1940 NFL Season

55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

4th Title

Last Title: 1933

Runner-Up

Washington Redskins

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1937

Biggest Overachiever

Brooklyn Dodgers

3.33 wins above expected

8 wins · 4.67 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

1.83 wins below expected

1 wins · 2.83 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	9	2	0	.818	-	245	142	+103	8.46	+0.54
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	8	3	0	.727	1	186	120	+66	4.67	+3.33
3	New York Giants	6	4	1	.591	2.5	131	133	-2	6.96	-0.46
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	7	2	.273	6	60	178	-118	3.86	-0.86
5	Philadelphia Eagles	1	10	0	.091	8	111	211	-100	2.83	-1.83

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	8	3	0	.727	-	238	152	+86	7.34	+0.66
2	Green Bay Packers	6	4	1	.591	1.5	238	155	+83	7.42	-0.92
3	Detroit Lions	5	5	1	.500	2.5	138	153	-15	5.49	+0.01
4	Cleveland Rams	4	6	1	.409	3.5	171	191	-20	5.49	-0.99
5	Chicago Cardinals	2	7	2	.273	5	139	222	-83	2.48	+0.52

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 73

Washington Redskins 0

Dec 8

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	West	1713	8	7.34	+0.66	84.70%	1	5	6	7	8	9	11
Washington Redskins	East	1679	9	8.46	+0.54	82.90%	2	6	7	8	9	10	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1669	6.5	7.42	-0.92	31.26%	1	5	6	7	8	9	11
New York Giants	East	1551	6.5	6.96	-0.46	45.27%	0	4	6	7	8	9	11
Cleveland Rams	West	1521	4.5	5.49	-0.99	32.77%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1488	8	4.67	+3.33	99.84%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Detroit Lions	West	1486	5.5	5.49	+0.01	58.87%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
Chicago Cardinals	West	1337	3	2.48	+0.52	83.91%	0	0	1	2	3	4	9
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1301	3	3.86	-0.86	48.08%	0	1	3	4	4	6	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1256	1	2.83	-1.83	20.76%	0	1	2	3	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-
New York Giants	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	-	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Rams	Lions	Packers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Cleveland Rams	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	-
Detroit Lions	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	3.64%	8.18%	0.91%	3.64%	0.91%	—	—	17.27%
7–13	8.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	0.91%	2.73%	0.91%	30.91%
14–20	0.91%	4.55%	7.27%	4.55%	3.64%	—	0.91%	21.82%
21–27	3.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	1.82%	0.91%	0.91%	16.36%
28–34	0.91%	0.91%	3.64%	1.82%	—	—	—	7.27%
35–41	—	2.73%	—	0.91%	—	—	—	3.64%
42+	—	0.91%	0.91%	0.91%	—	—	—	2.73%
Total	17.27%	30.91%	21.82%	16.36%	7.27%	3.64%	2.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	15.06	+0.00
SD	10.99	10.99	15.09
CV	0.73	0.73	—
Max	50	50	+43
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 55

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
21–27	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.91	10.91	+6.00
SD	7.83	6.92	9.57
CV	0.46	0.63	—
Max	30	24	+21
Min	7	0	-9

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
14–20	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
28–34	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
35–41	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
42+	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	18.18%	36.36%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	13.82	+7.82
SD	15.06	8.17	12.42
CV	0.70	0.59	—
Max	47	25	+31
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
7–13	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%	—	—	27.27%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	36.36%	—	9.09%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.64	20.18	-7.55
SD	7.42	13.70	13.63
CV	0.59	0.68	—
Max	23	43	+14
Min	0	0	-29

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	27.27%
21–27	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	36.36%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	—	9.09%	100%

Cleveland Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.55	17.36	-1.82
SD	7.97	14.12	14.49
CV	0.51	0.81	—
Max	26	47	+24
Min	0	0	-22

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
7–13	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
14–20	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	18.18%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.55	13.91	-1.36
SD	13.06	14.44	19.76
CV	1.04	1.04	—
Max	43	50	+29
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
21–27	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	14.09	+7.55
SD	13.73	10.86	20.43
CV	0.63	0.77	—
Max	50	41	+43
Min	3	3	-31

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
7–13	18.18%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.91	12.09	-0.18
SD	6.99	10.09	10.89
CV	0.59	0.83	—
Max	21	37	+14
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
7–13	9.09%	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	36.36%
14–20	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	36.36%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.09	19.18	-9.09
SD	6.44	9.84	7.41
CV	0.64	0.51	—
Max	20	34	+7
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	27.27%	—	18.18%	—	—	—	45.45%
7–13	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	18.18%	—	54.55%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	54.55%	—	18.18%	—	18.18%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	5.45	16.18	-10.73
SD	4.34	12.67	12.30
CV	0.80	0.78	—
Max	10	40	+4
Min	0	3	-30

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
35–41	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.27	12.91	+9.36
SD	11.54	6.11	12.44
CV	0.52	0.47	—
Max	40	21	+30
Min	7	3	-14

Games Played: 11

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.64	+0.4
Allowed	0.73	-0.7
Differential	0.90	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Brooklyn Dodgers	8	4.67	+3.33
2	Chicago Bears	8	7.34	+0.66
3	Washington Redskins	9	8.46	+0.54
4	Chicago Cardinals	3	2.48	+0.52
5	Detroit Lions	5.5	5.49	+0.01

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	1	2.83	-1.83
2	Cleveland Rams	4.5	5.49	-0.99
3	Green Bay Packers	6.5	7.42	-0.92
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	3.86	-0.86
5	New York Giants	6.5	6.96	-0.46

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	Nov 10 – Dec 1	1 in 63
2	Chicago Bears	5	Oct 6 – Nov 3	1 in 9
3	Cleveland Rams	2	Nov 3 – Nov 10	1 in 7
4	Washington Redskins	7	Sep 15 – Nov 3	1 in 6
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	Sep 22 – Sep 22	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	9	Sep 15 – Nov 17	1 in 21
2	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	Sep 29 – Nov 3	1 in 10
3	Cleveland Rams	3	Sep 29 – Oct 13	1 in 5
4	Chicago Bears	2	Nov 10 – Nov 17	1 in 5
5	Washington Redskins	1	Nov 10 – Nov 10	1 in 4

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	74.02%	22.76%	2.81%	0.38%	0.03%
New York Giants	23.58%	57.26%	14.51%	3.90%	0.75%
Brooklyn Dodgers	1.87%	13.40%	45.79%	27.42%	11.52%
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.46%	5.12%	26.72%	42.54%	25.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	1.46%	10.17%	25.75%	62.54%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	45.95%	31.68%	15.78%	6.19%	0.40%
Chicago Bears	38.43%	34.76%	18.51%	7.75%	0.55%
Detroit Lions	8.09%	16.94%	31.95%	36.73%	6.29%
Cleveland Rams	7.47%	16.18%	31.32%	38.60%	6.42%
Chicago Cardinals	0.06%	0.44%	2.44%	10.73%	86.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Washington Redskins	47.67%	25.91%	13.44%	8.15%	2.83%	1.40%	0.40%	0.17%	0.03%	<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	17.41%	26.27%	20.50%	15.99%	10.77%	5.07%	2.88%	0.86%	0.20%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	16.77%	21.39%	21.31%	17.09%	12.59%	6.10%	3.47%	0.99%	0.24%	0.04%
New York Giants	13.40%	14.74%	22.20%	22.18%	12.23%	8.12%	4.12%	2.19%	0.65%	0.16%
Detroit Lions	2.43%	4.90%	9.05%	12.42%	19.91%	17.56%	17.71%	9.99%	4.08%	1.96%
Cleveland Rams	1.81%	5.00%	8.74%	12.49%	19.09%	17.62%	19.04%	10.44%	4.10%	1.65%
Brooklyn Dodgers	0.42%	1.39%	3.44%	7.64%	13.10%	22.66%	19.40%	17.99%	9.19%	4.76%
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.07%	0.30%	0.96%	2.83%	6.22%	13.74%	18.03%	28.45%	17.28%	12.13%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.07%	0.21%	0.79%	1.95%	5.15%	8.89%	17.69%	32.39%	32.85%
Chicago Cardinals	<0.01%	0.04%	0.13%	0.42%	1.31%	2.58%	6.06%	11.22%	31.84%	46.40%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	74.02%	25.98%
New York Giants	23.58%	76.42%
Brooklyn Dodgers	1.87%	98.13%
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.46%	99.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	99.92%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	45.95%	54.05%
Chicago Bears	38.43%	61.57%
Detroit Lions	8.09%	91.91%
Cleveland Rams	7.47%	92.53%
Chicago Cardinals	0.06%	99.94%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+30.91%

Fortress

61.82%7.27%30.91%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 111.02 Elo pts.

34 Elo

0.029 points per Elo point

0100

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.67 points

Lean Home

-8+3.24+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.1

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

17%

Chicago Bears, 3rd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

37.8%

Tough Road

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.13 · As Expected: 1.13 to 1.55 · Elevated: 1.55 to 2.11 · High Variance: 2.11 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 · Close: 1.09 to 1.48 · Off Target: 1.48 to 1.93 · Well Off Target: 1.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.5 · As Expected: 0.5 to 1.2 · Several Outliers: 1.2 to 2.2 · Many Outliers: 2.2 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1 · More Than Expected: 1 to 1.6 · Far More Than Expected: 1.6 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.35 wins

As Expected

01.414

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.30

01.293

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.84%

Brooklyn Dodgers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

20.76%

Philadelphia Eagles

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

As Expected

01.010

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.23

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

82%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

93%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

15%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

25%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.17

Highly Predictable

00.171

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.97

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.65

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Chalk Held

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Favorites Held

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 · Within Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.38 · Well Above Noise: 0.38 and up.

Probability calibration

0.49

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.87

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.110

Within Noise

00.1920.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	74.02%	50.37%
Green Bay Packers	45.95%	16.96%
Chicago Bears	38.43%	16.59%
New York Giants	23.58%	12.23%
Cleveland Rams	7.47%	1.51%
Detroit Lions	8.09%	1.44%
Brooklyn Dodgers	1.87%	0.80%
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.46%	0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	0.01%
Chicago Cardinals	0.06%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Rams	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Brooklyn Dodgers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates	Washington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers	34.6%0.78%		65.8%0.08%	72.2%0.16%	43.1%0.85%
New York Giants	44.5%9.51%	89.5%0.02%	71.0%1.63%	75.2%2.53%	49.7%9.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.2%0.04%		0.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	16.7%0.03%
Pittsburgh Pirates	18.9%0.22%		40.0%0.03%	30.0%0.02%	19.6%0.18%
Washington Redskins	62.0%27.88%	95.1%0.04%	82.7%5.73%	86.1%5.37%	67.6%35.00%
Chicago Bears						65.4%0.78%	55.5%9.51%	81.8%0.04%	81.1%0.22%	38.0%27.88%
Chicago Cardinals							10.5%0.02%			4.9%0.04%
Cleveland Rams						34.2%0.08%	29.0%1.63%	100.0%<0.01%	60.0%0.03%	17.3%5.73%
Detroit Lions						27.8%0.16%	24.8%2.53%	71.4%<0.01%	70.0%0.02%	13.9%5.37%
Green Bay Packers						56.9%0.85%	50.3%9.88%	83.3%0.03%	80.4%0.18%	32.4%35.00%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	62.19%
Chicago Bears	37.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Washington Redskins
Washington Redskins	62.2%100.00%
Chicago Bears		37.8%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Washington Redskins 62.19% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.19%

Chicago Bears 37.81% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.81%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1940-09-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-24	1356.85	1645.15	8.30%	89.26%	-2.90	0-1
1940-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 10-3	1353.95	1376.84	27.96%	66.11%	+23.18	1-1
1940-10-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-17	1377.13	1317.71	70.44%	24.10%	+11.90	2-1
1940-10-13	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 21-0	1389.03	1336.06	69.70%	24.75%	+15.56	3-1
1940-10-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-16	1404.59	1686.50	8.57%	88.92%	-3.40	3-2
1940-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-7	1401.19	1292.56	44.88%	48.27%	+24.37	4-2
1940-11-03	New York Giants	L 7-10	1425.56	1565.79	43.74%	49.42%	-10.29	4-3
1940-11-10	Washington Redskins	W 16-14	1415.27	1706.97	24.96%	69.46%	+12.98	5-3
1940-11-17	Cleveland Rams	W 29-14	1428.25	1555.00	45.66%	47.48%	+24.84	6-3
1940-11-24	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-9	1453.09	1344.68	75.68%	19.53%	+5.96	7-3
1940-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 14-6	1459.05	1579.92	18.49%	76.91%	+28.52	8-3
1940-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 41-10	1653.41	1685.10	26.99%	67.19%	+49.52	1-0
1940-09-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-21	1702.93	1329.19	78.05%	17.52%	-38.25	1-1
1940-10-06	@ Cleveland Rams	W 21-14	1664.68	1543.37	46.70%	46.44%	+16.63	2-1
1940-10-13	Detroit Lions	W 7-0	1681.31	1508.04	81.58%	14.55%	+5.19	3-1
1940-10-20	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 16-7	1686.50	1404.59	88.92%	8.57%	+3.39	4-1
1940-10-27	@ New York Giants	W 37-21	1689.89	1592.67	43.27%	49.90%	+26.88	5-1
1940-11-03	Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1716.77	1625.71	73.90%	21.07%	+7.62	6-1
1940-11-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1724.39	1497.94	61.36%	32.31%	-14.14	6-2
1940-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-7	1710.25	1694.00	32.54%	61.12%	-8.94	6-3
1940-11-24	Cleveland Rams	W 47-25	1701.31	1530.15	81.41%	14.70%	+9.30	7-3
1940-12-01	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-23	1710.61	1338.73	92.95%	5.38%	+1.98	8-3
1940-09-08	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	T 7-7	1327.44	1359.32	26.97%	67.21%	+1.29	0-0
1940-09-15	Detroit Lions	T 0-0	1328.73	1500.18	39.42%	53.86%	+0.46	0-0
1940-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 21-7	1329.19	1702.93	17.52%	78.05%	+38.25	1-0
1940-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-31	1367.44	1635.58	9.19%	88.15%	-6.08	1-1
1940-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-43	1361.36	1495.29	17.44%	78.15%	-12.74	1-2
1940-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1348.62	1677.92	6.72%	91.24%	-2.33	1-3
1940-10-20	@ Cleveland Rams	L 14-26	1346.29	1516.09	14.79%	81.30%	-6.91	1-4
1940-10-27	Cleveland Rams	W 17-7	1339.38	1523.00	37.78%	55.56%	+23.50	2-4
1940-11-10	Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1362.88	1618.10	28.92%	65.06%	-18.20	2-5
1940-11-24	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 9-14	1344.68	1453.09	19.53%	75.68%	-5.95	2-6
1940-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-31	1338.73	1710.61	5.38%	92.95%	-1.98	2-7
1940-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-13	1552.40	1332.15	85.12%	11.63%	+4.39	1-0
1940-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-6	1556.79	1481.87	40.17%	53.07%	-13.42	1-1
1940-10-06	Chicago Bears	L 14-21	1543.37	1664.68	46.44%	46.70%	-16.62	1-2
1940-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-31	1526.75	1641.66	18.98%	76.33%	-10.66	1-3
1940-10-20	Chicago Cardinals	W 26-14	1516.09	1346.29	81.30%	14.79%	+6.91	2-3
1940-10-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-17	1523.00	1339.38	55.56%	37.78%	-23.51	2-4
1940-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 24-0	1499.49	1520.18	60.53%	33.09%	+22.24	3-4
1940-11-10	@ New York Giants	W 13-0	1521.73	1576.08	24.61%	69.86%	+33.27	4-4
1940-11-17	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-29	1555.00	1428.25	47.48%	45.66%	-24.85	4-5
1940-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 25-47	1530.15	1701.31	14.70%	81.41%	-9.29	4-6
1940-12-01	Green Bay Packers	T 13-13	1520.86	1669.10	42.62%	50.57%	+0.25	4-6
1940-09-15	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 0-0	1500.18	1328.73	53.86%	39.42%	-0.46	0-0
1940-09-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 7-10	1499.72	1358.99	78.77%	16.91%	-17.85	0-1
1940-09-29	Cleveland Rams	W 6-0	1481.87	1556.79	53.07%	40.17%	+13.42	1-1
1940-10-05	Chicago Cardinals	W 43-14	1495.29	1361.36	78.15%	17.44%	+12.75	2-1
1940-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-7	1508.04	1681.31	14.55%	81.58%	-5.19	2-2
1940-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-14	1502.85	1652.31	16.25%	79.55%	+31.20	3-2
1940-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1534.05	1689.85	41.56%	51.64%	-13.87	3-3
1940-11-03	@ Cleveland Rams	L 0-24	1520.18	1499.49	33.09%	60.53%	-22.24	3-4
1940-11-10	Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1497.94	1724.39	32.31%	61.36%	+14.14	4-4
1940-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-0	1512.08	1261.03	64.54%	29.40%	+18.50	5-4
1940-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 7-50	1530.58	1624.67	50.35%	42.83%	-44.43	5-5
1940-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1683.00	1334.24	92.06%	6.07%	+2.10	1-0
1940-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 10-41	1685.10	1653.41	67.19%	26.99%	-49.52	1-1
1940-09-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-6	1635.58	1367.44	88.15%	9.19%	+6.08	2-1
1940-10-13	Cleveland Rams	W 31-14	1641.66	1526.75	76.33%	18.98%	+10.65	3-1
1940-10-20	Detroit Lions	L 14-23	1652.31	1502.85	79.55%	16.25%	-31.20	3-2
1940-10-27	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 24-3	1621.11	1316.30	90.10%	7.63%	+4.60	4-2
1940-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-14	1625.71	1716.77	21.07%	73.90%	-7.61	4-3
1940-11-10	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-7	1618.10	1362.88	65.06%	28.92%	+18.19	5-3
1940-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 3-7	1636.29	1542.82	42.74%	50.44%	-11.62	5-4
1940-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 50-7	1624.67	1530.58	42.83%	50.35%	+44.43	6-4
1940-12-01	@ Cleveland Rams	T 13-13	1669.10	1520.86	50.57%	42.62%	-0.25	6-4
1940-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	T 10-10	1588.01	1358.02	61.83%	31.88%	-0.96	0-0
1940-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-21	1587.05	1648.04	23.94%	70.62%	-12.27	0-1
1940-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1574.78	1327.75	64.03%	29.86%	+10.04	1-1
1940-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-7	1584.82	1305.80	88.76%	8.70%	+3.64	2-1
1940-10-20	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 12-0	1588.46	1320.51	88.14%	9.19%	+4.21	3-1
1940-10-27	Chicago Bears	L 21-37	1592.67	1689.89	49.90%	43.27%	-26.88	3-2
1940-11-03	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 10-7	1565.79	1425.56	49.42%	43.74%	+10.29	4-2
1940-11-10	Cleveland Rams	L 0-13	1576.08	1521.73	69.86%	24.61%	-33.26	4-3
1940-11-17	Green Bay Packers	W 7-3	1542.82	1636.29	50.44%	42.74%	+11.62	5-3
1940-11-24	Washington Redskins	W 21-7	1554.44	1702.93	42.58%	50.60%	+25.48	6-3
1940-12-01	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 6-14	1579.92	1459.05	76.91%	18.49%	-28.53	6-4
1940-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1334.24	1683.00	6.07%	92.06%	-2.09	0-1
1940-09-22	@ Cleveland Rams	L 13-21	1332.15	1552.40	11.63%	85.12%	-4.40	0-2
1940-09-28	New York Giants	L 14-20	1327.75	1574.78	29.86%	64.03%	-10.04	0-3
1940-10-04	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 17-30	1317.71	1377.13	24.10%	70.44%	-11.91	0-4
1940-10-13	@ New York Giants	L 7-17	1305.80	1584.82	8.70%	88.76%	-3.63	0-5
1940-10-20	Washington Redskins	L 17-34	1302.17	1680.24	17.18%	78.45%	-9.61	0-6
1940-10-26	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 7-21	1292.56	1401.19	48.27%	44.88%	-24.37	0-7
1940-11-10	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 3-7	1268.19	1308.44	26.07%	68.21%	-7.16	0-8
1940-11-17	Detroit Lions	L 0-21	1261.03	1512.08	29.40%	64.54%	-18.50	0-9
1940-11-28	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 7-0	1242.53	1315.60	53.34%	39.92%	+14.41	1-9
1940-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-13	1256.94	1677.46	4.15%	94.53%	-1.41	1-10
1940-09-08	Chicago Cardinals	T 7-7	1359.32	1327.44	67.21%	26.97%	-1.30	0-0
1940-09-15	New York Giants	T 10-10	1358.02	1588.01	31.88%	61.83%	+0.97	0-0
1940-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1358.99	1499.72	16.91%	78.77%	+17.85	1-0
1940-09-29	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 3-10	1376.84	1353.95	66.11%	27.96%	-23.18	1-1
1940-10-06	Washington Redskins	L 10-40	1353.66	1660.32	23.46%	71.17%	-17.60	1-2
1940-10-13	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-21	1336.06	1389.03	24.75%	69.70%	-15.55	1-3
1940-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 0-12	1320.51	1588.46	9.19%	88.14%	-4.21	1-4
1940-10-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1316.30	1621.11	7.63%	90.10%	-4.60	1-5
1940-11-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-37	1311.70	1703.72	4.83%	93.65%	-3.26	1-6
1940-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-3	1308.44	1268.19	68.21%	26.07%	+7.16	2-6
1940-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-7	1315.60	1242.53	39.92%	53.34%	-14.41	2-7
1940-09-15	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 24-17	1645.15	1356.85	89.26%	8.30%	+2.89	1-0
1940-09-22	New York Giants	W 21-7	1648.04	1587.05	70.62%	23.94%	+12.28	2-0
1940-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 40-10	1660.32	1353.66	71.17%	23.46%	+17.60	3-0
1940-10-13	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-21	1677.92	1348.62	91.24%	6.72%	+2.32	4-0
1940-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-17	1680.24	1302.17	78.45%	17.18%	+9.61	5-0
1940-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-14	1689.85	1534.05	51.64%	41.56%	+13.87	6-0
1940-11-03	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 37-10	1703.72	1311.70	93.65%	4.83%	+3.25	7-0
1940-11-10	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 14-16	1706.97	1415.27	69.46%	24.96%	-12.97	7-1
1940-11-17	Chicago Bears	W 7-3	1694.00	1710.25	61.12%	32.54%	+8.93	8-1
1940-11-24	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1702.93	1554.44	50.60%	42.58%	-25.47	8-2
1940-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-6	1677.46	1256.94	94.53%	4.15%	+1.41	9-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1940-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 73-0	1712.59	1678.87	37.78%	62.22%	+66.99	1-0
1940-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 0-73	1678.87	1712.59	62.22%	37.78%	-66.98	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1940-10-20	16.25%	Detroit Lions	1502.85	23	@ Green Bay Packers	1652.31	14
2	1940-09-22	16.91%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1358.99	10	@ Detroit Lions	1499.72	7
3	1940-09-25	17.52%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1329.19	21	Chicago Bears	1702.93	7
4	1940-12-01	18.49%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1459.05	14	@ New York Giants	1579.92	6
5	1940-11-10	24.61%	Cleveland Rams	1521.73	13	@ New York Giants	1576.08	0
6	1940-11-10	24.96%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1415.27	16	Washington Redskins	1706.97	14
7	1940-09-22	26.99%	Chicago Bears	1653.41	41	@ Green Bay Packers	1685.10	10
8	1940-09-29	27.96%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1353.95	10	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1376.84	3
9	1940-11-10	32.31%	@ Detroit Lions	1497.94	17	Chicago Bears	1724.39	14
10	1940-10-27	37.78%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1339.38	17	Cleveland Rams	1523.00	7
11	1940-12-08 *	37.78%	Chicago Bears	1712.59	73	@ Washington Redskins	1678.87	0
12	1940-11-24	42.58%	@ New York Giants	1554.44	21	Washington Redskins	1702.93	7
13	1940-11-24	42.83%	Green Bay Packers	1624.67	50	@ Detroit Lions	1530.58	7
14	1940-10-27	43.27%	Chicago Bears	1689.89	37	@ New York Giants	1592.67	21
15	1940-10-26	44.88%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1401.19	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1292.56	7
16	1940-11-17	45.66%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1428.25	29	Cleveland Rams	1555.00	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1940-12-08 *	66.99	Chicago Bears	73	1712.59	37.78%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1678.87	62.22%
2	1940-09-22	49.52	Chicago Bears	41	1653.41	26.99%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1685.10	67.19%
3	1940-11-24	44.43	Green Bay Packers	50	1624.67	42.83%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1530.58	50.35%
4	1940-09-25	38.25	@ Chicago Cardinals	21	1329.19	17.52%	Chicago Bears	7	1702.93	78.05%
5	1940-11-10	33.27	Cleveland Rams	13	1521.73	24.61%	@ New York Giants	0	1576.08	69.86%
6	1940-10-20	31.20	Detroit Lions	23	1502.85	16.25%	@ Green Bay Packers	14	1652.31	79.55%
7	1940-12-01	28.53	Brooklyn Dodgers	14	1459.05	18.49%	@ New York Giants	6	1579.92	76.91%
8	1940-10-27	26.88	Chicago Bears	37	1689.89	43.27%	@ New York Giants	21	1592.67	49.90%
9	1940-11-24	25.48	@ New York Giants	21	1554.44	42.58%	Washington Redskins	7	1702.93	50.60%
10	1940-11-17	24.85	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	29	1428.25	45.66%	Cleveland Rams	14	1555.00	47.48%
11	1940-10-26	24.37	Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1401.19	44.88%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1292.56	48.27%
12	1940-10-27	23.51	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1339.38	37.78%	Cleveland Rams	7	1523.00	55.56%
13	1940-09-29	23.18	Brooklyn Dodgers	10	1353.95	27.96%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	3	1376.84	66.11%
14	1940-11-03	22.24	@ Cleveland Rams	24	1499.49	60.53%	Detroit Lions	0	1520.18	33.09%
15	1940-11-17	18.50	Detroit Lions	21	1512.08	64.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1261.03	29.40%
16	1940-11-10	18.20	Green Bay Packers	28	1618.10	65.06%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1362.88	28.92%
17	1940-09-22	17.85	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	1358.99	16.91%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1499.72	78.77%
18	1940-10-06	17.60	Washington Redskins	40	1660.32	71.17%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	10	1353.66	23.46%
19	1940-10-06	16.63	Chicago Bears	21	1664.68	46.70%	@ Cleveland Rams	14	1543.37	46.44%
20	1940-10-13	15.56	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	21	1389.03	69.70%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1336.06	24.75%
21	1940-11-28	14.41	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1242.53	53.34%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1315.60	39.92%
22	1940-11-10	14.14	@ Detroit Lions	17	1497.94	32.31%	Chicago Bears	14	1724.39	61.36%
23	1940-10-27	13.87	Washington Redskins	20	1689.85	51.64%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1534.05	41.56%
24	1940-09-29	13.42	@ Detroit Lions	6	1481.87	53.07%	Cleveland Rams	0	1556.79	40.17%
25	1940-11-10	12.98	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	16	1415.27	24.96%	Washington Redskins	14	1706.97	69.46%