2019 NWSL Season

108 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

North Carolina Courage

38.32% chance to win NWSL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Washington Spirit

13.13 points above expected

34 points · 20.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Orlando Pride

8.15 points below expected

16 points · 24.15 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	North Carolina Courage Conference	15	5	4	49	.681	54	23	+31	51.80	-2.80
2	Chicago Red Stars Playoffs	14	8	2	44	.611	41	28	+13	38.05	+5.95
3	Portland Thorns Playoffs	11	6	7	40	.556	40	31	+9	42.94	-2.94
4	Seattle Reign Playoffs	10	6	8	38	.528	27	27	0	37.52	+0.48
5	Washington Spirit	9	8	7	34	.472	30	25	+5	20.87	+13.13
6	Utah Royals FC (1st)	10	10	4	34	.472	25	25	0	33.12	+0.88
7	Houston Dash	7	12	5	26	.361	21	36	-15	30.98	-4.98
8	Sky Blue FC	5	14	5	20	.278	20	34	-14	20.25	-0.25
9	Orlando Pride	4	16	4	16	.222	24	53	-29	24.15	-8.15

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Spirit	34	20.87	+13.13
2	Chicago Red Stars	44	38.05	+5.95
3	Utah Royals FC (1st)	34	33.12	+0.88
4	Seattle Reign	38	37.52	+0.48
5	Sky Blue FC	20	20.25	-0.25

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Orlando Pride	16	24.15	-8.15
2	Houston Dash	26	30.98	-4.98
3	Portland Thorns	40	42.94	-2.94
4	North Carolina Courage	49	51.80	-2.80
5	Sky Blue FC	20	20.25	-0.25

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Spirit	4	May 11 – Jun 2	1 in 680
2	Chicago Red Stars	5	Jul 14 – Aug 11	1 in 132
3	Seattle Reign	3	Jun 24 – Jul 6	1 in 32
4	Sky Blue FC	2	Jul 7 – Jul 13	1 in 30
5	North Carolina Courage	6	Aug 25 – Sep 22	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Red Stars	3	May 27 – Jun 24	1 in 47
2	Sky Blue FC	5	May 11 – Jun 23	1 in 32
3	Utah Royals FC (1st)	4	Sep 14 – Sep 29	1 in 21
4	Orlando Pride	5	Apr 28 – Jun 2	1 in 21
5	Portland Thorns	2	Sep 7 – Sep 12	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Spirit	7	May 5 – Jun 23	1 in 429
2	Seattle Reign	8	May 5 – Jul 6	1 in 28
3	Sky Blue FC	3	Aug 15 – Aug 25	1 in 16
4	Chicago Red Stars	5	Jul 14 – Aug 11	1 in 10
5	Utah Royals FC (1st)	5	Aug 8 – Sep 7	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	North Carolina Courage	4	May 5 – May 28	1 in 86
2	Houston Dash	7	May 20 – Jul 14	1 in 20
3	Seattle Reign	4	Apr 15 – May 5	1 in 14
4	Sky Blue FC	9	Apr 14 – Jun 23	1 in 13
5	Utah Royals FC (1st)	6	Jun 22 – Aug 4	1 in 9

Playoff Bracket

NHL Playoffs

Semifinals

North Carolina Courage 1

Seattle Reign 0

1 games · Oct 20–Oct 20

Chicago Red Stars 1

Portland Thorns 0

1 games · Oct 20–Oct 20

Stanley Cup Final

North Carolina Courage 1

Chicago Red Stars 0

1 games · Oct 27–Oct 27

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	Stars	Dash	Courage	Pride	Thorns	Reign	FC	(1st)	Spirit
Chicago Red Stars	—	9 (4.7 exp.)	7 (2.4 exp.)	6 (5.7 exp.)	1 (3.3 exp.)	6 (4.2 exp.)	3 (6.3 exp.)	6 (5.0 exp.)	6 (6.3 exp.)
Houston Dash	0 (3.5 exp.)	—	0 (1.8 exp.)	7 (5.1 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	2 (3.5 exp.)	6 (5.7 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	5 (5.2 exp.)
North Carolina Courage	1 (5.9 exp.)	9 (6.6 exp.)	—	9 (7.2 exp.)	4 (5.1 exp.)	6 (6.0 exp.)	7 (7.5 exp.)	7 (6.2 exp.)	6 (7.2 exp.)
Orlando Pride	3 (2.6 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0 (2.3 exp.)	2 (2.5 exp.)	7 (4.5 exp.)	0 (3.2 exp.)	3 (4.5 exp.)
Portland Thorns	7 (4.9 exp.)	9 (5.7 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	9 (6.0 exp.)	—	0 (4.7 exp.)	5 (6.6 exp.)	2 (5.3 exp.)	4 (6.7 exp.)
Seattle Reign	3 (4.0 exp.)	5 (4.7 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	5 (5.9 exp.)	9 (3.5 exp.)	—	4 (6.3 exp.)	6 (4.8 exp.)	3 (6.0 exp.)
Sky Blue FC	6 (2.1 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	1 (1.1 exp.)	1 (3.7 exp.)	2 (1.8 exp.)	4 (2.1 exp.)	—	3 (2.4 exp.)	0 (4.4 exp.)
Utah Royals FC (1st)	3 (3.3 exp.)	3 (4.7 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	9 (5.1 exp.)	5 (3.0 exp.)	3 (3.4 exp.)	6 (5.9 exp.)	—	4 (5.7 exp.)
Washington Spirit	3 (2.1 exp.)	2 (3.1 exp.)	3 (1.4 exp.)	6 (3.7 exp.)	4 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	9 (3.8 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.48%	11.57%	4.63%	4.17%	0.46%	1.39%	28.70%
1	11.57%	9.26%	10.19%	3.24%	0.46%	0.46%	35.19%
2	4.63%	10.19%	4.63%	1.39%	—	0.46%	21.30%
3	4.17%	3.24%	1.39%	—	0.93%	—	9.72%
4	0.46%	0.46%	—	0.93%	0.93%	—	2.78%
5+	1.39%	0.46%	0.46%	—	—	—	2.31%
Total	28.70%	35.19%	21.30%	9.72%	2.78%	2.31%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.31	+0.00
SD	1.23	1.23	1.79
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	20.83%
1	12.50%	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	29.17%
2	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	25.00%
4	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	20.83%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Chicago Red Stars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.71	1.17	+0.54
SD	1.30	1.13	1.89
CV	0.76	0.97	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	4.17%	33.33%
1	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	45.83%
2	—	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	20.83%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	37.50%	20.83%	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	100%

Houston Dash — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.88	1.50	-0.62
SD	0.74	1.47	1.58
CV	0.85	0.98	—
Max	2	5	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
1	12.50%	12.50%	16.67%	4.17%	—	—	45.83%
2	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	12.50%
4	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	37.50%	33.33%	25.00%	4.17%	—	—	100%

North Carolina Courage — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.96	+1.29
SD	1.75	0.91	2.10
CV	0.78	0.95	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	12.50%	8.33%	—	4.17%	41.67%
1	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	—	4.17%	29.17%
2	—	8.33%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
3	—	—	—	—	4.17%	—	4.17%
4	—	—	—	4.17%	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.17%	33.33%	25.00%	25.00%	4.17%	8.33%	100%

Orlando Pride — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.21	-1.21
SD	1.10	1.41	1.67
CV	1.10	0.64	—
Max	4	6	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	29.17%
1	8.33%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
2	4.17%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	20.83%
3	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	8.33%
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	33.33%	37.50%	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	100%

Portland Thorns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.29	+0.38
SD	1.49	1.49	2.12
CV	0.90	1.15	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	25.00%
1	16.67%	20.83%	—	4.17%	—	—	41.67%
2	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.17%	45.83%	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Seattle Reign — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	1.12	+0.00
SD	0.85	1.08	1.53
CV	0.76	0.96	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	25.00%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
1	8.33%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	50.00%	20.83%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Sky Blue FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.42	-0.58
SD	0.82	0.93	1.14
CV	0.98	0.66	—
Max	2	3	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	29.17%
1	20.83%	4.17%	20.83%	—	—	—	45.83%
2	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	16.67%	37.50%	4.17%	—	—	100%

Utah Royals FC (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.04	1.04	+0.00
SD	0.91	1.00	1.53
CV	0.87	0.96	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	20.83%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
1	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
2	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	29.17%	16.67%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Washington Spirit — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.04	+0.21
SD	1.11	1.16	1.35
CV	0.89	1.11	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.72	+8.2
Allowed	0.64	-9.5
Differential	0.92	+6.0

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
North Carolina Courage	1715	49	51.80	-2.80	33.65%	26	42	48	52	56	61	72
Portland Thorns	1592	40	42.94	-2.94	34.29%	17	33	39	43	47	53	70
Chicago Red Stars	1567	44	38.05	+5.95	85.24%	13	28	34	38	42	48	64
Seattle Reign	1547	38	37.52	+0.48	56.27%	12	27	33	38	42	48	64
Utah Royals FC (1st)	1496	34	33.12	+0.88	59.22%	7	23	29	33	37	43	62
Houston Dash	1455	26	30.98	-4.98	23.30%	7	21	27	31	35	41	56
Washington Spirit	1396	34	20.87	+13.13	98.91%	0	12	17	21	25	30	48
Orlando Pride	1377	16	24.15	-8.15	9.17%	3	15	20	24	28	34	51
Sky Blue FC	1356	20	20.25	-0.25	53.12%	1	11	16	20	24	30	45

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
North Carolina Courage	77.42%	16.19%	4.54%	1.36%	0.40%	0.09%	<0.01%	-	<0.01%
Portland Thorns	14.06%	40.47%	23.08%	12.68%	6.18%	2.65%	0.69%	0.15%	0.04%
Chicago Red Stars	3.91%	17.75%	25.85%	23.33%	16.11%	8.70%	3.20%	0.93%	0.21%
Seattle Reign	3.32%	16.23%	24.51%	23.66%	17.28%	9.90%	3.64%	1.19%	0.27%
Utah Royals FC (1st)	0.85%	5.76%	12.31%	19.34%	24.97%	20.66%	10.46%	4.31%	1.33%
Houston Dash	0.42%	3.20%	7.99%	14.49%	21.86%	26.86%	15.20%	7.24%	2.74%
Orlando Pride	0.02%	0.32%	1.17%	3.16%	7.45%	15.64%	29.23%	25.18%	17.84%
Washington Spirit	<0.01%	0.06%	0.32%	1.14%	3.15%	8.34%	19.66%	30.69%	36.65%
Sky Blue FC	-	0.04%	0.24%	0.83%	2.60%	7.16%	17.91%	30.32%	40.92%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
North Carolina Courage	77.42%	16.19%	4.54%	1.36%	0.50%
Portland Thorns	14.06%	40.47%	23.08%	12.68%	9.71%
Chicago Red Stars	3.91%	17.75%	25.85%	23.33%	29.16%
Seattle Reign	3.32%	16.23%	24.51%	23.66%	32.28%
Utah Royals FC (1st)	0.85%	5.76%	12.31%	19.34%	61.74%
Houston Dash	0.42%	3.20%	7.99%	14.49%	73.90%
Orlando Pride	0.02%	0.32%	1.17%	3.16%	95.33%
Washington Spirit	<0.01%	0.06%	0.32%	1.14%	98.49%
Sky Blue FC	-	0.04%	0.24%	0.83%	98.90%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+8.33%

Clear Edge

43.52%21.30%35.19%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.

243 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.19 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.12+2

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 4.75 · As Expected: 4.75 to 6.53 · Elevated: 6.53 to 8.9 · High Variance: 8.9 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 0.83 · Close: 0.83 to 1.12 · Off Target: 1.12 to 1.46 · Well Off Target: 1.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 9 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 9 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.45 · As Expected: 0.45 to 1.08 · Several Outliers: 1.08 to 1.98 · Many Outliers: 1.98 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.54 · As Expected: 0.54 to 0.9 · More Than Expected: 0.9 to 1.43 · Far More Than Expected: 1.43 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.93 points

As Expected

05.9415

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

00.972

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 94.44%

98.91%

Washington Spirit

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected

9.17%

Orlando Pride

05.56%50

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 9

As Expected

00.99

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 4

Fewer Than Expected

00.74

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.49

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

73%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

No Contest

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

69%

Nail-Biters

0%60%100%

Blowouts

Expected

15%

Occasional

0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.61

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.41

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.05

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.84

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Chalk Held

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Favorites Held

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.32 · Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.86

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.78

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.097

Within Noise

00.1600.4

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals
North Carolina Courage	49.75%	49.75%	38.32%
Portland Thorns	45.15%	45.15%	24.72%
Chicago Red Stars	35.42%	35.42%	14.80%
Seattle Reign	33.86%	33.86%	13.00%
Utah Royals FC (1st)	19.13%	19.13%	5.51%
Houston Dash	13.05%	13.05%	3.09%
Orlando Pride	2.33%	2.33%	0.36%
Washington Spirit	0.76%	0.76%	0.13%
Sky Blue FC	0.55%	0.55%	0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign	Sky Blue FC	Utah Royals FC (1st)	Washington Spirit
Chicago Red Stars		67.1%0.40%	27.8%8.80%	76.8%0.04%	45.1%2.86%	52.3%1.94%	63.2%<0.01%	61.9%0.72%	70.5%0.02%
Houston Dash	32.9%0.40%		14.9%1.53%	33.3%<0.01%	28.9%0.66%	35.1%0.36%	50.0%<0.01%	44.4%0.12%	66.7%<0.01%
North Carolina Courage	72.2%8.80%	85.1%1.53%		88.4%0.16%	69.0%17.39%	74.7%7.52%	92.5%0.03%	80.6%2.84%	91.8%0.05%
Orlando Pride	23.2%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	11.6%0.16%		24.4%0.10%	23.5%0.04%		20.7%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Portland Thorns	54.9%2.86%	71.1%0.66%	31.0%17.39%	75.6%0.10%		57.2%2.49%	86.1%0.02%	64.4%1.18%	79.0%0.03%
Seattle Reign	47.7%1.94%	64.9%0.36%	25.3%7.52%	76.5%0.04%	42.8%2.49%		72.7%0.01%	57.8%0.62%	61.8%0.02%
Sky Blue FC	36.8%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	7.5%0.03%		13.9%0.02%	27.3%0.01%		25.0%<0.01%
Utah Royals FC (1st)	38.1%0.72%	55.6%0.12%	19.4%2.84%	79.3%0.01%	35.6%1.18%	42.2%0.62%	75.0%<0.01%		80.0%<0.01%
Washington Spirit	29.5%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	8.2%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	21.0%0.03%	38.2%0.02%		20.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign	Sky Blue FC	Utah Royals FC (1st)	Washington Spirit
Chicago Red Stars		67.4%1.30%	26.6%12.35%	79.3%0.20%	44.8%13.97%	52.9%5.33%	80.9%0.03%	61.1%2.19%	78.4%0.05%
Houston Dash	32.6%1.30%		15.1%6.45%	63.5%0.03%	28.8%3.70%	36.5%1.17%	53.8%<0.01%	43.4%0.40%	63.6%<0.01%
North Carolina Courage	73.4%12.35%	84.9%6.45%		89.5%1.35%	69.8%7.82%	75.8%12.19%	90.3%0.35%	81.4%8.77%	87.7%0.47%
Orlando Pride	20.7%0.20%	36.5%0.03%	10.5%1.35%		20.1%0.55%	27.6%0.16%	0.0%<0.01%	33.7%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%
Portland Thorns	55.2%13.97%	71.2%3.70%	30.2%7.82%	79.9%0.55%		57.6%13.03%	81.3%0.12%	66.5%5.78%	73.7%0.18%
Seattle Reign	47.1%5.33%	63.5%1.17%	24.2%12.19%	72.4%0.16%	42.4%13.03%		69.1%0.03%	57.4%1.91%	77.6%0.04%
Sky Blue FC	19.1%0.03%	46.2%<0.01%	9.7%0.35%	100.0%<0.01%	18.7%0.12%	30.9%0.03%		11.8%<0.01%
Utah Royals FC (1st)	38.9%2.19%	56.6%0.40%	18.6%8.77%	66.3%0.05%	33.5%5.78%	42.6%1.91%	88.2%<0.01%		66.7%0.01%
Washington Spirit	21.6%0.05%	36.4%<0.01%	12.3%0.47%	0.0%<0.01%	26.3%0.18%	22.4%0.04%		33.3%0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals	Actual Outcome
North Carolina Courage	50.00%	37.95%	Won Semifinals
Chicago Red Stars	50.00%	25.62%	Won Semifinals
Portland Thorns	50.00%	24.38%	Eliminated in Semifinals
Seattle Reign	50.00%	12.05%	Eliminated in Semifinals

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	North Carolina Courage	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign
Chicago Red Stars		26.5%19.43%		57.1%6.19%
North Carolina Courage	73.5%19.43%		70.1%18.52%
Portland Thorns		29.9%18.52%		60.4%5.87%
Seattle Reign	42.9%6.19%		39.6%5.87%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	North Carolina Courage	Portland Thorns	Seattle Reign
Chicago Red Stars			51.2%50.00%
North Carolina Courage				75.9%50.00%
Portland Thorns	48.8%50.00%
Seattle Reign		24.1%50.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

North Carolina Courage 37.95% chance to win

Finals

vs. Chicago Red Stars

Matchup

52.37%

Win Prob

73.48%

→

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.90%

Chicago Red Stars 25.62% chance to win

Finals

vs. North Carolina Courage

Matchup

59.35%

Win Prob

26.52%

→

Semifinals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.23%

Portland Thorns 24.38% chance to win

Finals

vs. North Carolina Courage

Matchup

60.93%

Win Prob

29.86%

→

Semifinals

vs. Chicago Red Stars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.77%

Seattle Reign 12.05% chance to win

Finals

vs. Chicago Red Stars

Matchup

53.36%

Win Prob

42.93%

→

Semifinals

vs. North Carolina Courage

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.10%

Filter by Team:

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2019-04-14	@ North Carolina Courage	T 1-1	72.2	1543.12	1711.12	16.62%	20.16%	63.22%	-0.81	+1.51	1
2019-04-20	Portland Thorns	T 4-4	78.9	1544.63	1601.86	33.24%	26.57%	40.19%	-0.12	+0.20	2
2019-04-28	Seattle Reign	W 3-0	47.7	1544.83	1541.10	41.85%	26.43%	31.72%	+0.13	+9.00	5
2019-05-04	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-1	54.5	1553.83	1506.71	38.75%	26.64%	34.61%	+0.07	-6.04	5
2019-05-13	North Carolina Courage	W 3-1	66.0	1547.79	1715.82	21.35%	23.41%	55.25%	-0.57	+11.25	8
2019-05-20	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	57.8	1559.04	1494.34	41.26%	26.48%	32.26%	+0.15	+5.26	11
2019-05-27	Washington Spirit	L 0-2	51.9	1564.30	1355.62	67.84%	17.92%	14.23%	+0.98	-13.13	11
2019-06-03	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-3	47.9	1551.17	1594.51	27.04%	25.59%	47.37%	-0.30	-7.88	11
2019-06-24	Seattle Reign	L 0-1	56.1	1543.29	1539.26	41.89%	26.43%	31.69%	+0.14	-6.41	11
2019-06-30	@ Orlando Pride	W 3-2	55.9	1536.88	1405.02	50.52%	24.85%	24.62%	+0.42	+4.19	14
2019-07-07	Sky Blue FC	L 1-2	59.6	1541.07	1336.64	67.37%	18.16%	14.47%	+0.96	-9.24	14
2019-07-14	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	51.2	1531.83	1479.82	39.45%	26.61%	33.94%	+0.09	+5.47	17
2019-07-22	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	69.1	1537.30	1707.73	21.15%	23.30%	55.55%	-0.58	+7.99	20
2019-07-28	@ Seattle Reign	W 4-0	51.2	1545.29	1556.52	30.78%	26.31%	42.91%	-0.17	+13.06	23
2019-08-04	Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-0	45.5	1558.35	1487.91	51.02%	24.72%	24.26%	+0.41	+5.84	26
2019-08-11	@ Washington Spirit	W 1-0	43.0	1564.19	1374.77	57.94%	22.41%	19.65%	+0.66	+3.34	29
2019-08-15	@ Sky Blue FC	L 1-2	59.8	1567.53	1336.47	62.98%	20.27%	16.75%	+0.83	-8.79	29
2019-08-22	Orlando Pride	L 1-2	61.5	1558.74	1395.67	62.64%	20.42%	16.93%	+0.79	-8.76	29
2019-08-25	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-3	47.6	1549.98	1610.59	25.23%	25.06%	49.71%	-0.37	-7.42	29
2019-09-09	Houston Dash	W 3-0	41.9	1542.56	1466.59	51.75%	24.51%	23.73%	+0.43	+7.01	32
2019-09-12	@ Orlando Pride	W 1-0	44.4	1549.57	1394.19	53.62%	23.95%	22.43%	+0.52	+3.83	35
2019-09-15	@ Sky Blue FC	W 3-0	36.0	1553.40	1353.22	59.27%	21.88%	18.85%	+0.70	+5.54	38
2019-09-22	Washington Spirit	W 3-1	43.0	1558.94	1376.32	64.92%	19.36%	15.72%	+0.87	+3.69	41
2019-09-29	Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-1	55.2	1562.63	1494.98	50.65%	24.82%	24.53%	+0.40	+4.17	44
2019-04-15	Seattle Reign	T 1-1	63.8	1483.91	1542.53	33.06%	26.55%	40.39%	-0.12	+0.22	1
2019-04-21	@ Sky Blue FC	W 1-0	42.3	1484.13	1357.20	49.86%	25.02%	25.11%	+0.40	+4.26	4
2019-04-29	North Carolina Courage	L 1-4	49.8	1488.39	1713.19	17.16%	20.60%	62.24%	-0.81	-4.99	4
2019-05-06	Orlando Pride	W 1-0	43.8	1483.40	1416.48	50.55%	24.84%	24.60%	+0.39	+4.18	7
2019-05-11	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-1	59.5	1487.58	1512.76	29.10%	26.05%	44.86%	-0.22	+6.76	10
2019-05-20	Chicago Red Stars	L 1-2	57.8	1494.34	1559.04	32.26%	26.48%	41.26%	-0.15	-5.27	10
2019-06-02	@ Seattle Reign	T 1-1	64.3	1489.07	1541.42	26.08%	25.33%	48.59%	-0.33	+0.70	11
2019-06-16	Orlando Pride	T 2-2	65.4	1489.77	1398.64	53.73%	23.91%	22.35%	+0.49	-0.99	12
2019-06-23	@ Washington Spirit	T 0-0	53.9	1488.78	1380.96	47.27%	25.61%	27.11%	+0.32	-0.62	13
2019-06-30	Portland Thorns	L 1-2	57.1	1488.16	1602.38	26.42%	25.43%	48.15%	-0.35	-4.46	13
2019-07-06	@ North Carolina Courage	L 2-5	50.0	1483.70	1699.46	13.85%	17.53%	68.62%	-1.01	-3.88	13
2019-07-14	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	51.2	1479.82	1531.83	33.94%	26.61%	39.45%	-0.09	-5.48	13
2019-07-21	@ Washington Spirit	W 2-1	49.3	1474.34	1374.77	46.14%	25.83%	28.03%	+0.29	+4.70	16
2019-07-25	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-5	43.1	1479.04	1601.47	19.79%	22.50%	57.71%	-0.62	-7.54	16
2019-07-29	Sky Blue FC	W 1-0	39.1	1471.50	1343.16	58.45%	22.21%	19.34%	+0.65	+3.29	19
2019-08-03	Seattle Reign	L 0-1	50.7	1474.79	1543.47	31.75%	26.43%	41.82%	-0.16	-5.20	19
2019-08-11	@ Orlando Pride	W 1-0	46.0	1469.59	1407.72	40.85%	26.52%	32.63%	+0.14	+5.31	22
2019-08-25	Sky Blue FC	L 1-2	56.6	1474.90	1346.56	58.45%	22.21%	19.34%	+0.65	-8.31	22
2019-09-09	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-3	41.9	1466.59	1542.56	23.73%	24.51%	51.75%	-0.43	-7.01	22
2019-09-14	Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-1	56.9	1459.58	1511.03	34.02%	26.62%	39.37%	-0.09	+6.12	25
2019-09-18	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	46.8	1465.70	1716.57	12.09%	15.60%	72.31%	-1.15	-1.90	25
2019-09-22	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-1	47.1	1463.80	1599.02	18.84%	21.87%	59.29%	-0.68	-3.20	25
2019-09-26	Washington Spirit	T 0-0	53.3	1460.60	1372.63	53.32%	24.04%	22.63%	+0.48	-0.96	26
2019-10-13	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 1-2	52.7	1459.64	1490.81	28.40%	25.91%	45.69%	-0.25	-4.75	26
2019-04-14	Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	72.2	1711.12	1543.12	63.22%	20.16%	16.62%	+0.81	-1.51	1
2019-04-18	Orlando Pride	W 5-0	39.4	1709.61	1423.85	75.73%	13.74%	10.53%	+1.30	+3.58	4
2019-04-29	@ Houston Dash	W 4-1	49.8	1713.19	1488.39	62.24%	20.60%	17.16%	+0.81	+4.99	7
2019-05-05	Sky Blue FC	T 0-0	65.7	1718.18	1354.54	82.38%	10.04%	7.58%	+1.62	-2.36	8
2019-05-13	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 1-3	66.0	1715.82	1547.79	55.25%	23.41%	21.35%	+0.57	-11.25	8
2019-05-19	Utah Royals FC (1st)	T 1-1	71.8	1704.57	1506.00	66.72%	18.48%	14.79%	+0.94	-1.69	9
2019-05-28	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-2	69.0	1702.88	1533.45	55.43%	23.34%	21.23%	+0.58	-7.97	9
2019-06-02	@ Orlando Pride	W 3-0	39.6	1694.91	1402.32	69.87%	16.88%	13.24%	+1.08	+3.68	12
2019-06-16	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	71.8	1698.59	1602.40	54.39%	23.70%	21.91%	+0.52	-1.03	13
2019-06-30	@ Washington Spirit	W 2-1	49.4	1697.56	1381.58	72.31%	15.60%	12.09%	+1.18	+1.90	16
2019-07-06	Houston Dash	W 5-2	50.0	1699.46	1483.70	68.62%	17.53%	13.85%	+1.01	+3.88	19
2019-07-14	Seattle Reign	W 2-0	48.6	1703.34	1560.91	60.17%	21.50%	18.32%	+0.71	+4.39	22
2019-07-22	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 1-2	69.1	1707.73	1537.30	55.55%	23.30%	21.15%	+0.58	-7.99	22
2019-07-28	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-1	56.3	1699.74	1491.00	60.31%	21.44%	18.24%	+0.74	+3.09	25
2019-08-03	Washington Spirit	W 1-0	41.7	1702.83	1376.07	79.41%	11.71%	8.89%	+1.46	+1.30	28
2019-08-11	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-2	68.1	1704.13	1600.75	46.67%	25.73%	27.60%	+0.31	-6.97	28
2019-08-25	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	51.3	1697.16	1543.10	61.57%	20.90%	17.53%	+0.75	+2.95	31
2019-09-07	@ Sky Blue FC	W 2-1	47.7	1700.11	1354.87	75.20%	14.04%	10.77%	+1.30	+1.65	34
2019-09-12	@ Portland Thorns	W 6-0	53.0	1701.76	1610.87	44.94%	26.03%	29.03%	+0.25	+11.84	37
2019-09-15	Orlando Pride	W 6-1	40.0	1713.60	1390.36	79.11%	11.87%	9.02%	+1.45	+2.97	40
2019-09-18	Houston Dash	W 1-0	46.8	1716.57	1465.70	72.31%	15.60%	12.09%	+1.15	+1.89	43
2019-09-22	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 3-0	45.7	1718.46	1504.91	60.90%	21.20%	17.91%	+0.76	+5.24	46
2019-09-29	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	68.6	1723.70	1373.60	75.66%	13.78%	10.56%	+1.32	-9.99	46
2019-10-13	Sky Blue FC	W 3-2	51.2	1713.71	1356.81	81.86%	10.33%	7.81%	+1.59	+1.12	49
2019-04-14	Portland Thorns	L 0-2	43.5	1429.02	1596.70	21.38%	23.42%	55.20%	-0.57	-5.17	0
2019-04-18	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-5	39.4	1423.85	1709.61	10.53%	13.74%	75.73%	-1.30	-3.57	0
2019-04-22	@ Seattle Reign	T 1-1	62.6	1420.28	1542.31	19.82%	22.52%	57.66%	-0.62	+1.21	1
2019-04-28	Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-1	46.8	1421.49	1501.70	30.31%	26.25%	43.45%	-0.21	-5.01	1
2019-05-06	@ Houston Dash	L 0-1	43.8	1416.48	1483.40	24.60%	24.84%	50.55%	-0.39	-4.18	1
2019-05-12	Portland Thorns	L 1-3	48.0	1412.30	1600.05	19.77%	22.49%	57.74%	-0.65	-4.77	1
2019-05-26	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-2	39.6	1407.53	1507.69	21.58%	23.53%	54.90%	-0.53	-5.21	1
2019-06-02	North Carolina Courage	L 0-3	39.6	1402.32	1694.91	13.24%	16.88%	69.87%	-1.08	-3.68	1
2019-06-16	@ Houston Dash	T 2-2	65.4	1398.64	1489.77	22.35%	23.91%	53.73%	-0.49	+0.99	2
2019-06-23	@ Sky Blue FC	W 2-1	48.7	1399.63	1342.03	40.25%	26.56%	33.19%	+0.12	+5.39	5
2019-06-30	Chicago Red Stars	L 2-3	55.9	1405.02	1536.88	24.62%	24.85%	50.52%	-0.42	-4.19	5
2019-07-07	Washington Spirit	W 4-3	55.7	1400.83	1379.69	44.30%	26.13%	29.57%	+0.21	+4.91	8
2019-07-14	@ Portland Thorns	L 3-4	56.1	1405.74	1599.64	15.06%	18.74%	66.20%	-0.92	-2.48	8
2019-07-21	Sky Blue FC	W 1-0	40.9	1403.26	1353.60	48.23%	25.41%	26.36%	+0.32	+4.46	11
2019-08-11	Houston Dash	L 0-1	46.0	1407.72	1469.59	32.63%	26.52%	40.85%	-0.14	-5.32	11
2019-08-18	Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-2	41.9	1402.40	1498.00	28.48%	25.93%	45.59%	-0.27	-6.73	11
2019-08-22	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	61.5	1395.67	1558.74	16.93%	20.42%	62.64%	-0.79	+8.76	14
2019-08-25	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	50.4	1404.43	1369.39	37.01%	26.68%	36.30%	+0.02	-5.84	14
2019-09-08	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-3	44.6	1398.59	1540.15	18.38%	21.55%	60.07%	-0.70	-4.40	14
2019-09-12	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	44.4	1394.19	1549.57	22.43%	23.95%	53.62%	-0.52	-3.83	14
2019-09-15	@ North Carolina Courage	L 1-6	40.0	1390.36	1713.60	9.02%	11.87%	79.11%	-1.45	-2.97	14
2019-09-29	@ Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	55.3	1387.39	1356.82	36.37%	26.68%	36.95%	+0.01	+0.02	15
2019-10-05	Washington Spirit	L 0-3	40.6	1387.41	1383.59	41.86%	26.43%	31.71%	+0.14	-11.09	15
2019-10-13	Seattle Reign	T 2-2	66.8	1376.32	1547.94	21.05%	23.24%	55.71%	-0.59	+1.10	16
2019-04-14	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-0	43.5	1596.70	1429.02	55.20%	23.42%	21.38%	+0.57	+5.16	3
2019-04-20	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 4-4	78.9	1601.86	1544.63	40.19%	26.57%	33.24%	+0.12	-0.21	4
2019-04-29	@ Sky Blue FC	T 2-2	69.1	1601.65	1352.94	65.03%	19.31%	15.66%	+0.90	-1.60	5
2019-05-12	@ Orlando Pride	W 3-1	48.0	1600.05	1412.30	57.74%	22.49%	19.77%	+0.65	+4.77	8
2019-05-19	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-3	58.4	1604.82	1342.67	66.55%	18.57%	14.88%	+0.96	-12.95	8
2019-05-26	@ Sky Blue FC	W 1-0	41.0	1591.87	1347.59	64.52%	19.55%	15.93%	+0.89	+2.64	11
2019-06-03	Chicago Red Stars	W 3-0	47.9	1594.51	1551.17	47.37%	25.59%	27.04%	+0.30	+7.89	14
2019-06-16	@ North Carolina Courage	T 1-1	71.8	1602.40	1698.59	21.91%	23.70%	54.39%	-0.52	+1.03	15
2019-06-22	Utah Royals FC (1st)	T 0-0	62.8	1603.43	1505.06	54.67%	23.60%	21.73%	+0.52	-1.05	16
2019-06-30	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	57.1	1602.38	1488.16	48.15%	25.43%	26.42%	+0.35	+4.46	19
2019-07-06	Seattle Reign	L 0-1	60.2	1606.84	1553.71	48.70%	25.30%	26.00%	+0.34	-7.20	19
2019-07-14	Orlando Pride	W 4-3	56.1	1599.64	1405.74	66.20%	18.74%	15.06%	+0.92	+2.48	22
2019-07-20	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	T 2-2	72.2	1602.12	1490.35	47.81%	25.50%	26.69%	+0.34	-0.65	23
2019-07-25	Houston Dash	W 5-0	43.1	1601.47	1479.04	57.71%	22.50%	19.79%	+0.62	+7.54	26
2019-08-04	Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	64.5	1609.01	1339.87	74.13%	14.61%	11.25%	+1.23	-2.03	27
2019-08-08	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	57.9	1606.98	1548.67	40.35%	26.56%	33.10%	+0.12	-6.23	27
2019-08-11	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	68.1	1600.75	1704.13	27.60%	25.73%	46.67%	-0.31	+6.96	30
2019-08-18	Washington Spirit	W 3-1	42.8	1607.71	1371.43	70.81%	16.39%	12.80%	+1.09	+2.88	33
2019-08-25	Chicago Red Stars	W 3-0	47.6	1610.59	1549.98	49.71%	25.06%	25.23%	+0.37	+7.41	36
2019-09-07	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-1	58.9	1618.00	1503.89	48.13%	25.43%	26.44%	+0.35	-7.13	36
2019-09-12	North Carolina Courage	L 0-6	53.0	1610.87	1701.76	29.03%	26.03%	44.94%	-0.25	-11.85	36
2019-09-22	Houston Dash	W 1-0	47.1	1599.02	1463.80	59.29%	21.87%	18.84%	+0.68	+3.20	39
2019-09-29	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-2	54.2	1602.22	1539.02	41.04%	26.50%	32.45%	+0.14	-8.92	39
2019-10-13	Washington Spirit	T 0-0	60.1	1593.30	1394.69	66.73%	18.48%	14.79%	+0.94	-1.69	40
2019-04-15	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	63.8	1542.53	1483.91	40.39%	26.55%	33.06%	+0.12	-0.22	1
2019-04-22	Orlando Pride	T 1-1	62.6	1542.31	1420.28	57.66%	22.52%	19.82%	+0.62	-1.21	2
2019-04-28	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-3	47.7	1541.10	1544.83	31.72%	26.43%	41.85%	-0.13	-9.00	2
2019-05-05	@ Washington Spirit	T 0-0	54.8	1532.10	1334.70	58.93%	22.02%	19.05%	+0.69	-1.28	3
2019-05-18	Sky Blue FC	W 2-1	44.6	1530.82	1350.22	64.69%	19.47%	15.84%	+0.86	+2.63	6
2019-05-28	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	69.0	1533.45	1702.88	21.23%	23.34%	55.43%	-0.58	+7.97	9
2019-06-02	Houston Dash	T 1-1	64.3	1541.42	1489.07	48.59%	25.33%	26.08%	+0.33	-0.69	10
2019-06-16	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	61.7	1540.73	1379.50	62.43%	20.52%	17.05%	+0.78	-1.47	11
2019-06-24	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	56.1	1539.26	1543.29	31.69%	26.43%	41.89%	-0.14	+6.41	14
2019-06-29	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-0	49.7	1545.67	1506.11	37.66%	26.68%	35.66%	+0.04	+8.04	17
2019-07-06	@ Portland Thorns	W 1-0	60.2	1553.71	1606.84	26.00%	25.30%	48.70%	-0.34	+7.20	20
2019-07-14	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-2	48.6	1560.91	1703.34	18.32%	21.50%	60.17%	-0.71	-4.39	20
2019-07-28	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-4	51.2	1556.52	1545.29	42.91%	26.31%	30.78%	+0.17	-13.05	20
2019-08-03	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	50.7	1543.47	1474.79	41.82%	26.43%	31.75%	+0.16	+5.20	23
2019-08-08	Portland Thorns	W 1-0	57.9	1548.67	1606.98	33.10%	26.56%	40.35%	-0.12	+6.22	26
2019-08-11	Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 1-3	59.1	1554.89	1487.50	50.61%	24.83%	24.56%	+0.40	-10.49	26
2019-08-18	@ Sky Blue FC	T 1-1	60.3	1544.40	1345.27	59.14%	21.93%	18.92%	+0.70	-1.30	27
2019-08-25	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	51.3	1543.10	1697.16	17.53%	20.90%	61.57%	-0.75	-2.95	27
2019-09-08	Orlando Pride	W 3-1	44.6	1540.15	1398.59	60.07%	21.55%	18.38%	+0.70	+4.40	30
2019-09-15	@ Washington Spirit	T 2-2	66.6	1544.55	1375.23	55.41%	23.35%	21.24%	+0.58	-1.08	31
2019-09-22	Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	54.2	1543.47	1347.68	66.41%	18.64%	14.95%	+0.93	-9.15	31
2019-09-26	Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-1	55.7	1534.32	1499.67	46.17%	25.82%	28.00%	+0.26	+4.70	34
2019-09-29	Portland Thorns	W 2-0	54.2	1539.02	1602.22	32.45%	26.50%	41.04%	-0.14	+8.92	37
2019-10-13	@ Orlando Pride	T 2-2	66.8	1547.94	1376.32	55.71%	23.24%	21.05%	+0.59	-1.10	38
2019-04-14	@ Washington Spirit	L 0-2	40.1	1365.49	1329.27	37.18%	26.68%	36.14%	+0.03	-8.29	0
2019-04-21	Houston Dash	L 0-1	42.3	1357.20	1484.13	25.11%	25.02%	49.86%	-0.40	-4.26	0
2019-04-29	Portland Thorns	T 2-2	69.1	1352.94	1601.65	15.66%	19.31%	65.03%	-0.90	+1.60	1
2019-05-05	@ North Carolina Courage	T 0-0	65.7	1354.54	1718.18	7.58%	10.04%	82.38%	-1.62	+2.36	2
2019-05-11	Washington Spirit	L 2-3	56.2	1356.90	1335.98	44.27%	26.14%	29.60%	+0.21	-6.68	2
2019-05-18	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-2	44.6	1350.22	1530.82	15.84%	19.47%	64.69%	-0.86	-2.63	2
2019-05-26	Portland Thorns	L 0-1	41.0	1347.59	1591.87	15.93%	19.55%	64.52%	-0.89	-2.65	2
2019-06-16	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-1	38.8	1344.94	1502.15	17.32%	20.73%	61.95%	-0.77	-2.91	2
2019-06-23	Orlando Pride	L 1-2	48.7	1342.03	1399.63	33.19%	26.56%	40.25%	-0.12	-5.39	2
2019-07-07	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	59.6	1336.64	1541.07	14.47%	18.16%	67.37%	-0.96	+9.24	5
2019-07-13	Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 1-0	50.5	1345.88	1498.07	22.72%	24.08%	53.20%	-0.51	+7.72	8
2019-07-21	@ Orlando Pride	L 0-1	40.9	1353.60	1403.26	26.36%	25.41%	48.23%	-0.32	-4.45	8
2019-07-25	Washington Spirit	L 0-1	44.3	1349.15	1370.08	38.33%	26.66%	35.01%	+0.03	-5.99	8
2019-07-29	@ Houston Dash	L 0-1	39.1	1343.16	1471.50	19.34%	22.21%	58.45%	-0.65	-3.29	8
2019-08-04	@ Portland Thorns	T 1-1	64.5	1339.87	1609.01	11.25%	14.61%	74.13%	-1.23	+2.03	9
2019-08-08	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-3	33.4	1341.90	1482.07	18.48%	21.62%	59.90%	-0.70	-5.43	9
2019-08-15	Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	59.8	1336.47	1567.53	16.75%	20.27%	62.98%	-0.83	+8.80	12
2019-08-18	Seattle Reign	T 1-1	60.3	1345.27	1544.40	18.92%	21.93%	59.14%	-0.70	+1.29	13
2019-08-25	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	56.6	1346.56	1474.90	19.34%	22.21%	58.45%	-0.65	+8.31	16
2019-09-07	North Carolina Courage	L 1-2	47.7	1354.87	1700.11	10.77%	14.04%	75.20%	-1.30	-1.65	16
2019-09-15	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-3	36.0	1353.22	1553.40	18.85%	21.88%	59.27%	-0.70	-5.54	16
2019-09-22	@ Seattle Reign	W 1-0	54.2	1347.68	1543.47	14.95%	18.64%	66.41%	-0.93	+9.14	19
2019-09-29	Orlando Pride	T 1-1	55.3	1356.82	1387.39	36.95%	26.68%	36.37%	-0.01	-0.01	20
2019-10-13	@ North Carolina Courage	L 2-3	51.2	1356.81	1713.71	7.81%	10.33%	81.86%	-1.59	-1.12	20
2019-04-21	Washington Spirit	W 1-0	38.4	1498.84	1337.56	62.43%	20.52%	17.05%	+0.78	+2.86	3
2019-04-28	@ Orlando Pride	W 1-0	46.8	1501.70	1421.49	43.45%	26.25%	30.31%	+0.21	+5.01	6
2019-05-04	Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	54.5	1506.71	1553.83	34.61%	26.64%	38.75%	-0.07	+6.05	9
2019-05-11	Houston Dash	L 1-2	59.5	1512.76	1487.58	44.86%	26.05%	29.10%	+0.22	-6.76	9
2019-05-19	@ North Carolina Courage	T 1-1	71.8	1506.00	1704.57	14.79%	18.48%	66.72%	-0.94	+1.69	10
2019-05-26	Orlando Pride	W 2-0	39.6	1507.69	1407.53	54.90%	23.53%	21.58%	+0.53	+5.21	13
2019-06-02	@ Washington Spirit	L 0-2	47.9	1512.90	1368.75	52.15%	24.40%	23.45%	+0.47	-10.75	13
2019-06-16	Sky Blue FC	W 1-0	38.8	1502.15	1344.94	61.95%	20.73%	17.32%	+0.77	+2.91	16
2019-06-22	@ Portland Thorns	T 0-0	62.8	1505.06	1603.43	21.73%	23.60%	54.67%	-0.52	+1.05	17
2019-06-29	Seattle Reign	L 0-2	49.7	1506.11	1545.67	35.66%	26.68%	37.66%	-0.04	-8.04	17
2019-07-13	@ Sky Blue FC	L 0-1	50.5	1498.07	1345.88	53.20%	24.08%	22.72%	+0.51	-7.72	17
2019-07-20	Portland Thorns	T 2-2	72.2	1490.35	1602.12	26.69%	25.50%	47.81%	-0.34	+0.65	18
2019-07-28	North Carolina Courage	L 1-2	56.3	1491.00	1699.74	18.24%	21.44%	60.31%	-0.74	-3.09	18
2019-08-04	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-2	45.5	1487.91	1558.35	24.26%	24.72%	51.02%	-0.41	-5.84	18
2019-08-08	Sky Blue FC	W 3-0	33.4	1482.07	1341.90	59.90%	21.62%	18.48%	+0.70	+5.43	21
2019-08-11	@ Seattle Reign	W 3-1	59.1	1487.50	1554.89	24.56%	24.83%	50.61%	-0.40	+10.50	24
2019-08-18	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-0	41.9	1498.00	1402.40	45.59%	25.93%	28.48%	+0.27	+6.73	27
2019-08-22	@ Washington Spirit	T 0-0	54.2	1504.73	1368.55	51.10%	24.70%	24.20%	+0.44	-0.84	28
2019-09-07	Portland Thorns	W 1-0	58.9	1503.89	1618.00	26.44%	25.43%	48.13%	-0.35	+7.14	31
2019-09-14	@ Houston Dash	L 1-2	56.9	1511.03	1459.58	39.37%	26.62%	34.02%	+0.09	-6.12	31
2019-09-22	North Carolina Courage	L 0-3	45.7	1504.91	1718.46	17.91%	21.20%	60.90%	-0.76	-5.24	31
2019-09-26	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-2	55.7	1499.67	1534.32	28.00%	25.82%	46.17%	-0.26	-4.69	31
2019-09-29	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 1-2	55.2	1494.98	1562.63	24.53%	24.82%	50.65%	-0.40	-4.17	31
2019-10-13	Houston Dash	W 2-1	52.7	1490.81	1459.64	45.69%	25.91%	28.40%	+0.25	+4.74	34
2019-04-14	Sky Blue FC	W 2-0	40.1	1329.27	1365.49	36.14%	26.68%	37.18%	-0.03	+8.29	3
2019-04-21	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	L 0-1	38.4	1337.56	1498.84	17.05%	20.52%	62.43%	-0.78	-2.86	3
2019-05-05	Seattle Reign	T 0-0	54.8	1334.70	1532.10	19.05%	22.02%	58.93%	-0.69	+1.28	4
2019-05-11	@ Sky Blue FC	W 3-2	56.2	1335.98	1356.90	29.60%	26.14%	44.27%	-0.21	+6.69	7
2019-05-19	Portland Thorns	W 3-1	58.4	1342.67	1604.82	14.88%	18.57%	66.55%	-0.96	+12.95	10
2019-05-27	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 2-0	51.9	1355.62	1564.30	14.23%	17.92%	67.84%	-0.98	+13.13	13
2019-06-02	Utah Royals FC (1st)	W 2-0	47.9	1368.75	1512.90	23.45%	24.40%	52.15%	-0.47	+10.75	16
2019-06-16	@ Seattle Reign	T 1-1	61.7	1379.50	1540.73	17.05%	20.52%	62.43%	-0.78	+1.46	17
2019-06-23	Houston Dash	T 0-0	53.9	1380.96	1488.78	27.11%	25.61%	47.27%	-0.32	+0.62	18
2019-06-30	North Carolina Courage	L 1-2	49.4	1381.58	1697.56	12.09%	15.60%	72.31%	-1.18	-1.89	18
2019-07-07	@ Orlando Pride	L 3-4	55.7	1379.69	1400.83	29.57%	26.13%	44.30%	-0.21	-4.92	18
2019-07-21	Houston Dash	L 1-2	49.3	1374.77	1474.34	28.03%	25.83%	46.14%	-0.29	-4.69	18
2019-07-25	@ Sky Blue FC	W 1-0	44.3	1370.08	1349.15	35.01%	26.66%	38.33%	-0.03	+5.99	21
2019-08-03	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	41.7	1376.07	1702.83	8.89%	11.71%	79.41%	-1.46	-1.30	21
2019-08-11	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	43.0	1374.77	1564.19	19.65%	22.41%	57.94%	-0.66	-3.34	21
2019-08-18	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-3	42.8	1371.43	1607.71	12.80%	16.39%	70.81%	-1.09	-2.88	21
2019-08-22	Utah Royals FC (1st)	T 0-0	54.2	1368.55	1504.73	24.20%	24.70%	51.10%	-0.44	+0.84	22
2019-08-25	Orlando Pride	W 2-1	50.4	1369.39	1404.43	36.30%	26.68%	37.01%	-0.02	+5.84	25
2019-09-15	Seattle Reign	T 2-2	66.6	1375.23	1544.55	21.24%	23.35%	55.41%	-0.58	+1.09	26
2019-09-22	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 1-3	43.0	1376.32	1558.94	15.72%	19.36%	64.92%	-0.87	-3.69	26
2019-09-26	@ Houston Dash	T 0-0	53.3	1372.63	1460.60	22.63%	24.04%	53.32%	-0.48	+0.97	27
2019-09-29	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	68.6	1373.60	1723.70	10.56%	13.78%	75.66%	-1.32	+9.99	30
2019-10-05	@ Orlando Pride	W 3-0	40.6	1383.59	1387.41	31.71%	26.43%	41.86%	-0.14	+11.10	33
2019-10-13	@ Portland Thorns	T 0-0	60.1	1394.69	1593.30	14.79%	18.48%	66.73%	-0.94	+1.68	34

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2019-10-20	Portland Thorns	W 1-0	52.6	1566.80	1591.61	51.12%	0.00%	48.88%	+0.02	+5.67	1-0
2019-10-27	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-4	42.7	1572.47	1719.64	26.22%	0.00%	73.78%	-0.73	-6.08	1-1
2019-10-20	Seattle Reign	W 4-1	46.8	1714.83	1546.84	76.03%	0.00%	23.97%	+0.81	+4.81	1-0
2019-10-27	Chicago Red Stars	W 4-0	42.7	1719.64	1572.47	73.78%	0.00%	26.22%	+0.73	+6.08	2-0
2019-10-20	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	52.6	1591.61	1566.80	48.88%	0.00%	51.12%	-0.02	-5.67	0-1
2019-10-20	@ North Carolina Courage	L 1-4	46.8	1546.84	1714.83	23.97%	0.00%	76.03%	-0.81	-4.82	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2019-09-29	10.56%	@ Washington Spirit	1373.60	2	North Carolina Courage	1723.70	1
2	2019-05-27	14.23%	Washington Spirit	1355.62	2	@ Chicago Red Stars	1564.30	0
3	2019-07-07	14.47%	Sky Blue FC	1336.64	2	@ Chicago Red Stars	1541.07	1
4	2019-05-19	14.88%	@ Washington Spirit	1342.67	3	Portland Thorns	1604.82	1
5	2019-09-22	14.95%	Sky Blue FC	1347.68	1	@ Seattle Reign	1543.47	0
6	2019-08-15	16.75%	@ Sky Blue FC	1336.47	2	Chicago Red Stars	1567.53	1
7	2019-08-22	16.93%	Orlando Pride	1395.67	2	@ Chicago Red Stars	1558.74	1
8	2019-08-25	19.34%	Sky Blue FC	1346.56	2	@ Houston Dash	1474.90	1
9	2019-07-22	21.15%	@ Chicago Red Stars	1537.30	2	North Carolina Courage	1707.73	1
10	2019-05-28	21.23%	@ Seattle Reign	1533.45	2	North Carolina Courage	1702.88	1
11	2019-05-13	21.35%	@ Chicago Red Stars	1547.79	3	North Carolina Courage	1715.82	1
12	2019-07-13	22.72%	@ Sky Blue FC	1345.88	1	Utah Royals FC (1st)	1498.07	0
13	2019-06-02	23.45%	@ Washington Spirit	1368.75	2	Utah Royals FC (1st)	1512.90	0
14	2019-08-11	24.56%	Utah Royals FC (1st)	1487.50	3	@ Seattle Reign	1554.89	1
15	2019-07-06	26.00%	Seattle Reign	1553.71	1	@ Portland Thorns	1606.84	0
16	2019-09-07	26.44%	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	1503.89	1	Portland Thorns	1618.00	0
17	2019-08-11	27.60%	@ Portland Thorns	1600.75	2	North Carolina Courage	1704.13	1
18	2019-05-11	29.10%	Houston Dash	1487.58	2	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	1512.76	1
19	2019-05-11	29.60%	Washington Spirit	1335.98	3	@ Sky Blue FC	1356.90	2
20	2019-07-28	30.78%	Chicago Red Stars	1545.29	4	@ Seattle Reign	1556.52	0
21	2019-06-24	31.69%	Seattle Reign	1539.26	1	@ Chicago Red Stars	1543.29	0
22	2019-10-05	31.71%	Washington Spirit	1383.59	3	@ Orlando Pride	1387.41	0
23	2019-09-29	32.45%	@ Seattle Reign	1539.02	2	Portland Thorns	1602.22	0
24	2019-08-08	33.10%	@ Seattle Reign	1548.67	1	Portland Thorns	1606.98	0
25	2019-09-14	34.02%	@ Houston Dash	1459.58	2	Utah Royals FC (1st)	1511.03	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2019-05-27	13.13	Washington Spirit	2	1355.62	14.23%	@ Chicago Red Stars	0	1564.30	67.84%	17.92%
2	2019-07-28	13.06	Chicago Red Stars	4	1545.29	30.78%	@ Seattle Reign	0	1556.52	42.91%	26.31%
3	2019-05-19	12.95	@ Washington Spirit	3	1342.67	14.88%	Portland Thorns	1	1604.82	66.55%	18.57%
4	2019-09-12	11.85	North Carolina Courage	6	1701.76	44.94%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1610.87	29.03%	26.03%
5	2019-05-13	11.25	@ Chicago Red Stars	3	1547.79	21.35%	North Carolina Courage	1	1715.82	55.25%	23.41%
6	2019-10-05	11.10	Washington Spirit	3	1383.59	31.71%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1387.41	41.86%	26.43%
7	2019-06-02	10.75	@ Washington Spirit	2	1368.75	23.45%	Utah Royals FC (1st)	0	1512.90	52.15%	24.40%
8	2019-08-11	10.50	Utah Royals FC (1st)	3	1487.50	24.56%	@ Seattle Reign	1	1554.89	50.61%	24.83%
9	2019-09-29	9.99	@ Washington Spirit	2	1373.60	10.56%	North Carolina Courage	1	1723.70	75.66%	13.78%
10	2019-07-07	9.24	Sky Blue FC	2	1336.64	14.47%	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1541.07	67.37%	18.16%
11	2019-09-22	9.15	Sky Blue FC	1	1347.68	14.95%	@ Seattle Reign	0	1543.47	66.41%	18.64%
12	2019-04-28	9.00	@ Chicago Red Stars	3	1544.83	41.85%	Seattle Reign	0	1541.10	31.72%	26.43%
13	2019-09-29	8.92	@ Seattle Reign	2	1539.02	32.45%	Portland Thorns	0	1602.22	41.04%	26.50%
14	2019-08-15	8.80	@ Sky Blue FC	2	1336.47	16.75%	Chicago Red Stars	1	1567.53	62.98%	20.27%
15	2019-08-22	8.76	Orlando Pride	2	1395.67	16.93%	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1558.74	62.64%	20.42%
16	2019-08-25	8.31	Sky Blue FC	2	1346.56	19.34%	@ Houston Dash	1	1474.90	58.45%	22.21%
17	2019-04-14	8.29	@ Washington Spirit	2	1329.27	36.14%	Sky Blue FC	0	1365.49	37.18%	26.68%
18	2019-06-29	8.04	Seattle Reign	2	1545.67	37.66%	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	0	1506.11	35.66%	26.68%
19	2019-07-22	7.99	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1537.30	21.15%	North Carolina Courage	1	1707.73	55.55%	23.30%
20	2019-05-28	7.97	@ Seattle Reign	2	1533.45	21.23%	North Carolina Courage	1	1702.88	55.43%	23.34%
21	2019-06-03	7.89	@ Portland Thorns	3	1594.51	47.37%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1551.17	27.04%	25.59%
22	2019-07-13	7.72	@ Sky Blue FC	1	1345.88	22.72%	Utah Royals FC (1st)	0	1498.07	53.20%	24.08%
23	2019-07-25	7.54	@ Portland Thorns	5	1601.47	57.71%	Houston Dash	0	1479.04	19.79%	22.50%
24	2019-08-25	7.42	@ Portland Thorns	3	1610.59	49.71%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1549.98	25.23%	25.06%
25	2019-07-06	7.20	Seattle Reign	1	1553.71	26.00%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1606.84	48.70%	25.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season's games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2019-04-20	78.9	@ Chicago Red Stars	4	1544.63	33.24%	Portland Thorns	4	1601.86	40.19%	26.57%
2	2019-04-14	72.2	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1711.12	63.22%	Chicago Red Stars	1	1543.12	16.62%	20.16%
3	2019-07-20	72.2	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	2	1490.35	26.69%	Portland Thorns	2	1602.12	47.81%	25.50%
4	2019-05-19	71.8	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1704.57	66.72%	Utah Royals FC (1st)	1	1506.00	14.79%	18.48%
5	2019-06-16	71.8	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1698.59	54.39%	Portland Thorns	1	1602.40	21.91%	23.70%
6	2019-04-29	69.1	@ Sky Blue FC	2	1352.94	15.66%	Portland Thorns	2	1601.65	65.03%	19.31%
7	2019-07-22	69.1	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1537.30	21.15%	North Carolina Courage	1	1707.73	55.55%	23.30%
8	2019-05-28	69.0	@ Seattle Reign	2	1533.45	21.23%	North Carolina Courage	1	1702.88	55.43%	23.34%
9	2019-09-29	68.6	@ Washington Spirit	2	1373.60	10.56%	North Carolina Courage	1	1723.70	75.66%	13.78%
10	2019-08-11	68.1	@ Portland Thorns	2	1600.75	27.60%	North Carolina Courage	1	1704.13	46.67%	25.73%
11	2019-10-13	66.8	@ Orlando Pride	2	1376.32	21.05%	Seattle Reign	2	1547.94	55.71%	23.24%
12	2019-09-15	66.6	@ Washington Spirit	2	1375.23	21.24%	Seattle Reign	2	1544.55	55.41%	23.35%
13	2019-05-13	66.0	@ Chicago Red Stars	3	1547.79	21.35%	North Carolina Courage	1	1715.82	55.25%	23.41%
14	2019-05-05	65.7	@ North Carolina Courage	0	1718.18	82.38%	Sky Blue FC	0	1354.54	7.58%	10.04%
15	2019-06-16	65.4	@ Houston Dash	2	1489.77	53.73%	Orlando Pride	2	1398.64	22.35%	23.91%
16	2019-08-04	64.5	@ Portland Thorns	1	1609.01	74.13%	Sky Blue FC	1	1339.87	11.25%	14.61%
17	2019-06-02	64.3	@ Seattle Reign	1	1541.42	48.59%	Houston Dash	1	1489.07	26.08%	25.33%
18	2019-04-15	63.8	@ Houston Dash	1	1483.91	33.06%	Seattle Reign	1	1542.53	40.39%	26.55%
19	2019-06-22	62.8	@ Portland Thorns	0	1603.43	54.67%	Utah Royals FC (1st)	0	1505.06	21.73%	23.60%
20	2019-04-22	62.6	@ Seattle Reign	1	1542.31	57.66%	Orlando Pride	1	1420.28	19.82%	22.52%
21	2019-06-16	61.7	@ Seattle Reign	1	1540.73	62.43%	Washington Spirit	1	1379.50	17.05%	20.52%
22	2019-08-22	61.5	Orlando Pride	2	1395.67	16.93%	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1558.74	62.64%	20.42%
23	2019-08-18	60.3	@ Sky Blue FC	1	1345.27	18.92%	Seattle Reign	1	1544.40	59.14%	21.93%
24	2019-07-06	60.2	Seattle Reign	1	1553.71	26.00%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1606.84	48.70%	25.30%
25	2019-10-13	60.1	@ Portland Thorns	0	1593.30	66.73%	Washington Spirit	0	1394.69	14.79%	18.48%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2019-08-08	33.4	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	3	1482.07	59.90%	Sky Blue FC	0	1341.90	18.48%	21.62%
2	2019-09-15	36.0	Chicago Red Stars	3	1553.40	59.27%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1353.22	18.85%	21.88%
3	2019-04-21	38.4	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	1	1498.84	62.43%	Washington Spirit	0	1337.56	17.05%	20.52%
4	2019-06-16	38.8	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	1	1502.15	61.95%	Sky Blue FC	0	1344.94	17.32%	20.73%
5	2019-07-29	39.1	@ Houston Dash	1	1471.50	58.45%	Sky Blue FC	0	1343.16	19.34%	22.21%
6	2019-04-18	39.4	@ North Carolina Courage	5	1709.61	75.73%	Orlando Pride	0	1423.85	10.53%	13.74%
7	2019-05-26	39.6	@ Utah Royals FC (1st)	2	1507.69	54.90%	Orlando Pride	0	1407.53	21.58%	23.53%
8	2019-06-02	39.6	North Carolina Courage	3	1694.91	69.87%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1402.32	13.24%	16.88%
9	2019-09-15	40.0	@ North Carolina Courage	6	1713.60	79.11%	Orlando Pride	1	1390.36	9.02%	11.87%
10	2019-04-14	40.1	@ Washington Spirit	2	1329.27	36.14%	Sky Blue FC	0	1365.49	37.18%	26.68%
11	2019-10-05	40.6	Washington Spirit	3	1383.59	31.71%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1387.41	41.86%	26.43%
12	2019-07-21	40.9	@ Orlando Pride	1	1403.26	48.23%	Sky Blue FC	0	1353.60	26.36%	25.41%
13	2019-05-26	41.0	Portland Thorns	1	1591.87	64.52%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1347.59	15.93%	19.55%
14	2019-08-03	41.7	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1702.83	79.41%	Washington Spirit	0	1376.07	8.89%	11.71%
15	2019-08-18	41.9	Utah Royals FC (1st)	2	1498.00	45.59%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1402.40	28.48%	25.93%
16	2019-09-09	41.9	@ Chicago Red Stars	3	1542.56	51.75%	Houston Dash	0	1466.59	23.73%	24.51%
17	2019-04-21	42.3	Houston Dash	1	1484.13	49.86%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1357.20	25.11%	25.02%
18	2019-10-27 *	42.7	@ North Carolina Courage	4	1719.64	73.78%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1572.47	26.22%	0.00%
19	2019-08-18	42.8	@ Portland Thorns	3	1607.71	70.81%	Washington Spirit	1	1371.43	12.80%	16.39%
20	2019-08-11	43.0	Chicago Red Stars	1	1564.19	57.94%	@ Washington Spirit	0	1374.77	19.65%	22.41%
21	2019-09-22	43.0	@ Chicago Red Stars	3	1558.94	64.92%	Washington Spirit	1	1376.32	15.72%	19.36%
22	2019-07-25	43.1	@ Portland Thorns	5	1601.47	57.71%	Houston Dash	0	1479.04	19.79%	22.50%
23	2019-04-14	43.5	Portland Thorns	2	1596.70	55.20%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1429.02	21.38%	23.42%
24	2019-05-06	43.8	@ Houston Dash	1	1483.40	50.55%	Orlando Pride	0	1416.48	24.60%	24.84%
25	2019-07-25	44.3	Washington Spirit	1	1370.08	35.01%	@ Sky Blue FC	0	1349.15	38.33%	26.66%