Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1996
‹ ›

1996 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

40 points · 14th Title

Last Title: 1995.0

Relegated

Breidablik

16 pts

Fylkir Reykjavik · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IF Leiftur

8.00 points above expected

29 points · 21.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Keflavik IF

6.71 points below expected

19 points · 25.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 13 1 4 40 46 19 +27 40.17 -0.17
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 4 3 37 38 16 +22 33.40 +3.60
3 IF Leiftur 18 8 5 5 29 33 28 +5 21.00 +8.00
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 1 9 25 30 33 -3 28.74 -3.74
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 3 8 24 23 25 -2 24.77 -0.77
6 Stjarnan 18 6 5 7 23 25 32 -7 20.35 +2.65
7 Keflavik IF 18 4 7 7 19 16 28 -12 25.71 -6.71
8 Grindavik 18 5 4 9 19 23 34 -11 22.25 -3.25
9 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 3 10 18 26 30 -4 16.64 +1.36
10 Breidablik Relegated 18 3 7 8 16 20 35 -15 18.51 -2.51

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1714 40 40.17 -0.17 51.1% 19 32 37 40 44 48 54
KR Reykjavik 1610 37 33.40 +3.60 78.0% 12 25 30 33 37 42 54
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1514 25 28.74 -3.74 27.6% 8 20 25 29 32 38 50
Valur Reykjavik 1468 24 24.77 -0.77 48.2% 5 16 21 25 28 34 44
Keflavik IF 1466 19 25.71 -6.71 12.8% 7 17 22 26 29 35 47
Grindavik 1436 19 22.25 -3.25 30.8% 5 13 19 22 26 31 42
IF Leiftur 1431 29 21.00 +8.00 94.4% 3 12 17 21 25 30 40
Stjarnan 1412 23 20.35 +2.65 72.6% 2 12 17 20 24 29 42
Breidablik 1384 16 18.51 -2.51 35.1% 2 10 15 18 22 27 39
Fylkir Reykjavik 1362 18 16.64 +1.36 65.4% 1 9 13 16 20 25 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI STJ VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
3.12
0-2-0
2.25
1-0-1
0.88
0-0-2
1.75
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
1.32
0-2-0
2.03
1-1-0
2.51
0-1-1
2.11
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.43
 —
1-0-1
2.12
0-0-2
0.82
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
1.27
1-1-0
1.87
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
1.94
Grindavik
0-2-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.44
 —
0-0-2
1.09
1-0-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
2.37
0-1-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.51
IA Akranes
1-0-1
4.86
2-0-0
4.94
2-0-0
4.61
 —
1-0-1
4.18
0-1-1
4.70
1-0-1
3.52
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
4.65
2-0-0
4.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
3.96
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
1.44
 —
1-0-1
3.75
0-0-2
2.20
0-1-1
3.13
0-0-2
3.71
1-0-1
3.14
IF Leiftur
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.32
0-1-1
2.70
1-1-0
1.01
1-0-1
1.83
 —
1-0-1
1.54
0-1-1
2.33
2-0-0
2.77
1-1-0
2.37
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.32
1-1-0
4.39
2-0-0
3.96
1-0-1
2.04
2-0-0
3.36
1-0-1
4.07
 —
0-2-0
3.50
1-1-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.58
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
3.53
0-1-1
3.71
1-0-1
3.17
0-0-2
1.37
1-1-0
2.41
1-1-0
3.22
0-2-0
2.08
 —
0-0-2
3.40
1-0-1
2.86
Stjarnan
0-1-1
3.03
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.49
0-0-2
1.05
2-0-0
1.87
0-0-2
2.76
0-1-1
1.43
2-0-0
2.16
 —
0-1-1
2.40
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.63
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-2
1.99
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
3.15
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +8.4
Allowed 0.73 -10.9
Differential 0.95 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%7.22%5.00%2.78%2.22%0.56%25.56%
17.22%10.00%7.22%2.78%1.67%0.56%29.44%
25.00%7.22%3.33%4.44%1.67%1.11%22.78%
32.78%2.78%4.44%1.11%0.56%1.11%12.78%
42.22%1.67%1.67%0.56%——6.11%
5+0.56%0.56%1.11%1.11%——3.33%
Total25.56%29.44%22.78%12.78%6.11%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 1.89
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
111.11%22.22%—5.56%—5.56%44.44%
2———5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%5.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.94 -0.83
SD 0.96 1.89 1.92
CV 0.87 0.97 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
2———16.67%—5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.67 -0.22
SD 1.62 1.33 1.80
CV 1.12 0.80 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
15.56%—11.11%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%5.56%44.44%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.89 -0.61
SD 1.27 1.64 2.00
CV 1.00 0.87 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1———————
216.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%——5.56%——11.11%
Total38.89%38.89%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.06 +1.50
SD 1.62 1.21 1.79
CV 0.63 1.15 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%——5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
3——22.22%———22.22%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.83 -0.17
SD 1.37 0.99 1.69
CV 0.82 0.54 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
1—11.11%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.56 +0.28
SD 1.38 1.15 1.36
CV 0.75 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%16.67%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.89 +1.22
SD 1.41 1.08 1.93
CV 0.67 1.21 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
15.56%27.78%11.11%———44.44%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%55.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.56 -0.67
SD 0.76 1.29 1.71
CV 0.85 0.83 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—33.33%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
35.56%——5.56%—5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%11.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.78 -0.39
SD 1.04 1.66 1.65
CV 0.75 0.94 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total27.78%22.22%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.39 -0.11
SD 1.49 1.09 1.88
CV 1.16 0.79 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Leiftur 29 21.00 +8.00
2 KR Reykjavik 37 33.40 +3.60
3 Stjarnan 23 20.35 +2.65
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 16.64 +1.36
5 IA Akranes 40 40.17 -0.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 19 25.71 -6.71
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 25 28.74 -3.74
3 Grindavik 19 22.25 -3.25
4 Breidablik 16 18.51 -2.51
5 Valur Reykjavik 24 24.77 -0.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 8 May 27 – Jul 22 1 in 197
2 Breidablik 2 Aug 17 – Aug 29 1 in 71
3 IF Leiftur 3 Aug 29 – Sep 15 1 in 23
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 7 – Aug 11 1 in 16
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 27 – Jun 16 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 5 Aug 11 – Sep 15 1 in 68
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 May 27 – Jul 21 1 in 52
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 24 – Jul 11 1 in 41
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 11 – Sep 7 1 in 21
5 Keflavik IF 3 Aug 1 – Aug 11 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Leiftur 7 Jun 24 – Aug 11 1 in 114
2 Breidablik 3 Aug 17 – Sep 7 1 in 26
3 KR Reykjavik 10 May 23 – Jul 25 1 in 23
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 24 – Aug 11 1 in 11
5 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 27 – Jul 25 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 6 May 23 – Jun 27 1 in 36
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jun 24 – Jul 31 1 in 21
3 Grindavik 6 Aug 1 – Sep 15 1 in 15
4 Breidablik 8 May 23 – Jul 11 1 in 14
5 KR Reykjavik 2 Jul 25 – Aug 1 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes77.38%16.79%4.04%1.23%0.39%0.10%0.06%0.01%——
KR Reykjavik15.68%45.93%20.30%9.27%4.54%2.38%1.20%0.48%0.15%0.07%
IF Leiftur0.19%1.69%5.81%9.83%12.09%14.58%16.32%15.65%13.18%10.66%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar3.83%17.47%26.77%18.99%13.14%8.80%5.22%3.39%1.58%0.81%
Valur Reykjavik1.08%6.30%13.74%17.61%16.55%14.82%11.93%8.41%5.86%3.70%
Stjarnan0.14%1.16%4.02%7.58%10.86%13.39%15.20%16.71%17.30%13.64%
Keflavik IF1.36%7.29%15.62%17.92%17.34%13.56%10.86%7.64%5.53%2.88%
Grindavik0.25%2.69%6.74%11.06%13.63%15.59%15.30%14.14%11.94%8.66%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.02%0.24%1.14%2.42%4.80%7.37%10.47%15.98%22.44%35.12%
Breidablik0.07%0.44%1.82%4.09%6.66%9.41%13.44%17.59%22.02%24.46%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
46.67%22.22%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 54.49 Elo pts.
217 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
77%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.350.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.21 * Some Luck: 4.21 to 6.31 * Lucky: 6.31 to 8.42 * Wild Swing: 8.42 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.74 * Off: 1.74 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.96 * A Surprise: 0.96 to 1.54 * Several Surprises: 1.54 to 2.11 * Many Surprises: 2.11 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.03 points
As Expected
05.2613
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.453
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.41%
IF Leiftur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
12.83%
Keflavik IF
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.27
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
62%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Strong Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.57
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.38
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.76
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.101
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
KR Reykjavik 99.78% 0.22%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 97.61% 2.39%
Keflavik IF 91.59% 8.41%
Valur Reykjavik 90.44% 9.56%
Grindavik 79.40% 20.60%
IF Leiftur 76.16% 23.84%
Stjarnan 69.06% 30.94%
Breidablik 53.52% 46.48%
Fylkir Reykjavik 42.44% 57.56%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1996-05-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-6 1405 1347 53.7% 21.8% 24.5% -20.4 0
1996-05-23 @ Breidablik W 6-1 1347 1405 24.5% 21.8% 53.7% +20.4 3
1996-05-23 Stjarnan W 3-1 1695 1409 77.9% 12.4% 9.7% +1.7 3
1996-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1409 1695 9.7% 12.4% 77.9% -1.7 0
1996-05-23 IF Leiftur L 1-3 1541 1402 63.5% 18.8% 17.7% -10.5 0
1996-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1402 1541 17.7% 18.8% 63.5% +10.5 3
1996-05-23 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1501 1564 36.9% 23.5% 39.6% +0.0 1
1996-05-23 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1564 1501 39.6% 23.5% 36.9% -0.0 1
1996-05-23 Grindavik W 2-0 1478 1454 49.2% 22.7% 28.1% +6.2 3
1996-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1454 1478 28.1% 22.7% 49.2% -6.2 0
1996-05-27 Breidablik D 0-0 1448 1385 54.3% 21.6% 24.0% -0.8 1
1996-05-27 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1385 1448 24.0% 21.6% 54.3% +0.8 1
1996-05-27 Keflavik IF W 5-0 1696 1501 69.6% 16.4% 14.1% +7.2 6
1996-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-5 1501 1696 14.1% 16.4% 69.6% -7.2 1
1996-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1531 1484 52.2% 22.1% 25.7% +3.0 3
1996-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1484 1531 25.7% 22.1% 52.2% -3.0 3
1996-05-27 IF Leiftur W 2-1 1564 1412 64.9% 18.3% 16.8% +1.9 4
1996-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1412 1564 16.8% 18.3% 64.9% -1.9 3
1996-05-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1408 1368 51.3% 22.3% 26.4% +3.1 3
1996-05-27 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1368 1408 26.4% 22.3% 51.3% -3.1 3
1996-06-07 Grindavik L 1-2 1364 1447 34.3% 23.4% 42.2% -3.7 3
1996-06-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1447 1364 42.2% 23.4% 34.3% +3.7 4
1996-06-07 Stjarnan L 0-1 1493 1411 56.8% 21.0% 22.2% -5.9 1
1996-06-07 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1411 1493 22.2% 21.0% 56.8% +5.9 6
1996-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1385 1534 26.4% 22.3% 51.2% -2.8 1
1996-06-08 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1534 1385 51.2% 22.3% 26.4% +2.8 6
1996-06-08 IA Akranes W 4-3 1411 1704 14.8% 16.9% 68.4% +5.9 6
1996-06-08 @ IF Leiftur L 3-4 1704 1411 68.4% 16.9% 14.8% -5.9 6
1996-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1481 1566 34.0% 23.4% 42.6% -10.6 3
1996-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1566 1481 42.6% 23.4% 34.0% +10.6 7
1996-06-12 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1698 1471 72.7% 14.9% 12.4% +1.3 9
1996-06-12 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1471 1698 12.4% 14.9% 72.7% -1.3 3
1996-06-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1537 1361 67.5% 17.2% 15.3% +1.6 9
1996-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1361 1537 15.3% 17.2% 67.5% -1.6 3
1996-06-12 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1488 1416 55.4% 21.4% 23.2% -0.8 2
1996-06-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1416 1488 23.2% 21.4% 55.4% +0.8 7
1996-06-12 Breidablik W 5-2 1577 1383 69.4% 16.4% 14.2% +3.3 10
1996-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-5 1383 1577 14.2% 16.4% 69.4% -3.3 1
1996-06-13 Grindavik D 2-2 1416 1451 41.1% 23.5% 35.4% -0.1 7
1996-06-13 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1451 1416 35.4% 23.5% 41.1% +0.1 5
1996-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1417 1538 29.5% 22.9% 47.6% -8.0 7
1996-06-16 @ IF Leiftur W 4-1 1538 1417 47.6% 22.9% 29.5% +8.0 12
1996-06-16 IA Akranes L 0-2 1416 1699 15.4% 17.3% 67.3% -3.4 7
1996-06-16 @ Stjarnan W 2-0 1699 1416 67.3% 17.3% 15.4% +3.4 12
1996-06-24 IA Akranes L 0-4 1379 1702 13.1% 15.5% 71.4% -5.4 1
1996-06-24 @ Breidablik W 4-0 1702 1379 71.4% 15.5% 13.1% +5.3 15
1996-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1359 1580 19.7% 19.9% 60.3% -4.5 3
1996-06-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1580 1359 60.3% 19.9% 19.7% +4.4 13
1996-06-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1451 1546 32.7% 23.3% 44.0% +4.2 8
1996-06-24 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1546 1451 44.0% 23.3% 32.7% -4.2 12
1996-06-24 Stjarnan W 5-3 1409 1413 45.4% 23.2% 31.4% +5.0 10
1996-06-24 @ IF Leiftur L 3-5 1413 1409 31.4% 23.2% 45.4% -5.0 7
1996-06-24 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1469 1487 43.5% 23.4% 33.2% +3.6 6
1996-06-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1487 1469 33.2% 23.4% 43.5% -3.6 2
1996-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1708 1355 83.1% 9.7% 7.2% +0.7 18
1996-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1355 1708 7.2% 9.7% 83.1% -0.7 3
1996-06-27 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1414 1473 37.6% 23.6% 38.8% +0.0 11
1996-06-27 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1473 1414 38.8% 23.6% 37.6% -0.0 7
1996-06-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1483 1374 60.0% 20.1% 20.0% -1.0 3
1996-06-27 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1374 1483 20.0% 20.1% 60.0% +1.0 2
1996-06-27 Grindavik W 4-0 1585 1455 62.4% 19.2% 18.4% +7.8 16
1996-06-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1455 1585 18.4% 19.2% 62.4% -7.8 8
1996-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1408 1542 28.0% 22.7% 49.3% +5.2 10
1996-06-27 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1542 1408 49.3% 22.7% 28.0% -5.2 12
1996-07-07 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1375 1414 40.4% 23.5% 36.1% -0.1 3
1996-07-07 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1414 1375 36.1% 23.5% 40.4% +0.1 12
1996-07-07 IA Akranes L 0-2 1447 1708 16.8% 18.3% 64.9% -3.7 8
1996-07-07 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1708 1447 64.9% 18.3% 16.8% +3.7 21
1996-07-07 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1537 1592 38.0% 23.6% 38.4% -15.2 12
1996-07-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1592 1537 38.4% 23.6% 38.0% +15.2 19
1996-07-07 Stjarnan D 0-0 1473 1413 53.9% 21.8% 24.4% -0.8 8
1996-07-07 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1413 1473 24.4% 21.8% 53.9% +0.8 11
1996-07-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1712 1521 69.0% 16.6% 14.4% +1.6 24
1996-07-11 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1521 1712 14.4% 16.6% 69.0% -1.6 12
1996-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1414 1354 54.0% 21.7% 24.3% +2.7 15
1996-07-11 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1354 1414 24.3% 21.7% 54.0% -2.7 3
1996-07-11 Grindavik W 2-1 1482 1444 51.2% 22.3% 26.5% +3.0 6
1996-07-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1444 1482 26.5% 22.3% 51.2% -3.0 8
1996-07-11 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1414 1608 22.0% 20.9% 57.0% -6.1 11
1996-07-11 @ Stjarnan W 4-1 1608 1414 57.0% 20.9% 22.0% +6.1 22
1996-07-11 Breidablik W 2-0 1472 1375 58.6% 20.5% 20.9% +4.7 11
1996-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1375 1472 20.9% 20.5% 58.6% -4.7 3
1996-07-21 Stjarnan W 3-0 1370 1408 40.6% 23.5% 35.9% +11.1 6
1996-07-21 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1408 1370 35.9% 23.5% 40.6% -11.1 11
1996-07-21 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1351 1477 29.0% 22.8% 48.2% -3.4 3
1996-07-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1477 1351 48.2% 22.8% 29.0% +3.4 14
1996-07-21 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1441 1417 49.1% 22.7% 28.2% -0.4 9
1996-07-21 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1417 1441 28.2% 22.7% 49.1% +0.4 16
1996-07-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1520 1485 50.6% 22.4% 26.9% -0.5 13
1996-07-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1485 1520 26.9% 22.4% 50.6% +0.5 7
1996-07-22 IA Akranes W 1-0 1614 1714 32.0% 23.3% 44.7% +4.8 25
1996-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1714 1614 44.7% 23.3% 32.0% -4.8 24
1996-07-24 Breidablik W 1-0 1348 1381 41.2% 23.5% 35.2% +4.0 6
1996-07-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1381 1348 35.2% 23.5% 41.2% -4.0 6
1996-07-25 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1440 1480 40.3% 23.5% 36.2% +7.7 12
1996-07-25 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1480 1440 36.2% 23.5% 40.3% -7.7 14
1996-07-25 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1618 1486 62.7% 19.1% 18.2% -1.1 26
1996-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1486 1618 18.2% 19.1% 62.7% +1.1 8
1996-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1472 1519 39.3% 23.6% 37.1% +6.8 17
1996-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1519 1472 37.1% 23.6% 39.3% -6.8 13
1996-08-01 Grindavik D 0-0 1377 1448 35.9% 23.5% 40.5% +0.1 7
1996-08-01 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1448 1377 40.5% 23.5% 35.9% -0.1 13
1996-08-01 Stjarnan D 0-0 1352 1397 39.6% 23.5% 36.8% -0.1 7
1996-08-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1397 1352 36.8% 23.5% 39.6% +0.1 12
1996-08-01 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1417 1617 21.5% 20.7% 57.8% +5.6 19
1996-08-01 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1617 1417 57.8% 20.7% 21.5% -5.6 26
1996-08-01 IA Akranes L 0-3 1487 1709 19.7% 19.9% 60.5% -6.4 8
1996-08-01 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 1709 1487 60.5% 19.9% 19.7% +6.4 27
1996-08-07 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1352 1480 28.6% 22.8% 48.6% +5.2 10
1996-08-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1480 1352 48.6% 22.8% 28.6% -5.2 8
1996-08-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1448 1357 57.8% 20.7% 21.5% -8.7 13
1996-08-11 @ Grindavik W 4-2 1357 1448 21.5% 20.7% 57.8% +8.7 13
1996-08-11 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1715 1423 78.5% 12.1% 9.4% -1.9 28
1996-08-11 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1423 1715 9.4% 12.1% 78.5% +1.9 20
1996-08-11 Breidablik W 4-2 1513 1377 63.0% 19.0% 18.0% +3.1 16
1996-08-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-4 1377 1513 18.0% 19.0% 63.0% -3.1 7
1996-08-11 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1612 1479 62.7% 19.1% 18.2% +5.9 29
1996-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1479 1612 18.2% 19.1% 62.7% -5.9 17
1996-08-11 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1397 1475 34.9% 23.5% 41.6% +4.3 15
1996-08-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1475 1397 41.6% 23.5% 34.9% -4.3 8
1996-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1366 1516 26.3% 22.3% 51.5% -2.8 13
1996-08-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1516 1366 51.5% 22.3% 26.3% +2.8 19
1996-08-17 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1374 1618 18.0% 19.0% 62.9% +6.4 10
1996-08-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1618 1374 62.9% 19.0% 18.0% -6.4 29
1996-08-17 IA Akranes L 1-3 1473 1714 18.3% 19.2% 62.6% -3.5 17
1996-08-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1714 1473 62.6% 19.2% 18.3% +3.5 31
1996-08-18 Stjarnan L 0-3 1439 1401 51.1% 22.4% 26.6% -14.7 13
1996-08-18 @ Grindavik W 3-0 1401 1439 26.6% 22.4% 51.1% +14.7 18
1996-08-18 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1425 1471 39.4% 23.5% 37.0% -4.1 20
1996-08-18 @ IF Leiftur W 2-1 1471 1425 37.0% 23.5% 39.4% +4.1 11
1996-08-29 Breidablik L 0-1 1717 1381 81.9% 10.3% 7.8% -7.7 31
1996-08-29 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1381 1717 7.8% 10.3% 81.9% +7.7 13
1996-08-29 Grindavik W 2-1 1518 1424 58.2% 20.6% 21.2% +2.4 22
1996-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1424 1518 21.2% 20.6% 58.2% -2.4 13
1996-08-29 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1475 1470 46.7% 23.1% 30.3% +3.3 14
1996-08-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1470 1475 30.3% 23.1% 46.7% -3.3 17
1996-08-29 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1611 1363 74.7% 14.0% 11.3% -1.6 30
1996-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1363 1611 11.3% 14.0% 74.7% +1.5 14
1996-08-29 IF Leiftur L 2-3 1416 1421 45.2% 23.2% 31.6% -4.3 18
1996-08-29 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1421 1416 31.6% 23.2% 45.2% +4.3 23
1996-09-07 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1388 1478 33.3% 23.4% 43.3% +0.2 14
1996-09-07 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1478 1388 43.3% 23.4% 33.3% -0.2 15
1996-09-07 IA Akranes L 0-2 1364 1709 11.9% 14.5% 73.5% -2.5 14
1996-09-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1709 1364 73.5% 14.5% 11.9% +2.5 34
1996-09-07 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1422 1610 22.5% 21.1% 56.3% -5.1 13
1996-09-07 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1610 1422 56.3% 21.1% 22.5% +5.1 33
1996-09-07 Stjarnan L 1-2 1521 1411 60.0% 20.0% 19.9% -5.8 22
1996-09-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1411 1521 19.9% 20.0% 60.0% +5.8 21
1996-09-07 IF Leiftur L 0-2 1466 1425 51.5% 22.3% 26.2% -10.2 17
1996-09-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1425 1466 26.2% 22.3% 51.5% +10.2 26
1996-09-15 Grindavik W 6-3 1712 1417 78.7% 12.0% 9.3% +1.9 37
1996-09-15 @ IA Akranes L 3-6 1417 1712 9.3% 12.0% 78.7% -1.9 13
1996-09-15 Breidablik W 3-1 1435 1389 52.2% 22.1% 25.7% +5.0 29
1996-09-15 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1389 1435 25.7% 22.1% 52.2% -5.0 14
1996-09-15 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1478 1362 60.8% 19.8% 19.4% -1.1 16
1996-09-15 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1362 1478 19.4% 19.8% 60.8% +1.1 15
1996-09-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1615 1515 58.9% 20.4% 20.7% +2.5 36
1996-09-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1515 1615 20.7% 20.4% 58.9% -2.5 22
1996-09-15 Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1417 1456 40.4% 23.5% 36.0% -6.5 21
1996-09-15 @ Stjarnan W 4-2 1456 1417 36.0% 23.5% 40.4% +6.5 20
1996-09-21 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1384 1463 34.8% 23.5% 41.8% +0.2 15
1996-09-21 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1463 1384 41.8% 23.5% 34.8% -0.2 21
1996-09-21 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1363 1440 35.0% 23.5% 41.5% +4.1 18
1996-09-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1440 1363 41.5% 23.5% 35.0% -4.1 29
1996-09-21 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1415 1477 37.1% 23.6% 39.3% +15.6 16
1996-09-21 @ Grindavik L 0-4 1477 1415 39.3% 23.6% 37.1% -15.6 16
1996-09-21 IA Akranes W 3-2 1513 1714 21.4% 20.7% 58.0% +5.3 25
1996-09-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1714 1513 58.0% 20.7% 21.4% -5.3 37
1996-09-21 Stjarnan D 1-1 1617 1411 70.7% 15.9% 13.5% -1.4 37
1996-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1411 1617 13.5% 15.9% 70.7% +1.4 22
1996-09-29 KR Reykjavik W 4-1 1708 1616 58.0% 20.7% 21.3% +5.9 40
1996-09-29 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1616 1708 21.3% 20.7% 58.0% -5.9 37
1996-09-29 Grindavik L 0-1 1436 1431 46.7% 23.0% 30.2% -5.0 29
1996-09-29 @ IF Leiftur W 1-0 1431 1436 30.2% 23.0% 46.7% +5.0 19
1996-09-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1462 1518 38.0% 23.6% 38.5% +4.3 19
1996-09-29 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1518 1462 38.5% 23.6% 38.0% -4.3 25
1996-09-29 Breidablik D 3-3 1412 1384 49.8% 22.6% 27.6% -0.3 23
1996-09-29 @ Stjarnan D 3-3 1384 1412 27.6% 22.6% 49.8% +0.3 16
1996-09-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-2 1463 1367 58.4% 20.6% 21.1% +5.1 24
1996-09-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-5 1367 1463 21.1% 20.6% 58.4% -5.0 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1996-08-29 7.76% Breidablik 1381 1 @ IA Akranes 1717 0
2 1996-06-08 14.76% @ IF Leiftur 1411 4 IA Akranes 1704 3
3 1996-05-23 17.69% IF Leiftur 1402 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1541 1
4 1996-08-17 18.03% @ Breidablik 1374 1 KR Reykjavik 1618 0
5 1996-09-07 19.94% Stjarnan 1411 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1521 1
6 1996-09-21 21.36% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1513 3 IA Akranes 1714 2
7 1996-08-01 21.47% @ IF Leiftur 1417 2 KR Reykjavik 1617 1
8 1996-08-11 21.49% Fylkir Reykjavik 1357 4 @ Grindavik 1448 2
9 1996-06-07 22.18% Stjarnan 1411 1 @ Keflavik IF 1493 0
10 1996-05-23 24.53% Fylkir Reykjavik 1347 6 @ Breidablik 1405 1
11 1996-09-07 26.22% IF Leiftur 1425 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1466 0
12 1996-08-18 26.58% Stjarnan 1401 3 @ Grindavik 1439 0
13 1996-06-27 28.01% @ Stjarnan 1408 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1542 0
14 1996-08-07 28.61% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1352 1 Keflavik IF 1480 0
15 1996-09-29 30.25% Grindavik 1431 1 @ IF Leiftur 1436 0
16 1996-08-29 31.55% IF Leiftur 1421 3 @ Stjarnan 1416 2
17 1996-07-22 32.04% @ KR Reykjavik 1614 1 IA Akranes 1714 0
18 1996-06-24 32.66% @ Grindavik 1451 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1546 2
19 1996-08-11 34.87% @ Stjarnan 1397 2 Keflavik IF 1475 1
20 1996-09-21 35.03% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1363 3 IF Leiftur 1440 2
21 1996-09-15 36.04% Valur Reykjavik 1456 4 @ Stjarnan 1417 2
22 1996-08-18 37.02% Keflavik IF 1471 2 @ IF Leiftur 1425 1
23 1996-09-21 37.14% @ Grindavik 1415 4 Keflavik IF 1477 0
24 1996-09-29 37.95% @ Keflavik IF 1462 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1518 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-05-23 20.40 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1347 24.53% @ Breidablik 1 1405 53.66% 21.81%
2 1996-09-21 15.56 @ Grindavik 4 1415 37.14% Keflavik IF 0 1477 39.30% 23.56%
3 1996-07-07 15.17 KR Reykjavik 4 1592 38.41% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1537 38.03% 23.56%
4 1996-08-18 14.69 Stjarnan 3 1401 26.58% @ Grindavik 0 1439 51.06% 22.36%
5 1996-07-21 11.10 @ Breidablik 3 1370 40.63% Stjarnan 0 1408 35.85% 23.52%
6 1996-06-08 10.64 KR Reykjavik 3 1566 42.58% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1481 34.00% 23.43%
7 1996-05-23 10.47 IF Leiftur 3 1402 17.69% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1541 63.48% 18.83%
8 1996-09-07 10.19 IF Leiftur 2 1425 26.22% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1466 51.50% 22.27%
9 1996-08-11 8.68 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1357 21.49% @ Grindavik 2 1448 57.78% 20.73%
10 1996-06-16 7.97 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1538 47.57% @ IF Leiftur 1 1417 29.50% 22.93%
11 1996-06-27 7.84 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1585 62.37% Grindavik 0 1455 18.39% 19.24%
12 1996-08-29 7.70 Breidablik 1 1381 7.76% @ IA Akranes 0 1717 81.94% 10.31%
13 1996-07-25 7.69 @ Grindavik 2 1440 40.30% Valur Reykjavik 0 1480 36.17% 23.53%
14 1996-05-27 7.18 @ IA Akranes 5 1696 69.57% Keflavik IF 0 1501 14.08% 16.35%
15 1996-07-31 6.79 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1472 39.32% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1519 37.13% 23.56%
16 1996-09-15 6.50 Valur Reykjavik 4 1456 36.04% @ Stjarnan 2 1417 40.43% 23.53%
17 1996-08-01 6.44 IA Akranes 3 1709 60.46% @ Keflavik IF 0 1487 19.65% 19.90%
18 1996-08-17 6.36 @ Breidablik 1 1374 18.03% KR Reykjavik 0 1618 62.94% 19.03%
19 1996-05-23 6.24 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1478 49.19% Grindavik 0 1454 28.12% 22.69%
20 1996-07-11 6.09 KR Reykjavik 4 1608 57.03% @ Stjarnan 1 1414 22.02% 20.95%
21 1996-06-08 5.93 @ IF Leiftur 4 1411 14.76% IA Akranes 3 1704 68.36% 16.87%
22 1996-08-11 5.92 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1612 62.72% Valur Reykjavik 0 1479 18.17% 19.11%
23 1996-09-29 5.91 @ IA Akranes 4 1708 57.98% KR Reykjavik 1 1616 21.34% 20.67%
24 1996-06-07 5.86 Stjarnan 1 1411 22.18% @ Keflavik IF 0 1493 56.80% 21.01%
25 1996-09-07 5.78 Stjarnan 2 1411 19.94% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1521 60.02% 20.04%