2017 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

50 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 2007.0

Relegated

IA Akranes

17 pts

Vikingur Olafsvik · 22 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

14.44 points above expected

50 points · 35.56 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IA Akranes

8.35 points below expected

17 points · 25.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 22 15 5 2 50 43 20 +23 35.56 +14.44
2 Stjarnan 22 10 8 4 38 46 25 +21 36.96 +1.04
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 9 8 5 35 33 25 +8 37.15 -2.15
4 KR Reykjavik 22 8 7 7 31 31 29 +2 32.85 -1.85
5 Grindavik 22 9 4 9 31 31 39 -8 25.47 +5.53
6 Breidablik 22 9 3 10 30 34 35 -1 31.43 -1.43
7 KA Akureyri 22 7 8 7 29 37 31 +6 28.71 +0.29
8 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 7 6 9 27 32 36 -4 27.42 -0.42
9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 7 4 11 25 32 38 -6 24.51 +0.49
10 Fjolnir 22 6 7 9 25 32 40 -8 30.15 -5.15
11 Vikingur Olafsvik Relegated 22 6 4 12 22 24 44 -20 23.56 -1.56
12 IA Akranes Relegated 22 3 8 11 17 28 41 -13 25.35 -8.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1464 50 35.56 +14.44 99.5% 13 26 31 36 40 46 57
Stjarnan 1453 38 36.96 +1.04 59.3% 14 27 33 37 41 46 60
FH Hafnarfjordur 1410 35 37.15 -2.15 39.4% 15 27 33 37 41 47 59
KR Reykjavik 1365 31 32.85 -1.85 41.1% 11 23 29 33 37 43 56
Breidablik 1357 30 31.43 -1.43 44.1% 13 22 27 31 35 41 54
KA Akureyri 1317 29 28.71 +0.29 55.9% 9 19 25 29 33 38 51
Fjolnir 1314 25 30.15 -5.15 22.0% 10 21 26 30 34 40 50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1310 25 24.51 +0.49 57.7% 5 15 21 24 28 34 46
Vikingur Reykjavik 1291 27 27.42 -0.42 51.1% 7 18 23 27 31 37 52
Grindavik 1263 31 25.47 +5.53 84.7% 5 16 21 25 29 35 50
IA Akranes 1262 17 25.35 -8.35 8.4% 6 16 21 25 29 35 46
Vikingur Olafsvik 1215 22 23.56 -1.56 43.9% 5 14 20 23 27 33 47

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO GRI IA IV KA KR STJ VR VO VR
Breidablik
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
3.22
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.76
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-2
2.40
2-0-0
3.25
1-0-1
3.04
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
3.32
0-0-2
3.44
1-1-0
3.70
2-0-0
3.46
2-0-0
3.73
0-2-0
3.50
0-1-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.51
1-1-0
2.82
0-1-1
4.12
1-1-0
3.62
Fjolnir
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
2.00
1-0-1
2.95
0-1-1
3.12
1-1-0
3.28
0-1-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
2.03
0-2-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.96
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.21
0-1-1
1.77
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
2.67
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
1.98
0-1-1
2.05
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.81
1-0-1
2.52
IA Akranes
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
1.99
1-1-0
2.31
0-0-2
2.75
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.09
0-1-1
1.96
0-2-0
1.75
0-0-2
2.10
0-1-1
3.08
0-2-0
2.52
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-2
1.74
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.32
2-0-0
1.93
0-1-1
1.85
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.38
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.36
0-2-0
1.95
1-1-0
2.43
1-0-1
3.00
0-1-1
3.35
1-0-1
3.11
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.12
2-0-0
3.22
1-1-0
2.85
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.66
1-1-0
2.42
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
3.47
1-1-0
3.49
0-0-2
3.53
1-1-0
2.91
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.04
Stjarnan
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.92
2-0-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.39
0-2-0
3.72
1-1-0
3.61
1-1-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.69
1-0-1
3.98
0-1-1
3.69
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.03
0-1-1
2.60
1-1-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
3.32
1-1-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.73
2-0-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.54
Vikingur Olafsvik
0-0-2
2.19
1-1-0
1.40
0-2-0
2.01
2-0-0
2.62
1-1-0
2.35
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.22
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
1.53
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
2.25
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
1.84
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.91
0-2-0
2.91
0-1-1
3.05
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.39
1-1-0
1.77
0-0-2
1.93
2-0-0
3.19

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.64 +11.2
Allowed 0.79 -10.0
Differential 0.80 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%6.06%4.17%2.65%0.76%1.52%21.21%
16.06%10.61%10.61%3.79%1.14%32.20%
24.17%10.61%9.85%2.65%1.89%29.17%
32.65%3.79%2.65%0.76%0.38%10.23%
40.76%1.14%1.89%0.76%0.76%5.30%
5+1.52%0.38%1.89%
Total21.21%32.20%29.17%10.23%5.30%1.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.74
CV 0.80 0.80
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%13.64%13.64%40.91%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
34.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%27.27%36.36%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.59 -0.05
SD 1.18 1.10 1.46
CV 0.77 0.69
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
19.09%18.18%9.09%36.36%
24.55%13.64%13.64%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total22.73%40.91%36.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.14 +0.36
SD 1.14 0.77 1.22
CV 0.76 0.68
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%40.91%
213.64%13.64%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total13.64%27.27%36.36%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.82 -0.36
SD 1.14 1.22 1.76
CV 0.79 0.67
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
19.09%4.55%18.18%4.55%36.36%
213.64%9.09%22.73%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%27.27%40.91%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.77 -0.36
SD 1.14 1.23 1.73
CV 0.81 0.69
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%36.36%
19.09%4.55%13.64%
24.55%13.64%13.64%9.09%40.91%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%27.27%27.27%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.86 -0.59
SD 1.16 1.52 1.79
CV 0.91 0.82
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
19.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
313.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
4
5+
Total27.27%27.27%18.18%13.64%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.73 -0.27
SD 1.06 1.70 2.03
CV 0.73 0.98
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total27.27%27.27%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.41 +0.27
SD 1.64 1.18 1.86
CV 0.98 0.84
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%13.64%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%31.82%36.36%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.32 +0.09
SD 1.18 0.95 1.48
CV 0.84 0.72
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%13.64%13.64%31.82%
29.09%4.55%22.73%36.36%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total31.82%27.27%36.36%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.14 +0.95
SD 1.31 0.94 2.01
CV 0.62 0.83
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
113.64%18.18%4.55%36.36%
29.09%22.73%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%50.00%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 0.91 +1.05
SD 1.46 0.81 1.46
CV 0.75 0.89
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
19.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%22.73%22.73%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.00 -0.91
SD 1.06 1.48 1.87
CV 0.98 0.74
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
19.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
24.55%22.73%13.64%4.55%4.55%50.00%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total9.09%50.00%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.64 -0.18
SD 0.96 1.14 1.30
CV 0.66 0.69
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 50 35.56 +14.44
2 Grindavik 31 25.47 +5.53
3 Stjarnan 38 36.96 +1.04
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 25 24.51 +0.49
5 KA Akureyri 29 28.71 +0.29

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 17 25.35 -8.35
2 Fjolnir 25 30.15 -5.15
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 35 37.15 -2.15
4 KR Reykjavik 31 32.85 -1.85
5 Vikingur Olafsvik 22 23.56 -1.56

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 3 May 22 – Jun 5 1 in 51
2 Stjarnan 4 May 7 – May 28 1 in 27
3 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 Jul 7 – Jul 17 1 in 21
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Jun 5 – Jun 15 1 in 15
5 Breidablik 3 May 21 – Jun 5 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 3 Jun 4 – Jun 19 1 in 62
2 IA Akranes 4 Apr 30 – May 22 1 in 39
3 Grindavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 9 1 in 38
4 Breidablik 3 May 1 – May 14 1 in 31
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 May 8 – May 21 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 7 May 22 – Jul 9 1 in 40
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 May 27 – Jul 10 1 in 28
3 Stjarnan 12 Jun 24 – Sep 17 1 in 26
4 IA Akranes 5 Sep 10 – Sep 30 1 in 20
5 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 23 – Aug 31 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 9 Jun 24 – Aug 27 1 in 21
2 Stjarnan 5 Jun 4 – Jul 9 1 in 19
3 KR Reykjavik 5 May 22 – Jun 19 1 in 13
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 Jun 18 – Aug 16 1 in 13
5 Fjolnir 5 May 28 – Jun 24 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Valur Reykjavik20.85%18.30%15.53%12.87%9.57%7.01%5.82%4.06%2.72%1.52%1.10%0.65%
Stjarnan27.37%21.10%15.66%11.68%7.93%5.91%3.99%2.50%1.93%1.01%0.65%0.27%
FH Hafnarfjordur26.61%20.85%16.03%11.60%8.18%6.08%4.11%2.87%1.67%1.21%0.57%0.22%
KR Reykjavik9.08%11.61%13.56%13.50%12.33%10.63%8.85%7.14%5.59%3.52%2.78%1.41%
Grindavik0.65%1.46%2.69%4.34%6.04%7.59%9.39%10.88%12.69%14.15%14.35%15.77%
Breidablik5.88%9.04%10.69%11.82%12.59%10.98%10.40%9.14%7.09%5.85%4.16%2.36%
KA Akureyri2.64%4.88%6.79%8.47%10.57%10.84%11.65%10.97%10.87%9.35%7.59%5.38%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.55%3.11%4.92%6.14%8.28%9.55%11.09%12.47%12.00%11.73%10.91%8.25%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.49%0.99%1.93%3.16%4.76%6.99%7.94%10.74%12.33%14.81%16.98%18.88%
Fjolnir3.92%6.47%8.25%9.80%10.97%11.54%11.21%10.44%9.39%8.19%6.08%3.74%
Vikingur Olafsvik0.28%0.69%1.67%2.53%3.35%5.33%6.77%8.60%10.94%14.36%18.86%26.62%
IA Akranes0.68%1.50%2.28%4.09%5.43%7.55%8.78%10.19%12.78%14.30%15.97%16.45%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.09%
Slight Edge
40.91%27.27%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 31.67 Elo pts.
171 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.9
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Valur Reykjavik, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.55/gm
Comfortable
00.180.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.7 * Some Luck: 4.7 to 7.05 * Lucky: 7.05 to 9.4 * Wild Swing: 9.4 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.83 * Close: 1.83 to 2.75 * Off: 2.75 to 3.67 * Way Off: 3.67 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.19 * A Surprise: 1.19 to 1.9 * Several Surprises: 1.9 to 2.61 * Many Surprises: 2.61 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.40 points
Some Luck
05.8715
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.295
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.50%
Valur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
8.42%
IA Akranes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.20
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Clear Edge
50%82%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.82
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.19
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.95
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1430.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.21% 0.79%
Stjarnan 99.08% 0.92%
Valur Reykjavik 98.25% 1.75%
KR Reykjavik 95.81% 4.19%
Breidablik 93.48% 6.52%
Fjolnir 90.18% 9.82%
KA Akureyri 87.03% 12.97%
Vikingur Reykjavik 80.84% 19.16%
Grindavik 69.88% 30.12%
IA Akranes 67.58% 32.42%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 64.14% 35.86%
Vikingur Olafsvik 54.52% 45.48%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2017-04-30 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1315 1401 28.3% 28.5% 43.2% -10.3 0
2017-04-30 @ IA Akranes W 4-2 1401 1315 43.2% 28.5% 28.3% +10.3 3
2017-04-30 Fjolnir D 0-0 1297 1356 31.8% 28.8% 39.4% +0.4 1
2017-04-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1356 1297 39.4% 28.8% 31.8% -0.4 1
2017-04-30 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1348 1297 46.9% 28.0% 25.1% +12.1 3
2017-04-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1297 1348 25.1% 28.0% 46.9% -12.1 0
2017-05-01 KA Akureyri L 1-3 1376 1291 51.2% 27.1% 21.7% -18.1 0
2017-05-01 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1291 1376 21.7% 27.1% 51.2% +18.1 3
2017-05-01 Stjarnan D 2-2 1287 1369 28.8% 28.6% 42.6% +0.5 1
2017-05-01 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1369 1287 42.6% 28.6% 28.8% -0.5 1
2017-05-01 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1374 1309 48.8% 27.7% 23.6% -10.1 0
2017-05-01 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1309 1374 23.6% 27.7% 48.8% +10.1 3
2017-05-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-0 1368 1298 49.4% 27.5% 23.1% +26.4 4
2017-05-07 @ Stjarnan L 0-5 1298 1368 23.1% 27.5% 49.4% -26.4 1
2017-05-07 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1285 1364 29.1% 28.6% 42.2% -6.8 0
2017-05-07 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1364 1285 42.2% 28.6% 29.1% +6.8 3
2017-05-08 Breidablik W 1-0 1356 1358 39.7% 28.8% 31.5% +7.7 4
2017-05-08 @ Fjolnir L 0-1 1358 1356 31.5% 28.8% 39.7% -7.7 0
2017-05-08 Grindavik L 1-2 1319 1287 44.4% 28.4% 27.3% -9.3 3
2017-05-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1287 1319 27.3% 28.4% 44.4% +9.3 4
2017-05-08 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1411 1309 53.2% 26.6% 20.2% -1.2 4
2017-05-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1309 1411 20.2% 26.6% 53.2% +1.2 4
2017-05-08 Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1304 1361 32.1% 28.8% 39.0% -11.4 0
2017-05-08 @ IA Akranes W 4-2 1361 1304 39.0% 28.8% 32.1% +11.4 6
2017-05-14 Fjolnir W 2-0 1311 1363 32.6% 28.9% 38.6% +16.8 7
2017-05-14 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1363 1311 38.6% 28.9% 32.6% -16.8 4
2017-05-14 IA Akranes W 2-1 1371 1293 50.4% 27.3% 22.3% +5.5 6
2017-05-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1293 1371 22.3% 27.3% 50.4% -5.5 0
2017-05-14 Stjarnan L 1-3 1350 1395 33.8% 28.9% 37.3% -13.2 0
2017-05-14 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1395 1350 37.3% 28.9% 33.8% +13.2 7
2017-05-14 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-3 1297 1278 42.6% 28.6% 28.8% -15.7 4
2017-05-14 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1278 1297 28.8% 28.6% 42.6% +15.7 3
2017-05-14 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1271 1310 34.6% 28.9% 36.5% +8.5 4
2017-05-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1310 1271 36.5% 28.9% 34.6% -8.5 3
2017-05-15 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1372 1410 34.6% 28.9% 36.4% +0.1 7
2017-05-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1410 1372 36.4% 28.9% 34.6% -0.1 5
2017-05-21 Breidablik L 2-3 1301 1337 34.9% 28.9% 36.1% -7.4 3
2017-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1337 1301 36.1% 28.9% 34.9% +7.4 3
2017-05-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1294 1280 42.0% 28.6% 29.4% -26.0 3
2017-05-21 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 1280 1294 29.4% 28.6% 42.0% +26.0 7
2017-05-21 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1408 1327 50.6% 27.3% 22.1% +5.4 10
2017-05-21 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1327 1408 22.1% 27.3% 50.6% -5.4 7
2017-05-22 Fjolnir L 1-2 1410 1347 48.5% 27.7% 23.8% -10.0 5
2017-05-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1347 1410 23.8% 27.7% 48.5% +10.0 7
2017-05-22 Grindavik L 2-3 1287 1281 40.9% 28.7% 30.4% -8.3 0
2017-05-22 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1281 1287 30.4% 28.7% 40.9% +8.3 7
2017-05-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1372 1377 39.4% 28.8% 31.8% +7.3 10
2017-05-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1377 1372 31.8% 28.8% 39.4% -7.3 6
2017-05-27 IA Akranes L 1-4 1306 1279 43.7% 28.5% 27.8% -22.6 7
2017-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1279 1306 27.8% 28.5% 43.7% +22.6 3
2017-05-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1322 1294 43.9% 28.4% 27.7% -0.6 8
2017-05-27 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1294 1322 27.7% 28.4% 43.9% +0.5 4
2017-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1369 1400 35.7% 28.9% 35.4% -0.0 7
2017-05-28 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1400 1369 35.4% 28.9% 35.7% +0.0 6
2017-05-28 Stjarnan L 1-3 1357 1413 32.1% 28.8% 39.1% -12.7 7
2017-05-28 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1413 1357 39.1% 28.8% 32.1% +12.7 13
2017-05-28 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1289 1379 27.9% 28.5% 43.7% +9.8 10
2017-05-28 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1379 1289 43.7% 28.5% 27.9% -9.8 10
2017-05-28 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1345 1268 50.2% 27.4% 22.4% +5.5 6
2017-05-28 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1268 1345 22.4% 27.4% 50.2% -5.5 3
2017-06-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1369 1283 51.4% 27.1% 21.5% +5.3 13
2017-06-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1283 1369 21.5% 27.1% 51.4% -5.3 7
2017-06-04 Stjarnan W 3-0 1400 1426 36.3% 28.9% 34.8% +22.6 9
2017-06-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1426 1400 34.8% 28.9% 36.3% -22.6 13
2017-06-05 Breidablik L 2-3 1302 1350 33.2% 28.9% 37.9% -7.1 3
2017-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1350 1302 37.9% 28.9% 33.2% +7.1 9
2017-06-05 Fjolnir W 2-1 1294 1344 33.0% 28.9% 38.1% +8.3 7
2017-06-05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1344 1294 38.1% 28.9% 33.0% -8.3 7
2017-06-05 Grindavik L 0-1 1369 1299 49.4% 27.6% 23.1% -10.8 7
2017-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1299 1369 23.1% 27.6% 49.4% +10.8 13
2017-06-05 KA Akureyri L 1-4 1262 1321 31.8% 28.8% 39.4% -17.8 3
2017-06-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-1 1321 1262 39.4% 28.8% 31.8% +17.9 11
2017-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1310 1422 25.3% 28.1% 46.7% +1.0 14
2017-06-14 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1422 1310 46.7% 28.1% 25.3% -1.0 10
2017-06-14 IA Akranes D 0-0 1339 1294 46.1% 28.1% 25.8% -1.0 12
2017-06-14 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1294 1339 25.8% 28.1% 46.1% +1.0 4
2017-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1357 1375 37.5% 28.9% 33.6% -8.2 9
2017-06-14 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1375 1357 33.6% 28.9% 37.5% +8.2 16
2017-06-15 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1278 1359 29.0% 28.6% 42.4% +15.6 10
2017-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1359 1278 42.4% 28.6% 29.0% -15.6 7
2017-06-15 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1336 1244 51.9% 27.0% 21.1% -1.5 8
2017-06-15 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1244 1336 21.1% 27.0% 51.9% +1.5 4
2017-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1403 1303 53.1% 26.7% 20.2% -10.8 13
2017-06-15 @ Stjarnan W 2-1 1303 1403 20.2% 26.7% 53.1% +10.8 10
2017-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1311 1293 42.4% 28.6% 29.0% +11.8 17
2017-06-18 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1293 1311 29.0% 28.6% 42.4% -11.8 10
2017-06-18 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1383 1338 46.1% 28.1% 25.8% +6.6 19
2017-06-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1338 1383 25.8% 28.1% 46.1% -6.6 12
2017-06-19 Breidablik D 1-1 1343 1349 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -0.3 8
2017-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1349 1343 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +0.3 10
2017-06-19 Fjolnir W 3-1 1296 1334 34.5% 28.9% 36.5% +14.0 7
2017-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1334 1296 36.5% 28.9% 34.5% -14.0 8
2017-06-19 Stjarnan W 2-1 1246 1393 21.8% 27.2% 51.0% +10.4 7
2017-06-19 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1393 1246 51.0% 27.2% 21.8% -10.4 13
2017-06-19 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1421 1313 54.0% 26.4% 19.6% -1.2 11
2017-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1313 1421 19.6% 26.4% 54.0% +1.2 11
2017-06-24 IA Akranes D 2-2 1382 1310 49.7% 27.5% 22.9% -0.9 14
2017-06-24 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1310 1382 22.9% 27.5% 49.7% +0.9 8
2017-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1332 1343 38.5% 28.9% 32.7% -8.0 12
2017-06-24 @ KA Akureyri W 3-2 1343 1332 32.7% 28.9% 38.5% +7.9 11
2017-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1320 1390 30.4% 28.7% 40.9% +0.5 9
2017-06-24 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1390 1320 40.9% 28.7% 30.4% -0.5 20
2017-06-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1282 1420 22.6% 27.4% 50.0% -5.9 10
2017-06-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1420 1282 50.0% 27.4% 22.6% +5.9 14
2017-06-26 Grindavik D 0-0 1349 1323 43.7% 28.5% 27.9% -0.8 11
2017-06-26 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1323 1349 27.9% 28.5% 43.7% +0.8 18
2017-06-26 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1315 1256 47.8% 27.9% 24.3% +11.8 14
2017-06-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1256 1315 24.3% 27.9% 47.8% -11.8 7
2017-07-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1348 1426 29.4% 28.6% 42.0% -6.9 11
2017-07-03 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1426 1348 42.0% 28.6% 29.4% +6.9 17
2017-07-07 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1433 1245 62.8% 23.2% 14.0% -24.7 17
2017-07-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1245 1433 14.0% 23.2% 62.8% +24.7 10
2017-07-09 Breidablik D 1-1 1276 1342 30.9% 28.8% 40.4% +0.4 11
2017-07-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1342 1276 40.4% 28.8% 30.9% -0.4 12
2017-07-09 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1323 1324 40.0% 28.8% 31.2% +7.2 21
2017-07-09 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1324 1323 31.2% 28.8% 40.0% -7.2 12
2017-07-09 Stjarnan D 1-1 1389 1381 41.1% 28.7% 30.1% -0.5 21
2017-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1381 1389 30.1% 28.7% 41.1% +0.5 15
2017-07-10 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1310 1326 37.8% 28.9% 33.3% -0.2 9
2017-07-10 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1326 1310 33.3% 28.9% 37.8% +0.2 15
2017-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-3 1316 1276 45.5% 28.2% 26.3% +12.4 15
2017-07-16 @ KA Akureyri L 3-6 1276 1316 26.3% 28.2% 45.5% -12.4 11
2017-07-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1327 1389 31.4% 28.8% 39.8% -7.7 15
2017-07-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1389 1327 39.8% 28.8% 31.4% +7.7 24
2017-07-17 Grindavik W 4-0 1321 1331 38.6% 28.9% 32.5% +28.2 12
2017-07-17 @ Fjolnir L 0-4 1331 1321 32.5% 28.9% 38.6% -28.2 21
2017-07-17 IA Akranes W 1-0 1269 1310 34.2% 28.9% 36.9% +8.6 13
2017-07-17 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1310 1269 36.9% 28.9% 34.2% -8.6 9
2017-07-17 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1382 1351 44.3% 28.4% 27.3% +13.0 18
2017-07-17 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1351 1382 27.3% 28.4% 44.3% -13.0 11
2017-07-22 IA Akranes W 2-0 1408 1302 53.8% 26.5% 19.8% +9.8 20
2017-07-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1302 1408 19.8% 26.5% 53.8% -9.8 9
2017-07-23 Breidablik L 2-4 1329 1341 38.3% 28.9% 32.8% -12.9 15
2017-07-23 @ KA Akureyri W 4-2 1341 1329 32.8% 28.9% 38.3% +12.9 15
2017-07-23 Grindavik W 5-0 1395 1303 52.1% 26.9% 21.0% +24.3 21
2017-07-23 @ Stjarnan L 0-5 1303 1395 21.0% 26.9% 52.1% -24.3 21
2017-07-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1349 1264 51.2% 27.1% 21.7% +5.3 15
2017-07-23 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1264 1349 21.7% 27.1% 51.2% -5.4 11
2017-07-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1319 1338 37.4% 28.9% 33.7% -23.8 15
2017-07-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1338 1319 33.7% 28.9% 37.4% +23.8 14
2017-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1278 1396 24.6% 27.9% 47.4% -6.0 13
2017-07-25 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1396 1278 47.4% 27.9% 24.6% +6.0 27
2017-07-27 Fjolnir W 2-0 1361 1354 41.0% 28.7% 30.2% +14.0 17
2017-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1354 1361 30.2% 28.7% 41.0% -14.0 15
2017-07-30 Stjarnan D 2-2 1258 1419 20.6% 26.8% 52.7% +1.2 12
2017-07-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1419 1258 52.7% 26.8% 20.6% -1.2 22
2017-07-31 Fjolnir W 2-1 1354 1340 42.0% 28.6% 29.4% +6.9 18
2017-07-31 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1340 1354 29.4% 28.6% 42.0% -6.9 15
2017-07-31 IA Akranes W 6-0 1402 1292 54.2% 26.3% 19.4% +26.9 30
2017-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-6 1292 1402 19.4% 26.3% 54.2% -26.9 9
2017-07-31 Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-2 1376 1272 53.4% 26.6% 20.0% +7.7 20
2017-07-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1272 1376 20.0% 26.6% 53.4% -7.7 13
2017-07-31 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1278 1295 37.6% 28.9% 33.5% -8.2 21
2017-07-31 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1295 1278 33.5% 28.9% 37.6% +8.2 18
2017-08-05 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1316 1418 26.4% 28.3% 45.3% +1.0 16
2017-08-05 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1418 1316 45.3% 28.3% 26.4% -1.0 21
2017-08-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1303 1260 46.0% 28.2% 25.9% -0.9 19
2017-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1260 1303 25.9% 28.2% 46.0% +0.9 13
2017-08-08 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1265 1383 24.6% 27.9% 47.4% +1.1 10
2017-08-08 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1383 1265 47.4% 27.9% 24.6% -1.1 21
2017-08-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1417 1429 38.3% 28.9% 32.8% +7.5 24
2017-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1429 1417 32.8% 28.9% 38.3% -7.5 30
2017-08-09 Breidablik W 2-0 1418 1361 47.7% 27.9% 24.4% +11.9 25
2017-08-09 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1361 1418 24.4% 27.9% 47.7% -11.9 18
2017-08-09 Grindavik W 2-1 1264 1270 39.2% 28.8% 31.9% +7.3 16
2017-08-09 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1270 1264 31.9% 28.8% 39.2% -7.3 21
2017-08-09 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1333 1317 42.3% 28.6% 29.1% -0.4 16
2017-08-09 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 1317 1333 29.1% 28.6% 42.3% +0.5 17
2017-08-14 IA Akranes W 3-2 1263 1266 39.6% 28.8% 31.6% +6.9 24
2017-08-14 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1266 1263 31.6% 28.8% 39.6% -6.9 10
2017-08-14 Stjarnan D 1-1 1317 1430 25.3% 28.1% 46.7% +1.0 18
2017-08-14 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1430 1317 46.7% 28.1% 25.3% -1.0 26
2017-08-14 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1382 1422 34.4% 28.9% 36.7% +0.1 22
2017-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1422 1382 36.7% 28.9% 34.4% -0.1 31
2017-08-14 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1349 1302 46.3% 28.1% 25.6% -9.7 18
2017-08-14 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1302 1349 25.6% 28.1% 46.3% +9.7 22
2017-08-16 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1261 1272 38.5% 28.9% 32.6% -8.9 13
2017-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1272 1261 32.6% 28.9% 38.5% +8.9 19
2017-08-20 Breidablik L 0-3 1280 1339 31.7% 28.8% 39.4% -21.2 19
2017-08-20 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 1339 1280 39.4% 28.8% 31.7% +21.2 21
2017-08-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1259 1252 41.1% 28.7% 30.2% -9.3 10
2017-08-20 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1252 1259 30.2% 28.7% 41.1% +9.3 16
2017-08-20 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1312 1318 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -9.0 22
2017-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1318 1312 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +9.0 21
2017-08-21 Fjolnir W 4-0 1429 1333 52.5% 26.8% 20.7% +19.5 29
2017-08-21 @ Stjarnan L 0-4 1333 1429 20.7% 26.8% 52.5% -19.5 16
2017-08-21 Grindavik W 2-0 1422 1270 59.0% 24.8% 16.3% +8.2 34
2017-08-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1270 1422 16.3% 24.8% 59.0% -8.2 24
2017-08-27 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1448 1425 43.3% 28.5% 28.2% -0.7 30
2017-08-27 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1425 1448 28.2% 28.5% 43.3% +0.7 25
2017-08-27 IA Akranes W 2-0 1361 1250 54.3% 26.3% 19.4% +9.7 24
2017-08-27 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1250 1361 19.4% 26.3% 54.3% -9.7 10
2017-08-27 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1261 1382 24.4% 27.9% 47.8% +0.8 25
2017-08-27 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1382 1261 47.8% 27.9% 24.4% -0.8 23
2017-08-27 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1261 1430 19.9% 26.5% 53.6% -4.7 16
2017-08-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1430 1261 53.6% 26.5% 19.9% +4.7 37
2017-08-27 Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-0 1327 1259 49.1% 27.6% 23.3% +26.7 24
2017-08-27 @ KA Akureyri L 0-5 1259 1327 23.3% 27.6% 49.1% -26.7 19
2017-08-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1313 1303 41.4% 28.7% 29.9% +12.1 19
2017-08-27 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 1303 1313 29.9% 28.7% 41.4% -12.1 22
2017-08-31 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1425 1381 46.0% 28.2% 25.9% -10.2 25
2017-08-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1381 1425 25.9% 28.2% 46.0% +10.2 26
2017-09-09 Fjolnir D 4-4 1233 1325 27.5% 28.4% 44.1% +0.4 20
2017-09-09 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 4-4 1325 1233 44.1% 28.4% 27.5% -0.4 20
2017-09-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1392 1256 57.1% 25.4% 17.5% -33.2 26
2017-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1256 1392 17.5% 25.4% 57.1% +33.2 19
2017-09-10 Breidablik W 1-0 1434 1370 48.6% 27.7% 23.7% +6.1 40
2017-09-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1370 1434 23.7% 27.7% 48.6% -6.1 24
2017-09-10 Grindavik W 1-0 1415 1262 59.0% 24.7% 16.2% +4.3 28
2017-09-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1262 1415 16.2% 24.7% 59.0% -4.3 25
2017-09-10 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1240 1354 25.1% 28.0% 46.9% +19.5 13
2017-09-10 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1354 1240 46.9% 28.0% 25.1% -19.5 24
2017-09-10 Stjarnan D 2-2 1291 1448 20.9% 26.9% 52.2% +1.1 23
2017-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1448 1291 52.2% 26.9% 20.9% -1.1 31
2017-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1292 1419 23.7% 27.7% 48.6% -9.0 23
2017-09-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1419 1292 48.6% 27.7% 23.7% +9.0 31
2017-09-14 Grindavik W 2-1 1290 1258 44.4% 28.4% 27.3% +6.5 22
2017-09-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1258 1290 27.3% 28.4% 44.4% -6.5 25
2017-09-14 IA Akranes D 2-2 1325 1260 48.8% 27.7% 23.6% -0.9 21
2017-09-14 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 1260 1325 23.6% 27.7% 48.8% +0.9 14
2017-09-14 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1364 1358 40.8% 28.7% 30.4% -15.2 24
2017-09-14 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1358 1364 30.4% 28.7% 40.8% +15.2 29
2017-09-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1334 1441 26.0% 28.2% 45.8% +0.9 25
2017-09-14 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1441 1334 45.8% 28.2% 26.0% -0.9 41
2017-09-14 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 1446 1233 65.3% 22.0% 12.7% +9.0 34
2017-09-14 @ Stjarnan L 0-3 1233 1446 12.7% 22.0% 65.3% -9.0 20
2017-09-17 Breidablik W 4-3 1251 1349 27.0% 28.3% 44.7% +8.7 28
2017-09-17 @ Grindavik L 3-4 1349 1251 44.7% 28.3% 27.0% -8.7 24
2017-09-17 Fjolnir W 4-1 1440 1324 54.8% 26.2% 19.0% +11.6 44
2017-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1324 1440 19.0% 26.2% 54.8% -11.6 21
2017-09-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1428 1296 56.8% 25.5% 17.7% +4.4 34
2017-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1296 1428 17.7% 25.5% 56.8% -4.4 22
2017-09-17 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1374 1335 45.2% 28.3% 26.5% -1.0 30
2017-09-17 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1335 1374 26.5% 28.3% 45.2% +1.0 26
2017-09-17 Stjarnan D 2-2 1260 1455 17.8% 25.6% 56.7% +1.4 15
2017-09-17 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1455 1260 56.7% 25.6% 17.8% -1.4 35
2017-09-18 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1224 1283 31.7% 28.8% 39.5% -12.6 20
2017-09-18 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-1 1283 1224 39.5% 28.8% 31.7% +12.6 26
2017-09-21 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1312 1433 24.4% 27.9% 47.7% +9.9 24
2017-09-21 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1433 1312 47.7% 27.9% 24.4% -9.9 34
2017-09-24 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1211 1423 16.6% 24.9% 58.5% +2.1 21
2017-09-24 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1423 1211 58.5% 24.9% 16.6% -2.1 35
2017-09-24 Grindavik W 2-1 1336 1260 50.1% 27.4% 22.5% +5.5 29
2017-09-24 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1260 1336 22.5% 27.4% 50.1% -5.5 28
2017-09-24 IA Akranes D 0-0 1296 1262 44.7% 28.3% 27.0% -0.9 27
2017-09-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1262 1296 27.0% 28.3% 44.7% +0.9 16
2017-09-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1340 1292 46.6% 28.1% 25.3% +5.8 27
2017-09-24 @ Breidablik L 2-3 1292 1340 25.3% 28.1% 46.6% -5.8 22
2017-09-24 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1322 1373 32.9% 28.9% 38.2% +0.2 25
2017-09-24 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 1373 1322 38.2% 28.9% 32.9% -0.2 31
2017-09-24 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1454 1451 40.4% 28.8% 30.8% -8.7 35
2017-09-24 @ Stjarnan W 2-1 1451 1454 30.8% 28.8% 40.4% +8.7 47
2017-09-30 Breidablik L 0-1 1421 1346 49.9% 27.4% 22.6% -10.9 35
2017-09-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1346 1421 22.6% 27.4% 49.9% +10.9 30
2017-09-30 Fjolnir W 2-1 1255 1322 30.6% 28.7% 40.7% +8.7 31
2017-09-30 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1322 1255 40.7% 28.7% 30.6% -8.7 25
2017-09-30 KA Akureyri W 3-0 1286 1342 32.1% 28.8% 39.0% +24.6 25
2017-09-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1342 1286 39.0% 28.8% 32.1% -24.6 29
2017-09-30 Stjarnan L 0-1 1372 1445 29.9% 28.7% 41.3% -7.4 31
2017-09-30 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1445 1372 41.3% 28.7% 29.9% +7.4 38
2017-09-30 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1263 1213 46.7% 28.1% 25.3% -1.1 17
2017-09-30 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1213 1263 25.3% 28.1% 46.7% +1.1 22
2017-09-30 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-3 1460 1295 60.3% 24.2% 15.4% +3.6 50
2017-09-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-4 1295 1460 15.4% 24.2% 60.3% -3.6 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-07-07 14.03% Vikingur Olafsvik 1245 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1433 0
2 2017-09-09 17.49% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1256 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1392 0
3 2017-06-15 20.25% Vikingur Reykjavik 1303 2 @ Stjarnan 1403 1
4 2017-05-01 21.67% KA Akureyri 1291 3 @ Breidablik 1376 1
5 2017-06-19 21.83% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1246 2 Stjarnan 1393 1
6 2017-09-30 22.64% Breidablik 1346 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1421 0
7 2017-06-05 23.08% Grindavik 1299 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1369 0
8 2017-05-01 23.56% Vikingur Reykjavik 1309 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1374 1
9 2017-05-22 23.79% Fjolnir 1347 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1410 1
10 2017-09-21 24.44% @ Fjolnir 1312 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1433 1
11 2017-09-10 25.13% @ IA Akranes 1240 2 KA Akureyri 1354 0
12 2017-08-14 25.55% Vikingur Reykjavik 1302 2 @ Breidablik 1349 1
13 2017-08-31 25.87% KR Reykjavik 1381 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1425 0
14 2017-09-17 26.95% @ Grindavik 1251 4 Breidablik 1349 3
15 2017-05-08 27.25% Grindavik 1287 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1319 1
16 2017-05-27 27.84% IA Akranes 1279 4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1306 1
17 2017-05-28 27.85% @ Grindavik 1289 1 Valur Reykjavik 1379 0
18 2017-05-14 28.83% Vikingur Olafsvik 1278 3 @ Grindavik 1297 1
19 2017-06-15 28.96% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1278 3 KR Reykjavik 1359 1
20 2017-05-21 29.38% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1280 3 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1294 0
21 2017-08-20 30.22% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1252 1 @ IA Akranes 1259 0
22 2017-05-22 30.36% Grindavik 1281 3 @ IA Akranes 1287 2
23 2017-09-14 30.43% KR Reykjavik 1358 3 @ Breidablik 1364 1
24 2017-09-30 30.58% @ Grindavik 1255 2 Fjolnir 1322 1
25 2017-09-24 30.82% Valur Reykjavik 1451 2 @ Stjarnan 1454 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-09-09 33.24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1256 17.49% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1392 57.09% 25.42%
2 2017-07-17 28.15 @ Fjolnir 4 1321 38.61% Grindavik 0 1331 32.52% 28.87%
3 2017-07-31 26.90 @ Valur Reykjavik 6 1402 54.24% IA Akranes 0 1292 19.43% 26.33%
4 2017-08-27 26.66 @ KA Akureyri 5 1327 49.09% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1259 23.31% 27.61%
5 2017-05-07 26.41 @ Stjarnan 5 1368 49.40% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1298 23.05% 27.54%
6 2017-05-21 25.99 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1280 29.38% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1294 41.98% 28.64%
7 2017-07-07 24.68 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1245 14.03% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1433 62.78% 23.19%
8 2017-09-30 24.59 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1286 32.15% KA Akureyri 0 1342 39.01% 28.85%
9 2017-07-23 24.35 @ Stjarnan 5 1395 52.06% Grindavik 0 1303 21.01% 26.93%
10 2017-07-23 23.84 KR Reykjavik 3 1338 33.69% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1319 37.40% 28.91%
11 2017-06-04 22.61 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1400 36.33% Stjarnan 0 1426 34.75% 28.93%
12 2017-05-27 22.60 IA Akranes 4 1279 27.84% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1306 43.70% 28.47%
13 2017-08-20 21.17 Breidablik 3 1339 39.43% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1280 31.74% 28.83%
14 2017-09-10 19.49 @ IA Akranes 2 1240 25.13% KA Akureyri 0 1354 46.85% 28.02%
15 2017-08-21 19.46 @ Stjarnan 4 1429 52.53% Fjolnir 0 1333 20.67% 26.81%
16 2017-05-01 18.13 KA Akureyri 3 1291 21.67% @ Breidablik 1 1376 51.18% 27.14%
17 2017-06-05 17.86 KA Akureyri 4 1321 39.42% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1 1262 31.75% 28.83%
18 2017-05-14 16.78 @ KA Akureyri 2 1311 32.58% Fjolnir 0 1363 38.55% 28.87%
19 2017-05-14 15.67 Vikingur Olafsvik 3 1278 28.83% @ Grindavik 1 1297 42.58% 28.59%
20 2017-06-15 15.63 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1278 28.96% KR Reykjavik 1 1359 42.44% 28.60%
21 2017-09-14 15.17 KR Reykjavik 3 1358 30.43% @ Breidablik 1 1364 40.83% 28.74%
22 2017-07-27 14.05 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1361 41.05% Fjolnir 0 1354 30.22% 28.72%
23 2017-06-19 13.97 @ IA Akranes 3 1296 34.55% Fjolnir 1 1334 36.53% 28.92%
24 2017-05-14 13.21 Stjarnan 3 1395 37.34% @ Breidablik 1 1350 33.76% 28.91%
25 2017-07-17 12.99 @ Stjarnan 2 1382 44.28% KR Reykjavik 0 1351 27.33% 28.40%