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2026-27 Championship Season

0 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Arbroath

0.00 points above expected

0 points · 0.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Arbroath

0.00 points below expected

0 points · 0.00 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Arbroath 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
2 Ayr United 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
3 Dunfermline Athletic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
4 Greenock Morton 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
5 Inverness CT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
6 Livingston 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
7 Partick Thistle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
8 Queens Park 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
9 Raith Rovers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
10 Stenhousemuir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

No game-level data.

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

No game-level data.
No game-level data.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partick Thistle 1523 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stenhousemuir 1517 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inverness CT 1472 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dunfermline Athletic 1466 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Livingston 1425 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Raith Rovers 1420 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Arbroath 1388 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ayr United 1369 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Queens Park 1345 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Greenock Morton 1339 0 0.00 +0.00 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored — —
Allowed — —
Differential — —

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

No data available.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 0 0.00 +0.00
2 Ayr United 0 0.00 +0.00
3 Dunfermline Athletic 0 0.00 +0.00
4 Greenock Morton 0 0.00 +0.00
5 Inverness CT 0 0.00 +0.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 0 0.00 +0.00
2 Ayr United 0 0.00 +0.00
3 Dunfermline Athletic 0 0.00 +0.00
4 Greenock Morton 0 0.00 +0.00
5 Inverness CT 0 0.00 +0.00

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Arbroath9.71%10.25%10.38%10.47%10.05%9.81%9.65%10.11%9.38%10.19%
Ayr United10.51%9.88%9.93%9.66%9.73%10.00%10.25%10.23%10.50%9.31%
Dunfermline Athletic9.05%10.10%10.24%10.66%10.34%10.13%10.30%9.43%10.07%9.68%
Greenock Morton10.07%10.40%9.76%9.79%10.18%10.15%9.90%9.81%10.26%9.68%
Inverness CT9.71%9.57%10.12%9.99%10.54%9.73%10.50%9.81%10.19%9.84%
Livingston10.74%9.95%9.55%10.04%9.61%9.67%9.95%10.22%9.97%10.30%
Partick Thistle10.35%10.46%9.91%9.74%9.76%9.86%10.01%10.03%9.56%10.32%
Queens Park9.77%9.82%10.39%9.63%9.63%10.14%10.15%9.71%10.12%10.64%
Raith Rovers10.18%9.49%10.36%9.87%9.96%10.13%9.89%9.91%10.16%10.05%
Stenhousemuir9.91%10.08%9.36%10.15%10.20%10.38%9.40%10.74%9.79%9.99%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No data available.

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Season metrics are available for completed seasons.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Ayr United 10.51% 29.47% 50.71% 9.31%
Livingston 10.74% 29.54% 49.42% 10.30%
Greenock Morton 10.07% 29.95% 50.30% 9.68%
Raith Rovers 10.18% 29.72% 50.05% 10.05%
Partick Thistle 10.35% 30.11% 49.22% 10.32%
Stenhousemuir 9.91% 29.59% 50.51% 9.99%
Inverness CT 9.71% 29.68% 50.77% 9.84%
Arbroath 9.71% 31.10% 49.00% 10.19%
Dunfermline Athletic 9.05% 31.00% 50.27% 9.68%
Queens Park 9.77% 29.84% 49.75% 10.64%

No Game Data

Game logs will appear here once regular-season games are loaded.