2025 USL Season

360 regular-season games · 16 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1st Title

Runner-Up

FC Tulsa

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Louisville City FC

17.30 points above expected

73 points · 55.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Las Vegas Lights FC

9.44 points below expected

27 points · 36.44 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Louisville City FC Conference	22	1	7	73	.811	56	19	+37	55.70	+17.30
2	Charleston Battery Playoffs	19	6	5	62	.689	62	32	+30	53.49	+8.51
3	North Carolina FC Playoffs	13	11	6	45	.500	40	39	+1	45.86	-0.86
4	Hartford Athletic Playoffs	13	12	5	44	.489	48	36	+12	38.57	+5.43
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Playoffs	12	10	8	44	.489	32	28	+4	45.21	-1.21
6	Loudoun United Playoffs	12	12	6	42	.467	45	48	-3	42.30	-0.30
7	Rhode Island FC Playoffs	10	12	8	38	.422	29	29	0	42.23	-4.23
8	Detroit City FC Playoffs	9	11	10	37	.411	33	35	-2	43.42	-6.42
9	Indy Eleven	10	15	5	35	.389	44	52	-8	37.79	-2.79
10	Tampa Bay Rowdies	9	14	7	34	.378	43	50	-7	37.66	-3.66
11	Miami FC	8	16	6	30	.333	29	44	-15	25.90	+4.10
12	Birmingham Legion	5	13	12	27	.300	36	50	-14	35.25	-8.25

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	FC Tulsa Conference	16	5	9	57	.633	50	30	+20	43.91	+13.09
2	New Mexico United Playoffs	14	10	6	48	.533	45	41	+4	43.16	+4.84
3	Sacramento Republic Playoffs	13	8	9	48	.533	44	27	+17	49.79	-1.79
4	El Paso Locomotive Playoffs	10	9	11	41	.456	47	45	+2	39.13	+1.87
5	Phoenix Rising Playoffs	9	8	13	40	.444	48	48	0	40.21	-0.21
6	San Antonio FC Playoffs	11	12	7	40	.444	39	38	+1	41.25	-1.25
7	Orange County SC Playoffs	10	11	9	39	.433	44	45	-1	38.54	+0.46
8	Colorado Springs Switchbacks Playoffs	10	13	7	37	.411	35	47	-12	43.78	-6.78
9	Lexington SC	9	12	9	36	.400	31	42	-11	39.23	-3.23
10	Oakland Roots	8	14	8	32	.356	42	52	-10	31.37	+0.63
11	Monterey Bay FC	7	15	8	29	.322	27	45	-18	35.53	-6.53
12	Las Vegas Lights FC	6	15	9	27	.300	23	50	-27	36.44	-9.44

Playoff Bracket

Eastern Conference

Conference Quarterfinals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0

Hartford Athletic 0

Nov 1

Detroit City FC 1

Louisville City FC 0

Nov 1

North Carolina FC 1

Loudoun United 0

Nov 1

Rhode Island FC 0

Charleston Battery 0

Nov 2

Conference Semifinals

Rhode Island FC 2

North Carolina FC 0

Nov 8

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0

Detroit City FC 0

Nov 8

Conference Finals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1

Rhode Island FC 0

Nov 15

Western Conference

Conference Quarterfinals

FC Tulsa 1

Colorado Springs Switchbacks 0

Nov 1

New Mexico United 2

San Antonio FC 0

Nov 1

Phoenix Rising 1

El Paso Locomotive 0

Nov 1

Orange County SC 0

Sacramento Republic 0

Nov 2

Conference Semifinals

FC Tulsa 1

Phoenix Rising 0

Nov 8

New Mexico United 2

Orange County SC 1

Nov 8

Conference Finals

FC Tulsa 3

New Mexico United 0

Nov 15

USL Championship

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0

FC Tulsa 0

Nov 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Louisville City FC	Eastern	1705	73	55.70	+17.30	99.67%	28	44	51	56	60	67	84
Charleston Battery	Eastern	1653	62	53.49	+8.51	90.45%	23	42	49	54	58	65	81
Sacramento Republic	Western	1596	48	49.79	-1.79	42.60%	19	38	45	50	55	61	78
FC Tulsa	Western	1572	57	43.91	+13.09	97.38%	17	32	39	44	49	55	74
Hartford Athletic	Eastern	1558	44	38.57	+5.43	80.64%	11	27	34	39	43	50	69
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Eastern	1549	44	45.21	-1.21	46.09%	17	34	40	45	50	57	76
New Mexico United	Western	1529	48	43.16	+4.84	77.99%	13	32	38	43	48	55	73
Rhode Island FC	Eastern	1526	38	42.23	-4.23	29.81%	15	31	37	42	47	54	71
North Carolina FC	Eastern	1516	45	45.86	-0.86	48.20%	15	34	41	46	51	57	74
Phoenix Rising	Western	1506	40	40.21	-0.21	52.02%	12	29	35	40	45	52	69
Orange County SC	Western	1499	39	38.54	+0.46	55.87%	11	27	34	38	43	50	75
Detroit City FC	Eastern	1498	37	43.42	-6.42	19.78%	15	32	39	43	48	55	71
San Antonio FC	Western	1483	40	41.25	-1.25	46.07%	12	30	37	41	46	53	71
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Eastern	1478	34	37.66	-3.66	32.77%	11	27	33	38	42	49	68
El Paso Locomotive	Western	1476	41	39.13	+1.87	63.67%	9	28	34	39	44	51	69
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	Western	1472	37	43.78	-6.78	18.70%	12	32	39	44	48	55	74
Indy Eleven	Eastern	1469	35	37.79	-2.79	37.49%	9	27	33	38	42	49	65
Loudoun United	Eastern	1466	42	42.30	-0.30	51.37%	13	31	38	42	47	54	70
Lexington SC	Western	1450	36	39.23	-3.23	35.12%	13	28	34	39	44	51	69
Oakland Roots	Western	1431	32	31.37	+0.63	57.52%	7	21	27	31	36	43	62
Birmingham Legion	Eastern	1421	27	35.25	-8.25	12.51%	10	24	31	35	40	47	67
Miami FC	Eastern	1389	30	25.90	+4.10	76.94%	2	16	21	26	30	37	57
Las Vegas Lights FC	Western	1384	27	36.44	-9.44	9.35%	10	25	32	36	41	48	64
Monterey Bay FC	Western	1374	29	35.53	-6.53	18.85%	7	25	31	35	40	47	65

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Eastern

Team	Legion	Battery	FC	Athletic	Eleven	United	FC	FC	FC	Riverhounds	FC	Rowdies
Birmingham Legion	—	1 (1.4 exp.)	2 (2.1 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	1 (1.9 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	4 (1.9 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)
Charleston Battery	4 (4.1 exp.)	—	4 (3.5 exp.)	6 (3.9 exp.)	6 (3.6 exp.)	4 (3.5 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	3 (4.4 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	6 (3.1 exp.)	3 (3.4 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)
Detroit City FC	2 (3.4 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	—	1 (3.4 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)	0 (1.9 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	4 (2.4 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)
Hartford Athletic	6 (2.7 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	4 (2.0 exp.)	—	1 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	6 (3.7 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	0 (3.2 exp.)
Indy Eleven	6 (2.9 exp.)	0 (1.9 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	—	3 (2.6 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.9 exp.)
Loudoun United	3 (3.0 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)	3 (3.5 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	—	0 (2.2 exp.)	3 (3.8 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)
Louisville City FC	4 (3.7 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	6 (3.6 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)	6 (4.2 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	—	6 (4.7 exp.)	3 (3.4 exp.)	4 (3.6 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	6 (3.7 exp.)
Miami FC	3 (2.2 exp.)	3 (1.2 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	0 (2.0 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	—	3 (1.6 exp.)	4 (1.5 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	0 (2.0 exp.)
North Carolina FC	1 (3.6 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.1 exp.)	3 (4.0 exp.)	—	4 (2.6 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	4 (3.4 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	1 (1.9 exp.)	1 (4.0 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	—	6 (2.8 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)
Rhode Island FC	4 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	0 (1.7 exp.)	3 (3.8 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	—	6 (3.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Rowdies	4 (2.8 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	6 (2.3 exp.)	6 (2.5 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	—

Eastern vs. Outside Teams

Team	Switchbacks	Locomotive	Tulsa	FC	SC	FC	United	Roots	SC	Rising	Republic	FC
Birmingham Legion	0 (1.4 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	1 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	-	-	0 (1.8 exp.)	1 (0.9 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.2 exp.)	1 (0.9 exp.)
Charleston Battery	3 (2.1 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	-	-	3 (1.6 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	3 (1.9 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)
Detroit City FC	3 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	-	0 (1.6 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	0 (1.3 exp.)	0 (1.7 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	3 (1.4 exp.)	-	1 (1.7 exp.)
Hartford Athletic	3 (1.3 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	1 (1.5 exp.)	-	0 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	3 (1.3 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	3 (1.4 exp.)	-
Indy Eleven	0 (1.4 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (1.3 exp.)	0 (1.7 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	0 (1.1 exp.)	-	1 (1.0 exp.)	-
Loudoun United	-	3 (1.1 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	0 (1.9 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	-	0 (1.7 exp.)
Louisville City FC	3 (1.6 exp.)	-	1 (2.0 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	3 (1.9 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	1 (2.2 exp.)	-	1 (2.0 exp.)	-	1 (1.4 exp.)	-
Miami FC	-	1 (1.1 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	1 (1.2 exp.)	1 (0.8 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	-	3 (0.5 exp.)	3 (0.7 exp.)
North Carolina FC	-	3 (1.7 exp.)	3 (1.3 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	-	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	3 (2.1 exp.)	-	3 (1.7 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	-	0 (1.4 exp.)
Rhode Island FC	-	1 (1.2 exp.)	-	3 (1.9 exp.)	-	1 (1.7 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (1.5 exp.)	-	1 (1.3 exp.)	0 (1.5 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 (1.3 exp.)	-	0 (1.3 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	-	1 (1.6 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)

Within Western

Team	Switchbacks	Locomotive	Tulsa	FC	SC	FC	United	Roots	SC	Rising	Republic	FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	—	2 (3.4 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	0 (3.2 exp.)	1 (3.2 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)
El Paso Locomotive	2 (2.1 exp.)	—	2 (2.4 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	6 (2.6 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	4 (3.3 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	2 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)
FC Tulsa	3 (3.1 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)	—	6 (2.8 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	1 (3.5 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	6 (2.2 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)
Las Vegas Lights FC	1 (2.3 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	—	4 (2.4 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)
Lexington SC	3 (2.3 exp.)	0 (2.9 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	—	1 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	2 (2.7 exp.)	6 (2.5 exp.)	2 (1.9 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)
Monterey Bay FC	3 (2.2 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	—	1 (2.2 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	6 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (1.5 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)
New Mexico United	4 (2.8 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	4 (3.3 exp.)	—	4 (3.6 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	3 (3.0 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)
Oakland Roots	0 (2.0 exp.)	1 (2.2 exp.)	4 (2.0 exp.)	2 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	1 (1.9 exp.)	—	3 (2.2 exp.)	1 (2.2 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.1 exp.)
Orange County SC	6 (2.3 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	2 (2.7 exp.)	0 (3.1 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	—	3 (2.5 exp.)	3 (2.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)
Phoenix Rising	4 (2.3 exp.)	2 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)	0 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	—	2 (2.2 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)
Sacramento Republic	4 (3.0 exp.)	3 (3.5 exp.)	0 (3.2 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	2 (3.6 exp.)	3 (4.1 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	4 (3.7 exp.)	3 (3.4 exp.)	2 (3.3 exp.)	—	4 (3.2 exp.)
San Antonio FC	3 (2.6 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	3 (3.4 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.2 exp.)	—

Western vs. Outside Teams

Team	Legion	Battery	FC	Athletic	Eleven	United	FC	FC	FC	Riverhounds	FC	Rowdies
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3 (1.3 exp.)	0 (0.7 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	3 (1.3 exp.)	-	0 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	3 (1.6 exp.)	-	1 (1.4 exp.)
El Paso Locomotive	0 (1.1 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	-	3 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	-	1 (1.6 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	-	1 (1.5 exp.)	-
FC Tulsa	1 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	1 (1.3 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	1 (0.8 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	3 (1.4 exp.)
Las Vegas Lights FC	-	-	-	-	3 (1.0 exp.)	3 (1.4 exp.)	0 (0.4 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (0.7 exp.)	0 (0.8 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)
Lexington SC	-	-	3 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (0.8 exp.)	1 (1.5 exp.)	3 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	1 (1.6 exp.)
Monterey Bay FC	-	-	1 (1.0 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	-	0 (1.1 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	-	0 (1.0 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	0 (0.9 exp.)
New Mexico United	-	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (1.4 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	1 (0.6 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	3 (1.5 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (1.5 exp.)	-
Oakland Roots	3 (0.9 exp.)	1 (0.6 exp.)	3 (1.1 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	-	3 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	0 (0.8 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	-
Orange County SC	1 (1.8 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	-	3 (1.6 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	1 (0.8 exp.)	-	0 (0.9 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-
Phoenix Rising	1 (1.7 exp.)	0 (0.8 exp.)	0 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	1 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	3 (1.0 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	1 (1.4 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)
Sacramento Republic	0 (1.5 exp.)	3 (1.3 exp.)	-	0 (1.3 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	-	1 (1.3 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	3 (1.2 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)
San Antonio FC	1 (1.9 exp.)	0 (0.8 exp.)	1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	3 (1.0 exp.)	-	0 (2.1 exp.)	-	3 (1.3 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.22%	10.00%	5.56%	2.36%	0.83%	0.56%	26.53%
1	10.00%	10.28%	9.03%	3.06%	1.53%	0.14%	34.03%
2	5.56%	9.03%	5.83%	2.22%	0.97%	0.42%	24.03%
3	2.36%	3.06%	2.22%	2.22%	0.14%	—	10.00%
4	0.83%	1.53%	0.97%	0.14%	0.83%	—	4.31%
5+	0.56%	0.14%	0.42%	—	—	—	1.11%
Total	26.53%	34.03%	24.03%	10.00%	4.31%	1.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.35	1.35	+0.00
SD	1.17	1.17	1.61
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 360

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	16.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
1	6.67%	20.00%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	43.33%
2	—	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	16.67%
3	—	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	43.33%	20.00%	10.00%	13.33%	—	100%

Birmingham Legion — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.20	1.67	-0.47
SD	1.06	1.24	1.17
CV	0.89	0.74	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
1	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	20.00%
2	6.67%	23.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	3.33%	10.00%	—	3.33%	—	—	16.67%
4	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	23.33%	56.67%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	100%

Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.07	1.07	+1.00
SD	1.34	0.91	1.70
CV	0.65	0.85	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	16.67%	10.00%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	46.67%
2	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	20.00%
3	—	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.33%	26.67%	30.00%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Colorado Springs Switchbacks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.57	-0.40
SD	0.91	1.28	1.59
CV	0.78	0.82	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	13.33%	10.00%	—	3.33%	—	36.67%
1	3.33%	16.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	26.67%
2	16.67%	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	30.00%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.00%	36.67%	23.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	100%

Detroit City FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.10	1.17	-0.07
SD	1.06	1.05	1.55
CV	0.97	0.90	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	26.67%
1	3.33%	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	23.33%
2	—	16.67%	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	30.00%
3	3.33%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	20.00%	40.00%	20.00%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

El Paso Locomotive — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.57	1.50	+0.07
SD	1.41	1.25	1.84
CV	0.90	0.84	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
1	20.00%	26.67%	10.00%	—	—	—	56.67%
2	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	33.33%	36.67%	26.67%	3.33%	—	—	100%

FC Tulsa — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.00	+0.67
SD	1.21	0.87	1.30
CV	0.73	0.87	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	30.00%
1	6.67%	6.67%	10.00%	—	—	—	23.33%
2	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	16.67%
3	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	13.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	30.00%	26.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	100%

Hartford Athletic — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.60	1.20	+0.40
SD	1.43	1.16	1.81
CV	0.89	0.96	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
1	10.00%	6.67%	10.00%	16.67%	—	—	43.33%
2	3.33%	10.00%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	30.00%
3	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	30.00%	23.33%	23.33%	6.67%	—	100%

Indy Eleven — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.73	-0.27
SD	0.97	1.20	1.41
CV	0.66	0.69	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	43.33%
1	16.67%	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	40.00%
2	3.33%	—	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
3	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.67%	16.67%	16.67%	13.33%	10.00%	6.67%	100%

Las Vegas Lights FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.77	1.67	-0.90
SD	0.82	1.73	1.84
CV	1.07	1.04	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	26.67%
1	10.00%	13.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	43.33%
2	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	30.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	26.67%	30.00%	26.67%	13.33%	—	3.33%	100%

Lexington SC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.03	1.40	-0.37
SD	0.76	1.22	1.47
CV	0.74	0.87	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	26.67%
1	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	20.00%
2	6.67%	13.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	3.33%	36.67%
3	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	16.67%	36.67%	30.00%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Loudoun United — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.60	-0.10
SD	1.22	1.25	1.75
CV	0.82	0.78	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%
1	16.67%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	20.00%	13.33%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	46.67%	43.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	100%

Louisville City FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.87	0.63	+1.23
SD	1.22	0.67	1.04
CV	0.66	1.06	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	16.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	36.67%
1	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	36.67%
2	—	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	20.00%
3	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	40.00%	26.67%	13.33%	3.33%	—	100%

Miami FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.97	1.47	-0.50
SD	0.93	1.04	1.25
CV	0.96	0.71	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	13.33%	10.00%	6.67%	6.67%	—	46.67%
1	3.33%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	26.67%
2	—	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	16.67%
3	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	40.00%	26.67%	10.00%	6.67%	—	100%

Monterey Bay FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.90	1.50	-0.60
SD	1.03	1.11	1.63
CV	1.14	0.74	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	20.00%
1	20.00%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	40.00%
2	—	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	16.67%
3	6.67%	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	16.67%
4	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	23.33%	26.67%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

New Mexico United — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.37	+0.13
SD	1.20	1.33	1.78
CV	0.80	0.97	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	20.00%	10.00%	13.33%	—	3.33%	—	46.67%
2	3.33%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	30.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	26.67%	30.00%	33.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	100%

North Carolina FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.30	+0.03
SD	0.99	1.06	1.27
CV	0.75	0.81	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	23.33%
1	6.67%	3.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	30.00%
2	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	30.00%
3	3.33%	—	—	13.33%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	26.67%	16.67%	20.00%	30.00%	6.67%	—	100%

Oakland Roots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.40	1.73	-0.33
SD	1.04	1.34	1.52
CV	0.74	0.77	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	30.00%
1	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	—	30.00%
2	—	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
4	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	13.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.33%	33.33%	20.00%	16.67%	6.67%	—	100%

Orange County SC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.50	-0.03
SD	1.38	1.22	1.77
CV	0.94	0.82	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
1	6.67%	10.00%	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	26.67%
2	6.67%	10.00%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	3.33%	—	10.00%	—	—	13.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.00%	36.67%	16.67%	16.67%	10.00%	—	100%

Phoenix Rising — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.60	1.60	+0.00
SD	1.16	1.28	1.39
CV	0.73	0.80	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	6.67%	10.00%	—	—	—	26.67%
1	13.33%	13.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	43.33%
2	13.33%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
3	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.00%	30.00%	26.67%	3.33%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.07	0.93	+0.13
SD	0.83	0.91	1.36
CV	0.78	0.97	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	13.33%	16.67%	3.33%	—	—	46.67%
1	16.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	30.00%
2	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	10.00%
3	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	40.00%	26.67%	30.00%	3.33%	—	—	100%

Rhode Island FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.97	0.97	+0.00
SD	1.25	0.93	1.74
CV	1.29	0.96	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	20.00%	—	—	—	—	26.67%
1	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
2	16.67%	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	40.00%
3	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	40.00%	36.67%	16.67%	6.67%	—	—	100%

Sacramento Republic — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	0.90	+0.57
SD	1.20	0.92	1.45
CV	0.82	1.03	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	16.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	36.67%
1	6.67%	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	30.00%
2	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	3.33%	—	13.33%
3	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	26.67%	36.67%	26.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	100%

San Antonio FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.30	1.27	+0.03
SD	1.44	1.11	1.63
CV	1.11	0.88	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	10.00%	6.67%	3.33%	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	3.33%	10.00%	20.00%	3.33%	—	—	36.67%
2	—	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
4	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.67%	40.00%	40.00%	10.00%	—	3.33%	100%

Tampa Bay Rowdies — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.43	1.67	-0.23
SD	1.19	0.99	1.77
CV	0.83	0.60	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 30

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.59	+8.8
Allowed	0.58	-9.1
Differential	0.92	+7.0

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Louisville City FC	73	55.70	+17.30
2	FC Tulsa	57	43.91	+13.09
3	Charleston Battery	62	53.49	+8.51
4	Hartford Athletic	44	38.57	+5.43
5	New Mexico United	48	43.16	+4.84

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Las Vegas Lights FC	27	36.44	-9.44
2	Birmingham Legion	27	35.25	-8.25
3	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	37	43.78	-6.78
4	Monterey Bay FC	29	35.53	-6.53
5	Detroit City FC	37	43.42	-6.42

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Charleston Battery	7	Apr 5 – May 24	1 in 206
2	New Mexico United	5	Mar 15 – Apr 23	1 in 76
3	Phoenix Rising	4	May 10 – Jun 7	1 in 58
4	San Antonio FC	4	Mar 8 – Mar 29	1 in 55
5	Lexington SC	3	Jun 14 – Jul 4	1 in 39

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Las Vegas Lights FC	4	May 17 – Jun 7	1 in 46
2	Rhode Island FC	3	May 24 – Jun 11	1 in 44
3	New Mexico United	4	Jul 4 – Aug 9	1 in 34
4	Indy Eleven	4	Jul 18 – Aug 16	1 in 33
5	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3	Sep 20 – Sep 27	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	FC Tulsa	14	May 10 – Aug 23	1 in 394
2	Phoenix Rising	7	Apr 19 – Jun 14	1 in 33
3	Louisville City FC	16	Jun 25 – Oct 25	1 in 32
4	Miami FC	4	Apr 12 – May 17	1 in 28
5	Hartford Athletic	7	Jul 19 – Aug 30	1 in 24

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lexington SC	11	Mar 15 – Jun 7	1 in 141
2	Orange County SC	9	Aug 23 – Oct 11	1 in 32
3	Birmingham Legion	10	Jul 19 – Oct 1	1 in 31
4	Phoenix Rising	6	Aug 30 – Oct 4	1 in 30
5	Loudoun United	7	Jun 20 – Aug 9	1 in 29

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Louisville City FC	46.54%	25.29%	12.52%	6.72%	3.96%	2.32%	1.31%	0.70%	0.40%	0.17%	0.06%	<0.01%
Charleston Battery	31.84%	27.92%	15.75%	9.57%	6.02%	3.73%	2.42%	1.37%	0.83%	0.38%	0.15%	0.03%
North Carolina FC	6.23%	11.62%	15.15%	14.74%	12.85%	11.08%	9.15%	7.23%	5.52%	3.74%	2.15%	0.54%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	5.21%	10.41%	14.00%	14.17%	13.06%	11.55%	9.78%	8.05%	6.17%	4.42%	2.51%	0.67%
Detroit City FC	3.26%	7.18%	10.94%	12.45%	12.83%	12.40%	11.30%	9.83%	8.09%	6.40%	4.09%	1.22%
Loudoun United	2.35%	5.63%	9.27%	11.11%	12.08%	12.17%	11.76%	10.96%	9.50%	7.90%	5.56%	1.71%
Rhode Island FC	2.38%	5.54%	9.10%	10.83%	12.03%	12.19%	11.85%	11.08%	9.67%	7.93%	5.68%	1.72%
Hartford Athletic	0.73%	2.12%	4.23%	6.36%	7.99%	9.84%	11.61%	12.83%	13.71%	13.63%	12.27%	4.69%
Indy Eleven	0.57%	1.73%	3.59%	5.44%	7.30%	8.98%	10.77%	12.51%	14.19%	15.00%	14.07%	5.84%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0.63%	1.77%	3.55%	5.34%	7.01%	8.89%	10.47%	12.39%	14.04%	15.04%	14.67%	6.19%
Birmingham Legion	0.25%	0.77%	1.83%	3.12%	4.54%	6.25%	8.45%	10.89%	14.00%	17.69%	21.40%	10.81%
Miami FC	-	0.01%	0.06%	0.15%	0.32%	0.60%	1.13%	2.15%	3.90%	7.70%	17.40%	66.56%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Sacramento Republic	39.70%	19.53%	12.46%	8.70%	6.30%	4.46%	3.19%	2.26%	1.62%	0.99%	0.56%	0.23%
FC Tulsa	12.49%	13.90%	12.93%	11.67%	10.31%	9.13%	7.76%	6.80%	5.58%	4.52%	3.19%	1.70%
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	12.08%	13.93%	12.79%	11.50%	10.38%	9.25%	7.94%	6.92%	5.63%	4.48%	3.32%	1.79%
New Mexico United	10.30%	12.55%	12.26%	11.56%	10.58%	9.54%	8.49%	7.46%	6.33%	5.07%	3.74%	2.13%
San Antonio FC	6.57%	8.92%	10.06%	10.31%	10.48%	9.96%	9.62%	8.96%	8.30%	7.24%	5.88%	3.69%
Phoenix Rising	4.95%	7.50%	8.76%	9.54%	9.83%	10.04%	10.04%	9.44%	9.28%	8.30%	7.26%	5.07%
Lexington SC	3.93%	6.13%	7.58%	8.34%	9.11%	9.61%	10.03%	10.11%	10.02%	9.78%	8.81%	6.55%
El Paso Locomotive	3.74%	6.03%	7.34%	8.29%	8.97%	9.69%	10.01%	10.31%	10.18%	9.81%	8.88%	6.76%
Orange County SC	3.09%	5.09%	6.67%	7.96%	8.60%	9.62%	9.94%	10.40%	10.54%	10.63%	9.79%	7.67%
Las Vegas Lights FC	1.67%	3.21%	4.37%	5.53%	6.72%	8.11%	9.26%	10.53%	11.50%	12.66%	13.73%	12.73%
Monterey Bay FC	1.20%	2.50%	3.53%	4.78%	6.06%	6.98%	8.67%	10.03%	11.70%	13.52%	15.51%	15.52%
Oakland Roots	0.29%	0.72%	1.24%	1.83%	2.67%	3.62%	5.06%	6.78%	9.33%	12.97%	19.33%	36.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Louisville City FC	38.39%	20.63%	12.34%	8.20%	5.47%	3.84%	2.80%	2.11%	1.60%	1.19%	0.90%	0.71%	0.55%	0.35%	0.29%	0.19%	0.13%	0.12%	0.08%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	-
Charleston Battery	25.67%	20.04%	13.92%	9.51%	7.14%	5.28%	4.21%	3.23%	2.50%	1.95%	1.53%	1.27%	0.97%	0.72%	0.60%	0.43%	0.34%	0.25%	0.18%	0.11%	0.09%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%
Sacramento Republic	11.36%	13.77%	12.72%	10.36%	8.83%	7.27%	6.01%	5.07%	4.37%	3.76%	3.13%	2.74%	2.25%	1.81%	1.51%	1.28%	1.04%	0.82%	0.68%	0.48%	0.34%	0.23%	0.11%	0.05%
North Carolina FC	4.41%	6.78%	7.63%	8.01%	7.77%	7.47%	6.88%	6.33%	5.83%	5.45%	4.90%	4.46%	4.04%	3.59%	3.20%	2.85%	2.48%	2.23%	1.69%	1.43%	1.09%	0.83%	0.48%	0.19%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3.59%	5.97%	6.99%	7.37%	7.38%	7.09%	6.79%	6.37%	5.90%	5.51%	5.20%	4.74%	4.38%	3.96%	3.52%	3.20%	2.83%	2.34%	2.03%	1.68%	1.39%	0.97%	0.56%	0.24%
FC Tulsa	2.39%	4.37%	5.66%	6.27%	6.48%	6.49%	6.35%	6.17%	6.07%	5.67%	5.37%	5.13%	4.74%	4.42%	4.16%	3.87%	3.37%	3.15%	2.70%	2.34%	1.93%	1.49%	0.99%	0.43%
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2.31%	4.30%	5.63%	6.13%	6.31%	6.38%	6.53%	6.08%	5.81%	5.82%	5.40%	5.10%	4.88%	4.46%	4.09%	3.84%	3.52%	3.12%	2.85%	2.44%	2.04%	1.54%	1.00%	0.41%
Detroit City FC	2.14%	3.92%	5.04%	5.65%	6.05%	6.21%	6.26%	6.15%	6.06%	5.65%	5.58%	5.25%	5.09%	4.75%	4.25%	4.00%	3.81%	3.35%	2.93%	2.48%	2.17%	1.67%	1.08%	0.48%
New Mexico United	1.94%	3.62%	4.80%	5.53%	5.91%	6.11%	6.22%	5.94%	6.08%	5.65%	5.44%	5.20%	5.04%	4.81%	4.52%	4.26%	3.81%	3.59%	3.12%	2.69%	2.25%	1.75%	1.17%	0.55%
Loudoun United	1.53%	2.87%	3.98%	4.79%	5.32%	5.46%	5.66%	5.80%	5.73%	5.58%	5.67%	5.59%	5.24%	5.07%	4.76%	4.46%	4.34%	3.98%	3.67%	3.21%	2.80%	2.19%	1.57%	0.74%
Rhode Island FC	1.56%	2.83%	3.98%	4.80%	5.05%	5.43%	5.61%	5.70%	5.68%	5.70%	5.49%	5.48%	5.24%	5.13%	4.98%	4.65%	4.34%	4.00%	3.70%	3.26%	2.74%	2.29%	1.60%	0.74%
San Antonio FC	1.02%	2.20%	3.15%	3.92%	4.33%	4.86%	5.15%	5.21%	5.51%	5.40%	5.59%	5.35%	5.36%	5.49%	5.20%	5.10%	4.79%	4.64%	4.25%	4.02%	3.46%	2.90%	2.16%	0.93%
Phoenix Rising	0.73%	1.62%	2.57%	3.18%	3.65%	4.12%	4.55%	4.84%	5.00%	5.18%	5.31%	5.34%	5.48%	5.44%	5.39%	5.39%	5.25%	5.20%	4.88%	4.58%	4.28%	3.76%	2.91%	1.36%
Lexington SC	0.51%	1.23%	1.91%	2.62%	3.15%	3.57%	3.81%	4.25%	4.51%	4.75%	4.90%	5.18%	5.38%	5.41%	5.62%	5.54%	5.59%	5.78%	5.57%	5.42%	4.98%	4.61%	3.71%	1.98%
El Paso Locomotive	0.49%	1.19%	1.92%	2.50%	3.03%	3.48%	3.70%	4.19%	4.38%	4.83%	4.96%	5.15%	5.24%	5.44%	5.66%	5.66%	5.78%	5.56%	5.61%	5.53%	5.12%	4.67%	3.79%	2.11%
Hartford Athletic	0.47%	0.98%	1.54%	2.16%	2.69%	3.03%	3.36%	3.87%	4.19%	4.43%	4.72%	5.12%	5.38%	5.50%	5.64%	5.80%	5.92%	6.01%	6.08%	5.95%	5.66%	5.06%	4.10%	2.35%
Orange County SC	0.38%	0.98%	1.57%	2.16%	2.61%	3.11%	3.49%	3.75%	4.17%	4.58%	4.83%	4.98%	5.36%	5.37%	5.72%	5.82%	5.82%	6.02%	5.89%	5.81%	5.76%	5.19%	4.34%	2.29%
Indy Eleven	0.33%	0.74%	1.28%	1.74%	2.23%	2.71%	2.99%	3.41%	3.68%	4.06%	4.48%	4.81%	4.96%	5.28%	5.71%	5.76%	6.09%	6.36%	6.59%	6.49%	6.35%	6.08%	4.93%	2.97%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0.36%	0.80%	1.25%	1.78%	2.20%	2.61%	3.01%	3.31%	3.58%	4.01%	4.33%	4.61%	4.87%	5.28%	5.54%	5.93%	6.13%	6.19%	6.37%	6.49%	6.64%	6.27%	5.25%	3.19%
Las Vegas Lights FC	0.17%	0.46%	0.79%	1.21%	1.61%	1.97%	2.30%	2.73%	3.10%	3.45%	3.92%	4.12%	4.58%	5.10%	5.37%	5.84%	6.10%	6.42%	6.97%	7.27%	7.56%	7.55%	6.95%	4.45%
Monterey Bay FC	0.12%	0.31%	0.62%	1.00%	1.24%	1.49%	1.87%	2.30%	2.59%	3.04%	3.35%	3.75%	4.15%	4.65%	5.18%	5.62%	6.04%	6.51%	7.30%	7.85%	8.31%	8.69%	8.48%	5.54%
Birmingham Legion	0.12%	0.33%	0.56%	0.85%	1.15%	1.49%	1.72%	2.16%	2.44%	2.79%	3.15%	3.64%	4.08%	4.55%	4.98%	5.51%	6.09%	6.63%	7.25%	8.05%	8.75%	9.09%	8.71%	5.92%
Oakland Roots	0.02%	0.05%	0.14%	0.24%	0.37%	0.46%	0.64%	0.91%	1.04%	1.28%	1.57%	1.83%	2.24%	2.72%	3.16%	3.74%	4.61%	5.42%	6.57%	7.90%	9.83%	12.75%	17.22%	15.30%
Miami FC	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.06%	0.08%	0.12%	0.16%	0.25%	0.30%	0.45%	0.52%	0.70%	0.98%	1.25%	1.76%	2.31%	3.05%	4.45%	6.45%	10.38%	18.87%	47.78%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Louisville City FC	46.54%	25.29%	12.52%	6.72%	3.96%	2.32%	1.31%	0.70%	0.63%
Charleston Battery	31.84%	27.92%	15.75%	9.57%	6.02%	3.73%	2.42%	1.37%	1.39%
North Carolina FC	6.23%	11.62%	15.15%	14.74%	12.85%	11.08%	9.15%	7.23%	11.95%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	5.21%	10.41%	14.00%	14.17%	13.06%	11.55%	9.78%	8.05%	13.77%
Detroit City FC	3.26%	7.18%	10.94%	12.45%	12.83%	12.40%	11.30%	9.83%	19.80%
Rhode Island FC	2.38%	5.54%	9.10%	10.83%	12.03%	12.19%	11.85%	11.08%	25.00%
Loudoun United	2.35%	5.63%	9.27%	11.11%	12.08%	12.17%	11.76%	10.96%	24.66%
Hartford Athletic	0.73%	2.12%	4.23%	6.36%	7.99%	9.84%	11.61%	12.83%	44.30%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0.63%	1.77%	3.55%	5.34%	7.01%	8.89%	10.47%	12.39%	49.94%
Indy Eleven	0.57%	1.73%	3.59%	5.44%	7.30%	8.98%	10.77%	12.51%	49.10%
Birmingham Legion	0.25%	0.77%	1.83%	3.12%	4.54%	6.25%	8.45%	10.89%	63.89%
Miami FC	-	0.01%	0.06%	0.15%	0.32%	0.60%	1.13%	2.15%	95.56%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Sacramento Republic	39.70%	19.53%	12.46%	8.70%	6.30%	4.46%	3.19%	2.26%	3.41%
FC Tulsa	12.49%	13.90%	12.93%	11.67%	10.31%	9.13%	7.76%	6.80%	15.00%
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	12.08%	13.93%	12.79%	11.50%	10.38%	9.25%	7.94%	6.92%	15.23%
New Mexico United	10.30%	12.55%	12.26%	11.56%	10.58%	9.54%	8.49%	7.46%	17.27%
San Antonio FC	6.57%	8.92%	10.06%	10.31%	10.48%	9.96%	9.62%	8.96%	25.11%
Phoenix Rising	4.95%	7.50%	8.76%	9.54%	9.83%	10.04%	10.04%	9.44%	29.91%
Lexington SC	3.93%	6.13%	7.58%	8.34%	9.11%	9.61%	10.03%	10.11%	35.16%
El Paso Locomotive	3.74%	6.03%	7.34%	8.29%	8.97%	9.69%	10.01%	10.31%	35.62%
Orange County SC	3.09%	5.09%	6.67%	7.96%	8.60%	9.62%	9.94%	10.40%	38.63%
Las Vegas Lights FC	1.67%	3.21%	4.37%	5.53%	6.72%	8.11%	9.26%	10.53%	50.62%
Monterey Bay FC	1.20%	2.50%	3.53%	4.78%	6.06%	6.98%	8.67%	10.03%	56.25%
Oakland Roots	0.29%	0.72%	1.24%	1.83%	2.67%	3.62%	5.06%	6.78%	77.80%

Points Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of points. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median points for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+14.72%

Fortress

44.17%26.39%29.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge

191 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

051.52500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.32 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 12th · Longshot: 13th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 3.12% · Tough Road: 3.12% to 6.25% · Favored: 6.25% to 12.5% · Heavy Favorite: 12.5% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.3

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 6th of 24

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

8.4%

Favored

06.25%20%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 5.5 · As Expected: 5.5 to 7.56 · Elevated: 7.56 to 10.31 · High Variance: 10.31 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.86 · Close: 3.86 to 5.22 · Off Target: 5.22 to 6.81 · Well Off Target: 6.81 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 24 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 24 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.2 · As Expected: 1.2 to 2.88 · Several Outliers: 2.88 to 5.28 · Many Outliers: 5.28 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.34 · As Expected: 2.34 to 3.91 · More Than Expected: 3.91 to 6.25 · Far More Than Expected: 6.25 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.33 points

As Expected

06.8717

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.83

Pinpoint

04.5410

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 97.92%

99.68%

Louisville City FC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 2.08%

9.35%

Las Vegas Lights FC

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 24

As Expected

02.412

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 16

Fewer Than Expected

03.116

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Balanced

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.33

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

60%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

87%

Lopsided

50%87%100%

Close Games

Expected

69%

Nail-Biters

0%65%100%

Blowouts

Expected

12%

Occasional

0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.27

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.85

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.40

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Chalk Held

0%27%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.

Probability calibration

0.62

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.04

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.051

Within Noise

00.0900.2

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Semifinals	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Louisville City FC	99.37%	79.26%	60.26%	41.11%	30.70%
Charleston Battery	98.61%	72.56%	49.45%	27.41%	18.95%
Sacramento Republic	96.59%	68.09%	45.81%	29.48%	12.79%
FC Tulsa	85.00%	53.73%	32.02%	18.16%	6.96%
New Mexico United	82.73%	46.32%	24.27%	11.94%	3.91%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	86.23%	44.26%	18.69%	7.23%	3.90%
North Carolina FC	88.05%	41.70%	16.32%	5.65%	2.81%
Phoenix Rising	70.09%	35.07%	16.47%	7.53%	2.34%
Rhode Island FC	75.00%	33.14%	12.62%	4.54%	2.22%
Hartford Athletic	55.70%	24.84%	10.05%	4.10%	2.15%
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	84.77%	40.91%	18.49%	7.70%	2.08%
San Antonio FC	74.89%	35.59%	15.98%	6.83%	1.93%
Detroit City FC	80.20%	33.53%	11.78%	3.85%	1.86%
Orange County SC	61.37%	29.18%	13.38%	5.88%	1.75%
El Paso Locomotive	64.38%	29.06%	12.34%	5.03%	1.37%
Loudoun United	75.34%	27.17%	8.30%	2.45%	1.07%
Lexington SC	64.84%	26.63%	10.44%	4.03%	1.03%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	50.06%	16.87%	5.22%	1.58%	0.66%
Indy Eleven	50.90%	16.53%	4.82%	1.45%	0.61%
Las Vegas Lights FC	49.38%	15.05%	4.51%	1.39%	0.24%
Oakland Roots	22.20%	7.67%	2.68%	0.98%	0.23%
Birmingham Legion	36.11%	9.29%	2.31%	0.59%	0.21%
Monterey Bay FC	43.75%	12.70%	3.62%	1.06%	0.18%
Miami FC	4.44%	0.83%	0.17%	0.04%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Birmingham Legion	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Indy Eleven	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	Miami FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Birmingham Legion		17.6%7.73%	35.9%3.12%	30.9%1.29%	41.1%1.07%	41.5%2.55%	12.4%8.56%	63.6%0.04%	33.2%4.24%	28.6%3.88%	33.0%2.54%	43.5%1.08%
Charleston Battery	82.4%7.73%		74.3%11.37%	68.7%10.55%	78.3%9.90%	78.1%11.76%	41.9%3.27%	87.3%1.14%	73.0%10.53%	69.1%10.72%	71.8%11.83%	77.5%9.80%
Detroit City FC	64.1%3.12%	25.7%11.37%		43.9%5.19%	56.7%4.83%	55.3%8.69%	18.6%11.22%	69.6%0.29%	46.0%11.18%	41.7%10.95%	47.9%8.53%	55.7%4.82%
Hartford Athletic	69.1%1.29%	31.3%10.55%	56.1%5.19%		62.6%2.23%	59.9%4.64%	25.7%11.35%	72.1%0.09%	52.3%7.08%	48.0%6.64%	52.7%4.54%	62.1%2.12%
Indy Eleven	58.9%1.07%	21.7%9.90%	43.3%4.83%	37.4%2.23%		47.5%4.00%	16.6%10.68%	72.3%0.08%	40.2%6.23%	35.8%5.91%	38.7%4.12%	48.0%1.84%
Loudoun United	58.5%2.55%	21.9%11.76%	44.7%8.69%	40.1%4.64%	52.5%4.00%		16.4%11.38%	60.3%0.21%	42.2%10.42%	37.0%10.05%	41.2%7.63%	50.3%4.01%
Louisville City FC	87.6%8.56%	58.1%3.27%	81.4%11.22%	74.3%11.35%	83.4%10.68%	83.6%11.38%		88.0%1.44%	78.1%9.41%	75.4%10.05%	78.5%11.59%	82.3%10.43%
Miami FC	36.4%0.04%	12.7%1.14%	30.4%0.29%	27.9%0.09%	27.7%0.08%	39.7%0.21%	12.0%1.44%		24.8%0.44%	21.5%0.39%	28.1%0.23%	26.4%0.09%
North Carolina FC	66.8%4.24%	27.0%10.53%	54.0%11.18%	47.7%7.08%	59.8%6.23%	57.8%10.42%	21.9%9.41%	75.2%0.44%		47.0%12.15%	50.7%10.27%	58.5%6.11%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	71.4%3.88%	30.9%10.72%	58.3%10.95%	52.0%6.64%	64.2%5.91%	63.0%10.05%	24.6%10.05%	78.5%0.39%	53.0%12.15%		54.8%9.72%	63.6%5.77%
Rhode Island FC	67.0%2.54%	28.2%11.83%	52.1%8.53%	47.3%4.54%	61.3%4.12%	58.8%7.63%	21.5%11.59%	71.9%0.23%	49.3%10.27%	45.2%9.72%		59.5%4.01%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	56.5%1.08%	22.5%9.80%	44.3%4.82%	37.9%2.12%	52.0%1.84%	49.7%4.01%	17.7%10.43%	73.6%0.09%	41.5%6.11%	36.4%5.77%	40.5%4.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	Las Vegas Lights FC	Lexington SC	Monterey Bay FC	New Mexico United	Oakland Roots	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks		52.1%8.05%	35.4%9.89%	65.3%6.31%	55.1%8.08%	67.1%5.49%	42.5%9.61%	60.3%2.80%	49.5%7.78%	47.6%8.60%	29.5%8.98%	50.1%9.19%
El Paso Locomotive	47.9%8.05%		36.1%7.96%	64.7%3.59%	53.3%5.37%	66.0%3.16%	40.6%7.67%	60.0%1.46%	48.5%4.88%	46.4%5.88%	28.7%9.78%	48.1%6.56%
FC Tulsa	64.6%9.89%	63.9%7.96%		76.4%6.23%	69.2%8.12%	78.1%5.37%	56.7%9.89%	74.5%2.87%	62.5%7.83%	61.5%8.67%	42.9%8.82%	63.4%9.35%
Las Vegas Lights FC	34.7%6.31%	35.3%3.59%	23.6%6.23%		39.5%3.59%	51.6%1.98%	27.4%5.88%	45.6%0.86%	33.6%3.31%	31.1%4.29%	19.0%8.61%	33.6%4.73%
Lexington SC	44.9%8.08%	46.7%5.37%	30.8%8.12%	60.5%3.59%		61.5%3.21%	37.1%7.95%	57.0%1.41%	44.2%4.83%	42.3%6.10%	26.2%9.61%	43.6%6.55%
Monterey Bay FC	32.9%5.49%	34.0%3.16%	21.9%5.37%	48.4%1.98%	38.5%3.21%		25.2%5.20%	43.7%0.72%	32.5%2.89%	29.4%3.65%	18.2%7.83%	32.7%4.26%
New Mexico United	57.5%9.61%	59.4%7.67%	43.3%9.89%	72.6%5.88%	62.9%7.95%	74.8%5.20%		67.6%2.48%	55.0%7.34%	54.2%8.52%	36.7%9.35%	57.0%8.85%
Oakland Roots	39.7%2.80%	40.0%1.46%	25.5%2.87%	54.4%0.86%	43.0%1.41%	56.3%0.72%	32.4%2.48%		38.9%1.29%	35.2%1.71%	23.6%4.63%	39.0%1.97%
Orange County SC	50.5%7.78%	51.5%4.88%	37.5%7.83%	66.4%3.31%	55.8%4.83%	67.5%2.89%	45.0%7.34%	61.1%1.29%		48.4%5.53%	31.6%9.47%	51.2%6.22%
Phoenix Rising	52.4%8.60%	53.6%5.88%	38.5%8.67%	68.9%4.29%	57.7%6.10%	70.6%3.65%	45.8%8.52%	64.8%1.71%	51.6%5.53%		33.1%9.72%	53.0%7.42%
Sacramento Republic	70.5%8.98%	71.3%9.78%	57.1%8.82%	81.0%8.61%	73.8%9.61%	81.8%7.83%	63.3%9.35%	76.4%4.63%	68.4%9.47%	66.9%9.72%		69.9%9.79%
San Antonio FC	49.9%9.19%	51.9%6.56%	36.6%9.35%	66.4%4.73%	56.4%6.55%	67.3%4.26%	43.0%8.85%	61.0%1.97%	48.8%6.22%	47.0%7.42%	30.1%9.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Birmingham Legion	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Indy Eleven	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	Miami FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Birmingham Legion		18.4%2.27%	41.4%0.54%	34.7%0.37%	43.5%0.22%	41.5%0.46%	13.7%2.87%	60.0%<0.01%	33.5%0.88%	30.7%0.87%	33.2%0.59%	47.0%0.21%
Charleston Battery	81.6%2.27%		74.4%8.55%	67.3%6.46%	77.7%4.02%	77.2%6.86%	42.1%9.82%	84.3%0.24%	70.1%10.55%	67.5%11.24%	70.8%8.27%	76.8%4.30%
Detroit City FC	58.6%0.54%	25.6%8.55%		45.3%1.67%	56.3%1.10%	56.4%1.87%	20.4%9.20%	68.0%0.05%	47.4%3.46%	44.0%3.57%	46.5%2.47%	54.2%1.05%
Hartford Athletic	65.3%0.37%	32.7%6.46%	54.7%1.67%		60.0%0.65%	60.0%1.30%	26.7%7.44%	90.5%0.02%	51.4%2.30%	48.0%2.42%	53.8%1.53%	64.0%0.69%
Indy Eleven	56.5%0.22%	22.3%4.02%	43.7%1.10%	40.0%0.65%		49.4%0.86%	16.4%5.01%	55.6%<0.01%	38.8%1.52%	35.9%1.58%	40.5%1.13%	45.2%0.43%
Loudoun United	58.5%0.46%	22.8%6.86%	43.6%1.87%	40.0%1.30%	50.6%0.86%		17.0%7.64%	63.4%0.04%	42.8%2.63%	38.5%2.83%	39.7%1.84%	51.2%0.85%
Louisville City FC	86.3%2.87%	57.9%9.82%	79.6%9.20%	73.3%7.44%	83.6%5.01%	83.0%7.64%		87.2%0.26%	77.9%10.65%	74.6%11.86%	77.3%9.43%	81.4%5.08%
Miami FC	40.0%<0.01%	15.7%0.24%	32.0%0.05%	9.5%0.02%	44.4%<0.01%	36.6%0.04%	12.8%0.26%		28.8%0.07%	28.8%0.07%	27.3%0.04%	26.7%0.01%
North Carolina FC	66.5%0.88%	29.9%10.55%	52.6%3.46%	48.6%2.30%	61.2%1.52%	57.2%2.63%	22.1%10.65%	71.2%0.07%		46.1%4.74%	51.7%3.35%	57.4%1.55%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	69.3%0.87%	32.5%11.24%	56.0%3.57%	52.0%2.42%	64.1%1.58%	61.5%2.83%	25.4%11.86%	71.2%0.07%	53.9%4.74%		52.8%3.45%	60.3%1.63%
Rhode Island FC	66.8%0.59%	29.2%8.27%	53.5%2.47%	46.2%1.53%	59.5%1.13%	60.3%1.84%	22.7%9.43%	72.7%0.04%	48.3%3.35%	47.2%3.45%		55.8%1.05%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	53.0%0.21%	23.2%4.30%	45.8%1.05%	36.0%0.69%	54.8%0.43%	48.8%0.85%	18.6%5.08%	73.3%0.01%	42.6%1.55%	39.7%1.63%	44.2%1.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	Las Vegas Lights FC	Lexington SC	Monterey Bay FC	New Mexico United	Oakland Roots	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks		51.4%3.34%	37.4%6.54%	65.5%1.65%	55.3%2.99%	65.6%1.32%	43.9%5.48%	60.7%0.83%	49.1%3.16%	48.1%3.88%	31.4%7.72%	49.6%4.00%
El Paso Locomotive	48.6%3.34%		35.2%4.50%	62.6%0.93%	52.8%1.80%	67.1%0.79%	41.4%3.71%	55.9%0.48%	47.3%1.98%	45.5%2.60%	29.9%6.24%	47.6%2.68%
FC Tulsa	62.6%6.54%	64.8%4.50%		77.0%2.23%	67.5%4.21%	75.6%1.93%	55.7%7.57%	70.8%1.12%	61.3%4.41%	60.7%5.53%	43.3%10.09%	63.4%5.60%
Las Vegas Lights FC	34.5%1.65%	37.4%0.93%	23.0%2.23%		40.0%0.93%	54.0%0.37%	28.2%1.84%	44.6%0.19%	35.5%0.99%	33.3%1.24%	20.0%3.40%	35.4%1.29%
Lexington SC	44.7%2.99%	47.2%1.80%	32.5%4.21%	60.0%0.93%		62.0%0.72%	37.7%3.33%	57.4%0.40%	42.6%1.92%	42.5%2.37%	27.5%5.58%	43.6%2.39%
Monterey Bay FC	34.4%1.32%	32.9%0.79%	24.4%1.93%	46.0%0.37%	38.0%0.72%		27.9%1.55%	41.0%0.17%	34.9%0.83%	30.2%1.02%	18.4%2.97%	32.9%1.03%
New Mexico United	56.1%5.48%	58.6%3.71%	44.3%7.57%	71.8%1.84%	62.3%3.33%	72.1%1.55%		63.4%0.90%	55.2%3.72%	54.6%4.50%	38.1%9.03%	56.2%4.71%
Oakland Roots	39.3%0.83%	44.1%0.48%	29.2%1.12%	55.4%0.19%	42.6%0.40%	59.0%0.17%	36.6%0.90%		38.2%0.45%	39.6%0.61%	24.2%1.85%	36.8%0.65%
Orange County SC	50.9%3.16%	52.7%1.98%	38.7%4.41%	64.5%0.99%	57.4%1.92%	65.1%0.83%	44.8%3.72%	61.8%0.45%		48.3%2.63%	33.0%6.34%	52.0%2.76%
Phoenix Rising	51.9%3.88%	54.5%2.60%	39.3%5.53%	66.7%1.24%	57.5%2.37%	69.8%1.02%	45.4%4.50%	60.4%0.61%	51.7%2.63%		33.5%7.54%	52.9%3.15%
Sacramento Republic	68.6%7.72%	70.1%6.24%	56.7%10.09%	80.0%3.40%	72.5%5.58%	81.6%2.97%	61.9%9.03%	75.8%1.85%	67.0%6.34%	66.5%7.54%		67.9%7.32%
San Antonio FC	50.4%4.00%	52.4%2.68%	36.6%5.60%	64.6%1.29%	56.4%2.39%	67.1%1.03%	43.8%4.71%	63.2%0.65%	48.0%2.76%	47.1%3.15%	32.1%7.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Birmingham Legion	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Indy Eleven	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	Miami FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Birmingham Legion		18.0%0.53%	35.9%0.13%	34.6%0.16%	39.4%0.07%	33.0%0.09%	14.1%0.73%	66.7%<0.01%	39.0%0.18%	36.8%0.19%	34.1%0.16%	45.1%0.07%
Charleston Battery	82.0%0.53%		72.4%3.02%	66.5%2.39%	78.5%1.15%	75.0%2.10%	42.2%26.45%	81.2%0.03%	70.0%4.21%	66.2%5.07%	69.7%3.20%	76.4%1.28%
Detroit City FC	64.1%0.13%	27.6%3.02%		43.3%0.60%	53.1%0.28%	53.5%0.43%	22.2%4.46%	60.0%0.01%	44.6%0.86%	42.0%1.00%	48.3%0.70%	52.0%0.29%
Hartford Athletic	65.4%0.16%	33.5%2.39%	56.7%0.60%		58.8%0.28%	60.0%0.43%	27.8%3.42%	90.0%0.01%	53.2%0.83%	48.7%0.92%	54.8%0.70%	64.0%0.30%
Indy Eleven	60.6%0.07%	21.5%1.15%	46.9%0.28%	41.2%0.28%		51.0%0.19%	18.8%1.64%	50.0%<0.01%	40.8%0.36%	35.2%0.44%	47.8%0.30%	53.7%0.12%
Loudoun United	67.0%0.09%	25.0%2.10%	46.5%0.43%	40.0%0.43%	49.0%0.19%		19.5%3.10%	46.7%0.01%	38.9%0.54%	37.8%0.66%	39.6%0.50%	54.0%0.21%
Louisville City FC	85.9%0.73%	57.8%26.45%	77.8%4.46%	72.2%3.42%	81.2%1.64%	80.5%3.10%		86.7%0.04%	76.3%6.63%	73.0%7.40%	76.2%4.69%	80.4%1.71%
Miami FC	33.3%<0.01%	18.8%0.03%	40.0%0.01%	10.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	53.3%0.01%	13.3%0.04%		28.6%0.01%	31.2%0.02%	44.4%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%
North Carolina FC	61.0%0.18%	30.0%4.21%	55.4%0.86%	46.8%0.83%	59.2%0.36%	61.1%0.54%	23.7%6.63%	71.4%0.01%		45.7%1.37%	47.9%0.88%	55.1%0.44%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	63.2%0.19%	33.8%5.07%	58.0%1.00%	51.3%0.92%	64.8%0.44%	62.2%0.66%	27.0%7.40%	68.8%0.02%	54.3%1.37%		53.8%1.15%	59.5%0.47%
Rhode Island FC	65.9%0.16%	30.3%3.20%	51.7%0.70%	45.2%0.70%	52.2%0.30%	60.4%0.50%	23.8%4.69%	55.6%0.02%	52.1%0.88%	46.2%1.15%		64.8%0.32%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	54.9%0.07%	23.6%1.28%	48.0%0.29%	36.0%0.30%	46.3%0.12%	46.0%0.21%	19.6%1.71%	100.0%<0.01%	44.9%0.44%	40.5%0.47%	35.2%0.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	Las Vegas Lights FC	Lexington SC	Monterey Bay FC	New Mexico United	Oakland Roots	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks		50.3%1.11%	36.6%3.27%	68.7%0.39%	52.3%0.90%	62.9%0.31%	43.0%2.38%	56.5%0.25%	49.2%1.23%	45.2%1.55%	32.1%5.63%	50.0%1.47%
El Paso Locomotive	49.7%1.11%		37.1%2.14%	58.5%0.28%	48.7%0.59%	60.8%0.22%	40.3%1.44%	60.0%0.17%	48.7%0.86%	47.0%1.06%	29.2%3.45%	48.0%1.02%
FC Tulsa	63.4%3.27%	62.9%2.14%		76.0%0.76%	67.3%1.82%	76.9%0.61%	56.6%4.39%	72.2%0.43%	61.1%2.31%	60.5%2.83%	45.1%10.66%	62.4%2.78%
Las Vegas Lights FC	31.3%0.39%	41.5%0.28%	24.0%0.76%		43.3%0.23%	52.6%0.08%	33.1%0.54%	40.6%0.06%	37.2%0.30%	34.2%0.37%	22.5%1.16%	36.2%0.34%
Lexington SC	47.7%0.90%	51.3%0.59%	32.7%1.82%	56.7%0.23%		57.6%0.18%	42.5%1.29%	56.9%0.15%	43.8%0.67%	41.7%0.87%	28.0%2.88%	43.3%0.85%
Monterey Bay FC	37.1%0.31%	39.2%0.22%	23.1%0.61%	47.4%0.08%	42.4%0.18%		28.3%0.43%	44.7%0.05%	32.3%0.26%	32.5%0.30%	21.0%0.91%	33.1%0.27%
New Mexico United	57.0%2.38%	59.7%1.44%	43.4%4.39%	66.9%0.54%	57.5%1.29%	71.7%0.43%		62.6%0.36%	54.9%1.75%	54.9%2.07%	38.9%7.60%	55.8%2.04%
Oakland Roots	43.5%0.25%	40.0%0.17%	27.8%0.43%	59.4%0.06%	43.1%0.15%	55.3%0.05%	37.4%0.36%		40.8%0.17%	37.3%0.21%	28.6%0.61%	44.3%0.22%
Orange County SC	50.8%1.23%	51.3%0.86%	38.9%2.31%	62.8%0.30%	56.2%0.67%	67.7%0.26%	45.1%1.75%	59.2%0.17%		46.8%1.11%	33.0%3.62%	51.8%1.10%
Phoenix Rising	54.8%1.55%	53.0%1.06%	39.5%2.83%	65.8%0.37%	58.3%0.87%	67.5%0.30%	45.1%2.07%	62.7%0.21%	53.2%1.11%		35.1%4.75%	53.2%1.34%
Sacramento Republic	67.9%5.63%	70.8%3.45%	54.9%10.66%	77.5%1.16%	72.0%2.88%	79.0%0.91%	61.1%7.60%	71.4%0.61%	67.0%3.62%	64.9%4.75%		68.0%4.55%
San Antonio FC	50.0%1.47%	52.0%1.02%	37.6%2.78%	63.8%0.34%	56.7%0.85%	66.9%0.27%	44.2%2.04%	55.7%0.22%	48.2%1.10%	46.8%1.34%	32.0%4.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	Las Vegas Lights FC	Lexington SC	Monterey Bay FC	New Mexico United	Oakland Roots	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC	Birmingham Legion	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Indy Eleven	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	Miami FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Birmingham Legion	58.5%0.05%	45.2%0.03%	26.2%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	24.0%0.03%	62.5%<0.01%	30.0%0.06%	42.9%<0.01%	46.4%0.03%	41.5%0.04%	30.1%0.17%	42.2%0.04%
Charleston Battery	76.3%2.08%	77.2%1.41%	65.4%5.01%	85.9%0.38%	79.3%1.12%	87.0%0.28%	72.9%3.29%	77.0%0.27%	73.4%1.54%	71.0%2.02%	60.8%8.17%	76.2%1.85%
Detroit City FC	53.2%0.27%	59.5%0.21%	43.7%0.73%	70.0%0.06%	59.5%0.16%	69.2%0.04%	49.9%0.44%	57.6%0.03%	53.4%0.21%	56.0%0.30%	39.6%1.15%	56.6%0.24%
Hartford Athletic	65.8%0.33%	60.3%0.18%	45.0%0.71%	67.4%0.05%	59.9%0.17%	75.0%0.04%	53.5%0.48%	76.9%0.05%	59.9%0.25%	62.1%0.32%	41.8%1.21%	61.8%0.30%
Indy Eleven	55.2%0.12%	50.6%0.08%	34.9%0.26%	81.2%0.02%	65.6%0.06%	58.3%0.01%	45.9%0.17%	60.0%0.01%	42.7%0.10%	41.2%0.11%	34.2%0.41%	42.0%0.10%
Loudoun United	53.0%0.17%	52.5%0.12%	39.5%0.45%	63.9%0.04%	53.3%0.09%	64.3%0.03%	37.5%0.30%	63.0%0.03%	51.9%0.16%	54.5%0.19%	35.0%0.72%	54.1%0.17%
Louisville City FC	81.9%3.24%	80.4%2.02%	72.0%7.49%	90.0%0.56%	82.2%1.66%	88.7%0.46%	76.3%4.92%	86.0%0.40%	80.1%2.46%	77.1%3.11%	67.2%11.98%	79.7%2.79%
Miami FC	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	13.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
North Carolina FC	57.7%0.45%	64.4%0.26%	46.9%1.00%	71.3%0.09%	61.3%0.24%	76.4%0.06%	49.5%0.65%	60.3%0.06%	55.0%0.34%	52.1%0.41%	39.2%1.70%	58.3%0.40%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	61.1%0.56%	61.9%0.40%	48.5%1.28%	71.6%0.10%	63.5%0.29%	71.6%0.07%	57.8%0.88%	65.1%0.06%	57.9%0.43%	64.3%0.54%	43.2%2.11%	63.5%0.50%
Rhode Island FC	55.7%0.32%	57.9%0.24%	47.1%0.83%	69.0%0.07%	62.0%0.16%	66.7%0.04%	50.4%0.57%	56.1%0.04%	52.9%0.27%	53.7%0.34%	39.0%1.35%	56.9%0.32%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	48.3%0.12%	49.3%0.07%	36.6%0.29%	70.6%0.02%	37.5%0.05%	75.0%0.02%	42.8%0.18%	58.8%0.02%	56.2%0.10%	53.7%0.14%	31.2%0.49%	53.7%0.10%
Colorado Springs Switchbacks													41.5%0.05%	23.7%2.08%	46.8%0.27%	34.2%0.33%	44.8%0.12%	47.0%0.17%	18.1%3.24%	66.7%<0.01%	42.3%0.45%	38.9%0.56%	44.3%0.32%	51.7%0.12%
El Paso Locomotive													54.8%0.03%	22.8%1.41%	40.5%0.21%	39.7%0.18%	49.4%0.08%	47.5%0.12%	19.6%2.02%	100.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.26%	38.1%0.40%	42.1%0.24%	50.7%0.07%
FC Tulsa													73.8%0.11%	34.6%5.01%	56.3%0.73%	55.0%0.71%	65.1%0.26%	60.5%0.45%	28.0%7.49%	75.0%<0.01%	53.1%1.00%	51.5%1.28%	52.9%0.83%	63.4%0.29%
Las Vegas Lights FC													0.0%<0.01%	14.1%0.38%	30.0%0.06%	32.6%0.05%	18.8%0.02%	36.1%0.04%	10.0%0.56%	0.0%<0.01%	28.7%0.09%	28.4%0.10%	31.0%0.07%	29.4%0.02%
Lexington SC													76.0%0.03%	20.7%1.12%	40.5%0.16%	40.1%0.17%	34.4%0.06%	46.7%0.09%	17.8%1.66%	50.0%<0.01%	38.7%0.24%	36.5%0.29%	38.0%0.16%	62.5%0.05%
Monterey Bay FC													37.5%<0.01%	13.0%0.28%	30.8%0.04%	25.0%0.04%	41.7%0.01%	35.7%0.03%	11.3%0.46%		23.6%0.06%	28.4%0.07%	33.3%0.04%	25.0%0.02%
New Mexico United													70.0%0.06%	27.1%3.29%	50.1%0.44%	46.5%0.48%	54.1%0.17%	62.5%0.30%	23.7%4.92%	100.0%<0.01%	50.5%0.65%	42.2%0.88%	49.6%0.57%	57.2%0.18%
Oakland Roots													57.1%<0.01%	23.0%0.27%	42.4%0.03%	23.1%0.05%	40.0%0.01%	37.0%0.03%	14.0%0.40%		39.7%0.06%	34.9%0.06%	43.9%0.04%	41.2%0.02%
Orange County SC													53.6%0.03%	26.6%1.54%	46.6%0.21%	40.1%0.25%	57.3%0.10%	48.1%0.16%	19.9%2.46%	50.0%<0.01%	45.0%0.34%	42.1%0.43%	47.1%0.27%	43.8%0.10%
Phoenix Rising													58.5%0.04%	29.0%2.02%	44.0%0.30%	37.9%0.32%	58.8%0.11%	45.5%0.19%	22.9%3.11%	25.0%<0.01%	47.9%0.41%	35.7%0.54%	46.3%0.34%	46.3%0.14%
Sacramento Republic													69.9%0.17%	39.2%8.17%	60.4%1.15%	58.2%1.21%	65.8%0.41%	65.0%0.72%	32.8%11.98%	86.7%0.01%	60.8%1.70%	56.8%2.11%	61.0%1.35%	68.8%0.49%
San Antonio FC													57.8%0.04%	23.8%1.85%	43.4%0.24%	38.2%0.30%	58.0%0.10%	45.9%0.17%	20.3%2.79%	66.7%<0.01%	41.7%0.40%	36.5%0.50%	43.1%0.32%	46.3%0.10%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Semifinals	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship	Actual Outcome
Louisville City FC	81.62%	64.04%	44.64%	33.45%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
Charleston Battery	73.44%	53.96%	26.52%	18.56%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
Sacramento Republic	70.34%	48.84%	28.52%	11.73%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
FC Tulsa	70.39%	47.44%	28.11%	10.70%	Eliminated in USL Championship
New Mexico United	63.68%	30.69%	14.20%	4.73%	Eliminated in Conference Finals
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	56.29%	21.22%	7.57%	3.65%	Won USL Championship
North Carolina FC	64.29%	23.14%	7.43%	3.24%	Eliminated in Conference Semifinals
Hartford Athletic	43.70%	17.33%	6.44%	3.15%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
Phoenix Rising	46.70%	19.39%	8.01%	2.27%	Eliminated in Conference Semifinals
El Paso Locomotive	53.30%	19.76%	7.36%	1.80%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
San Antonio FC	36.32%	13.80%	5.27%	1.42%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
Orange County SC	29.66%	11.04%	4.92%	1.34%	Eliminated in Conference Semifinals
Rhode Island FC	26.56%	6.76%	3.06%	1.33%	Eliminated in Conference Finals
Colorado Springs Switchbacks	29.61%	9.05%	3.60%	0.91%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
Loudoun United	35.71%	8.29%	2.23%	0.88%	Eliminated in Conference Quarterfinals
Detroit City FC	18.38%	5.26%	2.12%	0.83%	Eliminated in Conference Semifinals

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC
Charleston Battery								73.4%100.00%
Detroit City FC					18.4%100.00%
Hartford Athletic							43.7%100.00%
Loudoun United						35.7%100.00%
Louisville City FC		81.6%100.00%
North Carolina FC				64.3%100.00%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds			56.3%100.00%
Rhode Island FC	26.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks			29.6%100.00%
El Paso Locomotive						53.3%100.00%
FC Tulsa	70.4%100.00%
New Mexico United								63.7%100.00%
Orange County SC							29.7%100.00%
Phoenix Rising		46.7%100.00%
Sacramento Republic					70.3%100.00%
San Antonio FC				36.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC
Charleston Battery		75.5%13.34%	68.9%9.31%			74.8%38.63%	70.5%12.16%
Detroit City FC	24.5%13.34%		30.7%0.74%			41.8%3.26%	38.8%1.03%
Hartford Athletic	31.1%9.31%	69.3%0.74%		69.8%5.45%	25.5%16.80%	49.4%9.93%		63.0%1.46%
Loudoun United			30.2%5.45%		16.5%21.47%		31.8%7.01%	49.2%1.77%
Louisville City FC			74.5%16.80%	83.5%21.47%			76.4%21.83%	78.6%21.52%
North Carolina FC	25.2%38.63%	58.2%3.26%	50.6%9.93%				52.1%12.47%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29.5%12.16%	61.2%1.03%		68.2%7.01%	23.6%21.83%	47.9%12.47%		60.4%1.80%
Rhode Island FC			37.0%1.46%	50.8%1.77%	21.4%21.52%		39.6%1.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks		43.2%1.75%		34.3%5.66%		38.9%1.43%	27.9%20.77%
El Paso Locomotive	56.8%1.75%		30.1%16.90%	35.8%13.99%	53.6%3.01%		26.7%9.62%	55.9%8.02%
FC Tulsa		69.9%16.90%			66.0%20.83%	65.3%14.62%		68.3%18.04%
New Mexico United	65.7%5.66%	64.2%13.99%				59.7%12.50%	33.4%31.52%
Orange County SC		46.4%3.01%	34.0%20.83%			42.4%2.65%		45.2%3.18%
Phoenix Rising	61.1%1.43%		34.7%14.62%	40.3%12.50%	57.6%2.65%		31.0%8.42%	60.3%7.08%
Sacramento Republic	72.1%20.77%	73.3%9.62%		66.6%31.52%		69.0%8.42%
San Antonio FC		44.1%8.02%	31.7%18.04%		54.8%3.18%	39.7%7.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC
Charleston Battery			67.8%5.75%	78.6%3.59%	36.5%34.34%	72.9%3.36%	69.6%6.93%
Detroit City FC			35.9%1.24%	47.7%0.66%		43.5%1.07%	39.1%1.45%	39.5%0.85%
Hartford Athletic	32.2%5.75%	64.1%1.24%		67.0%0.73%	25.5%6.61%	49.9%1.58%		58.9%1.43%
Loudoun United	21.4%3.59%	52.3%0.66%	33.0%0.73%		17.7%1.88%		29.9%0.92%	51.1%0.52%
Louisville City FC	63.5%34.34%		74.5%6.61%	82.3%1.88%		78.0%13.00%	75.6%8.21%
North Carolina FC	27.1%3.36%	56.5%1.07%	50.1%1.58%		22.0%13.00%		54.0%1.93%	55.7%2.19%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30.4%6.93%	60.9%1.45%		70.1%0.92%	24.4%8.21%	46.0%1.93%		58.6%1.78%
Rhode Island FC		60.5%0.85%	41.1%1.43%	48.9%0.52%		44.3%2.19%	41.4%1.78%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks		44.3%1.91%		35.6%2.27%	40.9%1.47%	38.7%1.80%		40.3%1.61%
El Paso Locomotive	55.7%1.91%		31.2%4.88%	36.2%2.73%	54.2%2.09%		28.1%6.82%	55.6%1.34%
FC Tulsa		68.8%4.88%		62.4%12.50%		64.5%4.91%	53.7%23.03%	67.3%2.12%
New Mexico United	64.4%2.27%	63.8%2.73%	37.6%12.50%		59.3%4.44%	60.0%2.73%	33.5%6.02%
Orange County SC	59.1%1.47%	45.8%2.09%		40.7%4.44%		41.6%1.98%		44.2%1.06%
Phoenix Rising	61.3%1.80%		35.5%4.91%	40.0%2.73%	58.4%1.98%		32.4%6.64%	57.5%1.33%
Sacramento Republic		71.9%6.82%	46.3%23.03%	66.5%6.02%		67.6%6.64%		70.5%6.34%
San Antonio FC	59.7%1.61%	44.4%1.34%	32.7%2.12%		55.8%1.06%	42.5%1.33%	29.5%6.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	El Paso Locomotive	FC Tulsa	New Mexico United	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising	Sacramento Republic	San Antonio FC	Charleston Battery	Detroit City FC	Hartford Athletic	Loudoun United	Louisville City FC	North Carolina FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rhode Island FC
Charleston Battery	75.6%0.97%	77.6%1.93%	68.3%7.38%	73.4%3.70%	75.7%1.33%	73.7%2.19%	64.3%7.58%	75.2%1.43%
Detroit City FC	57.7%0.08%	47.6%0.15%	35.8%0.58%	43.2%0.32%	42.6%0.11%	38.8%0.18%	33.7%0.60%	49.5%0.11%
Hartford Athletic	71.6%0.25%	67.3%0.48%	41.1%1.80%	48.7%0.89%	65.2%0.28%	64.1%0.53%	38.5%1.86%	67.5%0.35%
Loudoun United	57.0%0.09%	59.9%0.16%	35.0%0.63%	38.3%0.32%	54.5%0.10%	56.9%0.14%	26.8%0.64%	56.5%0.14%
Louisville City FC	79.9%1.61%	81.3%3.39%	72.8%12.61%	77.2%6.33%	79.1%2.21%	80.2%3.51%	70.5%12.65%	79.8%2.32%
North Carolina FC	62.6%0.26%	64.4%0.52%	37.6%2.10%	41.6%1.06%	58.2%0.36%	57.5%0.64%	33.6%2.13%	62.3%0.36%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	68.9%0.22%	68.6%0.52%	41.5%2.14%	45.7%1.13%	68.0%0.38%	59.3%0.60%	39.3%2.17%	64.3%0.41%
Rhode Island FC	63.8%0.12%	58.5%0.21%	39.2%0.88%	46.0%0.44%	48.3%0.14%	45.8%0.22%	38.8%0.90%	43.9%0.15%
Colorado Springs Switchbacks									24.4%0.97%	42.3%0.08%	28.4%0.25%	43.0%0.09%	20.1%1.61%	37.4%0.26%	31.1%0.22%	36.2%0.12%
El Paso Locomotive									22.4%1.93%	52.4%0.15%	32.7%0.48%	40.1%0.16%	18.7%3.39%	35.6%0.52%	31.4%0.52%	41.5%0.21%
FC Tulsa									31.7%7.38%	64.2%0.58%	58.9%1.80%	65.0%0.63%	27.2%12.61%	62.4%2.10%	58.5%2.14%	60.8%0.88%
New Mexico United									26.6%3.70%	56.8%0.32%	51.3%0.89%	61.7%0.32%	22.8%6.33%	58.4%1.06%	54.3%1.13%	54.0%0.44%
Orange County SC									24.3%1.33%	57.4%0.11%	34.8%0.28%	45.5%0.10%	20.9%2.21%	41.8%0.36%	32.0%0.38%	51.7%0.14%
Phoenix Rising									26.3%2.19%	61.2%0.18%	35.9%0.53%	43.1%0.14%	19.8%3.51%	42.5%0.64%	40.7%0.60%	54.2%0.22%
Sacramento Republic									35.7%7.58%	66.3%0.60%	61.5%1.86%	73.2%0.64%	29.5%12.65%	66.4%2.13%	60.7%2.17%	61.2%0.90%
San Antonio FC									24.8%1.43%	50.5%0.11%	32.5%0.35%	43.5%0.14%	20.2%2.32%	37.7%0.36%	35.7%0.41%	56.1%0.15%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Louisville City FC 33.45% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Detroit City FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

81.62%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Loudoun United

Matchup

28.00%

Win Prob

83.52%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

48.87%

Win Prob

63.53%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

27.45%

Win Prob

72.81%

Charleston Battery 18.56% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Rhode Island FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.44%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. North Carolina FC

Matchup

53.57%

Win Prob

74.84%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

47.23%

Win Prob

36.47%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

27.16%

Win Prob

68.28%

Sacramento Republic 11.73% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Orange County SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.34%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. New Mexico United

Matchup

43.00%

Win Prob

66.61%

→

Conference Finals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

37.39%

Win Prob

46.31%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

31.84%

Win Prob

29.53%

FC Tulsa 10.70% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.39%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Orange County SC

Matchup

28.98%

Win Prob

66.00%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

43.98%

Win Prob

53.69%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

32.03%

Win Prob

27.19%

New Mexico United 4.73% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. San Antonio FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.68%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

34.30%

Win Prob

33.39%

→

Conference Finals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

33.12%

Win Prob

37.62%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

30.47%

Win Prob

22.77%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3.65% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Hartford Athletic

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.29%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. North Carolina FC

Matchup

28.17%

Win Prob

47.93%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

27.84%

Win Prob

30.40%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

24.36%

Win Prob

41.50%

North Carolina FC 3.24% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Loudoun United

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.29%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

42.00%

Win Prob

25.16%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

38.49%

Win Prob

21.99%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

24.32%

Win Prob

37.59%

Hartford Athletic 3.15% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.70%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. North Carolina FC

Matchup

28.30%

Win Prob

49.38%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

28.70%

Win Prob

32.18%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

23.53%

Win Prob

41.13%

Phoenix Rising 2.27% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. El Paso Locomotive

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.70%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

26.16%

Win Prob

34.68%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

26.84%

Win Prob

32.38%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

30.63%

Win Prob

19.76%

El Paso Locomotive 1.80% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Phoenix Rising

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.30%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

25.76%

Win Prob

30.13%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

25.98%

Win Prob

28.07%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

35.22%

Win Prob

18.69%

San Antonio FC 1.42% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. New Mexico United

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.32%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

41.38%

Win Prob

31.66%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

35.45%

Win Prob

29.50%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

32.98%

Win Prob

20.18%

Orange County SC 1.34% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.66%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

64.18%

Win Prob

34.00%

→

Conference Finals

vs. New Mexico United

Matchup

36.68%

Win Prob

40.67%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

34.45%

Win Prob

20.90%

Rhode Island FC 1.33% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.56%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

68.15%

Win Prob

21.41%

→

Conference Finals

vs. North Carolina FC

Matchup

31.72%

Win Prob

44.34%

→

USL Championship

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

26.17%

Win Prob

38.80%

Colorado Springs Switchbacks 0.91% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.61%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Sacramento Republic

Matchup

64.08%

Win Prob

27.93%

→

Conference Finals

vs. El Paso Locomotive

Matchup

23.53%

Win Prob

44.35%

→

USL Championship

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

35.49%

Win Prob

20.14%

Loudoun United 0.88% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. North Carolina FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.71%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

42.71%

Win Prob

16.48%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

34.56%

Win Prob

21.44%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

24.94%

Win Prob

34.98%

Detroit City FC 0.83% chance to win

Conference Quarterfinals

vs. Louisville City FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

18.38%

→

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

62.19%

Win Prob

24.53%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Matchup

26.59%

Win Prob

39.07%

→

USL Championship

vs. FC Tulsa

Matchup

24.82%

Win Prob

35.81%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2025-03-08	Loudoun United	L 1-3	1490.17	1499.38	42.04%	27.63%	30.33%	-13.85	0
2025-03-16	Louisville City FC	T 1-1	1476.32	1569.80	30.37%	27.64%	41.99%	+0.47	1
2025-03-22	@ Detroit City FC	T 2-2	1476.79	1552.88	21.50%	24.91%	53.59%	+1.02	2
2025-03-29	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1477.81	1538.90	22.82%	25.56%	51.63%	-9.79	2
2025-04-13	El Paso Locomotive	W 3-1	1468.02	1465.20	43.73%	27.40%	28.87%	+10.43	5
2025-04-19	@ Hartford Athletic	L 0-1	1478.45	1439.38	34.24%	27.96%	37.79%	-7.29	5
2025-05-03	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 2-2	1471.16	1485.91	27.50%	27.12%	45.38%	+0.55	6
2025-05-14	Rhode Island FC	L 0-1	1471.71	1516.52	36.97%	27.99%	35.05%	-7.71	6
2025-05-18	Detroit City FC	T 1-1	1464.00	1556.66	30.47%	27.65%	41.88%	+0.46	7
2025-05-24	@ Miami FC	W 2-1	1464.46	1387.97	39.58%	27.87%	32.55%	+6.62	10
2025-06-04	Indy Eleven	L 0-1	1471.08	1473.47	43.00%	27.51%	29.49%	-8.63	10
2025-06-14	@ Louisville City FC	L 2-4	1462.45	1621.22	15.67%	20.60%	63.73%	-5.07	10
2025-06-18	Sacramento Republic	W 1-0	1457.38	1543.04	31.36%	27.76%	40.88%	+8.31	13
2025-06-21	Oakland Roots	L 0-1	1465.69	1399.35	52.32%	25.34%	22.35%	-10.04	13
2025-07-02	Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1455.65	1626.87	22.18%	25.26%	52.56%	+1.45	14
2025-07-05	@ Rhode Island FC	T 1-1	1457.10	1510.61	23.51%	25.86%	50.63%	+1.14	15
2025-07-11	@ North Carolina FC	W 3-2	1458.24	1551.49	20.11%	24.11%	55.78%	+9.44	18
2025-07-19	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 0-1	1467.68	1513.70	36.79%	27.99%	35.22%	-7.69	18
2025-08-02	@ Phoenix Rising	T 3-3	1459.99	1485.76	26.29%	26.81%	46.90%	+0.53	19
2025-08-09	Hartford Athletic	L 1-4	1460.52	1495.71	38.35%	27.94%	33.71%	-18.28	19
2025-08-23	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1442.24	1541.61	29.65%	27.53%	42.82%	+0.53	20
2025-08-30	@ Orange County SC	T 4-4	1442.77	1513.71	21.94%	25.14%	52.92%	+0.72	21
2025-09-06	@ FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1443.49	1534.44	20.29%	24.22%	55.49%	+1.52	22
2025-09-17	Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 1-4	1445.01	1460.67	41.13%	27.73%	31.14%	-19.27	22
2025-09-21	@ Indy Eleven	L 1-2	1425.74	1465.65	24.83%	26.35%	48.81%	-5.29	22
2025-09-27	@ San Antonio FC	T 0-0	1420.45	1499.98	21.21%	24.76%	54.03%	+1.57	23
2025-10-01	North Carolina FC	T 1-1	1422.02	1541.63	27.30%	27.07%	45.63%	+0.76	24
2025-10-04	@ Loudoun United	W 1-0	1422.78	1480.31	23.14%	25.70%	51.16%	+9.86	27
2025-10-19	Miami FC	L 2-3	1432.64	1367.27	52.19%	25.38%	22.43%	-8.96	27
2025-10-25	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1423.68	1650.99	12.10%	16.63%	71.28%	-2.38	27
2025-03-08	Louisville City FC	L 1-2	1560.56	1561.64	43.18%	27.48%	29.34%	-8.15	0
2025-03-15	Rhode Island FC	W 2-0	1552.41	1535.71	45.65%	27.07%	27.28%	+11.49	3
2025-03-29	@ North Carolina FC	L 1-2	1563.90	1530.41	33.48%	27.93%	38.59%	-6.76	3
2025-04-05	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-1	1557.14	1504.63	50.50%	25.89%	23.61%	+5.06	6
2025-04-12	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1562.20	1548.69	45.21%	27.15%	27.64%	+5.81	9
2025-04-19	@ Indy Eleven	W 3-1	1568.01	1495.03	39.08%	27.90%	33.02%	+11.59	12
2025-05-03	Hartford Athletic	W 4-2	1579.60	1446.68	60.67%	22.05%	17.28%	+5.67	15
2025-05-10	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 3-1	1585.27	1485.36	42.90%	27.52%	29.58%	+10.65	18
2025-05-17	San Antonio FC	W 4-0	1595.92	1491.49	57.18%	23.56%	19.26%	+15.66	21
2025-05-24	@ Detroit City FC	W 3-1	1611.58	1556.20	36.56%	27.99%	35.45%	+12.22	24
2025-06-07	@ Loudoun United	T 1-1	1623.80	1545.81	39.79%	27.85%	32.35%	-0.30	25
2025-06-14	@ Hartford Athletic	W 2-1	1623.50	1437.11	54.52%	24.58%	20.90%	+4.49	28
2025-06-18	@ Miami FC	L 0-1	1627.99	1387.99	61.16%	21.83%	17.02%	-11.30	28
2025-06-21	Phoenix Rising	W 4-1	1616.69	1513.88	56.98%	23.64%	19.38%	+10.18	31
2025-07-02	@ Birmingham Legion	T 0-0	1626.87	1455.65	52.56%	25.26%	22.18%	-1.45	32
2025-07-06	North Carolina FC	W 1-0	1625.42	1556.54	52.65%	25.23%	22.12%	+5.04	35
2025-07-12	@ New Mexico United	W 2-1	1630.46	1533.24	42.52%	27.57%	29.91%	+6.20	38
2025-07-19	Miami FC	W 3-0	1636.66	1392.63	72.99%	15.68%	11.34%	+6.39	41
2025-08-09	@ Louisville City FC	L 1-4	1643.05	1649.27	28.47%	27.33%	44.20%	-14.59	41
2025-08-16	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1628.46	1548.15	40.12%	27.83%	32.05%	+6.54	44
2025-08-24	Loudoun United	W 4-1	1635.00	1492.15	61.86%	21.50%	16.64%	+8.60	47
2025-08-30	@ Rhode Island FC	L 0-1	1643.60	1479.96	51.57%	25.57%	22.86%	-9.92	47
2025-09-06	Indy Eleven	W 2-1	1633.68	1475.10	63.71%	20.61%	15.69%	+3.28	50
2025-09-13	Oakland Roots	T 3-3	1636.96	1423.56	69.82%	17.43%	12.76%	-1.56	51
2025-09-20	@ El Paso Locomotive	W 2-0	1635.40	1482.03	50.21%	25.98%	23.82%	+10.20	54
2025-09-27	@ Orange County SC	T 2-2	1645.60	1487.89	50.78%	25.81%	23.41%	-0.87	55
2025-10-13	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 5-0	1644.73	1497.48	62.38%	21.25%	16.37%	+16.11	58
2025-10-18	Detroit City FC	T 1-1	1660.84	1495.67	64.47%	20.23%	15.30%	-2.16	59
2025-10-22	@ Sacramento Republic	L 0-1	1658.68	1601.32	36.84%	27.99%	35.17%	-7.69	59
2025-10-25	Birmingham Legion	W 2-1	1650.99	1423.68	71.28%	16.63%	12.10%	+2.39	62
2025-03-08	@ El Paso Locomotive	T 2-2	1547.20	1455.06	41.80%	27.66%	30.54%	-0.34	1
2025-03-15	Detroit City FC	L 1-2	1546.86	1544.66	43.64%	27.41%	28.95%	-8.22	1
2025-03-22	@ Sacramento Republic	T 2-2	1538.64	1538.06	29.28%	27.47%	43.25%	+0.42	2
2025-03-29	@ Indy Eleven	W 3-2	1539.06	1502.16	33.95%	27.95%	38.10%	+7.05	5
2025-04-12	@ Monterey Bay FC	L 1-2	1546.11	1490.25	36.63%	27.99%	35.38%	-7.22	5
2025-04-19	El Paso Locomotive	T 1-1	1538.89	1454.76	54.62%	24.55%	20.84%	-1.45	6
2025-04-23	@ San Antonio FC	L 2-3	1537.44	1493.80	34.88%	27.98%	37.13%	-6.61	6
2025-05-03	Phoenix Rising	T 1-1	1530.83	1473.69	51.11%	25.71%	23.18%	-1.18	7
2025-05-10	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	T 0-0	1529.65	1501.81	32.72%	27.88%	39.40%	+0.29	8
2025-05-17	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1529.94	1521.41	44.52%	27.27%	28.21%	+6.27	11
2025-05-24	@ Orange County SC	L 1-3	1536.21	1448.14	41.23%	27.72%	31.05%	-13.64	11
2025-06-07	@ New Mexico United	T 1-1	1522.57	1540.25	27.17%	27.04%	45.79%	+0.77	12
2025-06-14	Oakland Roots	W 1-0	1523.34	1403.46	59.09%	22.75%	18.16%	+4.10	15
2025-06-20	@ Lexington SC	L 1-2	1527.44	1456.32	38.81%	27.92%	33.27%	-7.53	15
2025-07-04	Louisville City FC	L 0-1	1519.91	1634.09	27.91%	27.21%	44.88%	-6.21	15
2025-07-19	@ Birmingham Legion	W 1-0	1513.70	1467.68	35.22%	27.99%	36.79%	+7.68	18
2025-08-01	Lexington SC	W 3-1	1521.38	1474.86	49.70%	26.12%	24.18%	+8.95	21
2025-08-09	@ Oakland Roots	W 2-1	1530.33	1439.58	41.61%	27.68%	30.71%	+6.33	24
2025-08-16	Orange County SC	L 0-1	1536.66	1510.46	46.96%	26.80%	26.25%	-9.22	24
2025-08-23	@ Phoenix Rising	L 1-4	1527.44	1472.91	36.44%	27.99%	35.57%	-17.62	24
2025-08-30	FC Tulsa	W 2-0	1509.82	1548.16	37.89%	27.96%	34.14%	+13.72	27
2025-09-06	Monterey Bay FC	W 2-1	1523.54	1422.37	56.77%	23.72%	19.50%	+4.18	30
2025-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 3-3	1527.72	1460.56	38.25%	27.95%	33.81%	-0.11	31
2025-09-20	Sacramento Republic	L 0-2	1527.61	1602.34	32.78%	27.89%	39.33%	-13.31	31
2025-09-24	New Mexico United	L 1-2	1514.30	1502.48	44.98%	27.19%	27.83%	-8.41	31
2025-09-27	Hartford Athletic	L 0-2	1505.89	1538.78	38.68%	27.93%	33.40%	-15.03	31
2025-10-04	San Antonio FC	W 1-0	1490.86	1498.41	42.27%	27.60%	30.12%	+6.62	34
2025-10-13	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-5	1497.48	1644.73	16.37%	21.25%	62.38%	-16.11	34
2025-10-18	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 1-0	1481.37	1387.71	55.83%	24.09%	20.08%	+4.57	37
2025-10-25	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-3	1485.94	1558.13	21.84%	25.09%	53.08%	-13.63	37
2025-03-08	@ Miami FC	W 2-0	1534.19	1388.04	49.24%	26.24%	24.52%	+10.47	3
2025-03-15	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 2-1	1544.66	1546.86	28.95%	27.41%	43.64%	+8.22	6
2025-03-22	Birmingham Legion	T 2-2	1552.88	1476.79	53.59%	24.91%	21.50%	-1.02	7
2025-03-29	@ Louisville City FC	L 0-2	1551.86	1579.63	26.08%	26.75%	47.17%	-11.06	7
2025-04-05	Monterey Bay FC	T 0-0	1540.80	1488.99	50.40%	25.92%	23.67%	-1.26	8
2025-04-12	@ Phoenix Rising	W 3-2	1539.54	1480.33	37.11%	27.98%	34.91%	+6.61	11
2025-04-19	Rhode Island FC	W 2-0	1546.15	1529.75	45.61%	27.07%	27.32%	+11.51	14
2025-05-03	@ Indy Eleven	T 2-2	1557.66	1483.44	39.26%	27.89%	32.85%	-0.19	15
2025-05-10	@ Hartford Athletic	T 0-0	1557.47	1441.00	45.20%	27.15%	27.65%	-0.81	16
2025-05-18	@ Birmingham Legion	T 1-1	1556.66	1464.00	41.88%	27.65%	30.47%	-0.46	17
2025-05-24	Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1556.20	1611.58	35.45%	27.99%	36.56%	-12.21	17
2025-06-07	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1543.99	1524.44	31.63%	27.79%	40.58%	-12.95	17
2025-06-14	@ Loudoun United	L 2-3	1531.04	1546.10	27.46%	27.11%	45.43%	-5.49	17
2025-06-21	Miami FC	W 2-0	1525.55	1399.29	59.87%	22.41%	17.72%	+7.54	20
2025-07-05	@ Oakland Roots	L 0-2	1533.09	1409.39	46.20%	26.96%	26.85%	-17.18	20
2025-07-12	Hartford Athletic	L 1-2	1515.91	1457.30	51.30%	25.65%	23.04%	-9.31	20
2025-07-18	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1506.60	1540.31	38.56%	27.93%	33.51%	-0.23	21
2025-08-06	@ Rhode Island FC	L 0-1	1506.37	1490.63	31.15%	27.74%	41.12%	-6.78	21
2025-08-09	Indy Eleven	W 1-0	1499.59	1469.75	47.45%	26.68%	25.86%	+5.82	24
2025-08-15	@ North Carolina FC	T 1-1	1505.41	1544.15	24.95%	26.39%	48.66%	+0.99	25
2025-08-23	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-0	1506.40	1475.33	47.62%	26.65%	25.74%	+10.93	28
2025-08-30	San Antonio FC	T 1-1	1517.33	1478.33	48.69%	26.38%	24.92%	-0.99	29
2025-09-06	Orange County SC	W 4-1	1516.34	1512.99	43.80%	27.39%	28.81%	+14.73	32
2025-09-10	@ New Mexico United	L 0-4	1531.07	1484.66	35.27%	27.99%	36.74%	-26.66	32
2025-09-20	Lexington SC	L 0-1	1504.41	1490.86	45.22%	27.15%	27.64%	-8.96	32
2025-09-27	Louisville City FC	L 0-1	1495.45	1692.10	20.08%	24.09%	55.82%	-4.58	32
2025-10-04	North Carolina FC	W 2-0	1490.87	1540.87	36.22%	28.00%	35.78%	+14.20	35
2025-10-11	Loudoun United	L 0-1	1505.07	1470.45	48.10%	26.53%	25.37%	-9.40	35
2025-10-18	@ Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1495.67	1660.84	15.30%	20.23%	64.47%	+2.16	36
2025-10-25	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 1-1	1497.83	1478.00	31.67%	27.79%	40.54%	+0.36	37
2025-03-08	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 2-2	1455.06	1547.20	30.54%	27.66%	41.80%	+0.33	1
2025-03-15	Phoenix Rising	T 4-4	1455.39	1481.90	39.59%	27.87%	32.54%	-0.15	2
2025-03-22	@ New Mexico United	L 0-1	1455.24	1508.03	23.58%	25.88%	50.53%	-5.36	2
2025-03-29	@ Hartford Athletic	W 2-1	1449.88	1456.97	28.37%	27.31%	44.32%	+8.33	5
2025-04-05	Lexington SC	W 2-1	1458.21	1502.97	36.97%	27.99%	35.04%	+6.99	8
2025-04-13	@ Birmingham Legion	L 1-3	1465.20	1468.02	28.87%	27.40%	43.73%	-10.44	8
2025-04-19	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 1-1	1454.76	1538.89	20.84%	24.55%	54.62%	+1.46	9
2025-05-03	New Mexico United	W 3-0	1456.22	1531.55	32.70%	27.88%	39.42%	+22.12	12
2025-05-10	@ FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1478.34	1483.54	28.59%	27.35%	44.06%	+0.64	13
2025-05-16	Indy Eleven	W 3-1	1478.98	1484.70	42.53%	27.57%	29.90%	+10.73	16
2025-05-24	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	W 2-1	1489.71	1475.54	30.95%	27.71%	41.34%	+7.89	19
2025-06-07	@ Oakland Roots	T 0-0	1497.60	1402.92	42.16%	27.62%	30.22%	-0.54	20
2025-06-14	Orange County SC	L 0-3	1497.06	1452.70	49.41%	26.20%	24.39%	-26.28	20
2025-06-21	@ Monterey Bay FC	W 2-1	1470.78	1459.94	30.53%	27.66%	41.81%	+7.96	23
2025-07-04	San Antonio FC	L 1-2	1478.74	1485.24	42.42%	27.59%	29.99%	-8.05	23
2025-07-12	@ Sacramento Republic	L 0-3	1470.69	1563.66	20.13%	24.13%	55.74%	-12.56	23
2025-08-02	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 6-0	1458.13	1426.90	47.64%	26.64%	25.72%	+30.34	26
2025-08-09	@ Miami FC	T 0-0	1488.47	1379.87	44.11%	27.34%	28.55%	-0.71	27
2025-08-16	Monterey Bay FC	T 2-2	1487.76	1427.93	51.47%	25.61%	22.93%	-0.90	28
2025-08-23	Sacramento Republic	W 1-0	1486.86	1588.14	29.42%	27.50%	43.09%	+8.64	31
2025-08-30	@ Phoenix Rising	T 3-3	1495.50	1490.52	29.81%	27.56%	42.64%	+0.32	32
2025-09-06	Loudoun United	L 1-2	1495.82	1490.48	44.08%	27.35%	28.58%	-8.28	32
2025-09-12	@ North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1487.54	1533.08	24.28%	26.15%	49.57%	-5.51	32
2025-09-20	Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1482.03	1635.40	23.82%	25.98%	50.21%	-10.19	32
2025-09-26	Rhode Island FC	T 2-2	1471.84	1497.09	39.77%	27.86%	32.38%	-0.22	33
2025-10-01	Oakland Roots	W 3-1	1471.62	1426.60	49.50%	26.17%	24.33%	+9.00	36
2025-10-04	@ Orange County SC	T 0-0	1480.62	1484.82	28.71%	27.37%	43.92%	+0.70	37
2025-10-11	@ Lexington SC	W 2-1	1481.32	1478.53	29.54%	27.52%	42.94%	+8.12	40
2025-10-18	FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1489.44	1558.32	33.57%	27.93%	38.49%	+0.19	41
2025-10-25	@ San Antonio FC	L 2-5	1489.63	1469.49	31.71%	27.80%	40.49%	-13.76	41
2025-03-08	@ Phoenix Rising	W 1-0	1460.57	1491.22	25.78%	26.66%	47.56%	+9.32	3
2025-03-15	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 1-0	1469.89	1506.35	38.17%	27.95%	33.89%	+7.24	6
2025-03-22	North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1477.13	1522.72	36.85%	27.99%	35.16%	-7.69	6
2025-03-28	Sacramento Republic	W 1-0	1469.44	1537.64	33.66%	27.94%	38.40%	+7.92	9
2025-04-12	Oakland Roots	L 1-2	1477.36	1398.54	53.94%	24.79%	21.27%	-9.68	9
2025-04-19	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	W 4-1	1467.68	1516.59	23.95%	26.03%	50.02%	+22.37	12
2025-05-03	@ Orange County SC	L 1-2	1490.05	1468.76	31.86%	27.81%	40.33%	-6.51	12
2025-05-10	El Paso Locomotive	T 1-1	1483.54	1478.34	44.06%	27.35%	28.59%	-0.63	13
2025-05-18	@ Lexington SC	W 2-0	1482.91	1470.65	30.71%	27.68%	41.61%	+15.87	16
2025-05-28	@ San Antonio FC	T 1-1	1498.78	1475.82	32.08%	27.83%	40.09%	+0.32	17
2025-06-07	@ Sacramento Republic	W 1-0	1499.10	1554.12	23.37%	25.80%	50.83%	+9.81	20
2025-06-14	Phoenix Rising	T 1-1	1508.91	1513.35	42.71%	27.55%	29.74%	-0.53	21
2025-07-05	@ Miami FC	T 2-2	1508.38	1391.75	45.22%	27.15%	27.63%	-0.54	22
2025-07-12	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 4-3	1507.84	1452.73	50.84%	25.79%	23.36%	+4.64	25
2025-07-16	Monterey Bay FC	W 2-1	1512.48	1442.28	52.82%	25.17%	22.01%	+4.73	28
2025-07-19	@ Louisville City FC	T 1-1	1517.21	1640.30	17.93%	22.58%	59.48%	+1.81	29
2025-08-01	Loudoun United	W 3-2	1519.02	1491.28	47.17%	26.75%	26.08%	+5.25	32
2025-08-06	@ Monterey Bay FC	W 3-2	1524.27	1437.55	41.03%	27.74%	31.22%	+6.08	35
2025-08-09	New Mexico United	W 5-2	1530.35	1498.69	47.70%	26.63%	25.67%	+11.57	38
2025-08-16	@ Hartford Athletic	T 1-1	1541.92	1514.00	32.73%	27.88%	39.39%	+0.27	39
2025-08-23	Orange County SC	W 1-0	1542.19	1519.69	46.45%	26.90%	26.65%	+5.97	42
2025-08-30	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 0-2	1548.16	1509.82	34.14%	27.96%	37.89%	-13.72	42
2025-09-06	Birmingham Legion	T 1-1	1534.44	1443.49	55.49%	24.22%	20.29%	-1.51	43
2025-09-13	@ New Mexico United	W 1-0	1532.93	1511.32	31.90%	27.81%	40.29%	+8.21	46
2025-09-20	@ Oakland Roots	T 1-1	1541.14	1425.11	45.14%	27.16%	27.70%	-0.72	47
2025-09-27	@ Indy Eleven	L 1-2	1540.42	1470.95	38.58%	27.93%	33.49%	-7.50	47
2025-10-04	Lexington SC	W 3-0	1532.92	1493.96	48.69%	26.39%	24.93%	+15.44	50
2025-10-11	San Antonio FC	W 2-0	1548.36	1491.80	51.03%	25.74%	23.23%	+9.96	53
2025-10-18	@ El Paso Locomotive	T 1-1	1558.32	1489.44	38.49%	27.93%	33.57%	-0.19	54
2025-10-25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 3-0	1558.13	1485.94	53.08%	25.09%	21.84%	+13.63	57
2025-03-08	@ Lexington SC	L 0-2	1473.05	1500.00	26.17%	26.77%	47.06%	-11.09	0
2025-03-22	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1461.96	1533.91	21.85%	25.10%	53.05%	-4.99	0
2025-03-29	El Paso Locomotive	L 1-2	1456.97	1449.88	44.32%	27.31%	28.37%	-8.32	0
2025-04-05	@ Loudoun United	L 0-2	1448.65	1524.14	21.55%	24.94%	53.51%	-9.27	0
2025-04-19	Birmingham Legion	W 1-0	1439.38	1478.45	37.79%	27.96%	34.24%	+7.30	3
2025-05-03	@ Charleston Battery	L 2-4	1446.68	1579.60	17.28%	22.05%	60.67%	-5.68	3
2025-05-10	Detroit City FC	T 0-0	1441.00	1557.47	27.65%	27.15%	45.20%	+0.81	4
2025-05-17	Louisville City FC	T 1-1	1441.81	1603.47	23.04%	25.65%	51.31%	+1.19	5
2025-05-28	@ Indy Eleven	T 4-4	1443.00	1473.96	25.75%	26.65%	47.60%	+0.50	6
2025-06-06	North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1443.50	1549.29	28.88%	27.40%	43.72%	-6.39	6
2025-06-14	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1437.11	1623.50	20.90%	24.58%	54.52%	-4.50	6
2025-06-20	Loudoun United	W 3-0	1432.61	1551.59	27.37%	27.09%	45.55%	+24.69	9
2025-07-12	@ Detroit City FC	W 2-1	1457.30	1515.91	23.04%	25.65%	51.30%	+9.31	12
2025-07-16	Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 0-1	1466.61	1457.22	44.64%	27.25%	28.11%	-8.87	12
2025-07-19	@ Rhode Island FC	T 0-0	1457.74	1502.50	24.35%	26.18%	49.47%	+1.18	13
2025-07-30	New Mexico United	W 4-0	1458.92	1527.04	33.67%	27.94%	38.39%	+28.35	16
2025-08-06	Miami FC	W 2-0	1487.27	1388.31	56.50%	23.83%	19.67%	+8.44	19
2025-08-09	@ Birmingham Legion	W 4-1	1495.71	1460.52	33.71%	27.94%	38.35%	+18.29	22
2025-08-16	FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1514.00	1541.92	39.39%	27.88%	32.73%	-0.27	23
2025-08-23	Rhode Island FC	W 3-0	1513.73	1496.63	45.71%	27.05%	27.24%	+16.68	26
2025-08-30	@ North Carolina FC	W 3-2	1530.41	1548.41	27.14%	27.03%	45.83%	+8.10	29
2025-09-03	Indy Eleven	L 0-2	1538.51	1455.58	54.46%	24.60%	20.93%	-19.52	29
2025-09-06	@ Miami FC	W 1-0	1518.99	1364.76	50.32%	25.94%	23.73%	+5.39	32
2025-09-13	@ Monterey Bay FC	W 4-0	1524.38	1418.19	43.77%	27.39%	28.83%	+22.83	35
2025-09-20	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1547.21	1534.81	45.06%	27.18%	27.76%	-8.43	35
2025-09-27	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 2-0	1538.78	1505.89	33.40%	27.93%	38.68%	+15.03	38
2025-10-07	@ Oakland Roots	W 3-1	1553.81	1417.60	47.90%	26.58%	25.52%	+9.40	41
2025-10-11	Sacramento Republic	W 3-2	1563.21	1608.62	36.88%	27.99%	35.13%	+6.64	44
2025-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 2-3	1569.85	1470.31	42.84%	27.53%	29.63%	-7.69	44
2025-10-25	@ Louisville City FC	L 0-1	1562.16	1701.26	16.88%	21.71%	61.41%	-3.79	44
2025-03-15	@ Miami FC	W 3-1	1491.31	1377.57	44.82%	27.22%	27.96%	+10.16	3
2025-03-22	@ Lexington SC	T 1-1	1501.47	1511.51	28.03%	27.24%	44.73%	+0.69	4
2025-03-29	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 2-3	1502.16	1539.06	38.10%	27.95%	33.95%	-7.05	4
2025-04-05	North Carolina FC	T 2-2	1495.11	1537.17	37.36%	27.98%	34.66%	-0.08	5
2025-04-19	Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1495.03	1568.01	33.02%	27.90%	39.08%	-11.59	5
2025-05-03	Detroit City FC	T 2-2	1483.44	1557.66	32.85%	27.89%	39.26%	+0.19	6
2025-05-10	@ Sacramento Republic	T 1-1	1483.63	1529.21	24.27%	26.15%	49.57%	+1.07	7
2025-05-16	@ El Paso Locomotive	L 1-3	1484.70	1478.98	29.90%	27.57%	42.53%	-10.74	7
2025-05-28	Hartford Athletic	T 4-4	1473.96	1443.00	47.60%	26.65%	25.75%	-0.49	8
2025-06-04	@ Birmingham Legion	W 1-0	1473.47	1471.08	29.49%	27.51%	43.00%	+8.63	11
2025-06-14	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1482.10	1537.40	35.46%	27.99%	36.55%	+7.64	14
2025-06-21	Las Vegas Lights FC	L 0-1	1489.74	1456.24	47.95%	26.57%	25.48%	-9.38	14
2025-06-25	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 1-3	1480.36	1451.48	32.86%	27.89%	39.25%	-11.54	14
2025-07-05	Monterey Bay FC	W 3-0	1468.82	1451.98	45.67%	27.06%	27.27%	+16.69	17
2025-07-12	Rhode Island FC	W 1-0	1485.51	1509.47	39.95%	27.84%	32.21%	+6.96	20
2025-07-18	@ North Carolina FC	L 2-4	1492.47	1542.06	23.89%	26.00%	50.11%	-7.92	20
2025-08-02	Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 1-3	1484.55	1466.09	45.89%	27.02%	27.09%	-14.80	20
2025-08-09	@ Detroit City FC	L 0-1	1469.75	1499.59	25.86%	26.68%	47.45%	-5.83	20
2025-08-16	@ Loudoun United	L 2-3	1463.92	1486.81	26.60%	26.89%	46.50%	-5.33	20
2025-08-23	Miami FC	W 3-2	1458.59	1375.97	54.42%	24.62%	20.96%	+4.27	23
2025-08-30	Louisville City FC	L 1-3	1462.86	1665.90	19.59%	23.78%	56.63%	-7.28	23
2025-09-03	@ Hartford Athletic	W 2-0	1455.58	1538.51	20.93%	24.60%	54.46%	+19.52	26
2025-09-06	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1475.10	1633.68	15.69%	20.61%	63.71%	-3.28	26
2025-09-13	@ Rhode Island FC	L 0-1	1471.82	1485.06	27.67%	27.16%	45.17%	-6.17	26
2025-09-21	Birmingham Legion	W 2-1	1465.65	1425.74	48.81%	26.35%	24.83%	+5.30	29
2025-09-27	FC Tulsa	W 2-1	1470.95	1540.42	33.49%	27.93%	38.58%	+7.50	32
2025-10-04	@ Louisville City FC	L 0-2	1478.45	1696.67	12.52%	17.15%	70.33%	-4.99	32
2025-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1473.46	1529.75	23.26%	25.75%	51.00%	-4.98	32
2025-10-18	Loudoun United	W 2-1	1468.48	1479.85	41.74%	27.67%	30.60%	+6.31	35
2025-10-25	@ Orange County SC	L 1-2	1474.79	1493.03	27.11%	27.02%	45.86%	-5.72	35
2025-03-08	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 1-0	1512.54	1512.81	43.30%	27.47%	29.24%	+6.45	3
2025-03-15	New Mexico United	L 2-3	1518.99	1499.91	45.98%	27.00%	27.02%	-8.12	3
2025-03-29	@ Oakland Roots	T 0-0	1510.87	1416.14	42.17%	27.62%	30.22%	-0.54	4
2025-04-05	Orange County SC	W 1-0	1510.33	1482.72	47.15%	26.75%	26.10%	+5.87	7
2025-04-12	@ Lexington SC	T 0-0	1516.20	1495.98	31.72%	27.80%	40.48%	+0.39	8
2025-04-19	FC Tulsa	L 1-4	1516.59	1467.68	50.02%	26.03%	23.95%	-22.38	8
2025-05-03	Loudoun United	W 1-0	1494.21	1547.02	35.82%	28.00%	36.19%	+7.60	11
2025-05-10	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 0-0	1501.81	1529.65	39.40%	27.88%	32.72%	-0.30	12
2025-05-17	@ Sacramento Republic	L 0-5	1501.51	1528.15	26.20%	26.78%	47.02%	-25.97	12
2025-05-24	El Paso Locomotive	L 1-2	1475.54	1489.71	41.34%	27.71%	30.95%	-7.90	12
2025-05-28	Phoenix Rising	L 0-1	1467.64	1496.20	39.29%	27.89%	32.82%	-8.06	12
2025-06-07	@ San Antonio FC	L 0-3	1459.58	1475.50	27.37%	27.09%	45.54%	-16.74	12
2025-06-14	Monterey Bay FC	W 2-0	1442.84	1473.34	39.02%	27.91%	33.08%	+13.40	15
2025-06-21	@ Indy Eleven	W 1-0	1456.24	1489.74	25.48%	26.57%	47.95%	+9.38	18
2025-07-04	Sacramento Republic	L 0-2	1465.62	1550.77	31.42%	27.77%	40.81%	-12.89	18
2025-07-12	@ FC Tulsa	L 3-4	1452.73	1507.84	23.36%	25.79%	50.84%	-4.63	18
2025-07-19	@ Orange County SC	L 0-4	1448.10	1473.03	26.38%	26.83%	46.78%	-21.20	18
2025-08-02	@ El Paso Locomotive	L 0-6	1426.90	1458.13	25.72%	26.64%	47.64%	-30.35	18
2025-08-09	San Antonio FC	T 1-1	1396.55	1487.60	30.67%	27.68%	41.65%	+0.44	19
2025-08-16	@ New Mexico United	T 2-2	1396.99	1487.12	20.35%	24.26%	55.38%	+1.13	20
2025-08-23	North Carolina FC	L 1-2	1398.12	1543.15	24.62%	26.28%	49.09%	-5.26	20
2025-08-30	Lexington SC	W 1-0	1392.86	1492.74	29.59%	27.52%	42.89%	+8.61	23
2025-09-05	@ Phoenix Rising	T 0-0	1401.47	1490.20	20.47%	24.33%	55.20%	+1.67	24
2025-09-13	Miami FC	T 0-0	1403.14	1359.37	49.33%	26.22%	24.45%	-1.17	25
2025-09-20	@ Louisville City FC	L 1-3	1401.97	1689.02	9.56%	13.34%	77.10%	-3.08	25
2025-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1398.89	1543.24	16.55%	21.41%	62.04%	-3.70	25
2025-10-05	@ Rhode Island FC	L 1-3	1395.19	1497.31	19.43%	23.67%	56.89%	-7.21	25
2025-10-11	Oakland Roots	T 2-2	1387.98	1408.20	40.48%	27.80%	31.72%	-0.27	26
2025-10-18	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 0-1	1387.71	1481.37	20.08%	24.09%	55.83%	-4.57	26
2025-10-25	@ Monterey Bay FC	T 1-1	1383.14	1373.98	30.32%	27.63%	42.05%	+0.47	27
2025-03-08	Hartford Athletic	W 2-0	1500.00	1473.05	47.06%	26.77%	26.17%	+11.09	3
2025-03-15	@ Orange County SC	T 2-2	1511.09	1510.21	29.31%	27.48%	43.21%	+0.42	4
2025-03-22	Indy Eleven	T 1-1	1511.51	1501.47	44.73%	27.24%	28.03%	-0.68	5
2025-03-29	San Antonio FC	L 2-3	1510.83	1505.78	44.04%	27.35%	28.61%	-7.86	5
2025-04-05	@ El Paso Locomotive	L 1-2	1502.97	1458.21	35.04%	27.99%	36.97%	-6.99	5
2025-04-12	Las Vegas Lights FC	T 0-0	1495.98	1516.20	40.48%	27.80%	31.72%	-0.39	6
2025-04-19	Monterey Bay FC	T 0-0	1495.59	1497.47	43.07%	27.50%	29.43%	-0.62	7
2025-05-01	@ Louisville City FC	L 0-2	1494.97	1596.76	19.46%	23.69%	56.85%	-8.35	7
2025-05-10	@ Loudoun United	L 1-5	1486.62	1539.43	23.58%	25.88%	50.54%	-15.97	7
2025-05-18	FC Tulsa	L 0-2	1470.65	1482.91	41.61%	27.68%	30.71%	-15.87	7
2025-05-24	Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 1-1	1454.78	1453.89	43.46%	27.44%	29.10%	-0.58	8
2025-06-07	@ Monterey Bay FC	L 1-2	1454.20	1467.52	27.66%	27.15%	45.19%	-5.81	8
2025-06-14	New Mexico United	W 2-1	1448.39	1539.49	30.67%	27.68%	41.65%	+7.93	11
2025-06-20	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 2-1	1456.32	1527.44	33.27%	27.92%	38.81%	+7.54	14
2025-07-04	@ Phoenix Rising	W 1-0	1463.86	1503.70	24.84%	26.36%	48.80%	+9.50	17
2025-07-12	@ Miami FC	T 1-1	1473.36	1392.29	40.23%	27.82%	31.95%	-0.33	18
2025-07-19	@ Sacramento Republic	T 0-0	1473.03	1576.22	19.35%	23.62%	57.03%	+1.83	19
2025-08-01	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 1-3	1474.86	1521.38	24.18%	26.12%	49.70%	-8.96	19
2025-08-09	Phoenix Rising	W 2-0	1465.90	1485.23	40.61%	27.79%	31.61%	+12.95	22
2025-08-16	@ San Antonio FC	W 1-0	1478.85	1487.16	28.23%	27.28%	44.49%	+8.85	25
2025-08-23	Oakland Roots	W 2-1	1487.70	1434.55	50.58%	25.87%	23.55%	+5.04	28
2025-08-30	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	L 0-1	1492.74	1392.86	42.89%	27.52%	29.59%	-8.61	28
2025-09-05	North Carolina FC	W 2-1	1484.13	1540.31	35.34%	27.99%	36.67%	+7.23	31
2025-09-12	Orange County SC	T 1-1	1491.36	1498.26	42.36%	27.59%	30.04%	-0.50	32
2025-09-20	@ Detroit City FC	W 1-0	1490.86	1504.41	27.64%	27.15%	45.22%	+8.96	35
2025-09-28	@ New Mexico United	L 1-2	1499.82	1510.90	27.92%	27.21%	44.87%	-5.86	35
2025-10-04	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-3	1493.96	1532.92	24.93%	26.39%	48.69%	-15.43	35
2025-10-11	El Paso Locomotive	L 1-2	1478.53	1481.32	42.94%	27.52%	29.54%	-8.13	35
2025-10-17	Sacramento Republic	T 2-2	1470.40	1601.98	26.00%	26.73%	47.27%	+0.66	36
2025-10-25	@ Oakland Roots	L 0-3	1471.06	1409.55	37.44%	27.98%	34.59%	-21.30	36
2025-03-08	@ Birmingham Legion	W 3-1	1499.38	1490.17	30.33%	27.63%	42.04%	+13.84	3
2025-03-15	@ North Carolina FC	W 2-1	1513.22	1531.26	27.13%	27.03%	45.84%	+8.54	6
2025-03-22	@ Louisville City FC	L 0-2	1521.76	1569.33	24.08%	26.08%	49.84%	-10.30	6
2025-03-29	Rhode Island FC	W 2-0	1511.46	1524.29	41.53%	27.69%	30.78%	+12.68	9
2025-04-05	Hartford Athletic	W 2-0	1524.14	1448.65	53.51%	24.94%	21.55%	+9.27	12
2025-04-12	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-1	1533.41	1499.57	33.53%	27.93%	38.54%	+7.49	15
2025-04-19	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1540.90	1542.88	43.06%	27.50%	29.44%	+6.12	18
2025-05-03	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	L 0-1	1547.02	1494.21	36.19%	28.00%	35.82%	-7.59	18
2025-05-10	Lexington SC	W 5-1	1539.43	1486.62	50.54%	25.88%	23.58%	+15.98	21
2025-05-17	@ Miami FC	L 1-2	1555.41	1378.37	53.31%	25.01%	21.68%	-9.60	21
2025-06-07	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1545.81	1623.80	32.35%	27.85%	39.79%	+0.29	22
2025-06-14	Detroit City FC	W 3-2	1546.10	1531.04	45.43%	27.11%	27.46%	+5.49	25
2025-06-20	@ Hartford Athletic	L 0-3	1551.59	1432.61	45.55%	27.09%	27.37%	-24.69	25
2025-06-25	Louisville City FC	L 1-4	1526.90	1618.63	30.59%	27.67%	41.74%	-15.45	25
2025-07-03	Orange County SC	T 0-0	1511.45	1478.99	47.81%	26.60%	25.59%	-1.03	26
2025-07-13	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 2-2	1510.42	1540.98	25.79%	26.66%	47.55%	+0.67	27
2025-07-19	Oakland Roots	L 0-2	1511.09	1419.77	55.53%	24.21%	20.26%	-19.81	27
2025-08-01	@ FC Tulsa	L 2-3	1491.28	1519.02	26.08%	26.75%	47.17%	-5.25	27
2025-08-09	@ Rhode Island FC	T 0-0	1486.03	1497.41	27.88%	27.20%	44.92%	+0.78	28
2025-08-16	Indy Eleven	W 3-2	1486.81	1463.92	46.50%	26.89%	26.60%	+5.34	31
2025-08-24	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-4	1492.15	1635.00	16.64%	21.50%	61.86%	-8.60	31
2025-08-30	Miami FC	W 3-1	1483.55	1371.70	58.10%	23.18%	18.72%	+6.93	34
2025-09-06	@ El Paso Locomotive	W 2-1	1490.48	1495.82	28.58%	27.35%	44.08%	+8.29	37
2025-09-13	San Antonio FC	L 2-5	1498.77	1470.58	47.23%	26.74%	26.04%	-18.53	37
2025-09-20	@ Phoenix Rising	T 2-2	1480.24	1489.83	28.09%	27.25%	44.67%	+0.50	38
2025-09-28	Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 2-2	1480.74	1479.99	43.44%	27.44%	29.12%	-0.43	39
2025-10-04	Birmingham Legion	L 0-1	1480.31	1422.78	51.16%	25.70%	23.14%	-9.86	39
2025-10-11	@ Detroit City FC	W 1-0	1470.45	1505.07	25.37%	26.53%	48.10%	+9.40	42
2025-10-18	@ Indy Eleven	L 1-2	1479.85	1468.48	30.60%	27.67%	41.74%	-6.31	42
2025-10-25	North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1473.54	1508.16	38.43%	27.94%	33.63%	-7.93	42
2025-03-08	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1561.64	1560.56	29.34%	27.48%	43.18%	+8.16	3
2025-03-16	@ Birmingham Legion	T 1-1	1569.80	1476.32	41.99%	27.64%	30.37%	-0.47	4
2025-03-22	Loudoun United	W 2-0	1569.33	1521.76	49.84%	26.08%	24.08%	+10.30	7
2025-03-29	Detroit City FC	W 2-0	1579.63	1551.86	47.17%	26.75%	26.08%	+11.07	10
2025-04-05	@ Sacramento Republic	T 1-1	1590.70	1529.71	37.36%	27.98%	34.66%	-0.11	11
2025-04-19	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-1	1590.59	1492.08	42.70%	27.55%	29.75%	+6.17	14
2025-05-01	Lexington SC	W 2-0	1596.76	1494.97	56.85%	23.69%	19.46%	+8.35	17
2025-05-10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1605.11	1519.77	54.77%	24.49%	20.74%	-1.64	18
2025-05-17	@ Hartford Athletic	T 1-1	1603.47	1441.81	51.31%	25.65%	23.04%	-1.20	19
2025-05-24	@ Monterey Bay FC	W 2-0	1602.27	1478.88	46.16%	26.97%	26.88%	+11.35	22
2025-06-07	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-1	1613.62	1454.47	63.77%	20.57%	15.65%	+3.27	25
2025-06-11	Rhode Island FC	W 2-1	1616.89	1524.17	55.71%	24.14%	20.15%	+4.33	28
2025-06-14	Birmingham Legion	W 4-2	1621.22	1462.45	63.73%	20.60%	15.67%	+5.08	31
2025-06-20	@ North Carolina FC	L 1-2	1626.30	1548.88	39.71%	27.86%	32.43%	-7.67	31
2025-06-25	@ Loudoun United	W 4-1	1618.63	1526.90	41.74%	27.67%	30.59%	+15.46	34
2025-07-04	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 1-0	1634.09	1519.91	44.88%	27.21%	27.91%	+6.21	37
2025-07-19	FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1640.30	1517.21	59.48%	22.58%	17.93%	-1.81	38
2025-08-02	North Carolina FC	W 4-1	1638.49	1549.98	55.18%	24.34%	20.48%	+10.78	41
2025-08-09	Charleston Battery	W 4-1	1649.27	1643.05	44.20%	27.33%	28.47%	+14.59	44
2025-08-16	@ Miami FC	W 4-2	1663.86	1380.58	66.19%	19.36%	14.46%	+4.61	47
2025-08-23	New Mexico United	T 0-0	1668.47	1486.00	66.44%	19.23%	14.34%	-2.57	48
2025-08-30	@ Indy Eleven	W 3-1	1665.90	1462.86	56.63%	23.78%	19.59%	+7.28	51
2025-09-06	@ Rhode Island FC	W 1-0	1673.18	1489.88	54.12%	24.72%	21.15%	+4.83	54
2025-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1678.01	1545.82	47.36%	26.71%	25.94%	+11.01	57
2025-09-20	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 3-1	1689.02	1401.97	77.10%	13.34%	9.56%	+3.08	60
2025-09-27	@ Detroit City FC	W 1-0	1692.10	1495.45	55.82%	24.09%	20.08%	+4.57	63
2025-10-04	Indy Eleven	W 2-0	1696.67	1478.45	70.33%	17.15%	12.52%	+4.98	66
2025-10-11	Miami FC	W 1-0	1701.65	1368.76	81.04%	11.07%	7.89%	+1.50	69
2025-10-18	@ Orange County SC	T 0-0	1703.15	1491.14	57.75%	23.33%	18.93%	-1.89	70
2025-10-25	Hartford Athletic	W 1-0	1701.26	1562.16	61.41%	21.71%	16.88%	+3.79	73
2025-03-08	Detroit City FC	L 0-2	1388.04	1534.19	24.52%	26.24%	49.24%	-10.47	0
2025-03-15	Indy Eleven	L 1-3	1377.57	1491.31	27.96%	27.22%	44.82%	-10.16	0
2025-03-22	Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 1-2	1367.41	1499.12	25.99%	26.72%	47.29%	-5.51	0
2025-03-29	New Mexico United	L 0-1	1361.90	1513.39	24.00%	26.05%	49.96%	-5.45	0
2025-04-12	@ San Antonio FC	W 2-1	1356.45	1504.63	16.31%	21.20%	62.49%	+10.83	3
2025-04-19	North Carolina FC	W 2-1	1367.28	1530.41	22.91%	25.60%	51.50%	+9.35	6
2025-05-04	@ Monterey Bay FC	T 1-1	1376.63	1492.22	18.45%	22.98%	58.57%	+1.74	7
2025-05-17	Loudoun United	W 2-1	1378.37	1555.41	21.68%	25.01%	53.31%	+9.60	10
2025-05-24	Birmingham Legion	L 1-2	1387.97	1464.46	32.55%	27.87%	39.58%	-6.62	10
2025-06-07	@ Rhode Island FC	W 1-0	1381.35	1535.75	15.93%	20.84%	63.22%	+11.59	13
2025-06-14	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 1-2	1392.94	1451.20	23.07%	25.67%	51.26%	-4.95	13
2025-06-18	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1387.99	1627.99	17.02%	21.83%	61.16%	+11.30	16
2025-06-21	@ Detroit City FC	L 0-2	1399.29	1525.55	17.72%	22.41%	59.87%	-7.54	16
2025-07-05	FC Tulsa	T 2-2	1391.75	1508.38	27.63%	27.15%	45.22%	+0.54	17
2025-07-12	Lexington SC	T 1-1	1392.29	1473.36	31.95%	27.82%	40.23%	+0.34	18
2025-07-19	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1392.63	1636.66	11.34%	15.68%	72.99%	-6.40	18
2025-07-29	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1386.23	1540.53	15.94%	20.85%	63.21%	+2.08	19
2025-08-06	@ Hartford Athletic	L 0-2	1388.31	1487.27	19.67%	23.83%	56.50%	-8.44	19
2025-08-09	El Paso Locomotive	T 0-0	1379.87	1488.47	28.55%	27.34%	44.11%	+0.71	20
2025-08-16	Louisville City FC	L 2-4	1380.58	1663.86	14.46%	19.36%	66.19%	-4.61	20
2025-08-23	@ Indy Eleven	L 2-3	1375.97	1458.59	20.96%	24.62%	54.42%	-4.27	20
2025-08-30	@ Loudoun United	L 1-3	1371.70	1483.55	18.72%	23.18%	58.10%	-6.94	20
2025-09-06	Hartford Athletic	L 0-1	1364.76	1518.99	23.73%	25.94%	50.32%	-5.39	20
2025-09-13	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	T 0-0	1359.37	1403.14	24.45%	26.22%	49.33%	+1.17	21
2025-09-19	Rhode Island FC	L 0-1	1360.54	1491.22	26.10%	26.75%	47.15%	-5.87	21
2025-09-26	@ North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1354.67	1538.53	14.26%	19.14%	66.59%	-3.10	21
2025-10-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1351.57	1546.94	20.18%	24.16%	55.66%	+17.19	24
2025-10-11	@ Louisville City FC	L 0-1	1368.76	1701.65	7.89%	11.07%	81.04%	-1.49	24
2025-10-19	@ Birmingham Legion	W 3-2	1367.27	1432.64	22.43%	25.38%	52.19%	+8.95	27
2025-10-25	@ Sacramento Republic	W 1-0	1376.22	1609.01	11.84%	16.31%	71.84%	+12.67	30
2025-03-08	@ San Antonio FC	L 0-1	1451.73	1478.49	26.19%	26.78%	47.03%	-5.89	0
2025-03-15	Oakland Roots	W 3-2	1445.84	1428.20	45.78%	27.04%	27.18%	+5.43	3
2025-03-22	@ Orange County SC	W 3-0	1451.27	1509.78	23.05%	25.66%	51.29%	+27.06	6
2025-03-29	Phoenix Rising	W 3-1	1478.33	1481.98	42.82%	27.53%	29.65%	+10.66	9
2025-04-05	@ Detroit City FC	T 0-0	1488.99	1540.80	23.67%	25.92%	50.40%	+1.26	10
2025-04-12	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 2-1	1490.25	1546.11	35.38%	27.99%	36.63%	+7.22	13
2025-04-19	@ Lexington SC	T 0-0	1497.47	1495.59	29.43%	27.50%	43.07%	+0.62	14
2025-04-23	@ New Mexico United	L 0-1	1498.09	1525.68	26.10%	26.75%	47.14%	-5.87	14
2025-05-04	Miami FC	T 1-1	1492.22	1376.63	58.57%	22.98%	18.45%	-1.74	15
2025-05-10	@ Rhode Island FC	T 1-1	1490.48	1517.38	26.17%	26.77%	47.05%	+0.86	16
2025-05-17	@ Phoenix Rising	L 0-2	1491.34	1483.74	30.13%	27.61%	42.27%	-12.46	16
2025-05-24	Louisville City FC	L 0-2	1478.88	1602.27	26.88%	26.97%	46.16%	-11.36	16
2025-06-07	Lexington SC	W 2-1	1467.52	1454.20	45.19%	27.15%	27.66%	+5.82	19
2025-06-14	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	L 0-2	1473.34	1442.84	33.08%	27.91%	39.02%	-13.40	19
2025-06-21	El Paso Locomotive	L 1-2	1459.94	1470.78	41.81%	27.66%	30.53%	-7.96	19
2025-07-05	@ Indy Eleven	L 0-3	1451.98	1468.82	27.27%	27.06%	45.67%	-16.69	19
2025-07-11	Orange County SC	W 2-1	1435.29	1480.02	36.98%	27.99%	35.04%	+6.99	22
2025-07-16	@ FC Tulsa	L 1-2	1442.28	1512.48	22.01%	25.17%	52.82%	-4.73	22
2025-08-06	FC Tulsa	L 2-3	1437.55	1524.27	31.22%	27.74%	41.03%	-6.08	22
2025-08-09	@ Sacramento Republic	L 0-1	1431.47	1585.90	15.93%	20.84%	63.22%	-3.54	22
2025-08-16	@ El Paso Locomotive	T 2-2	1427.93	1487.76	22.93%	25.61%	51.47%	+0.90	23
2025-08-23	San Antonio FC	T 0-0	1428.83	1478.31	36.30%	28.00%	35.71%	-0.02	24
2025-08-30	@ Oakland Roots	L 0-1	1428.81	1429.51	29.12%	27.45%	43.43%	-6.44	24
2025-09-06	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 1-2	1422.37	1523.54	19.50%	23.72%	56.77%	-4.18	24
2025-09-13	Hartford Athletic	L 0-4	1418.19	1524.38	28.83%	27.39%	43.77%	-22.84	24
2025-09-20	New Mexico United	T 1-1	1395.35	1503.11	28.65%	27.36%	43.99%	+0.63	25
2025-09-27	Sacramento Republic	W 1-0	1395.98	1615.65	18.38%	22.93%	58.69%	+10.96	28
2025-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 0-4	1406.94	1480.43	21.72%	25.03%	53.25%	-17.72	28
2025-10-18	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-3	1389.22	1534.73	24.58%	26.26%	49.16%	-15.24	28
2025-10-25	Las Vegas Lights FC	T 1-1	1373.98	1383.14	42.05%	27.63%	30.32%	-0.48	29
2025-03-08	@ Sacramento Republic	L 1-2	1505.45	1532.52	26.16%	26.77%	47.07%	-5.54	0
2025-03-15	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	W 3-2	1499.91	1518.99	27.02%	27.00%	45.98%	+8.12	3
2025-03-22	El Paso Locomotive	W 1-0	1508.03	1455.24	50.53%	25.88%	23.58%	+5.36	6
2025-03-29	@ Miami FC	W 1-0	1513.39	1361.90	49.96%	26.05%	24.00%	+5.44	9
2025-04-12	North Carolina FC	W 1-0	1518.83	1537.25	40.74%	27.77%	31.49%	+6.85	12
2025-04-23	Monterey Bay FC	W 1-0	1525.68	1498.09	47.14%	26.75%	26.10%	+5.87	15
2025-05-03	@ El Paso Locomotive	L 0-3	1531.55	1456.22	39.42%	27.88%	32.70%	-22.13	15
2025-05-10	Phoenix Rising	L 1-2	1509.42	1474.87	48.09%	26.53%	25.38%	-8.86	15
2025-05-17	@ Orange County SC	W 3-0	1500.56	1470.11	33.07%	27.91%	39.03%	+21.96	18
2025-05-24	@ Oakland Roots	W 3-0	1522.52	1420.65	43.17%	27.48%	29.35%	+17.73	21
2025-06-07	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 1-1	1540.25	1522.57	45.79%	27.04%	27.17%	-0.76	22
2025-06-14	@ Lexington SC	L 1-2	1539.49	1448.39	41.65%	27.68%	30.67%	-7.94	22
2025-06-21	San Antonio FC	W 4-2	1531.55	1493.50	48.56%	26.42%	25.02%	+8.26	25
2025-07-04	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1539.81	1534.42	29.86%	27.57%	42.58%	-6.57	25
2025-07-12	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1533.24	1630.46	29.91%	27.57%	42.52%	-6.20	25
2025-07-30	@ Hartford Athletic	L 0-4	1527.04	1458.92	38.39%	27.94%	33.67%	-28.35	25
2025-08-09	@ FC Tulsa	L 2-5	1498.69	1530.35	25.67%	26.63%	47.70%	-11.57	25
2025-08-16	Las Vegas Lights FC	T 2-2	1487.12	1396.99	55.38%	24.26%	20.35%	-1.12	26
2025-08-23	@ Louisville City FC	T 0-0	1486.00	1668.47	14.34%	19.23%	66.44%	+2.56	27
2025-08-30	Sacramento Republic	L 0-2	1488.56	1579.51	30.69%	27.68%	41.63%	-12.65	27
2025-09-06	@ San Antonio FC	W 1-0	1475.91	1479.33	28.80%	27.39%	43.81%	+8.75	30
2025-09-10	Detroit City FC	W 4-0	1484.66	1531.07	36.74%	27.99%	35.27%	+26.66	33
2025-09-13	FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1511.32	1532.93	40.29%	27.81%	31.90%	-8.21	33
2025-09-20	@ Monterey Bay FC	T 1-1	1503.11	1395.35	43.99%	27.36%	28.65%	-0.63	34
2025-09-24	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 2-1	1502.48	1514.30	27.83%	27.19%	44.98%	+8.42	37
2025-09-28	Lexington SC	W 2-1	1510.90	1499.82	44.87%	27.21%	27.92%	+5.86	40
2025-10-04	@ Phoenix Rising	W 1-0	1516.76	1488.55	32.77%	27.89%	39.34%	+8.07	43
2025-10-11	Orange County SC	T 3-3	1524.83	1484.13	48.92%	26.33%	24.75%	-0.63	44
2025-10-19	Oakland Roots	T 3-3	1524.20	1408.46	58.58%	22.97%	18.44%	-1.09	45
2025-10-25	Rhode Island FC	W 2-1	1523.11	1532.72	41.98%	27.64%	30.38%	+6.28	48
2025-03-08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1531.65	1548.31	40.99%	27.75%	31.26%	-0.39	1
2025-03-15	Loudoun United	L 1-2	1531.26	1513.22	45.84%	27.03%	27.13%	-8.54	1
2025-03-22	@ FC Tulsa	W 1-0	1522.72	1477.13	35.16%	27.99%	36.85%	+7.69	4
2025-03-29	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1530.41	1563.90	38.59%	27.93%	33.48%	+6.76	7
2025-04-05	@ Indy Eleven	T 2-2	1537.17	1495.11	34.66%	27.98%	37.36%	+0.08	8
2025-04-12	@ New Mexico United	L 0-1	1537.25	1518.83	31.49%	27.77%	40.74%	-6.84	8
2025-04-19	@ Miami FC	L 1-2	1530.41	1367.28	51.50%	25.60%	22.91%	-9.35	8
2025-05-03	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1521.06	1536.76	27.39%	27.09%	45.51%	+16.99	11
2025-05-09	Orange County SC	W 1-0	1538.05	1475.27	51.85%	25.49%	22.66%	+5.16	14
2025-05-16	Oakland Roots	W 4-2	1543.21	1426.74	58.67%	22.93%	18.39%	+6.08	17
2025-06-06	@ Hartford Athletic	W 1-0	1549.29	1443.50	43.72%	27.40%	28.88%	+6.39	20
2025-06-14	@ Rhode Island FC	L 1-2	1555.68	1519.84	33.80%	27.95%	38.25%	-6.80	20
2025-06-20	Louisville City FC	W 2-1	1548.88	1626.30	32.43%	27.86%	39.71%	+7.66	23
2025-07-06	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1556.54	1625.42	22.12%	25.23%	52.65%	-5.05	23
2025-07-11	Birmingham Legion	L 2-3	1551.49	1458.24	55.78%	24.11%	20.11%	-9.43	23
2025-07-18	Indy Eleven	W 4-2	1542.06	1492.47	50.11%	26.00%	23.89%	+7.92	26
2025-08-02	@ Louisville City FC	L 1-4	1549.98	1638.49	20.48%	24.34%	55.18%	-10.78	26
2025-08-09	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-1	1539.20	1480.90	51.26%	25.67%	23.07%	+4.95	29
2025-08-15	Detroit City FC	T 1-1	1544.15	1505.41	48.66%	26.39%	24.95%	-1.00	30
2025-08-23	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	W 2-1	1543.15	1398.12	49.09%	26.28%	24.62%	+5.26	33
2025-08-30	Hartford Athletic	L 2-3	1548.41	1530.41	45.83%	27.03%	27.14%	-8.10	33
2025-09-05	@ Lexington SC	L 1-2	1540.31	1484.13	36.67%	27.99%	35.34%	-7.23	33
2025-09-12	El Paso Locomotive	W 1-0	1533.08	1487.54	49.57%	26.15%	24.28%	+5.51	36
2025-09-20	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 2-2	1538.59	1479.93	37.03%	27.99%	34.99%	-0.06	37
2025-09-26	Miami FC	W 1-0	1538.53	1354.67	66.59%	19.14%	14.26%	+3.10	40
2025-10-01	@ Birmingham Legion	T 1-1	1541.63	1422.02	45.63%	27.07%	27.30%	-0.76	41
2025-10-04	@ Detroit City FC	L 0-2	1540.87	1490.87	35.78%	28.00%	36.22%	-14.19	41
2025-10-10	Phoenix Rising	L 0-2	1526.68	1480.48	49.66%	26.13%	24.21%	-18.17	41
2025-10-18	Rhode Island FC	T 0-0	1508.51	1532.37	39.96%	27.84%	32.20%	-0.35	42
2025-10-25	@ Loudoun United	W 1-0	1508.16	1473.54	33.63%	27.94%	38.43%	+7.93	45
2025-03-08	@ Orange County SC	L 2-4	1435.61	1502.79	22.27%	25.30%	52.43%	-7.41	0
2025-03-15	@ Monterey Bay FC	L 2-3	1428.20	1445.84	27.18%	27.04%	45.78%	-5.44	0
2025-03-22	San Antonio FC	L 1-2	1422.76	1499.16	32.56%	27.87%	39.57%	-6.62	0
2025-03-29	Las Vegas Lights FC	T 0-0	1416.14	1510.87	30.22%	27.62%	42.17%	+0.54	1
2025-04-05	Rhode Island FC	L 0-3	1416.68	1511.62	30.19%	27.61%	42.20%	-18.14	1
2025-04-12	@ FC Tulsa	W 2-1	1398.54	1477.36	21.27%	24.79%	53.94%	+9.69	4
2025-04-19	Orange County SC	W 2-0	1408.23	1484.01	32.64%	27.88%	39.48%	+15.26	7
2025-05-04	Sacramento Republic	L 0-1	1423.49	1522.68	29.67%	27.54%	42.79%	-6.54	7
2025-05-10	@ San Antonio FC	W 2-1	1416.95	1501.27	20.82%	24.54%	54.64%	+9.79	10
2025-05-16	@ North Carolina FC	L 2-4	1426.74	1543.21	18.39%	22.93%	58.67%	-6.09	10
2025-05-24	New Mexico United	L 0-3	1420.65	1522.52	29.35%	27.48%	43.17%	-17.73	10
2025-06-07	El Paso Locomotive	T 0-0	1402.92	1497.60	30.22%	27.62%	42.16%	+0.54	11
2025-06-14	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 0-1	1403.46	1523.34	18.16%	22.75%	59.09%	-4.11	11
2025-06-21	@ Birmingham Legion	W 1-0	1399.35	1465.69	22.35%	25.34%	52.32%	+10.04	14
2025-07-05	Detroit City FC	W 2-0	1409.39	1533.09	26.85%	26.96%	46.20%	+17.18	17
2025-07-12	Phoenix Rising	L 1-2	1426.57	1494.19	33.74%	27.94%	38.31%	-6.80	17
2025-07-19	@ Loudoun United	W 2-0	1419.77	1511.09	20.26%	24.21%	55.53%	+19.81	20
2025-08-09	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 1-2	1439.58	1530.33	30.71%	27.68%	41.61%	-6.33	20
2025-08-16	@ Sacramento Republic	T 3-3	1433.25	1589.44	15.83%	20.74%	63.43%	+1.30	21
2025-08-23	@ Lexington SC	L 1-2	1434.55	1487.70	23.55%	25.87%	50.58%	-5.04	21
2025-08-30	Monterey Bay FC	W 1-0	1429.51	1428.81	43.43%	27.45%	29.12%	+6.43	24
2025-09-07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1435.94	1533.43	29.88%	27.57%	42.55%	-12.38	24
2025-09-13	@ Charleston Battery	T 3-3	1423.56	1636.96	12.76%	17.43%	69.82%	+1.55	25
2025-09-20	FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1425.11	1541.14	27.70%	27.16%	45.14%	+0.72	26
2025-09-27	@ Phoenix Rising	T 3-3	1425.83	1489.32	22.60%	25.46%	51.95%	+0.77	27
2025-10-01	@ El Paso Locomotive	L 1-3	1426.60	1471.62	24.33%	26.17%	49.50%	-9.00	27
2025-10-07	Hartford Athletic	L 1-3	1417.60	1553.81	25.52%	26.58%	47.90%	-9.40	27
2025-10-11	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	T 2-2	1408.20	1387.98	31.72%	27.80%	40.48%	+0.26	28
2025-10-19	@ New Mexico United	T 3-3	1408.46	1524.20	18.44%	22.97%	58.58%	+1.09	29
2025-10-25	Lexington SC	W 3-0	1409.55	1471.06	34.59%	27.98%	37.44%	+21.30	32
2025-03-08	Oakland Roots	W 4-2	1502.79	1435.61	52.43%	25.30%	22.27%	+7.42	3
2025-03-15	Lexington SC	T 2-2	1510.21	1511.09	43.21%	27.48%	29.31%	-0.43	4
2025-03-22	Monterey Bay FC	L 0-3	1509.78	1451.27	51.29%	25.66%	23.05%	-27.06	4
2025-04-05	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	L 0-1	1482.72	1510.33	26.10%	26.75%	47.15%	-5.87	4
2025-04-12	Sacramento Republic	W 2-1	1476.85	1529.82	35.79%	28.00%	36.21%	+7.16	7
2025-04-19	@ Oakland Roots	L 0-2	1484.01	1408.23	39.48%	27.88%	32.64%	-15.25	7
2025-05-03	FC Tulsa	W 2-1	1468.76	1490.05	40.33%	27.81%	31.86%	+6.51	10
2025-05-09	@ North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1475.27	1538.05	22.66%	25.49%	51.85%	-5.16	10
2025-05-17	New Mexico United	L 0-3	1470.11	1500.56	39.03%	27.91%	33.07%	-21.97	10
2025-05-24	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 3-1	1448.14	1536.21	31.05%	27.72%	41.23%	+13.65	13
2025-06-07	@ Phoenix Rising	L 1-3	1461.79	1504.27	24.58%	26.26%	49.16%	-9.09	13
2025-06-14	@ El Paso Locomotive	W 3-0	1452.70	1497.06	24.39%	26.20%	49.41%	+26.29	16
2025-07-03	@ Loudoun United	T 0-0	1478.99	1511.45	25.59%	26.60%	47.81%	+1.03	17
2025-07-11	@ Monterey Bay FC	L 1-2	1480.02	1435.29	35.04%	27.99%	36.98%	-6.99	17
2025-07-19	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 4-0	1473.03	1448.10	46.78%	26.83%	26.38%	+21.20	20
2025-07-30	Phoenix Rising	W 4-1	1494.23	1500.99	42.38%	27.59%	30.03%	+15.23	23
2025-08-09	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1509.46	1549.15	24.85%	26.36%	48.78%	+1.00	24
2025-08-16	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 1-0	1510.46	1536.66	26.25%	26.80%	46.96%	+9.23	27
2025-08-23	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1519.69	1542.19	26.65%	26.90%	46.45%	-5.98	27
2025-08-30	Birmingham Legion	T 4-4	1513.71	1442.77	52.92%	25.14%	21.94%	-0.72	28
2025-09-06	@ Detroit City FC	L 1-4	1512.99	1516.34	28.81%	27.39%	43.80%	-14.73	28
2025-09-12	@ Lexington SC	T 1-1	1498.26	1491.36	30.04%	27.59%	42.36%	+0.50	29
2025-09-20	@ San Antonio FC	L 1-3	1498.76	1489.11	30.38%	27.64%	41.98%	-10.87	29
2025-09-27	Charleston Battery	T 2-2	1487.89	1645.60	23.41%	25.81%	50.78%	+0.87	30
2025-10-01	@ Sacramento Republic	L 1-2	1488.76	1604.69	18.43%	22.96%	58.61%	-3.94	30
2025-10-04	El Paso Locomotive	T 0-0	1484.82	1480.62	43.92%	27.37%	28.71%	-0.69	31
2025-10-11	@ New Mexico United	T 3-3	1484.13	1524.83	24.75%	26.33%	48.92%	+0.62	32
2025-10-15	San Antonio FC	W 1-0	1484.75	1481.84	43.74%	27.40%	28.86%	+6.39	35
2025-10-18	Louisville City FC	T 0-0	1491.14	1703.15	18.93%	23.33%	57.75%	+1.89	36
2025-10-25	Indy Eleven	W 2-1	1493.03	1474.79	45.86%	27.02%	27.11%	+5.71	39
2025-03-08	FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1491.22	1460.57	47.56%	26.66%	25.78%	-9.32	0
2025-03-15	@ El Paso Locomotive	T 4-4	1481.90	1455.39	32.54%	27.87%	39.59%	+0.15	1
2025-03-22	Rhode Island FC	T 2-2	1482.05	1524.22	37.35%	27.98%	34.67%	-0.07	2
2025-03-29	@ Monterey Bay FC	L 1-3	1481.98	1478.33	29.65%	27.53%	42.82%	-10.66	2
2025-04-06	@ San Antonio FC	W 2-1	1471.32	1513.64	24.59%	26.27%	49.14%	+9.01	5
2025-04-12	Detroit City FC	L 2-3	1480.33	1539.54	34.91%	27.98%	37.11%	-6.62	5
2025-04-19	Sacramento Republic	T 2-2	1473.71	1522.66	36.37%	27.99%	35.63%	-0.02	6
2025-05-03	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 1-1	1473.69	1530.83	23.18%	25.71%	51.11%	+1.18	7
2025-05-10	@ New Mexico United	W 2-1	1474.87	1509.42	25.38%	26.53%	48.09%	+8.87	10
2025-05-17	Monterey Bay FC	W 2-0	1483.74	1491.34	42.27%	27.61%	30.13%	+12.46	13
2025-05-28	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	W 1-0	1496.20	1467.64	32.82%	27.89%	39.29%	+8.07	16
2025-06-07	Orange County SC	W 3-1	1504.27	1461.79	49.16%	26.26%	24.58%	+9.08	19
2025-06-14	@ FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1513.35	1508.91	29.74%	27.55%	42.71%	+0.53	20
2025-06-21	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-4	1513.88	1616.69	19.38%	23.64%	56.98%	-10.18	20
2025-07-04	Lexington SC	L 0-1	1503.70	1463.86	48.80%	26.36%	24.84%	-9.51	20
2025-07-12	@ Oakland Roots	W 2-1	1494.19	1426.57	38.31%	27.94%	33.74%	+6.80	23
2025-07-30	@ Orange County SC	L 1-4	1500.99	1494.23	30.03%	27.59%	42.38%	-15.23	23
2025-08-02	Birmingham Legion	T 3-3	1485.76	1459.99	46.90%	26.81%	26.29%	-0.53	24
2025-08-09	@ Lexington SC	L 0-2	1485.23	1465.90	31.61%	27.79%	40.61%	-12.94	24
2025-08-16	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	T 1-1	1472.29	1475.95	28.77%	27.38%	43.84%	+0.62	25
2025-08-23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 4-1	1472.91	1527.44	35.57%	27.99%	36.44%	+17.61	28
2025-08-30	El Paso Locomotive	T 3-3	1490.52	1495.50	42.64%	27.56%	29.81%	-0.32	29
2025-09-05	Las Vegas Lights FC	T 0-0	1490.20	1401.47	55.20%	24.33%	20.47%	-1.67	30
2025-09-13	@ Sacramento Republic	T 2-2	1488.53	1603.64	18.49%	23.01%	58.51%	+1.30	31
2025-09-20	Loudoun United	T 2-2	1489.83	1480.24	44.67%	27.25%	28.09%	-0.51	32
2025-09-27	Oakland Roots	T 3-3	1489.32	1425.83	51.95%	25.46%	22.60%	-0.77	33
2025-10-04	New Mexico United	L 0-1	1488.55	1516.76	39.34%	27.89%	32.77%	-8.07	33
2025-10-10	@ North Carolina FC	W 2-0	1480.48	1526.68	24.21%	26.13%	49.66%	+18.16	36
2025-10-18	San Antonio FC	W 1-0	1498.64	1475.45	46.54%	26.88%	26.57%	+5.97	39
2025-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1504.61	1549.97	24.29%	26.16%	49.55%	+1.18	40
2025-03-08	@ North Carolina FC	T 1-1	1548.31	1531.65	31.26%	27.75%	40.99%	+0.39	1
2025-03-15	@ San Antonio FC	L 0-2	1548.70	1484.38	37.84%	27.96%	34.20%	-14.79	1
2025-03-22	Hartford Athletic	W 1-0	1533.91	1461.96	53.05%	25.10%	21.85%	+4.99	4
2025-03-29	Birmingham Legion	W 2-0	1538.90	1477.81	51.63%	25.56%	22.82%	+9.79	7
2025-04-12	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1548.69	1562.20	27.64%	27.15%	45.21%	-5.81	7
2025-04-19	@ Loudoun United	L 1-2	1542.88	1540.90	29.44%	27.50%	43.06%	-6.12	7
2025-05-03	North Carolina FC	L 0-2	1536.76	1521.06	45.51%	27.09%	27.39%	-16.99	7
2025-05-10	@ Louisville City FC	T 0-0	1519.77	1605.11	20.74%	24.49%	54.77%	+1.64	8
2025-05-17	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 0-1	1521.41	1529.94	28.21%	27.27%	44.52%	-6.27	8
2025-05-24	@ Rhode Island FC	W 1-0	1515.14	1545.06	25.86%	26.68%	47.46%	+9.30	11
2025-06-07	Detroit City FC	W 2-0	1524.44	1543.99	40.58%	27.79%	31.63%	+12.96	14
2025-06-14	@ Indy Eleven	L 0-1	1537.40	1482.10	36.55%	27.99%	35.46%	-7.65	14
2025-06-21	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-1	1529.75	1456.15	53.26%	25.02%	21.71%	+4.67	17
2025-07-04	New Mexico United	W 1-0	1534.42	1539.81	42.58%	27.57%	29.86%	+6.56	20
2025-07-13	Loudoun United	T 2-2	1540.98	1510.42	47.55%	26.66%	25.79%	-0.67	21
2025-07-18	@ Detroit City FC	T 0-0	1540.31	1506.60	33.51%	27.93%	38.56%	+0.22	22
2025-07-29	Miami FC	T 1-1	1540.53	1386.23	63.21%	20.85%	15.94%	-2.07	23
2025-08-02	Rhode Island FC	W 2-0	1538.46	1501.32	48.44%	26.45%	25.11%	+10.69	26
2025-08-09	Orange County SC	T 1-1	1549.15	1509.46	48.78%	26.36%	24.85%	-1.00	27
2025-08-16	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1548.15	1628.46	32.05%	27.83%	40.12%	-6.54	27
2025-08-23	@ Birmingham Legion	T 1-1	1541.61	1442.24	42.82%	27.53%	29.65%	-0.53	28
2025-08-30	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	L 1-2	1541.08	1464.40	39.61%	27.87%	32.53%	-7.65	28
2025-09-07	@ Oakland Roots	W 2-0	1533.43	1435.94	42.55%	27.57%	29.88%	+12.39	31
2025-09-13	Louisville City FC	L 0-2	1545.82	1678.01	25.94%	26.71%	47.36%	-11.01	31
2025-09-20	@ Hartford Athletic	W 2-1	1534.81	1547.21	27.76%	27.18%	45.06%	+8.43	34
2025-09-28	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 1-0	1543.24	1398.89	62.04%	21.41%	16.55%	+3.70	37
2025-10-04	@ Miami FC	L 1-3	1546.94	1351.57	55.66%	24.16%	20.18%	-17.19	37
2025-10-11	Indy Eleven	W 2-1	1529.75	1473.46	51.00%	25.75%	23.26%	+4.98	40
2025-10-18	@ Monterey Bay FC	W 3-0	1534.73	1389.22	49.16%	26.26%	24.58%	+15.24	43
2025-10-25	Phoenix Rising	T 0-0	1549.97	1504.61	49.55%	26.16%	24.29%	-1.18	44
2025-03-15	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1535.71	1552.41	27.28%	27.07%	45.65%	-11.49	0
2025-03-22	@ Phoenix Rising	T 2-2	1524.22	1482.05	34.67%	27.98%	37.35%	+0.07	1
2025-03-29	@ Loudoun United	L 0-2	1524.29	1511.46	30.78%	27.69%	41.53%	-12.67	1
2025-04-05	@ Oakland Roots	W 3-0	1511.62	1416.68	42.20%	27.61%	30.19%	+18.13	4
2025-04-19	@ Detroit City FC	L 0-2	1529.75	1546.15	27.32%	27.07%	45.61%	-11.51	4
2025-05-03	San Antonio FC	T 0-0	1518.24	1500.41	45.81%	27.03%	27.16%	-0.86	5
2025-05-10	Monterey Bay FC	T 1-1	1517.38	1490.48	47.05%	26.77%	26.17%	-0.86	6
2025-05-14	@ Birmingham Legion	W 1-0	1516.52	1471.71	35.05%	27.99%	36.97%	+7.71	9
2025-05-17	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 3-0	1524.23	1474.72	35.71%	28.00%	36.29%	+20.83	12
2025-05-24	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1545.06	1515.14	47.46%	26.68%	25.86%	-9.31	12
2025-06-07	Miami FC	L 0-1	1535.75	1381.35	63.22%	20.84%	15.93%	-11.58	12
2025-06-11	@ Louisville City FC	L 1-2	1524.17	1616.89	20.15%	24.14%	55.71%	-4.33	12
2025-06-14	North Carolina FC	W 2-1	1519.84	1555.68	38.25%	27.95%	33.80%	+6.81	15
2025-06-21	Sacramento Republic	L 0-2	1526.65	1534.74	42.20%	27.61%	30.19%	-16.04	15
2025-07-05	Birmingham Legion	T 1-1	1510.61	1457.10	50.63%	25.86%	23.51%	-1.14	16
2025-07-12	@ Indy Eleven	L 0-1	1509.47	1485.51	32.21%	27.84%	39.95%	-6.97	16
2025-07-19	Hartford Athletic	T 0-0	1502.50	1457.74	49.47%	26.18%	24.35%	-1.18	17
2025-08-02	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1501.32	1538.46	25.11%	26.45%	48.44%	-10.69	17
2025-08-06	Detroit City FC	W 1-0	1490.63	1506.37	41.12%	27.74%	31.15%	+6.78	20
2025-08-09	Loudoun United	T 0-0	1497.41	1486.03	44.92%	27.20%	27.88%	-0.78	21
2025-08-23	@ Hartford Athletic	L 0-3	1496.63	1513.73	27.24%	27.05%	45.71%	-16.67	21
2025-08-30	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1479.96	1643.60	22.86%	25.57%	51.57%	+9.92	24
2025-09-06	Louisville City FC	L 0-1	1489.88	1673.18	21.15%	24.72%	54.12%	-4.82	24
2025-09-13	Indy Eleven	W 1-0	1485.06	1471.82	45.17%	27.16%	27.67%	+6.16	27
2025-09-19	@ Miami FC	W 1-0	1491.22	1360.54	47.15%	26.75%	26.10%	+5.87	30
2025-09-26	@ El Paso Locomotive	T 2-2	1497.09	1471.84	32.38%	27.86%	39.77%	+0.22	31
2025-10-05	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 3-1	1497.31	1395.19	56.89%	23.67%	19.43%	+7.22	34
2025-10-11	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 5-0	1504.53	1498.15	44.22%	27.32%	28.46%	+27.84	37
2025-10-18	@ North Carolina FC	T 0-0	1532.37	1508.51	32.20%	27.84%	39.96%	+0.35	38
2025-10-25	@ New Mexico United	L 1-2	1532.72	1523.11	30.38%	27.64%	41.98%	-6.27	38
2025-03-08	New Mexico United	W 2-1	1532.52	1505.45	47.07%	26.77%	26.16%	+5.54	3
2025-03-22	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 2-2	1538.06	1538.64	43.25%	27.47%	29.28%	-0.42	4
2025-03-28	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1537.64	1469.44	38.40%	27.94%	33.66%	-7.93	4
2025-04-05	Louisville City FC	T 1-1	1529.71	1590.70	34.66%	27.98%	37.36%	+0.11	5
2025-04-12	@ Orange County SC	L 1-2	1529.82	1476.85	36.21%	28.00%	35.79%	-7.16	5
2025-04-19	@ Phoenix Rising	T 2-2	1522.66	1473.71	35.63%	27.99%	36.37%	+0.02	6
2025-05-04	@ Oakland Roots	W 1-0	1522.68	1423.49	42.79%	27.54%	29.67%	+6.53	9
2025-05-10	Indy Eleven	T 1-1	1529.21	1483.63	49.57%	26.15%	24.27%	-1.06	10
2025-05-17	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 5-0	1528.15	1501.51	47.02%	26.78%	26.20%	+25.97	13
2025-06-07	FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1554.12	1499.10	50.83%	25.80%	23.37%	-9.81	13
2025-06-14	San Antonio FC	T 0-0	1544.31	1492.24	50.44%	25.91%	23.65%	-1.27	14
2025-06-18	@ Birmingham Legion	L 0-1	1543.04	1457.38	40.88%	27.76%	31.36%	-8.30	14
2025-06-21	@ Rhode Island FC	W 2-0	1534.74	1526.65	30.19%	27.61%	42.20%	+16.03	17
2025-07-04	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	W 2-0	1550.77	1465.62	40.81%	27.77%	31.42%	+12.89	20
2025-07-12	El Paso Locomotive	W 3-0	1563.66	1470.69	55.74%	24.13%	20.13%	+12.56	23
2025-07-19	Lexington SC	T 0-0	1576.22	1473.03	57.03%	23.62%	19.35%	-1.83	24
2025-08-02	@ San Antonio FC	W 3-1	1574.39	1499.11	39.41%	27.88%	32.71%	+11.51	27
2025-08-09	Monterey Bay FC	W 1-0	1585.90	1431.47	63.22%	20.84%	15.93%	+3.54	30
2025-08-16	Oakland Roots	T 3-3	1589.44	1433.25	63.43%	20.74%	15.83%	-1.30	31
2025-08-23	@ El Paso Locomotive	L 0-1	1588.14	1486.86	43.09%	27.50%	29.42%	-8.63	31
2025-08-30	@ New Mexico United	W 2-0	1579.51	1488.56	41.63%	27.68%	30.69%	+12.64	34
2025-09-06	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 2-0	1592.15	1472.04	45.70%	27.06%	27.24%	+11.49	37
2025-09-13	Phoenix Rising	T 2-2	1603.64	1488.53	58.51%	23.01%	18.49%	-1.30	38
2025-09-20	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 2-0	1602.34	1527.61	39.33%	27.89%	32.78%	+13.31	41
2025-09-27	@ Monterey Bay FC	L 0-1	1615.65	1395.98	58.69%	22.93%	18.38%	-10.96	41
2025-10-01	Orange County SC	W 2-1	1604.69	1488.76	58.61%	22.96%	18.43%	+3.93	44
2025-10-11	@ Hartford Athletic	L 2-3	1608.62	1563.21	35.13%	27.99%	36.88%	-6.64	44
2025-10-17	@ Lexington SC	T 2-2	1601.98	1470.40	47.27%	26.73%	26.00%	-0.66	45
2025-10-22	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1601.32	1658.68	35.17%	27.99%	36.84%	+7.69	48
2025-10-25	Miami FC	L 0-1	1609.01	1376.22	71.84%	16.31%	11.84%	-12.66	48
2025-03-08	Monterey Bay FC	W 1-0	1478.49	1451.73	47.03%	26.78%	26.19%	+5.89	3
2025-03-15	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1484.38	1548.70	34.20%	27.96%	37.84%	+14.78	6
2025-03-22	@ Oakland Roots	W 2-1	1499.16	1422.76	39.57%	27.87%	32.56%	+6.62	9
2025-03-29	@ Lexington SC	W 3-2	1505.78	1510.83	28.61%	27.35%	44.04%	+7.86	12
2025-04-06	Phoenix Rising	L 1-2	1513.64	1471.32	49.14%	26.27%	24.59%	-9.01	12
2025-04-12	Miami FC	L 1-2	1504.63	1356.45	62.49%	21.20%	16.31%	-10.83	12
2025-04-23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 3-2	1493.80	1537.44	37.13%	27.98%	34.88%	+6.61	15
2025-05-03	@ Rhode Island FC	T 0-0	1500.41	1518.24	27.16%	27.03%	45.81%	+0.86	16
2025-05-10	Oakland Roots	L 1-2	1501.27	1416.95	54.64%	24.54%	20.82%	-9.78	16
2025-05-17	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-4	1491.49	1595.92	19.26%	23.56%	57.18%	-15.67	16
2025-05-28	FC Tulsa	T 1-1	1475.82	1498.78	40.09%	27.83%	32.08%	-0.32	17
2025-06-07	Las Vegas Lights FC	W 3-0	1475.50	1459.58	45.54%	27.09%	27.37%	+16.74	20
2025-06-14	@ Sacramento Republic	T 0-0	1492.24	1544.31	23.65%	25.91%	50.44%	+1.26	21
2025-06-21	@ New Mexico United	L 2-4	1493.50	1531.55	25.02%	26.42%	48.56%	-8.26	21
2025-07-04	@ El Paso Locomotive	W 2-1	1485.24	1478.74	29.99%	27.59%	42.42%	+8.05	24
2025-07-12	Tampa Bay Rowdies	W 1-0	1493.29	1463.03	47.51%	26.67%	25.82%	+5.82	27
2025-08-02	Sacramento Republic	L 1-3	1499.11	1574.39	32.71%	27.88%	39.41%	-11.51	27
2025-08-09	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	T 1-1	1487.60	1396.55	41.65%	27.68%	30.67%	-0.44	28
2025-08-16	Lexington SC	L 0-1	1487.16	1478.85	44.49%	27.28%	28.23%	-8.85	28
2025-08-23	@ Monterey Bay FC	T 0-0	1478.31	1428.83	35.71%	28.00%	36.30%	+0.02	29
2025-08-30	@ Detroit City FC	T 1-1	1478.33	1517.33	24.92%	26.38%	48.69%	+1.00	30
2025-09-06	New Mexico United	L 0-1	1479.33	1475.91	43.81%	27.39%	28.80%	-8.75	30
2025-09-13	@ Loudoun United	W 5-2	1470.58	1498.77	26.04%	26.74%	47.23%	+18.53	33
2025-09-20	Orange County SC	W 3-1	1489.11	1498.76	41.98%	27.64%	30.38%	+10.87	36
2025-09-27	Birmingham Legion	T 0-0	1499.98	1420.45	54.03%	24.76%	21.21%	-1.57	37
2025-10-04	@ Colorado Springs Switchbacks	L 0-1	1498.41	1490.86	30.12%	27.60%	42.27%	-6.61	37
2025-10-11	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-2	1491.80	1548.36	23.23%	25.74%	51.03%	-9.96	37
2025-10-15	@ Orange County SC	L 0-1	1481.84	1484.75	28.86%	27.40%	43.74%	-6.39	37
2025-10-18	@ Phoenix Rising	L 0-1	1475.45	1498.64	26.57%	26.88%	46.54%	-5.96	37
2025-10-25	El Paso Locomotive	W 5-2	1469.49	1489.63	40.49%	27.80%	31.71%	+13.76	40
2025-03-08	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	L 0-1	1512.81	1512.54	29.24%	27.47%	43.30%	-6.46	0
2025-03-15	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1506.35	1469.89	33.89%	27.95%	38.17%	-7.23	0
2025-03-22	@ Miami FC	W 2-1	1499.12	1367.41	47.29%	26.72%	25.99%	+5.51	3
2025-04-05	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1504.63	1557.14	23.61%	25.89%	50.50%	-5.06	3
2025-04-12	Loudoun United	L 1-2	1499.57	1533.41	38.54%	27.93%	33.53%	-7.49	3
2025-04-19	Louisville City FC	L 1-2	1492.08	1590.59	29.75%	27.55%	42.70%	-6.17	3
2025-05-03	Birmingham Legion	T 2-2	1485.91	1471.16	45.38%	27.12%	27.50%	-0.55	4
2025-05-10	Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1485.36	1585.27	29.58%	27.52%	42.90%	-10.64	4
2025-05-17	Rhode Island FC	L 0-3	1474.72	1524.23	36.29%	28.00%	35.71%	-20.83	4
2025-05-24	@ Lexington SC	T 1-1	1453.89	1454.78	29.10%	27.44%	43.46%	+0.58	5
2025-06-07	@ Louisville City FC	L 1-2	1454.47	1613.62	15.65%	20.57%	63.77%	-3.27	5
2025-06-14	Miami FC	W 2-1	1451.20	1392.94	51.26%	25.67%	23.07%	+4.95	8
2025-06-21	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1456.15	1529.75	21.71%	25.02%	53.26%	-4.67	8
2025-06-25	Indy Eleven	W 3-1	1451.48	1480.36	39.25%	27.89%	32.86%	+11.55	11
2025-07-12	@ San Antonio FC	L 0-1	1463.03	1493.29	25.82%	26.67%	47.51%	-5.81	11
2025-07-16	@ Hartford Athletic	W 1-0	1457.22	1466.61	28.11%	27.25%	44.64%	+8.87	14
2025-08-02	@ Indy Eleven	W 3-1	1466.09	1484.55	27.09%	27.02%	45.89%	+14.81	17
2025-08-09	@ North Carolina FC	L 1-2	1480.90	1539.20	23.07%	25.67%	51.26%	-4.95	17
2025-08-16	Phoenix Rising	T 1-1	1475.95	1472.29	43.84%	27.38%	28.77%	-0.62	18
2025-08-23	@ Detroit City FC	L 0-2	1475.33	1506.40	25.74%	26.65%	47.62%	-10.93	18
2025-08-30	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1464.40	1541.08	32.53%	27.87%	39.61%	+7.64	21
2025-09-06	Sacramento Republic	L 0-2	1472.04	1592.15	27.24%	27.06%	45.70%	-11.48	21
2025-09-13	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	T 3-3	1460.56	1527.72	33.81%	27.95%	38.25%	+0.11	22
2025-09-17	@ Birmingham Legion	W 4-1	1460.67	1445.01	31.14%	27.73%	41.13%	+19.26	25
2025-09-20	North Carolina FC	T 2-2	1479.93	1538.59	34.99%	27.99%	37.03%	+0.06	26
2025-09-28	@ Loudoun United	T 2-2	1479.99	1480.74	29.12%	27.44%	43.44%	+0.44	27
2025-10-04	Monterey Bay FC	W 4-0	1480.43	1406.94	53.25%	25.03%	21.72%	+17.72	30
2025-10-11	@ Rhode Island FC	L 0-5	1498.15	1504.53	28.46%	27.32%	44.22%	-27.84	30
2025-10-18	Hartford Athletic	W 3-2	1470.31	1569.85	29.63%	27.53%	42.84%	+7.69	33
2025-10-25	Detroit City FC	T 1-1	1478.00	1497.83	40.54%	27.79%	31.67%	-0.35	34

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2025-11-02	Rhode Island FC	T 0-0	1653.38	1526.45	73.64%	0.00%	26.36%	-2.07	0-0
2025-11-01	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1472.31	1571.76	29.54%	0.00%	70.46%	-4.47	0-1
2025-11-01	@ Louisville City FC	W 1-0	1498.19	1705.05	18.43%	0.00%	81.57%	+12.33	1-0
2025-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1510.52	1548.26	37.43%	0.00%	62.57%	+1.10	1-0
2025-11-01	Phoenix Rising	L 0-1	1475.87	1505.79	53.10%	0.00%	46.90%	-8.03	0-1
2025-11-01	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	W 1-0	1571.76	1472.31	70.46%	0.00%	29.54%	+4.47	1-0
2025-11-08	Phoenix Rising	W 1-0	1576.23	1513.83	65.83%	0.00%	34.17%	+5.17	2-0
2025-11-15	New Mexico United	W 3-0	1581.40	1545.05	62.38%	0.00%	37.62%	+15.58	3-0
2025-11-22	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1596.98	1553.56	63.33%	0.00%	36.67%	-1.16	3-0
2025-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1558.37	1548.79	43.99%	0.00%	56.01%	+0.53	0-0
2025-11-01	@ North Carolina FC	L 0-1	1465.61	1516.09	35.73%	0.00%	64.27%	-5.41	0-1
2025-11-01	Detroit City FC	L 0-1	1705.05	1498.19	81.57%	0.00%	18.43%	-12.34	0-1
2025-11-01	San Antonio FC	W 2-0	1529.39	1483.25	63.70%	0.00%	36.30%	+10.35	1-0
2025-11-08	Orange County SC	W 2-1	1539.74	1500.51	62.77%	0.00%	37.23%	+5.31	2-0
2025-11-15	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-3	1545.05	1581.40	37.62%	0.00%	62.38%	-15.58	2-1
2025-11-01	Loudoun United	W 1-0	1516.09	1465.61	64.27%	0.00%	35.73%	+5.40	1-0
2025-11-08	Rhode Island FC	L 0-2	1521.49	1528.51	56.37%	0.00%	43.63%	-16.07	1-1
2025-11-02	@ Sacramento Republic	T 0-0	1498.74	1596.35	29.77%	0.00%	70.23%	+1.77	0-0
2025-11-08	@ New Mexico United	L 1-2	1500.51	1539.74	37.23%	0.00%	62.77%	-5.31	0-1
2025-11-01	@ El Paso Locomotive	W 1-0	1505.79	1475.87	46.90%	0.00%	53.10%	+8.04	1-0
2025-11-08	@ FC Tulsa	L 0-1	1513.83	1576.23	34.17%	0.00%	65.83%	-5.17	1-1
2025-11-01	Hartford Athletic	T 0-0	1548.79	1558.37	56.01%	0.00%	43.99%	-0.53	0-0
2025-11-08	Detroit City FC	T 0-0	1548.26	1510.52	62.57%	0.00%	37.43%	-1.10	0-0
2025-11-15	Rhode Island FC	W 1-0	1547.16	1544.59	57.72%	0.00%	42.28%	+6.40	1-0
2025-11-22	@ FC Tulsa	T 0-0	1553.56	1596.98	36.67%	0.00%	63.33%	+1.16	1-0
2025-11-02	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1526.45	1653.38	26.36%	0.00%	73.64%	+2.06	0-0
2025-11-08	@ North Carolina FC	W 2-0	1528.51	1521.49	43.63%	0.00%	56.37%	+16.08	1-0
2025-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1544.59	1547.16	42.28%	0.00%	57.72%	-6.40	1-1
2025-11-02	Orange County SC	T 0-0	1596.35	1498.74	70.23%	0.00%	29.77%	-1.77	0-0
2025-11-01	@ New Mexico United	L 0-2	1483.25	1529.39	36.30%	0.00%	63.70%	-10.35	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-10-25	11.84%	Miami FC	1376.22	1	@ Sacramento Republic	1609.01	0
2	2025-06-07	15.93%	Miami FC	1381.35	1	@ Rhode Island FC	1535.75	0
3	2025-04-12	16.31%	Miami FC	1356.45	2	@ San Antonio FC	1504.63	1
4	2025-06-18	17.02%	@ Miami FC	1387.99	1	Charleston Battery	1627.99	0
5	2025-09-27	18.38%	@ Monterey Bay FC	1395.98	1	Sacramento Republic	1615.65	0
6	2025-11-01 *	18.43%	Detroit City FC	1498.19	1	@ Louisville City FC	1705.05	0
7	2025-07-11	20.11%	Birmingham Legion	1458.24	3	@ North Carolina FC	1551.49	2
8	2025-10-04	20.18%	@ Miami FC	1351.57	3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1546.94	1
9	2025-07-19	20.26%	Oakland Roots	1419.77	2	@ Loudoun United	1511.09	0
10	2025-05-10	20.82%	Oakland Roots	1416.95	2	@ San Antonio FC	1501.27	1
11	2025-09-03	20.93%	Indy Eleven	1455.58	2	@ Hartford Athletic	1538.51	0
12	2025-04-12	21.27%	Oakland Roots	1398.54	2	@ FC Tulsa	1477.36	1
13	2025-05-17	21.68%	@ Miami FC	1378.37	2	Loudoun United	1555.41	1
14	2025-06-21	22.35%	Oakland Roots	1399.35	1	@ Birmingham Legion	1465.69	0
15	2025-10-19	22.43%	Miami FC	1367.27	3	@ Birmingham Legion	1432.64	2
16	2025-08-30	22.86%	@ Rhode Island FC	1479.96	1	Charleston Battery	1643.60	0
17	2025-04-19	22.91%	@ Miami FC	1367.28	2	North Carolina FC	1530.41	1
18	2025-07-12	23.04%	Hartford Athletic	1457.30	2	@ Detroit City FC	1515.91	1
19	2025-03-22	23.05%	Monterey Bay FC	1451.27	3	@ Orange County SC	1509.78	0
20	2025-10-04	23.14%	Birmingham Legion	1422.78	1	@ Loudoun United	1480.31	0
21	2025-06-07	23.37%	FC Tulsa	1499.10	1	@ Sacramento Republic	1554.12	0
22	2025-04-19	23.95%	FC Tulsa	1467.68	4	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	1516.59	1
23	2025-10-10	24.21%	Phoenix Rising	1480.48	2	@ North Carolina FC	1526.68	0
24	2025-06-14	24.39%	Orange County SC	1452.70	3	@ El Paso Locomotive	1497.06	0
25	2025-04-06	24.59%	Phoenix Rising	1471.32	2	@ San Antonio FC	1513.64	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-08-02	30.35	@ El Paso Locomotive	6	1458.13	47.64%	Las Vegas Lights FC	0	1426.90	25.72%	26.64%
2	2025-07-30	28.35	@ Hartford Athletic	4	1458.92	33.67%	New Mexico United	0	1527.04	38.39%	27.94%
3	2025-10-11	27.84	@ Rhode Island FC	5	1504.53	44.22%	Tampa Bay Rowdies	0	1498.15	28.46%	27.32%
4	2025-03-22	27.06	Monterey Bay FC	3	1451.27	23.05%	@ Orange County SC	0	1509.78	51.29%	25.66%
5	2025-09-10	26.66	@ New Mexico United	4	1484.66	36.74%	Detroit City FC	0	1531.07	35.27%	27.99%
6	2025-06-14	26.29	Orange County SC	3	1452.70	24.39%	@ El Paso Locomotive	0	1497.06	49.41%	26.20%
7	2025-05-17	25.97	@ Sacramento Republic	5	1528.15	47.02%	Las Vegas Lights FC	0	1501.51	26.20%	26.78%
8	2025-06-20	24.69	@ Hartford Athletic	3	1432.61	27.37%	Loudoun United	0	1551.59	45.55%	27.09%
9	2025-09-13	22.84	Hartford Athletic	4	1524.38	43.77%	@ Monterey Bay FC	0	1418.19	28.83%	27.39%
10	2025-04-19	22.38	FC Tulsa	4	1467.68	23.95%	@ Las Vegas Lights FC	1	1516.59	50.02%	26.03%
11	2025-05-03	22.13	@ El Paso Locomotive	3	1456.22	32.70%	New Mexico United	0	1531.55	39.42%	27.88%
12	2025-05-17	21.97	New Mexico United	3	1500.56	33.07%	@ Orange County SC	0	1470.11	39.03%	27.91%
13	2025-10-25	21.30	@ Oakland Roots	3	1409.55	34.59%	Lexington SC	0	1471.06	37.44%	27.98%
14	2025-07-19	21.20	@ Orange County SC	4	1473.03	46.78%	Las Vegas Lights FC	0	1448.10	26.38%	26.83%
15	2025-05-17	20.83	Rhode Island FC	3	1524.23	35.71%	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	0	1474.72	36.29%	28.00%
16	2025-07-19	19.81	Oakland Roots	2	1419.77	20.26%	@ Loudoun United	0	1511.09	55.53%	24.21%
17	2025-09-03	19.52	Indy Eleven	2	1455.58	20.93%	@ Hartford Athletic	0	1538.51	54.46%	24.60%
18	2025-09-17	19.27	Tampa Bay Rowdies	4	1460.67	31.14%	@ Birmingham Legion	1	1445.01	41.13%	27.73%
19	2025-09-13	18.53	San Antonio FC	5	1470.58	26.04%	@ Loudoun United	2	1498.77	47.23%	26.74%
20	2025-08-09	18.29	Hartford Athletic	4	1495.71	33.71%	@ Birmingham Legion	1	1460.52	38.35%	27.94%
21	2025-10-10	18.17	Phoenix Rising	2	1480.48	24.21%	@ North Carolina FC	0	1526.68	49.66%	26.13%
22	2025-04-05	18.14	Rhode Island FC	3	1511.62	42.20%	@ Oakland Roots	0	1416.68	30.19%	27.61%
23	2025-05-24	17.73	New Mexico United	3	1522.52	43.17%	@ Oakland Roots	0	1420.65	29.35%	27.48%
24	2025-10-04	17.72	@ Tampa Bay Rowdies	4	1480.43	53.25%	Monterey Bay FC	0	1406.94	21.72%	25.03%
25	2025-08-23	17.62	@ Phoenix Rising	4	1472.91	35.57%	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	1	1527.44	36.44%	27.99%