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1912-13 Austrian Football Championship Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rapid Wien

33 points · 2nd Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rapid Wien

8.03 points above expected

33 points · 24.97 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hertha Wien

6.73 points below expected

6 points · 12.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rapid Wien Champion 18 15 3 0 33 59 17 +42 24.97 +8.03
2 Wiener AF 18 12 2 4 26 39 21 +18 23.64 +2.36
3 Wiener Sport-Club 18 10 1 7 21 45 24 +21 22.61 -1.61
4 Wiener AC 18 8 3 7 19 41 28 +13 20.15 -1.15
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 18 9 1 8 19 41 30 +11 18.26 +0.74
6 SC Rudolfshugel 18 6 3 9 15 22 43 -21 14.24 +0.76
7 1. Simmeringer SC 18 7 1 10 15 29 53 -24 13.35 +1.65
8 First Vienna 18 5 3 10 13 21 32 -11 13.30 -0.30
9 Floridsdorfer 18 5 3 10 13 26 46 -20 16.76 -3.76
10 Hertha Wien 18 3 0 15 6 21 50 -29 12.73 -6.73

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rapid Wien 33 24.97 +8.03
2 Wiener AF 26 23.64 +2.36
3 1. Simmeringer SC 15 13.35 +1.65
4 SC Rudolfshugel 15 14.24 +0.76
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 19 18.26 +0.74

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hertha Wien 6 12.73 -6.73
2 Floridsdorfer 13 16.76 -3.76
3 Wiener Sport-Club 21 22.61 -1.61
4 Wiener AC 19 20.15 -1.15
5 First Vienna 13 13.30 -0.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Wien 12 Oct 13 – May 1 1 in 245
2 1. Simmeringer SC 4 May 22 – Jun 8 1 in 115
3 Wiener AC 4 Sep 1 – Sep 22 1 in 36
4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 Sep 15 – Oct 27 1 in 9
5 Hertha Wien 2 Nov 15 – Nov 17 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 4 Mar 16 – Apr 20 1 in 76
2 Hertha Wien 7 Dec 1 – May 4 1 in 37
3 Floridsdorfer 4 Sep 1 – Oct 27 1 in 26
4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 Mar 2 – Mar 30 1 in 17
5 1. Simmeringer SC 4 Sep 15 – Nov 10 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Wien 18 Sep 1 – Jun 29 1 in 169
2 Wiener AC 8 Sep 1 – Dec 1 1 in 68
3 1. Simmeringer SC 4 May 22 – Jun 8 1 in 29
4 Wiener AF 7 Dec 8 – May 4 1 in 15
5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 4 Sep 8 – Oct 27 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Wiener AC 7 Dec 8 – Apr 20 1 in 108
2 First Vienna 8 Sep 8 – Dec 8 1 in 24
3 1. Simmeringer SC 8 Sep 15 – Mar 16 1 in 15
4 Hertha Wien 7 Dec 1 – May 4 1 in 10
5 Floridsdorfer 4 Sep 1 – Oct 27 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rapid Wien 1554 33 +15 9 7.8 +1.2
Wiener AF 1470 26 +3 7 6.6 +0.4
Wiener Sport-Club 1415 21 +2 6 6.9 -0.9
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1348 19 -7 4 5.1 -1.1
Wiener AC 1365 19 -11 3 6.4 -3.4
1. Simmeringer SC 1275 15 +61 8 3.5 +4.5
SC Rudolfshugel 1231 15 -5 4 3.4 +0.6
First Vienna 1240 13 -8 4 3.9 +0.1
Floridsdorfer 1276 13 -17 3 4.4 -1.4
Hertha Wien 1160 6 -40 2 3.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 1SS FV FLO HW RW SR WA WA WA WS
1. Simmeringer SC —
1-0-1
3.15
0-1-1
2.20
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-2
1.21
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
1.59
1-0-1
1.50
1-0-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.30
First Vienna
1-0-1
2.61
 —
0-1-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
1.32
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
1.79
0-0-2
1.38
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.75
Floridsdorfer
1-1-0
3.56
1-1-0
3.32
 —
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
1.51
0-1-1
3.26
0-0-2
2.47
0-0-2
1.60
1-0-1
2.45
0-0-2
2.36
Hertha Wien
0-0-2
2.58
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.16
 —
0-0-2
1.09
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
1.63
0-0-2
1.41
0-0-2
2.11
0-0-2
1.44
Rapid Wien
2-0-0
4.56
1-1-0
4.45
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
4.68
 —
2-0-0
4.62
1-1-0
3.60
1-1-0
3.29
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
3.39
SC Rudolfshugel
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
1.15
 —
0-1-1
2.18
1-0-1
1.48
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
1.58
Wiener AC
1-0-1
4.18
1-0-1
3.98
2-0-0
3.29
1-0-1
4.13
0-1-1
2.17
1-1-0
3.58
 —
1-1-0
2.22
0-0-2
3.10
1-0-1
2.48
Wiener AF
1-0-1
4.27
2-0-0
4.39
2-0-0
4.16
2-0-0
4.36
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
4.29
0-1-1
3.55
 —
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
3.07
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein
1-0-1
3.73
1-0-1
3.72
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
3.66
0-0-2
1.88
1-0-1
3.30
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
2.04
 —
1-1-0
2.07
Wiener Sport-Club
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.40
2-0-0
4.32
0-0-2
2.37
1-0-1
4.18
1-0-1
3.29
0-0-2
2.70
0-1-1
3.69
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +5.4
Allowed 0.71 -5.0
Differential 0.84 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%4.44%4.44%3.89%1.67%3.89%20.56%
14.44%5.56%7.78%2.78%4.44%3.33%28.33%
24.44%7.78%3.33%2.78%2.78%0.56%21.67%
33.89%2.78%2.78%—1.67%—11.11%
41.67%4.44%2.78%1.67%——10.56%
5+3.89%3.33%0.56%———7.78%
Total20.56%28.33%21.67%11.11%10.56%7.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.91 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.72
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%16.67%44.44%
2—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.94 -1.33
SD 1.38 2.39 3.34
CV 0.86 0.81 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—22.22%———27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.78 -0.61
SD 1.15 1.48 1.91
CV 0.99 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%11.11%22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%16.67%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.56 -1.11
SD 1.15 1.82 2.49
CV 0.80 0.71 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%27.78%5.56%—38.89%
1——16.67%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
25.56%——11.11%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%—22.22%44.44%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.78 -1.61
SD 1.29 1.40 2.20
CV 1.11 0.50 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
5+22.22%—————22.22%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.28 0.94 +2.33
SD 1.67 0.87 2.03
CV 0.51 0.92 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%11.11%38.89%
15.56%———16.67%5.56%27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%11.11%5.56%22.22%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.39 -1.17
SD 1.40 2.00 2.79
CV 1.14 0.84 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
2———————
3——11.11%—11.11%—22.22%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total22.22%27.78%33.33%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.56 +0.72
SD 1.67 1.25 2.08
CV 0.73 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
216.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.17 +1.00
SD 1.47 0.86 1.57
CV 0.68 0.73 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
1——16.67%—5.56%—22.22%
211.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.67 +0.61
SD 1.81 1.50 2.70
CV 0.79 0.90 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
1——5.56%———5.56%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.33 +1.17
SD 2.20 1.24 2.96
CV 0.88 0.93 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rapid Wien 1554 33 24.97 +8.03 99.4% 12 19 23 25 27 30 35
Wiener AF 1470 26 23.64 +2.36 78.5% 8 17 21 24 26 30 34
Wiener Sport-Club 1415 21 22.61 -1.61 36.3% 10 16 20 23 25 29 33
Wiener AC 1365 19 20.15 -1.15 44.3% 8 14 18 20 23 26 32
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1348 19 18.26 +0.74 62.5% 6 12 16 18 21 25 30
Floridsdorfer 1276 13 16.76 -3.76 19.6% 7 11 14 17 19 23 29
1. Simmeringer SC 1275 15 13.35 +1.65 72.6% 2 7 11 13 16 20 27
First Vienna 1240 13 13.30 -0.30 52.3% 2 7 11 13 16 19 24
SC Rudolfshugel 1231 15 14.24 +0.76 65.9% 4 8 12 14 17 21 27
Hertha Wien 1160 6 12.73 -6.73 3.1% 2 7 10 13 15 19 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.22%
No Edge
43.33%11.11%45.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -7.72 Elo pts.
106 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.02 goals
Neutral
-2-0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
46%
Rapid Wien, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Tight Race
00.160.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.99 * Some Luck: 2.99 to 4.49 * Lucky: 4.49 to 5.99 * Wild Swing: 5.99 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.19 * Close: 1.19 to 1.79 * Off: 1.79 to 2.38 * Way Off: 2.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.71 points
Some Luck
03.749
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.493
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.40%
Rapid Wien
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.10%
Hertha Wien
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.78
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Frequent
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.05
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%30%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.25
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.20
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.129
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rapid Wien46.10%24.80%15.90%7.20%3.70%1.30%0.70%0.20%0.10%—
Wiener AF27.50%28.70%18.60%13.70%5.90%3.00%1.90%0.40%0.20%0.10%
Wiener Sport-Club16.80%25.70%23.30%16.20%8.50%5.60%2.40%0.70%0.70%0.10%
Wiener AC6.00%10.50%18.80%21.60%18.70%11.00%7.60%4.40%1.10%0.30%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein3.00%5.70%10.30%16.40%20.80%17.20%12.70%6.60%5.20%2.10%
SC Rudolfshugel0.40%0.80%2.40%5.70%8.50%10.60%16.90%19.40%19.40%15.90%
1. Simmeringer SC—0.50%1.40%3.00%5.90%9.30%14.20%20.00%22.40%23.30%
First Vienna—0.30%1.50%3.00%8.10%12.60%14.80%18.80%18.30%22.60%
Floridsdorfer0.20%2.80%7.00%11.50%15.60%19.90%17.20%11.00%9.50%5.30%
Hertha Wien—0.20%0.80%1.70%4.30%9.50%11.60%18.50%23.10%30.30%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
1. Simmeringer SC 76.70% 23.30%
First Vienna 77.40% 22.60%
Floridsdorfer 94.70% 5.30%
Hertha Wien 69.70% 30.30%
Rapid Wien 100% —
SC Rudolfshugel 84.10% 15.90%
Wiener AC 99.70% 0.30%
Wiener AF 99.90% 0.10%
Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 97.90% 2.10%
Wiener Sport-Club 99.90% 0.10%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1912-09-01 First Vienna L 1-444.4 1317 1255 52.66% 11.77% 35.57%+0.51 -18.7 0
1912-09-01 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-144.4 1255 1317 35.57% 11.77% 52.66%-0.51 +18.7 2
1912-09-01 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-737.2 1364 1371 43.08% 11.79% 45.14%-0.14 -40.9 0
1912-09-01 @ Floridsdorfer W 7-037.2 1371 1364 45.14% 11.79% 43.08%+0.14 +40.9 2
1912-09-01 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 3-032.9 1425 1296 61.13% 11.70% 27.17%+1.14 +12.2 2
1912-09-01 @ Rapid Wien L 0-332.9 1296 1425 27.17% 11.70% 61.13%-1.14 -12.2 0
1912-09-01 Wiener AC L 1-440.5 1291 1329 38.81% 11.78% 49.41%-0.43 -14.2 0
1912-09-01 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 4-140.5 1329 1291 49.41% 11.78% 38.81%+0.43 +14.2 2
1912-09-01 Hertha Wien W 2-033.4 1428 1261 65.34% 11.65% 23.01%+1.50 +7.2 2
1912-09-01 @ Wiener AF L 0-233.4 1261 1428 23.01% 11.65% 65.34%-1.50 -7.2 0
1912-09-08 Hertha Wien W 2-143.5 1298 1254 50.35% 11.78% 37.87%+0.35 +5.7 2
1912-09-08 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-243.5 1254 1298 37.87% 11.78% 50.35%-0.35 -5.7 0
1912-09-08 First Vienna D 1-157.7 1437 1274 64.92% 11.65% 23.43%+1.47 -1.5 3
1912-09-08 @ Rapid Wien D 1-157.7 1274 1437 23.43% 11.65% 64.92%-1.47 +1.6 3
1912-09-08 Floridsdorfer W 2-147.6 1277 1323 37.67% 11.78% 50.56%-0.51 +7.3 2
1912-09-08 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-247.6 1323 1277 50.56% 11.78% 37.67%+0.51 -7.4 0
1912-09-08 Wiener AC L 2-356.8 1435 1343 56.69% 11.74% 31.57%+0.80 -7.8 2
1912-09-08 @ Wiener AF W 3-256.8 1343 1435 31.57% 11.74% 56.69%-0.80 +7.8 4
1912-09-08 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein D 2-262.5 1412 1284 61.03% 11.70% 27.27%+1.14 -0.9 3
1912-09-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club D 2-262.5 1284 1412 27.27% 11.70% 61.03%-1.14 +0.9 1
1912-09-15 Wiener AF L 1-635.6 1304 1427 27.75% 11.71% 60.54%-1.24 -16.6 2
1912-09-15 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 6-135.6 1427 1304 60.54% 11.71% 27.75%+1.24 +16.6 4
1912-09-15 Wiener Sport-Club L 0-234.4 1276 1411 26.43% 11.69% 61.87%-1.35 -8.2 3
1912-09-15 @ First Vienna W 2-034.4 1411 1276 61.87% 11.69% 26.43%+1.35 +8.2 5
1912-09-15 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-638.9 1284 1285 44.04% 11.79% 44.18%-0.08 -25.1 2
1912-09-15 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 6-138.9 1285 1284 44.18% 11.79% 44.04%+0.08 +25.1 3
1912-09-15 Floridsdorfer W 4-247.7 1351 1315 49.10% 11.78% 39.12%+0.26 +9.0 6
1912-09-15 @ Wiener AC L 2-447.7 1315 1351 39.12% 11.78% 49.10%-0.26 -9.0 0
1912-09-22 Hertha Wien W 3-033.9 1310 1248 52.75% 11.77% 35.48%+0.51 +15.5 5
1912-09-22 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-333.9 1248 1310 35.48% 11.77% 52.75%-0.51 -15.5 0
1912-09-22 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-141.2 1259 1287 40.15% 11.78% 48.07%-0.34 +22.2 4
1912-09-22 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 1-541.2 1287 1259 48.07% 11.78% 40.15%+0.34 -22.2 2
1912-09-22 Wiener AC L 0-146.2 1419 1360 52.40% 11.77% 35.83%+0.49 -8.1 5
1912-09-22 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 1-046.2 1360 1419 35.83% 11.77% 52.40%-0.49 +8.1 8
1912-09-29 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-435.6 1232 1411 21.85% 11.63% 66.52%-1.76 -8.4 0
1912-09-29 @ Hertha Wien W 4-135.6 1411 1232 66.52% 11.63% 21.85%+1.76 +8.4 7
1912-09-29 Rapid Wien D 1-159.3 1368 1435 34.72% 11.76% 53.51%-0.71 +0.7 9
1912-09-29 @ Wiener AC D 1-159.3 1435 1368 53.51% 11.76% 34.72%+0.71 -0.7 4
1912-10-13 Rapid Wien L 2-441.5 1224 1435 18.84% 11.57% 69.59%-2.06 -4.6 0
1912-10-13 @ Hertha Wien W 4-241.5 1435 1224 69.59% 11.57% 18.84%+2.06 +4.6 6
1912-10-27 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-343.3 1306 1325 41.37% 11.78% 46.84%-0.25 -10.6 0
1912-10-27 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-143.3 1325 1306 46.84% 11.78% 41.37%+0.25 +10.6 7
1912-11-01 SC Rudolfshugel D 0-053.1 1267 1281 42.11% 11.78% 46.11%-0.20 +0.2 4
1912-11-01 @ First Vienna D 0-053.1 1281 1267 46.11% 11.78% 42.11%+0.20 -0.2 5
1912-11-01 Floridsdorfer L 1-242.0 1219 1296 33.60% 11.76% 54.65%-0.79 -5.1 0
1912-11-01 @ Hertha Wien W 2-142.0 1296 1219 54.65% 11.76% 33.60%+0.79 +5.1 2
1912-11-01 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-030.5 1439 1265 66.12% 11.63% 22.25%+1.58 +22.4 8
1912-11-01 @ Rapid Wien L 0-730.5 1265 1439 22.25% 11.63% 66.12%-1.58 -22.4 2
1912-11-01 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-143.6 1444 1336 58.62% 11.73% 29.65%+0.94 +4.5 6
1912-11-01 @ Wiener AF L 1-243.6 1336 1444 29.65% 11.73% 58.62%-0.94 -4.5 7
1912-11-10 1. Simmeringer SC W 7-134.6 1331 1242 56.31% 11.75% 31.95%+0.77 +22.3 9
1912-11-10 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-734.6 1242 1331 31.95% 11.75% 56.31%-0.77 -22.3 2
1912-11-15 Hertha Wien L 0-240.6 1268 1214 51.58% 11.77% 36.65%+0.43 -15.0 4
1912-11-15 @ First Vienna W 2-040.6 1214 1268 36.65% 11.77% 51.58%-0.43 +15.0 2
1912-11-15 1. Simmeringer SC D 1-156.2 1301 1220 55.22% 11.75% 33.03%+0.69 -0.8 3
1912-11-15 @ Floridsdorfer D 1-156.2 1220 1301 33.03% 11.75% 55.22%-0.69 +0.8 3
1912-11-15 Wiener AF W 1-049.1 1281 1448 22.99% 11.65% 65.36%-1.65 +10.0 7
1912-11-15 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 0-149.1 1448 1281 65.36% 11.65% 22.99%+1.65 -10.0 6
1912-11-15 Rapid Wien L 0-144.5 1419 1462 38.13% 11.78% 50.10%-0.47 -6.0 7
1912-11-15 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 1-044.5 1462 1419 50.10% 11.78% 38.13%+0.47 +6.1 10
1912-11-17 Wiener AC L 0-529.4 1221 1368 25.07% 11.68% 63.25%-1.47 -18.2 3
1912-11-17 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 5-029.4 1368 1221 63.25% 11.68% 25.07%+1.47 +18.2 11
1912-11-17 First Vienna W 2-034.8 1354 1253 57.83% 11.73% 30.44%+0.88 +9.3 11
1912-11-17 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-234.8 1253 1354 30.44% 11.73% 57.83%-0.88 -9.3 4
1912-11-17 Rapid Wien L 1-339.5 1300 1468 22.92% 11.65% 65.43%-1.66 -6.2 3
1912-11-17 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-139.5 1468 1300 65.43% 11.65% 22.92%+1.66 +6.2 12
1912-11-17 Hertha Wien L 0-437.7 1291 1229 52.74% 11.77% 35.49%+0.51 -29.0 7
1912-11-17 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 4-037.7 1229 1291 35.49% 11.77% 52.74%-0.51 +29.0 4
1912-11-17 Wiener AF L 1-248.6 1413 1438 40.53% 11.78% 47.69%-0.31 -6.0 7
1912-11-17 @ Wiener Sport-Club W 2-148.6 1438 1413 47.69% 11.78% 40.53%+0.31 +6.0 8
1912-11-24 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-434.6 1203 1407 19.39% 11.58% 69.03%-2.01 -7.5 3
1912-11-24 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-134.6 1407 1203 69.03% 11.58% 19.39%+2.01 +7.5 9
1912-11-24 SC Rudolfshugel W 4-135.8 1474 1262 69.69% 11.56% 18.74%+1.93 +7.3 14
1912-11-24 @ Rapid Wien L 1-435.8 1262 1474 18.74% 11.56% 69.69%-1.93 -7.3 7
1912-11-24 First Vienna W 5-134.9 1387 1243 62.79% 11.68% 25.52%+1.28 +12.5 13
1912-11-24 @ Wiener AC L 1-534.9 1243 1387 25.52% 11.68% 62.79%-1.28 -12.5 4
1912-11-24 Floridsdorfer W 2-034.6 1444 1294 63.60% 11.67% 24.73%+1.35 +7.7 10
1912-11-24 @ Wiener AF L 0-234.6 1294 1444 24.73% 11.67% 63.60%-1.35 -7.7 3
1912-12-01 Floridsdorfer D 1-156.1 1231 1286 36.37% 11.77% 51.86%-0.60 +0.6 5
1912-12-01 @ First Vienna D 1-156.1 1286 1231 51.86% 11.77% 36.37%+0.60 -0.6 4
1912-12-01 Wiener AF W 2-151.0 1481 1452 48.25% 11.78% 39.97%+0.20 +6.0 16
1912-12-01 @ Rapid Wien L 1-251.0 1452 1481 39.97% 11.78% 48.25%-0.20 -6.0 10
1912-12-01 Hertha Wien W 3-245.8 1399 1258 62.51% 11.69% 25.80%+1.26 +3.8 15
1912-12-01 @ Wiener AC L 2-345.8 1258 1399 25.80% 11.69% 62.51%-1.26 -3.8 4
1912-12-01 SC Rudolfshugel W 5-029.7 1415 1255 64.59% 11.66% 23.75%+1.44 +17.3 11
1912-12-01 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-529.7 1255 1415 23.75% 11.66% 64.59%-1.44 -17.3 7
1912-12-08 Wiener AC W 2-149.3 1363 1403 38.49% 11.78% 49.73%-0.45 +7.2 13
1912-12-08 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-249.3 1403 1363 49.73% 11.78% 38.49%+0.45 -7.2 15
1912-12-08 First Vienna W 2-031.9 1446 1231 69.96% 11.56% 18.48%+1.96 +5.8 12
1912-12-08 @ Wiener AF L 0-231.9 1231 1446 18.48% 11.56% 69.96%-1.96 -5.8 5
1913-03-02 Floridsdorfer L 0-145.4 1370 1285 55.76% 11.75% 32.49%+0.73 -8.5 13
1913-03-02 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 1-045.4 1285 1370 32.49% 11.75% 55.76%-0.73 +8.5 6
1913-03-02 First Vienna L 0-337.5 1254 1225 48.24% 11.78% 39.98%+0.20 -20.4 4
1913-03-02 @ Hertha Wien W 3-037.5 1225 1254 39.98% 11.78% 48.24%-0.20 +20.4 7
1913-03-02 Wiener Sport-Club L 1-247.4 1396 1432 38.96% 11.78% 49.26%-0.42 -5.8 15
1913-03-02 @ Wiener AC W 2-147.4 1432 1396 49.26% 11.78% 38.96%+0.42 +5.8 13
1913-03-02 SC Rudolfshugel W 4-135.1 1452 1238 69.93% 11.56% 18.52%+1.95 +7.2 14
1913-03-02 @ Wiener AF L 1-435.1 1238 1452 18.52% 11.56% 69.93%-1.95 -7.2 7
1913-03-09 Rapid Wien L 1-440.9 1362 1487 27.56% 11.71% 60.73%-1.26 -10.4 13
1913-03-09 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-140.9 1487 1362 60.73% 11.71% 27.56%+1.26 +10.4 18
1913-03-09 SC Rudolfshugel L 0-336.3 1234 1230 44.63% 11.79% 43.58%-0.04 -19.1 4
1913-03-09 @ Hertha Wien W 3-036.3 1230 1234 43.58% 11.79% 44.63%+0.04 +19.1 9
1913-03-09 Wiener AF D 1-160.5 1390 1459 34.51% 11.76% 53.73%-0.73 +0.7 16
1913-03-09 @ Wiener AC D 1-160.5 1459 1390 53.73% 11.76% 34.51%+0.73 -0.7 15
1913-03-16 First Vienna W 4-352.3 1294 1246 50.88% 11.77% 37.34%+0.38 +5.2 8
1913-03-16 @ Floridsdorfer L 3-452.3 1246 1294 37.34% 11.77% 50.88%-0.38 -5.2 7
1913-03-16 Wiener AF L 2-343.0 1215 1458 16.12% 11.49% 72.39%-2.37 -2.4 4
1913-03-16 @ Hertha Wien W 3-243.0 1458 1215 72.39% 11.49% 16.12%+2.37 +2.4 17
1913-03-16 Wiener AC W 4-355.4 1497 1390 58.54% 11.73% 29.73%+0.94 +4.2 20
1913-03-16 @ Rapid Wien L 3-455.4 1390 1497 29.73% 11.73% 58.54%-0.94 -4.2 16
1913-03-16 1. Simmeringer SC W 2-030.7 1438 1195 72.32% 11.50% 16.18%+2.22 +5.2 15
1913-03-16 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 0-230.7 1195 1438 16.18% 11.50% 72.32%-2.22 -5.2 3
1913-03-30 SC Rudolfshugel L 1-249.8 1351 1249 57.92% 11.73% 30.35%+0.89 -8.3 13
1913-03-30 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-149.8 1249 1351 30.35% 11.73% 57.92%-0.89 +8.3 11
1913-03-30 Floridsdorfer W 5-030.5 1502 1299 68.85% 11.58% 19.57%+1.84 +14.4 22
1913-03-30 @ Rapid Wien L 0-530.5 1299 1502 19.57% 11.58% 68.85%-1.84 -14.4 8
1913-03-30 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-252.7 1386 1190 68.26% 11.59% 20.14%+1.78 -9.8 16
1913-03-30 @ Wiener AC W 2-152.7 1190 1386 20.14% 11.59% 68.26%-1.78 +9.8 5
1913-03-30 Wiener Sport-Club W 1-046.3 1461 1443 46.66% 11.78% 41.55%+0.10 +6.5 19
1913-03-30 @ Wiener AF L 0-146.3 1443 1461 41.55% 11.78% 46.66%-0.10 -6.5 15
1913-04-13 Wiener AC W 1-046.9 1241 1376 26.36% 11.69% 61.94%-1.36 +9.5 9
1913-04-13 @ First Vienna L 0-146.9 1376 1241 61.94% 11.69% 26.36%+1.36 -9.5 16
1913-04-13 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-331.4 1213 1343 26.96% 11.70% 61.34%-1.31 -12.1 4
1913-04-13 @ Hertha Wien W 3-031.4 1343 1213 61.34% 11.70% 26.96%+1.31 +12.1 15
1913-04-13 Wiener Sport-Club W 5-039.2 1516 1436 55.10% 11.75% 33.14%+0.68 +23.5 24
1913-04-13 @ Rapid Wien L 0-539.2 1436 1516 33.14% 11.75% 55.10%-0.68 -23.5 15
1913-04-20 Floridsdorfer L 1-339.9 1200 1285 32.48% 11.75% 55.77%-0.88 -8.5 5
1913-04-20 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 3-139.9 1285 1200 55.77% 11.75% 32.48%+0.88 +8.6 10
1913-04-20 Rapid Wien L 1-238.6 1250 1540 12.85% 11.37% 75.78%-2.81 -2.1 9
1913-04-20 @ First Vienna W 2-138.6 1540 1250 75.78% 11.37% 12.85%+2.81 +2.1 26
1913-04-20 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 1-345.7 1367 1355 45.81% 11.78% 42.41%+0.04 -11.6 16
1913-04-20 @ Wiener AC W 3-145.7 1355 1367 42.41% 11.78% 45.81%-0.04 +11.6 17
1913-05-01 SC Rudolfshugel W 3-038.9 1191 1258 34.87% 11.76% 53.36%-0.70 +22.4 7
1913-05-01 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-338.9 1258 1191 53.36% 11.76% 34.87%+0.70 -22.4 11
1913-05-01 Wiener AF L 2-448.1 1367 1467 30.52% 11.73% 57.75%-1.02 -7.2 17
1913-05-01 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 4-248.1 1467 1367 57.75% 11.73% 30.52%+1.02 +7.2 21
1913-05-01 Hertha Wien W 2-136.8 1542 1200 78.90% 11.22% 9.88%+3.15 +1.6 28
1913-05-01 @ Rapid Wien L 1-236.8 1200 1542 9.88% 11.22% 78.90%-3.15 -1.6 4
1913-05-04 Wiener AC L 0-433.3 1293 1355 35.46% 11.77% 52.77%-0.66 -20.3 10
1913-05-04 @ Floridsdorfer W 4-033.3 1355 1293 52.77% 11.77% 35.46%+0.66 +20.3 18
1913-05-04 Rapid Wien D 2-271.3 1475 1543 34.57% 11.76% 53.66%-0.72 +0.5 22
1913-05-04 @ Wiener AF D 2-271.3 1543 1475 53.66% 11.76% 34.57%+0.72 -0.5 29
1913-05-04 Hertha Wien W 6-131.4 1413 1199 69.90% 11.56% 18.54%+1.95 +11.4 17
1913-05-04 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-631.4 1199 1413 18.54% 11.56% 69.90%-1.95 -11.4 4
1913-05-18 Rapid Wien L 2-440.2 1214 1543 10.52% 11.26% 78.22%-3.18 -2.6 7
1913-05-18 @ 1. Simmeringer SC W 4-240.2 1543 1214 78.22% 11.26% 10.52%+3.18 +2.6 31
1913-05-18 First Vienna L 0-140.3 1235 1248 42.29% 11.78% 45.93%-0.19 -6.6 11
1913-05-18 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 1-040.3 1248 1235 45.93% 11.78% 42.29%+0.19 +6.6 11
1913-05-22 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 2-150.0 1255 1360 30.00% 11.73% 58.27%-1.06 +8.4 13
1913-05-22 @ First Vienna L 1-250.0 1360 1255 58.27% 11.73% 30.00%+1.06 -8.4 17
1913-05-22 Wiener AC W 4-361.4 1187 1376 20.90% 11.61% 67.49%-1.85 +9.0 6
1913-05-22 @ Hertha Wien L 3-461.4 1376 1187 67.49% 11.61% 20.90%+1.85 -9.0 18
1913-05-22 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-151.1 1475 1211 73.98% 11.44% 14.58%+2.42 -11.3 22
1913-05-22 @ Wiener AF W 1-051.1 1211 1475 14.58% 11.44% 73.98%-2.42 +11.3 9
1913-05-25 Wiener Sport-Club W 2-044.1 1351 1424 34.01% 11.76% 54.23%-0.76 +15.7 19
1913-05-25 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein L 0-244.1 1424 1351 54.23% 11.76% 34.01%+0.76 -15.7 17
1913-05-25 Wiener AF L 1-239.6 1263 1464 19.74% 11.59% 68.68%-1.97 -3.1 13
1913-05-25 @ First Vienna W 2-139.6 1464 1263 68.68% 11.59% 19.74%+1.97 +3.1 24
1913-05-25 SC Rudolfshugel D 2-261.1 1273 1229 50.36% 11.78% 37.87%+0.35 -0.3 11
1913-05-25 @ Floridsdorfer D 2-261.1 1229 1273 37.87% 11.78% 50.36%-0.35 +0.3 12
1913-05-25 1. Simmeringer SC L 0-433.7 1196 1222 40.41% 11.78% 47.80%-0.32 -22.8 6
1913-05-25 @ Hertha Wien W 4-033.7 1222 1196 47.80% 11.78% 40.41%+0.32 +22.8 11
1913-06-01 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein W 5-250.7 1245 1367 27.99% 11.71% 60.30%-1.22 +18.4 13
1913-06-01 @ 1. Simmeringer SC L 2-550.7 1367 1245 60.30% 11.71% 27.99%+1.22 -18.4 19
1913-06-01 Hertha Wien W 3-032.1 1273 1174 57.56% 11.74% 30.71%+0.86 +13.6 13
1913-06-01 @ Floridsdorfer L 0-332.1 1174 1273 30.71% 11.74% 57.56%-0.86 -13.6 6
1913-06-01 SC Rudolfshugel D 0-053.4 1367 1229 62.15% 11.69% 26.15%+1.23 -1.5 19
1913-06-01 @ Wiener AC D 0-053.4 1229 1367 26.15% 11.69% 62.15%-1.23 +1.5 13
1913-06-08 1. Simmeringer SC L 1-343.3 1260 1264 43.59% 11.79% 44.63%-0.11 -11.1 13
1913-06-08 @ First Vienna W 3-143.3 1264 1260 44.63% 11.79% 43.59%+0.11 +11.1 15
1913-06-08 Floridsdorfer W 4-244.7 1409 1286 60.37% 11.71% 27.91%+1.08 +6.7 19
1913-06-08 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 2-444.7 1286 1409 27.91% 11.71% 60.37%-1.08 -6.7 13
1913-06-22 Wiener Sport-Club W 3-258.1 1231 1415 21.24% 11.62% 67.14%-1.82 +9.2 15
1913-06-22 @ SC Rudolfshugel L 2-358.1 1415 1231 67.14% 11.62% 21.24%+1.82 -9.2 19
1913-06-29 Wiener AF L 2-345.5 1280 1467 20.99% 11.61% 67.40%-1.84 -3.1 13
1913-06-29 @ Floridsdorfer W 3-245.5 1467 1280 67.40% 11.61% 20.99%+1.84 +3.1 26
1913-06-29 Rapid Wien L 0-527.8 1240 1545 11.84% 11.33% 76.83%-2.96 -8.9 15
1913-06-29 @ SC Rudolfshugel W 5-027.8 1545 1240 76.83% 11.33% 11.84%+2.96 +8.9 33
1913-06-29 First Vienna W 4-136.4 1406 1249 64.31% 11.66% 24.02%+1.41 +9.2 21
1913-06-29 @ Wiener Sport-Club L 1-436.4 1249 1406 24.02% 11.66% 64.31%-1.41 -9.2 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1913-05-22 14.58% 1. Simmeringer SC 1211 1 @ Wiener AF 1475 0
2 1913-03-30 20.14% 1. Simmeringer SC 1190 2 @ Wiener AC 1386 1
3 1913-05-22 20.90% @ Hertha Wien 1187 4 Wiener AC 1376 3
4 1913-06-22 21.24% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1231 3 Wiener Sport-Club 1415 2
5 1912-11-15 22.99% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1281 1 Wiener AF 1448 0
6 1913-04-13 26.36% @ First Vienna 1241 1 Wiener AC 1376 0
7 1913-06-01 27.99% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1245 5 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1367 2
8 1913-05-22 30.00% @ First Vienna 1255 2 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1360 1
9 1913-03-30 30.35% SC Rudolfshugel 1249 2 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1351 1
10 1912-09-08 31.57% Wiener AC 1343 3 @ Wiener AF 1435 2
11 1913-03-02 32.49% Floridsdorfer 1285 1 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1370 0
12 1913-05-25 34.01% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1351 2 Wiener Sport-Club 1424 0
13 1913-05-01 34.87% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1191 3 SC Rudolfshugel 1258 0
14 1912-11-17 35.49% Hertha Wien 1229 4 @ SC Rudolfshugel 1291 0
15 1912-09-01 35.57% First Vienna 1255 4 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1317 1
16 1912-09-22 35.83% Wiener AC 1360 1 @ Wiener Sport-Club 1419 0
17 1912-11-15 36.65% Hertha Wien 1214 2 @ First Vienna 1268 0
18 1912-09-08 37.67% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1277 2 Floridsdorfer 1323 1
19 1912-12-08 38.49% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1363 2 Wiener AC 1403 1
20 1913-03-02 39.98% First Vienna 1225 3 @ Hertha Wien 1254 0
21 1912-09-22 40.15% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1259 5 1. Simmeringer SC 1287 1
22 1913-04-20 42.41% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1355 3 @ Wiener AC 1367 1
23 1913-03-09 43.58% SC Rudolfshugel 1230 3 @ Hertha Wien 1234 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1912-09-01 40.90 Wiener Sport-Club 7 1371 45.14% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1364 43.08% 11.79%
2 1912-11-17 28.99 Hertha Wien 4 1229 35.49% @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1291 52.74% 11.77%
3 1912-09-15 25.12 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 6 1285 44.18% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1 1284 44.04% 11.79%
4 1913-04-13 23.53 @ Rapid Wien 5 1516 55.10% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1436 33.14% 11.75%
5 1913-05-25 22.81 1. Simmeringer SC 4 1222 47.80% @ Hertha Wien 0 1196 40.41% 11.78%
6 1913-05-01 22.43 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 3 1191 34.87% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1258 53.36% 11.76%
7 1912-11-01 22.40 @ Rapid Wien 7 1439 66.12% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1265 22.25% 11.63%
8 1912-11-10 22.29 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 7 1331 56.31% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1242 31.95% 11.75%
9 1912-09-22 22.18 @ SC Rudolfshugel 5 1259 40.15% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1287 48.07% 11.78%
10 1913-03-02 20.44 First Vienna 3 1225 39.98% @ Hertha Wien 0 1254 48.24% 11.78%
11 1913-05-04 20.30 Wiener AC 4 1355 52.77% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1293 35.46% 11.77%
12 1913-03-09 19.07 SC Rudolfshugel 3 1230 43.58% @ Hertha Wien 0 1234 44.63% 11.79%
13 1912-09-01 18.69 First Vienna 4 1255 35.57% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1317 52.66% 11.77%
14 1913-06-01 18.42 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 5 1245 27.99% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1367 60.30% 11.71%
15 1912-11-17 18.21 Wiener AC 5 1368 63.25% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1221 25.07% 11.68%
16 1912-12-01 17.32 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1415 64.59% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1255 23.75% 11.66%
17 1912-09-15 16.57 Wiener AF 6 1427 60.54% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1304 27.75% 11.71%
18 1913-05-25 15.68 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1351 34.01% Wiener Sport-Club 0 1424 54.23% 11.76%
19 1912-09-22 15.54 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1310 52.75% Hertha Wien 0 1248 35.48% 11.77%
20 1912-11-15 14.97 Hertha Wien 2 1214 36.65% @ First Vienna 0 1268 51.58% 11.77%
21 1913-03-30 14.44 @ Rapid Wien 5 1502 68.85% Floridsdorfer 0 1299 19.57% 11.58%
22 1912-09-01 14.20 Wiener AC 4 1329 49.41% @ SC Rudolfshugel 1 1291 38.81% 11.78%
23 1913-06-01 13.63 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1273 57.56% Hertha Wien 0 1174 30.71% 11.74%
24 1912-11-24 12.52 @ Wiener AC 5 1387 62.79% First Vienna 1 1243 25.52% 11.68%
25 1912-09-01 12.18 @ Rapid Wien 3 1425 61.13% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1296 27.17% 11.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1913-05-04 71.3 @ Wiener AF 2 1475 34.57% Rapid Wien 2 1543 53.66% 11.76%
2 1912-09-08 62.5 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1412 61.03% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1284 27.27% 11.70%
3 1913-05-22 61.4 @ Hertha Wien 4 1187 20.90% Wiener AC 3 1376 67.49% 11.61%
4 1913-05-25 61.1 @ Floridsdorfer 2 1273 50.36% SC Rudolfshugel 2 1229 37.87% 11.78%
5 1913-03-09 60.5 @ Wiener AC 1 1390 34.51% Wiener AF 1 1459 53.73% 11.76%
6 1912-09-29 59.3 @ Wiener AC 1 1368 34.72% Rapid Wien 1 1435 53.51% 11.76%
7 1913-06-22 58.1 @ SC Rudolfshugel 3 1231 21.24% Wiener Sport-Club 2 1415 67.14% 11.62%
8 1912-09-08 57.7 @ Rapid Wien 1 1437 64.92% First Vienna 1 1274 23.43% 11.65%
9 1912-09-08 56.8 Wiener AC 3 1343 31.57% @ Wiener AF 2 1435 56.69% 11.74%
10 1912-11-15 56.2 @ Floridsdorfer 1 1301 55.22% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1220 33.03% 11.75%
11 1912-12-01 56.1 @ First Vienna 1 1231 36.37% Floridsdorfer 1 1286 51.86% 11.77%
12 1913-03-16 55.4 @ Rapid Wien 4 1497 58.54% Wiener AC 3 1390 29.73% 11.73%
13 1913-06-01 53.4 @ Wiener AC 0 1367 62.15% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1229 26.15% 11.69%
14 1912-11-01 53.1 @ First Vienna 0 1267 42.11% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1281 46.11% 11.78%
15 1913-03-30 52.7 1. Simmeringer SC 2 1190 20.14% @ Wiener AC 1 1386 68.26% 11.59%
16 1913-03-16 52.3 @ Floridsdorfer 4 1294 50.88% First Vienna 3 1246 37.34% 11.77%
17 1913-05-22 51.1 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1211 14.58% @ Wiener AF 0 1475 73.98% 11.44%
18 1912-12-01 51.0 @ Rapid Wien 2 1481 48.25% Wiener AF 1 1452 39.97% 11.78%
19 1913-06-01 50.7 @ 1. Simmeringer SC 5 1245 27.99% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1367 60.30% 11.71%
20 1913-05-22 50.0 @ First Vienna 2 1255 30.00% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 1360 58.27% 11.73%
21 1913-03-30 49.8 SC Rudolfshugel 2 1249 30.35% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 1 1351 57.92% 11.73%
22 1912-12-08 49.3 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1363 38.49% Wiener AC 1 1403 49.73% 11.78%
23 1912-11-15 49.1 @ SC Rudolfshugel 1 1281 22.99% Wiener AF 0 1448 65.36% 11.65%
24 1912-11-17 48.6 Wiener AF 2 1438 47.69% @ Wiener Sport-Club 1 1413 40.53% 11.78%
25 1913-05-01 48.1 Wiener AF 4 1467 57.75% @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1367 30.52% 11.73%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1913-06-29 27.8 Rapid Wien 5 1545 76.83% @ SC Rudolfshugel 0 1240 11.84% 11.33%
2 1912-11-17 29.4 Wiener AC 5 1368 63.25% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1221 25.07% 11.68%
3 1912-12-01 29.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 5 1415 64.59% SC Rudolfshugel 0 1255 23.75% 11.66%
4 1912-11-01 30.5 @ Rapid Wien 7 1439 66.12% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1265 22.25% 11.63%
5 1913-03-30 30.5 @ Rapid Wien 5 1502 68.85% Floridsdorfer 0 1299 19.57% 11.58%
6 1913-03-16 30.7 @ Wiener Sport-Club 2 1438 72.32% 1. Simmeringer SC 0 1195 16.18% 11.50%
7 1913-04-13 31.4 Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1343 61.34% @ Hertha Wien 0 1213 26.96% 11.70%
8 1913-05-04 31.4 @ Wiener Sport-Club 6 1413 69.90% Hertha Wien 1 1199 18.54% 11.56%
9 1912-12-08 31.9 @ Wiener AF 2 1446 69.96% First Vienna 0 1231 18.48% 11.56%
10 1913-06-01 32.1 @ Floridsdorfer 3 1273 57.56% Hertha Wien 0 1174 30.71% 11.74%
11 1912-09-01 32.9 @ Rapid Wien 3 1425 61.13% Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 0 1296 27.17% 11.70%
12 1913-05-04 33.3 Wiener AC 4 1355 52.77% @ Floridsdorfer 0 1293 35.46% 11.77%
13 1912-09-01 33.4 @ Wiener AF 2 1428 65.34% Hertha Wien 0 1261 23.01% 11.65%
14 1913-05-25 33.7 1. Simmeringer SC 4 1222 47.80% @ Hertha Wien 0 1196 40.41% 11.78%
15 1912-09-22 33.9 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 3 1310 52.75% Hertha Wien 0 1248 35.48% 11.77%
16 1912-09-15 34.4 Wiener Sport-Club 2 1411 61.87% @ First Vienna 0 1276 26.43% 11.69%
17 1912-11-10 34.6 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 7 1331 56.31% 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1242 31.95% 11.75%
18 1912-11-24 34.6 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1407 69.03% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1203 19.39% 11.58%
19 1912-11-24 34.6 @ Wiener AF 2 1444 63.60% Floridsdorfer 0 1294 24.73% 11.67%
20 1912-11-17 34.8 @ Wiener Amateur-Sportverein 2 1354 57.83% First Vienna 0 1253 30.44% 11.73%
21 1912-11-24 34.9 @ Wiener AC 5 1387 62.79% First Vienna 1 1243 25.52% 11.68%
22 1913-03-02 35.1 @ Wiener AF 4 1452 69.93% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1238 18.52% 11.56%
23 1912-09-15 35.6 Wiener AF 6 1427 60.54% @ 1. Simmeringer SC 1 1304 27.75% 11.71%
24 1912-09-29 35.6 Wiener Sport-Club 4 1411 66.52% @ Hertha Wien 1 1232 21.85% 11.63%
25 1912-11-24 35.8 @ Rapid Wien 4 1474 69.69% SC Rudolfshugel 1 1262 18.74% 11.56%