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2004 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

37 points · 1st Title

Relegated

KA Akureyri

15 pts

Vikingur Reykjavik · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

9.10 points above expected

37 points · 27.90 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

5.38 points below expected

17 points · 22.38 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 18 10 7 1 37 33 16 +17 27.90 +9.10
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 4 5 31 35 20 +15 26.93 +4.07
3 IA Akranes 18 8 7 3 31 28 19 +9 25.95 +5.05
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 26 20 +6 27.21 +1.79
5 Keflavik IF 18 7 3 8 24 31 33 -2 24.34 -0.34
6 KR Reykjavik 18 5 7 6 22 21 22 -1 24.85 -2.85
7 Grindavik 18 5 7 6 22 24 31 -7 21.98 +0.02
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 19 28 -9 22.38 -5.38
9 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 19 30 -11 21.08 -5.08
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 13 30 -17 20.35 -5.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1299 37 27.90 +9.10 96.3% 8 19 24 28 32 37 46
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1271 31 26.93 +4.07 79.5% 7 18 23 27 31 36 45
IA Akranes 1238 31 25.95 +5.05 84.8% 7 17 22 26 30 35 48
Fylkir Reykjavik 1220 29 27.21 +1.79 67.1% 8 18 24 27 31 36 48
Keflavik IF 1186 24 24.34 -0.34 51.5% 5 16 21 24 28 33 46
KR Reykjavik 1178 22 24.85 -2.85 33.1% 7 16 21 25 28 34 46
Grindavik 1134 22 21.98 +0.02 54.6% 5 13 18 22 25 31 43
Fram Reykjavik 1121 17 22.38 -5.38 17.9% 4 14 19 22 26 31 46
Vikingur Reykjavik 1114 16 21.08 -5.08 19.8% 5 13 17 21 25 30 40
KA Akureyri 1068 15 20.35 -5.35 17.6% 4 12 17 20 24 29 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR KI VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
3.48
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
3.30
0-2-0
2.90
2-0-0
2.66
1-1-0
3.75
1-1-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.83
0-2-0
3.27
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.94
 —
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.53
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
3.15
 —
1-1-0
3.17
0-2-0
2.82
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.34
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.11
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.23
 —
0-2-0
2.27
0-1-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
2.35
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.79
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
3.06
0-2-0
2.57
0-2-0
3.12
 —
2-0-0
2.40
2-0-0
3.11
0-1-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.39
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.73
1-1-0
3.08
2-0-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.99
 —
2-0-0
3.11
0-2-0
2.98
2-0-0
2.77
1-0-1
3.50
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
1.71
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
1.87
0-1-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
2.30
 —
1-0-1
2.08
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
2.75
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
3.05
1-1-0
2.52
0-2-0
2.41
1-0-1
3.33
 —
0-1-1
2.66
2-0-0
2.90
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.94
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-2
2.62
2-0-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.73
 —
2-0-0
3.04
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.13
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.07
1-1-0
2.60
1-0-1
2.02
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.49
0-0-2
2.36
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +9.2
Allowed 0.66 -9.9
Differential 0.94 +6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%8.33%5.00%1.67%2.22%0.56%25.56%
18.33%14.44%7.78%2.78%1.67%0.56%35.56%
25.00%7.78%5.56%3.33%0.56%0.56%22.78%
31.67%2.78%3.33%1.11%0.56%—9.44%
42.22%1.67%0.56%0.56%——5.00%
5+0.56%0.56%0.56%———1.67%
Total25.56%35.56%22.78%9.44%5.00%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.75
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+———————
Total27.78%55.56%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.89 +0.94
SD 1.25 0.68 1.30
CV 0.68 0.76 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.56 -0.50
SD 1.11 1.62 2.09
CV 1.05 1.04 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
216.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%50.00%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.11 +0.33
SD 0.86 1.08 1.37
CV 0.59 0.97 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
1—22.22%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%—————5.56%
3——16.67%5.56%——22.22%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.33 1.23 1.54
CV 1.00 0.71 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
211.11%16.67%16.67%———44.44%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.06 +0.50
SD 1.38 1.06 1.92
CV 0.89 1.00 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.11 +0.83
SD 1.39 1.02 1.82
CV 0.72 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
116.67%5.56%22.22%———44.44%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%50.00%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.67 -0.94
SD 0.83 1.33 1.66
CV 1.14 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
2—16.67%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%5.56%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.22 -0.06
SD 0.92 1.11 1.21
CV 0.79 0.91 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
2—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%27.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.83 -0.11
SD 1.60 1.38 2.08
CV 0.93 0.75 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—11.11%——33.33%
15.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.67 -0.61
SD 1.00 1.33 1.54
CV 0.95 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 37 27.90 +9.10
2 IA Akranes 31 25.95 +5.05
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31 26.93 +4.07
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 27.21 +1.79
5 Grindavik 22 21.98 +0.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 17 22.38 -5.38
2 KA Akureyri 15 20.35 -5.35
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 16 21.08 -5.08
4 KR Reykjavik 22 24.85 -2.85
5 Keflavik IF 24 24.34 -0.34

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 23 – Jul 8 1 in 53
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 24
3 IA Akranes 3 Aug 31 – Sep 19 1 in 18
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 25 – Aug 9 1 in 11
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jul 14 – Jul 28 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 5 Jul 14 – Aug 15 1 in 95
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 13 – Sep 12 1 in 33
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 15 – Jun 28 1 in 26
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 16 – Jun 28 1 in 17
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 30 – Sep 12 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 May 28 – Sep 19 1 in 200
2 KR Reykjavik 6 Jul 6 – Aug 15 1 in 15
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 May 16 – Jun 23 1 in 14
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 18 1 in 12
5 IA Akranes 6 Aug 8 – Sep 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 10 May 20 – Jul 18 1 in 38
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Jun 29 – Aug 8 1 in 25
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jul 25 – Sep 19 1 in 11
4 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 11 – Aug 21 1 in 10
5 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 15 – Jul 8 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur24.18%17.03%14.30%11.51%9.66%7.59%5.92%4.48%3.57%1.76%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar18.78%15.89%13.66%12.07%10.09%8.66%7.30%6.03%4.72%2.80%
IA Akranes12.78%14.15%13.48%11.58%11.27%10.58%9.21%7.11%5.95%3.89%
Fylkir Reykjavik17.50%16.46%14.75%12.52%10.88%8.94%6.90%5.62%4.19%2.24%
Keflavik IF7.35%9.59%10.23%11.14%12.33%11.58%11.42%10.01%8.92%7.43%
KR Reykjavik8.53%10.32%11.12%12.15%12.34%11.36%10.37%9.62%8.13%6.06%
Grindavik3.32%4.76%6.46%8.11%9.14%11.08%12.64%14.26%14.79%15.44%
Fram Reykjavik3.70%5.41%6.81%8.86%9.25%11.60%12.54%13.51%14.59%13.73%
Vikingur Reykjavik2.30%3.64%5.29%6.81%7.72%9.95%11.89%14.37%17.34%20.69%
KA Akureyri1.56%2.75%3.90%5.25%7.32%8.66%11.81%14.99%17.80%25.96%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
37.78%28.89%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
136 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.4
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.26 * Some Luck: 4.26 to 6.38 * Lucky: 6.38 to 8.51 * Wild Swing: 8.51 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.9 * Close: 1.9 to 2.85 * Off: 2.85 to 3.81 * Way Off: 3.81 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.18 * A Surprise: 1.18 to 1.89 * Several Surprises: 1.89 to 2.6 * Many Surprises: 2.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.69 points
Some Luck
05.3213
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
02.385
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.34%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
17.65%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.16
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Clear Edge
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.18
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.77
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.24
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 94.67% 5.33%
Fylkir Reykjavik 93.57% 6.43%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 92.48% 7.52%
IA Akranes 90.16% 9.84%
KR Reykjavik 85.81% 14.19%
Keflavik IF 83.65% 16.35%
Fram Reykjavik 71.68% 28.32%
Grindavik 69.77% 30.23%
Vikingur Reykjavik 61.97% 38.03%
KA Akureyri 56.24% 43.76%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2004-05-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1188 1196 35.7% 30.6% 33.6% -9.3 0
2004-05-15 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1196 1188 33.6% 30.6% 35.7% +9.3 3
2004-05-16 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1192 1185 37.9% 30.6% 31.5% -0.3 1
2004-05-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1185 1192 31.5% 30.6% 37.9% +0.3 1
2004-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1169 1185 34.6% 30.6% 34.8% +0.0 1
2004-05-16 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1185 1169 34.8% 30.6% 34.6% -0.0 1
2004-05-16 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1172 1209 31.7% 30.6% 37.7% -8.1 0
2004-05-16 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1209 1172 37.7% 30.6% 31.7% +8.1 3
2004-05-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1163 1170 36.0% 30.6% 33.4% +24.3 3
2004-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1170 1163 33.4% 30.6% 36.0% -24.3 0
2004-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1185 1188 36.5% 30.6% 32.9% -0.2 2
2004-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1188 1185 32.9% 30.6% 36.5% +0.2 4
2004-05-20 Grindavik D 0-0 1192 1169 40.1% 30.4% 29.5% -0.6 2
2004-05-20 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1169 1192 29.5% 30.4% 40.1% +0.6 2
2004-05-20 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1217 1178 42.2% 30.2% 27.6% +12.6 6
2004-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1178 1217 27.6% 30.2% 42.2% -12.6 0
2004-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1145 1164 34.2% 30.6% 35.1% -9.0 0
2004-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1164 1145 35.1% 30.6% 34.2% +9.0 3
2004-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1186 1205 34.1% 30.6% 35.2% +9.2 4
2004-05-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1205 1186 35.2% 30.6% 34.1% -9.2 3
2004-05-25 IA Akranes L 0-2 1188 1192 36.4% 30.6% 33.0% -17.8 4
2004-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1192 1188 33.0% 30.6% 36.4% +17.8 5
2004-05-27 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1170 1195 33.3% 30.6% 36.1% -16.7 2
2004-05-27 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1195 1170 36.1% 30.6% 33.3% +16.7 7
2004-05-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1173 1185 35.2% 30.6% 34.2% -9.2 3
2004-05-27 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1185 1173 34.2% 30.6% 35.2% +9.2 5
2004-05-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1166 1136 41.0% 30.3% 28.7% +7.5 3
2004-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1136 1166 28.7% 30.3% 41.0% -7.5 0
2004-05-28 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1196 1229 32.2% 30.6% 37.2% +0.2 4
2004-05-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1229 1196 37.2% 30.6% 32.2% -0.2 7
2004-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1129 1196 27.8% 30.2% 41.9% +0.7 1
2004-06-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1196 1129 41.9% 30.2% 27.8% -0.7 5
2004-06-01 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1153 1170 34.4% 30.6% 34.9% +8.2 5
2004-06-01 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1170 1153 34.9% 30.6% 34.4% -8.2 4
2004-06-01 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1209 1164 43.2% 30.1% 26.7% +7.1 8
2004-06-01 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1164 1209 26.7% 30.1% 43.2% -7.1 3
2004-06-01 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1194 1173 39.8% 30.4% 29.7% -0.4 6
2004-06-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1173 1194 29.7% 30.4% 39.8% +0.4 4
2004-06-02 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1211 1229 34.4% 30.6% 35.0% +17.3 10
2004-06-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1229 1211 35.0% 30.6% 34.4% -17.3 7
2004-06-07 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1162 1229 27.9% 30.2% 41.9% +0.7 5
2004-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1229 1162 41.9% 30.2% 27.9% -0.7 11
2004-06-07 Grindavik D 1-1 1157 1161 36.2% 30.6% 33.1% -0.2 4
2004-06-07 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1161 1157 33.1% 30.6% 36.2% +0.1 6
2004-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1195 1194 37.1% 30.6% 32.3% +8.2 8
2004-06-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1194 1195 32.3% 30.6% 37.1% -8.2 6
2004-06-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1212 1129 48.0% 29.2% 22.8% +6.6 10
2004-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1129 1212 22.8% 29.2% 48.0% -6.6 1
2004-06-09 IA Akranes W 1-0 1174 1216 30.9% 30.5% 38.6% +9.8 7
2004-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1216 1174 38.6% 30.5% 30.9% -9.8 8
2004-06-15 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1186 1218 32.3% 30.6% 37.1% +34.2 9
2004-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1218 1186 37.1% 30.6% 32.3% -34.2 10
2004-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1228 1123 50.8% 28.6% 20.6% +5.7 14
2004-06-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1123 1228 20.6% 28.6% 50.8% -5.7 1
2004-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1207 1203 37.3% 30.6% 32.1% -0.2 9
2004-06-16 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1203 1207 32.1% 30.6% 37.3% +0.2 9
2004-06-16 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1163 1157 37.7% 30.6% 31.7% -9.7 5
2004-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1157 1163 31.7% 30.6% 37.7% +9.7 7
2004-06-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1161 1183 33.7% 30.6% 35.6% +0.1 7
2004-06-16 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1183 1161 35.6% 30.6% 33.7% -0.1 8
2004-06-21 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1183 1153 41.1% 30.3% 28.5% +21.7 11
2004-06-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1153 1183 28.5% 30.3% 41.1% -21.7 5
2004-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1166 1234 27.8% 30.2% 42.0% -14.6 7
2004-06-23 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1234 1166 42.0% 30.2% 27.8% +14.6 17
2004-06-23 Grindavik W 4-1 1204 1161 42.7% 30.1% 27.1% +17.6 12
2004-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1161 1204 27.1% 30.1% 42.7% -17.6 7
2004-06-23 IA Akranes L 0-2 1184 1206 33.7% 30.6% 35.7% -16.8 10
2004-06-23 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1206 1184 35.7% 30.6% 33.7% +16.9 12
2004-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1117 1220 23.8% 29.5% 46.6% +10.1 4
2004-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1220 1117 46.6% 29.5% 23.8% -10.1 9
2004-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1152 1205 29.5% 30.4% 40.1% +9.0 10
2004-06-27 @ KA Akureyri L 2-3 1205 1152 40.1% 30.4% 29.5% -9.0 11
2004-06-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1131 1221 25.2% 29.8% 45.0% -6.8 5
2004-06-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1221 1131 45.0% 29.8% 25.2% +6.8 15
2004-06-28 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1144 1167 33.6% 30.6% 35.8% +8.3 10
2004-06-28 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1167 1144 35.8% 30.6% 33.6% -8.3 10
2004-06-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1248 1210 42.3% 30.2% 27.5% -9.9 17
2004-06-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1210 1248 27.5% 30.2% 42.3% +9.9 12
2004-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1223 1127 49.7% 28.8% 21.5% -22.5 12
2004-06-29 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1127 1223 21.5% 28.8% 49.7% +22.5 7
2004-07-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1228 1196 41.4% 30.3% 28.3% -0.6 16
2004-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1196 1228 28.3% 30.3% 41.4% +0.6 12
2004-07-07 IA Akranes D 2-2 1238 1201 42.1% 30.2% 27.6% -0.5 18
2004-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1201 1238 27.6% 30.2% 42.1% +0.5 13
2004-07-08 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1159 1124 41.7% 30.3% 28.0% -0.7 11
2004-07-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1124 1159 28.0% 30.3% 41.7% +0.7 6
2004-07-08 Grindavik W 1-0 1150 1152 36.5% 30.6% 32.8% +8.8 10
2004-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1152 1150 32.8% 30.6% 36.5% -8.8 10
2004-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1197 1238 31.1% 30.5% 38.4% +0.4 13
2004-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1238 1197 38.4% 30.5% 31.1% -0.4 19
2004-07-10 IA Akranes L 0-1 1220 1201 39.5% 30.5% 30.1% -10.0 12
2004-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1201 1220 30.1% 30.5% 39.5% +10.0 16
2004-07-11 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1227 1161 46.0% 29.6% 24.4% -0.8 17
2004-07-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1161 1227 24.4% 29.6% 46.0% +0.8 11
2004-07-13 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1159 1125 41.6% 30.3% 28.1% -0.7 11
2004-07-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1125 1159 28.1% 30.3% 41.6% +0.7 7
2004-07-14 Grindavik W 2-0 1210 1143 45.9% 29.7% 24.4% +13.2 15
2004-07-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1143 1210 24.4% 29.7% 45.9% -13.2 10
2004-07-14 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1158 1161 36.4% 30.6% 33.0% +8.8 14
2004-07-14 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1161 1158 33.0% 30.6% 36.4% -8.8 11
2004-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1126 1223 24.4% 29.7% 45.9% -6.6 7
2004-07-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1223 1126 45.9% 29.7% 24.4% +6.6 18
2004-07-18 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1197 1167 41.1% 30.3% 28.6% -0.6 14
2004-07-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1167 1197 28.6% 30.3% 41.1% +0.6 15
2004-07-18 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1153 1158 36.1% 30.6% 33.2% -17.7 11
2004-07-18 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1158 1153 33.2% 30.6% 36.1% +17.7 14
2004-07-19 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1227 1238 35.3% 30.6% 34.1% +9.0 20
2004-07-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1238 1227 34.1% 30.6% 35.3% -9.0 19
2004-07-19 IA Akranes D 1-1 1130 1211 26.2% 30.0% 43.8% +0.9 11
2004-07-19 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1211 1130 43.8% 30.0% 26.2% -0.9 17
2004-07-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1168 1236 27.7% 30.2% 42.0% -7.7 15
2004-07-25 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1236 1168 42.0% 30.2% 27.7% +7.7 23
2004-07-25 Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 1210 1119 49.1% 29.0% 21.9% -42.3 17
2004-07-25 @ IA Akranes W 4-0 1119 1210 21.9% 29.0% 49.1% +42.3 10
2004-07-25 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1176 1196 33.9% 30.6% 35.4% -8.5 14
2004-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1196 1176 35.4% 30.6% 33.9% +8.5 17
2004-07-26 Grindavik D 1-1 1229 1131 49.9% 28.8% 21.3% -1.5 20
2004-07-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1131 1229 21.3% 28.8% 49.9% +1.5 12
2004-07-28 KA Akureyri W 4-0 1229 1135 49.5% 28.9% 21.6% +22.6 21
2004-07-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1135 1229 21.6% 28.9% 49.5% -22.6 11
2004-08-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-2 1160 1227 27.8% 30.2% 41.9% +15.3 18
2004-08-08 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 1227 1160 41.9% 30.2% 27.8% -15.3 20
2004-08-08 IA Akranes L 0-5 1112 1168 29.2% 30.4% 40.4% -35.5 11
2004-08-08 @ KA Akureyri W 5-0 1168 1112 40.4% 30.4% 29.2% +35.5 20
2004-08-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1205 1252 30.3% 30.5% 39.2% +0.5 18
2004-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1252 1205 39.2% 30.5% 30.3% -0.5 22
2004-08-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1243 1167 47.2% 29.4% 23.4% -1.3 24
2004-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1167 1243 23.4% 29.4% 47.2% +1.4 15
2004-08-09 Grindavik W 2-1 1161 1133 40.9% 30.3% 28.7% +7.5 13
2004-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1133 1161 28.7% 30.3% 40.9% -7.5 12
2004-08-13 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1168 1175 35.9% 30.6% 33.4% -8.4 15
2004-08-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1175 1168 33.4% 30.6% 35.9% +8.3 21
2004-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1252 1242 38.2% 30.6% 31.2% -16.0 22
2004-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1242 1252 31.2% 30.6% 38.2% +16.0 27
2004-08-15 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1212 1169 42.8% 30.1% 27.0% +7.6 23
2004-08-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1169 1212 27.0% 30.1% 42.8% -7.6 13
2004-08-15 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1125 1077 43.5% 30.0% 26.4% +14.1 15
2004-08-15 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1077 1125 26.4% 30.0% 43.5% -14.1 11
2004-08-15 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1204 1205 36.7% 30.6% 32.7% -0.2 21
2004-08-15 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1205 1204 32.7% 30.6% 36.7% +0.2 19
2004-08-21 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1063 1161 24.2% 29.6% 46.1% +1.2 12
2004-08-21 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1161 1063 46.1% 29.6% 24.2% -1.2 14
2004-08-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1160 1219 28.8% 30.3% 40.9% -13.0 15
2004-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1219 1160 40.9% 30.3% 28.8% +13.0 26
2004-08-22 IA Akranes D 2-2 1258 1203 44.4% 29.9% 25.7% -0.7 28
2004-08-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1203 1258 25.7% 29.9% 44.4% +0.7 22
2004-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-5 1184 1236 29.7% 30.4% 39.9% -16.3 21
2004-08-22 @ Keflavik IF W 5-2 1236 1184 39.9% 30.4% 29.7% +16.3 25
2004-08-23 Grindavik L 2-3 1205 1139 45.9% 29.7% 24.4% -10.0 19
2004-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1139 1205 24.4% 29.7% 45.9% +10.0 18
2004-08-29 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1252 1147 50.8% 28.6% 20.6% +16.6 28
2004-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1147 1252 20.6% 28.6% 50.8% -16.6 15
2004-08-30 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1232 1064 58.1% 26.1% 15.8% -13.5 26
2004-08-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1064 1232 15.8% 26.1% 58.1% +13.5 15
2004-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1149 1257 23.3% 29.4% 47.3% -24.1 18
2004-08-31 @ Grindavik W 4-0 1257 1149 47.3% 29.4% 23.3% +24.1 31
2004-08-31 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1204 1167 42.0% 30.2% 27.7% +7.3 25
2004-08-31 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1167 1204 27.7% 30.2% 42.0% -7.3 21
2004-08-31 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1160 1195 31.9% 30.6% 37.5% +9.6 17
2004-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1195 1160 37.5% 30.6% 31.9% -9.6 19
2004-09-12 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1281 1170 51.6% 28.3% 20.1% +13.7 34
2004-09-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1170 1281 20.1% 28.3% 51.6% -13.7 17
2004-09-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1269 1219 43.7% 30.0% 26.2% +12.1 31
2004-09-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1219 1269 26.2% 30.0% 43.7% -12.1 26
2004-09-12 Grindavik L 3-4 1160 1125 41.7% 30.3% 28.0% -9.1 21
2004-09-12 @ Keflavik IF W 4-3 1125 1160 28.0% 30.3% 41.7% +9.1 21
2004-09-12 IA Akranes L 1-4 1130 1211 26.2% 30.0% 43.8% -17.1 15
2004-09-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1211 1130 43.8% 30.0% 26.2% +17.1 28
2004-09-12 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1186 1077 51.2% 28.4% 20.3% +5.7 22
2004-09-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1077 1186 20.3% 28.4% 51.2% -5.7 15
2004-09-19 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1072 1295 14.3% 25.0% 60.7% -4.0 15
2004-09-19 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1295 1072 60.7% 25.0% 14.3% +4.0 37
2004-09-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1229 1281 29.7% 30.4% 39.9% +9.5 31
2004-09-19 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1281 1229 39.9% 30.4% 29.7% -9.5 31
2004-09-19 Keflavik IF L 1-6 1156 1151 37.6% 30.6% 31.8% -35.3 17
2004-09-19 @ Fram Reykjavik W 6-1 1151 1156 31.8% 30.6% 37.6% +35.3 24
2004-09-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1207 1191 39.1% 30.5% 30.4% +13.6 29
2004-09-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1191 1207 30.4% 30.5% 39.1% -13.6 22
2004-09-19 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1134 1113 39.8% 30.4% 29.7% -0.3 22
2004-09-19 @ Grindavik D 3-3 1113 1134 29.7% 30.4% 39.8% +0.3 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-08-30 15.78% KA Akureyri 1064 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1232 0
2 2004-06-29 21.46% Vikingur Reykjavik 1127 2 @ IA Akranes 1223 0
3 2004-07-25 21.91% Fram Reykjavik 1119 4 @ IA Akranes 1210 0
4 2004-06-23 23.84% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1117 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1220 2
5 2004-08-23 24.41% Grindavik 1139 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1205 2
6 2004-06-29 27.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1210 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1248 1
7 2004-08-08 27.81% @ Keflavik IF 1160 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1227 2
8 2004-09-12 27.99% Grindavik 1125 4 @ Keflavik IF 1160 3
9 2004-06-27 29.53% @ KA Akureyri 1152 3 KR Reykjavik 1205 2
10 2004-09-19 29.69% @ IA Akranes 1229 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1281 1
11 2004-07-10 30.06% IA Akranes 1201 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1220 0
12 2004-06-09 30.90% @ KR Reykjavik 1174 1 IA Akranes 1216 0
13 2004-08-15 31.21% FH Hafnarfjordur 1242 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1252 1
14 2004-06-16 31.69% KA Akureyri 1157 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1163 0
15 2004-09-19 31.78% Keflavik IF 1151 6 @ Fram Reykjavik 1156 1
16 2004-08-31 31.91% @ Fram Reykjavik 1160 1 KR Reykjavik 1195 0
17 2004-06-15 32.26% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1186 4 Keflavik IF 1218 0
18 2004-05-25 33.03% IA Akranes 1192 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1188 0
19 2004-07-18 33.23% Vikingur Reykjavik 1158 2 @ KA Akureyri 1153 0
20 2004-08-13 33.44% Keflavik IF 1175 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1168 2
21 2004-06-28 33.55% @ Grindavik 1144 3 Keflavik IF 1167 2
22 2004-05-15 33.63% FH Hafnarfjordur 1196 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1188 0
23 2004-05-22 34.11% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1186 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1205 0
24 2004-05-27 34.18% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1185 1 @ KA Akureyri 1173 0
25 2004-06-02 34.38% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1211 2 Keflavik IF 1229 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-07-25 42.31 Fram Reykjavik 4 1119 21.91% @ IA Akranes 0 1210 49.10% 29.00%
2 2004-08-08 35.55 IA Akranes 5 1168 40.37% @ KA Akureyri 0 1112 29.23% 30.40%
3 2004-09-19 35.26 Keflavik IF 6 1151 31.78% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1156 37.64% 30.58%
4 2004-06-15 34.22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1186 32.26% Keflavik IF 0 1218 37.15% 30.60%
5 2004-05-16 24.30 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1163 35.99% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1170 33.38% 30.63%
6 2004-08-31 24.11 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1257 47.33% @ Grindavik 0 1149 23.28% 29.39%
7 2004-07-28 22.62 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1229 49.51% KA Akureyri 0 1135 21.60% 28.90%
8 2004-06-29 22.51 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1127 21.46% @ IA Akranes 0 1223 49.69% 28.85%
9 2004-06-21 21.68 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1183 41.14% Fram Reykjavik 0 1153 28.53% 30.33%
10 2004-05-25 17.76 IA Akranes 2 1192 33.03% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1188 36.35% 30.62%
11 2004-07-18 17.69 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1158 33.23% @ KA Akureyri 0 1153 36.15% 30.63%
12 2004-06-23 17.58 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1204 42.74% Grindavik 1 1161 27.11% 30.15%
13 2004-06-02 17.29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1211 34.38% Keflavik IF 0 1229 34.98% 30.64%
14 2004-09-12 17.12 IA Akranes 4 1211 43.80% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1130 26.20% 30.01%
15 2004-06-23 16.85 IA Akranes 2 1206 35.66% @ Keflavik IF 0 1184 33.70% 30.63%
16 2004-05-27 16.71 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1195 36.06% @ Grindavik 0 1170 33.32% 30.63%
17 2004-08-29 16.65 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1252 50.78% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1147 20.65% 28.57%
18 2004-08-22 16.31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1236 39.86% @ Keflavik IF 2 1184 29.70% 30.44%
19 2004-08-15 15.95 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1242 31.21% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1252 38.25% 30.55%
20 2004-08-08 15.28 @ Keflavik IF 4 1160 27.81% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1227 41.95% 30.24%
21 2004-06-23 14.63 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1234 41.99% @ KA Akureyri 0 1166 27.77% 30.24%
22 2004-08-15 14.07 @ Grindavik 2 1125 43.55% KA Akureyri 0 1077 26.41% 30.04%
23 2004-09-12 13.68 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1281 51.59% Fram Reykjavik 1 1170 20.06% 28.34%
24 2004-09-19 13.56 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1207 39.05% KR Reykjavik 1 1191 30.45% 30.50%
25 2004-08-30 13.53 KA Akureyri 1 1064 15.78% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1232 58.14% 26.08%