 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1479 41.29% Tubize 0 1487 31.05% 27.66%
9 2017-09-24 16.56 @ Westerlo 4 1527 43.58% Roeselare 0 1518 29.04% 27.39%
10 2017-10-27 15.88 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 5 1588 52.92% Roeselare 0 1510 21.84% 25.24%
11 2017-10-01 15.57 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 4 1590 46.07% Lierse 0 1564 26.95% 26.98%
12 2017-10-03 15.43 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 1536 34.44% @ Cercle Brugge 0 1503 37.66% 27.89%
13 2017-12-08 15.36 Cercle Brugge 3 1530 34.69% @ Roeselare 0 1495 37.41% 27.90%
14 2017-08-19 14.63 @ Union SG 3 1503 37.09% Westerlo 0 1540 35.00% 27.91%
15 2017-11-05 13.71 Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1604 40.17% @ Union SG 0 1530 32.07% 27.76%
16 2018-02-10 13.00 Union SG 4 1512 34.46% @ Roeselare 1 1478 37.64% 27.89%
17 2017-09-02 12.17 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1475 27.74% Lierse 0 1584 45.11% 27.15%
18 2017-08-04 11.98 @ Beerschot Wilrijk 3 1549 45.86% Union SG 0 1524 27.12% 27.02%
19 2017-09-16 11.81 @ Tubize 2 1475 29.21% Lierse 0 1572 43.37% 27.42%
20 2018-01-19 11.16 @ Cercle Brugge 4 1562 41.71% Lierse 1 1567 30.67% 27.62%
21 2018-04-20 10.90 Westerlo 2 1541 33.13% @ Union SG 0 1517 39.04% 27.83%
22 2017-10-05 10.58 @ Roeselare 2 1494 34.64% Lierse 0 1548 37.46% 27.90%
23 2017-08-11 9.75 @ Cercle Brugge 2 1486 38.68% Union SG 0 1512 33.46% 27.85%
24 2018-03-30 9.37 Westerlo 2 1533 40.47% @ Tubize 0 1457 31.80% 27.74%
25 2018-04-22 9.14 Roeselare 3 1479 34.76% @ Tubize 1 1443 37.34% 27.90%