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1913-14 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Wiener AF

4.31 points above expected

27 points · 22.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

First Vienna

4.70 points below expected

8 points · 12.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 18 11 5 2 27 51 26 +25 25.28 +1.72
2 Wiener AF 18 12 3 3 27 55 31 +24 22.69 +4.31
3 Wiener AC 18 8 7 3 23 51 27 +24 20.73 +2.27
4 Wiener Sport-Club 18 9 4 5 22 37 30 +7 21.79 +0.21
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 18 7 3 8 17 34 43 -9 18.24 -1.24
6 1. Simmeringer SC 18 6 4 8 16 38 42 -4 16.21 -0.21
7 SC Rudolfshugel 18 5 6 7 16 25 36 -11 14.58 +1.42
8 Floridsdorfer 18 4 5 9 13 32 43 -11 15.28 -2.28
9 Hertha Wien 18 2 7 9 11 27 44 -17 12.52 -1.52
10 First Vienna 18 3 2 13 8 21 49 -28 12.70 -4.70

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Wiener AF 27 22.69 +4.31
2 Wiener AC 23 20.73 +2.27
3 Rapid Wien 27 25.28 +1.72
4 SC Rudolfshugel 16 14.58 +1.42
5 Wiener Sport-Club 22 21.79 +0.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 First Vienna 8 12.70 -4.70
2 Floridsdorfer 13 15.28 -2.28
3 Hertha Wien 11 12.52 -1.52
4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 17 18.24 -1.24
5 1. Simmeringer SC 16 16.21 -0.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 First Vienna 3 Apr 26 – Jun 11 1 in 108
2 Wiener AF 5 Mar 1 – May 10 1 in 22
3 1. Simmeringer SC 2 Jun 28 – Jun 29 1 in 15
4 Wiener Sport-Club 3 Nov 30 – Mar 15 1 in 12
5 SC Rudolfshugel 2 Nov 9 – Nov 15 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Apr 26 – Jun 7 1 in 340
2 First Vienna 6 Nov 23 – Apr 19 1 in 49
3 1. Simmeringer SC 3 Oct 12 – Nov 9 1 in 13
4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 Aug 31 – Sep 21 1 in 6
5 Floridsdorfer 2 Nov 1 – Nov 15 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 7 Aug 31 – Nov 23 1 in 19
2 Hertha Wien 4 Sep 21 – Nov 9 1 in 18
3 Wiener Sport-Club 8 Nov 15 – Apr 19 1 in 15
4 Wiener AF 9 Mar 1 – Jun 29 1 in 13
5 1. Simmeringer SC 4 Nov 15 – Dec 7 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 First Vienna 13 Aug 31 – Apr 19 1 in 28
2 Floridsdorfer 8 Oct 12 – Mar 1 1 in 20
3 Wiener Sport-Club 4 Apr 26 – Jun 7 1 in 16
4 1. Simmeringer SC 5 May 21 – Jun 21 1 in 13
5 Wiener AF 4 Oct 12 – Nov 15 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Wiener AF 1419 27 +44 9 6.0 +3.0
Rapid Wien 1445 27 -3 6 6.5 -0.5
Wiener AC 1365 23 +9 6 6.0 -0.0
Wiener Sport-Club 1332 22 -56 2 6.3 -4.3
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1231 17 -55 3 5.4 -2.4
1. Simmeringer SC 1234 16 +0 5 4.8 +0.2
SC Rudolfshugel 1194 16 -4 4 3.3 +0.7
Floridsdorfer 1236 13 +39 4 3.8 +0.2
Hertha Wien 1139 11 -19 3 3.5 -0.5
First Vienna 1148 8 +24 6 3.8 +2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS FV FLO HW RW SR WA WA WA WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.40
1-0-1
1.30
0-1-1
3.10
1-0-1
2.04
1-0-1
1.72
0-0-2
2.42
1-1-0
1.85
First Vienna
1-0-1
2.28
 —
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.85
0-0-2
1.19
0-1-1
2.35
0-0-2
1.50
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-2
1.93
1-1-0
1.30
Floridsdorfer
1-1-0
2.38
1-0-1
3.19
 —
0-2-0
3.24
0-1-1
1.35
1-0-1
2.84
0-1-1
1.94
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.80
Hertha Wien
0-1-1
2.07
2-0-0
2.61
0-2-0
2.22
 —
0-0-2
1.05
0-2-0
2.41
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-1
1.36
0-1-1
1.82
0-0-2
1.42
Rapid Wien
1-0-1
4.22
2-0-0
4.36
1-1-0
4.18
2-0-0
4.51
 —
2-0-0
4.32
0-2-0
3.51
0-2-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
3.33
SC Rudolfshugel
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
2.62
0-2-0
3.05
0-0-2
1.21
 —
1-1-0
1.75
0-0-2
1.58
1-1-0
2.07
0-0-2
1.81
Wiener AC
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
4.01
1-1-0
3.54
2-0-0
3.96
0-2-0
1.97
0-1-1
3.73
 —
1-0-1
2.42
1-1-0
3.08
0-2-0
2.50
Wiener AF
1-0-1
3.77
2-0-0
4.28
2-0-0
3.86
1-1-0
4.16
0-2-0
2.24
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.04
 —
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.10
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
2-0-0
3.04
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
3.66
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
3.40
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.99
 —
1-0-1
2.20
Wiener Sport-Club
0-1-1
3.63
0-1-1
4.22
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.09
1-0-1
2.13
2-0-0
3.67
0-2-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.36
1-0-1
3.27
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.84 +5.1
Allowed 0.86 -7.4
Differential 0.94 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%1.11%3.89%2.78%0.56%3.33%12.78%
11.11%11.11%8.33%4.44%—3.89%28.89%
23.89%8.33%10.00%2.22%2.78%1.11%28.33%
32.78%4.44%2.22%2.22%0.56%1.11%13.33%
40.56%—2.78%0.56%1.11%1.11%6.11%
5+3.33%3.89%1.11%1.11%1.11%—10.56%
Total12.78%28.89%28.33%13.33%6.11%10.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.06 +0.00
SD 1.55 1.55 2.38
CV 0.75 0.75 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%—38.89%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%27.78%27.78%16.67%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.33 -0.22
SD 1.13 1.46 2.02
CV 0.54 0.62 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%—5.56%22.22%
1—5.56%16.67%11.11%—11.11%44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%27.78%22.22%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.72 -1.56
SD 0.86 1.56 2.01
CV 0.73 0.57 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3———————
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%11.11%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.39 -0.61
SD 1.52 2.03 2.73
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
1—16.67%5.56%11.11%—11.11%44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
35.56%——11.11%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%11.11%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.44 -0.94
SD 0.92 1.54 1.76
CV 0.62 0.63 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—11.11%———16.67%
5+5.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
Total22.22%22.22%50.00%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.44 +1.39
SD 1.82 1.04 1.82
CV 0.64 0.72 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
1—22.22%———5.56%27.78%
2—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%61.11%11.11%—5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.00 -0.61
SD 1.20 1.88 1.94
CV 0.86 0.94 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
3———————
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
Total16.67%33.33%38.89%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.50 +1.33
SD 2.04 1.04 2.40
CV 0.72 0.70 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
Total22.22%22.22%22.22%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 1.72 +1.33
SD 1.70 1.27 2.20
CV 0.56 0.74 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%16.67%22.22%
1—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%27.78%38.89%—5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.39 -0.50
SD 1.57 1.65 2.77
CV 0.83 0.69 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
1—5.56%—11.11%—5.56%22.22%
211.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.67 +0.39
SD 1.30 1.46 2.25
CV 0.63 0.87 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1445 27 25.28 +1.72 75.8% 15 20 23 25 27 30 35
Wiener AF 1419 27 22.69 +4.31 92.6% 12 17 20 23 25 28 32
Wiener AC 1365 23 20.73 +2.27 78.9% 11 15 18 21 23 26 31
Wiener Sport-Club 1332 22 21.79 +0.21 58.4% 11 16 20 22 24 27 31
Floridsdorfer 1236 13 15.28 -2.28 29.4% 5 10 13 15 18 21 26
1. Simmeringer SC 1234 16 16.21 -0.21 53.4% 7 11 14 16 18 22 26
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1231 17 18.24 -1.24 42.2% 8 13 16 18 20 24 30
SC Rudolfshugel 1194 16 14.58 +1.42 71.4% 4 9 12 14 17 20 27
First Vienna 1148 8 12.70 -4.70 9.8% 3 7 10 13 15 18 23
Hertha Wien 1139 11 12.52 -1.52 39.3% 2 7 10 12 15 18 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
Slight Edge
41.11%25.56%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
126 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.69 * Some Luck: 2.69 to 4.04 * Lucky: 4.04 to 5.38 * Wild Swing: 5.38 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.12 * Close: 1.12 to 1.67 * Off: 1.67 to 2.23 * Way Off: 2.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.45 points
As Expected
03.368
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.393
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.60%
Wiener AF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.80%
First Vienna
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.54
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Very Frequent
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.54
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.47
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.20
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.117
Well Within Noise
00.1830.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien53.60%24.70%13.30%5.70%1.60%0.70%0.20%0.20%——
Wiener AF21.10%28.00%19.80%16.10%8.30%4.30%1.50%0.60%0.20%0.10%
Wiener AC9.40%18.60%20.60%20.80%14.10%9.90%3.10%1.70%1.30%0.50%
Wiener Sport-Club12.70%20.90%24.60%18.60%11.20%6.10%3.10%1.70%0.90%0.20%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein2.00%4.80%9.90%16.70%20.90%16.90%14.70%7.40%3.70%3.00%
1. Simmeringer SC0.60%1.50%5.10%8.20%16.70%19.90%17.80%13.20%11.00%6.00%
SC Rudolfshugel0.30%0.50%1.80%5.60%10.00%12.30%16.20%22.10%16.90%14.30%
Floridsdorfer0.10%0.60%3.20%5.80%10.50%16.60%20.30%19.40%13.10%10.40%
Hertha Wien0.10%0.10%0.50%1.70%3.80%5.90%11.90%18.10%25.80%32.10%
First Vienna0.10%0.30%1.20%0.80%2.90%7.40%11.20%15.60%27.10%33.40%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rapid Wien 100% —
Wiener AF 99.90% 0.10%
Wiener Sport-Club 99.80% 0.20%
Wiener AC 99.50% 0.50%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 97.00% 3.00%
1. Simmeringer SC 94.00% 6.00%
Floridsdorfer 89.60% 10.40%
SC Rudolfshugel 85.70% 14.30%
Hertha Wien 67.90% 32.10%
First Vienna 66.60% 33.40%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1913-08-31 First Vienna W 3-033.4 1236 1213 45.13% 26.92% 27.95%+0.40 +13.1 2
1913-08-31 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-333.4 1213 1236 27.95% 26.92% 45.13%-0.40 -13.1 0
1913-08-31 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-030.6 1405 1287 56.21% 25.63% 18.15%+1.16 +11.9 2
1913-08-31 @ Rapid Wien L 0-430.6 1287 1405 18.15% 25.63% 56.21%-1.16 -11.9 0
1913-08-31 SC Rudolfshugel D 1-150.2 1299 1205 53.71% 26.06% 20.23%+0.97 -1.1 1
1913-08-31 @ Wiener AC D 1-150.2 1205 1299 20.23% 26.06% 53.71%-0.97 +1.1 1
1913-08-31 Floridsdorfer W 5-450.8 1360 1237 56.69% 25.54% 17.77%+1.19 +2.8 2
1913-08-31 @ Wiener AF L 4-550.8 1237 1360 17.77% 25.54% 56.69%-1.19 -2.8 0
1913-08-31 Hertha Wien W 3-135.6 1335 1166 61.14% 24.51% 14.35%+1.56 +4.4 2
1913-08-31 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-335.6 1166 1335 14.35% 24.51% 61.14%-1.56 -4.4 0
1913-09-14 Rapid Wien L 0-529.3 1200 1417 16.98% 24.66% 58.36%-1.51 -13.7 0
1913-09-14 @ First Vienna W 5-029.3 1417 1200 58.36% 24.66% 16.98%+1.51 +13.7 4
1913-09-14 Hertha Wien W 5-133.3 1298 1162 58.07% 25.26% 16.67%+1.30 +9.2 3
1913-09-14 @ Wiener AC L 1-533.3 1162 1298 16.67% 25.26% 58.07%-1.30 -9.2 0
1913-09-14 SC Rudolfshugel W 6-029.2 1363 1206 60.02% 24.80% 15.18%+1.46 +14.8 4
1913-09-14 @ Wiener AF L 0-629.2 1206 1363 15.18% 24.80% 60.02%-1.46 -14.8 1
1913-09-14 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-141.6 1339 1275 50.28% 26.51% 23.22%+0.73 +3.9 4
1913-09-14 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-241.6 1275 1339 23.22% 26.51% 50.28%-0.73 -3.9 0
1913-09-21 Hertha Wien D 3-359.3 1249 1153 53.91% 26.03% 20.06%+0.98 -0.7 3
1913-09-21 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 3-359.3 1153 1249 20.06% 26.03% 53.91%-0.98 +0.7 1
1913-09-21 Floridsdorfer L 1-244.6 1187 1234 35.43% 27.07% 37.50%-0.17 -5.4 0
1913-09-21 @ First Vienna W 2-144.6 1234 1187 37.50% 27.07% 35.43%+0.17 +5.4 2
1913-09-21 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-346.2 1378 1271 54.98% 25.86% 19.16%+1.06 +4.8 6
1913-09-21 @ Wiener AF L 3-546.2 1271 1378 19.16% 25.86% 54.98%-1.06 -4.8 0
1913-09-28 SC Rudolfshugel W 6-443.8 1431 1191 67.07% 22.55% 10.37%+2.12 +2.6 6
1913-09-28 @ Rapid Wien L 4-643.8 1191 1431 10.37% 22.55% 67.07%-2.12 -2.6 1
1913-10-12 First Vienna W 5-134.9 1266 1181 52.67% 26.21% 21.12%+0.89 +11.3 2
1913-10-12 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-534.9 1181 1266 21.12% 26.21% 52.67%-0.89 -11.3 0
1913-10-12 Floridsdorfer D 2-254.3 1153 1240 30.26% 26.85% 42.89%-0.47 +0.3 2
1913-10-12 @ Hertha Wien D 2-254.3 1240 1153 42.89% 26.85% 30.26%+0.47 -0.3 3
1913-10-12 Wiener AF D 2-258.1 1433 1382 48.65% 26.67% 24.68%+0.62 -0.6 7
1913-10-12 @ Rapid Wien D 2-258.1 1382 1433 24.68% 26.67% 48.65%-0.62 +0.6 7
1913-10-12 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-143.7 1189 1248 33.77% 27.02% 39.21%-0.26 +10.0 3
1913-10-12 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-343.7 1248 1189 39.21% 27.02% 33.77%+0.26 -10.0 3
1913-10-12 Wiener AC D 4-463.3 1343 1308 46.79% 26.82% 26.39%+0.50 -0.3 5
1913-10-12 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 4-463.3 1308 1343 26.39% 26.82% 46.79%-0.50 +0.3 4
1913-10-19 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 2-447.9 1238 1278 36.64% 27.09% 36.27%-0.10 -8.5 3
1913-10-19 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-247.9 1278 1238 36.27% 27.09% 36.64%+0.10 +8.5 4
1913-10-19 Rapid Wien D 2-256.1 1239 1433 18.90% 25.20% 55.90%-1.32 +0.9 4
1913-10-19 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-256.1 1433 1239 55.90% 25.20% 18.90%+1.32 -0.9 8
1913-10-19 First Vienna D 2-254.2 1199 1170 45.89% 26.88% 27.23%+0.44 -0.4 4
1913-10-19 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 2-254.2 1170 1199 27.23% 26.88% 45.89%-0.44 +0.4 1
1913-11-01 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-340.8 1240 1343 28.24% 26.69% 45.06%-0.60 -7.8 4
1913-11-01 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-140.8 1343 1240 45.06% 26.69% 28.24%+0.60 +7.8 7
1913-11-01 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-036.5 1432 1351 52.19% 26.28% 21.54%+0.86 +7.3 10
1913-11-01 @ Rapid Wien L 0-236.5 1351 1432 21.54% 26.28% 52.19%-0.86 -7.3 7
1913-11-01 Hertha Wien D 0-046.7 1198 1154 47.87% 26.74% 25.39%+0.57 -0.8 5
1913-11-01 @ SC Rudolfshugel D 0-046.7 1154 1198 25.39% 26.74% 47.87%-0.57 +0.8 3
1913-11-01 Wiener AF W 2-147.9 1308 1383 31.72% 26.94% 41.34%-0.38 +6.0 6
1913-11-01 @ Wiener AC L 1-247.9 1383 1308 41.34% 26.94% 31.72%+0.38 -6.0 7
1913-11-09 Wiener AF D 3-360.1 1154 1377 16.55% 24.52% 58.92%-1.55 +0.9 4
1913-11-09 @ Hertha Wien D 3-360.1 1377 1154 58.92% 24.52% 16.55%+1.55 -0.9 8
1913-11-09 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-240.4 1439 1230 64.64% 23.44% 11.92%+1.88 +3.3 12
1913-11-09 @ Rapid Wien L 2-440.4 1230 1439 11.92% 23.44% 64.64%-1.88 -3.3 3
1913-11-09 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-147.1 1197 1286 29.94% 26.83% 43.23%-0.49 +6.2 7
1913-11-09 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-247.1 1286 1197 43.23% 26.83% 29.94%+0.49 -6.2 4
1913-11-09 First Vienna W 2-031.7 1314 1170 58.77% 25.10% 16.13%+1.36 +5.6 8
1913-11-09 @ Wiener AC L 0-231.7 1170 1314 16.13% 25.10% 58.77%-1.36 -5.6 1
1913-11-15 Wiener AF W 3-254.7 1227 1376 23.01% 26.05% 50.94%-0.97 +6.8 5
1913-11-15 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 2-354.7 1376 1227 50.94% 26.05% 23.01%+0.97 -6.8 8
1913-11-15 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 2-444.2 1155 1280 25.67% 26.43% 47.90%-0.78 -6.5 4
1913-11-15 @ Hertha Wien W 4-244.2 1280 1155 47.90% 26.43% 25.67%+0.78 +6.5 6
1913-11-15 Wiener AC D 2-257.3 1442 1320 56.69% 25.54% 17.77%+1.19 -1.0 13
1913-11-15 @ Rapid Wien D 2-257.3 1320 1442 17.77% 25.54% 56.69%-1.19 +1.0 9
1913-11-15 Floridsdorfer W 2-144.5 1204 1233 38.11% 27.10% 34.79%-0.02 +5.3 9
1913-11-15 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-244.5 1233 1204 34.79% 27.10% 38.11%+0.02 -5.3 4
1913-11-15 First Vienna D 1-150.7 1344 1165 62.04% 24.25% 13.70%+1.64 -1.7 8
1913-11-15 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 1-150.7 1165 1344 13.70% 24.25% 62.04%-1.64 +1.7 2
1913-11-23 Wiener Sport-Club D 2-254.9 1233 1342 27.54% 26.63% 45.83%-0.65 +0.4 6
1913-11-23 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 2-254.9 1342 1233 45.83% 26.63% 27.54%+0.65 -0.4 9
1913-11-23 Wiener AC D 1-150.1 1227 1321 29.39% 26.79% 43.82%-0.53 +0.5 5
1913-11-23 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-150.1 1321 1227 43.82% 26.79% 29.39%+0.53 -0.5 10
1913-11-23 Hertha Wien W 4-237.8 1441 1149 70.96% 20.89% 8.15%+2.54 +2.2 15
1913-11-23 @ Rapid Wien L 2-437.8 1149 1441 8.15% 20.89% 70.96%-2.54 -2.2 4
1913-11-23 First Vienna W 5-131.7 1369 1166 64.12% 23.61% 12.27%+1.83 +6.8 10
1913-11-23 @ Wiener AF L 1-531.7 1166 1369 12.27% 23.61% 64.12%-1.83 -6.8 2
1913-11-30 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-237.7 1228 1286 33.92% 27.03% 39.05%-0.25 -10.4 5
1913-11-30 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-037.7 1286 1228 39.05% 27.03% 33.92%+0.25 +10.4 8
1913-11-30 First Vienna W 3-034.7 1147 1159 40.37% 27.09% 32.54%+0.11 +14.6 6
1913-11-30 @ Hertha Wien L 0-334.7 1159 1147 32.54% 27.09% 40.37%-0.11 -14.7 2
1913-11-30 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-234.9 1209 1341 24.80% 26.31% 48.89%-0.84 -8.1 9
1913-11-30 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 2-034.9 1341 1209 48.89% 26.31% 24.80%+0.84 +8.1 11
1913-11-30 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-250.0 1320 1234 52.79% 26.19% 21.02%+0.90 -7.4 10
1913-11-30 @ Wiener AC W 2-150.0 1234 1320 21.02% 26.19% 52.79%-0.90 +7.4 8
1913-12-07 Wiener AC L 0-536.8 1297 1313 39.95% 27.09% 32.96%+0.09 -27.5 8
1913-12-07 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-036.8 1313 1297 32.96% 27.09% 39.95%-0.09 +27.5 12
1913-12-07 1. Simmeringer SC D 2-254.3 1217 1241 38.82% 27.10% 34.07%+0.03 -0.1 6
1913-12-07 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-254.3 1241 1217 34.07% 27.10% 38.82%-0.03 +0.1 9
1913-12-07 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-340.7 1376 1350 45.61% 26.90% 27.50%+0.43 -19.0 10
1913-12-07 @ Wiener AF W 3-040.7 1350 1376 27.50% 26.90% 45.61%-0.43 +19.0 13
1914-03-01 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-339.4 1145 1269 25.68% 26.43% 47.89%-0.78 -7.2 2
1914-03-01 @ First Vienna W 3-139.4 1269 1145 47.89% 26.43% 25.68%+0.78 +7.2 10
1914-03-01 Floridsdorfer W 7-031.0 1340 1217 56.71% 25.54% 17.75%+1.19 +19.8 14
1914-03-01 @ Wiener AC L 0-731.0 1217 1340 17.75% 25.54% 56.71%-1.19 -19.8 6
1914-03-01 Hertha Wien W 2-137.1 1357 1161 63.51% 23.81% 12.68%+1.77 +2.2 12
1914-03-01 @ Wiener AF L 1-237.1 1161 1357 12.68% 23.81% 63.51%-1.77 -2.2 6
1914-03-08 SC Rudolfshugel W 1-039.5 1197 1201 41.66% 27.06% 31.28%+0.19 +5.2 8
1914-03-08 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-139.5 1201 1197 31.28% 27.06% 41.66%-0.19 -5.2 9
1914-03-15 SC Rudolfshugel D 1-149.5 1159 1196 37.05% 27.10% 35.85%-0.07 -0.0 7
1914-03-15 @ Hertha Wien D 1-149.5 1196 1159 35.85% 27.10% 37.05%+0.07 +0.0 10
1914-03-15 First Vienna W 3-132.8 1443 1138 71.89% 20.44% 7.67%+2.65 +2.3 17
1914-03-15 @ Rapid Wien L 1-332.8 1138 1443 7.67% 20.44% 71.89%-2.65 -2.3 2
1914-03-15 Wiener AC W 2-038.5 1359 1360 42.03% 27.05% 30.92%+0.21 +9.7 14
1914-03-15 @ Wiener AF L 0-238.5 1360 1359 30.92% 27.05% 42.03%-0.21 -9.7 14
1914-03-15 Floridsdorfer W 2-031.4 1369 1203 60.87% 24.58% 14.55%+1.54 +5.1 15
1914-03-15 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-231.4 1203 1369 14.55% 24.58% 60.87%-1.54 -5.1 8
1914-03-22 Wiener Sport-Club D 2-256.2 1350 1374 38.89% 27.10% 34.01%+0.03 -0.1 15
1914-03-22 @ Wiener AC D 2-256.2 1374 1350 34.01% 27.10% 38.89%-0.03 +0.1 16
1914-03-25 Wiener AC L 2-538.6 1135 1350 17.14% 24.71% 58.16%-1.49 -6.2 2
1914-03-25 @ First Vienna W 5-238.6 1350 1135 58.16% 24.71% 17.14%+1.49 +6.2 17
1914-03-25 Rapid Wien L 2-342.1 1159 1446 12.37% 22.76% 64.87%-2.07 -2.0 7
1914-03-25 @ Hertha Wien W 3-242.1 1446 1159 64.87% 22.76% 12.37%+2.07 +2.0 19
1914-03-25 Wiener AF L 3-449.3 1196 1369 20.66% 25.61% 53.73%-1.17 -3.2 10
1914-03-25 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 4-349.3 1369 1196 53.73% 25.61% 20.66%+1.17 +3.2 16
1914-03-29 Hertha Wien D 1-149.6 1198 1157 47.37% 26.78% 25.86%+0.54 -0.7 9
1914-03-29 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-149.6 1157 1198 25.86% 26.78% 47.37%-0.54 +0.7 8
1914-03-29 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-139.4 1372 1241 57.52% 25.37% 17.10%+1.26 +3.0 18
1914-03-29 @ Wiener AF L 1-239.4 1241 1372 17.10% 25.37% 57.52%-1.26 -3.0 9
1914-03-29 Rapid Wien W 2-150.2 1374 1448 31.86% 26.94% 41.20%-0.37 +6.0 18
1914-03-29 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-250.2 1448 1374 41.20% 26.94% 31.86%+0.37 -6.0 19
1914-04-19 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-243.8 1129 1192 33.29% 27.01% 39.70%-0.29 -5.1 2
1914-04-19 @ First Vienna W 2-143.8 1192 1129 39.70% 27.01% 33.29%+0.29 +5.1 12
1914-04-19 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-329.6 1158 1380 16.59% 24.53% 58.88%-1.55 -8.3 8
1914-04-19 @ Hertha Wien W 3-029.6 1380 1158 58.88% 24.53% 16.59%+1.55 +8.3 20
1914-04-19 Floridsdorfer W 7-232.9 1442 1197 67.50% 22.39% 10.12%+2.17 +5.8 21
1914-04-19 @ Rapid Wien L 2-732.9 1197 1442 10.12% 22.39% 67.50%-2.17 -5.8 9
1914-04-19 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-255.4 1356 1277 52.05% 26.29% 21.65%+0.85 -0.8 18
1914-04-19 @ Wiener AC D 2-255.4 1277 1356 21.65% 26.29% 52.05%-0.85 +0.7 11
1914-04-26 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-149.9 1124 1388 13.70% 23.42% 62.88%-1.89 +14.9 4
1914-04-26 @ First Vienna L 1-349.9 1388 1124 62.88% 23.42% 13.70%+1.89 -14.9 20
1914-04-26 Wiener AC L 1-533.7 1149 1356 17.82% 24.91% 57.27%-1.43 -9.7 8
1914-04-26 @ Hertha Wien W 5-133.7 1356 1149 57.27% 24.91% 17.82%+1.43 +9.7 20
1914-04-26 Rapid Wien L 0-134.6 1198 1448 14.61% 23.81% 61.59%-1.77 -2.7 12
1914-04-26 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 1-034.6 1448 1198 61.59% 23.81% 14.61%+1.77 +2.7 23
1914-05-10 SC Rudolfshugel D 1-150.0 1277 1195 52.37% 26.25% 21.38%+0.87 -1.0 12
1914-05-10 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-150.0 1195 1277 21.38% 26.25% 52.37%-0.87 +1.0 13
1914-05-10 Wiener AF L 2-344.9 1191 1375 19.68% 25.39% 54.92%-1.25 -3.2 9
1914-05-10 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-244.9 1375 1191 54.92% 25.39% 19.68%+1.25 +3.2 20
1914-05-10 Rapid Wien D 1-153.4 1365 1450 30.44% 26.86% 42.70%-0.46 +0.4 21
1914-05-10 @ Wiener AC D 1-153.4 1450 1365 42.70% 26.86% 30.44%+0.46 -0.4 24
1914-05-10 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-546.4 1373 1238 57.91% 25.29% 16.80%+1.29 -25.4 20
1914-05-10 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 5-146.4 1238 1373 16.80% 25.29% 57.91%-1.29 +25.4 11
1914-05-17 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-145.0 1276 1348 32.21% 26.96% 40.83%-0.35 +10.3 14
1914-05-17 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-345.0 1348 1276 40.83% 26.96% 32.21%+0.35 -10.3 20
1914-05-17 Wiener AC W 2-150.1 1196 1366 21.00% 25.68% 53.31%-1.14 +7.4 15
1914-05-17 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-250.1 1366 1196 53.31% 25.68% 21.00%+1.14 -7.4 21
1914-05-17 Rapid Wien D 1-153.7 1378 1450 32.21% 26.96% 40.83%-0.35 +0.3 21
1914-05-17 @ Wiener AF D 1-153.7 1450 1378 40.83% 26.96% 32.21%+0.35 -0.3 25
1914-05-21 Wiener AC L 3-549.3 1264 1358 29.24% 26.78% 43.98%-0.54 -6.8 11
1914-05-21 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-349.3 1358 1264 43.98% 26.78% 29.24%+0.54 +6.8 23
1914-05-21 Wiener AF L 0-534.1 1287 1379 29.55% 26.80% 43.65%-0.52 -21.9 14
1914-05-21 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-034.1 1379 1287 43.65% 26.80% 29.55%+0.52 +21.9 23
1914-05-24 Floridsdorfer L 1-543.8 1257 1188 50.83% 26.44% 22.73%+0.77 -22.6 11
1914-05-24 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-143.8 1188 1257 22.73% 26.44% 50.83%-0.77 +22.6 11
1914-05-24 Hertha Wien D 1-150.1 1265 1140 56.92% 25.50% 17.58%+1.21 -1.3 15
1914-05-24 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 1-150.1 1140 1265 17.58% 25.50% 56.92%-1.21 +1.3 9
1914-06-07 SC Rudolfshugel D 1-149.7 1234 1203 46.18% 26.86% 26.96%+0.46 -0.6 12
1914-06-07 @ 1. Simmeringer SC D 1-149.7 1203 1234 26.96% 26.86% 46.18%-0.46 +0.6 16
1914-06-07 First Vienna L 1-249.0 1211 1139 51.13% 26.41% 22.46%+0.79 -7.2 11
1914-06-07 @ Floridsdorfer W 2-149.0 1139 1211 22.46% 26.41% 51.13%-0.79 +7.2 6
1914-06-07 Wiener AF L 0-337.2 1337 1401 33.31% 27.01% 39.68%-0.29 -14.9 20
1914-06-07 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 3-037.2 1401 1337 39.68% 27.01% 33.31%+0.29 +14.9 25
1914-06-11 Rapid Wien L 1-241.2 1263 1450 19.52% 25.35% 55.13%-1.27 -3.3 15
1914-06-11 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-141.2 1450 1263 55.13% 25.35% 19.52%+1.27 +3.3 27
1914-06-11 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-040.1 1146 1234 30.09% 26.84% 43.07%-0.48 +12.5 8
1914-06-11 @ First Vienna L 0-240.1 1234 1146 43.07% 26.84% 30.09%+0.48 -12.5 12
1914-06-11 SC Rudolfshugel W 5-134.0 1323 1204 56.27% 25.62% 18.11%+1.16 +9.9 22
1914-06-11 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-534.0 1204 1323 18.11% 25.62% 56.27%-1.16 -9.9 16
1914-06-21 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-246.8 1260 1221 47.17% 26.79% 26.04%+0.53 +4.0 17
1914-06-21 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 2-346.8 1221 1260 26.04% 26.79% 47.17%-0.53 -4.0 12
1914-06-21 Hertha Wien L 1-247.2 1158 1141 44.41% 26.96% 28.63%+0.35 -6.4 8
1914-06-21 @ First Vienna W 2-147.2 1141 1158 28.63% 26.96% 44.41%-0.35 +6.4 11
1914-06-28 Rapid Wien W 2-152.5 1217 1453 15.59% 24.19% 60.22%-1.66 +8.3 14
1914-06-28 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-252.5 1453 1217 60.22% 24.19% 15.59%+1.66 -8.3 27
1914-06-28 Floridsdorfer L 0-539.0 1264 1203 49.86% 26.55% 23.59%+0.70 -32.9 17
1914-06-28 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-039.0 1203 1264 23.59% 26.55% 49.86%-0.70 +32.9 13
1914-06-29 Wiener AF L 2-440.2 1152 1415 13.75% 23.44% 62.82%-1.88 -3.7 8
1914-06-29 @ First Vienna W 4-240.2 1415 1152 62.82% 23.44% 13.75%+1.88 +3.7 27
1914-06-29 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-341.2 1148 1226 31.34% 26.92% 41.75%-0.41 -8.5 11
1914-06-29 @ Hertha Wien W 3-141.2 1226 1148 41.75% 26.92% 31.34%+0.41 +8.5 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1914-04-26 13.70% @ First Vienna 1124 3 Wiener Sport-Club 1388 1
2 1914-06-28 15.59% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1217 2 Rapid Wien 1453 1
3 1914-05-10 16.80% 1. Simmeringer SC 1238 5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1373 1
4 1914-05-17 21.00% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1196 2 Wiener AC 1366 1
5 1913-11-30 21.02% 1. Simmeringer SC 1234 2 @ Wiener AC 1320 1
6 1914-06-07 22.46% First Vienna 1139 2 @ Floridsdorfer 1211 1
7 1914-05-24 22.73% Floridsdorfer 1188 5 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1257 1
8 1913-11-15 23.01% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1227 3 Wiener AF 1376 2
9 1914-06-28 23.59% Floridsdorfer 1203 5 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1264 0
10 1913-12-07 27.50% Wiener Sport-Club 1350 3 @ Wiener AF 1376 0
11 1914-06-21 28.63% Hertha Wien 1141 2 @ First Vienna 1158 1
12 1913-11-09 29.94% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1197 2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1286 1
13 1914-06-11 30.09% @ First Vienna 1146 2 1. Simmeringer SC 1234 0
14 1913-11-01 31.72% @ Wiener AC 1308 2 Wiener AF 1383 1
15 1914-03-29 31.86% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1374 2 Rapid Wien 1448 1
16 1914-05-17 32.21% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1276 3 Wiener Sport-Club 1348 1
17 1913-12-07 32.96% Wiener AC 1313 5 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1297 0
18 1913-10-12 33.77% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1189 3 1. Simmeringer SC 1248 1
19 1913-10-19 36.27% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1278 4 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1238 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1914-06-28 32.94 Floridsdorfer 5 1203 23.59% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1264 49.86% 26.55%
2 1913-12-07 27.48 Wiener AC 5 1313 32.96% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1297 39.95% 27.09%
3 1914-05-10 25.43 1. Simmeringer SC 5 1238 16.80% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1373 57.91% 25.29%
4 1914-05-24 22.65 Floridsdorfer 5 1188 22.73% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1257 50.83% 26.44%
5 1914-05-21 21.89 Wiener AF 5 1379 43.65% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1287 29.55% 26.80%
6 1914-03-01 19.80 @ Wiener AC 7 1340 56.71% Floridsdorfer 0 1217 17.75% 25.54%
7 1913-12-07 18.98 Wiener Sport-Club 3 1350 27.50% @ Wiener AF 0 1376 45.61% 26.90%
8 1914-06-07 14.90 Wiener AF 3 1401 39.68% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 1337 33.31% 27.01%
9 1914-04-26 14.89 @ First Vienna 3 1124 13.70% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1388 62.88% 23.42%
10 1913-09-14 14.81 @ Wiener AF 6 1363 60.02% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1206 15.18% 24.80%
11 1913-11-30 14.66 @ Hertha Wien 3 1147 40.37% First Vienna 0 1159 32.54% 27.09%
12 1913-09-14 13.65 Rapid Wien 5 1417 58.36% @ First Vienna 0 1200 16.98% 24.66%
13 1913-08-31 13.06 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1236 45.13% First Vienna 0 1213 27.95% 26.92%
14 1914-06-11 12.45 @ First Vienna 2 1146 30.09% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1234 43.07% 26.84%
15 1913-08-31 11.92 @ Rapid Wien 4 1405 56.21% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1287 18.15% 25.63%
16 1913-10-12 11.32 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 5 1266 52.67% First Vienna 1 1181 21.12% 26.21%
17 1913-11-30 10.40 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1286 39.05% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1228 33.92% 27.03%
18 1914-05-17 10.34 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1276 32.21% Wiener Sport-Club 1 1348 40.83% 26.96%
19 1913-10-12 10.03 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1189 33.77% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1248 39.21% 27.02%
20 1914-06-11 9.91 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1323 56.27% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1204 18.11% 25.62%
21 1914-03-15 9.72 @ Wiener AF 2 1359 42.03% Wiener AC 0 1360 30.92% 27.05%
22 1914-04-26 9.66 Wiener AC 5 1356 57.27% @ Hertha Wien 1 1149 17.82% 24.91%
23 1913-09-14 9.20 @ Wiener AC 5 1298 58.07% Hertha Wien 1 1162 16.67% 25.26%
24 1913-10-19 8.53 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 1278 36.27% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1238 36.64% 27.09%
25 1914-06-29 8.48 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1226 41.75% @ Hertha Wien 1 1148 31.34% 26.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1913-10-12 63.3 @ Wiener Sport-Club 4 1343 46.79% Wiener AC 4 1308 26.39% 26.82%
2 1913-11-09 60.1 @ Hertha Wien 3 1154 16.55% Wiener AF 3 1377 58.92% 24.52%
3 1913-09-21 59.3 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1249 53.91% Hertha Wien 3 1153 20.06% 26.03%
4 1913-10-12 58.1 @ Rapid Wien 2 1433 48.65% Wiener AF 2 1382 24.68% 26.67%
5 1913-11-15 57.3 @ Rapid Wien 2 1442 56.69% Wiener AC 2 1320 17.77% 25.54%
6 1914-03-22 56.2 @ Wiener AC 2 1350 38.89% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1374 34.01% 27.10%
7 1913-10-19 56.1 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1239 18.90% Rapid Wien 2 1433 55.90% 25.20%
8 1914-04-19 55.4 @ Wiener AC 2 1356 52.05% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1277 21.65% 26.29%
9 1913-11-23 54.9 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1233 27.54% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1342 45.83% 26.63%
10 1913-11-15 54.7 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1227 23.01% Wiener AF 2 1376 50.94% 26.05%
11 1913-10-12 54.3 @ Hertha Wien 2 1153 30.26% Floridsdorfer 2 1240 42.89% 26.85%
12 1913-12-07 54.3 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1217 38.82% 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1241 34.07% 27.10%
13 1913-10-19 54.2 @ SC Rudolfshugel 2 1199 45.89% First Vienna 2 1170 27.23% 26.88%
14 1914-05-17 53.7 @ Wiener AF 1 1378 32.21% Rapid Wien 1 1450 40.83% 26.96%
15 1914-05-10 53.4 @ Wiener AC 1 1365 30.44% Rapid Wien 1 1450 42.70% 26.86%
16 1914-06-28 52.5 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1217 15.59% Rapid Wien 1 1453 60.22% 24.19%
17 1913-08-31 50.8 @ Wiener AF 5 1360 56.69% Floridsdorfer 4 1237 17.77% 25.54%
18 1913-11-15 50.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1344 62.04% First Vienna 1 1165 13.70% 24.25%
19 1913-08-31 50.2 @ Wiener AC 1 1299 53.71% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1205 20.23% 26.06%
20 1914-03-29 50.2 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1374 31.86% Rapid Wien 1 1448 41.20% 26.94%
21 1913-11-23 50.1 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1227 29.39% Wiener AC 1 1321 43.82% 26.79%
22 1914-05-17 50.1 @ SC Rudolfshugel 2 1196 21.00% Wiener AC 1 1366 53.31% 25.68%
23 1914-05-24 50.1 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 1265 56.92% Hertha Wien 1 1140 17.58% 25.50%
24 1913-11-30 50.0 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1234 21.02% @ Wiener AC 1 1320 52.79% 26.19%
25 1914-05-10 50.0 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 1277 52.37% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1195 21.38% 26.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1913-09-14 29.2 @ Wiener AF 6 1363 60.02% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1206 15.18% 24.80%
2 1913-09-14 29.3 Rapid Wien 5 1417 58.36% @ First Vienna 0 1200 16.98% 24.66%
3 1914-04-19 29.6 Wiener Sport-Club 3 1380 58.88% @ Hertha Wien 0 1158 16.59% 24.53%
4 1913-08-31 30.6 @ Rapid Wien 4 1405 56.21% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1287 18.15% 25.63%
5 1914-03-01 31.0 @ Wiener AC 7 1340 56.71% Floridsdorfer 0 1217 17.75% 25.54%
6 1914-03-15 31.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1369 60.87% Floridsdorfer 0 1203 14.55% 24.58%
7 1913-11-09 31.7 @ Wiener AC 2 1314 58.77% First Vienna 0 1170 16.13% 25.10%
8 1913-11-23 31.7 @ Wiener AF 5 1369 64.12% First Vienna 1 1166 12.27% 23.61%
9 1914-03-15 32.8 @ Rapid Wien 3 1443 71.89% First Vienna 1 1138 7.67% 20.44%
10 1914-04-19 32.9 @ Rapid Wien 7 1442 67.50% Floridsdorfer 2 1197 10.12% 22.39%
11 1913-09-14 33.3 @ Wiener AC 5 1298 58.07% Hertha Wien 1 1162 16.67% 25.26%
12 1913-08-31 33.4 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1236 45.13% First Vienna 0 1213 27.95% 26.92%
13 1914-04-26 33.7 Wiener AC 5 1356 57.27% @ Hertha Wien 1 1149 17.82% 24.91%
14 1914-06-11 34.0 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1323 56.27% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1204 18.11% 25.62%
15 1914-05-21 34.1 Wiener AF 5 1379 43.65% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1287 29.55% 26.80%
16 1914-04-26 34.6 Rapid Wien 1 1448 61.59% @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1198 14.61% 23.81%
17 1913-11-30 34.7 @ Hertha Wien 3 1147 40.37% First Vienna 0 1159 32.54% 27.09%
18 1913-10-12 34.9 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 5 1266 52.67% First Vienna 1 1181 21.12% 26.21%
19 1913-11-30 34.9 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1341 48.89% @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1209 24.80% 26.31%
20 1913-08-31 35.6 @ Wiener Sport-Club 3 1335 61.14% Hertha Wien 1 1166 14.35% 24.51%
21 1913-11-01 36.5 @ Rapid Wien 2 1432 52.19% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1351 21.54% 26.28%
22 1913-12-07 36.8 Wiener AC 5 1313 32.96% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1297 39.95% 27.09%
23 1914-03-01 37.1 @ Wiener AF 2 1357 63.51% Hertha Wien 1 1161 12.68% 23.81%
24 1914-06-07 37.2 Wiener AF 3 1401 39.68% @ Wiener Sport-Club 0 1337 33.31% 27.01%
25 1913-11-30 37.7 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1286 39.05% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1228 33.92% 27.03%