1933 NFL Season

57 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

3rd Title

Runner-Up

New York Giants

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.88 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.62 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Cardinals

2.91 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.41 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	11	3	0	.786	-	244	101	+143	8.43	+2.57
2	Brooklyn Dodgers	5	4	1	.550	3.5	93	54	+39	5.83	-0.33
3	Boston Redskins	5	5	2	.500	4	103	97	+6	5.98	+0.02
4	Philadelphia Eagles	3	5	1	.389	5	77	158	-81	3.90	-0.40
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	6	2	.364	5.5	67	208	-141	4.35	-0.35

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	10	2	1	.808	-	133	82	+51	7.62	+2.88
2	Portsmouth Spartans	6	5	0	.545	3.5	128	87	+41	6.20	-0.20
3	Green Bay Packers	5	7	1	.423	5	170	107	+63	6.20	-0.70
4	Cincinnati Reds	3	6	1	.350	5.5	38	110	-72	4.07	-0.57
5	Chicago Cardinals	1	9	1	.136	8	52	101	-49	4.41	-2.91

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 23

New York Giants 21

Dec 17

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New York Giants	East	1736	11	8.43	+2.57	98.50%	5	7	8	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	West	1678	10.5	7.62	+2.88	98.03%	4	6	7	8	10	13
Green Bay Packers	West	1548	5.5	6.20	-0.70	46.57%	3	5	6	7	8	13
Portsmouth Spartans	West	1544	6	6.20	-0.20	68.04%	3	5	6	7	8	11
Boston Redskins	East	1524	6	5.98	+0.02	73.53%	3	4	5	7	8	12
Brooklyn Dodgers	East	1518	5.5	5.83	-0.33	51.75%	3	4	5	6	8	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1409	3.5	3.90	-0.40	49.92%	1	3	4	4	6	9
Cincinnati Reds	West	1403	3.5	4.07	-0.57	46.72%	1	3	4	5	6	10
Chicago Cardinals	West	1337	1.5	4.41	-2.91	4.70%	2	3	4	5	7	11
Pittsburgh Pirates	East	1303	4	4.35	-0.35	65.58%	2	3	4	5	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Redskins	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates
Boston Redskins	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Reds	Packers	Spartans
Boston Redskins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Brooklyn Dodgers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	-
New York Giants	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Reds	Packers	Spartans
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	-	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Cincinnati Reds	-	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	-	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Portsmouth Spartans	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Redskins	Dodgers	Giants	Eagles	Pirates
Chicago Bears	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-
Chicago Cardinals	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Cincinnati Reds	-	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Portsmouth Spartans	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	14.04%	11.40%	5.26%	7.02%	0.88%	—	1.75%	40.35%
7–13	11.40%	12.28%	5.26%	0.88%	—	0.88%	—	30.70%
14–20	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%	0.88%	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	7.02%	0.88%	0.88%	—	—	—	—	8.77%
28–34	0.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.88%
35–41	—	0.88%	—	—	—	—	—	0.88%
42+	1.75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.75%
Total	40.35%	30.70%	16.67%	8.77%	0.88%	0.88%	1.75%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.69	9.69	+0.00
SD	9.79	9.79	15.53
CV	1.01	1.01	—
Max	56	56	+56
Min	0	0	-56

Games Played: 57

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	41.67%
7–13	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	41.67%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	100%

Boston Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.58	8.08	+0.50
SD	8.75	6.53	9.81
CV	1.02	0.81	—
Max	21	20	+15
Min	0	0	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	20.00%	30.00%	—	—	—	—	—	50.00%
7–13	10.00%	—	—	10.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
14–20	10.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%
21–27	10.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%
28–34	10.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	60.00%	30.00%	—	10.00%	—	—	—	100%

Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.30	5.40	+3.90
SD	11.55	7.14	16.16
CV	1.24	1.32	—
Max	32	21	+32
Min	0	0	-14

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	23.08%
7–13	23.08%	15.38%	—	—	—	—	—	38.46%
14–20	—	23.08%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	30.77%
21–27	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	46.15%	46.15%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.23	6.31	+3.92
SD	6.73	4.05	6.50
CV	0.66	0.64	—
Max	22	14	+16
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	72.73%
7–13	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	4.73	9.18	-4.45
SD	4.50	6.66	5.37
CV	0.95	0.73	—
Max	13	22	+3
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	30.00%	—	20.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	70.00%
7–13	10.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	30.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.00%	20.00%	20.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Reds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.80	11.00	-7.20
SD	4.92	9.57	12.02
CV	1.29	0.87	—
Max	12	27	+10
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	23.08%
7–13	7.69%	23.08%	15.38%	—	—	—	—	46.15%
14–20	15.38%	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.38%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
42+	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	30.77%	46.15%	23.08%	—	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.08	8.23	+4.85
SD	13.27	6.25	16.93
CV	1.01	0.76	—
Max	47	20	+47
Min	0	0	-13

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	50.00%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.43	7.21	+10.21
SD	13.15	7.02	16.02
CV	0.75	0.97	—
Max	56	21	+56
Min	3	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	22.22%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	55.56%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
14–20	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
21–27	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	44.44%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.56	17.56	-9.00
SD	9.28	18.60	23.80
CV	1.08	1.06	—
Max	25	56	+19
Min	0	0	-56

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	18.18%	—	—	36.36%	9.09%	—	9.09%	72.73%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	36.36%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Pittsburgh Pirates — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	6.09	18.91	-12.82
SD	6.53	14.17	17.97
CV	1.07	0.75	—
Max	17	47	+14
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
7–13	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	54.55%
14–20	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
21–27	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.45%	27.27%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	100%

Portsmouth Spartans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.64	7.91	+3.73
SD	7.26	7.30	12.84
CV	0.62	0.92	—
Max	25	17	+25
Min	0	0	-17

Games Played: 11

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.70	+0.4
Allowed	0.15	-0.3
Differential	0.65	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	10.5	7.62	+2.88
2	New York Giants	11	8.43	+2.57
3	Boston Redskins	6	5.98	+0.02
4	Portsmouth Spartans	6	6.20	-0.20
5	Brooklyn Dodgers	5.5	5.83	-0.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Cardinals	1.5	4.41	-2.91
2	Green Bay Packers	5.5	6.20	-0.70
3	Cincinnati Reds	3.5	4.07	-0.57
4	Philadelphia Eagles	3.5	3.90	-0.40
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	4.35	-0.35

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	6	Sep 24 – Oct 29	1 in 43
2	New York Giants	7	Nov 5 – Dec 10	1 in 20
3	Cincinnati Reds	2	Nov 12 – Nov 19	1 in 20
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 6
5	Boston Redskins	2	Oct 4 – Oct 8	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	7	Oct 15 – Nov 30	1 in 96
2	Portsmouth Spartans	3	Nov 19 – Dec 3	1 in 22
3	Cincinnati Reds	4	Sep 17 – Oct 15	1 in 14
4	Brooklyn Dodgers	2	Nov 30 – Dec 3	1 in 8
5	Green Bay Packers	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 4

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	73.11%	17.26%	6.72%	2.25%	0.67%
Boston Redskins	14.04%	34.76%	27.94%	15.47%	7.79%
Brooklyn Dodgers	10.47%	33.01%	31.57%	17.07%	7.89%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1.59%	9.68%	18.68%	31.07%	38.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.80%	5.29%	15.09%	34.14%	44.67%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	55.97%	24.28%	12.61%	5.42%	1.71%
Green Bay Packers	22.69%	29.86%	25.77%	15.02%	6.67%
Portsmouth Spartans	17.11%	30.17%	27.44%	16.91%	8.38%
Chicago Cardinals	2.85%	8.97%	18.05%	31.67%	38.46%
Cincinnati Reds	1.39%	6.72%	16.13%	30.98%	44.78%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
New York Giants	47.22%	24.47%	11.10%	7.26%	4.29%	2.85%	1.56%	0.77%	0.36%	0.11%
Chicago Bears	26.88%	27.21%	15.55%	10.88%	7.40%	5.30%	3.28%	2.03%	1.05%	0.40%
Green Bay Packers	8.37%	13.81%	15.58%	14.62%	13.15%	11.78%	8.74%	6.89%	4.42%	2.63%
Portsmouth Spartans	6.48%	11.55%	15.90%	15.71%	14.58%	12.43%	9.22%	7.02%	4.53%	2.58%
Boston Redskins	6.41%	10.22%	15.21%	15.00%	13.96%	12.74%	9.85%	7.96%	5.35%	3.29%
Brooklyn Dodgers	3.47%	7.87%	14.34%	16.58%	16.13%	13.79%	10.46%	8.36%	5.52%	3.48%
Chicago Cardinals	0.54%	2.12%	4.41%	6.06%	8.79%	10.72%	14.41%	16.48%	18.41%	18.07%
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.31%	1.27%	3.49%	5.77%	8.29%	11.09%	14.51%	16.66%	18.27%	20.36%
Cincinnati Reds	0.14%	0.91%	2.68%	4.88%	7.45%	10.09%	14.00%	15.74%	19.55%	24.55%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.16%	0.58%	1.75%	3.24%	5.96%	9.20%	13.97%	18.09%	22.54%	24.52%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	73.11%	26.89%
Boston Redskins	14.04%	85.96%
Brooklyn Dodgers	10.47%	89.53%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1.59%	98.41%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.80%	99.20%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	55.97%	44.03%
Green Bay Packers	22.69%	77.31%
Portsmouth Spartans	17.11%	82.89%
Chicago Cardinals	2.85%	97.15%
Cincinnati Reds	1.39%	98.61%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+24.56%

Fortress

57.89%8.77%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 87.12 Elo pts.

21 Elo

0.049 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.70 points

Home-Tilted

-8+4.24+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.4

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

34%

Chicago Bears, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

54.2%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.26 · As Expected: 1.26 to 1.74 · Elevated: 1.74 to 2.37 · High Variance: 2.37 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.56 · Close: 1.56 to 2.11 · Off Target: 2.11 to 2.75 · Well Off Target: 2.75 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.5 · As Expected: 0.5 to 1.2 · Several Outliers: 1.2 to 2.2 · Many Outliers: 2.2 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.53 · As Expected: 0.53 to 0.89 · More Than Expected: 0.89 to 1.42 · Far More Than Expected: 1.42 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.60 wins

As Expected

01.584

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

01.834

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.50%

New York Giants

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.70%

Chicago Cardinals

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Many Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.92

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

69%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

92%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

35%

Some Drama

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.512

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.99

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

N/A

No prior ratings

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.37 · Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.

Probability calibration

0.94

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.12

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.128

Within Noise

00.1850.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
New York Giants	73.11%	40.22%
Chicago Bears	55.97%	34.31%
Green Bay Packers	22.69%	10.00%
Portsmouth Spartans	17.11%	7.62%
Boston Redskins	14.04%	3.83%
Brooklyn Dodgers	10.47%	2.82%
Chicago Cardinals	2.85%	0.56%
Cincinnati Reds	1.39%	0.36%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.80%	0.15%
Pittsburgh Pirates	1.59%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	Green Bay Packers	Portsmouth Spartans	Boston Redskins	Brooklyn Dodgers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston Redskins	19.8%7.68%	61.7%0.27%	51.4%0.25%	33.6%3.07%	35.2%2.78%
Brooklyn Dodgers	19.2%5.60%	61.3%0.16%	45.9%0.04%	34.8%2.73%	35.4%1.94%
New York Giants	45.9%41.23%	84.8%2.37%	80.8%1.09%	64.6%16.46%	64.8%11.96%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.5%0.50%	57.1%0.03%	16.7%<0.01%	24.1%0.14%	33.3%0.13%
Pittsburgh Pirates	6.8%0.97%	36.7%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	12.0%0.29%	9.5%0.30%
Chicago Bears						80.2%7.68%	80.8%5.60%	54.1%41.23%	88.5%0.50%	93.2%0.97%
Chicago Cardinals						38.3%0.27%	38.8%0.16%	15.2%2.37%	42.9%0.03%	63.3%0.03%
Cincinnati Reds						48.6%0.25%	54.1%0.04%	19.2%1.09%	83.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers						66.4%3.07%	65.2%2.73%	35.4%16.46%	75.9%0.14%	88.0%0.29%
Portsmouth Spartans						64.8%2.78%	64.6%1.94%	35.2%11.96%	66.7%0.13%	90.5%0.30%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	54.22%
New York Giants	45.78%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
New York Giants	45.8%100.00%
Chicago Bears		54.2%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 54.22% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.22%

New York Giants 45.78% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.78%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1933-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	T 7-7	1500.00	1500.00	33.65%	57.69%	+1.49	0-0
1933-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-7	1501.49	1539.88	29.09%	62.74%	-21.00	0-1
1933-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 21-6	1480.49	1442.22	38.61%	52.40%	+53.59	1-1
1933-10-08	New York Giants	W 21-20	1534.08	1558.98	54.28%	36.83%	+9.99	2-1
1933-10-15	Portsmouth Spartans	L 0-13	1544.07	1522.30	60.59%	31.01%	-57.06	2-2
1933-10-22	Chicago Cardinals	W 10-0	1487.01	1495.84	56.49%	34.76%	+29.88	3-2
1933-10-29	Pittsburgh Pirates	L 14-16	1516.89	1381.00	74.03%	19.49%	-26.89	3-3
1933-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1490.00	1643.71	36.26%	54.88%	+45.66	4-3
1933-11-12	@ New York Giants	L 0-7	1535.66	1626.67	23.56%	69.13%	-16.95	4-4
1933-11-19	Green Bay Packers	W 20-7	1518.71	1567.34	50.94%	40.02%	+38.94	5-4
1933-11-26	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-14	1557.65	1579.07	31.05%	60.55%	-31.68	5-5
1933-12-03	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 0-0	1525.97	1335.54	59.86%	31.68%	-1.75	5-5
1933-10-08	Chicago Bears	L 0-10	1500.00	1560.88	49.19%	41.71%	-41.28	0-1
1933-10-15	Cincinnati Reds	W 27-0	1458.72	1393.33	66.10%	26.15%	+37.04	1-1
1933-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1495.76	1605.96	21.74%	71.29%	-22.08	1-2
1933-10-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 7-0	1473.68	1465.95	58.73%	32.70%	+23.56	2-2
1933-11-05	Pittsburgh Pirates	T 3-3	1497.24	1407.89	68.94%	23.72%	-2.84	2-2
1933-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 32-0	1494.40	1410.73	44.93%	45.93%	+69.35	3-2
1933-11-19	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 3-0	1563.75	1379.86	58.99%	32.46%	+15.32	4-2
1933-11-26	Boston Redskins	W 14-0	1579.07	1557.65	60.55%	31.05%	+31.68	5-2
1933-11-30	New York Giants	L 0-10	1610.75	1674.95	48.72%	42.17%	-40.92	5-3
1933-12-03	@ Cincinnati Reds	L 0-10	1569.83	1350.88	63.54%	28.38%	-52.30	5-4
1933-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1500.00	1498.51	33.84%	57.49%	+39.88	1-0
1933-10-01	Boston Redskins	W 7-0	1539.88	1501.49	62.74%	29.09%	+21.00	2-0
1933-10-08	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 10-0	1560.88	1500.00	41.71%	49.19%	+41.28	3-0
1933-10-15	Chicago Cardinals	W 12-9	1602.16	1506.73	69.64%	23.13%	+10.89	4-0
1933-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 10-7	1613.05	1543.80	66.57%	25.74%	+12.16	5-0
1933-10-29	New York Giants	W 14-10	1625.21	1628.05	57.31%	34.01%	+18.50	6-0
1933-11-05	@ Boston Redskins	L 0-10	1643.71	1490.00	54.88%	36.26%	-45.66	6-1
1933-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 3-3	1598.05	1400.88	60.74%	30.88%	-1.86	6-1
1933-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 0-3	1596.19	1643.63	28.08%	63.89%	-13.27	6-2
1933-11-26	Portsmouth Spartans	W 17-14	1582.92	1604.57	54.73%	36.41%	+17.12	7-2
1933-11-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 22-6	1600.04	1364.54	65.60%	26.58%	+28.99	8-2
1933-12-03	@ Portsmouth Spartans	W 17-7	1629.03	1587.46	39.06%	51.94%	+43.40	9-2
1933-12-10	Green Bay Packers	W 7-6	1672.43	1553.36	72.25%	20.94%	+5.67	10-2
1933-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 13-14	1500.00	1430.70	42.89%	47.99%	-11.52	0-1
1933-10-01	@ Portsmouth Spartans	L 6-7	1488.48	1573.82	24.11%	68.47%	-6.56	0-2
1933-10-08	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 3-0	1481.92	1458.03	36.70%	54.42%	+24.81	1-2
1933-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-12	1506.73	1602.16	23.13%	69.64%	-10.89	1-3
1933-10-22	@ Boston Redskins	L 0-10	1495.84	1487.01	34.76%	56.49%	-29.89	1-4
1933-10-29	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-7	1465.95	1473.68	32.70%	58.73%	-23.56	1-5
1933-11-05	Green Bay Packers	L 6-14	1442.39	1557.91	41.41%	49.50%	-31.54	1-6
1933-11-12	Cincinnati Reds	L 9-12	1410.85	1318.91	69.24%	23.47%	-30.99	1-7
1933-11-19	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-3	1379.86	1563.75	32.46%	58.99%	-15.32	1-8
1933-11-30	Chicago Bears	L 6-22	1364.54	1600.04	26.58%	65.60%	-29.00	1-9
1933-12-03	Boston Redskins	T 0-0	1335.54	1525.97	31.68%	59.86%	+1.76	1-9
1933-09-17	@ Portsmouth Spartans	L 0-21	1500.00	1500.00	33.65%	57.69%	-41.97	0-1
1933-10-08	Chicago Cardinals	L 0-3	1458.03	1481.92	54.42%	36.70%	-24.81	0-2
1933-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	L 3-17	1433.22	1388.64	39.46%	51.51%	-39.89	0-3
1933-10-15	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-27	1393.33	1458.72	26.15%	66.10%	-37.04	0-4
1933-10-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	T 0-0	1356.29	1379.90	54.45%	36.67%	-1.10	0-4
1933-11-05	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-6	1355.19	1364.60	56.41%	34.84%	-36.28	0-5
1933-11-12	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 12-9	1318.91	1410.85	23.47%	69.24%	+31.00	1-5
1933-11-19	Portsmouth Spartans	W 10-7	1349.91	1636.49	21.55%	71.52%	+31.92	2-5
1933-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-20	1381.83	1434.33	27.53%	64.52%	-30.95	2-6
1933-12-03	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 10-0	1350.88	1569.83	28.38%	63.54%	+52.29	3-6
1933-09-17	Boston Redskins	T 7-7	1500.00	1500.00	57.69%	33.65%	-1.49	0-0
1933-09-24	Chicago Bears	L 7-14	1498.51	1500.00	57.49%	33.84%	-39.88	0-1
1933-10-01	New York Giants	L 7-10	1458.63	1537.45	46.62%	44.24%	-21.53	0-2
1933-10-08	Portsmouth Spartans	W 17-0	1437.10	1580.38	37.63%	53.43%	+58.08	1-2
1933-10-15	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 47-0	1495.18	1428.53	66.26%	26.01%	+48.62	2-2
1933-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1543.80	1613.05	25.74%	66.57%	-12.16	2-3
1933-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-9	1531.64	1390.87	74.53%	19.08%	+26.27	3-3
1933-11-05	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 14-6	1557.91	1442.39	49.50%	41.41%	+31.54	4-3
1933-11-12	@ Portsmouth Spartans	L 0-7	1589.45	1614.39	30.64%	61.01%	-22.11	4-4
1933-11-19	@ Boston Redskins	L 7-20	1567.34	1518.71	40.02%	50.94%	-38.94	4-5
1933-11-26	@ New York Giants	L 6-17	1528.40	1656.90	20.12%	73.26%	-18.06	4-6
1933-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-0	1510.34	1465.28	39.53%	51.44%	+43.02	5-6
1933-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-7	1553.36	1672.43	20.94%	72.25%	-5.68	5-7
1933-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	W 23-2	1500.00	1500.00	33.65%	57.69%	+69.30	1-0
1933-09-24	@ Portsmouth Spartans	L 7-17	1569.30	1541.97	37.15%	53.94%	-31.85	1-1
1933-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 10-7	1537.45	1458.63	44.24%	46.62%	+21.53	2-1
1933-10-08	@ Boston Redskins	L 20-21	1558.98	1534.08	36.83%	54.28%	-9.99	2-2
1933-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 56-0	1548.99	1500.00	64.08%	27.91%	+56.97	3-2
1933-10-22	Brooklyn Dodgers	W 21-7	1605.96	1495.76	71.29%	21.74%	+22.09	4-2
1933-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-14	1628.05	1625.21	34.01%	57.31%	-18.51	4-3
1933-11-05	Portsmouth Spartans	W 13-10	1609.54	1631.52	54.68%	36.45%	+17.13	5-3
1933-11-12	Boston Redskins	W 7-0	1626.67	1535.66	69.13%	23.56%	+16.96	6-3
1933-11-19	Chicago Bears	W 3-0	1643.63	1596.19	63.89%	28.08%	+13.27	7-3
1933-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 17-6	1656.90	1528.40	73.26%	20.12%	+18.05	8-3
1933-11-30	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	W 10-0	1674.95	1610.75	42.17%	48.72%	+40.92	9-3
1933-12-03	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 27-3	1715.87	1309.79	92.48%	5.29%	+6.57	10-3
1933-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1722.44	1422.27	72.99%	20.34%	+13.49	11-3
1933-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 0-56	1500.00	1548.99	27.91%	64.08%	-56.97	0-1
1933-10-18	Portsmouth Spartans	L 0-25	1443.03	1579.36	38.56%	52.45%	-52.16	0-2
1933-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-35	1390.87	1531.64	19.08%	74.53%	-26.27	0-3
1933-11-05	@ Cincinnati Reds	W 6-0	1364.60	1355.19	34.84%	56.41%	+36.28	1-3
1933-11-12	Chicago Bears	T 3-3	1400.88	1598.05	30.88%	60.74%	+1.86	1-3
1933-11-19	Pittsburgh Pirates	W 25-6	1402.74	1341.37	65.61%	26.57%	+31.59	2-3
1933-11-26	Cincinnati Reds	W 20-3	1434.33	1381.83	64.52%	27.53%	+30.95	3-3
1933-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 0-10	1465.28	1510.34	51.44%	39.53%	-43.01	3-4
1933-12-10	New York Giants	L 14-20	1422.27	1722.44	20.34%	72.99%	-13.49	3-5
1933-09-20	New York Giants	L 2-23	1500.00	1500.00	57.69%	33.65%	-69.30	0-1
1933-09-27	Chicago Cardinals	W 14-13	1430.70	1500.00	47.99%	42.89%	+11.52	1-1
1933-10-04	Boston Redskins	L 6-21	1442.22	1480.49	52.40%	38.61%	-53.58	1-2
1933-10-11	Cincinnati Reds	W 17-3	1388.64	1433.22	51.51%	39.46%	+39.89	2-2
1933-10-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-47	1428.53	1495.18	26.01%	66.26%	-48.63	2-3
1933-10-22	@ Cincinnati Reds	T 0-0	1379.90	1356.29	36.67%	54.45%	+1.10	2-3
1933-10-29	@ Boston Redskins	W 16-14	1381.00	1516.89	19.49%	74.03%	+26.89	3-3
1933-11-05	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	T 3-3	1407.89	1497.24	23.72%	68.94%	+2.84	3-3
1933-11-12	Brooklyn Dodgers	L 0-32	1410.73	1494.40	45.93%	44.93%	-69.36	3-4
1933-11-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-25	1341.37	1402.74	26.57%	65.61%	-31.58	3-5
1933-12-03	@ New York Giants	L 3-27	1309.79	1715.87	5.29%	92.48%	-6.57	3-6
1933-09-17	Cincinnati Reds	W 21-0	1500.00	1500.00	57.69%	33.65%	+41.97	1-0
1933-09-24	New York Giants	W 17-7	1541.97	1569.30	53.94%	37.15%	+31.85	2-0
1933-10-01	Chicago Cardinals	W 7-6	1573.82	1488.48	68.47%	24.11%	+6.56	3-0
1933-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-17	1580.38	1437.10	53.43%	37.63%	-58.08	3-1
1933-10-15	@ Boston Redskins	W 13-0	1522.30	1544.07	31.01%	60.59%	+57.06	4-1
1933-10-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 25-0	1579.36	1443.03	52.45%	38.56%	+52.16	5-1
1933-11-05	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1631.52	1609.54	36.45%	54.68%	-17.13	5-2
1933-11-12	Green Bay Packers	W 7-0	1614.39	1589.45	61.01%	30.64%	+22.10	6-2
1933-11-19	@ Cincinnati Reds	L 7-10	1636.49	1349.91	71.52%	21.55%	-31.92	6-3
1933-11-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1604.57	1582.92	36.41%	54.73%	-17.11	6-4
1933-12-03	Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1587.46	1629.03	51.94%	39.06%	-43.40	6-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1933-12-17	New York Giants	W 23-21	1678.10	1735.93	54.21%	45.79%	+15.73	1-0
1933-12-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-23	1735.93	1678.10	45.79%	54.21%	-15.72	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-10-29	19.49%	Pittsburgh Pirates	1381.00	16	@ Boston Redskins	1516.89	14
2	1933-11-19	21.55%	@ Cincinnati Reds	1349.91	10	Portsmouth Spartans	1636.49	7
3	1933-11-12	23.47%	Cincinnati Reds	1318.91	12	@ Chicago Cardinals	1410.85	9
4	1933-12-03	28.38%	@ Cincinnati Reds	1350.88	10	Brooklyn Dodgers	1569.83	0
5	1933-10-15	31.01%	Portsmouth Spartans	1522.30	13	@ Boston Redskins	1544.07	0
6	1933-09-20	33.65%	New York Giants	1500.00	23	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1500.00	2
7	1933-09-24	33.84%	Chicago Bears	1500.00	14	@ Green Bay Packers	1498.51	7
8	1933-11-05	34.84%	Philadelphia Eagles	1364.60	6	@ Cincinnati Reds	1355.19	0
9	1933-11-05	36.26%	@ Boston Redskins	1490.00	10	Chicago Bears	1643.71	0
10	1933-10-08	36.70%	Chicago Cardinals	1481.92	3	@ Cincinnati Reds	1458.03	0
11	1933-10-08	37.63%	@ Green Bay Packers	1437.10	17	Portsmouth Spartans	1580.38	0
12	1933-10-04	38.61%	Boston Redskins	1480.49	21	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1442.22	6
13	1933-12-03	39.06%	Chicago Bears	1629.03	17	@ Portsmouth Spartans	1587.46	7
14	1933-12-03	39.53%	Green Bay Packers	1510.34	10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1465.28	0
15	1933-10-08	41.71%	Chicago Bears	1560.88	10	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1500.00	0
16	1933-11-30	42.17%	New York Giants	1674.95	10	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	1610.75	0
17	1933-10-01	44.24%	New York Giants	1537.45	10	@ Green Bay Packers	1458.63	7
18	1933-11-12	44.93%	Brooklyn Dodgers	1494.40	32	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	1410.73	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1933-11-12	69.36	Brooklyn Dodgers	32	1494.40	44.93%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1410.73	45.93%
2	1933-09-20	69.30	New York Giants	23	1500.00	33.65%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	2	1500.00	57.69%
3	1933-10-08	58.08	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1437.10	37.63%	Portsmouth Spartans	0	1580.38	53.43%
4	1933-10-15	57.06	Portsmouth Spartans	13	1522.30	31.01%	@ Boston Redskins	0	1544.07	60.59%
5	1933-10-15	56.97	@ New York Giants	56	1548.99	64.08%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1500.00	27.91%
6	1933-10-04	53.59	Boston Redskins	21	1480.49	38.61%	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	6	1442.22	52.40%
7	1933-12-03	52.30	@ Cincinnati Reds	10	1350.88	28.38%	Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1569.83	63.54%
8	1933-10-18	52.16	Portsmouth Spartans	25	1579.36	52.45%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1443.03	38.56%
9	1933-10-15	48.63	@ Green Bay Packers	47	1495.18	66.26%	Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1428.53	26.01%
10	1933-11-05	45.66	@ Boston Redskins	10	1490.00	36.26%	Chicago Bears	0	1643.71	54.88%
11	1933-12-03	43.40	Chicago Bears	17	1629.03	39.06%	@ Portsmouth Spartans	7	1587.46	51.94%
12	1933-12-03	43.02	Green Bay Packers	10	1510.34	39.53%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1465.28	51.44%
13	1933-09-17	41.97	@ Portsmouth Spartans	21	1500.00	57.69%	Cincinnati Reds	0	1500.00	33.65%
14	1933-10-08	41.28	Chicago Bears	10	1560.88	41.71%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1500.00	49.19%
15	1933-11-30	40.92	New York Giants	10	1674.95	42.17%	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	0	1610.75	48.72%
16	1933-10-11	39.89	@ Pittsburgh Pirates	17	1388.64	51.51%	Cincinnati Reds	3	1433.22	39.46%
17	1933-09-24	39.88	Chicago Bears	14	1500.00	33.84%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1498.51	57.49%
18	1933-11-19	38.94	@ Boston Redskins	20	1518.71	50.94%	Green Bay Packers	7	1567.34	40.02%
19	1933-10-15	37.04	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	27	1458.72	66.10%	Cincinnati Reds	0	1393.33	26.15%
20	1933-11-05	36.28	Philadelphia Eagles	6	1364.60	34.84%	@ Cincinnati Reds	0	1355.19	56.41%
21	1933-11-19	31.92	@ Cincinnati Reds	10	1349.91	21.55%	Portsmouth Spartans	7	1636.49	71.52%
22	1933-09-24	31.85	@ Portsmouth Spartans	17	1541.97	53.94%	New York Giants	7	1569.30	37.15%
23	1933-11-26	31.68	@ Brooklyn Dodgers	14	1579.07	60.55%	Boston Redskins	0	1557.65	31.05%
24	1933-11-19	31.59	@ Philadelphia Eagles	25	1402.74	65.61%	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	1341.37	26.57%
25	1933-11-05	31.54	Green Bay Packers	14	1557.91	49.50%	@ Chicago Cardinals	6	1442.39	41.41%