2021 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

Fram Reykjavik

58 pts

IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 47 pts

Relegated

Vikingur Olafsvik

8 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

12.36 points above expected

58 points · 45.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

8.63 points below expected

14 points · 22.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Promoted 22 18 4 0 58 58 17 +41 45.64 +12.36
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Promoted 22 15 2 5 47 43 22 +21 38.26 +8.74
3 Fjolnir 22 13 3 6 42 38 21 +17 33.80 +8.20
4 Kordrengir 22 11 6 5 39 39 28 +11 37.71 +1.29
5 IF Vestri 22 11 3 8 36 38 39 -1 29.50 +6.50
6 Grotta 22 11 2 9 35 52 40 +12 32.50 +2.50
7 Grindavik 22 7 5 10 26 38 45 -7 32.01 -6.01
8 Selfoss 22 7 3 12 24 35 44 -9 24.09 -0.09
9 Thor Akureyri 22 6 5 11 23 33 37 -4 30.25 -7.25
10 Afturelding 22 6 5 11 23 37 54 -17 27.67 -4.67
11 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 22 4 2 16 14 39 53 -14 22.63 -8.63
12 Vikingur Olafsvik Relegated 22 2 2 18 8 28 78 -50 15.39 -7.39

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1242 58 45.64 +12.36 99.2% 22 36 42 46 49 55 64
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1143 47 38.26 +8.74 94.4% 16 28 34 38 42 48 62
Fjolnir 1111 42 33.80 +8.20 92.2% 12 24 30 34 38 44 54
Kordrengir 1061 39 37.71 +1.29 61.3% 14 28 34 38 42 47 57
Grotta 1050 35 32.50 +2.50 69.6% 14 23 29 32 36 42 54
IF Vestri 985 36 29.50 +6.50 88.0% 10 20 26 29 34 39 51
Grindavik 909 26 32.01 -6.01 18.1% 11 22 28 32 36 42 56
Selfoss 899 24 24.09 -0.09 53.4% 5 15 20 24 28 34 45
Thor Akureyri 897 23 30.25 -7.25 13.3% 9 21 26 30 34 40 53
Throttur Reykjavik 837 14 22.63 -8.63 7.4% 2 13 19 22 26 32 50
Afturelding 818 23 27.67 -4.67 24.5% 7 18 24 28 32 38 54
Vikingur Olafsvik 670 8 15.39 -7.39 7.4% 1 8 12 15 19 24 39

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AFT FJO FR GRI GRO IV IV KOR SEL TA TR VO
Afturelding
0-1-1
2.32
0-0-2
1.06
0-1-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.16
0-0-2
2.60
0-1-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.31
2-0-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.74
Fjolnir
1-1-0
3.26
0-0-2
1.98
2-0-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
2.15
2-0-0
3.79
0-1-1
3.49
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
4.36
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
4.58
2-0-0
3.63
1-1-0
4.33
2-0-0
4.11
1-1-0
3.47
2-0-0
4.23
1-1-0
3.87
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
4.74
2-0-0
4.53
Grindavik
1-1-0
3.13
0-0-2
2.78
0-1-1
1.29
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
2.91
0-1-1
2.02
1-0-1
3.52
0-1-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.52
0-1-1
4.69
Grotta
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
1.50
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.29
1-1-0
3.68
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
3.70
2-0-0
4.70
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.19
0-1-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
3.73
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
3.82
2-0-0
4.27
2-0-0
4.61
IF Vestri
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-2
1.37
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
1.87
0-1-1
2.12
1-0-1
3.15
1-1-0
2.65
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.93
Kordrengir
1-1-0
3.54
0-1-1
3.44
0-1-1
1.72
1-1-0
3.57
1-0-1
3.29
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
3.47
1-0-1
4.00
2-0-0
3.59
2-0-0
3.96
2-0-0
4.33
Selfoss
1-1-0
2.32
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.13
1-0-1
2.07
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-2
1.32
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
1.60
1-1-0
2.29
0-0-2
3.29
2-0-0
3.86
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
2.10
0-0-2
1.95
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
1.78
0-1-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.00
0-1-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.25
0-1-1
4.16
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.47
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
0.90
0-0-2
2.07
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
1.63
2-0-0
2.30
0-0-2
2.34
2-0-0
3.54
Vikingur Olafsvik
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
1.12
1-1-0
0.95
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
1.73
1-1-0
1.46
0-0-2
2.06

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.58 +13.4
Allowed 0.84 -7.6
Differential 0.90 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%4.92%5.30%3.79%1.14%1.89%18.56%
14.92%3.79%10.23%4.17%1.89%1.89%26.89%
25.30%10.23%7.58%3.41%1.14%0.38%28.03%
33.79%4.17%3.41%3.03%1.14%0.76%16.29%
41.14%1.89%1.14%1.14%5.30%
5+1.89%1.89%0.38%0.76%4.92%
Total18.56%26.89%28.03%16.29%5.30%4.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.81 +0.00
SD 1.44 1.44 2.26
CV 0.80 0.80
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
14.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
4
5+9.09%9.09%
Total4.55%27.27%31.82%22.73%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.45 -0.77
SD 1.64 1.84 2.99
CV 0.98 0.75
Max 6 8 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%9.09%18.18%
24.55%22.73%4.55%31.82%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%45.45%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.95 +0.77
SD 1.67 0.84 2.07
CV 0.97 0.88
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
113.64%4.55%18.18%
222.73%9.09%13.64%45.45%
34.55%4.55%
49.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total50.00%27.27%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 0.77 +1.86
SD 1.40 0.92 1.46
CV 0.53 1.19
Max 6 3 +5
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
14.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%36.36%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
313.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
4
5+
Total4.55%22.73%50.00%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.05 -0.32
SD 0.98 1.05 1.52
CV 0.57 0.51
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
14.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
222.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.82 +0.55
SD 1.84 1.22 2.28
CV 0.78 0.67
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
118.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%36.36%
213.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%13.64%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total40.91%22.73%31.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.00 +0.95
SD 1.33 0.98 1.73
CV 0.68 0.98
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%13.64%
24.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%36.36%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%36.36%22.73%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.77 -0.05
SD 1.20 1.31 2.08
CV 0.70 0.74
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%18.18%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total31.82%36.36%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.27 +0.50
SD 1.02 1.28 1.60
CV 0.58 1.01
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
14.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%27.27%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%18.18%31.82%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 2.00 -0.41
SD 1.40 1.20 1.94
CV 0.88 0.60
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%22.73%36.36%
19.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%50.00%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.68 -0.18
SD 1.57 0.99 1.87
CV 1.04 0.59
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
118.18%22.73%9.09%50.00%
29.09%13.64%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total9.09%9.09%31.82%40.91%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 2.41 -0.64
SD 1.60 1.26 2.50
CV 0.90 0.52
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%36.36%
14.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total4.55%27.27%27.27%9.09%31.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 3.55 -2.27
SD 1.20 1.79 2.31
CV 0.94 0.51
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 58 45.64 +12.36
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 47 38.26 +8.74
3 Fjolnir 42 33.80 +8.20
4 IF Vestri 36 29.50 +6.50
5 Grotta 35 32.50 +2.50

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 14 22.63 -8.63
2 Vikingur Olafsvik 8 15.39 -7.39
3 Thor Akureyri 23 30.25 -7.25
4 Grindavik 26 32.01 -6.01
5 Afturelding 23 27.67 -4.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 May 6 – Jun 27 1 in 123
2 Fjolnir 4 Sep 4 – Sep 18 1 in 33
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 23 – Sep 3 1 in 29
4 Grindavik 4 May 30 – Jun 18 1 in 28
5 Grotta 4 Aug 5 – Aug 24 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 4 Jul 27 – Aug 24 1 in 123
2 Grindavik 4 Jul 23 – Aug 13 1 in 51
3 Grotta 4 Jun 10 – Jul 1 1 in 20
4 IF Vestri 3 May 22 – Jun 5 1 in 14
5 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jul 5 – Jul 22 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 22 May 6 – Sep 18 1 in 93
2 Grindavik 9 May 30 – Jul 16 1 in 78
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 May 21 – Jul 5 1 in 18
4 Fjolnir 7 Aug 14 – Sep 18 1 in 16
5 Kordrengir 7 May 21 – Jul 1 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 9 Jun 25 – Aug 13 1 in 182
2 Thor Akureyri 8 Jul 27 – Sep 11 1 in 61
3 Vikingur Olafsvik 14 May 6 – Aug 10 1 in 30
4 Grotta 6 May 28 – Jul 1 1 in 24
5 Afturelding 5 May 21 – Jun 18 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Fram Reykjavik66.50%18.76%8.41%3.45%1.58%0.69%0.38%0.13%0.09%0.01%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar12.64%26.16%20.40%14.26%9.96%6.76%4.67%2.63%1.62%0.69%0.19%0.02%
Fjolnir3.95%10.97%14.09%14.90%13.98%12.49%10.39%8.33%5.83%3.22%1.46%0.39%
Kordrengir10.66%21.84%20.02%15.35%12.06%7.81%5.29%3.53%1.87%1.04%0.46%0.07%
IF Vestri0.77%2.75%5.59%8.48%10.63%12.38%14.02%14.19%13.36%9.96%6.34%1.53%
Grotta2.25%7.11%10.73%13.98%14.31%14.14%12.65%10.11%7.30%4.85%2.19%0.38%
Grindavik1.75%6.19%9.38%12.23%13.09%14.11%12.34%11.51%9.84%6.26%2.78%0.52%
Selfoss0.08%0.43%0.80%1.96%3.51%5.16%8.46%11.66%15.83%21.87%21.74%8.50%
Thor Akureyri1.07%4.02%6.58%8.87%11.50%12.74%13.76%13.55%12.16%9.57%5.08%1.10%
Afturelding0.29%1.58%3.44%5.25%7.24%9.83%11.71%14.56%16.32%15.02%11.55%3.21%
Throttur Reykjavik0.04%0.18%0.56%1.23%2.07%3.76%5.91%8.84%13.28%21.12%30.51%12.50%
Vikingur Olafsvik0.01%0.04%0.07%0.13%0.42%0.96%2.50%6.39%17.70%71.78%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.33%
Slight Edge
46.21%15.91%37.88%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.
157 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.09 goals
Neutral
-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Fram Reykjavik, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Comfortable
00.250.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.64 * Some Luck: 4.64 to 6.97 * Lucky: 6.97 to 9.29 * Wild Swing: 9.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.36 * Close: 1.36 to 2.04 * Off: 2.04 to 2.72 * Way Off: 2.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.68 * A Surprise: 0.68 to 1.08 * Several Surprises: 1.08 to 1.49 * Many Surprises: 1.49 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.97 points
Lucky
05.8115
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.704
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.20%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.41%
Throttur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.02
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
75%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.50
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.29
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.39
Very Underconfident
0.4927421.001.50726
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1410.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 85.26% 14.74%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 38.80% 60.99% 0.21%
Kordrengir 32.50% 66.97% 0.53%
Fjolnir 14.92% 83.23% 1.85%
Grotta 9.36% 88.07% 2.57%
Grindavik 7.94% 88.76% 3.30%
Thor Akureyri 5.09% 88.73% 6.18%
IF Vestri 3.52% 88.61% 7.87%
Afturelding 1.87% 83.37% 14.76%
Selfoss 0.51% 69.25% 30.24%
Throttur Reykjavik 0.22% 56.77% 43.01%
Vikingur Olafsvik 0.01% 10.51% 89.48%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2021-05-06 Fjolnir L 1-3 885 975 34.4% 20.8% 44.8% -21.0 0
2021-05-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 975 885 44.8% 20.8% 34.4% +21.1 3
2021-05-06 Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-2 1018 923 58.3% 20.2% 21.4% +12.6 3
2021-05-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-4 923 1018 21.4% 20.2% 58.3% -12.6 0
2021-05-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 998 975 50.0% 20.7% 29.3% +18.5 3
2021-05-07 @ Grindavik L 1-3 975 998 29.3% 20.7% 50.0% -18.5 0
2021-05-07 Thor Akureyri W 4-3 952 959 45.9% 20.8% 33.2% +11.0 3
2021-05-07 @ Grotta L 3-4 959 952 33.2% 20.8% 45.9% -11.0 0
2021-05-08 IF Vestri L 0-3 947 968 44.0% 20.9% 35.2% -43.1 0
2021-05-08 @ Selfoss W 3-0 968 947 35.2% 20.9% 44.0% +43.1 3
2021-05-08 Kordrengir D 1-1 974 1045 37.0% 20.9% 42.1% +0.4 1
2021-05-08 @ Afturelding D 1-1 1045 974 42.1% 20.9% 37.0% -0.4 1
2021-05-13 Grindavik W 4-1 948 1017 37.4% 20.9% 41.8% +34.8 3
2021-05-13 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-4 1017 948 41.8% 20.9% 37.4% -34.8 3
2021-05-14 Afturelding L 1-5 911 975 38.0% 20.9% 41.1% -41.7 0
2021-05-14 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-1 975 911 41.1% 20.9% 38.0% +41.7 4
2021-05-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 957 1031 36.5% 20.9% 42.6% -25.5 0
2021-05-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1031 957 42.6% 20.9% 36.5% +25.6 6
2021-05-14 Grotta W 1-0 997 963 51.3% 20.7% 28.0% +10.9 6
2021-05-14 @ Fjolnir L 0-1 963 997 28.0% 20.7% 51.3% -10.9 3
2021-05-14 Selfoss L 1-3 1045 904 62.9% 19.8% 17.3% -35.5 1
2021-05-14 @ Kordrengir W 3-1 904 1045 17.3% 19.8% 62.9% +35.5 3
2021-05-15 IF Vestri L 1-3 864 1012 27.2% 20.6% 52.2% -17.3 0
2021-05-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1012 864 52.2% 20.6% 27.2% +17.3 6
2021-05-21 Fjolnir L 0-2 982 1007 43.5% 20.9% 35.7% -29.4 3
2021-05-21 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1007 982 35.7% 20.9% 43.5% +29.4 9
2021-05-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-5 1016 931 57.3% 20.3% 22.4% -87.7 4
2021-05-21 @ Afturelding W 5-0 931 1016 22.4% 20.3% 57.3% +87.7 3
2021-05-21 Kordrengir L 1-3 869 1009 28.0% 20.7% 51.3% -17.8 0
2021-05-21 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-1 1009 869 51.3% 20.7% 28.0% +17.8 4
2021-05-21 Selfoss W 3-1 847 939 34.1% 20.8% 45.1% +26.2 3
2021-05-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 939 847 45.1% 20.8% 34.1% -26.2 3
2021-05-21 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1056 983 56.0% 20.4% 23.6% +21.7 9
2021-05-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 983 1056 23.6% 20.4% 56.0% -21.7 3
2021-05-22 IF Vestri W 5-0 952 1029 36.2% 20.9% 43.0% +68.0 6
2021-05-22 @ Grotta L 0-5 1029 952 43.0% 20.9% 36.2% -68.0 6
2021-05-28 Afturelding W 2-1 961 929 51.2% 20.7% 28.2% +10.3 6
2021-05-28 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 929 961 28.2% 20.7% 51.2% -10.3 4
2021-05-28 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1037 1078 41.2% 20.9% 37.9% -14.9 9
2021-05-28 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1078 1037 37.9% 20.9% 41.2% +14.9 12
2021-05-28 Grotta D 3-3 913 1020 32.1% 20.8% 47.0% +0.7 4
2021-05-28 @ Selfoss D 3-3 1020 913 47.0% 20.8% 32.1% -0.7 7
2021-05-29 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1027 873 64.1% 19.7% 16.3% +6.3 7
2021-05-29 @ Kordrengir L 1-2 873 1027 16.3% 19.7% 64.1% -6.3 3
2021-05-30 Grindavik L 2-3 961 953 48.0% 20.8% 31.2% -15.2 6
2021-05-30 @ IF Vestri W 3-2 953 961 31.2% 20.8% 48.0% +15.2 6
2021-05-30 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1019 851 65.2% 19.5% 15.3% +12.0 6
2021-05-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 851 1019 15.3% 19.5% 65.2% -11.9 0
2021-06-03 Fjolnir D 2-2 918 1022 32.6% 20.8% 46.6% +0.8 5
2021-06-03 @ Afturelding D 2-2 1022 918 46.6% 20.8% 32.6% -0.8 10
2021-06-03 Selfoss W 1-0 968 914 53.8% 20.5% 25.7% +10.1 9
2021-06-03 @ Grindavik L 0-1 914 968 25.7% 20.5% 53.8% -10.1 4
2021-06-03 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1019 867 63.9% 19.7% 16.4% -2.9 8
2021-06-03 @ Grotta D 2-2 867 1019 16.4% 19.7% 63.9% +3.0 4
2021-06-04 Kordrengir D 2-2 1031 1033 46.6% 20.8% 32.6% -0.8 7
2021-06-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1033 1031 32.6% 20.8% 46.6% +0.8 8
2021-06-05 IF Vestri W 4-0 1093 946 63.5% 19.7% 16.8% +24.8 15
2021-06-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 946 1093 16.8% 19.7% 63.5% -24.8 6
2021-06-05 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 839 972 29.0% 20.7% 50.3% +1.2 1
2021-06-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-2 972 839 50.3% 20.7% 29.0% -1.2 7
2021-06-10 Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 904 1118 20.2% 20.1% 59.7% -29.3 4
2021-06-10 @ Selfoss W 4-0 1118 904 59.7% 20.1% 20.2% +29.3 18
2021-06-10 Grindavik L 2-3 870 978 32.0% 20.8% 47.2% -10.9 4
2021-06-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 978 870 47.2% 20.8% 32.0% +10.9 12
2021-06-10 Grotta W 2-1 1034 1016 49.3% 20.7% 30.0% +10.9 11
2021-06-10 @ Kordrengir L 1-2 1016 1034 30.0% 20.7% 49.3% -10.9 8
2021-06-10 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1021 841 66.3% 19.3% 14.3% +5.6 13
2021-06-10 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 841 1021 14.3% 19.3% 66.3% -5.6 1
2021-06-12 Afturelding W 2-1 921 919 47.2% 20.8% 32.0% +11.5 9
2021-06-12 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 919 921 32.0% 20.8% 47.2% -11.5 5
2021-06-14 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1030 970 54.4% 20.5% 25.1% +9.4 10
2021-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 970 1030 25.1% 20.5% 54.4% -9.4 7
2021-06-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1147 859 73.8% 17.8% 8.5% +10.6 21
2021-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-5 859 1147 8.5% 17.8% 73.8% -10.6 4
2021-06-18 Fjolnir W 1-0 1039 1027 48.6% 20.8% 30.7% +11.7 13
2021-06-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1027 1039 30.7% 20.8% 48.6% -11.7 13
2021-06-18 Grotta W 3-1 989 1005 44.7% 20.8% 34.5% +21.1 15
2021-06-18 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1005 989 34.5% 20.8% 44.7% -21.1 8
2021-06-18 Kordrengir L 0-1 961 1045 35.2% 20.9% 43.9% -13.2 7
2021-06-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1045 961 43.9% 20.9% 35.2% +13.1 14
2021-06-18 Selfoss D 3-3 908 874 51.2% 20.7% 28.1% -1.1 6
2021-06-18 @ Afturelding D 3-3 874 908 28.1% 20.7% 51.2% +1.1 5
2021-06-19 IF Vestri L 0-3 835 932 33.4% 20.8% 45.8% -34.5 1
2021-06-19 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 932 835 45.8% 20.8% 33.4% +34.5 12
2021-06-25 Grindavik D 1-1 1058 1010 53.1% 20.6% 26.4% -2.1 15
2021-06-25 @ Kordrengir D 1-1 1010 1058 26.4% 20.6% 53.1% +2.1 16
2021-06-26 Afturelding L 1-3 848 907 38.8% 20.9% 40.3% -23.2 4
2021-06-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 907 848 40.3% 20.9% 38.8% +23.2 9
2021-06-26 Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1015 948 55.3% 20.5% 24.3% -52.7 13
2021-06-26 @ Fjolnir W 3-0 948 1015 24.3% 20.5% 55.3% +52.7 10
2021-06-26 Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-3 875 801 56.1% 20.4% 23.4% +12.9 8
2021-06-26 @ Selfoss L 3-5 801 875 23.4% 20.4% 56.1% -12.9 1
2021-06-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 984 1158 24.2% 20.5% 55.3% -9.6 8
2021-06-27 @ Grotta W 1-0 1158 984 55.3% 20.5% 24.2% +9.6 24
2021-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 967 1051 35.2% 20.9% 43.9% -36.0 12
2021-06-27 @ IF Vestri W 3-0 1051 967 43.9% 20.9% 35.2% +36.0 16
2021-07-01 Grindavik D 2-2 1167 1012 64.2% 19.6% 16.2% -3.0 25
2021-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1012 1167 16.2% 19.6% 64.2% +3.0 17
2021-07-01 Grotta W 2-1 930 975 40.7% 20.9% 38.4% +13.3 12
2021-07-01 @ Afturelding L 1-2 975 930 38.4% 20.9% 40.7% -13.3 8
2021-07-01 IF Vestri D 1-1 1001 931 55.6% 20.4% 24.0% -2.5 11
2021-07-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 931 1001 24.0% 20.4% 55.6% +2.5 13
2021-07-01 Kordrengir D 0-0 962 1056 33.9% 20.8% 45.3% +1.0 14
2021-07-01 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1056 962 45.3% 20.8% 33.9% -1.0 16
2021-07-01 Selfoss W 3-2 1087 888 67.8% 19.1% 13.1% +4.9 19
2021-07-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 888 1087 13.1% 19.1% 67.8% -4.9 8
2021-07-01 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-7 788 825 41.8% 20.9% 37.3% -91.5 1
2021-07-01 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 7-0 825 788 37.3% 20.9% 41.8% +91.4 7
2021-07-04 Fjolnir W 2-1 933 963 42.9% 20.9% 36.3% +12.7 16
2021-07-04 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 963 933 36.3% 20.9% 42.9% -12.7 14
2021-07-05 Afturelding D 3-3 1015 943 55.8% 20.4% 23.8% -1.6 18
2021-07-05 @ Grindavik D 3-3 943 1015 23.8% 20.4% 55.8% +1.6 13
2021-07-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 916 1092 24.0% 20.4% 55.5% -9.5 7
2021-07-05 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1092 916 55.5% 20.4% 24.0% +9.6 22
2021-07-05 Kordrengir W 4-3 1164 1055 59.8% 20.1% 20.1% +7.1 28
2021-07-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 3-4 1055 1164 20.1% 20.1% 59.8% -7.1 16
2021-07-05 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 883 998 31.1% 20.8% 48.1% +1.3 9
2021-07-05 @ Selfoss D 1-1 998 883 48.1% 20.8% 31.1% -1.3 12
2021-07-05 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-2 961 696 72.4% 18.1% 9.5% +3.6 11
2021-07-05 @ Grotta L 2-3 696 961 9.5% 18.1% 72.4% -3.6 1
2021-07-09 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 945 1171 19.0% 20.0% 61.0% -14.6 13
2021-07-09 @ Afturelding W 2-0 1171 945 61.0% 20.0% 19.0% +14.6 31
2021-07-09 Grindavik D 2-2 693 1013 12.2% 18.9% 69.0% +3.6 2
2021-07-09 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-2 1013 693 69.0% 18.9% 12.2% -3.6 19
2021-07-09 Grotta L 0-1 1101 965 62.5% 19.9% 17.7% -21.6 22
2021-07-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 965 1101 17.7% 19.9% 62.5% +21.6 14
2021-07-09 Selfoss W 2-1 951 885 55.1% 20.5% 24.4% +9.1 17
2021-07-09 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 885 951 24.4% 20.5% 55.1% -9.1 9
2021-07-09 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 997 907 57.8% 20.3% 21.9% +26.3 15
2021-07-09 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-5 907 997 21.9% 20.3% 57.8% -26.3 7
2021-07-10 IF Vestri W 2-0 1048 946 59.1% 20.2% 20.8% +15.8 19
2021-07-10 @ Kordrengir L 0-2 946 1048 20.8% 20.2% 59.1% -15.8 16
2021-07-15 Fjolnir W 2-1 986 960 50.4% 20.7% 28.9% +10.5 17
2021-07-15 @ Grotta L 1-2 960 986 28.9% 20.7% 50.4% -10.5 17
2021-07-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1186 1080 59.5% 20.1% 20.3% -3.2 32
2021-07-15 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1080 1186 20.3% 20.1% 59.5% +3.2 23
2021-07-15 Kordrengir L 0-1 876 1064 22.7% 20.3% 57.0% -9.1 9
2021-07-15 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1064 876 57.0% 20.3% 22.7% +9.1 22
2021-07-15 Vikingur Olafsvik W 6-1 930 696 70.3% 18.6% 11.1% +17.0 16
2021-07-15 @ Afturelding L 1-6 696 930 11.1% 18.6% 70.3% -17.0 2
2021-07-16 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1010 1023 45.1% 20.8% 34.0% -0.6 20
2021-07-16 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1023 1010 34.0% 20.8% 45.1% +0.6 16
2021-07-17 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 930 881 53.2% 20.6% 26.2% +9.7 19
2021-07-17 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 881 930 26.2% 20.6% 53.2% -9.7 7
2021-07-22 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 949 871 56.5% 20.4% 23.1% +15.1 20
2021-07-22 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 871 949 23.1% 20.4% 56.5% -15.1 7
2021-07-23 Grindavik W 4-1 1083 1009 56.0% 20.4% 23.5% +21.7 26
2021-07-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1009 1083 23.5% 20.4% 56.0% -21.7 20
2021-07-23 Grotta W 4-2 1024 997 50.4% 20.7% 28.9% +16.3 19
2021-07-23 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-4 997 1024 28.9% 20.7% 50.4% -16.3 17
2021-07-24 Selfoss L 1-2 940 866 56.0% 20.4% 23.6% -18.4 19
2021-07-24 @ IF Vestri W 2-1 866 940 23.6% 20.4% 56.0% +18.4 12
2021-07-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1040 1183 27.7% 20.6% 51.7% -20.3 19
2021-07-27 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1183 1040 51.7% 20.6% 27.7% +20.3 35
2021-07-28 Grindavik W 2-1 964 987 43.8% 20.9% 35.4% +12.4 23
2021-07-28 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 987 964 35.4% 20.9% 43.8% -12.4 20
2021-07-28 Grotta W 4-3 922 981 38.7% 20.9% 40.4% +12.8 22
2021-07-28 @ IF Vestri L 3-4 981 922 40.4% 20.9% 38.7% -12.8 17
2021-07-29 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 885 856 50.7% 20.7% 28.6% -48.7 12
2021-07-29 @ Selfoss W 3-0 856 885 28.6% 20.7% 50.7% +48.7 10
2021-07-31 Afturelding W 2-0 1105 947 64.4% 19.6% 16.0% +12.5 29
2021-07-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 947 1105 16.0% 19.6% 64.4% -12.5 16
2021-08-05 Fjolnir W 2-0 1203 977 69.8% 18.7% 11.5% +9.1 38
2021-08-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 977 1203 11.5% 18.7% 69.8% -9.1 23
2021-08-05 Selfoss W 2-1 968 836 62.0% 19.9% 18.1% +7.0 20
2021-08-05 @ Grotta L 1-2 836 968 18.1% 19.9% 62.0% -7.0 12
2021-08-06 IF Vestri L 1-2 975 934 52.1% 20.6% 27.3% -17.2 20
2021-08-06 @ Grindavik W 2-1 934 975 27.3% 20.6% 52.1% +17.2 25
2021-08-06 Kordrengir L 0-3 905 1073 24.8% 20.5% 54.7% -26.9 10
2021-08-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1073 905 54.7% 20.5% 24.8% +26.9 25
2021-08-06 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 934 1020 35.0% 20.9% 44.1% +29.7 19
2021-08-06 @ Afturelding L 0-2 1020 934 44.1% 20.9% 35.0% -29.7 19
2021-08-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 679 1117 6.8% 17.0% 76.2% -5.4 2
2021-08-07 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1117 679 76.2% 17.0% 6.8% +5.4 32
2021-08-10 Afturelding W 2-1 1100 964 62.4% 19.9% 17.8% +6.9 28
2021-08-10 @ Kordrengir L 1-2 964 1100 17.8% 19.9% 62.4% -6.9 19
2021-08-10 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 674 1212 4.1% 15.2% 80.7% -4.6 2
2021-08-10 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 1212 674 80.7% 15.2% 4.1% +4.6 41
2021-08-13 Grindavik W 3-2 829 958 29.4% 20.7% 49.9% +15.7 15
2021-08-13 @ Selfoss L 2-3 958 829 49.9% 20.7% 29.4% -15.7 20
2021-08-13 Grotta L 1-2 878 975 33.4% 20.8% 45.7% -11.9 10
2021-08-13 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 975 878 45.7% 20.8% 33.4% +11.9 23
2021-08-14 Afturelding W 3-0 968 957 48.3% 20.8% 30.9% +32.4 26
2021-08-14 @ Fjolnir L 0-3 957 968 30.9% 20.8% 48.3% -32.4 19
2021-08-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 952 1217 15.9% 19.6% 64.5% -6.6 25
2021-08-14 @ IF Vestri W 1-0 1217 952 64.5% 19.6% 15.9% +6.6 44
2021-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1107 1122 44.8% 20.8% 34.4% -16.0 28
2021-08-14 @ Kordrengir W 1-0 1122 1107 34.4% 20.8% 44.8% +16.0 35
2021-08-14 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 990 669 75.6% 17.2% 7.2% -48.8 19
2021-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 669 990 7.2% 17.2% 75.6% +48.8 5
2021-08-19 Kordrengir W 2-1 987 1091 32.6% 20.8% 46.6% +15.6 26
2021-08-19 @ Grotta L 1-2 1091 987 46.6% 20.8% 32.6% -15.6 28
2021-08-19 Selfoss W 2-1 1223 845 78.4% 16.2% 5.4% +2.1 47
2021-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 845 1223 5.4% 16.2% 78.4% -2.1 15
2021-08-19 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 942 866 56.3% 20.4% 23.3% +8.8 23
2021-08-19 @ Grindavik L 1-2 866 942 23.3% 20.4% 56.3% -8.8 10
2021-08-20 Fjolnir L 0-7 718 1000 14.7% 19.4% 66.0% -37.0 5
2021-08-20 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 7-0 1000 718 66.0% 19.4% 14.7% +37.0 29
2021-08-24 Afturelding W 3-0 843 925 35.5% 20.9% 43.7% +42.8 18
2021-08-24 @ Selfoss L 0-3 925 843 43.7% 20.9% 35.5% -42.8 19
2021-08-24 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 857 1225 9.6% 18.2% 72.2% +4.0 11
2021-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1225 857 72.2% 18.2% 9.6% -4.0 48
2021-08-24 Grindavik W 2-1 1002 951 53.4% 20.6% 26.0% +9.6 29
2021-08-24 @ Grotta L 1-2 951 1002 26.0% 20.6% 53.4% -9.6 23
2021-08-24 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1075 941 62.2% 19.9% 17.9% +13.8 31
2021-08-24 @ Kordrengir L 0-2 941 1075 17.9% 19.9% 62.2% -13.8 19
2021-08-24 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-2 945 681 72.3% 18.1% 9.6% +3.6 28
2021-08-24 @ IF Vestri L 2-3 681 945 9.6% 18.1% 72.3% -3.6 5
2021-08-28 Fjolnir D 0-0 927 1037 31.8% 20.8% 47.4% +1.3 20
2021-08-28 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1037 927 47.4% 20.8% 31.8% -1.3 30
2021-08-28 Grotta W 2-1 1221 1012 68.6% 18.9% 12.5% +4.9 51
2021-08-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1012 1221 12.5% 18.9% 68.6% -4.9 29
2021-08-28 Kordrengir L 1-2 941 1089 27.1% 20.6% 52.2% -10.0 23
2021-08-28 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1089 941 52.2% 20.6% 27.1% +10.0 34
2021-08-28 Selfoss L 0-3 678 886 20.7% 20.2% 59.1% -23.0 5
2021-08-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 886 678 59.1% 20.2% 20.7% +23.0 21
2021-08-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 882 861 49.7% 20.7% 29.6% +18.6 22
2021-08-28 @ Afturelding L 1-3 861 882 29.6% 20.7% 49.7% -18.6 11
2021-08-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 929 1138 20.6% 20.2% 59.2% -8.3 20
2021-08-31 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1138 929 59.2% 20.2% 20.6% +8.3 38
2021-08-31 IF Vestri D 2-2 901 949 40.3% 20.9% 38.8% -0.1 23
2021-08-31 @ Afturelding D 2-2 949 901 38.8% 20.9% 40.3% +0.1 29
2021-08-31 Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-0 1099 655 81.2% 14.9% 3.9% +5.6 37
2021-08-31 @ Kordrengir L 0-4 655 1099 3.9% 14.9% 81.2% -5.6 5
2021-09-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 909 1147 18.0% 19.9% 62.1% -17.1 21
2021-09-03 @ Selfoss W 4-1 1147 909 62.1% 19.9% 18.0% +17.1 41
2021-09-04 Fjolnir L 1-4 1104 1036 55.5% 20.4% 24.1% -44.6 37
2021-09-04 @ Kordrengir W 4-1 1036 1104 24.1% 20.4% 55.5% +44.6 33
2021-09-04 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 931 1226 13.8% 19.2% 67.0% -10.8 23
2021-09-04 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1226 931 67.0% 19.2% 13.8% +10.8 54
2021-09-04 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 949 920 50.6% 20.7% 28.7% +20.9 32
2021-09-04 @ IF Vestri L 0-2 920 949 28.7% 20.7% 50.6% -21.0 20
2021-09-05 Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-2 842 649 67.4% 19.2% 13.5% +11.2 14
2021-09-05 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-5 649 842 13.5% 19.2% 67.4% -11.2 5
2021-09-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1080 1164 35.2% 20.9% 43.9% +14.8 36
2021-09-07 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1164 1080 43.9% 20.9% 35.2% -14.8 41
2021-09-11 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1060 1237 23.8% 20.4% 55.7% +1.9 38
2021-09-11 @ Kordrengir D 2-2 1237 1060 55.7% 20.4% 23.8% -1.9 55
2021-09-11 Grindavik L 1-3 901 920 44.2% 20.8% 34.9% -25.8 23
2021-09-11 @ Afturelding W 3-1 920 901 34.9% 20.8% 44.2% +25.8 26
2021-09-11 Grotta L 3-5 638 1007 9.6% 18.1% 72.3% -5.6 5
2021-09-11 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-3 1007 638 72.3% 18.1% 9.6% +5.6 32
2021-09-11 IF Vestri W 2-1 1095 970 61.4% 20.0% 18.6% +7.2 39
2021-09-11 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 970 1095 18.6% 20.0% 61.4% -7.2 32
2021-09-11 Selfoss L 1-2 899 891 48.0% 20.8% 31.2% -16.0 20
2021-09-11 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 891 899 31.2% 20.8% 48.0% +16.0 24
2021-09-11 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1149 854 74.2% 17.6% 8.2% +3.1 44
2021-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 854 1149 8.2% 17.6% 74.2% -3.1 14
2021-09-15 Afturelding W 8-0 1013 875 62.6% 19.8% 17.6% +49.7 35
2021-09-15 @ Grotta L 0-8 875 1013 17.6% 19.8% 62.6% -49.7 23
2021-09-18 Afturelding W 6-1 1235 825 79.8% 15.6% 4.6% +6.9 58
2021-09-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-6 825 1235 4.6% 15.6% 79.8% -6.9 23
2021-09-18 Fjolnir L 0-1 907 1102 22.0% 20.3% 57.7% -8.9 24
2021-09-18 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1102 907 57.7% 20.3% 22.0% +8.9 42
2021-09-18 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 851 883 42.4% 20.9% 36.7% -13.7 14
2021-09-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 883 851 36.7% 20.9% 42.4% +13.7 23
2021-09-18 Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-4 946 632 75.2% 17.3% 7.4% -37.6 26
2021-09-18 @ Grindavik W 4-2 632 946 7.4% 17.3% 75.2% +37.6 8
2021-09-19 IF Vestri L 1-2 1152 962 67.1% 19.2% 13.7% -21.8 44
2021-09-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 962 1152 13.7% 19.2% 67.1% +21.8 35
2021-09-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1062 1130 37.4% 20.9% 41.7% -12.3 35
2021-09-23 @ Grotta W 3-2 1130 1062 41.7% 20.9% 37.4% +12.4 47
2021-09-24 Kordrengir D 3-3 984 1062 36.1% 20.9% 43.0% +0.3 36
2021-09-24 @ IF Vestri D 3-3 1062 984 43.0% 20.9% 36.1% -0.3 39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-08-14 7.21% Vikingur Olafsvik 669 2 @ Thor Akureyri 990 0
2 2021-09-18 7.45% Vikingur Olafsvik 632 4 @ Grindavik 946 2
3 2021-09-19 13.72% IF Vestri 962 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1152 1
4 2021-05-14 17.30% Selfoss 904 3 @ Kordrengir 1045 1
5 2021-07-09 17.67% Grotta 965 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1101 0
6 2021-05-21 22.36% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 931 5 @ Afturelding 1016 0
7 2021-07-24 23.59% Selfoss 866 2 @ IF Vestri 940 1
8 2021-09-04 24.08% Fjolnir 1036 4 @ Kordrengir 1104 1
9 2021-06-26 24.28% Thor Akureyri 948 3 @ Fjolnir 1015 0
10 2021-08-06 27.25% IF Vestri 934 2 @ Grindavik 975 1
11 2021-07-29 28.62% Throttur Reykjavik 856 3 @ Selfoss 885 0
12 2021-08-13 29.41% @ Selfoss 829 3 Grindavik 958 2
13 2021-05-30 31.19% Grindavik 953 3 @ IF Vestri 961 2
14 2021-09-11 31.24% Selfoss 891 2 @ Thor Akureyri 899 1
15 2021-08-19 32.55% @ Grotta 987 2 Kordrengir 1091 1
16 2021-05-21 34.08% @ Throttur Reykjavik 847 3 Selfoss 939 1
17 2021-08-14 34.37% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1122 1 @ Kordrengir 1107 0
18 2021-09-11 34.90% Grindavik 920 3 @ Afturelding 901 1
19 2021-08-06 35.05% @ Afturelding 934 2 Thor Akureyri 1020 0
20 2021-05-08 35.16% IF Vestri 968 3 @ Selfoss 947 0
21 2021-09-07 35.25% @ Fjolnir 1080 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1164 1
22 2021-08-24 35.46% @ Selfoss 843 3 Afturelding 925 0
23 2021-05-21 35.68% Fjolnir 1007 2 @ Grindavik 982 0
24 2021-05-22 36.17% @ Grotta 952 5 IF Vestri 1029 0
25 2021-09-18 36.69% Thor Akureyri 883 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 851 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-07-01 91.45 Throttur Reykjavik 7 825 37.32% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 788 41.80% 20.88%
2 2021-05-21 87.74 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 931 22.36% @ Afturelding 0 1016 57.32% 20.32%
3 2021-05-22 68.03 @ Grotta 5 952 36.17% IF Vestri 0 1029 42.96% 20.87%
4 2021-06-26 52.67 Thor Akureyri 3 948 24.28% @ Fjolnir 0 1015 55.26% 20.46%
5 2021-09-15 49.69 @ Grotta 8 1013 62.61% Afturelding 0 875 17.56% 19.83%
6 2021-08-14 48.76 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 669 7.21% @ Thor Akureyri 0 990 75.59% 17.20%
7 2021-07-29 48.69 Throttur Reykjavik 3 856 28.62% @ Selfoss 0 885 50.69% 20.69%
8 2021-09-04 44.57 Fjolnir 4 1036 24.08% @ Kordrengir 1 1104 55.47% 20.45%
9 2021-05-08 43.08 IF Vestri 3 968 35.16% @ Selfoss 0 947 43.98% 20.86%
10 2021-08-24 42.84 @ Selfoss 3 843 35.46% Afturelding 0 925 43.68% 20.86%
11 2021-05-14 41.70 Afturelding 5 975 41.10% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1 911 38.02% 20.88%
12 2021-09-18 37.62 Vikingur Olafsvik 4 632 7.45% @ Grindavik 2 946 75.24% 17.31%
13 2021-08-20 36.97 Fjolnir 7 1000 65.95% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 718 14.66% 19.39%
14 2021-06-27 36.01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1051 43.94% @ IF Vestri 0 967 35.20% 20.86%
15 2021-05-14 35.52 Selfoss 3 904 17.30% @ Kordrengir 1 1045 62.91% 19.80%
16 2021-05-13 34.81 @ Thor Akureyri 4 948 37.37% Grindavik 1 1017 41.75% 20.88%
17 2021-06-19 34.52 IF Vestri 3 932 45.76% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 835 33.41% 20.83%
18 2021-08-14 32.40 @ Fjolnir 3 968 48.29% Afturelding 0 957 30.94% 20.77%
19 2021-08-06 29.73 @ Afturelding 2 934 35.05% Thor Akureyri 0 1020 44.10% 20.86%
20 2021-05-21 29.37 Fjolnir 2 1007 35.68% @ Grindavik 0 982 43.46% 20.86%
21 2021-06-10 29.26 Fram Reykjavik 4 1118 59.72% @ Selfoss 0 904 20.16% 20.13%
22 2021-08-06 26.87 Kordrengir 3 1073 54.71% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 905 24.80% 20.49%
23 2021-07-09 26.26 @ Thor Akureyri 5 997 57.80% Throttur Reykjavik 1 907 21.91% 20.29%
24 2021-05-21 26.23 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 847 34.08% Selfoss 1 939 45.08% 20.84%
25 2021-09-11 25.82 Grindavik 3 920 34.90% @ Afturelding 1 901 44.25% 20.85%