1957 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Detroit Lions

4th Title

Last Title: 1953

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

7th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1955

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2.73 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.77 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Cardinals

2.67 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.67 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	2	1	.792	-	269	172	+97	6.77	+2.73
2	New York Giants	7	5	0	.583	2.5	254	211	+43	6.72	+0.28
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	6	0	.500	3.5	161	178	-17	5.75	+0.25
4	Washington Redskins	5	6	1	.458	4	251	230	+21	5.70	-0.20
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	8	0	.333	5.5	173	230	-57	5.65	-1.65
6	Chicago Cardinals	3	9	0	.250	6.5	200	299	-99	5.67	-2.67

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	8	4	.667	-	260	264	-4	5.76	+2.24
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	8	4	.667	-	251	231	+20	6.16	+1.84
3	Baltimore Colts	7	5	.583	1	303	235	+68	6.35	+0.65
4	Los Angeles Rams	6	6	.500	2	307	278	+29	5.95	+0.05
5	Chicago Bears	5	7	.417	3	203	211	-8	6.19	-1.19
6	Green Bay Packers	3	9	.250	5	218	311	-93	5.34	-2.34

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Detroit Lions 31

San Francisco 49ers 27

Dec 22

NFL Championship Game

Detroit Lions 59

Cleveland Browns (1st) 14

Dec 29

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1570	9.5	6.77	+2.73	95.60%	4	6	7	8	9	12
Detroit Lions	West	1533	8	6.16	+1.84	92.36%	3	5	6	7	9	12
New York Giants	East	1528	7	6.72	+0.28	69.18%	4	5	7	8	9	12
Baltimore Colts	West	1521	7	6.35	+0.65	76.47%	3	5	6	7	9	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1510	6	5.95	+0.05	64.65%	3	5	6	7	9	12
Washington Redskins	East	1509	5.5	5.70	-0.20	47.90%	3	4	6	7	8	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1503	8	5.76	+2.24	95.28%	3	4	6	7	8	12
Chicago Bears	West	1499	5	6.19	-1.19	36.30%	3	5	6	7	9	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1491	6	5.75	+0.25	68.89%	3	4	6	7	8	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1460	4	5.65	-1.65	27.04%	3	4	6	7	8	12
Chicago Cardinals	East	1442	3	5.67	-2.67	11.04%	3	4	6	7	8	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1434	3	5.34	-2.34	15.20%	3	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
New York Giants	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	-

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-
Green Bay Packers	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Rams	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	2.78%	2.08%	2.08%	1.39%	0.69%	0.69%	—	9.72%
7–13	2.08%	1.39%	5.56%	5.56%	1.39%	—	0.69%	16.67%
14–20	2.08%	5.56%	—	10.42%	4.17%	1.39%	2.08%	25.69%
21–27	1.39%	5.56%	10.42%	2.78%	3.47%	2.08%	—	25.69%
28–34	0.69%	1.39%	4.17%	3.47%	2.78%	0.69%	0.69%	13.89%
35–41	0.69%	—	1.39%	2.08%	0.69%	—	—	4.86%
42+	—	0.69%	2.08%	—	0.69%	—	—	3.47%
Total	9.72%	16.67%	25.69%	25.69%	13.89%	4.86%	3.47%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.79	19.79	+0.00
SD	10.31	10.31	14.37
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	45	45	+35
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	8.33%	58.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.25	19.58	+5.67
SD	9.01	7.75	12.86
CV	0.36	0.40	—
Max	45	37	+28
Min	13	10	-16

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	8.33%	8.33%	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	50.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.92	17.58	-0.67
SD	7.89	7.32	10.39
CV	0.47	0.42	—
Max	34	29	+20
Min	3	6	-15

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	8.33%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.67	24.92	-8.25
SD	12.53	9.13	16.70
CV	0.75	0.37	—
Max	44	38	+30
Min	0	10	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
Total	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	25.00%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.42	14.33	+8.08
SD	11.90	11.32	12.75
CV	0.53	0.79	—
Max	45	31	+31
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.92	19.25	+1.67
SD	8.18	11.57	14.05
CV	0.39	0.60	—
Max	31	35	+21
Min	7	6	-20

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	33.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%	58.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	16.67%	41.67%	16.67%	—	16.67%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.17	25.92	-7.75
SD	6.07	10.12	12.27
CV	0.33	0.39	—
Max	27	45	+17
Min	6	10	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	25.00%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.58	23.17	+2.42
SD	11.70	9.91	13.28
CV	0.46	0.43	—
Max	42	45	+25
Min	7	10	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	—	33.33%	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.17	17.58	+3.58
SD	9.64	11.03	14.27
CV	0.46	0.63	—
Max	35	34	+35
Min	3	0	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	33.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.42	19.17	-4.75
SD	11.20	11.13	13.78
CV	0.78	0.58	—
Max	38	42	+17
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	41.67%
7–13	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.42	14.83	-1.42
SD	10.96	10.83	18.03
CV	0.82	0.73	—
Max	29	35	+25
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	50.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	66.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	58.33%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.67	22.00	-0.33
SD	7.02	7.65	9.85
CV	0.32	0.35	—
Max	35	37	+10
Min	10	13	-21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	25.00%	—	—	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.92	19.17	+1.75
SD	11.31	11.95	18.21
CV	0.54	0.62	—
Max	42	44	+35
Min	7	3	-30

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.31	+0.2
Allowed	0.33	-0.3
Differential	0.73	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9.5	6.77	+2.73
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	5.76	+2.24
3	Detroit Lions	8	6.16	+1.84
4	Baltimore Colts	7	6.35	+0.65
5	New York Giants	7	6.72	+0.28

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Cardinals	3	5.67	-2.67
2	Green Bay Packers	3	5.34	-2.34
3	Philadelphia Eagles	4	5.65	-1.65
4	Chicago Bears	5	6.19	-1.19
5	Washington Redskins	5.5	5.70	-0.20

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Francisco 49ers	5	Oct 6 – Nov 3	1 in 36
2	Baltimore Colts	4	Nov 10 – Dec 1	1 in 14
3	New York Giants	4	Nov 3 – Nov 24	1 in 9
4	Washington Redskins	3	Dec 1 – Dec 15	1 in 8
5	Detroit Lions	3	Oct 6 – Oct 20	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	6	Oct 27 – Dec 8	1 in 49
2	New York Giants	3	Dec 1 – Dec 15	1 in 15
3	Baltimore Colts	3	Oct 20 – Nov 3	1 in 13
4	Green Bay Packers	3	Oct 6 – Oct 20	1 in 11
5	Chicago Bears	3	Sep 29 – Oct 13	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.21%	21.69%	17.48%	14.25%	11.23%	8.14%
New York Giants	27.00%	21.22%	17.55%	14.37%	11.47%	8.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.14%	14.94%	16.45%	17.77%	18.80%	19.90%
Washington Redskins	11.47%	14.03%	16.22%	17.97%	19.49%	20.82%
Chicago Cardinals	11.25%	14.12%	16.11%	17.86%	19.52%	21.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.94%	14.01%	16.19%	17.79%	19.49%	21.59%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Baltimore Colts	22.48%	19.22%	17.49%	15.57%	13.71%	11.54%
Chicago Bears	20.07%	18.83%	17.32%	16.19%	14.65%	12.95%
Detroit Lions	18.88%	18.07%	17.38%	16.41%	15.39%	13.87%
Los Angeles Rams	16.07%	16.74%	16.86%	17.25%	16.88%	16.20%
San Francisco 49ers	13.29%	15.12%	16.33%	17.63%	18.51%	19.14%
Green Bay Packers	9.22%	12.02%	14.63%	16.95%	20.87%	26.30%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	15.84%	12.51%	11.39%	10.04%	9.20%	8.17%	7.40%	6.62%	5.92%	5.13%	4.45%	3.33%
New York Giants	15.38%	12.59%	11.06%	9.95%	9.23%	8.06%	7.48%	6.83%	6.04%	5.30%	4.44%	3.65%
Baltimore Colts	10.62%	11.05%	9.58%	9.74%	8.78%	8.75%	7.97%	7.70%	7.20%	6.87%	6.19%	5.53%
Chicago Bears	9.23%	10.01%	9.32%	9.50%	8.60%	8.87%	8.12%	8.06%	7.62%	7.31%	6.85%	6.50%
Detroit Lions	9.01%	9.33%	9.01%	9.00%	8.71%	8.81%	8.23%	8.25%	7.85%	7.85%	7.22%	6.72%
Los Angeles Rams	7.27%	8.15%	8.21%	8.50%	8.32%	8.69%	8.55%	8.78%	8.62%	8.46%	8.26%	8.21%
San Francisco 49ers	5.89%	6.90%	7.30%	7.79%	7.85%	8.54%	8.72%	8.97%	9.19%	9.36%	9.55%	9.95%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.09%	6.44%	7.52%	7.65%	8.28%	8.02%	8.79%	8.94%	9.14%	9.42%	9.87%	9.84%
Washington Redskins	5.74%	6.20%	7.08%	7.18%	8.17%	7.96%	8.95%	9.08%	9.61%	9.61%	10.16%	10.27%
Chicago Cardinals	5.59%	6.12%	6.94%	7.14%	7.99%	8.24%	8.90%	8.93%	9.43%	9.74%	10.35%	10.64%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.50%	5.90%	7.01%	7.06%	8.02%	8.17%	8.76%	9.01%	9.46%	9.88%	10.49%	10.75%
Green Bay Packers	3.84%	4.82%	5.58%	6.45%	6.84%	7.74%	8.13%	8.83%	9.93%	11.07%	12.16%	14.61%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.21%	72.79%
New York Giants	27.00%	73.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.14%	87.86%
Washington Redskins	11.47%	88.53%
Chicago Cardinals	11.25%	88.75%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.94%	89.06%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	22.48%	77.52%
Chicago Bears	20.07%	79.93%
Detroit Lions	18.88%	81.12%
Los Angeles Rams	16.07%	83.93%
San Francisco 49ers	13.29%	86.72%
Green Bay Packers	9.22%	90.78%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+12.50%

Fortress

55.56%1.39%43.06%

Elo Value

Home Edge

22 Elo

0.046 points per Elo point

043.6660

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.81 points

Lean Home

-8+2.03+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

10.0

Wide Open

124812

Champion Preseason Odds

11%

Detroit Lions, 4th of 12

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.37 · As Expected: 1.37 to 1.88 · Elevated: 1.88 to 2.56 · High Variance: 2.56 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.9 · Close: 2.9 to 3.92 · Off Target: 3.92 to 5.11 · Well Off Target: 5.11 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.09 · As Expected: 1.09 to 1.82 · More Than Expected: 1.82 to 2.92 · Far More Than Expected: 2.92 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.66 wins

As Expected

01.714

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

Pinpoint

03.418

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.60%

Cleveland Browns (1st)

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

11.04%

Chicago Cardinals

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Several Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

01.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.26

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

56%

Even

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

69%

Clear Edge

50%69%100%

Close Games

Expected

Mostly Decisive

0%19%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Frequent

0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.24

Hard to Predict

00.241

Matchup Imbalance

0.15

Slight Separation

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.11

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

44%

Upset-Prone

0%42%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%36%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.14 · Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.28 · Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.20

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.04

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.061

Well Within Noise

00.1400.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.21%	14.55%
Baltimore Colts	22.48%	12.70%
New York Giants	27.00%	12.42%
Detroit Lions	18.88%	11.15%
Chicago Bears	20.07%	10.84%
Los Angeles Rams	16.07%	8.89%
San Francisco 49ers	13.29%	7.18%
Washington Redskins	11.47%	5.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.14%	5.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.94%	4.14%
Green Bay Packers	9.22%	4.04%
Chicago Cardinals	11.25%	3.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	33.2%2.66%	34.6%1.76%	30.9%2.39%	46.5%1.15%	37.2%2.04%	36.8%1.25%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	52.0%6.58%	54.0%5.78%	49.1%4.37%	64.5%2.74%	52.1%3.81%	53.7%3.93%
New York Giants	44.6%6.33%	46.7%5.62%	42.7%5.52%	58.2%1.96%	45.0%4.61%	47.4%2.97%
Philadelphia Eagles	35.9%2.63%	39.5%2.40%	34.4%1.70%	47.4%1.17%	36.0%1.43%	37.0%1.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.5%2.16%	41.9%2.60%	38.1%2.48%	51.7%0.97%	41.7%2.13%	42.5%1.80%
Washington Redskins	41.6%2.12%	44.1%1.92%	39.6%2.42%	54.9%1.23%	46.7%2.05%	44.4%1.73%
Baltimore Colts							66.8%2.66%	48.0%6.58%	55.4%6.33%	64.1%2.63%	61.5%2.16%	58.4%2.12%
Chicago Bears							65.4%1.76%	46.0%5.78%	53.3%5.62%	60.5%2.40%	58.1%2.60%	55.9%1.92%
Detroit Lions							69.1%2.39%	50.9%4.37%	57.3%5.52%	65.6%1.70%	61.9%2.48%	60.4%2.42%
Green Bay Packers							53.5%1.15%	35.5%2.74%	41.8%1.96%	52.6%1.17%	48.3%0.97%	45.1%1.23%
Los Angeles Rams							62.8%2.04%	47.9%3.81%	55.0%4.61%	64.0%1.43%	58.3%2.13%	53.3%2.05%
San Francisco 49ers							63.2%1.25%	46.3%3.93%	52.6%2.97%	63.0%1.61%	57.5%1.80%	55.6%1.73%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	51.37%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Cleveland Browns (1st)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.6%100.00%
Detroit Lions		51.4%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Detroit Lions 51.37% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.37%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 48.63% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.63%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1957-09-29	Detroit Lions	W 34-14	1486.56	1509.09	52.20%	46.13%	+12.35	1-0
1957-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 21-10	1498.91	1508.88	54.00%	44.35%	+8.81	2-0
1957-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 45-17	1507.72	1484.78	46.19%	52.14%	+16.48	3-0
1957-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-31	1524.20	1511.48	44.74%	53.60%	-5.36	3-1
1957-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1518.84	1458.27	63.73%	34.73%	-6.57	3-2
1957-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-19	1512.27	1490.71	58.44%	39.94%	-8.54	3-3
1957-11-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-17	1503.73	1490.15	44.86%	53.48%	+6.39	4-3
1957-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 29-14	1510.12	1509.04	43.09%	55.26%	+12.77	5-3
1957-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-21	1522.89	1484.25	60.79%	37.62%	+5.53	6-3
1957-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-14	1528.42	1497.23	59.77%	38.63%	+9.55	7-3
1957-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-17	1537.97	1491.19	49.61%	48.71%	-5.93	7-4
1957-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-37	1532.04	1499.02	47.63%	50.69%	-11.40	7-5
1957-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1514.44	1489.63	46.46%	51.87%	-5.56	0-1
1957-10-05	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-21	1508.88	1498.91	44.35%	54.00%	-8.81	0-2
1957-10-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1500.07	1477.74	58.54%	39.83%	-6.98	0-3
1957-10-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-26	1493.09	1493.27	55.39%	42.96%	+7.28	1-3
1957-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1500.37	1494.75	43.73%	54.62%	-5.24	1-4
1957-11-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-10	1495.13	1498.00	42.53%	55.82%	+8.16	2-4
1957-11-10	Green Bay Packers	W 21-14	1503.29	1454.39	62.17%	36.25%	+5.75	3-4
1957-11-17	Baltimore Colts	L 14-29	1509.04	1510.12	55.26%	43.09%	-12.77	3-5
1957-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-7	1496.27	1521.52	39.43%	58.95%	+15.72	4-5
1957-12-01	Washington Redskins	L 3-14	1511.99	1475.85	60.45%	37.96%	-11.95	4-6
1957-12-08	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 14-6	1500.04	1458.86	48.81%	49.52%	+8.37	5-6
1957-12-15	Detroit Lions	L 13-21	1508.41	1524.47	53.13%	45.21%	-8.97	5-7
1957-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-10	1504.67	1482.73	46.05%	52.29%	+9.88	1-0
1957-10-06	Washington Redskins	L 14-37	1514.55	1486.64	59.32%	39.07%	-16.97	1-1
1957-10-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-29	1497.58	1490.35	43.96%	54.39%	-7.89	1-2
1957-10-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 44-14	1489.69	1497.29	41.87%	56.49%	+18.46	2-2
1957-10-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1508.15	1530.45	52.23%	46.10%	-9.87	2-3
1957-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-38	1498.28	1475.28	58.64%	39.74%	-14.42	2-4
1957-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 14-27	1483.86	1536.27	35.79%	62.64%	-7.74	2-5
1957-11-24	New York Giants	L 21-28	1476.12	1551.40	44.64%	53.70%	-7.07	2-6
1957-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-31	1469.05	1563.49	30.48%	68.06%	-10.19	2-7
1957-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 6-14	1458.86	1500.04	49.52%	48.81%	-8.37	2-8
1957-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-27	1450.49	1467.22	40.60%	57.77%	+6.89	3-8
1957-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 2-27	1457.38	1475.07	52.89%	45.44%	-15.80	3-9
1957-09-29	New York Giants	W 6-3	1516.62	1519.80	54.96%	43.39%	+4.50	1-0
1957-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-12	1521.12	1500.76	45.82%	52.51%	+10.40	2-0
1957-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-7	1531.52	1480.45	62.47%	35.97%	+8.90	3-0
1957-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-17	1540.42	1471.55	52.78%	45.55%	-9.97	3-1
1957-10-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-7	1530.45	1508.15	46.10%	52.23%	+9.87	4-1
1957-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 21-17	1540.32	1494.55	61.75%	36.67%	+4.40	5-1
1957-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-0	1544.72	1499.25	61.71%	36.71%	+10.78	6-1
1957-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	T 30-30	1555.50	1483.76	53.20%	45.14%	-0.11	6-1
1957-11-24	Los Angeles Rams	W 45-31	1555.39	1505.34	62.33%	36.10%	+8.10	7-1
1957-12-01	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-0	1563.49	1469.05	68.06%	30.48%	+10.18	8-1
1957-12-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-20	1573.67	1513.36	51.56%	46.77%	-11.10	8-2
1957-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 34-28	1562.57	1535.37	46.80%	51.53%	+7.54	9-2
1957-09-29	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-34	1509.09	1486.56	46.13%	52.20%	-12.35	0-1
1957-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1496.74	1495.19	43.15%	55.19%	+10.42	1-1
1957-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-7	1507.16	1497.59	56.76%	41.60%	+4.32	2-1
1957-10-20	Baltimore Colts	W 31-27	1511.48	1524.20	53.60%	44.74%	+5.35	3-1
1957-10-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-35	1516.83	1485.99	47.32%	51.01%	-12.01	3-2
1957-11-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-35	1504.82	1499.99	43.62%	54.73%	-5.23	3-3
1957-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-16	1499.59	1489.70	44.33%	54.01%	+10.70	4-3
1957-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-10	1510.29	1495.48	57.50%	40.87%	+11.23	5-3
1957-11-24	Chicago Bears	L 7-27	1521.52	1496.27	58.95%	39.43%	-15.73	5-4
1957-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 18-6	1505.79	1458.05	62.02%	36.41%	+7.57	6-4
1957-12-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-7	1513.36	1573.67	46.77%	51.56%	+11.11	7-4
1957-12-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-13	1524.47	1508.41	45.21%	53.13%	+8.97	8-4
1957-09-29	Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1489.63	1514.44	51.87%	46.46%	+5.56	1-0
1957-10-06	Detroit Lions	L 14-24	1495.19	1496.74	55.19%	43.15%	-10.41	1-1
1957-10-13	Baltimore Colts	L 17-45	1484.78	1507.72	52.14%	46.19%	-16.49	1-2
1957-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1468.29	1484.73	53.07%	45.26%	-10.02	1-3
1957-10-27	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-21	1458.27	1518.84	34.73%	63.73%	+6.57	2-3
1957-11-03	New York Giants	L 17-31	1464.84	1525.81	46.68%	51.65%	-10.45	2-4
1957-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-21	1454.39	1503.29	36.25%	62.17%	-5.75	2-5
1957-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-31	1448.64	1499.58	48.12%	50.21%	-5.76	2-6
1957-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-10	1442.88	1488.46	36.69%	61.73%	+15.17	3-6
1957-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-18	1458.05	1505.79	36.41%	62.02%	-7.57	3-7
1957-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-42	1450.48	1487.68	37.81%	60.59%	-11.34	3-8
1957-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1439.14	1497.12	35.06%	63.38%	-5.56	3-9
1957-09-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-13	1497.42	1491.63	56.23%	42.13%	+5.05	1-0
1957-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1502.47	1472.86	47.15%	51.18%	-4.88	1-1
1957-10-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-10	1497.59	1507.16	41.60%	56.76%	-4.32	1-2
1957-10-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 26-34	1493.27	1493.09	42.96%	55.39%	-7.28	1-3
1957-10-27	Detroit Lions	W 35-17	1485.99	1516.83	51.01%	47.32%	+12.01	2-3
1957-11-03	Chicago Bears	L 10-16	1498.00	1495.13	55.82%	42.53%	-8.16	2-4
1957-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-24	1489.84	1505.21	53.22%	45.11%	+9.74	3-4
1957-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-27	1499.58	1448.64	50.21%	48.12%	+5.76	4-4
1957-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-45	1505.34	1555.39	36.10%	62.33%	-8.11	4-5
1957-12-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-31	1497.23	1528.42	38.63%	59.77%	-9.55	4-6
1957-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 42-17	1487.68	1450.48	60.59%	37.81%	+11.34	5-6
1957-12-15	Baltimore Colts	W 37-21	1499.02	1532.04	50.69%	47.63%	+11.40	6-6
1957-09-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-6	1519.80	1516.62	43.39%	54.96%	-4.50	0-1
1957-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1515.30	1486.58	47.02%	51.31%	+6.13	1-1
1957-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1521.43	1503.60	45.46%	52.87%	+6.32	2-1
1957-10-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-0	1527.75	1498.25	59.54%	38.85%	+13.79	3-1
1957-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 14-31	1541.54	1478.83	64.01%	34.45%	-15.73	3-2
1957-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1525.81	1464.84	51.65%	46.68%	+10.46	4-2
1957-11-10	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-14	1536.27	1483.86	62.64%	35.79%	+7.74	5-2
1957-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-0	1544.01	1479.00	64.31%	34.15%	+7.39	6-2
1957-11-24	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-21	1551.40	1476.12	53.70%	44.64%	+7.07	7-2
1957-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-27	1558.47	1478.72	66.21%	32.29%	-12.47	7-3
1957-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1546.00	1470.77	53.69%	44.65%	-10.63	7-4
1957-12-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-34	1535.37	1562.57	51.53%	46.80%	-7.54	7-5
1957-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-17	1491.63	1497.42	42.13%	56.23%	-5.05	0-1
1957-10-05	New York Giants	L 20-24	1486.58	1515.30	51.31%	47.02%	-6.13	0-2
1957-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1480.45	1531.52	35.97%	62.47%	-8.90	0-3
1957-10-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1471.55	1540.42	45.55%	52.78%	+9.97	1-3
1957-10-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-6	1481.52	1484.47	42.52%	55.83%	-6.24	1-4
1957-11-03	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 38-21	1475.28	1498.28	39.74%	58.64%	+14.42	2-4
1957-11-10	Detroit Lions	L 16-27	1489.70	1499.59	54.01%	44.33%	-10.70	2-5
1957-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 0-13	1479.00	1544.01	34.15%	64.31%	-7.38	2-6
1957-11-24	Washington Redskins	W 21-12	1471.62	1483.88	53.67%	44.67%	+8.02	3-6
1957-12-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 7-6	1479.64	1473.29	56.31%	42.05%	+2.52	4-6
1957-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-42	1482.16	1487.81	42.15%	56.21%	-14.94	4-7
1957-12-14	Chicago Cardinals	L 27-31	1467.22	1450.49	57.77%	40.60%	-6.89	4-8
1957-09-29	Washington Redskins	W 28-7	1488.58	1498.82	53.96%	44.38%	+12.18	1-0
1957-10-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 12-23	1500.76	1521.12	52.51%	45.82%	-10.41	1-1
1957-10-13	Chicago Cardinals	W 29-20	1490.35	1497.58	54.39%	43.96%	+7.90	2-1
1957-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 0-35	1498.25	1527.75	38.85%	59.54%	-13.78	2-2
1957-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-0	1484.47	1481.52	55.83%	42.52%	+6.24	3-2
1957-11-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 19-13	1490.71	1512.27	39.94%	58.44%	+8.54	4-2
1957-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-24	1499.25	1544.72	36.71%	61.71%	-10.79	4-3
1957-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 10-27	1488.46	1442.88	61.73%	36.69%	-15.17	4-4
1957-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-7	1473.29	1479.64	42.05%	56.31%	-2.52	4-5
1957-12-07	New York Giants	W 21-10	1470.77	1546.00	44.65%	53.69%	+10.64	5-5
1957-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-10	1481.41	1502.75	39.97%	58.41%	-6.34	5-6
1957-12-22	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 27-2	1475.07	1457.38	45.44%	52.89%	+15.79	6-6
1957-09-29	Chicago Cardinals	L 10-20	1482.73	1504.67	52.29%	46.05%	-9.87	0-1
1957-10-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1472.86	1502.47	51.18%	47.15%	+4.88	1-1
1957-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1477.74	1500.07	39.83%	58.54%	+6.99	2-1
1957-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1484.73	1468.29	45.26%	53.07%	+10.02	3-1
1957-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1494.75	1500.37	54.62%	43.73%	+5.24	4-1
1957-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 35-31	1499.99	1504.82	54.73%	43.62%	+5.22	5-1
1957-11-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-37	1505.21	1489.84	45.11%	53.22%	-9.73	5-2
1957-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-31	1495.48	1510.29	40.87%	57.50%	-11.23	5-3
1957-11-24	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-27	1484.25	1522.89	37.62%	60.79%	-5.53	5-4
1957-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 27-17	1478.72	1558.47	32.29%	66.21%	+12.47	6-4
1957-12-08	Baltimore Colts	W 17-13	1491.19	1537.97	48.71%	49.61%	+5.93	7-4
1957-12-15	Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1497.12	1439.14	63.38%	35.06%	+5.57	8-4
1957-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1498.82	1488.58	44.38%	53.96%	-12.18	0-1
1957-10-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 37-14	1486.64	1514.55	39.07%	59.32%	+16.96	1-1
1957-10-13	New York Giants	L 20-24	1503.60	1521.43	52.87%	45.46%	-6.31	1-2
1957-10-20	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-44	1497.29	1489.69	56.49%	41.87%	-18.46	1-3
1957-10-27	@ New York Giants	W 31-14	1478.83	1541.54	34.45%	64.01%	+15.72	2-3
1957-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1494.55	1540.32	36.67%	61.75%	-4.40	2-4
1957-11-10	Baltimore Colts	L 17-21	1490.15	1503.73	53.48%	44.86%	-6.39	2-5
1957-11-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 30-30	1483.76	1555.50	45.14%	53.20%	+0.12	2-5
1957-11-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 12-21	1483.88	1471.62	44.67%	53.67%	-8.03	2-6
1957-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 14-3	1475.85	1511.99	37.96%	60.45%	+11.96	3-6
1957-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-7	1487.81	1482.16	56.21%	42.15%	+14.94	4-6
1957-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-3	1502.75	1481.41	58.41%	39.97%	+6.34	5-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1957-12-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-59	1570.11	1539.54	48.12%	51.88%	-18.98	0-1
1957-12-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-27	1533.44	1502.69	48.14%	51.86%	+6.10	1-0
1957-12-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 59-14	1539.54	1570.11	51.88%	48.12%	+18.98	2-0
1957-12-22	Detroit Lions	L 27-31	1502.69	1533.44	51.86%	48.14%	-6.10	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1957-12-01	32.29%	San Francisco 49ers	1478.72	27	@ New York Giants	1558.47	17
2	1957-10-27	34.45%	Washington Redskins	1478.83	31	@ New York Giants	1541.54	14
3	1957-10-27	34.73%	Green Bay Packers	1458.27	24	@ Baltimore Colts	1518.84	21
4	1957-11-24	36.69%	Green Bay Packers	1442.88	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1488.46	10
5	1957-12-01	37.96%	Washington Redskins	1475.85	14	@ Chicago Bears	1511.99	3
6	1957-10-06	39.07%	Washington Redskins	1486.64	37	@ Chicago Cardinals	1514.55	14
7	1957-11-24	39.43%	Chicago Bears	1496.27	27	@ Detroit Lions	1521.52	7
8	1957-11-03	39.74%	Philadelphia Eagles	1475.28	38	@ Chicago Cardinals	1498.28	21
9	1957-10-13	39.83%	San Francisco 49ers	1477.74	21	@ Chicago Bears	1500.07	17
10	1957-11-03	39.94%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1490.71	19	@ Baltimore Colts	1512.27	13
11	1957-12-14	40.60%	Chicago Cardinals	1450.49	31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1467.22	27
12	1957-10-20	41.87%	Chicago Cardinals	1489.69	44	@ Washington Redskins	1497.29	14
13	1957-11-03	42.53%	Chicago Bears	1495.13	16	@ Los Angeles Rams	1498.00	10
14	1957-11-17	43.09%	Baltimore Colts	1510.12	29	@ Chicago Bears	1509.04	14
15	1957-10-06	43.15%	Detroit Lions	1496.74	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1495.19	14
16	1957-11-10	44.33%	Detroit Lions	1499.59	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1489.70	16
17	1957-12-07	44.65%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1470.77	21	New York Giants	1546.00	10
18	1957-11-10	44.86%	Baltimore Colts	1503.73	21	@ Washington Redskins	1490.15	17
19	1957-12-15	45.21%	Detroit Lions	1524.47	21	@ Chicago Bears	1508.41	13
20	1957-10-20	45.26%	San Francisco 49ers	1484.73	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1468.29	14
21	1957-12-22	45.44%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1475.07	27	@ Chicago Cardinals	1457.38	2
22	1957-10-13	45.46%	New York Giants	1521.43	24	@ Washington Redskins	1503.60	20
23	1957-10-20	45.55%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1471.55	17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1540.42	7
24	1957-10-05	45.82%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1521.12	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1500.76	12
25	1957-09-29	46.05%	Chicago Cardinals	1504.67	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1482.73	10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1957-12-29 *	18.98	@ Detroit Lions	59	1539.54	51.88%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1570.11	48.12%
2	1957-10-20	18.46	Chicago Cardinals	44	1489.69	41.87%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1497.29	56.49%
3	1957-10-06	16.97	Washington Redskins	37	1486.64	39.07%	@ Chicago Cardinals	14	1514.55	59.32%
4	1957-10-13	16.49	Baltimore Colts	45	1507.72	46.19%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1484.78	52.14%
5	1957-12-22	15.80	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1475.07	45.44%	@ Chicago Cardinals	2	1457.38	52.89%
6	1957-10-27	15.73	Washington Redskins	31	1478.83	34.45%	@ New York Giants	14	1541.54	64.01%
7	1957-11-24	15.73	Chicago Bears	27	1496.27	39.43%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1521.52	58.95%
8	1957-11-24	15.17	Green Bay Packers	27	1442.88	36.69%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1488.46	61.73%
9	1957-12-08	14.94	@ Washington Redskins	42	1487.81	56.21%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1482.16	42.15%
10	1957-11-03	14.42	Philadelphia Eagles	38	1475.28	39.74%	@ Chicago Cardinals	21	1498.28	58.64%
11	1957-10-20	13.79	@ New York Giants	35	1527.75	59.54%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1498.25	38.85%
12	1957-11-17	12.77	Baltimore Colts	29	1510.12	43.09%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1509.04	55.26%
13	1957-12-01	12.47	San Francisco 49ers	27	1478.72	32.29%	@ New York Giants	17	1558.47	66.21%
14	1957-09-29	12.35	@ Baltimore Colts	34	1486.56	52.20%	Detroit Lions	14	1509.09	46.13%
15	1957-09-29	12.18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1488.58	53.96%	Washington Redskins	7	1498.82	44.38%
16	1957-10-27	12.01	@ Los Angeles Rams	35	1485.99	51.01%	Detroit Lions	17	1516.83	47.32%
17	1957-12-01	11.96	Washington Redskins	14	1475.85	37.96%	@ Chicago Bears	3	1511.99	60.45%
18	1957-12-15	11.40	@ Los Angeles Rams	37	1499.02	50.69%	Baltimore Colts	21	1532.04	47.63%
19	1957-12-08	11.34	@ Los Angeles Rams	42	1487.68	60.59%	Green Bay Packers	17	1450.48	37.81%
20	1957-11-17	11.23	@ Detroit Lions	31	1510.29	57.50%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1495.48	40.87%
21	1957-12-08	11.11	@ Detroit Lions	20	1513.36	46.77%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1573.67	51.56%
22	1957-11-10	10.79	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1544.72	61.71%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1499.25	36.71%
23	1957-11-10	10.70	Detroit Lions	27	1499.59	44.33%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	16	1489.70	54.01%
24	1957-12-07	10.64	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1470.77	44.65%	New York Giants	10	1546.00	53.69%
25	1957-11-03	10.46	New York Giants	31	1525.81	51.65%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1464.84	46.68%