1939 Primeira Divisão Season

56 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Porto

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Porto

7.19 points above expected

23 points · 15.81 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Casa Pia

5.95 points below expected

2 points · 7.95 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Porto	14	10	3	1	23	57	20	+37	15.8	+7.19
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	14	10	2	2	22	44	17	+27	17.1	+4.89
3	Benfica	14	9	3	2	21	44	24	+20	15.6	+5.37
4	Os Belenenses (1st)	14	6	1	7	13	38	29	+9	15.3	-2.31
5	Academica de Coimbra	14	4	3	7	11	27	39	-12	12.8	-1.85
6	Barreirense	14	4	2	8	10	21	27	-6	13.8	-3.79
7	Academico do Porto	14	5	0	9	10	30	61	-31	13.6	-3.55
8	Casa Pia	14	1	0	13	2	12	56	-44	8.0	-5.95

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1476	22	17.11	+4.89	95.0%	9	11	15	17	19	22	24
Porto	1449	23	15.81	+7.19	100.0%	8	10	13	16	18	20	22
Benfica	1431	21	15.63	+5.37	97.0%	7	10	13	16	18	21	24
Os Belenenses (1st)	1395	13	15.31	-2.31	32.0%	6	10	13	16	17	21	23
Barreirense	1365	10	13.79	-3.79	15.0%	6	9	11	14	16	19	24
Academica de Coimbra	1333	11	12.85	-1.85	36.0%	5	8	11	13	15	18	20
Academico do Porto	1309	10	13.55	-3.55	14.0%	5	9	11	13	15	19	22
Casa Pia	1191	2	7.95	-5.95	4.0%	1	3	5	8	10	13	18

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	ADP	BAR	BEN	CP	OB(	POR	SCDP
Academica de Coimbra	—	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.59	0-1-1 2.29	2-0-0 3.78	0-1-1 2.39	0-0-2 2.39	0-1-1 2.04
Academico do Porto	1-0-1 2.96	—	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 2.39	2-0-0 3.82	1-0-1 2.37	0-0-2 2.27	0-0-2 2.11
Barreirense	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 2.95	—	0-1-1 2.47	1-0-1 4.01	1-0-1 2.65	0-1-1 2.53	0-0-2 2.19
Benfica	1-1-0 3.44	2-0-0 3.34	1-1-0 3.26	—	2-0-0 4.32	1-0-1 3.04	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.69
Casa Pia	0-0-2 1.95	0-0-2 1.92	1-0-1 1.73	0-0-2 1.43	—	0-0-2 1.57	0-0-2 1.44	0-0-2 1.38
Os Belenenses (1st)	1-1-0 3.34	1-0-1 3.36	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 2.69	2-0-0 4.17	—	0-0-2 2.82	0-0-2 2.49
Porto	2-0-0 3.34	2-0-0 3.46	1-1-0 3.19	0-1-1 2.94	2-0-0 4.31	2-0-0 2.91	—	1-1-0 2.57
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1-1-0 3.69	2-0-0 3.62	2-0-0 3.55	1-0-1 3.03	2-0-0 4.38	2-0-0 3.24	0-1-1 3.16	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	0.89%	2.68%	2.68%	16.96%
1	3.57%	1.79%	5.36%	6.25%	1.79%	5.36%	24.11%
2	3.57%	5.36%	1.79%	3.57%	0.89%	4.46%	19.64%
3	0.89%	6.25%	3.57%	3.57%	1.79%	—	16.07%
4	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	1.79%	1.79%	0.89%	9.82%
5+	2.68%	5.36%	4.46%	—	0.89%	—	13.39%
Total	16.96%	24.11%	19.64%	16.07%	9.82%	13.39%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.44
Mean allowed	2.44
StdDev scored	2.28
StdDev allowed	2.28
Mean total goals/game	4.88
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.211
Sample size (games)	56

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
1	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
2	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
3	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
4	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.93
Mean allowed	2.79
StdDev scored	1.44
StdDev allowed	2.29
Mean total goals/game	4.71
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.122
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%
1	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
2	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%	21.43%
3	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
4	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
5+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	14.29%	50.00%	100%

Academico do Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.14
Mean allowed	4.36
StdDev scored	1.70
StdDev allowed	3.15
Mean total goals/game	6.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.411
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
1	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
2	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
3	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Barreirense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.93
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.54
Mean total goals/game	3.43
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.287
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
4	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
5+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.14
Mean allowed	1.71
StdDev scored	2.41
StdDev allowed	1.49
Mean total goals/game	4.86
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.034
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
1	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	21.43%	42.86%
2	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	100%

Casa Pia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.86
Mean allowed	4.00
StdDev scored	0.77
StdDev allowed	3.04
Mean total goals/game	4.86
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.066
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
1	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
2	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
3	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.71
Mean allowed	2.07
StdDev scored	2.76
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	4.79
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.162
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
2	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
3	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
4	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
5+	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
Total	21.43%	50.00%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.07
Mean allowed	1.43
StdDev scored	3.34
StdDev allowed	1.34
Mean total goals/game	5.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.213
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
2	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
3	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
4	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
5+	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	28.57%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.14
Mean allowed	1.21
StdDev scored	1.83
StdDev allowed	1.12
Mean total goals/game	4.36
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.021
Games played	14

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Porto	23	15.8	+7.19
2	Benfica	21	15.6	+5.37
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	22	17.1	+4.89
4	Academica de Coimbra	11	12.8	-1.85
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	13	15.3	-2.31

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Casa Pia	2	8.0	-5.95
2	Barreirense	10	13.8	-3.79
3	Academico do Porto	10	13.6	-3.55
4	Os Belenenses (1st)	13	15.3	-2.31
5	Academica de Coimbra	11	12.8	-1.85

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Porto	6	Jan 8 – Feb 26	1 in 64
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	5	Jan 22 – Mar 5	1 in 29
3	Benfica	4	Mar 26 – Apr 16	1 in 9
4	Barreirense	2	Mar 12 – Mar 19	1 in 7
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	Jan 8 – Jan 15	1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Casa Pia	9	Jan 8 – Mar 19	1 in 84
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	3	Feb 26 – Mar 12	1 in 26
3	Academico do Porto	4	Jan 22 – Feb 26	1 in 12
4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	Jan 8 – Jan 15	1 in 7
5	Academica de Coimbra	3	Jan 8 – Jan 22	1 in 6

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	12	Jan 22 – Apr 23	1 in 117
2	Porto	7	Mar 12 – Apr 23	1 in 30
3	Benfica	5	Mar 26 – Apr 23	1 in 10
4	Academica de Coimbra	3	Feb 26 – Mar 12	1 in 4
5	Barreirense	2	Mar 12 – Mar 19	1 in 4

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Casa Pia	9	Jan 8 – Mar 19	1 in 15
2	Academica de Coimbra	6	Mar 12 – Apr 16	1 in 14
3	Barreirense	4	Jan 29 – Mar 5	1 in 8
4	Os Belenenses (1st)	4	Mar 26 – Apr 16	1 in 6
5	Academico do Porto	4	Jan 22 – Feb 26	1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Porto	22.00%	26.00%	16.00%	11.00%	6.00%	12.00%	6.00%	1.00%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	31.00%	20.00%	19.00%	10.00%	9.00%	6.00%	5.00%	—
Benfica	18.00%	17.00%	22.00%	14.00%	14.00%	5.00%	6.00%	4.00%
Os Belenenses (1st)	11.00%	21.00%	13.00%	20.00%	14.00%	11.00%	5.00%	5.00%
Academica de Coimbra	4.00%	3.00%	11.00%	11.00%	18.00%	19.00%	26.00%	8.00%
Barreirense	7.00%	9.00%	12.00%	12.00%	18.00%	19.00%	20.00%	3.00%
Academico do Porto	7.00%	3.00%	7.00%	20.00%	19.00%	20.00%	19.00%	5.00%
Casa Pia	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	2.00%	8.00%	13.00%	74.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Academica de Coimbra	100%
Academico do Porto	100%
Barreirense	100%
Benfica	100%
Casa Pia	100%
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%
Porto	100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1939-01-08	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1381	1397	55.2%	13.7%	31.1%	-6.7	0
1939-01-08	@ Barreirense	W 2-0	1397	1381	31.1%	13.7%	55.2%	+6.7	3
1939-01-08	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-0	1411	1346	64.6%	13.2%	22.2%	+5.6	3
1939-01-08	@ Benfica	L 0-4	1346	1411	22.2%	13.2%	64.6%	-5.6	0
1939-01-08	Academico do Porto	L 1-3	1230	1357	39.9%	13.7%	46.4%	-4.3	0
1939-01-08	@ Casa Pia	W 3-1	1357	1230	46.4%	13.7%	39.9%	+4.3	3
1939-01-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1392	1434	51.7%	13.8%	34.5%	+2.2	3
1939-01-08	@ Porto	L 1-2	1434	1392	34.5%	13.8%	51.7%	-2.2	0
1939-01-15	Porto	L 1-2	1340	1395	50.0%	13.8%	36.2%	-3.1	0
1939-01-15	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1395	1340	36.2%	13.8%	50.0%	+3.1	6
1939-01-15	Barreirense	W 3-2	1362	1375	55.5%	13.7%	30.8%	+1.9	6
1939-01-15	@ Academico do Porto	L 2-3	1375	1362	30.8%	13.7%	55.5%	-1.9	0
1939-01-15	Casa Pia	W 7-1	1403	1226	74.7%	12.0%	13.2%	+4.1	6
1939-01-15	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-7	1226	1403	13.2%	12.0%	74.7%	-4.1	0
1939-01-15	Benfica	L 0-1	1432	1416	59.0%	13.6%	27.4%	-3.8	0
1939-01-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1416	1432	27.4%	13.6%	59.0%	+3.8	6
1939-01-22	Benfica	L 3-4	1364	1420	49.7%	13.8%	36.5%	-2.8	6
1939-01-22	@ Academico do Porto	W 4-3	1420	1364	36.5%	13.8%	49.7%	+2.8	9
1939-01-22	Casa Pia	W 3-1	1373	1222	72.6%	12.4%	15.0%	+1.8	3
1939-01-22	@ Barreirense	L 1-3	1222	1373	15.0%	12.4%	72.6%	-1.7	0
1939-01-22	Porto	L 1-3	1407	1398	58.3%	13.6%	28.1%	-6.1	6
1939-01-22	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1398	1407	28.1%	13.6%	58.3%	+6.1	9
1939-01-22	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1428	1337	67.2%	13.0%	19.7%	+2.3	3
1939-01-22	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1337	1428	19.7%	13.0%	67.2%	-2.3	0
1939-01-29	Academico do Porto	W 5-4	1335	1361	53.8%	13.8%	32.5%	+1.9	3
1939-01-29	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 4-5	1361	1335	32.5%	13.8%	53.8%	-1.9	6
1939-01-29	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 3-4	1423	1401	59.7%	13.6%	26.8%	-3.3	9
1939-01-29	@ Benfica	W 4-3	1401	1423	26.8%	13.6%	59.7%	+3.3	9
1939-01-29	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1220	1430	29.1%	13.2%	57.7%	-2.9	0
1939-01-29	@ Casa Pia	W 4-2	1430	1220	57.7%	13.2%	29.1%	+2.9	6
1939-01-29	Barreirense	W 6-1	1404	1375	60.6%	13.5%	25.9%	+6.6	12
1939-01-29	@ Porto	L 1-6	1375	1404	25.9%	13.5%	60.6%	-6.6	3
1939-02-05	Benfica	D 1-1	1368	1419	50.4%	13.8%	35.8%	-0.2	4
1939-02-05	@ Barreirense	D 1-1	1419	1368	35.8%	13.8%	50.4%	+0.2	10
1939-02-05	Academica de Coimbra	W 8-1	1405	1337	64.9%	13.2%	21.9%	+7.7	12
1939-02-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-8	1337	1405	21.9%	13.2%	64.9%	-7.7	3
1939-02-05	Casa Pia	W 10-0	1410	1217	75.9%	11.8%	12.3%	+7.5	15
1939-02-05	@ Porto	L 0-10	1217	1410	12.3%	11.8%	75.9%	-7.5	0
1939-02-05	Academico do Porto	W 7-0	1433	1359	65.6%	13.2%	21.3%	+9.1	9
1939-02-05	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-7	1359	1433	21.3%	13.2%	65.6%	-9.1	6
1939-02-26	Barreirense	W 3-1	1329	1368	52.1%	13.8%	34.1%	+3.8	6
1939-02-26	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-3	1368	1329	34.1%	13.8%	52.1%	-3.8	4
1939-02-26	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1412	1442	53.2%	13.8%	33.0%	-6.5	12
1939-02-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-0	1442	1412	33.0%	13.8%	53.2%	+6.5	12
1939-02-26	Benfica	L 0-1	1210	1420	29.2%	13.2%	57.6%	-2.0	0
1939-02-26	@ Casa Pia	W 1-0	1420	1210	57.6%	13.2%	29.2%	+2.0	13
1939-02-26	Academico do Porto	W 4-0	1418	1350	64.9%	13.2%	21.9%	+5.5	18
1939-02-26	@ Porto	L 0-4	1350	1418	21.9%	13.2%	64.9%	-5.5	6
1939-03-05	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1344	1406	49.0%	13.8%	37.2%	+4.1	9
1939-03-05	@ Academico do Porto	L 1-3	1406	1344	37.2%	13.8%	49.0%	-4.1	12
1939-03-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1364	1449	45.8%	13.8%	40.4%	-8.2	4
1939-03-05	@ Barreirense	W 3-0	1449	1364	40.4%	13.8%	45.8%	+8.2	15
1939-03-05	Porto	W 4-1	1422	1423	56.9%	13.7%	29.4%	+4.7	16
1939-03-05	@ Benfica	L 1-4	1423	1422	29.4%	13.7%	56.9%	-4.7	18
1939-03-05	Academica de Coimbra	L 0-2	1208	1333	40.2%	13.7%	46.1%	-5.0	0
1939-03-05	@ Casa Pia	W 2-0	1333	1208	46.1%	13.7%	40.2%	+5.0	9
1939-03-12	Benfica	D 3-3	1338	1426	45.2%	13.8%	40.9%	-0.0	10
1939-03-12	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 3-3	1426	1338	40.9%	13.8%	45.2%	+0.0	17
1939-03-12	Casa Pia	W 1-0	1348	1203	72.2%	12.4%	15.4%	+1.1	12
1939-03-12	@ Academico do Porto	L 0-1	1203	1348	15.4%	12.4%	72.2%	-1.1	0
1939-03-12	Barreirense	L 1-2	1402	1356	62.5%	13.4%	24.1%	-3.8	12
1939-03-12	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1356	1402	24.1%	13.4%	62.5%	+3.8	7
1939-03-12	Porto	D 4-4	1457	1419	61.7%	13.5%	24.9%	-0.3	16
1939-03-12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 4-4	1419	1457	24.9%	13.5%	61.7%	+0.3	19
1939-03-19	Academico do Porto	W 6-0	1360	1349	58.3%	13.6%	28.1%	+10.2	10
1939-03-19	@ Barreirense	L 0-6	1349	1360	28.1%	13.6%	58.3%	-10.2	12
1939-03-19	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1426	1457	53.2%	13.8%	33.0%	-7.9	17
1939-03-19	@ Benfica	W 4-1	1457	1426	33.0%	13.8%	53.2%	+7.9	19
1939-03-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1202	1398	30.8%	13.3%	55.9%	-1.9	0
1939-03-19	@ Casa Pia	W 3-2	1398	1202	55.9%	13.3%	30.8%	+1.9	15
1939-03-19	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1419	1338	66.3%	13.1%	20.6%	+2.4	22
1939-03-19	@ Porto	L 1-3	1338	1419	20.6%	13.1%	66.3%	-2.4	10
1939-03-26	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1335	1465	39.5%	13.7%	46.8%	+0.1	11
1939-03-26	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1465	1335	46.8%	13.7%	39.5%	-0.1	20
1939-03-26	Academico do Porto	W 5-2	1418	1339	66.0%	13.1%	20.8%	+3.0	20
1939-03-26	@ Benfica	L 2-5	1339	1418	20.8%	13.1%	66.0%	-3.0	12
1939-03-26	Barreirense	W 2-1	1200	1370	34.1%	13.5%	52.4%	+3.2	3
1939-03-26	@ Casa Pia	L 1-2	1370	1200	52.4%	13.5%	34.1%	-3.2	10
1939-03-26	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 5-2	1421	1400	59.7%	13.6%	26.8%	+3.7	25
1939-03-26	@ Porto	L 2-5	1400	1421	26.8%	13.6%	59.7%	-3.7	15
1939-04-02	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1336	1335	57.2%	13.7%	29.1%	+5.1	15
1939-04-02	@ Academico do Porto	L 2-6	1335	1336	29.1%	13.7%	57.2%	-5.1	11
1939-04-02	Porto	D 0-0	1367	1425	49.4%	13.8%	36.8%	-0.2	11
1939-04-02	@ Barreirense	D 0-0	1425	1367	36.8%	13.8%	49.4%	+0.2	26
1939-04-02	Benfica	L 2-3	1396	1421	53.9%	13.8%	32.4%	-3.1	15
1939-04-02	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-2	1421	1396	32.4%	13.8%	53.9%	+3.1	23
1939-04-02	Casa Pia	W 5-1	1465	1203	80.5%	10.8%	8.8%	+1.8	23
1939-04-02	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1203	1465	8.8%	10.8%	80.5%	-1.8	3
1939-04-09	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1330	1393	48.9%	13.8%	37.3%	-0.2	12
1939-04-09	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 0-0	1393	1330	37.3%	13.8%	48.9%	+0.2	16
1939-04-09	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1341	1467	40.1%	13.7%	46.2%	-5.3	15
1939-04-09	@ Academico do Porto	W 5-2	1467	1341	46.2%	13.7%	40.1%	+5.4	26
1939-04-09	Barreirense	W 1-0	1425	1366	63.8%	13.3%	22.9%	+1.6	26
1939-04-09	@ Benfica	L 0-1	1366	1425	22.9%	13.3%	63.8%	-1.6	11
1939-04-09	Porto	L 1-2	1201	1425	27.5%	13.1%	59.4%	-1.8	3
1939-04-09	@ Casa Pia	W 2-1	1425	1201	59.4%	13.1%	27.5%	+1.8	29
1939-04-16	Porto	L 1-12	1336	1427	44.9%	13.8%	41.3%	-22.6	15
1939-04-16	@ Academico do Porto	W 12-1	1427	1336	41.3%	13.8%	44.9%	+22.6	32
1939-04-16	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-2	1365	1330	61.2%	13.5%	25.3%	+1.6	14
1939-04-16	@ Barreirense	L 2-3	1330	1365	25.3%	13.5%	61.2%	-1.6	12
1939-04-16	Casa Pia	W 10-1	1426	1199	78.3%	11.3%	10.4%	+4.7	29
1939-04-16	@ Benfica	L 1-10	1199	1426	10.4%	11.3%	78.3%	-4.7	3
1939-04-16	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-0	1472	1393	66.0%	13.1%	20.9%	+2.8	29
1939-04-16	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1393	1472	20.9%	13.1%	66.0%	-2.8	16
1939-04-23	Casa Pia	W 4-0	1328	1195	71.2%	12.6%	16.2%	+4.1	15
1939-04-23	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-4	1195	1328	16.2%	12.6%	71.2%	-4.1	3
1939-04-23	Academico do Porto	W 7-2	1390	1313	65.8%	13.2%	21.0%	+4.5	19
1939-04-23	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-7	1313	1390	21.0%	13.2%	65.8%	-4.6	15
1939-04-23	Benfica	D 3-3	1450	1431	59.4%	13.6%	27.1%	-0.3	33
1939-04-23	@ Porto	D 3-3	1431	1450	27.1%	13.6%	59.4%	+0.3	30
1939-04-23	Barreirense	W 2-1	1475	1366	68.9%	12.8%	18.3%	+1.2	32
1939-04-23	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1366	1475	18.3%	12.8%	68.9%	-1.2	14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1939-03-12	24.10%	Barreirense	1356	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1402	1
2	1939-01-29	26.75%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1401	4	@ Benfica	1423	3
3	1939-01-15	27.41%	Benfica	1416	1	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1432	0
4	1939-01-22	28.11%	Porto	1398	3	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1407	1
5	1939-01-08	31.10%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1397	2	@ Barreirense	1381	0
6	1939-04-02	32.37%	Benfica	1421	3	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1396	2
7	1939-02-26	32.99%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1442	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1412	0
8	1939-03-19	33.03%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1457	4	@ Benfica	1426	1
9	1939-03-26	34.09%	@ Casa Pia	1200	2	Barreirense	1370	1
10	1939-01-15	36.22%	Porto	1395	2	@ Academica de Coimbra	1340	1
11	1939-01-22	36.46%	Benfica	1420	4	@ Academico do Porto	1364	3
12	1939-03-05	40.43%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1449	3	@ Barreirense	1364	0
13	1939-04-16	41.30%	Porto	1427	12	@ Academico do Porto	1336	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1939-04-16	22.60	Porto	12	1427	41.30%	@ Academico do Porto	1	1336	44.90%
2	1939-03-19	10.19	@ Barreirense	6	1360	58.34%	Academico do Porto	0	1349	28.05%
3	1939-02-05	9.11	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	7	1433	65.56%	Academico do Porto	0	1359	21.27%
4	1939-03-05	8.22	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1449	40.43%	@ Barreirense	0	1364	45.77%
5	1939-03-19	7.94	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1457	33.03%	@ Benfica	1	1426	53.21%
6	1939-02-05	7.71	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	8	1405	64.89%	Academica de Coimbra	1	1337	21.89%
7	1939-02-05	7.45	@ Porto	10	1410	75.93%	Casa Pia	0	1217	12.27%
8	1939-01-08	6.71	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	1397	31.10%	@ Barreirense	0	1381	55.19%
9	1939-01-29	6.61	@ Porto	6	1404	60.60%	Barreirense	1	1375	25.90%
10	1939-02-26	6.49	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	1442	32.99%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	0	1412	53.25%
11	1939-01-22	6.12	Porto	3	1398	28.11%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1407	58.28%
12	1939-01-08	5.60	@ Benfica	4	1411	64.56%	Academica de Coimbra	0	1346	22.18%
13	1939-02-26	5.53	@ Porto	4	1418	64.90%	Academico do Porto	0	1350	21.88%
14	1939-04-09	5.35	Sporting Clube de Portugal	5	1467	46.21%	@ Academico do Porto	2	1341	40.08%
15	1939-04-02	5.10	@ Academico do Porto	6	1336	57.20%	Academica de Coimbra	2	1335	29.14%
16	1939-03-05	5.05	Academica de Coimbra	2	1333	46.14%	@ Casa Pia	0	1208	40.15%
17	1939-03-05	4.70	@ Benfica	4	1422	56.88%	Porto	1	1423	29.45%
18	1939-04-16	4.68	@ Benfica	10	1426	78.26%	Casa Pia	1	1199	10.43%
19	1939-04-23	4.55	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	7	1390	65.82%	Academico do Porto	2	1313	21.03%
20	1939-01-08	4.34	Academico do Porto	3	1357	46.44%	@ Casa Pia	1	1230	39.85%
21	1939-04-23	4.14	@ Academica de Coimbra	4	1328	71.19%	Casa Pia	0	1195	16.25%
22	1939-03-05	4.09	@ Academico do Porto	3	1344	49.02%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1406	37.17%
23	1939-01-15	4.08	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	7	1403	74.74%	Casa Pia	1	1226	13.24%
24	1939-02-26	3.80	@ Academica de Coimbra	3	1329	52.10%	Barreirense	1	1368	34.12%
25	1939-01-15	3.79	Benfica	1	1416	27.41%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	1432	59.01%