1958 Úrvalsdeild Season

15 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

9 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

3.79 points above expected

9 points · 5.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

3.00 points below expected

2 points · 5.00 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	IA Akranes	5	4	1	0	9	23	9	+14	5.2	+3.79
2	KR Reykjavik	5	3	2	0	8	12	3	+9	5.1	+2.89
3	Valur Reykjavik	5	3	0	2	6	10	12	-2	5.1	+0.94
4	Keflavik IF	5	0	3	2	3	6	11	-5	4.8	-1.78
5	Fram Reykjavik	5	0	2	3	2	8	12	-4	5.0	-3.00
6	IB Hafnarfjordur	5	0	2	3	2	7	19	-12	4.8	-2.84

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
IA Akranes	1235	9	5.21	+3.79	99.8%	3	4	5	6	8	10
KR Reykjavik	1225	8	5.11	+2.89	98.6%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Valur Reykjavik	1217	6	5.06	+0.94	81.1%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Fram Reykjavik	1213	2	5.00	-3.00	6.0%	2	4	5	6	8	10
Keflavik IF	1199	3	4.78	-1.78	22.1%	2	4	5	6	7	10
IB Hafnarfjordur	1196	2	4.84	-2.84	7.4%	2	4	5	6	8	10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FR	IA	IH	KR	KI	VR
Fram Reykjavik	—	0-0-1 1.19	0-1-0 1.33	0-0-1 1.28	0-1-0 1.33	0-0-1 1.27
IA Akranes	1-0-0 1.35	—	1-0-0 1.32	0-1-0 1.31	1-0-0 1.38	1-0-0 1.28
IB Hafnarfjordur	0-1-0 1.21	0-0-1 1.21	—	0-0-1 1.22	0-1-0 1.25	0-0-1 1.21
KR Reykjavik	1-0-0 1.25	0-1-0 1.23	1-0-0 1.32	—	0-1-0 1.38	1-0-0 1.29
Keflavik IF	0-1-0 1.21	0-0-1 1.17	0-1-0 1.28	0-1-0 1.17	—	0-0-1 1.20
Valur Reykjavik	1-0-0 1.26	0-0-1 1.25	1-0-0 1.32	0-0-1 1.23	1-0-0 1.33	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	10.00%	—	—	—	3.33%	13.33%
1	10.00%	13.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	6.67%	36.67%
2	—	3.33%	20.00%	—	—	—	23.33%
3	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%	3.33%
5+	3.33%	6.67%	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	16.67%
Total	13.33%	36.67%	23.33%	6.67%	3.33%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.20
Mean allowed	2.20
StdDev scored	2.06
StdDev allowed	2.06
Mean total goals/game	4.40
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.351
Sample size (games)	15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	40.00%	—	—	—	—	40.00%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	—	40.00%	—	—	—	40.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	40.00%	40.00%	—	—	20.00%	100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.60
Mean allowed	2.40
StdDev scored	1.67
StdDev allowed	2.07
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.922
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	—	20.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	40.00%	—	—	20.00%	—	60.00%
Total	—	60.00%	20.00%	—	20.00%	—	100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.60
Mean allowed	1.80
StdDev scored	2.07
StdDev allowed	1.30
Mean total goals/game	6.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.148
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%
1	—	20.00%	—	20.00%	—	—	40.00%
2	—	—	20.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%	20.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	20.00%	20.00%	20.00%	—	40.00%	100%

IB Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.40
Mean allowed	3.80
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	2.59
Mean total goals/game	5.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.051
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	40.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	—	60.00%
2	—	—	20.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	20.00%	—	—	—	—	—	20.00%
Total	60.00%	20.00%	20.00%	—	—	—	100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.40
Mean allowed	0.60
StdDev scored	2.61
StdDev allowed	0.89
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.236
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	40.00%	20.00%	—	—	20.00%	80.00%
2	—	—	20.00%	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	40.00%	40.00%	—	—	20.00%	100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.20
Mean allowed	2.20
StdDev scored	0.45
StdDev allowed	1.64
Mean total goals/game	3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.068
Games played	5

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
1	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%	40.00%
2	—	20.00%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	20.00%	—	—	20.00%
Total	20.00%	40.00%	—	20.00%	—	20.00%	100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	2.40
StdDev scored	2.35
StdDev allowed	2.79
Mean total goals/game	4.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.115
Games played	5

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	IA Akranes	9	5.2	+3.79
2	KR Reykjavik	8	5.1	+2.89
3	Valur Reykjavik	6	5.1	+0.94
4	Keflavik IF	3	4.8	-1.78
5	IB Hafnarfjordur	2	4.8	-2.84

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Fram Reykjavik	2	5.0	-3.00
2	IB Hafnarfjordur	2	4.8	-2.84
3	Keflavik IF	3	4.8	-1.78
4	Valur Reykjavik	6	5.1	+0.94
5	KR Reykjavik	8	5.1	+2.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	3	Jul 6 – Aug 20	1 in 50
2	IA Akranes	3	Jul 3 – Aug 31	1 in 41
3	Valur Reykjavik	1	Jun 23 – Jun 23	1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fram Reykjavik	2	Jul 6 – Aug 17	1 in 15
2	IB Hafnarfjordur	2	Jun 19 – Jun 23	1 in 12
3	Valur Reykjavik	1	Jul 3 – Jul 3	1 in 4
4	Keflavik IF	1	Jul 4 – Jul 4	1 in 3

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	5	Jun 29 – Aug 29	1 in 4
2	IA Akranes	5	Jun 19 – Aug 31	1 in 4
3	Keflavik IF	2	Aug 19 – Aug 21	53%
4	IB Hafnarfjordur	1	Jul 1 – Jul 1	71%
5	Valur Reykjavik	1	Jun 23 – Jun 23	75%

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fram Reykjavik	5	Jul 1 – Aug 31	1 in 5
2	IB Hafnarfjordur	5	Jun 19 – Aug 19	1 in 4
3	Keflavik IF	5	Jul 4 – Aug 29	1 in 4
4	IA Akranes	1	Jun 29 – Jun 29	72%
5	Valur Reykjavik	1	Jul 3 – Jul 3	74%

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
IA Akranes	25.23%	19.46%	17.48%	14.75%	13.08%	10.00%
KR Reykjavik	21.64%	19.35%	18.32%	14.86%	14.15%	11.68%
Valur Reykjavik	16.55%	17.52%	16.68%	17.82%	15.90%	15.53%
Keflavik IF	11.31%	14.18%	15.58%	18.10%	18.87%	21.96%
Fram Reykjavik	14.65%	15.79%	16.62%	17.83%	17.96%	17.15%
IB Hafnarfjordur	10.62%	13.70%	15.32%	16.64%	20.04%	23.68%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
IA Akranes	90.0%	10.0%
KR Reykjavik	88.3%	11.7%
Valur Reykjavik	84.5%	15.5%
Fram Reykjavik	82.8%	17.2%
Keflavik IF	78.0%	22.0%
IB Hafnarfjordur	76.3%	23.7%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1958-06-19	IB Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	1222	1208	28.5%	46.7%	24.8%	+2.1	3
1958-06-19	@ IA Akranes	L 1-3	1208	1222	24.8%	46.7%	28.5%	-2.1	0
1958-06-23	IB Hafnarfjordur	W 6-3	1219	1206	28.4%	46.8%	24.9%	+2.4	3
1958-06-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 3-6	1206	1219	24.9%	46.8%	28.4%	-2.4	0
1958-06-29	IA Akranes	D 2-2	1214	1224	25.2%	46.9%	27.9%	+0.0	1
1958-06-29	@ KR Reykjavik	D 2-2	1224	1214	27.9%	46.9%	25.2%	-0.0	4
1958-07-01	IB Hafnarfjordur	D 2-2	1218	1204	28.6%	46.7%	24.7%	-0.0	1
1958-07-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1204	1218	24.7%	46.7%	28.6%	+0.0	1
1958-07-03	Valur Reykjavik	W 7-1	1224	1221	26.8%	47.1%	26.0%	+5.7	7
1958-07-03	@ IA Akranes	L 1-7	1221	1224	26.0%	47.1%	26.8%	-5.7	3
1958-07-04	Keflavik IF	W 5-1	1229	1204	30.8%	45.5%	23.8%	+3.7	10
1958-07-04	@ IA Akranes	L 1-5	1204	1229	23.8%	45.5%	30.8%	-3.7	0
1958-07-06	Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1214	1218	26.0%	47.1%	26.9%	+1.3	4
1958-07-06	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1218	1214	26.9%	47.1%	26.0%	-1.3	1
1958-08-08	IB Hafnarfjordur	W 7-0	1216	1204	28.3%	46.8%	24.9%	+7.8	7
1958-08-08	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-7	1204	1216	24.9%	46.8%	28.3%	-7.8	1
1958-08-17	Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1215	1216	26.3%	47.1%	26.6%	+1.3	6
1958-08-17	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1216	1215	26.6%	47.1%	26.3%	-1.3	1
1958-08-19	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1196	1201	25.8%	47.1%	27.1%	+0.0	2
1958-08-19	@ IB Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	1201	1196	27.1%	47.1%	25.8%	-0.0	1
1958-08-20	Valur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1224	1217	27.5%	47.0%	25.5%	+1.3	10
1958-08-20	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1217	1224	25.5%	47.0%	27.5%	-1.3	6
1958-08-21	Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1215	1201	28.7%	46.6%	24.6%	-0.0	2
1958-08-21	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1201	1215	24.6%	46.6%	28.7%	+0.0	2
1958-08-24	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1215	1201	28.8%	46.6%	24.6%	+1.2	9
1958-08-24	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1201	1215	24.6%	46.6%	28.8%	-1.2	2
1958-08-29	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1225	1199	30.8%	45.4%	23.7%	-0.0	11
1958-08-29	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1199	1225	23.7%	45.4%	30.8%	+0.1	3
1958-08-31	Fram Reykjavik	W 6-4	1233	1215	29.4%	46.3%	24.3%	+1.7	13
1958-08-31	@ IA Akranes	L 4-6	1215	1233	24.3%	46.3%	29.4%	-1.7	2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1958-07-06	25.97%	@ KR Reykjavik	1214	1	Fram Reykjavik	1218	0
2	1958-08-17	26.26%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1215	1	Fram Reykjavik	1216	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1958-08-08	7.82	@ KR Reykjavik	7	1216	28.29%	IB Hafnarfjordur	0	1204	24.93%
2	1958-07-03	5.72	@ IA Akranes	7	1224	26.83%	Valur Reykjavik	1	1221	26.04%
3	1958-07-04	3.69	@ IA Akranes	5	1229	30.77%	Keflavik IF	1	1204	23.75%
4	1958-06-23	2.38	@ Valur Reykjavik	6	1219	28.37%	IB Hafnarfjordur	3	1206	24.88%
5	1958-06-19	2.10	@ IA Akranes	3	1222	28.53%	IB Hafnarfjordur	1	1208	24.78%
6	1958-08-31	1.69	@ IA Akranes	6	1233	29.41%	Fram Reykjavik	4	1215	24.31%
7	1958-07-06	1.35	@ KR Reykjavik	1	1214	25.97%	Fram Reykjavik	0	1218	26.90%
8	1958-08-17	1.34	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1215	26.26%	Fram Reykjavik	0	1216	26.58%
9	1958-08-20	1.31	@ KR Reykjavik	1	1224	27.49%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1217	25.49%
10	1958-08-24	1.21	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1215	28.80%	Keflavik IF	1	1201	24.63%
11	1958-08-29	0.05	Keflavik IF	1	1199	23.73%	@ KR Reykjavik	1	1225	30.84%
12	1958-07-01	0.02	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	1218	28.63%	IB Hafnarfjordur	2	1204	24.72%
13	1958-08-21	0.02	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	1215	28.75%	Keflavik IF	2	1201	24.65%
14	1958-06-29	0.01	@ KR Reykjavik	2	1214	25.22%	IA Akranes	2	1224	27.86%
15	1958-08-19	0.01	@ IB Hafnarfjordur	1	1196	25.82%	Keflavik IF	1	1201	27.08%