1996 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

40 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

IF Leiftur

5.73 points above expected

29 points · 23.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Keflavik IF

5.77 points below expected

19 points · 24.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes 18 13 1 4 40 46 19 +27 39.1 +0.88
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 4 3 37 38 16 +22 34.8 +2.18
3 IF Leiftur 18 8 5 5 29 33 28 +5 23.3 +5.73
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 1 9 25 30 33 -3 27.2 -2.19
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 3 8 24 23 25 -2 23.9 +0.13
6 Stjarnan 18 6 5 7 23 25 32 -7 19.6 +3.41
7 Grindavik 18 5 4 9 19 23 34 -11 20.6 -1.65
8 Keflavik IF 18 4 7 7 19 16 28 -12 24.8 -5.77
9 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 5 3 10 18 26 30 -4 17.8 +0.18
10 Breidablik 18 3 7 8 16 20 35 -15 18.3 -2.34

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1719 40 39.12 +0.88 59.9% 18 31 36 39 43 47 54
KR Reykjavik 1642 37 34.82 +2.18 69.6% 13 26 31 35 38 43 54
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1483 25 27.19 -2.19 37.7% 7 18 24 27 31 36 47
IF Leiftur 1470 29 23.27 +5.73 87.7% 5 15 20 23 27 32 43
Valur Reykjavik 1458 24 23.87 +0.13 54.8% 4 15 20 24 27 33 44
Keflavik IF 1429 19 24.77 -5.77 15.9% 6 16 21 25 28 34 45
Grindavik 1421 19 20.65 -1.65 42.1% 3 12 17 21 24 29 40
Stjarnan 1407 23 19.59 +3.41 77.6% 3 11 16 19 23 28 42
Breidablik 1387 16 18.34 -2.34 36.5% 3 10 15 18 22 27 39
Fylkir Reykjavik 1381 18 17.82 +0.18 56.5% 2 10 14 18 21 26 37

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI STJ VR
Breidablik
0-0-2
3.13
0-2-0
2.28
1-0-1
0.90
0-0-2
1.87
0-1-1
2.12
1-0-1
1.14
0-2-0
2.13
1-1-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.18
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.38
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
0.92
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
2.05
0-1-1
1.26
1-1-0
2.08
0-1-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.13
Grindavik
0-2-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
1.01
1-0-1
1.95
1-1-0
2.38
0-0-2
1.35
1-0-1
2.24
0-1-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.40
IA Akranes
1-0-1
4.80
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
4.67
1-0-1
4.30
0-1-1
4.45
1-0-1
3.10
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
4.36
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
1.30
1-0-1
3.45
0-0-2
1.84
0-1-1
3.14
0-0-2
3.66
1-0-1
2.94
IF Leiftur
1-1-0
3.39
1-0-1
3.46
0-1-1
3.13
1-1-0
1.18
1-0-1
2.07
1-0-1
1.56
0-1-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.99
1-1-0
2.73
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.49
1-1-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.24
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
3.71
1-0-1
3.99
0-2-0
3.57
1-1-0
4.44
2-0-0
3.67
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
3.39
0-1-1
3.43
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-2
1.44
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
2.75
0-2-0
1.99
0-0-2
3.39
1-0-1
2.82
Stjarnan
0-1-1
3.02
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.50
0-0-2
1.13
2-0-0
1.86
0-0-2
2.50
0-1-1
1.19
2-0-0
2.12
0-1-1
2.53
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-2
1.25
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.76
0-0-2
1.88
1-0-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.97

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%7.22%5.00%2.78%2.22%0.56%25.56%
17.22%10.00%7.22%2.78%1.67%0.56%29.44%
25.00%7.22%3.33%4.44%1.67%1.11%22.78%
32.78%2.78%4.44%1.11%0.56%1.11%12.78%
42.22%1.67%1.67%0.56%6.11%
5+0.56%0.56%1.11%1.11%3.33%
Total25.56%29.44%22.78%12.78%6.11%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.56
StdDev scored1.37
StdDev allowed1.37
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (home vs away score)0.053
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
111.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+
Total27.78%27.78%5.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%100%

Breidablik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.11
Mean allowed1.94
StdDev scored0.96
StdDev allowed1.89
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.229
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%33.33%
111.11%5.56%11.11%27.78%
216.67%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%100%

Fylkir Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored1.62
StdDev allowed1.33
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.265
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%38.89%
15.56%11.11%16.67%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total27.78%5.56%44.44%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Grindavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed1.89
StdDev scored1.27
StdDev allowed1.64
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.072
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
1
216.67%11.11%5.56%33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%27.78%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%
Total38.89%38.89%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.56
Mean allowed1.06
StdDev scored1.62
StdDev allowed1.21
Mean total goals/game3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.224
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%
322.22%22.22%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.67
Mean allowed1.83
StdDev scored1.37
StdDev allowed0.99
Mean total goals/game3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.000
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%27.78%
311.11%5.56%16.67%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%16.67%5.56%100%

IF Leiftur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.83
Mean allowed1.56
StdDev scored1.38
StdDev allowed1.15
Mean total goals/game3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.432
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%
111.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
311.11%11.11%
411.11%5.56%16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.11
Mean allowed0.89
StdDev scored1.41
StdDev allowed1.08
Mean total goals/game3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.185
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
15.56%27.78%11.11%44.44%
216.67%5.56%22.22%
3
4
5+
Total11.11%55.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.89
Mean allowed1.56
StdDev scored0.76
StdDev allowed1.29
Mean total goals/game2.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.353
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
116.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
4
5+
Total33.33%16.67%11.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Stjarnan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored1.04
StdDev allowed1.66
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.326
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%11.11%38.89%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
211.11%5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total27.78%22.22%33.33%16.67%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored1.49
StdDev allowed1.09
Mean total goals/game2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.034
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Leiftur 29 23.3 +5.73
2 Stjarnan 23 19.6 +3.41
3 KR Reykjavik 37 34.8 +2.18
4 IA Akranes 40 39.1 +0.88
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 17.8 +0.18

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 19 24.8 -5.77
2 Breidablik 16 18.3 -2.34
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 25 27.2 -2.19
4 Grindavik 19 20.6 -1.65
5 Valur Reykjavik 24 23.9 +0.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 8 May 27 – Jul 22 1 in 164
2 Breidablik 2 Aug 17 – Aug 29 1 in 106
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 27 – Jun 16 1 in 18
4 IF Leiftur 3 Aug 29 – Sep 15 1 in 16
5 Grindavik 2 Sep 21 – Sep 29 1 in 14

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 May 27 – Jul 21 1 in 99
2 Grindavik 5 Aug 11 – Sep 15 1 in 57
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 24 – Jul 11 1 in 43
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 11 – Sep 7 1 in 17
5 Keflavik IF 3 Aug 1 – Aug 11 1 in 16

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Leiftur 7 Jun 24 – Aug 11 1 in 62
2 Breidablik 3 Aug 17 – Sep 7 1 in 27
3 KR Reykjavik 10 May 23 – Jul 25 1 in 16
4 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 27 – Jul 25 1 in 10
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 24 – Aug 11 1 in 8

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 6 May 23 – Jun 27 1 in 30
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jun 24 – Jul 31 1 in 17
3 Breidablik 8 May 23 – Jul 11 1 in 12
4 Grindavik 6 Aug 1 – Sep 15 1 in 11
5 KR Reykjavik 2 Jul 25 – Aug 1 1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes69.39%23.59%4.71%1.59%0.51%0.14%0.05%0.02%
KR Reykjavik25.52%49.64%14.84%5.62%2.32%1.20%0.58%0.20%0.07%0.01%
IF Leiftur0.50%3.74%12.64%15.39%16.08%15.06%12.66%10.96%7.78%5.19%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar2.31%10.87%26.14%20.50%14.05%10.63%6.76%4.70%2.85%1.19%
Valur Reykjavik0.85%4.24%13.67%16.25%16.35%14.61%12.76%9.49%7.12%4.66%
Stjarnan0.12%0.78%3.58%6.85%9.47%12.15%14.74%16.73%18.21%17.37%
Grindavik0.08%1.36%5.15%8.07%10.96%13.71%15.05%16.25%15.54%13.83%
Keflavik IF1.10%5.01%15.20%17.02%17.12%13.99%11.53%8.76%6.32%3.95%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.06%0.47%1.96%4.45%6.33%9.38%12.87%16.51%20.82%27.15%
Breidablik0.07%0.30%2.11%4.26%6.81%9.13%13.00%16.38%21.29%26.65%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100%
KR Reykjavik 99.9% 0.1%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 96.0% 4.0%
Keflavik IF 89.7% 10.3%
Valur Reykjavik 88.2% 11.8%
IF Leiftur 87.0% 13.0%
Grindavik 70.6% 29.4%
Stjarnan 64.4% 35.6%
Breidablik 52.1% 47.9%
Fylkir Reykjavik 52.0% 48.0%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1996-05-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-6 1436 1356 55.2% 23.5% 21.3% -50.5 0
1996-05-23 @ Breidablik W 6-1 1356 1436 21.3% 23.5% 55.2% +50.5 3
1996-05-23 Stjarnan W 3-1 1663 1397 74.7% 15.3% 10.0% +4.5 3
1996-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1397 1663 10.0% 15.3% 74.7% -4.5 0
1996-05-23 IF Leiftur L 1-3 1533 1420 58.9% 22.4% 18.7% -23.9 0
1996-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1420 1533 18.7% 22.4% 58.9% +23.8 3
1996-05-23 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1512 1556 38.5% 25.8% 35.7% -0.1 1
1996-05-23 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1556 1512 35.7% 25.8% 38.5% +0.1 1
1996-05-23 Grindavik W 2-0 1475 1449 48.2% 25.0% 26.8% +14.7 3
1996-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1449 1475 26.8% 25.0% 48.2% -14.7 0
1996-05-27 Breidablik D 0-0 1434 1386 51.2% 24.4% 24.4% -1.7 1
1996-05-27 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1386 1434 24.4% 24.4% 51.2% +1.7 1
1996-05-27 Keflavik IF W 5-0 1668 1512 63.8% 20.6% 15.7% +20.4 6
1996-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-5 1512 1668 15.7% 20.6% 63.8% -20.4 1
1996-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1509 1489 47.4% 25.1% 27.5% +8.0 3
1996-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1489 1509 27.5% 25.1% 47.4% -8.0 3
1996-05-27 IF Leiftur W 2-1 1556 1444 58.9% 22.4% 18.7% +5.3 4
1996-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1444 1556 18.7% 22.4% 58.9% -5.3 3
1996-05-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1392 1406 42.8% 25.6% 31.6% +8.9 3
1996-05-27 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1406 1392 31.6% 25.6% 42.8% -8.9 3
1996-06-07 Grindavik L 1-2 1397 1433 39.8% 25.7% 34.4% -10.0 3
1996-06-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1433 1397 34.4% 25.7% 39.8% +10.0 4
1996-06-07 Stjarnan L 0-1 1491 1401 56.3% 23.2% 20.5% -14.1 1
1996-06-07 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1401 1491 20.5% 23.2% 56.3% +14.1 6
1996-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1388 1517 27.4% 25.1% 47.5% -7.1 1
1996-06-08 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1517 1388 47.5% 25.1% 27.4% +7.1 6
1996-06-08 IA Akranes W 4-3 1439 1688 16.7% 21.3% 62.1% +13.3 6
1996-06-08 @ IF Leiftur L 3-4 1688 1439 62.1% 21.3% 16.7% -13.3 6
1996-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1481 1562 33.5% 25.7% 40.8% -25.6 3
1996-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1562 1481 40.8% 25.7% 33.5% +25.6 7
1996-06-12 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1675 1456 70.2% 17.6% 12.1% +3.3 9
1996-06-12 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1456 1675 12.1% 17.6% 70.2% -3.3 3
1996-06-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1524 1387 61.7% 21.4% 16.9% +4.5 9
1996-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1387 1524 16.9% 21.4% 61.7% -4.5 3
1996-06-12 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1477 1452 48.1% 25.0% 26.9% -1.2 2
1996-06-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1452 1477 26.9% 25.0% 48.1% +1.2 7
1996-06-12 Breidablik W 5-2 1587 1380 69.0% 18.2% 12.8% +7.3 10
1996-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-5 1380 1587 12.8% 18.2% 69.0% -7.3 1
1996-06-13 Grindavik D 2-2 1415 1443 40.9% 25.7% 33.4% -0.3 7
1996-06-13 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1443 1415 33.4% 25.7% 40.9% +0.3 5
1996-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1453 1529 34.2% 25.7% 40.1% -21.9 7
1996-06-16 @ IF Leiftur W 4-1 1529 1453 40.1% 25.7% 34.2% +21.9 12
1996-06-16 IA Akranes L 0-2 1415 1678 15.8% 20.7% 63.6% -8.8 7
1996-06-16 @ Stjarnan W 2-0 1678 1415 63.6% 20.7% 15.8% +8.8 12
1996-06-24 IA Akranes L 0-4 1373 1687 12.9% 18.3% 68.8% -13.2 1
1996-06-24 @ Breidablik W 4-0 1687 1373 68.8% 18.3% 12.9% +13.2 15
1996-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1383 1595 19.4% 22.7% 57.8% -10.9 3
1996-06-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1595 1383 57.8% 22.7% 19.4% +10.9 13
1996-06-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1443 1551 30.0% 25.4% 44.6% +10.4 8
1996-06-24 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1551 1443 44.6% 25.4% 30.0% -10.4 12
1996-06-24 Stjarnan W 5-3 1431 1406 48.2% 25.0% 26.9% +10.8 10
1996-06-24 @ IF Leiftur L 3-5 1406 1431 26.9% 25.0% 48.2% -10.8 7
1996-06-24 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1453 1476 41.5% 25.7% 32.8% +8.7 6
1996-06-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1476 1453 32.8% 25.7% 41.5% -8.7 2
1996-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1700 1372 80.0% 12.3% 7.7% +1.8 18
1996-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1372 1700 7.7% 12.3% 80.0% -1.8 3
1996-06-27 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1442 1461 42.1% 25.6% 32.2% -0.6 11
1996-06-27 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1461 1442 32.2% 25.6% 42.1% +0.6 7
1996-06-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1467 1360 58.3% 22.6% 19.1% -2.3 3
1996-06-27 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1360 1467 19.1% 22.6% 58.3% +2.3 2
1996-06-27 Grindavik W 4-0 1606 1453 63.3% 20.8% 15.9% +16.9 16
1996-06-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1453 1606 15.9% 20.8% 63.3% -16.8 8
1996-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1395 1540 25.7% 24.7% 49.6% +12.7 10
1996-06-27 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1540 1395 49.6% 24.7% 25.7% -12.7 12
1996-07-07 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1362 1441 33.6% 25.7% 40.6% +0.4 3
1996-07-07 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1441 1362 40.6% 25.7% 33.6% -0.4 12
1996-07-07 IA Akranes L 0-2 1437 1702 15.6% 20.6% 63.8% -8.7 8
1996-07-07 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1702 1437 63.8% 20.6% 15.6% +8.7 21
1996-07-07 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1527 1622 31.6% 25.6% 42.8% -31.9 12
1996-07-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1622 1527 42.8% 25.6% 31.6% +31.9 19
1996-07-07 Stjarnan D 0-0 1462 1408 51.9% 24.3% 23.8% -1.8 8
1996-07-07 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1408 1462 23.8% 24.3% 51.9% +1.8 11
1996-07-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1711 1496 69.8% 17.8% 12.3% +3.3 24
1996-07-11 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1496 1711 12.3% 17.8% 69.8% -3.3 12
1996-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1441 1370 54.0% 23.8% 22.2% +6.2 15
1996-07-11 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1370 1441 22.2% 23.8% 54.0% -6.2 3
1996-07-11 Grindavik W 2-1 1465 1428 49.7% 24.7% 25.6% +7.1 6
1996-07-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1428 1465 25.6% 24.7% 49.7% -7.1 8
1996-07-11 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1410 1654 17.0% 21.5% 61.5% -11.7 11
1996-07-11 @ Stjarnan W 4-1 1654 1410 61.5% 21.5% 17.0% +11.7 22
1996-07-11 Breidablik W 2-0 1460 1362 57.2% 22.9% 19.9% +11.2 11
1996-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1362 1460 19.9% 22.9% 57.2% -11.2 3
1996-07-21 Stjarnan W 3-0 1351 1398 38.2% 25.8% 36.0% +27.0 6
1996-07-21 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1398 1351 36.0% 25.8% 38.2% -27.0 11
1996-07-21 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1364 1471 30.0% 25.4% 44.6% -8.6 3
1996-07-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1471 1364 44.6% 25.4% 30.0% +8.6 14
1996-07-21 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1421 1447 41.1% 25.7% 33.2% -0.3 9
1996-07-21 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1447 1421 33.2% 25.7% 41.1% +0.3 16
1996-07-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1492 1472 47.5% 25.1% 27.4% -1.1 13
1996-07-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1472 1492 27.4% 25.1% 47.5% +1.1 7
1996-07-22 IA Akranes W 1-0 1666 1714 38.0% 25.8% 36.2% +9.9 25
1996-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1714 1666 36.2% 25.8% 38.0% -9.9 24
1996-07-24 Breidablik W 1-0 1355 1378 41.5% 25.7% 32.8% +9.2 6
1996-07-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1378 1355 32.8% 25.7% 41.5% -9.2 6
1996-07-25 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1420 1480 36.4% 25.8% 37.8% +19.3 12
1996-07-25 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1480 1420 37.8% 25.8% 36.4% -19.3 14
1996-07-25 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1676 1473 68.6% 18.4% 13.0% -3.3 26
1996-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1473 1676 13.0% 18.4% 68.6% +3.3 8
1996-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1461 1491 40.5% 25.7% 33.8% +15.3 17
1996-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1491 1461 33.8% 25.7% 40.5% -15.4 13
1996-08-01 Grindavik D 0-0 1369 1440 34.8% 25.8% 39.4% +0.3 7
1996-08-01 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1440 1369 39.4% 25.8% 34.8% -0.3 13
1996-08-01 Stjarnan D 0-0 1364 1371 43.9% 25.5% 30.6% -0.8 7
1996-08-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1371 1364 30.6% 25.5% 43.9% +0.8 12
1996-08-01 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1448 1673 18.4% 22.2% 59.3% +13.8 19
1996-08-01 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1673 1448 59.3% 22.2% 18.4% -13.8 26
1996-08-01 IA Akranes L 0-3 1476 1704 18.2% 22.1% 59.6% -14.9 8
1996-08-01 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 1704 1476 59.6% 22.1% 18.2% +14.9 27
1996-08-07 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1363 1462 31.2% 25.5% 43.3% +11.3 10
1996-08-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1462 1363 43.3% 25.5% 31.2% -11.3 8
1996-08-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1439 1375 53.2% 24.0% 22.8% -19.6 13
1996-08-11 @ Grindavik W 4-2 1375 1439 22.8% 24.0% 53.2% +19.6 13
1996-08-11 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1719 1461 73.9% 15.7% 10.4% -4.2 28
1996-08-11 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1461 1719 10.4% 15.7% 73.9% +4.2 20
1996-08-11 Breidablik W 4-2 1476 1369 58.2% 22.6% 19.2% +8.4 16
1996-08-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-4 1369 1476 19.2% 22.6% 58.2% -8.4 7
1996-08-11 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1659 1476 66.6% 19.4% 14.0% +11.2 29
1996-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1476 1659 14.0% 19.4% 66.6% -11.2 17
1996-08-11 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1372 1450 33.8% 25.7% 40.5% +10.2 15
1996-08-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1450 1372 40.5% 25.7% 33.8% -10.2 8
1996-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1394 1484 32.3% 25.6% 42.1% -8.1 13
1996-08-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1484 1394 42.1% 25.6% 32.3% +8.1 19
1996-08-17 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1361 1670 13.1% 18.6% 68.3% +16.4 10
1996-08-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1670 1361 68.3% 18.6% 13.1% -16.4 29
1996-08-17 IA Akranes L 1-3 1465 1715 16.6% 21.2% 62.1% -8.1 17
1996-08-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1715 1465 62.1% 21.2% 16.6% +8.1 31
1996-08-18 Stjarnan L 0-3 1420 1382 49.8% 24.7% 25.5% -34.8 13
1996-08-18 @ Grindavik W 3-0 1382 1420 25.5% 24.7% 49.8% +34.8 18
1996-08-18 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1466 1440 48.2% 25.0% 26.8% -11.7 20
1996-08-18 @ IF Leiftur W 2-1 1440 1466 26.8% 25.0% 48.2% +11.7 11
1996-08-29 Breidablik L 0-1 1723 1377 81.3% 11.5% 7.2% -18.3 31
1996-08-29 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1377 1723 7.2% 11.5% 81.3% +18.3 13
1996-08-29 Grindavik W 2-1 1492 1385 58.3% 22.6% 19.1% +5.4 22
1996-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1385 1492 19.1% 22.6% 58.3% -5.4 13
1996-08-29 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1452 1457 44.1% 25.5% 30.4% +8.2 14
1996-08-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1457 1452 30.4% 25.5% 44.1% -8.2 17
1996-08-29 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1654 1386 74.8% 15.2% 10.0% -3.8 30
1996-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1386 1654 10.0% 15.2% 74.8% +3.8 14
1996-08-29 IF Leiftur L 2-3 1417 1454 39.6% 25.8% 34.7% -9.5 18
1996-08-29 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1454 1417 34.7% 25.8% 39.6% +9.5 23
1996-09-07 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1396 1460 35.7% 25.8% 38.5% +0.1 14
1996-09-07 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1460 1396 38.5% 25.8% 35.7% -0.1 15
1996-09-07 IA Akranes L 0-2 1390 1705 12.8% 18.3% 68.9% -7.0 14
1996-09-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1705 1390 68.9% 18.3% 12.8% +7.0 34
1996-09-07 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1380 1650 15.3% 20.4% 64.3% -8.5 13
1996-09-07 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1650 1380 64.3% 20.4% 15.3% +8.5 33
1996-09-07 Stjarnan L 1-2 1498 1407 56.3% 23.2% 20.5% -13.3 22
1996-09-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1407 1498 20.5% 23.2% 56.3% +13.3 21
1996-09-07 IF Leiftur L 0-2 1448 1463 42.7% 25.6% 31.7% -21.2 17
1996-09-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1463 1448 31.7% 25.6% 42.7% +21.2 26
1996-09-15 Grindavik W 6-3 1712 1371 81.0% 11.7% 7.4% +3.5 37
1996-09-15 @ IA Akranes L 3-6 1371 1712 7.4% 11.7% 81.0% -3.5 13
1996-09-15 Breidablik W 3-1 1485 1396 56.1% 23.2% 20.6% +10.0 29
1996-09-15 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1396 1485 20.6% 23.2% 56.1% -10.1 14
1996-09-15 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1460 1383 54.7% 23.6% 21.7% -2.1 16
1996-09-15 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1383 1460 21.7% 23.6% 54.7% +2.1 15
1996-09-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1658 1484 65.6% 19.8% 14.6% +4.3 36
1996-09-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1484 1658 14.6% 19.8% 65.6% -4.3 22
1996-09-15 Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1420 1427 43.9% 25.5% 30.7% -16.8 21
1996-09-15 @ Stjarnan W 4-2 1427 1420 30.7% 25.5% 43.9% +16.8 20
1996-09-21 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1386 1444 36.6% 25.8% 37.6% +0.1 15
1996-09-21 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1444 1386 37.6% 25.8% 36.6% -0.1 21
1996-09-21 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1385 1495 29.8% 25.4% 44.8% +10.4 18
1996-09-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1495 1385 44.8% 25.4% 29.8% -10.4 29
1996-09-21 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1368 1458 32.2% 25.6% 42.1% +39.8 16
1996-09-21 @ Grindavik L 0-4 1458 1368 42.1% 25.6% 32.2% -39.8 16
1996-09-21 IA Akranes W 3-2 1480 1715 17.7% 21.9% 60.4% +13.3 25
1996-09-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1715 1480 60.4% 21.9% 17.7% -13.3 37
1996-09-21 Stjarnan D 1-1 1663 1404 74.0% 15.7% 10.3% -3.7 37
1996-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1404 1663 10.3% 15.7% 74.0% +3.7 22
1996-09-29 KR Reykjavik W 4-1 1702 1659 50.4% 24.6% 25.0% +16.9 40
1996-09-29 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1659 1702 25.0% 24.6% 50.4% -17.0 37
1996-09-29 Grindavik L 0-1 1484 1407 54.7% 23.6% 21.7% -13.7 29
1996-09-29 @ IF Leiftur W 1-0 1407 1484 21.7% 23.6% 54.7% +13.7 19
1996-09-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1418 1493 34.1% 25.7% 40.1% +10.7 19
1996-09-29 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1493 1418 40.1% 25.7% 34.1% -10.7 25
1996-09-29 Breidablik D 3-3 1407 1386 47.7% 25.0% 27.3% -0.7 23
1996-09-29 @ Stjarnan D 3-3 1386 1407 27.3% 25.0% 47.7% +0.7 16
1996-09-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-2 1444 1396 51.1% 24.4% 24.4% +14.4 24
1996-09-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-5 1396 1444 24.4% 24.4% 51.1% -14.4 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1996-08-29 7.20% Breidablik 1377 1 @ IA Akranes 1723 0
2 1996-08-17 13.11% @ Breidablik 1361 1 KR Reykjavik 1670 0
3 1996-06-08 16.68% @ IF Leiftur 1439 4 IA Akranes 1688 3
4 1996-09-21 17.70% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1480 3 IA Akranes 1715 2
5 1996-08-01 18.44% @ IF Leiftur 1448 2 KR Reykjavik 1673 1
6 1996-05-23 18.68% IF Leiftur 1420 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1533 1
7 1996-09-07 20.49% Stjarnan 1407 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1498 1
8 1996-06-07 20.51% Stjarnan 1401 1 @ Keflavik IF 1491 0
9 1996-05-23 21.32% Fylkir Reykjavik 1356 6 @ Breidablik 1436 1
10 1996-09-29 21.68% Grindavik 1407 1 @ IF Leiftur 1484 0
11 1996-08-11 22.81% Fylkir Reykjavik 1375 4 @ Grindavik 1439 2
12 1996-08-18 25.49% Stjarnan 1382 3 @ Grindavik 1420 0
13 1996-06-27 25.70% @ Stjarnan 1395 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1540 0
14 1996-08-18 26.83% Keflavik IF 1440 2 @ IF Leiftur 1466 1
15 1996-09-21 29.77% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1385 3 IF Leiftur 1495 2
16 1996-06-24 30.00% @ Grindavik 1443 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1551 2
17 1996-09-15 30.66% Valur Reykjavik 1427 4 @ Stjarnan 1420 2
18 1996-08-07 31.19% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1363 1 Keflavik IF 1462 0
19 1996-09-07 31.72% IF Leiftur 1463 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1448 0
20 1996-09-21 32.23% @ Grindavik 1368 4 Keflavik IF 1458 0
21 1996-08-11 33.76% @ Stjarnan 1372 2 Keflavik IF 1450 1
22 1996-09-29 34.14% @ Keflavik IF 1418 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1493 0
23 1996-06-07 34.44% Grindavik 1433 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1397 1
24 1996-08-29 34.68% IF Leiftur 1454 3 @ Stjarnan 1417 2
25 1996-07-25 36.41% @ Grindavik 1420 2 Valur Reykjavik 1480 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-05-23 50.52 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1356 21.32% @ Breidablik 1 1436 55.18%
2 1996-09-21 39.78 @ Grindavik 4 1368 32.23% Keflavik IF 0 1458 42.14%
3 1996-08-18 34.83 Stjarnan 3 1382 25.49% @ Grindavik 0 1420 49.82%
4 1996-07-07 31.93 KR Reykjavik 4 1622 42.83% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1527 31.60%
5 1996-07-21 27.01 @ Breidablik 3 1351 38.23% Stjarnan 0 1398 35.99%
6 1996-06-08 25.60 KR Reykjavik 3 1562 40.78% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1481 33.52%
7 1996-05-23 23.86 IF Leiftur 3 1420 18.68% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1533 58.94%
8 1996-06-16 21.90 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1529 40.10% @ IF Leiftur 1 1453 34.17%
9 1996-09-07 21.19 IF Leiftur 2 1463 31.72% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1448 42.70%
10 1996-05-27 20.40 @ IA Akranes 5 1668 63.76% Keflavik IF 0 1512 15.65%
11 1996-08-11 19.61 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1375 22.81% @ Grindavik 2 1439 53.20%
12 1996-07-25 19.29 @ Grindavik 2 1420 36.41% Valur Reykjavik 0 1480 37.81%
13 1996-08-29 18.35 Breidablik 1 1377 7.20% @ IA Akranes 0 1723 81.34%
14 1996-09-29 16.95 @ IA Akranes 4 1702 50.44% KR Reykjavik 1 1659 24.98%
15 1996-06-27 16.85 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1606 63.33% Grindavik 0 1453 15.90%
16 1996-09-15 16.76 Valur Reykjavik 4 1427 30.66% @ Stjarnan 2 1420 43.85%
17 1996-08-17 16.40 @ Breidablik 1 1361 13.11% KR Reykjavik 0 1670 68.32%
18 1996-07-31 15.35 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1461 40.51% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1491 33.78%
19 1996-08-01 14.90 IA Akranes 3 1704 59.62% @ Keflavik IF 0 1476 18.23%
20 1996-05-23 14.71 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1475 48.21% Grindavik 0 1449 26.83%
21 1996-09-29 14.39 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1444 51.14% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1396 24.42%
22 1996-06-07 14.07 Stjarnan 1 1401 20.51% @ Keflavik IF 0 1491 56.30%
23 1996-08-01 13.85 @ IF Leiftur 2 1448 18.44% KR Reykjavik 1 1673 59.31%
24 1996-09-29 13.74 Grindavik 1 1407 21.68% @ IF Leiftur 0 1484 54.69%
25 1996-09-21 13.34 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1480 17.70% IA Akranes 2 1715 60.43%