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1937-38 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Inter Milan

41 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1929-30

Relegated

Fiorentina

15 pts

Atalanta · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Inter Milan

5.29 points above expected

41 points · 35.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fiorentina

8.75 points below expected

15 points · 23.75 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Milan Champion 30 16 9 5 41 57 28 +29 35.71 +5.29
2 Juventus 30 14 11 5 39 43 22 +21 34.71 +4.29
3 AC Milan 30 13 12 5 38 43 27 +16 33.05 +4.95
4 Genova 1893 30 15 8 7 38 50 35 +15 33.21 +4.79
5 Bologna 30 14 9 7 37 46 34 +12 32.90 +4.10
6 Roma 30 14 8 8 36 44 31 +13 32.51 +3.49
7 Triestina 30 12 12 6 36 35 22 +13 32.29 +3.71
8 Lazio Roma 30 11 10 9 32 48 30 +18 33.52 -1.52
9 Torino 30 12 8 10 32 39 37 +2 32.44 -0.44
10 Napoli 30 8 12 10 28 37 39 -2 28.18 -0.18
11 Liguria 30 8 8 14 24 33 42 -9 26.77 -2.77
12 Livorno 30 8 8 14 24 29 45 -16 24.88 -0.88
13 Bari 30 8 7 15 23 35 60 -25 26.83 -3.83
14 Lucchese 30 5 11 14 21 28 55 -27 25.24 -4.24
15 Atalanta Relegated 30 4 8 18 16 22 50 -28 24.02 -8.02
16 Fiorentina Relegated 30 3 9 18 15 28 60 -32 23.75 -8.75

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inter Milan 1917 41 35.71 +5.29 93.2% 21 29 33 36 38 42 50
Juventus 1891 39 34.71 +4.29 89.6% 21 28 32 35 37 41 50
Bologna 1872 37 32.90 +4.10 88.2% 17 26 30 33 36 39 46
AC Milan 1854 38 33.05 +4.95 92.0% 18 27 30 33 36 39 48
Genova 1893 1852 38 33.21 +4.79 91.4% 18 27 31 33 36 40 49
Triestina 1829 36 32.29 +3.71 85.8% 19 26 30 32 35 39 46
Lazio Roma 1827 32 33.52 -1.52 39.9% 17 27 31 34 36 40 48
Roma 1821 36 32.51 +3.49 84.3% 18 26 30 32 35 39 46
Torino 1803 32 32.44 -0.44 49.9% 15 26 30 33 35 39 46
Napoli 1750 28 28.18 -0.18 53.8% 15 22 26 28 31 35 43
Livorno 1724 24 24.88 -0.88 46.1% 10 18 22 25 28 31 40
Liguria 1696 24 26.77 -2.77 27.9% 13 20 24 27 29 33 43
Bari 1672 23 26.83 -3.83 20.5% 12 20 24 27 29 33 42
Lucchese 1644 21 25.24 -4.24 16.7% 11 19 23 25 28 32 40
Atalanta 1580 16 24.02 -8.02 2.8% 10 18 21 24 27 31 41
Fiorentina 1578 15 23.75 -8.75 1.6% 10 17 21 24 26 30 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM ATA BAR BOL FIO G1 IM JUV LR LIG LIV LUC NAP ROM TOR TRI
AC Milan —
1-1-0
3.88
2-0-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.67
2-0-0
3.95
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.53
0-2-0
2.60
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.20
1-1-0
3.42
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.79
0-2-0
2.65
Atalanta
0-1-1
1.50
 —
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
2.84
0-1-1
1.82
0-1-1
1.56
0-0-2
2.19
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
1.64
0-1-1
2.41
Bari
0-0-2
2.33
1-1-0
3.07
 —
0-0-2
2.14
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
1.70
0-1-1
1.82
1-0-1
1.84
0-1-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.07
1-1-0
2.22
0-1-1
2.16
Bologna
1-1-0
2.69
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
3.22
 —
0-1-1
3.27
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
2.52
0-2-0
2.59
0-0-2
2.69
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.58
1-1-0
3.55
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.71
Fiorentina
0-0-2
1.44
1-1-0
2.51
0-1-1
2.48
1-1-0
2.13
 —
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
1.65
1-1-0
2.48
0-1-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
1.97
Genova 1893
0-1-1
2.62
1-1-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.72
2-0-0
3.66
 —
0-2-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
2.79
2-0-0
2.96
0-1-1
2.77
Inter Milan
1-0-1
2.97
1-1-0
3.86
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.73
0-2-0
2.88
 —
1-0-1
2.63
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-1
3.90
1-1-0
3.81
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.45
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
3.10
Juventus
1-1-0
2.82
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.55
0-2-0
2.76
1-1-0
3.69
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.72
 —
0-2-0
2.90
1-0-1
3.37
2-0-0
3.63
1-1-0
3.56
1-1-0
3.58
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.81
Lazio Roma
0-2-0
2.75
1-1-0
3.72
1-0-1
3.53
2-0-0
2.66
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.55
0-2-0
2.45
 —
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
3.44
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
3.13
0-1-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.91
Liguria
0-1-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
1.49
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
1.93
 —
1-1-0
2.83
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.13
Livorno
0-0-2
2.18
1-1-0
2.75
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
1.81
1-1-0
2.83
0-0-2
1.86
0-1-1
1.56
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
1.93
0-1-1
2.54
 —
1-1-0
2.65
1-1-0
2.39
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
1.95
1-0-1
1.91
Lucchese
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.46
0-1-1
1.82
1-1-0
2.81
0-0-2
2.00
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
1.84
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.71
 —
0-1-1
2.37
1-0-1
1.67
0-1-1
2.04
1-1-0
1.62
Napoli
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.91
0-1-1
2.15
2-0-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
1.91
0-1-1
1.79
1-1-0
2.23
1-1-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.99
 —
0-1-1
2.16
0-2-0
2.32
1-0-1
2.48
Roma
1-0-1
2.54
2-0-0
3.44
1-0-1
3.28
0-0-2
2.83
2-0-0
3.11
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
2.45
1-1-0
2.42
1-1-0
2.61
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
3.69
1-1-0
3.19
 —
1-0-1
2.67
0-2-0
2.59
Torino
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
3.74
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.80
0-0-2
2.38
0-1-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.82
2-0-0
2.95
1-1-0
3.41
1-1-0
3.32
0-2-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.68
 —
1-0-1
2.58
Triestina
0-2-0
2.70
1-1-0
3.00
1-1-0
3.20
1-1-0
2.64
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
2.58
1-1-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.44
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.48
0-1-1
3.78
1-0-1
2.88
0-2-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.80
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +7.9
Allowed 0.80 -6.1
Differential 0.93 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%7.71%4.17%2.92%1.25%1.25%29.79%
17.71%13.75%8.54%3.96%1.04%0.83%35.83%
24.17%8.54%4.17%1.88%0.21%0.42%19.38%
32.92%3.96%1.88%0.83%0.21%—9.79%
41.25%1.04%0.21%0.21%——2.71%
5+1.25%0.83%0.42%———2.50%
Total29.79%35.83%19.38%9.79%2.71%2.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 1.84
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 9 9 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%6.67%3.33%———23.33%
116.67%16.67%3.33%3.33%——40.00%
2—6.67%10.00%———16.67%
33.33%6.67%3.33%———13.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total36.67%40.00%20.00%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 0.90 +0.53
SD 1.28 0.84 1.43
CV 0.89 0.94 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%3.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%46.67%
13.33%10.00%20.00%3.33%——36.67%
26.67%3.33%—3.33%——13.33%
3————3.33%—3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%23.33%23.33%13.33%10.00%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.67 -0.93
SD 0.83 1.45 1.64
CV 1.13 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%3.33%——6.67%36.67%
13.33%6.67%3.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%30.00%
26.67%6.67%—6.67%—3.33%23.33%
3—3.33%————3.33%
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total26.67%30.00%10.00%13.33%6.67%13.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.00 -0.83
SD 1.26 2.17 2.46
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 5 9 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—10.00%———26.67%
113.33%3.33%3.33%6.67%——26.67%
26.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%——23.33%
33.33%3.33%6.67%3.33%——16.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total40.00%20.00%26.67%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.13 +0.40
SD 1.33 1.11 1.57
CV 0.87 0.98 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%3.33%6.67%3.33%3.33%33.33%
1—20.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%50.00%
2—3.33%3.33%——3.33%10.00%
3—3.33%————3.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total10.00%36.67%23.33%13.33%6.67%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 2.00 -1.07
SD 0.94 1.46 1.86
CV 1.01 0.73 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%3.33%6.67%———16.67%
113.33%6.67%10.00%3.33%——33.33%
2—16.67%13.33%———30.00%
33.33%3.33%————6.67%
43.33%6.67%—3.33%——13.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%36.67%30.00%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.17 +0.50
SD 1.24 0.91 1.50
CV 0.74 0.78 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.67%————13.33%
110.00%20.00%6.67%3.33%——40.00%
26.67%13.33%————20.00%
33.33%10.00%—3.33%——16.67%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
Total30.00%53.33%10.00%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 0.93 +0.97
SD 1.81 0.83 1.83
CV 0.95 0.89 —
Max 9 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%3.33%3.33%———23.33%
110.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
210.00%10.00%————20.00%
33.33%6.67%————10.00%
4———————
5+3.33%—3.33%———6.67%
Total43.33%40.00%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 0.73 +0.70
SD 1.33 0.74 1.47
CV 0.93 1.01 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%————23.33%
1—16.67%10.00%6.67%—3.33%36.67%
26.67%6.67%3.33%———16.67%
310.00%3.33%————13.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+6.67%—————6.67%
Total40.00%36.67%13.33%6.67%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 1.00 +0.60
SD 1.52 1.17 2.18
CV 0.95 1.17 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%3.33%10.00%——36.67%
13.33%13.33%10.00%6.67%——33.33%
23.33%10.00%—6.67%——20.00%
3—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
4———————
5+3.33%—————3.33%
Total23.33%36.67%16.67%23.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.40 -0.30
SD 1.18 1.10 1.68
CV 1.08 0.79 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%16.67%6.67%3.33%——30.00%
110.00%23.33%3.33%3.33%6.67%3.33%50.00%
23.33%6.67%—3.33%——13.33%
3—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%13.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.50 -0.53
SD 0.85 1.28 1.53
CV 0.88 0.85 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%—10.00%10.00%3.33%46.67%
13.33%6.67%13.33%———23.33%
23.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%——20.00%
3——3.33%6.67%——10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.33%20.00%23.33%20.00%10.00%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.83 -0.90
SD 1.05 1.44 1.77
CV 1.12 0.79 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%——20.00%
110.00%20.00%13.33%6.67%——50.00%
2—3.33%10.00%3.33%——16.67%
36.67%3.33%3.33%———13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%30.00%30.00%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.30 -0.07
SD 0.94 1.02 1.36
CV 0.76 0.79 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%10.00%———26.67%
16.67%16.67%—6.67%——30.00%
26.67%16.67%3.33%———26.67%
3—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+3.33%—————3.33%
Total26.67%50.00%16.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.03 +0.43
SD 1.33 0.85 1.74
CV 0.91 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%3.33%3.33%—3.33%30.00%
110.00%13.33%10.00%———33.33%
23.33%6.67%3.33%—3.33%—16.67%
36.67%6.67%3.33%———16.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total30.00%40.00%20.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.23 +0.07
SD 1.18 1.33 1.89
CV 0.91 1.08 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
026.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%——43.33%
110.00%6.67%3.33%———20.00%
23.33%13.33%6.67%———23.33%
36.67%3.33%————10.00%
4———————
5+3.33%—————3.33%
Total50.00%30.00%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.73 +0.43
SD 1.39 0.87 1.70
CV 1.19 1.18 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Inter Milan 41 35.71 +5.29
2 AC Milan 38 33.05 +4.95
3 Genova 1893 38 33.21 +4.79
4 Juventus 39 34.71 +4.29
5 Bologna 37 32.90 +4.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fiorentina 15 23.75 -8.75
2 Atalanta 16 24.02 -8.02
3 Lucchese 21 25.24 -4.24
4 Bari 23 26.83 -3.83
5 Liguria 24 26.77 -2.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Genova 1893 7 Jan 2 – Feb 13 1 in 1,251
2 Juventus 4 Jan 2 – Jan 23 1 in 27
3 Livorno 3 Feb 6 – Feb 20 1 in 23
4 Inter Milan 3 Nov 14 – Nov 28 1 in 22
5 Triestina 3 Feb 13 – Feb 27 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atalanta 3 Sep 19 – Oct 3 1 in 79
2 Triestina 2 Apr 17 – Apr 24 1 in 79
3 Genova 1893 2 Feb 20 – Feb 27 1 in 50
4 Fiorentina 5 Jan 30 – Feb 27 1 in 48
5 Juventus 3 Nov 14 – Nov 28 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Triestina 12 Jan 23 – Apr 10 1 in 112
2 Juventus 15 Dec 12 – Mar 27 1 in 47
3 Genova 1893 8 Oct 10 – Dec 12 1 in 41
4 Liguria 5 Mar 20 – Apr 17 1 in 34
5 Lazio Roma 9 Sep 12 – Nov 14 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fiorentina 21 Nov 14 – Apr 17 1 in 222
2 Atalanta 13 Nov 28 – Mar 6 1 in 25
3 Lazio Roma 7 Feb 27 – Apr 10 1 in 22
4 Bari 8 Mar 6 – Apr 24 1 in 21
5 Torino 7 Jan 9 – Feb 20 1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Inter Milan27.30%17.87%12.90%10.30%8.40%6.59%5.49%3.94%2.92%2.01%1.19%0.64%0.25%0.16%0.03%0.01%
Juventus17.25%16.02%13.89%10.96%10.05%8.07%7.01%5.28%4.21%3.07%1.89%1.08%0.68%0.39%0.13%0.02%
AC Milan8.62%10.12%10.33%10.59%10.51%10.14%9.58%7.84%6.79%5.76%3.97%2.28%1.75%1.01%0.56%0.15%
Genova 18938.95%10.72%10.76%10.83%10.57%10.05%8.65%8.40%6.67%5.27%3.51%2.69%1.56%0.78%0.45%0.14%
Bologna7.32%9.11%10.18%10.25%10.16%9.99%9.92%9.20%7.46%5.88%4.25%3.08%1.71%0.82%0.49%0.18%
Roma6.45%8.20%9.42%10.02%9.73%10.42%9.39%9.19%8.38%6.16%4.85%3.44%2.35%1.24%0.59%0.17%
Triestina5.75%7.89%8.59%9.50%9.98%10.09%10.09%9.48%8.60%6.53%5.16%3.39%2.35%1.54%0.76%0.30%
Lazio Roma11.21%10.88%11.68%11.58%10.28%9.07%8.60%7.75%6.58%4.56%2.88%2.50%1.23%0.70%0.31%0.19%
Torino6.15%6.47%8.39%9.14%10.07%10.52%10.28%9.79%8.22%7.38%5.10%3.83%2.38%1.27%0.70%0.31%
Napoli0.55%1.08%1.66%2.84%3.63%4.88%6.51%7.76%9.64%11.99%11.98%10.82%10.35%7.58%5.35%3.38%
Liguria0.13%0.39%0.65%1.23%1.78%2.66%4.33%5.75%8.28%10.31%12.32%13.03%12.23%11.47%8.83%6.61%
Livorno0.03%0.15%0.21%0.49%0.82%1.38%1.88%3.32%4.34%6.16%9.45%11.51%13.41%15.05%16.54%15.26%
Bari0.19%0.77%0.75%1.13%2.09%3.16%3.82%5.68%6.95%9.32%11.17%12.07%12.19%12.30%10.29%8.12%
Lucchese0.05%0.19%0.31%0.50%0.85%1.31%2.11%3.24%5.08%6.75%9.24%11.34%13.73%15.07%15.39%14.84%
Atalanta0.03%0.10%0.16%0.41%0.62%0.97%1.19%1.82%3.19%4.48%6.82%9.23%12.38%15.41%19.53%23.66%
Fiorentina0.02%0.04%0.12%0.23%0.46%0.70%1.15%1.56%2.69%4.37%6.22%9.07%11.45%15.21%20.05%26.66%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+32.92%
Strong Edge
50.83%31.25%17.92%
Elo Value
Home Edge
177 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0118.79500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.72 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.67+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.7
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Inter Milan, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.070.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.15 * Some Luck: 3.15 to 4.72 * Lucky: 4.72 to 6.29 * Wild Swing: 6.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.21 * Close: 2.21 to 3.31 * Off: 3.31 to 4.42 * Way Off: 4.42 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.1 * A Surprise: 1.1 to 1.76 * Several Surprises: 1.76 to 2.42 * Many Surprises: 2.42 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.48 points
Some Luck
03.9310
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.12
Pinpoint
02.766
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
93.16%
Inter Milan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.61%
Fiorentina
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.55
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.55
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.30
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.1 to 0.15 * Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.2 * Well Above Noise: 0.2 and up.
Probability calibration
0.06
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.036
Well Within Noise
00.1000.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Inter Milan 99.96% 0.04%
Juventus 99.85% 0.15%
Lazio Roma 99.50% 0.50%
Genova 1893 99.41% 0.59%
Bologna 99.33% 0.67%
AC Milan 99.29% 0.71%
Roma 99.24% 0.76%
Torino 98.99% 1.01%
Triestina 98.94% 1.06%
Napoli 91.27% 8.73%
Liguria 84.56% 15.44%
Bari 81.59% 18.41%
Lucchese 69.77% 30.23%
Livorno 68.20% 31.80%
Atalanta 56.81% 43.19%
Fiorentina 53.29% 46.71%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1937-09-12 Liguria W 2-1 1786 1725 58.6% 31.4% 10.1% +5.2 2
1937-09-12 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1725 1786 10.1% 31.4% 58.6% -5.2 0
1937-09-12 Torino D 0-0 1732 1813 45.8% 33.1% 21.1% -2.2 1
1937-09-12 @ Bari D 0-0 1813 1732 21.1% 33.1% 45.8% +2.2 1
1937-09-12 Napoli W 3-2 1808 1736 59.3% 31.2% 9.5% +4.8 2
1937-09-12 @ Bologna L 2-3 1736 1808 9.5% 31.2% 59.3% -4.8 0
1937-09-12 Atalanta D 0-0 1779 1768 54.7% 32.2% 13.0% -4.0 1
1937-09-12 @ Genova 1893 D 0-0 1768 1779 13.0% 32.2% 54.7% +4.0 1
1937-09-12 Livorno W 2-0 1814 1736 59.7% 31.1% 9.2% +9.7 2
1937-09-12 @ Juventus L 0-2 1736 1814 9.2% 31.1% 59.7% -9.7 0
1937-09-12 Inter Milan D 3-3 1748 1803 48.7% 32.9% 18.4% -1.5 1
1937-09-12 @ Lucchese D 3-3 1803 1748 18.4% 32.9% 48.7% +1.5 1
1937-09-12 Fiorentina W 4-0 1754 1759 53.4% 32.4% 14.1% +26.6 2
1937-09-12 @ Roma L 0-4 1759 1754 14.1% 32.4% 53.4% -26.6 0
1937-09-12 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1747 1804 48.5% 32.9% 18.6% -2.7 1
1937-09-12 @ Triestina D 0-0 1804 1747 18.6% 32.9% 48.5% +2.7 1
1937-09-19 Juventus L 0-1 1772 1824 49.0% 32.9% 18.1% -18.6 1
1937-09-19 @ Atalanta W 1-0 1824 1772 18.1% 32.9% 49.0% +18.6 4
1937-09-19 AC Milan L 2-3 1730 1791 48.0% 33.0% 19.0% -16.4 1
1937-09-19 @ Bari W 3-2 1791 1730 19.0% 33.0% 48.0% +16.4 4
1937-09-19 Bologna W 2-1 1732 1812 45.9% 33.1% 21.0% +9.5 2
1937-09-19 @ Fiorentina L 1-2 1812 1732 21.0% 33.1% 45.9% -9.5 2
1937-09-19 Livorno W 3-1 1804 1726 59.7% 31.1% 9.2% +8.4 3
1937-09-19 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1726 1804 9.2% 31.1% 59.7% -8.4 0
1937-09-19 Genova 1893 W 2-1 1807 1775 56.4% 31.9% 11.7% +6.0 3
1937-09-19 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1775 1807 11.7% 31.9% 56.4% -6.0 1
1937-09-19 Triestina W 3-0 1732 1745 52.7% 32.5% 14.8% +21.1 2
1937-09-19 @ Napoli L 0-3 1745 1732 14.8% 32.5% 52.7% -21.1 1
1937-09-19 Roma D 1-1 1720 1781 48.0% 33.0% 19.0% -2.3 1
1937-09-19 @ Liguria D 1-1 1781 1720 19.0% 33.0% 48.0% +2.3 3
1937-09-19 Lucchese W 3-2 1816 1746 59.1% 31.2% 9.6% +4.8 3
1937-09-19 @ Torino L 2-3 1746 1816 9.6% 31.2% 59.1% -4.8 1
1937-09-26 Torino L 0-1 1807 1820 52.7% 32.5% 14.8% -19.9 4
1937-09-26 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1820 1807 14.8% 32.5% 52.7% +19.9 5
1937-09-26 Atalanta W 2-1 1803 1753 57.8% 31.6% 10.6% +5.5 4
1937-09-26 @ Bologna L 1-2 1753 1803 10.6% 31.6% 57.8% -5.5 1
1937-09-26 Fiorentina W 1-0 1769 1741 56.0% 32.0% 12.0% +6.5 3
1937-09-26 @ Genova 1893 L 0-1 1741 1769 12.0% 32.0% 56.0% -6.5 2
1937-09-26 Bari W 3-1 1842 1714 62.9% 29.9% 7.1% +6.6 6
1937-09-26 @ Juventus L 1-3 1714 1842 7.1% 29.9% 62.9% -6.6 1
1937-09-26 Liguria L 2-3 1718 1717 53.8% 32.4% 13.8% -18.2 0
1937-09-26 @ Livorno W 3-2 1717 1718 13.8% 32.4% 53.8% +18.2 3
1937-09-26 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1741 1813 46.9% 33.0% 20.0% -2.4 2
1937-09-26 @ Lucchese D 0-0 1813 1741 20.0% 33.0% 46.9% +2.4 4
1937-09-26 Napoli W 2-1 1783 1753 56.3% 31.9% 11.8% +6.0 5
1937-09-26 @ Roma L 1-2 1753 1783 11.8% 31.9% 56.3% -6.0 2
1937-09-26 Inter Milan D 1-1 1724 1812 45.0% 33.1% 21.9% -1.8 2
1937-09-26 @ Triestina D 1-1 1812 1724 21.9% 33.1% 45.0% +1.8 4
1937-10-03 Triestina L 0-3 1748 1722 55.9% 32.0% 12.1% -57.8 1
1937-10-03 @ Atalanta W 3-0 1722 1748 12.1% 32.0% 55.9% +57.8 4
1937-10-03 Genova 1893 W 2-0 1707 1775 47.3% 33.0% 19.7% +18.1 3
1937-10-03 @ Bari L 0-2 1775 1707 19.7% 33.0% 47.3% -18.1 3
1937-10-03 Fiorentina W 5-1 1814 1735 59.8% 31.1% 9.2% +15.2 6
1937-10-03 @ Inter Milan L 1-5 1735 1814 9.2% 31.1% 59.8% -15.2 2
1937-10-03 Roma D 1-1 1815 1789 56.0% 32.0% 12.0% -3.8 5
1937-10-03 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1789 1815 12.0% 32.0% 56.0% +3.8 6
1937-10-03 Livorno D 1-1 1739 1699 57.0% 31.8% 11.2% -4.0 3
1937-10-03 @ Lucchese D 1-1 1699 1739 11.2% 31.8% 57.0% +4.0 1
1937-10-03 AC Milan D 1-1 1747 1788 50.1% 32.8% 17.1% -2.7 3
1937-10-03 @ Napoli D 1-1 1788 1747 17.1% 32.8% 50.1% +2.7 5
1937-10-03 Bologna D 0-0 1736 1808 46.8% 33.0% 20.2% -2.3 4
1937-10-03 @ Liguria D 0-0 1808 1736 20.2% 33.0% 46.8% +2.3 5
1937-10-03 Juventus D 1-1 1840 1849 53.1% 32.5% 14.4% -3.2 6
1937-10-03 @ Torino D 1-1 1849 1840 14.4% 32.5% 53.1% +3.2 7
1937-10-10 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1790 1811 52.0% 32.6% 15.4% -2.2 6
1937-10-10 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1811 1790 15.4% 32.6% 52.0% +2.2 6
1937-10-10 Inter Milan W 1-0 1811 1829 52.2% 32.6% 15.2% +7.9 7
1937-10-10 @ Bologna L 0-1 1829 1811 15.2% 32.6% 52.2% -7.9 6
1937-10-10 Bari D 1-1 1720 1725 53.3% 32.4% 14.2% -3.3 3
1937-10-10 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1725 1720 14.2% 32.4% 53.3% +3.3 4
1937-10-10 Torino W 2-1 1757 1837 46.0% 33.1% 21.0% +9.4 5
1937-10-10 @ Genova 1893 L 1-2 1837 1757 21.0% 33.1% 46.0% -9.4 6
1937-10-10 Napoli W 2-1 1852 1744 61.7% 30.4% 7.9% +4.2 9
1937-10-10 @ Juventus L 1-2 1744 1852 7.9% 30.4% 61.7% -4.2 3
1937-10-10 Atalanta D 1-1 1703 1690 55.0% 32.2% 12.9% -3.6 2
1937-10-10 @ Livorno D 1-1 1690 1703 12.9% 32.2% 55.0% +3.6 2
1937-10-10 Lucchese W 5-0 1793 1735 58.3% 31.5% 10.2% +24.9 8
1937-10-10 @ Roma L 0-5 1735 1793 10.2% 31.5% 58.3% -24.9 3
1937-10-10 Liguria W 1-0 1780 1733 57.5% 31.7% 10.8% +6.0 6
1937-10-10 @ Triestina L 0-1 1733 1780 10.8% 31.7% 57.5% -6.0 4
1937-10-17 Roma L 0-2 1693 1818 40.7% 33.1% 26.1% -30.0 2
1937-10-17 @ Atalanta W 2-0 1818 1693 26.1% 33.1% 40.7% +30.0 10
1937-10-17 Livorno D 1-1 1728 1700 56.1% 32.0% 11.9% -3.8 5
1937-10-17 @ Bari D 1-1 1700 1728 11.9% 32.0% 56.1% +3.8 3
1937-10-17 AC Milan W 2-1 1822 1788 56.5% 31.9% 11.6% +5.9 8
1937-10-17 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1788 1822 11.6% 31.9% 56.5% -5.9 6
1937-10-17 Bologna W 2-0 1814 1819 53.4% 32.4% 14.2% +14.0 8
1937-10-17 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1819 1814 14.2% 32.4% 53.4% -14.0 7
1937-10-17 Juventus D 0-0 1710 1856 37.9% 33.1% 29.0% -0.7 4
1937-10-17 @ Lucchese D 0-0 1856 1710 29.0% 33.1% 37.9% +0.7 10
1937-10-17 Fiorentina W 3-0 1740 1716 55.7% 32.0% 12.2% +18.0 5
1937-10-17 @ Napoli L 0-3 1716 1740 12.2% 32.0% 55.7% -18.0 3
1937-10-17 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1727 1767 50.2% 32.8% 17.0% -19.0 4
1937-10-17 @ Liguria W 1-0 1767 1727 17.0% 32.8% 50.2% +19.1 7
1937-10-17 Triestina W 1-0 1828 1786 57.2% 31.7% 11.1% +6.1 8
1937-10-17 @ Torino L 0-1 1786 1828 11.1% 31.7% 57.2% -6.1 6
1937-10-24 Lucchese W 1-0 1663 1709 49.5% 32.8% 17.6% +8.8 4
1937-10-24 @ Atalanta L 0-1 1709 1663 17.6% 32.8% 49.5% -8.8 4
1937-10-24 Roma W 2-0 1805 1848 49.9% 32.8% 17.3% +16.4 9
1937-10-24 @ Bologna L 0-2 1848 1805 17.3% 32.8% 49.9% -16.4 10
1937-10-24 Juventus D 1-1 1698 1857 36.2% 33.1% 30.7% -0.4 4
1937-10-24 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1857 1698 30.7% 33.1% 36.2% +0.4 11
1937-10-24 Triestina D 2-2 1786 1779 54.3% 32.3% 13.4% -2.6 8
1937-10-24 @ Genova 1893 D 2-2 1779 1786 13.4% 32.3% 54.3% +2.6 7
1937-10-24 Napoli W 2-1 1828 1758 59.2% 31.2% 9.6% +5.0 10
1937-10-24 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1758 1828 9.6% 31.2% 59.2% -5.0 5
1937-10-24 Bari W 3-1 1828 1725 61.4% 30.5% 8.1% +7.5 10
1937-10-24 @ Lazio Roma L 1-3 1725 1828 8.1% 30.5% 61.4% -7.5 5
1937-10-24 AC Milan L 1-2 1704 1782 46.2% 33.0% 20.8% -16.7 3
1937-10-24 @ Livorno W 2-1 1782 1704 20.8% 33.0% 46.2% +16.7 8
1937-10-24 Liguria W 3-0 1834 1708 62.7% 30.0% 7.2% +11.2 10
1937-10-24 @ Torino L 0-3 1708 1834 7.2% 30.0% 62.7% -11.2 4
1937-11-07 Atalanta W 3-0 1799 1672 62.8% 30.0% 7.2% +11.1 10
1937-11-07 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1672 1799 7.2% 30.0% 62.8% -11.1 4
1937-11-07 Lucchese W 3-0 1821 1701 62.4% 30.1% 7.4% +11.5 11
1937-11-07 @ Bologna L 0-3 1701 1821 7.4% 30.1% 62.4% -11.5 4
1937-11-07 Liguria W 3-1 1698 1697 53.9% 32.4% 13.8% +11.8 6
1937-11-07 @ Fiorentina L 1-3 1697 1698 13.8% 32.4% 53.9% -11.8 4
1937-11-07 Inter Milan D 1-1 1783 1833 49.2% 32.9% 17.9% -2.5 9
1937-11-07 @ Genova 1893 D 1-1 1833 1783 17.9% 32.9% 49.2% +2.5 11
1937-11-07 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1857 1835 55.7% 32.0% 12.3% -3.7 12
1937-11-07 @ Juventus D 1-1 1835 1857 12.3% 32.0% 55.7% +3.7 11
1937-11-07 Napoli W 1-0 1687 1753 47.5% 33.0% 19.5% +9.5 5
1937-11-07 @ Livorno L 0-1 1753 1687 19.5% 33.0% 47.5% -9.5 5
1937-11-07 Torino W 2-1 1831 1845 52.6% 32.5% 14.8% +7.3 12
1937-11-07 @ Roma L 1-2 1845 1831 14.8% 32.5% 52.6% -7.3 10
1937-11-07 Bari W 6-0 1782 1717 58.8% 31.3% 9.8% +28.6 9
1937-11-07 @ Triestina L 0-6 1717 1782 9.8% 31.3% 58.8% -28.6 5
1937-11-14 Roma W 2-0 1688 1839 37.4% 33.1% 29.5% +23.9 7
1937-11-14 @ Bari L 0-2 1839 1688 29.5% 33.1% 37.4% -23.9 12
1937-11-14 Juventus W 2-1 1835 1854 52.2% 32.6% 15.2% +7.4 13
1937-11-14 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1854 1835 15.2% 32.6% 52.2% -7.4 12
1937-11-14 Livorno W 3-0 1839 1696 63.7% 29.6% 6.7% +10.3 13
1937-11-14 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1696 1839 6.7% 29.6% 63.7% -10.3 5
1937-11-14 Fiorentina W 2-1 1689 1710 52.0% 32.6% 15.4% +7.5 6
1937-11-14 @ Lucchese L 1-2 1710 1689 15.4% 32.6% 52.0% -7.5 6
1937-11-14 Genova 1893 D 2-2 1743 1781 50.4% 32.8% 16.8% -2.0 6
1937-11-14 @ Napoli D 2-2 1781 1743 16.8% 32.8% 50.4% +2.0 10
1937-11-14 Atalanta W 2-1 1685 1661 55.8% 32.0% 12.2% +6.2 6
1937-11-14 @ Liguria L 1-2 1661 1685 12.2% 32.0% 55.8% -6.2 4
1937-11-14 Bologna W 3-1 1838 1833 54.3% 32.3% 13.5% +11.6 12
1937-11-14 @ Torino L 1-3 1833 1838 13.5% 32.3% 54.3% -11.6 11
1937-11-14 AC Milan D 0-0 1811 1810 53.9% 32.4% 13.8% -3.8 10
1937-11-14 @ Triestina D 0-0 1810 1811 13.8% 32.4% 53.9% +3.8 11
1937-11-21 Roma W 1-0 1814 1815 53.7% 32.4% 13.9% +7.3 13
1937-11-21 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1815 1814 13.9% 32.4% 53.7% -7.3 12
1937-11-21 Napoli W 2-0 1655 1741 45.3% 33.1% 21.7% +19.3 6
1937-11-21 @ Atalanta L 0-2 1741 1655 21.7% 33.1% 45.3% -19.3 6
1937-11-21 Bari W 4-1 1821 1712 61.7% 30.4% 7.9% +10.3 13
1937-11-21 @ Bologna L 1-4 1712 1821 7.9% 30.4% 61.7% -10.3 7
1937-11-21 Triestina D 2-2 1702 1807 43.2% 33.1% 23.7% -1.1 7
1937-11-21 @ Fiorentina D 2-2 1807 1702 23.7% 33.1% 43.2% +1.1 11
1937-11-21 Genova 1893 L 1-2 1846 1783 58.7% 31.4% 9.9% -20.8 12
1937-11-21 @ Juventus W 2-1 1783 1846 9.9% 31.4% 58.7% +20.9 12
1937-11-21 Inter Milan L 1-3 1849 1843 54.4% 32.3% 13.4% -33.5 13
1937-11-21 @ Lazio Roma W 3-1 1843 1849 13.4% 32.3% 54.4% +33.5 15
1937-11-21 Torino D 1-1 1686 1849 35.6% 33.0% 31.4% -0.3 6
1937-11-21 @ Livorno D 1-1 1849 1686 31.4% 33.0% 35.6% +0.3 13
1937-11-21 Lucchese W 2-1 1691 1697 53.4% 32.4% 14.2% +7.0 8
1937-11-21 @ Liguria L 1-2 1697 1691 14.2% 32.4% 53.4% -7.0 6
1937-11-28 Atalanta W 2-1 1702 1674 56.1% 32.0% 11.9% +6.1 9
1937-11-28 @ Bari L 1-2 1674 1702 11.9% 32.0% 56.1% -6.1 6
1937-11-28 Livorno W 4-1 1803 1686 62.3% 30.2% 7.5% +9.8 14
1937-11-28 @ Genova 1893 L 1-4 1686 1803 7.5% 30.2% 62.3% -9.8 6
1937-11-28 Liguria W 2-1 1876 1698 65.7% 28.7% 5.6% +3.0 17
1937-11-28 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1698 1876 5.6% 28.7% 65.7% -3.0 8
1937-11-28 AC Milan D 1-1 1690 1821 39.8% 33.1% 27.0% -1.0 7
1937-11-28 @ Lucchese D 1-1 1821 1690 27.0% 33.1% 39.8% +1.0 14
1937-11-28 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1722 1816 44.4% 33.1% 22.5% +10.5 8
1937-11-28 @ Napoli L 0-1 1816 1722 22.5% 33.1% 44.4% -10.5 13
1937-11-28 Juventus W 2-1 1807 1825 52.2% 32.6% 15.2% +7.4 14
1937-11-28 @ Roma L 1-2 1825 1807 15.2% 32.6% 52.2% -7.4 12
1937-11-28 Fiorentina W 2-0 1850 1701 64.1% 29.5% 6.5% +6.9 15
1937-11-28 @ Torino L 0-2 1701 1850 6.5% 29.5% 64.1% -6.9 7
1937-11-28 Bologna W 3-1 1808 1831 51.8% 32.6% 15.6% +13.1 13
1937-11-28 @ Triestina L 1-3 1831 1808 15.6% 32.6% 51.8% -13.1 13
1937-12-12 Fiorentina W 3-1 1822 1694 62.8% 30.0% 7.2% +6.6 16
1937-12-12 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1694 1822 7.2% 30.0% 62.8% -6.6 7
1937-12-12 Inter Milan D 1-1 1668 1879 29.1% 32.7% 38.2% +0.7 7
1937-12-12 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1879 1668 38.2% 32.7% 29.1% -0.7 18
1937-12-12 Genova 1893 D 2-2 1818 1813 54.2% 32.3% 13.5% -2.6 14
1937-12-12 @ Bologna D 2-2 1813 1818 13.5% 32.3% 54.2% +2.6 15
1937-12-12 Triestina W 2-0 1818 1821 53.5% 32.4% 14.1% +13.9 14
1937-12-12 @ Juventus L 0-2 1821 1818 14.1% 32.4% 53.5% -13.9 13
1937-12-12 Torino W 6-0 1805 1857 49.0% 32.9% 18.1% +47.1 15
1937-12-12 @ Lazio Roma L 0-6 1857 1805 18.1% 32.9% 49.0% -47.1 15
1937-12-12 Roma L 0-2 1676 1815 38.9% 33.1% 28.0% -29.0 6
1937-12-12 @ Livorno W 2-0 1815 1676 28.0% 33.1% 38.9% +29.0 16
1937-12-12 Napoli D 2-2 1689 1732 49.8% 32.8% 17.4% -2.0 8
1937-12-12 @ Lucchese D 2-2 1732 1689 17.4% 32.8% 49.8% +2.0 9
1937-12-12 Bari W 5-0 1695 1708 52.7% 32.5% 14.8% +33.9 10
1937-12-12 @ Liguria L 0-5 1708 1695 14.8% 32.5% 52.7% -33.9 9
1937-12-19 Lucchese W 2-1 1674 1687 52.7% 32.5% 14.8% +7.2 11
1937-12-19 @ Bari L 1-2 1687 1674 14.8% 32.5% 52.7% -7.2 8
1937-12-19 Livorno L 1-2 1688 1647 57.1% 31.8% 11.2% -20.3 7
1937-12-19 @ Fiorentina W 2-1 1647 1688 11.2% 31.8% 57.1% +20.3 8
1937-12-19 AC Milan L 0-1 1816 1829 52.7% 32.5% 14.8% -19.9 15
1937-12-19 @ Genova 1893 W 1-0 1829 1816 14.8% 32.5% 52.7% +19.9 18
1937-12-19 Torino W 1-0 1878 1809 59.1% 31.2% 9.7% +5.4 20
1937-12-19 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1809 1878 9.7% 31.2% 59.1% -5.4 15
1937-12-19 Bologna D 0-0 1832 1815 55.2% 32.1% 12.7% -4.1 15
1937-12-19 @ Juventus D 0-0 1815 1832 12.7% 32.1% 55.2% +4.1 15
1937-12-19 Atalanta W 4-0 1852 1669 66.0% 28.5% 5.5% +11.0 17
1937-12-19 @ Lazio Roma L 0-4 1669 1852 5.5% 28.5% 66.0% -11.0 7
1937-12-19 Liguria W 3-2 1734 1729 54.2% 32.3% 13.5% +6.4 11
1937-12-19 @ Napoli L 2-3 1729 1734 13.5% 32.3% 54.2% -6.4 10
1937-12-19 Roma D 0-0 1807 1844 50.5% 32.8% 16.7% -3.1 14
1937-12-19 @ Triestina D 0-0 1844 1807 16.7% 32.8% 50.5% +3.1 17
1938-01-02 Bologna L 0-1 1848 1820 56.2% 31.9% 11.9% -21.2 18
1938-01-02 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1820 1848 11.9% 31.9% 56.2% +21.2 17
1938-01-02 Napoli W 3-1 1682 1741 48.2% 32.9% 18.8% +15.1 13
1938-01-02 @ Bari L 1-3 1741 1682 18.8% 32.9% 48.2% -15.1 11
1938-01-02 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1667 1863 31.1% 32.8% 36.1% +0.4 8
1938-01-02 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1863 1667 36.1% 32.8% 31.1% -0.4 18
1938-01-02 Triestina L 0-1 1667 1804 39.1% 33.1% 27.7% -15.5 8
1938-01-02 @ Livorno W 1-0 1804 1667 27.7% 33.1% 39.1% +15.4 16
1938-01-02 Genova 1893 L 0-4 1679 1796 41.7% 33.1% 25.1% -58.1 8
1938-01-02 @ Lucchese W 4-0 1796 1679 25.1% 33.1% 41.7% +58.1 17
1938-01-02 Inter Milan D 1-1 1847 1884 50.5% 32.8% 16.8% -2.8 18
1938-01-02 @ Roma D 1-1 1884 1847 16.8% 32.8% 50.5% +2.8 21
1938-01-02 Juventus L 1-3 1723 1828 43.1% 33.1% 23.8% -27.2 10
1938-01-02 @ Liguria W 3-1 1828 1723 23.8% 33.1% 43.1% +27.2 17
1938-01-02 Atalanta W 2-1 1804 1658 64.0% 29.5% 6.5% +3.5 17
1938-01-02 @ Torino L 1-2 1658 1804 6.5% 29.5% 64.0% -3.5 7
1938-01-09 Fiorentina D 1-1 1654 1668 52.6% 32.5% 14.8% -3.1 8
1938-01-09 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1668 1654 14.8% 32.5% 52.6% +3.2 9
1938-01-09 Livorno W 5-1 1841 1652 66.3% 28.4% 5.3% +8.9 19
1938-01-09 @ Bologna L 1-5 1652 1841 5.3% 28.4% 66.3% -8.9 8
1938-01-09 Bari W 9-2 1886 1697 66.3% 28.4% 5.3% +12.1 23
1938-01-09 @ Inter Milan L 2-9 1697 1886 5.3% 28.4% 66.3% -12.2 13
1938-01-09 AC Milan W 2-0 1855 1827 56.1% 32.0% 11.9% +12.2 19
1938-01-09 @ Juventus L 0-2 1827 1855 11.9% 32.0% 56.1% -12.2 18
1938-01-09 Torino D 1-1 1726 1808 45.8% 33.1% 21.2% -1.9 12
1938-01-09 @ Napoli D 1-1 1808 1726 21.2% 33.1% 45.8% +1.9 18
1938-01-09 Genova 1893 L 1-3 1844 1854 53.0% 32.5% 14.6% -32.7 18
1938-01-09 @ Roma W 3-1 1854 1844 14.6% 32.5% 53.0% +32.7 19
1938-01-09 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1696 1863 35.1% 33.0% 31.9% +12.6 12
1938-01-09 @ Liguria L 1-2 1863 1696 31.9% 33.0% 35.1% -12.6 18
1938-01-09 Lucchese D 0-0 1820 1621 66.8% 28.1% 5.1% -6.3 17
1938-01-09 @ Triestina D 0-0 1621 1820 5.1% 28.1% 66.8% +6.3 9
1938-01-16 Genova 1893 L 3-4 1651 1887 26.1% 32.4% 41.6% -10.1 8
1938-01-16 @ Atalanta W 4-3 1887 1651 41.6% 32.4% 26.1% +10.1 21
1938-01-16 Roma L 1-4 1671 1811 38.7% 33.1% 28.2% -35.4 9
1938-01-16 @ Fiorentina W 4-1 1811 1671 28.2% 33.1% 38.7% +35.3 20
1938-01-16 Lucchese W 4-0 1899 1628 70.4% 25.9% 3.6% +6.9 25
1938-01-16 @ Inter Milan L 0-4 1628 1899 3.6% 25.9% 70.4% -6.9 9
1938-01-16 Triestina W 2-1 1850 1813 56.8% 31.8% 11.4% +5.9 20
1938-01-16 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1813 1850 11.4% 31.8% 56.8% -5.9 17
1938-01-16 Juventus L 0-1 1643 1867 27.4% 32.5% 40.1% -12.0 8
1938-01-16 @ Livorno W 1-0 1867 1643 40.1% 32.5% 27.4% +12.0 21
1938-01-16 Bologna D 1-1 1724 1850 40.5% 33.1% 26.3% -1.1 13
1938-01-16 @ Napoli D 1-1 1850 1724 26.3% 33.1% 40.5% +1.1 20
1938-01-16 AC Milan D 1-1 1708 1815 42.9% 33.1% 24.0% -1.5 13
1938-01-16 @ Liguria D 1-1 1815 1708 24.0% 33.1% 42.9% +1.4 19
1938-01-16 Bari L 2-4 1810 1685 62.7% 30.0% 7.3% -34.3 18
1938-01-16 @ Torino W 4-2 1685 1810 7.3% 30.0% 62.7% +34.3 15
1938-01-23 Bari W 5-1 1817 1719 61.0% 30.7% 8.3% +14.0 21
1938-01-23 @ AC Milan L 1-5 1719 1817 8.3% 30.7% 61.0% -14.0 15
1938-01-23 Fiorentina D 0-0 1851 1636 67.7% 27.6% 4.7% -6.5 21
1938-01-23 @ Bologna D 0-0 1636 1851 4.7% 27.6% 67.7% +6.5 10
1938-01-23 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1897 1856 57.1% 31.8% 11.2% +5.8 23
1938-01-23 @ Genova 1893 L 1-2 1856 1897 11.2% 31.8% 57.1% -5.8 20
1938-01-23 Atalanta W 5-0 1879 1641 68.8% 26.9% 4.2% +10.2 23
1938-01-23 @ Juventus L 0-5 1641 1879 4.2% 26.9% 68.8% -10.2 8
1938-01-23 Inter Milan D 0-0 1631 1906 21.7% 31.8% 46.5% +2.2 9
1938-01-23 @ Livorno D 0-0 1906 1631 46.5% 31.8% 21.7% -2.2 26
1938-01-23 Torino D 2-2 1621 1775 36.8% 33.1% 30.1% -0.4 10
1938-01-23 @ Lucchese D 2-2 1775 1621 30.1% 33.1% 36.8% +0.4 19
1938-01-23 Liguria W 1-0 1847 1707 63.6% 29.7% 6.8% +3.8 22
1938-01-23 @ Roma L 0-1 1707 1847 6.8% 29.7% 63.6% -3.8 13
1938-01-23 Napoli W 3-0 1807 1723 60.2% 30.9% 8.9% +13.7 19
1938-01-23 @ Triestina L 0-3 1723 1807 8.9% 30.9% 60.2% -13.7 13
1938-01-30 Bologna L 1-2 1631 1844 28.8% 32.6% 38.6% -11.7 8
1938-01-30 @ Atalanta W 2-1 1844 1631 38.6% 32.6% 28.8% +11.7 23
1938-01-30 Juventus D 0-0 1705 1889 32.6% 32.9% 34.5% +0.1 16
1938-01-30 @ Bari D 0-0 1889 1705 34.5% 32.9% 32.6% -0.1 24
1938-01-30 Genova 1893 L 1-2 1642 1902 23.2% 32.0% 44.7% -10.0 10
1938-01-30 @ Fiorentina W 2-1 1902 1642 44.7% 32.0% 23.2% +10.0 25
1938-01-30 Triestina L 1-2 1903 1821 60.0% 31.0% 9.0% -21.3 26
1938-01-30 @ Inter Milan W 2-1 1821 1903 9.0% 31.0% 60.0% +21.3 21
1938-01-30 Lucchese W 3-0 1850 1620 68.4% 27.2% 4.4% +6.6 22
1938-01-30 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1620 1850 4.4% 27.2% 68.4% -6.6 10
1938-01-30 Roma D 2-2 1709 1851 38.5% 33.1% 28.4% -0.6 14
1938-01-30 @ Napoli D 2-2 1851 1709 28.4% 33.1% 38.5% +0.6 23
1938-01-30 Livorno D 1-1 1703 1633 59.2% 31.2% 9.6% -4.4 14
1938-01-30 @ Liguria D 1-1 1633 1703 9.6% 31.2% 59.2% +4.4 10
1938-01-30 AC Milan D 0-0 1776 1830 48.7% 32.9% 18.4% -2.7 20
1938-01-30 @ Torino D 0-0 1830 1776 18.4% 32.9% 48.7% +2.7 22
1938-02-06 Napoli W 3-1 1833 1708 62.7% 30.0% 7.3% +6.7 24
1938-02-06 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1708 1833 7.3% 30.0% 62.7% -6.7 14
1938-02-06 Liguria W 3-2 1856 1699 64.6% 29.2% 6.2% +3.1 25
1938-02-06 @ Bologna L 2-3 1699 1856 6.2% 29.2% 64.6% -3.1 14
1938-02-06 Inter Milan L 0-3 1632 1882 24.4% 32.2% 43.4% -30.1 10
1938-02-06 @ Fiorentina W 3-0 1882 1632 43.4% 32.2% 24.4% +30.1 28
1938-02-06 Bari W 4-1 1912 1705 67.3% 27.9% 4.9% +6.2 27
1938-02-06 @ Genova 1893 L 1-4 1705 1912 4.9% 27.9% 67.3% -6.2 16
1938-02-06 Torino W 3-0 1889 1773 62.2% 30.2% 7.6% +11.7 26
1938-02-06 @ Juventus L 0-3 1773 1889 7.6% 30.2% 62.2% -11.7 20
1938-02-06 Lucchese W 2-1 1638 1614 55.8% 32.0% 12.2% +6.2 12
1938-02-06 @ Livorno L 1-2 1614 1638 12.2% 32.0% 55.8% -6.2 10
1938-02-06 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1851 1857 53.3% 32.4% 14.2% +7.0 25
1938-02-06 @ Roma L 1-2 1857 1851 14.2% 32.4% 53.3% -7.0 22
1938-02-06 Atalanta D 0-0 1842 1619 68.1% 27.4% 4.5% -6.5 22
1938-02-06 @ Triestina D 0-0 1619 1842 4.5% 27.4% 68.1% +6.5 9
1938-02-13 Livorno L 1-3 1626 1644 52.2% 32.6% 15.2% -32.3 9
1938-02-13 @ Atalanta W 3-1 1644 1626 15.2% 32.6% 52.2% +32.3 14
1938-02-13 Fiorentina W 1-0 1699 1602 61.0% 30.7% 8.4% +4.7 18
1938-02-13 @ Bari L 0-1 1602 1699 8.4% 30.7% 61.0% -4.7 10
1938-02-13 Bologna W 2-0 1912 1859 58.0% 31.5% 10.5% +10.9 30
1938-02-13 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1859 1912 10.5% 31.5% 58.0% -10.9 25
1938-02-13 AC Milan D 1-1 1850 1840 54.6% 32.2% 13.1% -3.5 23
1938-02-13 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1840 1850 13.1% 32.2% 54.6% +3.5 25
1938-02-13 Roma W 2-0 1608 1858 24.3% 32.2% 43.5% +31.4 12
1938-02-13 @ Lucchese L 0-2 1858 1608 43.5% 32.2% 24.3% -31.4 25
1938-02-13 Juventus D 1-1 1702 1901 30.6% 32.8% 36.6% +0.4 15
1938-02-13 @ Napoli D 1-1 1901 1702 36.6% 32.8% 30.6% -0.4 27
1938-02-13 Triestina L 1-2 1696 1836 38.7% 33.1% 28.2% -14.4 14
1938-02-13 @ Liguria W 2-1 1836 1696 28.2% 33.1% 38.7% +14.4 24
1938-02-13 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1761 1919 36.4% 33.1% 30.6% -14.6 20
1938-02-13 @ Torino W 1-0 1919 1761 30.6% 33.1% 36.4% +14.6 29
1938-02-20 Inter Milan W 1-0 1843 1923 46.0% 33.1% 20.9% +10.0 27
1938-02-20 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1923 1843 20.9% 33.1% 46.0% -10.0 30
1938-02-20 Lazio Roma L 0-2 1848 1846 54.0% 32.3% 13.7% -38.4 25
1938-02-20 @ Bologna W 2-0 1846 1848 13.7% 32.3% 54.0% +38.4 25
1938-02-20 Napoli L 1-3 1597 1702 43.1% 33.1% 23.8% -27.2 10
1938-02-20 @ Fiorentina W 3-1 1702 1597 23.8% 33.1% 43.1% +27.2 17
1938-02-20 Liguria L 0-2 1933 1681 69.5% 26.5% 4.0% -48.0 29
1938-02-20 @ Genova 1893 W 2-0 1681 1933 4.0% 26.5% 69.5% +48.0 16
1938-02-20 Lucchese W 1-0 1901 1639 70.0% 26.2% 3.8% +2.0 29
1938-02-20 @ Juventus L 0-1 1639 1901 3.8% 26.2% 70.0% -2.0 12
1938-02-20 Bari W 1-0 1676 1704 51.4% 32.7% 16.0% +8.2 16
1938-02-20 @ Livorno L 0-1 1704 1676 16.0% 32.7% 51.4% -8.2 18
1938-02-20 Atalanta W 2-1 1827 1593 68.6% 27.1% 4.3% +2.2 27
1938-02-20 @ Roma L 1-2 1593 1827 4.3% 27.1% 68.6% -2.2 9
1938-02-20 Torino W 1-0 1850 1746 61.4% 30.5% 8.1% +4.5 26
1938-02-20 @ Triestina L 0-1 1746 1850 8.1% 30.5% 61.4% -4.5 20
1938-02-27 Livorno W 1-0 1853 1684 65.2% 28.9% 5.9% +3.3 29
1938-02-27 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1684 1853 5.9% 28.9% 65.2% -3.3 16
1938-02-27 Lazio Roma W 5-1 1695 1885 32.0% 32.9% 35.2% +42.5 20
1938-02-27 @ Bari L 1-5 1885 1695 35.2% 32.9% 32.0% -42.5 25
1938-02-27 Fiorentina W 5-2 1903 1570 73.3% 24.0% 2.7% +2.8 31
1938-02-27 @ Juventus L 2-5 1570 1903 2.7% 24.0% 73.3% -2.8 10
1938-02-27 Atalanta W 3-2 1637 1591 57.5% 31.7% 10.9% +5.3 14
1938-02-27 @ Lucchese L 2-3 1591 1637 10.9% 31.7% 57.5% -5.3 9
1938-02-27 Inter Milan D 1-1 1729 1913 32.8% 32.9% 34.3% +0.1 18
1938-02-27 @ Napoli D 1-1 1913 1729 34.3% 32.9% 32.8% -0.1 31
1938-02-27 Bologna L 0-1 1829 1810 55.4% 32.1% 12.5% -20.9 27
1938-02-27 @ Roma W 1-0 1810 1829 12.5% 32.1% 55.4% +20.9 27
1938-02-27 Torino L 0-3 1729 1742 52.7% 32.5% 14.8% -54.6 16
1938-02-27 @ Liguria W 3-0 1742 1729 14.8% 32.5% 52.7% +54.6 22
1938-02-27 Genova 1893 W 2-1 1855 1885 51.1% 32.7% 16.2% +7.8 28
1938-02-27 @ Triestina L 1-2 1885 1855 16.2% 32.7% 51.1% -7.8 29
1938-03-06 AC Milan D 0-0 1586 1857 22.1% 31.9% 46.0% +2.1 10
1938-03-06 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1857 1586 46.0% 31.9% 22.1% -2.1 30
1938-03-06 Triestina D 0-0 1738 1863 40.7% 33.1% 26.2% -1.2 21
1938-03-06 @ Bari D 0-0 1863 1738 26.2% 33.1% 40.7% +1.2 29
1938-03-06 Genova 1893 D 0-0 1913 1878 56.7% 31.9% 11.5% -4.4 32
1938-03-06 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1878 1913 11.5% 31.9% 56.7% +4.4 30
1938-03-06 Juventus D 1-1 1842 1905 47.8% 33.0% 19.2% -2.3 26
1938-03-06 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1905 1842 19.2% 33.0% 47.8% +2.3 32
1938-03-06 Bologna D 3-3 1642 1831 32.1% 32.9% 35.0% +0.1 15
1938-03-06 @ Lucchese D 3-3 1831 1642 35.0% 32.9% 32.1% -0.1 28
1938-03-06 Livorno D 1-1 1730 1681 57.7% 31.6% 10.7% -4.1 19
1938-03-06 @ Napoli D 1-1 1681 1730 10.7% 31.6% 57.7% +4.1 17
1938-03-06 Fiorentina D 1-1 1675 1567 61.6% 30.4% 7.9% -4.8 17
1938-03-06 @ Liguria D 1-1 1567 1675 7.9% 30.4% 61.6% +4.8 11
1938-03-06 Roma W 3-1 1797 1808 52.8% 32.5% 14.7% +12.5 24
1938-03-06 @ Torino L 1-3 1808 1797 14.7% 32.5% 52.8% -12.5 27
1938-03-13 Triestina D 0-0 1855 1864 53.0% 32.5% 14.5% -3.6 31
1938-03-13 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1864 1855 14.5% 32.5% 53.0% +3.6 30
1938-03-13 Liguria W 2-0 1588 1670 45.8% 33.1% 21.2% +19.0 12
1938-03-13 @ Atalanta L 0-2 1670 1588 21.2% 33.1% 45.8% -19.0 17
1938-03-13 Torino W 2-0 1830 1809 55.6% 32.1% 12.3% +12.5 30
1938-03-13 @ Bologna L 0-2 1809 1830 12.3% 32.1% 55.6% -12.5 24
1938-03-13 Lucchese D 0-0 1572 1642 47.0% 33.0% 20.0% -2.4 12
1938-03-13 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1642 1572 20.0% 33.0% 47.0% +2.4 16
1938-03-13 Napoli W 2-1 1882 1725 64.5% 29.2% 6.2% +3.3 32
1938-03-13 @ Genova 1893 L 1-2 1725 1882 6.2% 29.2% 64.5% -3.3 19
1938-03-13 Inter Milan W 2-1 1908 1909 53.7% 32.4% 13.9% +6.9 34
1938-03-13 @ Juventus L 1-2 1909 1908 13.9% 32.4% 53.7% -6.9 32
1938-03-13 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1685 1840 36.7% 33.1% 30.2% +12.9 19
1938-03-13 @ Livorno L 0-1 1840 1685 30.2% 33.1% 36.7% -12.9 26
1938-03-13 Bari W 3-2 1796 1737 58.4% 31.4% 10.2% +5.0 29
1938-03-13 @ Roma L 2-3 1737 1796 10.2% 31.4% 58.4% -5.0 21
1938-03-20 Bologna L 0-1 1732 1843 42.3% 33.1% 24.5% -16.4 21
1938-03-20 @ Bari W 1-0 1843 1732 24.5% 33.1% 42.3% +16.4 32
1938-03-20 Juventus L 1-2 1885 1915 51.2% 32.7% 16.1% -18.3 32
1938-03-20 @ Genova 1893 W 2-1 1915 1885 16.1% 32.7% 51.2% +18.3 36
1938-03-20 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1902 1827 59.5% 31.1% 9.4% +8.5 34
1938-03-20 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1827 1902 9.4% 31.1% 59.5% -8.5 26
1938-03-20 Liguria D 0-0 1645 1651 53.3% 32.4% 14.3% -3.7 17
1938-03-20 @ Lucchese D 0-0 1651 1645 14.3% 32.4% 53.3% +3.7 18
1938-03-20 Atalanta W 1-0 1722 1607 62.1% 30.3% 7.6% +4.3 21
1938-03-20 @ Napoli L 0-1 1607 1722 7.6% 30.3% 62.1% -4.3 12
1938-03-20 AC Milan W 3-1 1801 1851 49.1% 32.9% 18.0% +14.6 31
1938-03-20 @ Roma L 1-3 1851 1801 18.0% 32.9% 49.1% -14.6 31
1938-03-20 Livorno W 4-1 1796 1698 61.1% 30.6% 8.3% +10.8 26
1938-03-20 @ Torino L 1-4 1698 1796 8.3% 30.6% 61.1% -10.8 19
1938-03-20 Fiorentina W 2-1 1867 1570 71.7% 25.1% 3.2% +1.6 32
1938-03-20 @ Triestina L 1-2 1570 1867 3.2% 25.1% 71.7% -1.6 12
1938-03-27 Lucchese W 4-0 1836 1641 66.6% 28.2% 5.2% +10.3 33
1938-03-27 @ AC Milan L 0-4 1641 1836 5.2% 28.2% 66.6% -10.3 17
1938-03-27 Bari D 0-0 1603 1715 42.2% 33.1% 24.7% -1.5 13
1938-03-27 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1715 1603 24.7% 33.1% 42.2% +1.5 22
1938-03-27 Triestina D 0-0 1859 1869 53.0% 32.5% 14.5% -3.6 33
1938-03-27 @ Bologna D 0-0 1869 1859 14.5% 32.5% 53.0% +3.6 33
1938-03-27 Torino L 1-2 1568 1807 25.6% 32.3% 42.0% -10.8 12
1938-03-27 @ Fiorentina W 2-1 1807 1568 42.0% 32.3% 25.6% +10.8 28
1938-03-27 Roma D 0-0 1933 1815 62.3% 30.2% 7.5% -5.5 37
1938-03-27 @ Juventus D 0-0 1815 1933 7.5% 30.2% 62.3% +5.5 32
1938-03-27 Napoli D 0-0 1818 1726 60.7% 30.8% 8.6% -5.2 27
1938-03-27 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1726 1818 8.6% 30.8% 60.7% +5.2 22
1938-03-27 Genova 1893 L 0-1 1687 1867 33.3% 32.9% 33.8% -13.8 19
1938-03-27 @ Livorno W 1-0 1867 1687 33.8% 32.9% 33.3% +13.7 34
1938-03-27 Inter Milan W 3-1 1654 1910 23.7% 32.1% 44.2% +27.5 20
1938-03-27 @ Liguria L 1-3 1910 1654 44.2% 32.1% 23.7% -27.5 34
1938-04-03 Liguria D 0-0 1717 1682 56.6% 31.9% 11.5% -4.4 23
1938-04-03 @ Bari D 0-0 1682 1717 11.5% 31.9% 56.6% +4.3 21
1938-04-03 AC Milan L 0-1 1557 1847 20.2% 31.6% 48.2% -9.5 12
1938-04-03 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1847 1557 48.2% 31.6% 20.2% +9.5 35
1938-04-03 Bologna L 1-3 1881 1856 55.9% 32.0% 12.1% -34.4 34
1938-04-03 @ Genova 1893 W 3-1 1856 1881 12.1% 32.0% 55.9% +34.4 35
1938-04-03 Atalanta W 1-0 1883 1601 70.9% 25.6% 3.5% +1.8 36
1938-04-03 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1601 1883 3.5% 25.6% 70.9% -1.8 13
1938-04-03 Lucchese W 2-1 1732 1631 61.2% 30.6% 8.2% +4.3 24
1938-04-03 @ Napoli L 1-2 1631 1732 8.2% 30.6% 61.2% -4.3 17
1938-04-03 Livorno W 1-0 1821 1673 64.0% 29.5% 6.5% +3.7 34
1938-04-03 @ Roma L 0-1 1673 1821 6.5% 29.5% 64.0% -3.7 19
1938-04-03 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1818 1813 54.2% 32.3% 13.5% +7.2 30
1938-04-03 @ Torino L 0-1 1813 1818 13.5% 32.3% 54.2% -7.1 27
1938-04-03 Juventus W 2-0 1873 1927 48.7% 32.9% 18.4% +17.2 35
1938-04-03 @ Triestina L 0-2 1927 1873 18.4% 32.9% 48.7% -17.2 37
1938-04-10 Genova 1893 D 2-2 1856 1846 54.7% 32.2% 13.1% -2.6 36
1938-04-10 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1846 1856 13.1% 32.2% 54.7% +2.6 35
1938-04-10 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1599 1806 29.6% 32.7% 37.6% +0.7 14
1938-04-10 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1806 1599 37.6% 32.7% 29.6% -0.7 28
1938-04-10 Juventus D 0-0 1890 1910 52.1% 32.6% 15.3% -3.4 36
1938-04-10 @ Bologna D 0-0 1910 1890 15.3% 32.6% 52.1% +3.4 38
1938-04-10 Fiorentina D 1-1 1670 1548 62.5% 30.1% 7.4% -5.0 20
1938-04-10 @ Livorno D 1-1 1548 1670 7.4% 30.1% 62.5% +5.0 13
1938-04-10 Bari W 2-1 1627 1712 45.3% 33.1% 21.6% +9.6 19
1938-04-10 @ Lucchese L 1-2 1712 1627 21.6% 33.1% 45.3% -9.6 23
1938-04-10 Triestina D 1-1 1824 1890 47.6% 33.0% 19.4% -2.2 35
1938-04-10 @ Roma D 1-1 1890 1824 19.4% 33.0% 47.6% +2.2 36
1938-04-10 Napoli D 0-0 1686 1736 49.2% 32.9% 17.9% -2.8 22
1938-04-10 @ Liguria D 0-0 1736 1686 17.9% 32.9% 49.2% +2.8 25
1938-04-10 Inter Milan D 1-1 1825 1885 48.2% 32.9% 18.9% -2.4 31
1938-04-10 @ Torino D 1-1 1885 1825 18.9% 32.9% 48.2% +2.4 37
1938-04-17 Torino W 2-1 1600 1823 27.6% 32.5% 39.9% +14.7 16
1938-04-17 @ Atalanta L 1-2 1823 1600 39.9% 32.5% 27.6% -14.7 31
1938-04-17 AC Milan D 2-2 1887 1854 56.5% 31.9% 11.6% -2.9 37
1938-04-17 @ Bologna D 2-2 1854 1887 11.6% 31.9% 56.5% +2.9 37
1938-04-17 Lucchese W 3-0 1849 1636 67.5% 27.7% 4.8% +7.2 37
1938-04-17 @ Genova 1893 L 0-3 1636 1849 4.8% 27.7% 67.5% -7.2 19
1938-04-17 Roma W 1-0 1887 1822 58.8% 31.3% 9.8% +5.5 39
1938-04-17 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1822 1887 9.8% 31.3% 58.8% -5.5 35
1938-04-17 Liguria L 0-1 1914 1683 68.4% 27.2% 4.4% -25.2 38
1938-04-17 @ Juventus W 1-0 1683 1914 4.4% 27.2% 68.4% +25.2 24
1938-04-17 Fiorentina W 5-0 1806 1553 69.5% 26.5% 4.0% +9.4 30
1938-04-17 @ Lazio Roma L 0-5 1553 1806 4.0% 26.5% 69.5% -9.4 13
1938-04-17 Bari W 1-0 1739 1703 56.7% 31.8% 11.4% +6.2 27
1938-04-17 @ Napoli L 0-1 1703 1739 11.4% 31.8% 56.7% -6.2 23
1938-04-17 Livorno L 0-2 1892 1665 68.3% 27.3% 4.4% -47.5 36
1938-04-17 @ Triestina W 2-0 1665 1892 4.4% 27.3% 68.3% +47.5 22
1938-04-24 Juventus D 1-1 1857 1888 50.9% 32.7% 16.3% -2.8 38
1938-04-24 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1888 1857 16.3% 32.7% 50.9% +2.8 39
1938-04-24 Inter Milan L 0-2 1696 1892 31.1% 32.8% 36.1% -24.7 23
1938-04-24 @ Bari W 2-0 1892 1696 36.1% 32.8% 31.1% +24.7 41
1938-04-24 Atalanta W 4-0 1543 1615 46.9% 33.0% 20.0% +34.7 15
1938-04-24 @ Fiorentina L 0-4 1615 1543 20.0% 33.0% 46.9% -34.7 16
1938-04-24 Roma D 1-1 1856 1817 57.0% 31.8% 11.2% -4.0 38
1938-04-24 @ Genova 1893 D 1-1 1817 1856 11.2% 31.8% 57.0% +4.0 36
1938-04-24 Liguria W 3-0 1815 1709 61.6% 30.5% 8.0% +12.3 32
1938-04-24 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1709 1815 8.0% 30.5% 61.6% -12.3 24
1938-04-24 Bologna W 3-2 1712 1884 34.4% 33.0% 32.6% +12.1 24
1938-04-24 @ Livorno L 2-3 1884 1712 32.6% 33.0% 34.4% -12.1 37
1938-04-24 Triestina W 1-0 1629 1844 28.5% 32.6% 38.9% +15.3 21
1938-04-24 @ Lucchese L 0-1 1844 1629 38.9% 32.6% 28.5% -15.3 36
1938-04-24 Napoli D 0-0 1808 1745 58.7% 31.4% 9.9% -4.8 32
1938-04-24 @ Torino D 0-0 1745 1808 9.9% 31.4% 58.7% +4.8 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1938-02-20 3.95% Liguria 1681 2 @ Genova 1893 1933 0
2 1938-04-17 4.38% Liguria 1683 1 @ Juventus 1914 0
3 1938-04-17 4.44% Livorno 1665 2 @ Triestina 1892 0
4 1938-01-16 7.26% Bari 1685 4 @ Torino 1810 2
5 1938-01-30 9.00% Triestina 1821 2 @ Inter Milan 1903 1
6 1937-11-21 9.91% Genova 1893 1783 2 @ Juventus 1846 1
7 1937-12-19 11.16% Livorno 1647 2 @ Fiorentina 1688 1
8 1938-01-02 11.87% Bologna 1820 1 @ AC Milan 1848 0
9 1937-10-03 12.07% Triestina 1722 3 @ Atalanta 1748 0
10 1938-04-03 12.13% Bologna 1856 3 @ Genova 1893 1881 1
11 1938-02-27 12.49% Bologna 1810 1 @ Roma 1829 0
12 1937-11-21 13.35% Inter Milan 1843 3 @ Lazio Roma 1849 1
13 1938-02-20 13.68% Lazio Roma 1846 2 @ Bologna 1848 0
14 1937-09-26 13.80% Liguria 1717 3 @ Livorno 1718 2
15 1938-01-09 14.56% Genova 1893 1854 3 @ Roma 1844 1
16 1937-12-19 14.77% AC Milan 1829 1 @ Genova 1893 1816 0
17 1938-02-27 14.78% Torino 1742 3 @ Liguria 1729 0
18 1937-09-26 14.79% Torino 1820 1 @ AC Milan 1807 0
19 1938-02-13 15.20% Livorno 1644 3 @ Atalanta 1626 1
20 1938-03-20 16.12% Juventus 1915 2 @ Genova 1893 1885 1
21 1937-10-17 16.98% Genova 1893 1767 1 @ Liguria 1727 0
22 1937-09-19 18.15% Juventus 1824 1 @ Atalanta 1772 0
23 1937-09-19 19.03% AC Milan 1791 3 @ Bari 1730 2
24 1937-10-24 20.79% AC Milan 1782 2 @ Livorno 1704 1
25 1938-03-27 23.73% @ Liguria 1654 3 Inter Milan 1910 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-01-02 58.10 Genova 1893 4 1796 25.15% @ Lucchese 0 1679 41.72% 33.13%
2 1937-10-03 57.77 Triestina 3 1722 12.07% @ Atalanta 0 1748 55.93% 32.00%
3 1938-02-27 54.58 Torino 3 1742 14.78% @ Liguria 0 1729 52.70% 32.52%
4 1938-02-20 48.05 Liguria 2 1681 3.95% @ Genova 1893 0 1933 69.53% 26.52%
5 1938-04-17 47.48 Livorno 2 1665 4.44% @ Triestina 0 1892 68.28% 27.28%
6 1937-12-12 47.06 @ Lazio Roma 6 1805 49.02% Torino 0 1857 18.10% 32.88%
7 1938-02-27 42.49 @ Bari 5 1695 31.98% Lazio Roma 1 1885 35.16% 32.86%
8 1938-02-20 38.44 Lazio Roma 2 1846 13.68% @ Bologna 0 1848 53.98% 32.34%
9 1938-01-16 35.35 Roma 4 1811 28.23% @ Fiorentina 1 1671 38.66% 33.11%
10 1938-04-24 34.66 @ Fiorentina 4 1543 46.95% Atalanta 0 1615 20.04% 33.01%
11 1938-04-03 34.41 Bologna 3 1856 12.13% @ Genova 1893 1 1881 55.86% 32.01%
12 1938-01-16 34.34 Bari 4 1685 7.26% @ Torino 2 1810 62.70% 30.04%
13 1937-12-12 33.92 @ Liguria 5 1695 52.70% Bari 0 1708 14.78% 32.52%
14 1937-11-21 33.52 Inter Milan 3 1843 13.35% @ Lazio Roma 1 1849 54.37% 32.28%
15 1938-01-09 32.69 Genova 1893 3 1854 14.56% @ Roma 1 1844 52.96% 32.48%
16 1938-02-13 32.26 Livorno 3 1644 15.20% @ Atalanta 1 1626 52.23% 32.58%
17 1938-02-13 31.38 @ Lucchese 2 1608 24.32% Roma 0 1858 43.49% 32.19%
18 1938-02-06 30.11 Inter Milan 3 1882 43.43% @ Fiorentina 0 1632 24.38% 32.20%
19 1937-10-17 30.04 Roma 2 1818 26.14% @ Atalanta 0 1693 40.73% 33.13%
20 1937-12-12 28.98 Roma 2 1815 28.00% @ Livorno 0 1676 38.89% 33.11%
21 1937-11-07 28.63 @ Triestina 6 1782 58.83% Bari 0 1717 9.84% 31.33%
22 1938-03-27 27.51 @ Liguria 3 1654 23.73% Inter Milan 1 1910 44.16% 32.11%
23 1938-01-02 27.24 Juventus 3 1828 23.76% @ Liguria 1 1723 43.11% 33.12%
24 1938-02-20 27.24 Napoli 3 1702 23.76% @ Fiorentina 1 1597 43.11% 33.12%
25 1937-09-12 26.58 @ Roma 4 1754 53.43% Fiorentina 0 1759 14.15% 32.42%