1946 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

7th Title

Last Title: 1943

Runner-Up

New York Giants

8th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1944

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.15 wins above expected

8 wins · 6.35 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

3.42 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.42 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	7	3	1	.682	-	236	162	+74	6.28	+1.22
2	Philadelphia Eagles	6	5	0	.545	1.5	231	220	+11	6.05	-0.05
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	5	1	.500	2	136	117	+19	5.20	+0.30
4	Washington Redskins	5	5	1	.500	2	171	191	-20	6.33	-0.83
5	Boston Yanks	2	8	1	.227	5	189	273	-84	3.79	-1.29

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	8	2	1	.773	-	289	193	+96	6.35	+2.15
2	Los Angeles Rams	6	4	1	.591	2	277	257	+20	6.20	+0.30
3	Green Bay Packers	6	5	0	.545	2.5	148	158	-10	5.81	+0.19
4	Chicago Cardinals	6	5	0	.545	2.5	260	198	+62	4.58	+1.42
5	Detroit Lions	1	10	0	.091	7.5	142	310	-168	4.42	-3.42

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 24

New York Giants 14

Dec 15

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1591	8.5	6.35	+2.15	94.46%	3	5	6	7	9	11
New York Giants	East	1586	7.5	6.28	+1.22	83.68%	3	5	6	7	9	11
Los Angeles Rams	West	1557	6.5	6.20	+0.30	65.72%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Chicago Cardinals	West	1534	6	4.58	+1.42	92.14%	2	3	4	5	7	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1533	6	6.05	-0.05	69.26%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1522	6	5.81	+0.19	74.04%	3	4	5	7	8	11
Washington Redskins	East	1499	5.5	6.33	-0.83	38.35%	3	5	6	7	9	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1464	5.5	5.20	+0.30	66.61%	2	4	5	6	7	11
Boston Yanks	East	1383	2.5	3.79	-1.29	27.38%	1	2	3	4	6	10
Detroit Lions	West	1332	1	4.42	-3.42	4.11%	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Boston Yanks	—	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Boston Yanks	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Yanks	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.82%	2.73%	0.91%	0.91%	—	0.91%	7.27%
7–13	1.82%	7.27%	7.27%	0.91%	3.64%	—	—	20.91%
14–20	2.73%	7.27%	9.09%	5.45%	2.73%	4.55%	0.91%	32.73%
21–27	0.91%	0.91%	5.45%	1.82%	2.73%	0.91%	1.82%	14.55%
28–34	0.91%	3.64%	2.73%	2.73%	3.64%	0.91%	—	14.55%
35–41	—	—	4.55%	0.91%	0.91%	—	—	6.36%
42+	0.91%	—	0.91%	1.82%	—	—	—	3.64%
Total	7.27%	20.91%	32.73%	14.55%	14.55%	6.36%	3.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.90	18.90	+0.00
SD	11.13	11.13	15.42
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	49	49	+36
Min	0	0	-36

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	9.09%	36.36%	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Boston Yanks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.18	24.82	-7.64
SD	12.80	12.06	16.92
CV	0.75	0.49	—
Max	40	49	+24
Min	0	10	-26

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	36.36%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.27	17.55	+8.73
SD	12.91	9.25	14.40
CV	0.49	0.53	—
Max	45	35	+36
Min	0	6	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
21–27	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	9.09%	54.55%	—	27.27%	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.64	18.00	+5.64
SD	10.98	8.54	14.79
CV	0.46	0.47	—
Max	36	34	+24
Min	7	6	-17

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	27.27%	—	54.55%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.91	28.18	-15.27
SD	6.79	14.44	13.05
CV	0.53	0.51	—
Max	24	45	+10
Min	0	7	-36

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	36.36%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	54.55%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	54.55%	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.45	14.36	-0.91
SD	5.59	11.99	13.99
CV	0.42	0.83	—
Max	20	38	+13
Min	6	0	-23

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	27.27%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	45.45%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.18	23.36	+1.82
SD	10.14	8.37	15.83
CV	0.40	0.36	—
Max	41	40	+21
Min	10	14	-24

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
14–20	18.18%	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
28–34	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	—	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.45	14.73	+6.73
SD	10.71	12.54	14.51
CV	0.50	0.85	—
Max	45	31	+31
Min	7	0	-10

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
21–27	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
42+	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	—	18.18%	36.36%	36.36%	—	—	9.09%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	20.00	+1.00
SD	13.85	10.46	16.62
CV	0.66	0.52	—
Max	49	45	+26
Min	7	7	-28

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	63.64%	36.36%	—	—	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.36	10.64	+1.73
SD	8.33	4.61	10.48
CV	0.67	0.43	—
Max	33	17	+26
Min	0	7	-10

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	9.09%	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	9.09%	54.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.55	17.36	-1.82
SD	8.31	7.62	12.80
CV	0.53	0.44	—
Max	27	31	+17
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 11

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.39	+0.2
Allowed	0.43	-0.2
Differential	0.91	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	8.5	6.35	+2.15
2	Chicago Cardinals	6	4.58	+1.42
3	New York Giants	7.5	6.28	+1.22
4	Los Angeles Rams	6.5	6.20	+0.30
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	5.5	5.20	+0.30

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	1	4.42	-3.42
2	Boston Yanks	2.5	3.79	-1.29
3	Washington Redskins	5.5	6.33	-0.83
4	Philadelphia Eagles	6	6.05	-0.05
5	Green Bay Packers	6	5.81	+0.19

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	4	Nov 3 – Nov 24	1 in 11
2	Boston Yanks	2	Nov 24 – Nov 28	1 in 10
3	Green Bay Packers	3	Oct 13 – Oct 27	1 in 10
4	Los Angeles Rams	2	Dec 1 – Dec 8	1 in 7
5	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 6 – Oct 20	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	6	Sep 30 – Nov 3	1 in 59
2	Boston Yanks	7	Oct 1 – Nov 10	1 in 32
3	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Nov 10 – Nov 24	1 in 13
4	Washington Redskins	2	Oct 27 – Nov 3	1 in 7
5	Green Bay Packers	2	Sep 29 – Oct 6	1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	30.60%	26.04%	21.32%	15.17%	6.88%
New York Giants	29.95%	26.01%	21.43%	15.48%	7.12%
Philadelphia Eagles	24.76%	24.68%	23.01%	18.30%	9.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.31%	17.58%	22.63%	27.92%	19.55%
Boston Yanks	2.38%	5.69%	11.61%	23.13%	57.20%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	34.09%	26.32%	19.67%	12.78%	7.13%
Los Angeles Rams	30.74%	26.12%	20.51%	14.26%	8.37%
Green Bay Packers	21.91%	23.71%	23.13%	18.55%	12.71%
Chicago Cardinals	7.56%	12.67%	18.83%	26.78%	34.16%
Detroit Lions	5.70%	11.18%	17.87%	27.64%	37.62%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Chicago Bears	17.83%	15.36%	13.79%	12.38%	10.73%	9.31%	7.78%	6.03%	4.46%	2.34%
Washington Redskins	16.90%	15.05%	13.52%	12.40%	11.08%	9.78%	7.97%	6.40%	4.25%	2.65%
New York Giants	16.61%	14.41%	14.07%	11.95%	11.29%	9.54%	8.31%	6.71%	4.40%	2.72%
Los Angeles Rams	14.57%	15.10%	13.21%	12.89%	10.89%	10.05%	8.32%	6.84%	5.03%	3.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.76%	12.42%	12.75%	11.66%	11.73%	10.78%	9.63%	8.07%	5.67%	3.52%
Green Bay Packers	9.96%	11.69%	11.27%	12.18%	11.57%	11.53%	10.10%	9.22%	7.81%	4.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.34%	7.09%	8.58%	9.65%	11.00%	11.71%	12.71%	13.06%	11.12%	9.75%
Chicago Cardinals	2.51%	4.18%	5.76%	6.89%	8.51%	10.43%	12.48%	14.56%	17.57%	17.09%
Detroit Lions	1.75%	3.27%	4.66%	6.42%	8.05%	9.93%	12.63%	15.38%	18.18%	19.74%
Boston Yanks	0.76%	1.44%	2.39%	3.59%	5.14%	6.94%	10.06%	13.74%	21.51%	34.43%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	30.60%	69.40%
New York Giants	29.95%	70.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	24.76%	75.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.31%	87.69%
Boston Yanks	2.38%	97.62%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	34.09%	65.91%
Los Angeles Rams	30.74%	69.26%
Green Bay Packers	21.91%	78.09%
Chicago Cardinals	7.56%	92.44%
Detroit Lions	5.70%	94.30%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+7.27%

Clear Edge

50.91%5.45%43.64%

Elo Value

Home Edge

39 Elo

0.026 points per Elo point

025.31100

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.05 points

Lean Road

-8+0.65+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.0

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

19%

Chicago Bears, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

47.0%

Tough Road

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.28 · As Expected: 1.28 to 1.76 · Elevated: 1.76 to 2.4 · High Variance: 2.4 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.96 · Close: 1.96 to 2.65 · Off Target: 2.65 to 3.46 · Well Off Target: 3.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.5 · As Expected: 0.5 to 1.2 · Several Outliers: 1.2 to 2.2 · Many Outliers: 2.2 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.01 · As Expected: 1.01 to 1.69 · More Than Expected: 1.69 to 2.7 · Far More Than Expected: 2.7 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.50 wins

As Expected

01.604

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

Pinpoint

02.315

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.46%

Chicago Bears

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.11%

Detroit Lions

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

As Expected

01.010

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.57

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

61%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Lopsided

50%83%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Routine

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.23

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.14

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

40%

Upset-Prone

0%36%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

33%

Shaky Favorites

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 · Within Noise: 0.1 to 0.2 · Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.39 · Well Above Noise: 0.39 and up.

Probability calibration

0.77

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.83

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.062

Well Within Noise

00.1960.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	34.09%	19.04%
New York Giants	29.95%	17.74%
Los Angeles Rams	30.74%	15.53%
Washington Redskins	30.60%	14.32%
Philadelphia Eagles	24.76%	12.88%
Green Bay Packers	21.91%	9.93%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.31%	5.09%
Chicago Cardinals	7.56%	3.52%
Detroit Lions	5.70%	1.20%
Boston Yanks	2.38%	0.76%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Boston Yanks	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Boston Yanks	25.8%0.93%	32.7%0.15%	65.3%0.10%	38.3%0.58%	30.6%0.61%
New York Giants	52.1%9.92%	61.7%1.97%	83.9%1.91%	62.4%7.49%	58.5%8.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	45.0%8.45%	55.8%2.12%	79.5%1.65%	55.3%5.25%	50.3%7.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.5%4.74%	44.6%0.79%	71.8%0.55%	44.3%2.32%	40.4%3.91%
Washington Redskins	40.9%10.05%	49.2%2.52%	75.6%1.49%	50.2%6.26%	45.8%10.28%
Chicago Bears						74.2%0.93%	47.9%9.92%	55.0%8.45%	63.5%4.74%	59.1%10.05%
Chicago Cardinals						67.3%0.15%	38.3%1.97%	44.2%2.12%	55.4%0.79%	50.8%2.52%
Detroit Lions						34.7%0.10%	16.1%1.91%	20.5%1.65%	28.2%0.55%	24.4%1.49%
Green Bay Packers						61.7%0.58%	37.6%7.49%	44.7%5.25%	55.7%2.32%	49.8%6.26%
Los Angeles Rams						69.4%0.61%	41.5%8.65%	49.7%7.28%	59.6%3.91%	54.2%10.28%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	52.98%
Chicago Bears	47.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
New York Giants	53.0%100.00%
Chicago Bears		47.0%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New York Giants 52.98% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.98%

Chicago Bears 47.02% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.02%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1946-10-01	New York Giants	L 0-17	1453.72	1501.21	43.33%	49.68%	-25.93	0-1
1946-10-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-49	1427.79	1570.53	25.25%	69.01%	-18.12	0-2
1946-10-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-16	1409.67	1449.51	37.45%	55.75%	-16.41	0-3
1946-10-20	Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1393.26	1560.65	28.04%	65.88%	-11.63	0-4
1946-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-33	1381.63	1448.88	40.58%	52.49%	-30.13	0-5
1946-11-03	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-28	1351.50	1488.07	31.61%	61.97%	-17.34	0-6
1946-11-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1334.16	1536.22	19.62%	75.46%	-4.95	0-7
1946-11-17	@ New York Giants	T 28-28	1329.21	1571.69	16.38%	79.30%	+2.18	0-7
1946-11-24	Los Angeles Rams	W 40-21	1331.39	1541.48	23.55%	70.92%	+43.51	1-7
1946-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-10	1374.90	1382.31	41.85%	51.18%	+35.99	2-7
1946-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-40	1410.89	1505.88	36.85%	56.38%	-27.46	2-8
1946-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-7	1490.33	1528.95	37.61%	55.58%	+38.06	1-0
1946-10-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-17	1528.39	1439.91	55.47%	37.71%	+22.71	2-0
1946-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	T 28-28	1551.10	1549.18	50.40%	42.62%	-0.27	2-0
1946-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1550.83	1556.74	49.28%	43.72%	+16.78	3-0
1946-10-27	@ New York Giants	L 0-14	1567.61	1528.04	48.54%	44.45%	-26.16	3-1
1946-11-03	Green Bay Packers	W 10-7	1541.45	1534.58	51.11%	41.93%	+10.56	4-1
1946-11-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-21	1552.01	1549.89	43.19%	49.82%	+17.55	5-1
1946-11-17	Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1569.56	1541.17	54.15%	38.98%	+11.37	6-1
1946-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 42-6	1580.93	1401.26	73.14%	21.62%	+18.94	7-1
1946-12-01	Chicago Cardinals	L 28-35	1599.87	1510.13	62.46%	31.16%	-23.45	7-2
1946-12-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 45-24	1576.42	1346.33	73.12%	21.64%	+14.48	8-2
1946-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1417.09	1443.63	39.23%	53.89%	-15.13	0-1
1946-09-30	Detroit Lions	W 34-14	1401.96	1521.07	33.76%	59.66%	+37.95	1-1
1946-10-06	Chicago Bears	L 17-34	1439.91	1528.39	37.71%	55.47%	-22.71	1-2
1946-10-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 36-14	1417.20	1477.89	34.74%	58.61%	+39.14	2-2
1946-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 24-28	1456.34	1517.90	34.63%	58.73%	-10.14	2-3
1946-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-10	1446.20	1568.75	33.33%	60.12%	+41.87	3-3
1946-11-03	@ Boston Yanks	W 28-14	1488.07	1351.50	61.97%	31.61%	+17.34	4-3
1946-11-10	Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1505.41	1524.02	47.46%	45.53%	-23.71	4-4
1946-11-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-17	1481.70	1532.35	36.03%	57.24%	-9.13	4-5
1946-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-6	1472.57	1561.86	31.21%	62.40%	+37.56	5-5
1946-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1510.13	1599.87	31.16%	62.46%	+23.45	6-5
1946-09-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 14-34	1521.07	1401.96	59.66%	33.76%	-37.95	0-1
1946-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-17	1483.12	1535.97	35.75%	57.54%	-5.23	0-2
1946-10-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 14-36	1477.89	1417.20	58.61%	34.74%	-39.13	0-3
1946-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-35	1438.76	1549.44	28.72%	65.13%	-19.31	0-4
1946-10-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-10	1419.45	1527.19	29.06%	64.76%	-7.38	0-5
1946-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-41	1412.07	1526.88	34.30%	59.08%	-23.02	0-6
1946-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-7	1389.05	1499.43	34.86%	58.48%	+26.33	1-6
1946-11-17	Green Bay Packers	L 0-9	1415.38	1547.73	32.12%	61.42%	-14.12	1-7
1946-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-42	1401.26	1580.93	21.62%	73.14%	-18.95	1-8
1946-11-28	Boston Yanks	L 10-34	1382.31	1374.90	51.18%	41.85%	-35.98	1-9
1946-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 24-45	1346.33	1576.42	21.64%	73.12%	-14.48	1-10
1946-09-29	Chicago Bears	L 7-30	1528.95	1490.33	55.58%	37.61%	-38.06	0-1
1946-10-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-21	1490.89	1536.54	43.59%	49.41%	-12.65	0-2
1946-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-7	1478.24	1588.65	28.75%	65.09%	+31.91	1-2
1946-10-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-7	1510.15	1465.92	56.36%	36.87%	+17.04	2-2
1946-10-27	Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1527.19	1419.45	64.76%	29.06%	+7.39	3-2
1946-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1534.58	1541.45	41.93%	51.11%	-10.56	3-3
1946-11-10	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 19-7	1524.02	1505.41	45.53%	47.46%	+23.71	4-3
1946-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 9-0	1547.73	1415.38	61.42%	32.12%	+14.13	5-3
1946-11-24	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-24	1561.86	1472.57	62.40%	31.21%	-37.56	5-4
1946-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-7	1524.30	1559.13	38.11%	55.05%	+28.36	6-4
1946-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-38	1552.66	1525.66	46.74%	46.25%	-30.92	6-5
1946-09-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-25	1561.43	1545.64	52.37%	40.70%	-24.89	0-1
1946-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-17	1536.54	1490.89	49.41%	43.59%	+12.64	1-1
1946-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	T 28-28	1549.18	1551.10	42.62%	50.40%	+0.26	1-1
1946-10-20	Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1549.44	1438.76	65.13%	28.72%	+19.31	2-1
1946-10-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 10-34	1568.75	1446.20	60.12%	33.33%	-41.87	2-2
1946-11-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-20	1526.88	1412.07	59.08%	34.30%	+23.01	3-2
1946-11-10	Chicago Bears	L 21-27	1549.89	1552.01	49.82%	43.19%	-17.54	3-3
1946-11-17	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-14	1532.35	1481.70	57.24%	36.03%	+9.13	4-3
1946-11-24	@ Boston Yanks	L 21-40	1541.48	1331.39	70.92%	23.55%	-43.52	4-4
1946-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 31-21	1497.96	1581.89	31.86%	61.71%	+27.70	5-4
1946-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 38-17	1525.66	1552.66	46.25%	46.74%	+30.92	6-4
1946-10-01	@ Boston Yanks	W 17-0	1501.21	1453.72	49.68%	43.33%	+25.92	1-0
1946-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1527.13	1459.74	52.51%	40.56%	+10.23	2-0
1946-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1537.36	1541.20	42.35%	50.67%	-19.46	2-1
1946-10-20	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-24	1517.90	1456.34	58.73%	34.63%	+10.14	3-1
1946-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 14-0	1528.04	1567.61	44.45%	48.54%	+26.16	4-1
1946-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1554.20	1555.60	42.69%	50.33%	-19.61	4-2
1946-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-17	1534.59	1575.21	44.30%	48.69%	+37.10	5-2
1946-11-17	Boston Yanks	T 28-28	1571.69	1329.21	79.30%	16.38%	-2.18	5-2
1946-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 7-0	1569.51	1486.05	61.64%	31.91%	+12.38	6-2
1946-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-31	1581.89	1497.96	61.71%	31.86%	-27.70	6-3
1946-12-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-0	1554.19	1530.77	53.45%	39.65%	+32.18	7-3
1946-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 25-14	1545.64	1561.43	40.70%	52.37%	+24.89	1-0
1946-10-06	Boston Yanks	W 49-25	1570.53	1427.79	69.01%	25.25%	+18.12	2-0
1946-10-13	Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1588.65	1478.24	65.09%	28.75%	-31.91	2-1
1946-10-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-21	1556.74	1550.83	43.72%	49.28%	-16.77	2-2
1946-10-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 28-24	1539.97	1572.28	38.45%	54.70%	+15.63	3-2
1946-11-03	New York Giants	W 24-14	1555.60	1554.20	50.33%	42.69%	+19.61	4-2
1946-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 17-45	1575.21	1534.59	48.69%	44.30%	-37.10	4-3
1946-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-10	1538.11	1473.10	52.18%	40.89%	-12.95	4-4
1946-11-24	Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1525.16	1529.80	49.46%	43.54%	-29.33	4-5
1946-12-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1495.83	1473.67	53.27%	39.82%	+10.05	5-5
1946-12-08	@ Boston Yanks	W 40-14	1505.88	1410.89	56.38%	36.85%	+27.46	6-5
1946-09-20	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-7	1443.63	1417.09	53.89%	39.23%	+15.14	1-0
1946-09-29	@ Washington Redskins	T 14-14	1458.77	1536.94	32.56%	60.95%	+0.97	1-0
1946-10-06	New York Giants	L 14-17	1459.74	1527.13	40.56%	52.51%	-10.23	1-1
1946-10-13	Boston Yanks	W 16-7	1449.51	1409.67	55.75%	37.45%	+16.41	2-1
1946-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1465.92	1510.15	36.87%	56.36%	-17.04	2-2
1946-10-27	@ Boston Yanks	W 33-7	1448.88	1381.63	52.49%	40.58%	+30.13	3-2
1946-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1479.01	1556.65	39.16%	53.96%	+20.42	4-2
1946-11-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1499.43	1389.05	58.48%	34.86%	-26.33	4-3
1946-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1473.10	1538.11	40.89%	52.18%	+12.95	5-3
1946-11-24	@ New York Giants	L 0-7	1486.05	1569.51	31.91%	61.64%	-12.38	5-4
1946-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1473.67	1495.83	39.82%	53.27%	-10.05	5-5
1946-09-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 14-14	1536.94	1458.77	60.95%	32.56%	-0.97	0-0
1946-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 17-16	1535.97	1483.12	57.54%	35.75%	+5.23	1-0
1946-10-13	New York Giants	W 24-14	1541.20	1537.36	50.67%	42.35%	+19.45	2-0
1946-10-20	@ Boston Yanks	W 14-6	1560.65	1393.26	65.88%	28.04%	+11.63	3-0
1946-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1572.28	1539.97	54.70%	38.45%	-15.63	3-1
1946-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1556.65	1479.01	53.96%	39.16%	-20.43	3-2
1946-11-10	Boston Yanks	W 17-14	1536.22	1334.16	75.46%	19.62%	+4.95	4-2
1946-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-24	1541.17	1569.56	38.98%	54.15%	-11.37	4-3
1946-11-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1529.80	1525.16	43.54%	49.46%	+29.33	5-3
1946-12-01	Green Bay Packers	L 7-20	1559.13	1524.30	55.05%	38.11%	-28.36	5-4
1946-12-08	@ New York Giants	L 0-31	1530.77	1554.19	39.65%	53.45%	-32.18	5-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1946-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 24-14	1590.90	1586.37	47.01%	52.99%	+22.51	1-0
1946-12-15	Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1586.37	1590.90	52.99%	47.01%	-22.50	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1946-11-24	23.55%	@ Boston Yanks	1331.39	40	Los Angeles Rams	1541.48	21
2	1946-10-13	28.75%	Green Bay Packers	1478.24	19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1588.65	7
3	1946-12-01	31.16%	Chicago Cardinals	1510.13	35	@ Chicago Bears	1599.87	28
4	1946-11-24	31.21%	Chicago Cardinals	1472.57	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1561.86	6
5	1946-12-01	31.86%	Los Angeles Rams	1497.96	31	@ New York Giants	1581.89	21
6	1946-10-27	33.33%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1446.20	34	Los Angeles Rams	1568.75	10
7	1946-09-30	33.76%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1401.96	34	Detroit Lions	1521.07	14
8	1946-10-13	34.74%	Chicago Cardinals	1417.20	36	@ Detroit Lions	1477.89	14
9	1946-11-10	34.86%	@ Detroit Lions	1389.05	17	Pittsburgh Steelers	1499.43	7
10	1946-09-29	37.61%	Chicago Bears	1490.33	30	@ Green Bay Packers	1528.95	7
11	1946-12-01	38.11%	Green Bay Packers	1524.30	20	@ Washington Redskins	1559.13	7
12	1946-10-27	38.45%	Philadelphia Eagles	1539.97	28	@ Washington Redskins	1572.28	24
13	1946-11-03	39.16%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1479.01	14	Washington Redskins	1556.65	7
14	1946-09-29	40.70%	Philadelphia Eagles	1545.64	25	@ Los Angeles Rams	1561.43	14
15	1946-11-17	40.89%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1473.10	10	Philadelphia Eagles	1538.11	7
16	1946-11-28	41.85%	Boston Yanks	1374.90	34	@ Detroit Lions	1382.31	10
17	1946-11-10	43.19%	Chicago Bears	1552.01	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1549.89	21
18	1946-11-24	43.54%	Washington Redskins	1529.80	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1525.16	10
19	1946-11-10	44.30%	@ New York Giants	1534.59	45	Philadelphia Eagles	1575.21	17
20	1946-10-27	44.45%	@ New York Giants	1528.04	14	Chicago Bears	1567.61	0
21	1946-11-10	45.53%	Green Bay Packers	1524.02	19	@ Chicago Cardinals	1505.41	7
22	1946-12-08	46.25%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1525.66	38	Green Bay Packers	1552.66	17
23	1946-12-15 *	47.01%	Chicago Bears	1590.90	24	@ New York Giants	1586.37	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1946-11-24	43.52	@ Boston Yanks	40	1331.39	23.55%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1541.48	70.92%
2	1946-10-27	41.87	@ Chicago Cardinals	34	1446.20	33.33%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1568.75	60.12%
3	1946-10-13	39.14	Chicago Cardinals	36	1417.20	34.74%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1477.89	58.61%
4	1946-09-29	38.06	Chicago Bears	30	1490.33	37.61%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1528.95	55.58%
5	1946-09-30	37.95	@ Chicago Cardinals	34	1401.96	33.76%	Detroit Lions	14	1521.07	59.66%
6	1946-11-24	37.56	Chicago Cardinals	24	1472.57	31.21%	@ Green Bay Packers	6	1561.86	62.40%
7	1946-11-10	37.10	@ New York Giants	45	1534.59	44.30%	Philadelphia Eagles	17	1575.21	48.69%
8	1946-11-28	35.99	Boston Yanks	34	1374.90	41.85%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1382.31	51.18%
9	1946-12-08	32.18	@ New York Giants	31	1554.19	53.45%	Washington Redskins	0	1530.77	39.65%
10	1946-10-13	31.91	Green Bay Packers	19	1478.24	28.75%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1588.65	65.09%
11	1946-12-08	30.92	@ Los Angeles Rams	38	1525.66	46.25%	Green Bay Packers	17	1552.66	46.74%
12	1946-10-27	30.13	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	1448.88	52.49%	@ Boston Yanks	7	1381.63	40.58%
13	1946-11-24	29.33	Washington Redskins	27	1529.80	43.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1525.16	49.46%
14	1946-12-01	28.36	Green Bay Packers	20	1524.30	38.11%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1559.13	55.05%
15	1946-12-01	27.70	Los Angeles Rams	31	1497.96	31.86%	@ New York Giants	21	1581.89	61.71%
16	1946-12-08	27.46	Philadelphia Eagles	40	1505.88	56.38%	@ Boston Yanks	14	1410.89	36.85%
17	1946-11-10	26.33	@ Detroit Lions	17	1389.05	34.86%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1499.43	58.48%
18	1946-10-27	26.16	@ New York Giants	14	1528.04	44.45%	Chicago Bears	0	1567.61	48.54%
19	1946-10-01	25.93	New York Giants	17	1501.21	49.68%	@ Boston Yanks	0	1453.72	43.33%
20	1946-09-29	24.89	Philadelphia Eagles	25	1545.64	40.70%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1561.43	52.37%
21	1946-11-10	23.71	Green Bay Packers	19	1524.02	45.53%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1505.41	47.46%
22	1946-12-01	23.45	Chicago Cardinals	35	1510.13	31.16%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1599.87	62.46%
23	1946-11-03	23.02	Los Angeles Rams	41	1526.88	59.08%	@ Detroit Lions	20	1412.07	34.30%
24	1946-10-06	22.71	Chicago Bears	34	1528.39	55.47%	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1439.91	37.71%
25	1946-12-15 *	22.51	Chicago Bears	24	1590.90	47.01%	@ New York Giants	14	1586.37	52.99%