2008 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

47 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 2006.0

Relegated

IA Akranes

13 pts

HK Kopavogur · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Keflavik IF

9.35 points above expected

46 points · 36.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IA Akranes

12.73 points below expected

13 points · 25.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 22 15 2 5 47 50 25 +25 40.17 +6.83
2 Keflavik IF 22 14 4 4 46 54 31 +23 36.65 +9.35
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 1 8 40 31 21 +10 31.82 +8.18
4 KR Reykjavik 22 12 3 7 39 38 23 +15 33.35 +5.65
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 11 2 9 35 34 28 +6 36.12 -1.12
6 Fjolnir 22 10 1 11 31 39 33 +6 31.07 -0.07
7 Grindavik 22 9 4 9 31 29 36 -7 28.38 +2.62
8 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30 41 36 +5 34.91 -4.91
9 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 6 4 12 22 24 40 -16 27.52 -5.52
10 Throttur Reykjavik 22 5 7 10 22 28 46 -18 25.81 -3.81
11 HK Kopavogur Relegated 22 5 3 14 18 26 47 -21 21.56 -3.56
12 IA Akranes Relegated 22 2 7 13 13 18 46 -28 25.73 -12.73

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1487 47 40.17 +6.83 87.8% 17 30 36 40 44 50 61
Keflavik IF 1461 46 36.65 +9.35 94.2% 9 26 32 37 41 47 60
KR Reykjavik 1435 39 33.35 +5.65 83.8% 9 23 29 33 38 44 60
Fram Reykjavik 1407 40 31.82 +8.18 91.3% 9 22 27 32 36 42 58
Valur Reykjavik 1391 35 36.12 -1.12 45.9% 12 26 32 36 40 47 58
Breidablik 1366 30 34.91 -4.91 23.9% 10 25 31 35 39 45 56
Fjolnir 1356 31 31.07 -0.07 52.7% 8 21 27 31 35 42 54
Grindavik 1305 31 28.38 +2.62 69.6% 8 18 24 28 33 39 50
Fylkir Reykjavik 1240 22 27.52 -5.52 20.8% 8 18 23 27 32 38 52
HK Kopavogur 1221 18 21.56 -3.56 30.9% 1 12 17 21 25 32 47
Throttur Reykjavik 1214 22 25.81 -3.81 30.7% 4 16 21 26 30 36 50
IA Akranes 1187 13 25.73 -12.73 2.1% 5 16 22 26 30 36 50

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO FR FR GRI HK IA KR KI TR VR
Breidablik
1-0-1
2.14
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.77
0-1-1
3.54
1-0-1
4.11
1-1-0
3.27
1-1-0
3.06
0-1-1
2.64
0-2-0
3.54
0-0-2
2.84
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
3.51
1-1-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
4.22
1-0-1
3.85
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.50
1-0-1
2.97
1-1-0
3.85
2-0-0
3.21
Fjolnir
0-0-2
2.57
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
2.67
2-0-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.28
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
3.64
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-2
2.44
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.00
2-0-0
2.98
2-0-0
2.81
1-0-1
3.10
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.38
0-0-2
3.02
1-0-1
2.29
1-1-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.56
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.88
1-0-1
1.44
0-0-2
2.71
0-0-2
2.83
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.01
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.99
1-0-1
1.94
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.11
1-0-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.37
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
3.01
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.02
1-1-0
3.23
0-0-2
2.23
HK Kopavogur
1-0-1
1.55
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.44
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
1.70
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
1.47
IA Akranes
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.95
0-0-2
2.01
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
3.21
0-1-1
1.87
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
1.88
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
2.77
2-0-0
2.63
2-0-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
3.79
0-1-1
2.48
2-0-0
3.82
1-0-1
2.88
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
3.66
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
3.46
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.97
2-0-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.65
1-1-0
2.55
Throttur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.11
0-1-1
1.81
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.26
1-1-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
3.30
1-1-0
2.80
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-2
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.81
0-0-2
2.44
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.09
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
3.42
0-0-2
4.20
0-1-1
3.78
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
3.10
2-0-0
3.55

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.74 +8.8
Allowed 0.79 -10.6
Differential 0.95 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%6.82%8.71%5.30%1.14%0.38%25.38%
16.82%6.06%8.71%2.27%1.89%0.76%26.52%
28.71%8.71%5.30%2.65%0.76%0.76%26.89%
35.30%2.27%2.65%1.52%0.38%1.14%13.26%
41.14%1.89%0.76%0.38%0.76%4.92%
5+0.38%0.76%0.76%1.14%3.03%
Total25.38%26.52%26.89%13.26%4.92%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 1.95
CV 0.85 0.85
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
24.55%13.64%13.64%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%40.91%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.64 +0.23
SD 1.49 1.33 2.05
CV 0.80 0.81
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
14.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
222.73%9.09%31.82%
313.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total50.00%18.18%13.64%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.14 +1.14
SD 1.32 1.46 2.01
CV 0.58 1.28
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
313.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%22.73%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.50 +0.27
SD 1.45 1.30 2.07
CV 0.82 0.87
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%31.82%
19.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
218.18%13.64%31.82%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total36.36%36.36%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.95 +0.45
SD 1.22 0.90 1.90
CV 0.87 0.94
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%18.18%18.18%50.00%
14.55%4.55%9.09%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total9.09%27.27%36.36%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.82 -0.73
SD 1.23 0.96 1.64
CV 1.13 0.53
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%27.27%
122.73%4.55%9.09%36.36%
24.55%9.09%13.64%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%18.18%27.27%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.64 -0.32
SD 1.36 1.40 1.73
CV 1.03 0.85
Max 6 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%9.09%27.27%
14.55%9.09%22.73%4.55%4.55%45.45%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
3
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total9.09%18.18%45.45%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 2.14 -0.95
SD 1.14 1.36 2.08
CV 0.96 0.63
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%31.82%
19.09%18.18%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%54.55%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
3
4
5+
Total18.18%18.18%31.82%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.09 -1.27
SD 0.66 1.63 1.55
CV 0.81 0.78
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%4.55%22.73%36.36%
222.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total45.45%13.64%36.36%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.05 +0.68
SD 1.12 1.13 1.64
CV 0.65 1.08
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
19.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
24.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%36.36%
34.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total22.73%31.82%27.27%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.41 +1.05
SD 1.22 1.05 1.53
CV 0.50 0.75
Max 5 3 +5
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%50.00%
19.09%9.09%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total9.09%31.82%27.27%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 2.09 -0.82
SD 1.52 1.44 1.92
CV 1.19 0.69
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
218.18%9.09%4.55%31.82%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total36.36%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.27 +0.27
SD 1.37 1.42 1.78
CV 0.89 1.12
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 46 36.65 +9.35
2 Fram Reykjavik 40 31.82 +8.18
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 47 40.17 +6.83
4 KR Reykjavik 39 33.35 +5.65
5 Grindavik 31 28.38 +2.62

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 13 25.73 -12.73
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 27.52 -5.52
3 Breidablik 30 34.91 -4.91
4 Throttur Reykjavik 22 25.81 -3.81
5 HK Kopavogur 18 21.56 -3.56

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HK Kopavogur 3 Aug 17 – Aug 31 1 in 71
2 Keflavik IF 4 May 10 – May 25 1 in 26
3 Throttur Reykjavik 3 Jun 1 – Jun 15 1 in 19
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 15 – Jul 6 1 in 19
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 May 19 – Jun 1 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 4 Sep 17 – Sep 27 1 in 101
2 Fjolnir 5 Jul 21 – Aug 17 1 in 99
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 Jun 5 – Jul 7 1 in 99
4 IA Akranes 7 Jun 30 – Aug 11 1 in 80
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jul 6 – Jul 13 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 12 Jun 30 – Sep 17 1 in 103
2 HK Kopavogur 4 Aug 11 – Aug 31 1 in 27
3 Valur Reykjavik 7 Jun 29 – Aug 11 1 in 18
4 Breidablik 8 Jun 30 – Aug 17 1 in 18
5 Grindavik 5 Jun 25 – Jul 21 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 14 May 25 – Aug 24 1 in 475
2 Fjolnir 8 Jul 21 – Sep 13 1 in 40
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 Jul 21 – Aug 27 1 in 22
4 HK Kopavogur 10 Jun 8 – Aug 11 1 in 22
5 Breidablik 4 Sep 17 – Sep 27 1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
FH Hafnarfjordur37.11%21.12%14.15%9.47%6.48%4.68%2.98%1.79%1.17%0.57%0.36%0.12%
Keflavik IF17.86%18.66%15.03%12.29%10.30%8.15%6.18%4.83%3.02%1.91%1.25%0.52%
Fram Reykjavik4.82%7.15%9.63%10.62%11.78%11.86%10.79%9.87%8.81%6.90%5.18%2.59%
KR Reykjavik7.32%10.19%12.76%12.41%12.06%10.64%9.97%8.54%6.73%4.89%2.97%1.52%
Valur Reykjavik14.73%15.51%14.72%13.50%11.33%9.24%7.08%5.32%4.06%2.51%1.46%0.54%
Fjolnir3.69%6.12%7.69%10.28%10.52%11.74%11.52%11.04%9.78%8.28%6.15%3.19%
Grindavik1.43%2.91%4.52%6.10%7.63%9.73%11.37%12.39%12.67%12.81%10.73%7.71%
Breidablik10.72%13.13%13.42%13.03%12.14%10.47%8.49%7.19%4.78%3.60%2.15%0.88%
Fylkir Reykjavik1.10%2.17%3.23%5.21%6.49%8.49%10.52%11.85%13.70%14.12%13.35%9.77%
Throttur Reykjavik0.58%1.43%2.29%2.93%4.94%6.38%9.03%10.70%13.60%15.21%17.25%15.66%
HK Kopavogur0.04%0.30%0.40%1.07%1.74%2.69%3.97%5.88%9.07%13.34%21.30%40.20%
IA Akranes0.60%1.31%2.16%3.09%4.59%5.93%8.10%10.60%12.61%15.86%17.85%17.30%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.55%
No Edge
43.94%16.67%39.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.80 Elo pts.
142 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.7
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.99 * Some Luck: 4.99 to 7.48 * Lucky: 7.48 to 9.98 * Wild Swing: 9.98 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.78 * Close: 1.78 to 2.67 * Off: 2.67 to 3.56 * Way Off: 3.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.03 * A Surprise: 1.03 to 1.65 * Several Surprises: 1.65 to 2.27 * Many Surprises: 2.27 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.36 points
Some Luck
06.2416
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.225
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.15%
Keflavik IF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.13%
IA Akranes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.54
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.04
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.10
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%31%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.040
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.52% 0.48%
Keflavik IF 98.23% 1.77%
Valur Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Breidablik 96.97% 3.03%
KR Reykjavik 95.51% 4.49%
Fram Reykjavik 92.23% 7.77%
Fjolnir 90.66% 9.34%
Grindavik 81.56% 18.44%
Fylkir Reykjavik 76.88% 23.12%
Throttur Reykjavik 67.09% 32.91%
IA Akranes 64.85% 35.15%
HK Kopavogur 38.50% 61.50%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2008-05-10 Breidablik D 1-1 1353 1362 42.6% 17.7% 39.8% -0.2 1
2008-05-10 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1362 1353 39.8% 17.7% 42.6% +0.2 1
2008-05-10 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1302 1370 34.4% 17.6% 48.0% -31.8 0
2008-05-10 @ HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1370 1302 48.0% 17.6% 34.4% +31.8 3
2008-05-10 Fjolnir L 0-3 1328 1315 45.6% 17.6% 36.7% -30.9 0
2008-05-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1315 1328 36.7% 17.6% 45.6% +30.9 3
2008-05-10 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1354 1326 47.6% 17.6% 34.7% -32.0 0
2008-05-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1326 1354 34.7% 17.6% 47.6% +32.0 3
2008-05-10 Grindavik W 3-1 1321 1329 42.7% 17.7% 39.6% +16.4 3
2008-05-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1329 1321 39.6% 17.7% 42.7% -16.4 0
2008-05-10 Valur Reykjavik W 5-3 1327 1384 35.8% 17.6% 46.6% +15.9 3
2008-05-10 @ Keflavik IF L 3-5 1384 1327 46.6% 17.6% 35.8% -15.8 0
2008-05-14 Grindavik W 3-0 1368 1312 51.4% 17.5% 31.1% +22.3 3
2008-05-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1312 1368 31.1% 17.5% 51.4% -22.3 0
2008-05-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1342 1322 46.7% 17.6% 35.6% +8.6 6
2008-05-15 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1322 1342 35.6% 17.6% 46.7% -8.6 0
2008-05-15 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1358 1271 55.4% 17.4% 27.3% +13.7 6
2008-05-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1271 1358 27.3% 17.4% 55.4% -13.7 0
2008-05-15 IA Akranes W 2-0 1402 1353 50.5% 17.6% 32.0% +15.8 6
2008-05-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1353 1402 32.0% 17.6% 50.5% -15.8 1
2008-05-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1346 1337 45.1% 17.7% 37.3% +9.0 6
2008-05-15 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1337 1346 37.3% 17.7% 45.1% -9.0 3
2008-05-15 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1362 1297 52.5% 17.5% 30.0% -1.4 2
2008-05-15 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1297 1362 30.0% 17.5% 52.5% +1.4 1
2008-05-19 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-4 1299 1417 28.0% 17.4% 54.6% +0.8 2
2008-05-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 4-4 1417 1299 54.6% 17.4% 28.0% -0.8 7
2008-05-19 Fjolnir L 0-1 1290 1355 34.7% 17.6% 47.7% -9.0 0
2008-05-19 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1355 1290 47.7% 17.6% 34.7% +9.0 9
2008-05-19 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1257 1351 30.9% 17.5% 51.5% -7.7 0
2008-05-19 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1351 1257 51.5% 17.5% 30.9% +7.7 9
2008-05-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1313 1390 33.1% 17.6% 49.3% +22.8 3
2008-05-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1390 1313 49.3% 17.6% 33.1% -22.8 3
2008-05-20 Breidablik L 1-2 1328 1361 39.2% 17.7% 43.1% -9.4 3
2008-05-20 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1361 1328 43.1% 17.7% 39.2% +9.4 5
2008-05-20 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1337 1372 38.9% 17.7% 43.5% +10.8 4
2008-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1372 1337 43.5% 17.7% 38.9% -10.8 6
2008-05-25 Fjolnir W 2-1 1368 1364 44.3% 17.7% 38.0% +9.1 6
2008-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1364 1368 38.0% 17.7% 44.3% -9.1 9
2008-05-25 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1336 1249 55.2% 17.4% 27.4% +6.9 6
2008-05-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1249 1336 27.4% 17.4% 55.2% -6.9 0
2008-05-25 IA Akranes W 3-1 1359 1348 45.3% 17.6% 37.0% +15.5 12
2008-05-25 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1348 1359 37.0% 17.6% 45.3% -15.5 4
2008-05-25 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1417 1319 56.5% 17.3% 26.1% +13.2 10
2008-05-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1319 1417 26.1% 17.3% 56.5% -13.2 3
2008-05-25 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1361 1300 52.1% 17.5% 30.4% +8.0 9
2008-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1300 1361 30.4% 17.5% 52.1% -8.0 2
2008-05-26 Grindavik L 3-6 1370 1281 55.5% 17.4% 27.1% -24.9 5
2008-05-26 @ Breidablik W 6-3 1281 1370 27.1% 17.4% 55.5% +24.9 3
2008-06-01 Breidablik L 1-2 1355 1345 45.2% 17.7% 37.1% -10.5 9
2008-06-01 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1345 1355 37.1% 17.7% 45.2% +10.5 8
2008-06-01 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1332 1343 42.4% 17.7% 40.0% -9.5 4
2008-06-01 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1343 1332 40.0% 17.7% 42.4% +9.5 9
2008-06-01 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1292 1374 32.4% 17.6% 50.0% +10.9 5
2008-06-01 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 1374 1292 50.0% 17.6% 32.4% -10.9 12
2008-06-02 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1306 1430 27.4% 17.4% 55.3% -20.0 3
2008-06-02 @ Grindavik W 3-0 1430 1306 55.3% 17.4% 27.4% +20.0 13
2008-06-02 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1306 1369 34.9% 17.6% 47.4% +22.0 6
2008-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1369 1306 47.4% 17.6% 34.9% -22.0 9
2008-06-02 Valur Reykjavik W 4-2 1242 1377 26.2% 17.3% 56.5% +20.0 3
2008-06-02 @ HK Kopavogur L 2-4 1377 1242 56.5% 17.3% 26.2% -20.0 6
2008-06-05 Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 1352 1303 50.6% 17.6% 31.9% -11.0 9
2008-06-05 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1303 1352 31.9% 17.6% 50.6% +11.0 8
2008-06-08 Breidablik W 1-0 1357 1356 44.0% 17.7% 38.4% +9.8 9
2008-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1356 1357 38.4% 17.7% 44.0% -9.8 8
2008-06-08 Fjolnir W 2-0 1450 1344 57.5% 17.3% 25.3% +12.8 16
2008-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1344 1450 25.3% 17.3% 57.5% -12.8 9
2008-06-08 Grindavik L 0-1 1347 1286 52.1% 17.5% 30.4% -12.7 9
2008-06-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1286 1347 30.4% 17.5% 52.1% +12.7 6
2008-06-08 IA Akranes D 1-1 1262 1323 35.3% 17.6% 47.1% +0.7 4
2008-06-08 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1323 1262 47.1% 17.6% 35.3% -0.6 5
2008-06-08 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 1363 1328 48.7% 17.6% 33.7% +12.8 15
2008-06-08 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 1328 1363 33.7% 17.6% 48.7% -12.8 6
2008-06-11 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1332 1341 42.5% 17.7% 39.8% +10.1 12
2008-06-11 @ Fjolnir L 0-1 1341 1332 39.8% 17.7% 42.5% -10.1 9
2008-06-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1315 1331 41.5% 17.7% 40.8% +28.1 9
2008-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1331 1315 40.8% 17.7% 41.5% -28.1 9
2008-06-15 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1314 1263 50.7% 17.5% 31.7% +7.8 11
2008-06-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1263 1314 31.7% 17.5% 50.7% -7.8 4
2008-06-15 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1299 1376 33.1% 17.6% 49.4% -8.6 6
2008-06-15 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1376 1299 49.4% 17.6% 33.1% +8.6 18
2008-06-15 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1322 1366 37.5% 17.7% 44.8% +0.4 6
2008-06-15 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1366 1322 44.8% 17.7% 37.5% -0.4 10
2008-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1346 1463 28.2% 17.4% 54.4% +30.4 11
2008-06-16 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1463 1346 54.4% 17.4% 28.2% -30.4 16
2008-06-16 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1342 1334 44.9% 17.7% 37.5% -11.1 12
2008-06-16 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1334 1342 37.5% 17.7% 44.9% +11.1 12
2008-06-23 Breidablik W 2-1 1345 1376 39.4% 17.7% 42.9% +10.1 15
2008-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1376 1345 42.9% 17.7% 39.4% -10.1 11
2008-06-23 Fjolnir L 1-2 1385 1331 51.1% 17.5% 31.3% -11.8 18
2008-06-23 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1331 1385 31.3% 17.5% 51.1% +11.8 15
2008-06-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1255 1343 31.7% 17.5% 50.7% -22.7 4
2008-06-23 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1343 1255 50.7% 17.5% 31.7% +22.7 12
2008-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1323 1321 44.0% 17.7% 38.3% -0.3 7
2008-06-23 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1321 1323 38.3% 17.7% 44.0% +0.3 12
2008-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1366 1432 34.5% 17.6% 47.8% -8.9 10
2008-06-24 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1432 1366 47.8% 17.6% 34.5% +8.9 19
2008-06-25 Grindavik L 0-1 1303 1290 45.6% 17.6% 36.7% -11.3 9
2008-06-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1290 1303 36.7% 17.6% 45.6% +11.3 9
2008-06-29 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1441 1356 55.1% 17.4% 27.5% +6.9 22
2008-06-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1356 1441 27.5% 17.4% 55.1% -6.9 15
2008-06-29 HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1301 1232 53.1% 17.5% 29.5% -1.0 10
2008-06-29 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1232 1301 29.5% 17.5% 53.1% +1.0 5
2008-06-29 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1322 1357 38.8% 17.7% 43.5% -27.0 12
2008-06-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1357 1322 43.5% 17.7% 38.8% +27.0 13
2008-06-30 IA Akranes W 2-0 1366 1322 49.8% 17.6% 32.7% +16.1 15
2008-06-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1322 1366 32.7% 17.6% 49.8% -16.0 7
2008-06-30 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1366 1373 42.9% 17.7% 39.5% -0.1 12
2008-06-30 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1373 1366 39.5% 17.7% 42.9% +0.1 19
2008-07-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1373 1448 33.4% 17.6% 49.0% +12.0 22
2008-07-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1448 1373 49.0% 17.6% 33.4% -12.0 22
2008-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1384 1349 48.7% 17.6% 33.7% +16.5 16
2008-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1349 1384 33.7% 17.6% 48.7% -16.5 15
2008-07-06 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1295 1382 31.8% 17.6% 50.6% -8.3 12
2008-07-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1382 1295 50.6% 17.6% 31.8% +8.3 18
2008-07-07 Breidablik L 0-2 1292 1366 33.5% 17.6% 48.9% -16.4 9
2008-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1366 1292 48.9% 17.6% 33.5% +16.4 15
2008-07-07 Fjolnir L 1-6 1233 1342 29.1% 17.5% 53.4% -28.1 5
2008-07-07 @ HK Kopavogur W 6-1 1342 1233 53.4% 17.5% 29.1% +28.1 18
2008-07-07 Grindavik L 1-2 1306 1300 44.7% 17.7% 37.7% -10.4 7
2008-07-07 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1300 1306 37.7% 17.7% 44.7% +10.4 13
2008-07-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1390 1401 42.4% 17.7% 40.0% -10.0 18
2008-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1401 1390 40.0% 17.7% 42.4% +10.0 19
2008-07-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1436 1275 63.4% 16.9% 19.7% -14.4 22
2008-07-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1275 1436 19.7% 16.9% 63.4% +14.4 12
2008-07-13 IA Akranes W 2-0 1371 1296 53.8% 17.5% 28.8% +14.4 21
2008-07-13 @ Fjolnir L 0-2 1296 1371 28.8% 17.5% 53.8% -14.4 7
2008-07-14 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1382 1205 65.0% 16.7% 18.3% +4.8 18
2008-07-14 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1205 1382 18.3% 16.7% 65.0% -4.8 5
2008-07-14 Keflavik IF L 0-2 1332 1385 36.4% 17.6% 46.0% -17.6 15
2008-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1385 1332 46.0% 17.6% 36.4% +17.6 25
2008-07-14 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1311 1286 47.2% 17.6% 35.2% -0.5 14
2008-07-14 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1286 1311 35.2% 17.6% 47.2% +0.5 13
2008-07-19 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1410 1403 44.9% 17.7% 37.4% -0.4 20
2008-07-19 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1403 1410 37.4% 17.7% 44.9% +0.4 26
2008-07-20 HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1422 1200 68.8% 16.3% 14.9% +14.9 25
2008-07-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1200 1422 14.9% 16.3% 68.8% -14.9 5
2008-07-20 IA Akranes W 6-1 1387 1282 57.5% 17.3% 25.2% +24.8 21
2008-07-20 @ Breidablik L 1-6 1282 1387 25.2% 17.3% 57.5% -24.8 7
2008-07-21 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1315 1290 47.3% 17.6% 35.1% +24.8 18
2008-07-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1290 1315 35.1% 17.6% 47.3% -24.8 12
2008-07-21 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1310 1380 34.0% 17.6% 48.4% +11.2 17
2008-07-21 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1380 1310 48.4% 17.6% 34.0% -11.2 18
2008-07-21 Throttur Reykjavik L 3-4 1385 1287 56.6% 17.3% 26.1% -11.9 21
2008-07-21 @ Fjolnir W 4-3 1287 1385 26.1% 17.3% 56.6% +11.9 16
2008-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-5 1257 1436 21.4% 17.0% 61.5% -11.7 7
2008-07-27 @ IA Akranes W 5-2 1436 1257 61.5% 17.0% 21.4% +11.7 28
2008-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 3-5 1321 1410 31.6% 17.5% 50.8% -11.4 17
2008-07-27 @ Grindavik W 5-3 1410 1321 50.8% 17.5% 31.6% +11.4 23
2008-07-28 Breidablik D 2-2 1299 1412 28.6% 17.4% 53.9% +1.1 17
2008-07-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1412 1299 53.9% 17.4% 28.6% -1.1 22
2008-07-28 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1186 1339 24.0% 17.2% 58.7% -12.3 5
2008-07-28 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1339 1186 58.7% 17.2% 24.0% +12.3 21
2008-07-28 Keflavik IF D 3-3 1265 1403 25.7% 17.3% 57.0% +1.1 13
2008-07-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-3 1403 1265 57.0% 17.3% 25.7% -1.1 27
2008-07-29 Fjolnir W 2-0 1369 1373 43.3% 17.7% 39.1% +18.7 21
2008-07-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1373 1369 39.1% 17.7% 43.3% -18.7 21
2008-08-06 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1402 1173 69.4% 16.2% 14.3% +3.6 30
2008-08-06 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1173 1402 14.3% 16.2% 69.4% -3.6 5
2008-08-06 IA Akranes W 2-0 1352 1245 57.6% 17.3% 25.1% +12.8 24
2008-08-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1245 1352 25.1% 17.3% 57.6% -12.8 7
2008-08-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1411 1388 47.0% 17.6% 35.3% -0.6 23
2008-08-06 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1388 1411 35.3% 17.6% 47.0% +0.6 22
2008-08-06 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1448 1300 62.1% 17.0% 20.9% +10.8 31
2008-08-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1300 1448 20.9% 17.0% 62.1% -10.8 17
2008-08-07 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1422 1266 62.9% 16.9% 20.2% +10.5 26
2008-08-07 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1266 1422 20.2% 16.9% 62.9% -10.5 13
2008-08-07 Grindavik L 0-1 1354 1310 49.9% 17.6% 32.5% -12.2 21
2008-08-07 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1310 1354 32.5% 17.6% 49.9% +12.2 20
2008-08-10 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1388 1459 34.0% 17.6% 48.4% -8.3 22
2008-08-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1459 1388 48.4% 17.6% 34.0% +8.3 34
2008-08-10 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1289 1364 33.4% 17.6% 49.0% +0.9 18
2008-08-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1364 1289 49.0% 17.6% 33.4% -0.9 25
2008-08-11 Breidablik D 2-2 1322 1410 31.7% 17.5% 50.8% +0.8 21
2008-08-11 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1410 1322 50.8% 17.5% 31.7% -0.8 24
2008-08-11 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1170 1255 32.0% 17.6% 50.4% +1.0 6
2008-08-11 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1255 1170 50.4% 17.6% 32.0% -1.0 14
2008-08-11 Keflavik IF L 1-4 1232 1405 22.1% 17.1% 60.9% -13.9 7
2008-08-11 @ IA Akranes W 4-1 1405 1232 60.9% 17.1% 22.1% +13.9 33
2008-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1342 1432 31.5% 17.5% 51.0% -7.4 21
2008-08-11 @ Fjolnir W 3-2 1432 1342 51.0% 17.5% 31.5% +7.4 29
2008-08-17 Fjolnir W 4-1 1410 1335 53.8% 17.5% 28.7% +17.6 27
2008-08-17 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1335 1410 28.7% 17.5% 53.8% -17.6 21
2008-08-17 Grindavik L 0-1 1467 1323 61.7% 17.0% 21.2% -14.9 34
2008-08-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1323 1467 21.2% 17.0% 61.7% +14.8 24
2008-08-17 HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1439 1171 72.4% 15.7% 11.8% -17.3 29
2008-08-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1171 1439 11.8% 15.7% 72.4% +17.3 9
2008-08-17 IA Akranes D 2-2 1254 1218 48.8% 17.6% 33.6% -0.6 15
2008-08-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1218 1254 33.6% 17.6% 48.8% +0.6 8
2008-08-17 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1364 1380 41.4% 17.7% 40.9% -19.6 25
2008-08-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1380 1364 40.9% 17.7% 41.4% +19.6 25
2008-08-17 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-0 1419 1290 60.1% 17.1% 22.7% +27.3 36
2008-08-17 @ Keflavik IF L 0-5 1290 1419 22.7% 17.1% 60.1% -27.3 18
2008-08-24 FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 1317 1452 26.1% 17.3% 56.6% +1.1 22
2008-08-24 @ Fjolnir D 3-3 1452 1317 56.6% 17.3% 26.1% -1.1 35
2008-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1338 1344 42.9% 17.7% 39.4% -20.2 24
2008-08-24 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1344 1338 39.4% 17.7% 42.9% +20.2 28
2008-08-24 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1263 1254 45.1% 17.7% 37.3% -0.5 19
2008-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1254 1263 37.3% 17.7% 45.1% +0.5 16
2008-08-24 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1219 1188 48.1% 17.6% 34.3% -11.1 8
2008-08-24 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1188 1219 34.3% 17.6% 48.1% +11.1 12
2008-08-24 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1400 1447 37.2% 17.7% 45.2% +0.3 26
2008-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1447 1400 45.2% 17.7% 37.2% -0.3 37
2008-08-24 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1427 1422 44.5% 17.7% 37.8% -20.8 27
2008-08-24 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1422 1427 37.8% 17.7% 44.5% +20.8 32
2008-08-27 Fjolnir W 3-1 1364 1318 50.1% 17.6% 32.3% +13.8 31
2008-08-27 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1318 1364 32.3% 17.6% 50.1% -13.8 22
2008-08-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1254 1400 24.9% 17.3% 57.8% -12.7 16
2008-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1400 1254 57.8% 17.3% 24.9% +12.7 29
2008-08-31 Grindavik W 3-0 1446 1318 60.1% 17.1% 22.8% +17.0 40
2008-08-31 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1318 1446 22.8% 17.1% 60.1% -17.0 24
2008-08-31 IA Akranes L 0-1 1443 1208 69.9% 16.1% 13.9% -16.8 32
2008-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1208 1443 13.9% 16.1% 69.9% +16.8 11
2008-08-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-0 1199 1262 35.0% 17.6% 47.4% +41.7 15
2008-08-31 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-4 1262 1199 47.4% 17.6% 35.0% -41.7 19
2008-09-13 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1406 1378 47.8% 17.6% 34.6% +24.5 30
2008-09-13 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1378 1406 34.6% 17.6% 47.8% -24.5 31
2008-09-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1301 1242 51.8% 17.5% 30.7% -20.6 24
2008-09-13 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1242 1301 30.7% 17.5% 51.8% +20.6 19
2008-09-13 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1413 1241 64.5% 16.8% 18.8% +4.9 32
2008-09-13 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1241 1413 18.8% 16.8% 64.5% -4.9 15
2008-09-13 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1304 1463 23.5% 17.2% 59.3% -6.0 22
2008-09-13 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1463 1304 59.3% 17.2% 23.5% +6.0 43
2008-09-13 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1451 1426 47.3% 17.6% 35.0% +24.8 38
2008-09-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1426 1451 35.0% 17.6% 47.3% -24.8 32
2008-09-14 IA Akranes W 4-1 1221 1225 43.2% 17.7% 39.1% +22.9 22
2008-09-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 1225 1221 39.1% 17.7% 43.2% -22.9 11
2008-09-17 Breidablik W 3-1 1469 1431 49.1% 17.6% 33.3% +14.1 46
2008-09-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1431 1469 33.3% 17.6% 49.1% -14.1 30
2008-09-17 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1353 1476 27.5% 17.4% 55.1% +30.8 34
2008-09-17 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1476 1353 55.1% 17.4% 27.5% -30.8 38
2008-09-18 Fjolnir L 0-3 1262 1298 38.7% 17.7% 43.7% -26.9 19
2008-09-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1298 1262 43.7% 17.7% 38.7% +26.9 25
2008-09-18 Grindavik L 0-2 1236 1280 37.6% 17.7% 44.8% -18.1 15
2008-09-18 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1280 1236 44.8% 17.7% 37.6% +18.1 27
2008-09-18 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1202 1418 18.2% 16.7% 65.1% +3.1 12
2008-09-18 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1418 1202 65.1% 16.7% 18.2% -3.1 33
2008-09-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1401 1243 63.1% 16.9% 20.0% +10.4 35
2008-09-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1243 1401 20.0% 16.9% 63.1% -10.4 22
2008-09-21 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1417 1235 65.4% 16.7% 17.9% -14.0 30
2008-09-21 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1235 1417 17.9% 16.7% 65.4% +14.1 22
2008-09-21 HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1325 1218 57.7% 17.3% 25.0% +11.0 28
2008-09-21 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 1218 1325 25.0% 17.3% 57.7% -11.0 15
2008-09-21 IA Akranes D 1-1 1298 1205 56.0% 17.4% 26.6% -1.7 28
2008-09-21 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1205 1298 26.6% 17.4% 56.0% +1.7 13
2008-09-21 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1445 1483 38.4% 17.7% 44.0% +9.8 41
2008-09-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1483 1445 44.0% 17.7% 38.4% -9.8 46
2008-09-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-2 1414 1233 65.4% 16.7% 17.9% +9.9 36
2008-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-5 1233 1414 17.9% 16.7% 65.4% -9.9 22
2008-09-21 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1384 1412 39.9% 17.7% 42.4% +10.0 37
2008-09-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1412 1384 42.4% 17.7% 39.9% -10.0 35
2008-09-24 Breidablik W 3-0 1455 1403 50.9% 17.5% 31.5% +22.6 44
2008-09-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1403 1455 31.5% 17.5% 50.9% -22.6 30
2008-09-27 Breidablik W 2-1 1207 1380 22.1% 17.1% 60.9% +13.8 18
2008-09-27 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1380 1207 60.9% 17.1% 22.1% -13.8 30
2008-09-27 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1249 1478 17.1% 16.6% 66.3% -9.0 22
2008-09-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1478 1249 66.3% 16.6% 17.1% +9.0 47
2008-09-27 Fjolnir L 0-3 1207 1336 26.7% 17.4% 56.0% -19.5 13
2008-09-27 @ IA Akranes W 3-0 1336 1207 56.0% 17.4% 26.7% +19.5 31
2008-09-27 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1474 1394 54.4% 17.4% 28.2% -12.4 46
2008-09-27 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1394 1474 28.2% 17.4% 54.4% +12.4 40
2008-09-27 Grindavik L 0-1 1223 1296 33.6% 17.6% 48.8% -8.7 22
2008-09-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1296 1223 48.8% 17.6% 33.6% +8.7 31
2008-09-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1402 1424 40.6% 17.7% 41.8% -10.2 35
2008-09-27 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1424 1402 41.8% 17.7% 40.6% +10.2 39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2008-08-17 11.82% HK Kopavogur 1171 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1439 0
2 2008-08-31 13.92% IA Akranes 1208 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1443 0
3 2008-09-21 17.93% Fylkir Reykjavik 1235 3 @ Breidablik 1417 2
4 2008-07-13 19.72% Fylkir Reykjavik 1275 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1436 1
5 2008-08-17 21.25% Grindavik 1323 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1467 0
6 2008-09-27 22.07% @ HK Kopavogur 1207 2 Breidablik 1380 1
7 2008-07-21 26.07% Throttur Reykjavik 1287 4 @ Fjolnir 1385 3
8 2008-06-02 26.15% @ HK Kopavogur 1242 4 Valur Reykjavik 1377 2
9 2008-05-26 27.09% Grindavik 1281 6 @ Breidablik 1370 3
10 2008-09-17 27.48% @ Fram Reykjavik 1353 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1476 1
11 2008-06-16 28.18% @ Breidablik 1346 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1463 1
12 2008-09-27 28.20% Fram Reykjavik 1394 2 @ Keflavik IF 1474 1
13 2008-06-08 30.41% Grindavik 1286 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1347 0
14 2008-09-13 30.68% Fylkir Reykjavik 1242 3 @ Grindavik 1301 1
15 2008-06-23 31.31% Fjolnir 1331 2 @ Keflavik IF 1385 1
16 2008-06-05 31.88% Throttur Reykjavik 1303 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1352 2
17 2008-06-01 32.41% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1292 3 Keflavik IF 1374 2
18 2008-08-07 32.54% Grindavik 1310 1 @ Fjolnir 1354 0
19 2008-05-19 33.08% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1313 2 Valur Reykjavik 1390 0
20 2008-07-06 33.38% @ Keflavik IF 1373 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1448 0
21 2008-07-21 34.03% @ Grindavik 1310 2 KR Reykjavik 1380 1
22 2008-08-24 34.29% HK Kopavogur 1188 2 @ IA Akranes 1219 1
23 2008-05-10 34.74% Fram Reykjavik 1326 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1354 0
24 2008-06-02 34.95% @ KR Reykjavik 1306 2 Fram Reykjavik 1369 0
25 2008-08-31 34.96% @ HK Kopavogur 1199 4 Throttur Reykjavik 1262 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-08-31 41.70 @ HK Kopavogur 4 1199 34.96% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1262 47.42% 17.63%
2 2008-05-10 32.04 Fram Reykjavik 3 1326 34.74% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1354 47.64% 17.62%
3 2008-05-10 31.82 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1370 48.01% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1302 34.38% 17.62%
4 2008-05-10 30.87 Fjolnir 3 1315 36.72% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1328 45.63% 17.65%
5 2008-09-17 30.82 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1353 27.48% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1476 55.11% 17.40%
6 2008-06-16 30.45 @ Breidablik 4 1346 28.18% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1463 54.38% 17.43%
7 2008-07-07 28.13 Fjolnir 6 1342 53.43% @ HK Kopavogur 1 1233 29.10% 17.47%
8 2008-06-15 28.10 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1315 41.55% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1331 40.78% 17.68%
9 2008-08-17 27.28 @ Keflavik IF 5 1419 60.14% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1290 22.73% 17.13%
10 2008-06-29 26.95 Valur Reykjavik 3 1357 43.55% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1322 38.78% 17.67%
11 2008-09-18 26.88 Fjolnir 3 1298 43.68% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1262 38.66% 17.67%
12 2008-05-26 24.88 Grindavik 6 1281 27.09% @ Breidablik 3 1370 55.52% 17.39%
13 2008-07-20 24.80 @ Breidablik 6 1387 57.49% IA Akranes 1 1282 25.22% 17.29%
14 2008-07-21 24.78 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1315 47.29% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1290 35.08% 17.63%
15 2008-09-13 24.75 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1451 47.33% Valur Reykjavik 0 1426 35.04% 17.63%
16 2008-09-13 24.51 @ Breidablik 3 1406 47.75% Fram Reykjavik 0 1378 34.63% 17.62%
17 2008-09-14 22.88 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1221 43.23% IA Akranes 1 1225 39.10% 17.67%
18 2008-05-19 22.76 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1313 33.08% Valur Reykjavik 0 1390 49.33% 17.59%
19 2008-06-23 22.72 KR Reykjavik 3 1343 50.75% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1255 31.69% 17.55%
20 2008-09-24 22.60 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1455 50.95% Breidablik 0 1403 31.51% 17.55%
21 2008-05-14 22.35 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1368 51.36% Grindavik 0 1312 31.10% 17.54%
22 2008-06-02 21.98 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1306 34.95% Fram Reykjavik 0 1369 47.43% 17.63%
23 2008-08-24 20.82 Valur Reykjavik 2 1422 37.80% @ Breidablik 0 1427 44.54% 17.66%
24 2008-09-13 20.59 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1242 30.68% @ Grindavik 1 1301 51.80% 17.52%
25 2008-08-24 20.19 Fram Reykjavik 2 1344 39.38% @ Grindavik 0 1338 42.94% 17.67%