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2017 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

Fylkir Reykjavik

48 pts

Keflavik IF · 46 pts

Relegated

Grotta

9 pts

Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur · 10 pts

Biggest Overachiever

HK Kopavogur

12.94 points above expected

42 points · 29.06 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur

12.95 points below expected

10 points · 22.95 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik Promoted 22 15 3 4 48 50 19 +31 40.78 +7.22
2 Keflavik IF Promoted 22 14 4 4 46 43 24 +19 36.11 +9.89
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 3 6 42 37 21 +16 36.89 +5.11
4 HK Kopavogur 22 14 0 8 42 36 28 +8 29.06 +12.94
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 10 6 6 36 38 31 +7 32.28 +3.72
6 Thor Akureyri 22 10 4 8 34 35 31 +4 31.48 +2.52
7 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 22 9 6 7 33 34 39 -5 31.79 +1.21
8 Selfoss 22 8 4 10 28 27 29 -2 29.74 -1.74
9 Fram Reykjavik 22 7 6 9 27 32 39 -7 29.42 -2.42
10 IR Reykjavik 22 5 4 13 19 27 38 -11 19.93 -0.93
11 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur Relegated 22 3 1 18 10 23 53 -30 22.95 -12.95
12 Grotta Relegated 22 2 3 17 9 16 46 -30 19.74 -10.74

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fylkir Reykjavik 1324 48 40.78 +7.22 90.9% 18 31 37 41 45 50 59
Keflavik IF 1251 46 36.11 +9.89 96.0% 16 26 32 36 40 46 57
Throttur Reykjavik 1250 42 36.89 +5.11 82.6% 15 27 33 37 41 46 60
HK Kopavogur 1192 42 29.06 +12.94 98.7% 10 20 25 29 33 39 54
Leiknir Reykjavik 1184 36 32.28 +3.72 76.3% 13 23 28 32 36 42 55
Thor Akureyri 1166 34 31.48 +2.52 69.8% 10 22 28 32 35 41 54
Selfoss 1107 28 29.74 -1.74 42.0% 9 20 26 30 34 40 53
Fram Reykjavik 1095 27 29.42 -2.42 37.8% 8 20 25 29 33 39 53
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1090 33 31.79 +1.21 61.5% 13 22 28 32 36 41 53
IR Reykjavik 1013 19 19.93 -0.93 47.9% 3 11 16 20 23 29 41
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1002 10 22.95 -12.95 0.8% 4 14 19 23 27 32 45
Grotta 948 9 19.74 -10.74 2.0% 2 11 16 20 23 29 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR FR GRO HK HH IR KI LF LR SEL TA TR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-0-2
1.82
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.64
0-0-2
1.94
2-0-0
3.41
1-1-0
2.46
0-2-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.93
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.64
 —
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.63
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.46
0-2-0
3.16
1-0-1
4.23
1-0-1
3.58
2-0-0
3.72
1-1-0
3.40
1-0-1
3.18
Grotta
0-0-2
1.85
0-0-2
1.39
 —
0-0-2
1.70
0-2-0
1.69
0-0-2
2.77
0-0-2
1.31
1-1-0
2.26
0-0-2
1.53
1-0-1
1.91
0-0-2
1.72
0-0-2
1.60
HK Kopavogur
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
1.84
2-0-0
3.78
 —
1-0-1
2.40
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-1
2.01
2-0-0
3.16
2-0-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-2
2.04
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-2
1.75
0-2-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.02
 —
1-1-0
3.80
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
3.66
1-1-0
2.60
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.77
1-1-0
2.26
IR Reykjavik
0-1-1
1.83
0-0-2
1.12
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
1.90
0-1-1
1.68
 —
0-0-2
1.51
2-0-0
2.36
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
1.74
0-0-2
1.49
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.51
0-2-0
2.27
2-0-0
4.25
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
3.04
2-0-0
3.99
 —
2-0-0
3.58
0-1-1
3.03
1-1-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.66
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
1.32
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
1.81
0-0-2
3.07
0-0-2
1.88
 —
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
2.09
0-0-2
1.79
1-0-1
1.51
Leiknir Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
1.88
2-0-0
3.98
0-0-2
3.07
0-1-1
2.83
1-1-0
3.83
1-1-0
2.41
2-0-0
3.39
 —
2-0-0
2.81
0-1-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.26
Selfoss
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
3.54
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.66
2-0-0
3.49
0-1-1
2.21
2-0-0
3.35
0-0-2
2.61
 —
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.04
Thor Akureyri
1-1-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.05
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
3.74
0-0-2
2.31
2-0-0
3.67
1-1-0
2.53
1-0-1
2.90
 —
1-0-1
2.25
Throttur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
2.25
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.41
0-1-1
3.18
2-0-0
4.02
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
4.01
0-1-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.18
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +13.5
Allowed 0.84 -11.8
Differential 0.94 +6.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%5.68%8.71%3.79%1.52%1.14%23.86%
15.68%6.82%10.23%4.92%1.14%0.38%29.17%
28.71%10.23%4.55%3.03%0.76%—27.27%
33.79%4.92%3.03%2.27%—0.38%14.39%
41.52%1.14%0.76%———3.41%
5+1.14%0.38%—0.38%——1.89%
Total23.86%29.17%27.27%14.39%3.41%1.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.95
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
2—13.64%18.18%9.09%——40.91%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%31.82%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.77 -0.32
SD 1.01 1.27 1.70
CV 0.69 0.72 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%————13.64%
1—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
218.18%18.18%————36.36%
34.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total31.82%59.09%—9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 0.86 +1.41
SD 1.55 0.83 1.92
CV 0.68 0.97 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%18.18%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
14.55%9.09%13.64%18.18%4.55%—50.00%
2——4.55%———4.55%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%18.18%36.36%27.27%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 2.09 -1.36
SD 0.77 1.11 1.53
CV 1.06 0.53 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%—9.09%——18.18%
19.09%—13.64%4.55%——27.27%
218.18%13.64%————31.82%
3—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%31.82%27.27%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.27 +0.36
SD 1.14 1.03 1.71
CV 0.69 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%4.55%—9.09%31.82%
1—13.64%9.09%———22.73%
24.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%——4.55%——9.09%
Total18.18%31.82%31.82%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.77 -0.23
SD 1.57 1.63 2.51
CV 1.01 0.92 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
1—9.09%27.27%9.09%——45.45%
29.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%27.27%36.36%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.73 -0.50
SD 0.81 1.08 1.47
CV 0.66 0.62 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
122.73%9.09%9.09%———40.91%
2—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
318.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total40.91%22.73%27.27%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.09 +0.86
SD 1.09 1.15 1.52
CV 0.56 1.06 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%27.27%13.64%—4.55%50.00%
1——9.09%9.09%4.55%—22.73%
2——4.55%4.55%4.55%—13.64%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total4.55%9.09%45.45%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.41 -1.36
SD 1.50 1.10 2.19
CV 1.43 0.46 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
213.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
3—9.09%—9.09%—4.55%22.73%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%27.27%18.18%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.41 +0.32
SD 1.16 1.37 1.70
CV 0.67 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%—4.55%—27.27%
19.09%9.09%18.18%———36.36%
213.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%36.36%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.32 -0.09
SD 1.07 1.09 1.72
CV 0.87 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
1—4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
213.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
39.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%27.27%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.41 +0.18
SD 1.14 1.18 1.87
CV 0.72 0.84 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
213.64%22.73%—4.55%——40.91%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total40.91%36.36%9.09%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 0.95 +0.73
SD 1.17 1.05 1.70
CV 0.70 1.10 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 HK Kopavogur 42 29.06 +12.94
2 Keflavik IF 46 36.11 +9.89
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 48 40.78 +7.22
4 Throttur Reykjavik 42 36.89 +5.11
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 36 32.28 +3.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 10 22.95 -12.95
2 Grotta 9 19.74 -10.74
3 Fram Reykjavik 27 29.42 -2.42
4 Selfoss 28 29.74 -1.74
5 IR Reykjavik 19 19.93 -0.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HK Kopavogur 5 Jul 15 – Aug 10 1 in 424
2 Leiknir Reykjavik 4 Aug 2 – Aug 24 1 in 79
3 Keflavik IF 6 Jun 7 – Jul 11 1 in 71
4 Throttur Reykjavik 5 May 12 – Jun 8 1 in 41
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Aug 19 – Sep 23 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 11 Jul 1 – Sep 2 1 in 2,498
2 Grotta 6 Jun 8 – Jul 11 1 in 101
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 6 – Jul 20 1 in 33
4 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 29
5 HK Kopavogur 4 May 28 – Jun 15 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HK Kopavogur 5 Jul 15 – Aug 10 1 in 15
2 Thor Akureyri 6 Jun 30 – Jul 27 1 in 13
3 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 7 Jul 11 – Aug 18 1 in 12
4 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 5 – Jun 3 1 in 8
5 IR Reykjavik 3 Aug 1 – Aug 17 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 11 Jul 1 – Sep 2 1 in 20
2 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 May 12 – Jun 7 1 in 16
3 Leiknir Reykjavik 4 Jun 14 – Jul 6 1 in 8
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 11 1 in 8
5 Grotta 10 Jul 20 – Sep 23 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Fylkir Reykjavik46.60%22.26%12.28%7.35%5.12%2.93%1.67%0.98%0.43%0.25%0.07%0.06%
Keflavik IF16.19%19.44%16.83%13.52%10.89%8.05%6.37%4.26%2.56%1.31%0.45%0.13%
Throttur Reykjavik18.11%21.29%17.88%13.85%9.67%6.97%5.05%3.32%2.27%1.06%0.39%0.14%
HK Kopavogur1.93%4.14%6.48%8.53%9.95%11.97%13.01%13.77%12.41%9.70%5.67%2.44%
Leiknir Reykjavik5.15%8.82%11.57%13.10%12.99%12.59%11.62%9.42%7.34%4.61%2.13%0.66%
Thor Akureyri3.96%7.28%9.97%12.05%13.39%12.41%12.00%11.04%8.64%5.25%2.84%1.17%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur4.00%7.75%10.03%12.47%12.73%12.47%12.29%10.23%8.67%5.37%2.84%1.15%
Selfoss2.12%4.55%7.00%8.98%10.43%12.69%13.23%13.53%11.69%8.52%4.91%2.35%
Fram Reykjavik1.81%3.96%6.69%7.92%10.31%12.24%12.96%13.59%13.45%9.19%5.57%2.31%
IR Reykjavik0.01%0.05%0.36%0.29%0.96%1.88%2.89%5.29%10.01%17.99%27.25%33.02%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur0.09%0.39%0.74%1.51%2.67%4.30%6.21%9.73%13.79%20.77%22.03%17.77%
Grotta0.03%0.07%0.17%0.43%0.89%1.50%2.70%4.84%8.74%15.98%25.85%38.80%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.18%
Clear Edge
50.76%16.67%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge
143 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
063.88400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.33 goals
Neutral
-2+0.45+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Fylkir Reykjavik, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.62 * Some Luck: 4.62 to 6.93 * Lucky: 6.93 to 9.23 * Wild Swing: 9.23 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.56 * Close: 1.56 to 2.34 * Off: 2.34 to 3.12 * Way Off: 3.12 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.75 * A Surprise: 0.75 to 1.2 * Several Surprises: 1.2 to 1.65 * Many Surprises: 1.65 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.31 points
Lucky
05.7714
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.954
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.71%
HK Kopavogur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.75%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.86
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.69
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.82
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.70
Very Underconfident
0.09281271.001.90719
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.128
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Fylkir Reykjavik 68.86% 31.01% 0.13%
Throttur Reykjavik 39.40% 60.07% 0.53%
Keflavik IF 35.63% 63.79% 0.58%
Leiknir Reykjavik 13.97% 83.24% 2.79%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 11.75% 84.26% 3.99%
Thor Akureyri 11.24% 84.75% 4.01%
Selfoss 6.67% 86.07% 7.26%
HK Kopavogur 6.07% 85.82% 8.11%
Fram Reykjavik 5.77% 86.35% 7.88%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0.48% 59.72% 39.80%
IR Reykjavik 0.06% 39.67% 60.27%
Grotta 0.10% 35.25% 64.65%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2017-05-05 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1131 1130 40.2% 28.8% 31.0% -8.6 0
2017-05-05 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1130 1131 31.0% 28.8% 40.2% +8.7 3
2017-05-05 IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1122 1024 52.8% 26.8% 20.5% +5.4 3
2017-05-05 @ Selfoss L 0-1 1024 1122 20.5% 26.8% 52.8% -5.4 0
2017-05-05 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1155 1165 38.6% 28.9% 32.5% -0.3 1
2017-05-05 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1165 1155 32.5% 28.9% 38.6% +0.3 1
2017-05-06 Grotta D 2-2 1133 1059 49.9% 27.4% 22.7% -1.0 1
2017-05-06 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 2-2 1059 1133 22.7% 27.4% 49.9% +1.0 1
2017-05-06 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1188 1145 45.8% 28.2% 26.0% -9.6 0
2017-05-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1145 1188 26.0% 28.2% 45.8% +9.6 3
2017-05-06 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1222 1147 49.9% 27.4% 22.7% +9.6 3
2017-05-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1147 1222 22.7% 27.4% 49.9% -9.6 0
2017-05-12 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1060 1232 19.6% 26.4% 54.0% -4.9 1
2017-05-12 @ Grotta W 2-1 1232 1060 54.0% 26.4% 19.6% +4.9 6
2017-05-12 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1138 1155 37.7% 28.9% 33.4% -0.1 4
2017-05-12 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1155 1138 33.4% 28.9% 37.7% +0.1 4
2017-05-12 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1122 1155 35.4% 28.9% 35.7% +7.5 3
2017-05-12 @ HK Kopavogur L 2-3 1155 1122 35.7% 28.9% 35.4% -7.5 1
2017-05-12 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1019 1178 20.6% 26.8% 52.6% -5.1 0
2017-05-12 @ IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1178 1019 52.6% 26.8% 20.6% +5.1 3
2017-05-13 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-0 1165 1132 44.5% 28.4% 27.2% +18.8 4
2017-05-13 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1132 1165 27.2% 28.4% 44.5% -18.8 1
2017-05-13 Selfoss L 1-4 1138 1127 41.5% 28.7% 29.8% -21.7 0
2017-05-13 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1127 1138 29.8% 28.7% 41.5% +21.7 6
2017-05-20 Grotta L 0-1 1149 1055 52.3% 26.9% 20.8% -11.3 6
2017-05-20 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1055 1149 20.8% 26.9% 52.3% +11.3 4
2017-05-20 HK Kopavogur L 1-3 1114 1129 37.8% 28.9% 33.3% -14.3 1
2017-05-20 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-1 1129 1114 33.3% 28.9% 37.8% +14.3 6
2017-05-20 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1183 1116 49.0% 27.6% 23.4% +5.7 6
2017-05-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1116 1183 23.4% 27.6% 49.0% -5.7 0
2017-05-21 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1147 1138 41.3% 28.7% 30.0% -0.4 2
2017-05-21 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1138 1147 30.0% 28.7% 41.3% +0.4 5
2017-05-21 IR Reykjavik D 1-1 1155 1014 57.8% 25.2% 17.1% -2.0 5
2017-05-21 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1014 1155 17.1% 25.2% 57.8% +2.0 1
2017-05-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1237 1184 47.1% 28.0% 24.9% -1.0 7
2017-05-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1184 1237 24.9% 28.0% 47.1% +1.0 5
2017-05-25 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 1147 1099 46.4% 28.1% 25.5% +12.3 5
2017-05-25 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1099 1147 25.5% 28.1% 46.4% -12.3 1
2017-05-25 Selfoss D 2-2 1185 1138 46.4% 28.1% 25.5% -0.7 6
2017-05-25 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1138 1185 25.5% 28.1% 46.4% +0.7 7
2017-05-26 IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1138 1016 55.7% 25.9% 18.4% +4.6 8
2017-05-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1016 1138 18.4% 25.9% 55.7% -4.6 1
2017-05-26 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 1066 1189 24.2% 27.8% 48.0% -17.1 4
2017-05-26 @ Grotta W 3-0 1189 1066 48.0% 27.8% 24.2% +17.1 9
2017-05-27 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1110 1153 34.0% 28.9% 37.1% +8.2 3
2017-05-27 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1153 1110 37.1% 28.9% 34.0% -8.2 5
2017-05-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1144 1236 27.6% 28.4% 43.9% -19.0 6
2017-05-28 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1236 1144 43.9% 28.4% 27.6% +19.0 10
2017-06-02 Grotta D 1-1 1145 1049 52.5% 26.8% 20.7% -1.5 6
2017-06-02 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1049 1145 20.7% 26.8% 52.5% +1.5 5
2017-06-02 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1206 1184 43.1% 28.5% 28.4% +13.4 12
2017-06-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1184 1206 28.4% 28.5% 43.1% -13.4 6
2017-06-03 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1087 1143 32.2% 28.8% 39.0% -7.4 1
2017-06-03 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-1 1143 1087 39.0% 28.8% 32.2% +7.4 11
2017-06-03 HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1138 1125 41.9% 28.6% 29.4% +7.3 10
2017-06-03 @ Selfoss L 0-1 1125 1138 29.4% 28.6% 41.9% -7.3 6
2017-06-03 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1011 1119 25.8% 28.1% 46.0% +9.6 4
2017-06-03 @ IR Reykjavik L 1-2 1119 1011 46.0% 28.1% 25.8% -9.6 3
2017-06-05 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1255 1159 52.5% 26.8% 20.7% +10.3 13
2017-06-05 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1159 1255 20.7% 26.8% 52.5% -10.3 5
2017-06-07 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1171 1143 43.8% 28.4% 27.7% +19.1 9
2017-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1143 1171 27.7% 28.4% 43.8% -19.1 6
2017-06-08 IR Reykjavik L 1-2 1051 1021 44.2% 28.4% 27.4% -9.3 5
2017-06-08 @ Grotta W 2-1 1021 1051 27.4% 28.4% 44.2% +9.3 7
2017-06-08 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1150 1109 45.6% 28.2% 26.1% -16.5 11
2017-06-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1109 1150 26.1% 28.2% 45.6% +16.5 6
2017-06-08 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1117 1220 26.4% 28.3% 45.3% -6.7 6
2017-06-08 @ HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1220 1117 45.3% 28.3% 26.4% +6.7 15
2017-06-09 Selfoss W 2-0 1149 1146 40.4% 28.8% 30.8% +14.2 8
2017-06-09 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1146 1149 30.8% 28.8% 40.4% -14.2 10
2017-06-10 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1080 1265 18.5% 25.9% 55.6% +19.4 4
2017-06-10 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 1-3 1265 1080 55.6% 25.9% 18.5% -19.4 13
2017-06-14 Leiknir Reykjavik D 3-3 1226 1163 48.5% 27.7% 23.8% -0.7 16
2017-06-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 3-3 1163 1226 23.8% 27.7% 48.5% +0.7 9
2017-06-15 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1245 1134 54.4% 26.3% 19.3% +9.6 16
2017-06-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1134 1245 19.3% 26.3% 54.4% -9.6 11
2017-06-15 Grotta W 2-0 1125 1041 51.1% 27.2% 21.8% +10.7 9
2017-06-15 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1041 1125 21.8% 27.2% 51.1% -10.7 5
2017-06-15 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1124 1111 41.9% 28.6% 29.5% +6.9 9
2017-06-15 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1111 1124 29.5% 28.6% 41.9% -6.9 6
2017-06-16 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1030 1190 20.6% 26.8% 52.6% -8.9 7
2017-06-16 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-1 1190 1030 52.6% 26.8% 20.6% +8.9 12
2017-06-18 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 1131 1099 44.5% 28.4% 27.2% +12.9 13
2017-06-18 @ Selfoss L 0-2 1099 1131 27.2% 28.4% 44.5% -12.9 4
2017-06-22 Grotta W 1-0 1124 1031 52.2% 26.9% 20.9% +5.5 14
2017-06-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1031 1124 20.9% 26.9% 52.2% -5.5 5
2017-06-22 IR Reykjavik W 2-0 1104 1021 50.9% 27.2% 21.9% +10.8 9
2017-06-22 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1021 1104 21.9% 27.2% 50.9% -10.8 7
2017-06-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1164 1131 44.5% 28.4% 27.1% -0.9 10
2017-06-23 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1131 1164 27.1% 28.4% 44.5% +0.9 10
2017-06-23 Selfoss W 2-0 1255 1144 54.3% 26.3% 19.4% +9.7 19
2017-06-23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1144 1255 19.4% 26.3% 54.3% -9.7 13
2017-06-24 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1199 1136 48.4% 27.8% 23.9% +6.2 15
2017-06-24 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1136 1199 23.9% 27.8% 48.4% -6.2 9
2017-06-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1086 1226 22.5% 27.4% 50.1% +9.8 7
2017-06-24 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 2-3 1226 1086 50.1% 27.4% 22.5% -9.8 16
2017-06-29 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1025 1205 19.0% 26.1% 54.9% -5.0 5
2017-06-29 @ Grotta W 1-0 1205 1025 54.9% 26.1% 19.0% +5.0 18
2017-06-29 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1010 1163 21.3% 27.0% 51.7% +1.5 8
2017-06-29 @ IR Reykjavik D 1-1 1163 1010 51.7% 27.0% 21.3% -1.5 11
2017-06-30 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1135 1130 40.7% 28.7% 30.5% -0.5 14
2017-06-30 @ Selfoss D 1-1 1130 1135 30.5% 28.7% 40.7% +0.4 15
2017-06-30 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1130 1115 42.2% 28.6% 29.2% +19.9 12
2017-06-30 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1115 1130 29.2% 28.6% 42.2% -19.9 9
2017-07-01 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 5-0 1132 1096 44.9% 28.3% 26.8% +29.9 13
2017-07-01 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-5 1096 1132 26.8% 28.3% 44.9% -29.9 7
2017-07-03 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1216 1265 33.1% 28.9% 38.0% +8.8 19
2017-07-03 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1265 1216 38.0% 28.9% 33.1% -8.8 19
2017-07-06 Grotta W 2-0 1095 1020 49.9% 27.4% 22.7% +11.1 12
2017-07-06 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1020 1095 22.7% 27.4% 49.9% -11.1 5
2017-07-06 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1130 1210 29.1% 28.6% 42.3% -7.2 15
2017-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1210 1130 42.3% 28.6% 29.1% +7.2 21
2017-07-06 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1161 1150 41.6% 28.7% 29.7% -17.8 11
2017-07-06 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1150 1161 29.7% 28.7% 41.6% +17.8 15
2017-07-07 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1256 1162 52.3% 26.9% 20.8% +10.3 22
2017-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1162 1256 20.8% 26.9% 52.3% -10.3 13
2017-07-07 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1134 1225 27.8% 28.5% 43.7% +0.7 15
2017-07-07 @ Selfoss D 1-1 1225 1134 43.7% 28.5% 27.8% -0.7 20
2017-07-08 IR Reykjavik L 0-2 1066 1012 47.3% 27.9% 24.7% -19.7 7
2017-07-08 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 1012 1066 24.7% 27.9% 47.3% +19.7 11
2017-07-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1224 1123 53.1% 26.7% 20.2% +5.0 23
2017-07-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1123 1224 20.2% 26.7% 53.1% -5.0 15
2017-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1031 1266 15.0% 23.9% 61.0% -3.7 11
2017-07-11 @ IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1266 1031 61.0% 23.9% 15.0% +3.8 25
2017-07-11 HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1217 1106 54.3% 26.3% 19.4% +8.4 24
2017-07-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1106 1217 19.4% 26.3% 54.3% -8.4 12
2017-07-11 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-1 1168 1046 55.5% 25.9% 18.6% +4.6 18
2017-07-11 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1046 1168 18.6% 25.9% 55.5% -4.6 7
2017-07-11 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-3 1009 1144 23.0% 27.5% 49.5% -9.8 5
2017-07-11 @ Grotta W 3-1 1144 1009 49.5% 27.5% 23.0% +9.8 14
2017-07-11 Selfoss W 2-1 1151 1135 42.3% 28.6% 29.1% +6.8 16
2017-07-11 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1135 1151 29.1% 28.6% 42.3% -6.8 15
2017-07-15 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1172 1270 26.9% 28.3% 44.7% +0.8 19
2017-07-15 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1270 1172 44.7% 28.3% 26.9% -0.8 26
2017-07-15 HK Kopavogur L 2-3 1118 1098 42.8% 28.6% 28.6% -8.6 15
2017-07-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1098 1118 28.6% 28.6% 42.8% +8.6 15
2017-07-15 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-0 999 1042 34.0% 28.9% 37.1% +23.7 8
2017-07-15 @ Grotta L 0-3 1042 999 37.1% 28.9% 34.0% -23.7 7
2017-07-15 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1225 1153 49.6% 27.5% 22.9% -10.2 24
2017-07-15 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1153 1225 22.9% 27.5% 49.6% +10.2 17
2017-07-15 Selfoss L 1-3 1028 1128 26.6% 28.3% 45.1% -11.0 11
2017-07-15 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-1 1128 1028 45.1% 28.3% 26.6% +11.0 18
2017-07-15 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1158 1229 30.2% 28.7% 41.0% +0.5 17
2017-07-15 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1229 1158 41.0% 28.7% 30.2% -0.5 24
2017-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1159 1109 46.7% 28.0% 25.2% +5.8 20
2017-07-20 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1109 1159 25.2% 28.0% 46.7% -5.8 15
2017-07-20 Grotta W 4-0 1269 1023 68.4% 20.5% 11.1% +10.1 29
2017-07-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 1023 1269 11.1% 20.5% 68.4% -10.1 8
2017-07-20 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1164 1106 47.7% 27.9% 24.4% -9.9 17
2017-07-20 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1106 1164 24.4% 27.9% 47.7% +9.9 18
2017-07-21 IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1228 1017 65.1% 22.1% 12.7% +3.1 27
2017-07-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1017 1228 12.7% 22.1% 65.1% -3.1 11
2017-07-22 Keflavik IF L 2-4 1018 1215 17.6% 25.5% 56.9% -6.8 7
2017-07-22 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-2 1215 1018 56.9% 25.5% 17.6% +6.8 27
2017-07-22 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1139 1173 35.2% 28.9% 35.9% -7.5 18
2017-07-22 @ Selfoss W 3-2 1173 1139 35.9% 28.9% 35.2% +7.5 22
2017-07-24 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1103 1154 32.9% 28.9% 38.2% +24.2 18
2017-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1154 1103 38.2% 28.9% 32.9% -24.2 17
2017-07-27 Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-3 1222 1279 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +0.2 28
2017-07-27 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1279 1222 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -0.2 30
2017-07-27 Selfoss L 0-2 1013 1132 24.6% 27.9% 47.5% -11.9 8
2017-07-27 @ Grotta W 2-0 1132 1013 47.5% 27.9% 24.6% +11.9 21
2017-07-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1181 1231 32.8% 28.9% 38.3% +16.7 25
2017-07-27 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1231 1181 38.3% 28.9% 32.8% -16.7 27
2017-07-28 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1013 1165 21.4% 27.1% 51.5% -5.3 11
2017-07-28 @ IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1165 1013 51.5% 27.1% 21.4% +5.3 23
2017-07-29 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 1-0 1116 1011 53.6% 26.5% 19.9% +5.3 21
2017-07-29 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1011 1116 19.9% 26.5% 53.6% -5.3 7
2017-08-01 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1008 1128 24.5% 27.9% 47.6% +0.8 12
2017-08-01 @ IR Reykjavik D 2-2 1128 1008 47.6% 27.9% 24.5% -0.8 19
2017-08-02 Grotta W 2-0 1215 1001 65.3% 22.0% 12.6% +6.2 30
2017-08-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1001 1215 12.6% 22.0% 65.3% -6.2 8
2017-08-02 HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1279 1121 59.6% 24.5% 15.9% -12.6 30
2017-08-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1121 1279 15.9% 24.5% 59.6% +12.6 24
2017-08-02 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1144 1222 29.2% 28.6% 42.1% -6.9 21
2017-08-02 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1222 1144 42.1% 28.6% 29.2% +6.8 31
2017-08-02 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-3 1006 1129 24.1% 27.8% 48.1% -10.2 7
2017-08-02 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-1 1129 1006 48.1% 27.8% 24.1% +10.2 20
2017-08-02 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1170 1197 36.1% 28.9% 34.9% +15.6 26
2017-08-02 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1197 1170 34.9% 28.9% 36.1% -15.6 25
2017-08-10 Selfoss W 2-1 1134 1137 39.6% 28.8% 31.6% +7.3 27
2017-08-10 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1137 1134 31.6% 28.8% 39.6% -7.3 21
2017-08-11 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1140 1267 23.8% 27.7% 48.5% +10.6 23
2017-08-11 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1267 1140 48.5% 27.7% 23.8% -10.6 30
2017-08-11 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 995 1185 18.1% 25.7% 56.2% +1.9 9
2017-08-11 @ Grotta D 1-1 1185 995 56.2% 25.7% 18.1% -1.9 27
2017-08-11 IR Reykjavik D 0-0 1182 1009 61.2% 23.9% 15.0% -2.6 26
2017-08-11 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1009 1182 15.0% 23.9% 61.2% +2.6 13
2017-08-11 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1229 1221 41.2% 28.7% 30.1% +7.4 34
2017-08-11 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1221 1229 30.1% 28.7% 41.2% -7.4 30
2017-08-13 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-2 1127 996 56.6% 25.6% 17.8% +4.2 22
2017-08-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 996 1127 17.8% 25.6% 56.6% -4.2 7
2017-08-17 Grotta W 3-1 1011 997 42.1% 28.6% 29.3% +11.9 16
2017-08-17 @ IR Reykjavik L 1-3 997 1011 29.3% 28.6% 42.1% -11.9 9
2017-08-17 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1130 1150 37.1% 28.9% 34.0% -16.3 21
2017-08-17 @ Selfoss W 2-0 1150 1130 34.0% 28.9% 37.1% +16.3 26
2017-08-18 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1179 1131 46.5% 28.1% 25.4% -0.7 27
2017-08-18 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1131 1179 25.4% 28.1% 46.5% +0.7 23
2017-08-18 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1214 1141 49.6% 27.5% 22.9% +5.6 33
2017-08-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1141 1214 22.9% 27.5% 49.6% -5.6 27
2017-08-18 Keflavik IF W 4-2 1184 1237 32.6% 28.9% 38.6% +13.0 30
2017-08-18 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1237 1184 38.6% 28.9% 32.6% -13.0 34
2017-08-19 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-1 1256 992 70.1% 19.6% 10.3% +6.0 33
2017-08-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-4 992 1256 10.3% 19.6% 70.1% -6.0 7
2017-08-24 IR Reykjavik W 3-2 1224 1023 64.0% 22.7% 13.4% +3.1 37
2017-08-24 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1023 1224 13.4% 22.7% 64.0% -3.1 16
2017-08-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1167 1219 32.6% 28.9% 38.5% +8.9 29
2017-08-24 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1219 1167 38.5% 28.9% 32.6% -8.9 33
2017-08-25 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-5 1132 1262 23.4% 27.6% 48.9% -18.1 23
2017-08-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-1 1262 1132 48.9% 27.6% 23.4% +18.1 36
2017-08-25 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1136 1197 31.5% 28.8% 39.7% +17.2 30
2017-08-25 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1197 1136 39.7% 28.8% 31.5% -17.2 30
2017-08-26 Selfoss L 0-2 986 1113 23.7% 27.7% 48.6% -11.6 7
2017-08-26 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 1113 986 48.6% 27.7% 23.7% +11.6 24
2017-08-26 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 985 1178 17.9% 25.6% 56.5% -7.7 9
2017-08-26 @ Grotta W 3-1 1178 985 56.5% 25.6% 17.9% +7.7 30
2017-08-30 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 977 1114 22.8% 27.5% 49.8% -9.7 9
2017-08-30 @ Grotta W 3-1 1114 977 49.8% 27.5% 22.8% +9.7 26
2017-08-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1125 1280 21.0% 26.9% 52.0% -5.2 24
2017-08-30 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1280 1125 52.0% 26.9% 21.0% +5.2 39
2017-08-30 HK Kopavogur L 2-3 1020 1153 23.2% 27.6% 49.2% -5.4 16
2017-08-30 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-2 1153 1020 49.2% 27.6% 23.2% +5.4 33
2017-08-30 Keflavik IF L 0-3 1186 1227 34.3% 28.9% 36.8% -22.4 30
2017-08-30 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1227 1186 36.8% 28.9% 34.3% +22.4 40
2017-08-31 Leiknir Reykjavik W 5-3 1179 1175 40.6% 28.8% 30.6% +10.4 33
2017-08-31 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 3-5 1175 1179 30.6% 28.8% 40.6% -10.4 29
2017-09-02 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 1210 974 67.5% 21.0% 11.5% +5.6 36
2017-09-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 974 1210 11.5% 21.0% 67.5% -5.6 7
2017-09-07 Grotta W 3-0 1249 967 71.7% 18.8% 9.6% +6.5 43
2017-09-07 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 967 1249 9.6% 18.8% 71.7% -6.5 9
2017-09-07 IR Reykjavik W 4-0 1165 1015 58.7% 24.8% 16.4% +15.6 32
2017-09-07 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-4 1015 1165 16.4% 24.8% 58.7% -15.6 16
2017-09-07 Selfoss D 0-0 1123 1120 40.6% 28.8% 30.7% -0.5 27
2017-09-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1120 1123 30.7% 28.8% 40.6% +0.5 25
2017-09-07 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1285 1216 49.2% 27.6% 23.2% +9.8 42
2017-09-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1216 1285 23.2% 27.6% 49.2% -9.8 36
2017-09-09 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 6-0 968 1190 15.9% 24.5% 59.6% +65.8 10
2017-09-09 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 0-6 1190 968 59.6% 24.5% 15.9% -65.8 33
2017-09-09 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1158 1164 39.2% 28.8% 31.9% +14.6 36
2017-09-09 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1164 1158 31.9% 28.8% 39.2% -14.6 30
2017-09-16 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1256 1123 56.8% 25.5% 17.7% +4.7 46
2017-09-16 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1123 1256 17.7% 25.5% 56.8% -4.7 27
2017-09-16 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-6 1124 1295 19.7% 26.4% 53.9% -27.2 33
2017-09-16 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 6-0 1295 1124 53.9% 26.4% 19.7% +27.2 45
2017-09-16 HK Kopavogur L 1-4 961 1173 16.6% 24.9% 58.6% -10.1 9
2017-09-16 @ Grotta W 4-1 1173 961 58.6% 24.9% 16.6% +10.1 39
2017-09-16 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 999 1034 35.0% 28.9% 36.0% +16.0 19
2017-09-16 @ IR Reykjavik L 0-2 1034 999 36.0% 28.9% 35.0% -16.0 10
2017-09-16 Leiknir Reykjavik D 3-3 1149 1181 35.6% 28.9% 35.5% +0.0 31
2017-09-16 @ Thor Akureyri D 3-3 1181 1149 35.5% 28.9% 35.6% +0.0 33
2017-09-16 Selfoss W 4-0 1206 1120 51.3% 27.1% 21.6% +20.2 39
2017-09-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-4 1120 1206 21.6% 27.1% 51.3% -20.2 25
2017-09-23 Grotta W 2-1 1181 951 66.9% 21.3% 11.8% +2.9 36
2017-09-23 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 951 1181 11.8% 21.3% 66.9% -2.9 9
2017-09-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1100 1097 40.5% 28.8% 30.8% +7.1 28
2017-09-23 @ Selfoss L 1-2 1097 1100 30.8% 28.8% 40.5% -7.1 33
2017-09-23 IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1322 1015 73.8% 17.5% 8.6% +2.0 48
2017-09-23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1015 1322 8.6% 17.5% 73.8% -2.0 19
2017-09-23 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1183 1260 29.4% 28.6% 42.0% +9.0 42
2017-09-23 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1260 1183 42.0% 28.6% 29.4% -8.9 46
2017-09-23 Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1018 1149 23.4% 27.6% 49.0% -16.6 10
2017-09-23 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-0 1149 1018 49.0% 27.6% 23.4% +16.6 34
2017-09-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-4 1118 1226 25.8% 28.1% 46.1% -23.5 27
2017-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1226 1118 46.1% 28.1% 25.8% +23.5 42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-09-09 15.90% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 968 6 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1190 0
2 2017-08-02 15.92% HK Kopavogur 1121 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1279 0
3 2017-06-10 18.52% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1080 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1265 1
4 2017-05-20 20.85% Grotta 1055 1 @ Selfoss 1149 0
5 2017-06-24 22.52% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1086 3 Throttur Reykjavik 1226 2
6 2017-07-15 22.89% Leiknir Reykjavik 1153 2 @ Keflavik IF 1225 1
7 2017-08-11 23.75% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1140 1 Fylkir Reykjavik 1267 0
8 2017-07-20 24.40% HK Kopavogur 1106 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1164 1
9 2017-07-08 24.71% IR Reykjavik 1012 2 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1066 0
10 2017-06-03 25.81% @ IR Reykjavik 1011 2 Thor Akureyri 1119 1
11 2017-05-06 25.99% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1145 2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1188 1
12 2017-06-08 26.14% Thor Akureyri 1109 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1150 1
13 2017-06-08 27.42% IR Reykjavik 1021 2 @ Grotta 1051 1
14 2017-07-15 28.61% HK Kopavogur 1098 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1118 2
15 2017-09-23 29.38% @ HK Kopavogur 1183 2 Keflavik IF 1260 1
16 2017-07-06 29.72% Thor Akureyri 1150 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1161 0
17 2017-05-13 29.82% Selfoss 1127 4 @ Thor Akureyri 1138 1
18 2017-05-05 31.03% Fram Reykjavik 1130 2 @ HK Kopavogur 1131 1
19 2017-08-25 31.47% @ HK Kopavogur 1136 2 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1197 0
20 2017-08-18 32.56% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1184 4 Keflavik IF 1237 2
21 2017-08-24 32.60% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1167 1 Throttur Reykjavik 1219 0
22 2017-07-27 32.84% @ Thor Akureyri 1181 2 Throttur Reykjavik 1231 0
23 2017-07-24 32.94% @ Fram Reykjavik 1103 3 Leiknir Reykjavik 1154 0
24 2017-07-03 33.10% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1216 1 Fylkir Reykjavik 1265 0
25 2017-05-20 33.30% HK Kopavogur 1129 3 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1114 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-09-09 65.80 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 6 968 15.90% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1190 59.59% 24.51%
2 2017-07-01 29.89 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 1132 44.93% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1096 26.76% 28.31%
3 2017-09-16 27.21 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1295 53.91% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1124 19.67% 26.42%
4 2017-07-24 24.19 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1103 32.94% Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1154 38.17% 28.88%
5 2017-07-15 23.69 @ Grotta 3 999 34.01% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1042 37.07% 28.91%
6 2017-09-23 23.52 Throttur Reykjavik 4 1226 46.09% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1118 25.77% 28.14%
7 2017-08-30 22.39 Keflavik IF 3 1227 36.81% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1186 34.27% 28.92%
8 2017-05-13 21.72 Selfoss 4 1127 29.82% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1138 41.49% 28.69%
9 2017-09-16 20.23 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1206 51.31% Selfoss 0 1120 21.58% 27.11%
10 2017-06-30 19.89 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1130 42.16% HK Kopavogur 0 1115 29.21% 28.63%
11 2017-07-08 19.66 IR Reykjavik 2 1012 24.71% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1066 47.35% 27.94%
12 2017-06-10 19.38 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 3 1080 18.52% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1265 55.56% 25.93%
13 2017-06-07 19.10 @ Keflavik IF 3 1171 43.81% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1143 27.74% 28.45%
14 2017-05-28 19.04 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1236 43.92% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1144 27.64% 28.44%
15 2017-05-13 18.78 @ Keflavik IF 3 1165 44.48% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1132 27.15% 28.37%
16 2017-08-25 18.11 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 1262 48.92% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1132 23.44% 27.64%
17 2017-07-06 17.77 Thor Akureyri 2 1150 29.72% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1161 41.60% 28.68%
18 2017-08-25 17.16 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1136 31.47% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1197 39.72% 28.81%
19 2017-05-26 17.09 Throttur Reykjavik 3 1189 47.99% @ Grotta 0 1066 24.19% 27.82%
20 2017-07-27 16.70 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1181 32.84% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1231 38.28% 28.88%
21 2017-09-23 16.59 Thor Akureyri 3 1149 49.01% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1018 23.37% 27.62%
22 2017-06-08 16.54 Thor Akureyri 3 1109 26.14% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1150 45.65% 28.21%
23 2017-08-17 16.32 Leiknir Reykjavik 2 1150 33.97% @ Selfoss 0 1130 37.12% 28.91%
24 2017-09-16 15.98 @ IR Reykjavik 2 999 35.05% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1034 36.02% 28.93%
25 2017-08-02 15.63 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 2 1170 36.14% Thor Akureyri 0 1197 34.93% 28.93%