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2015 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

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Relegated

IB Bolungarvik

10 pts

Grotta · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Olafsvik

16.97 points above expected

54 points · 37.03 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IB Bolungarvik

9.39 points below expected

10 points · 19.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 22 17 3 2 54 53 14 +39 37.03 +16.97
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 14 2 6 44 45 21 +24 37.24 +6.76
3 KA Akureyri 22 12 5 5 41 42 22 +20 34.66 +6.34
4 Thor Akureyri 22 12 2 8 38 40 34 +6 32.07 +5.93
5 Grindavik 22 11 3 8 36 41 30 +11 34.74 +1.26
6 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 22 10 4 8 34 32 28 +4 32.45 +1.55
7 KF Fjardabyggdar 22 9 4 9 31 35 37 -2 34.03 -3.03
8 HK Kopavogur 22 10 1 11 31 26 33 -7 27.49 +3.51
9 Fram Reykjavik 22 5 6 11 21 34 45 -11 30.33 -9.33
10 Selfoss 22 5 5 12 20 20 38 -18 22.21 -2.21
11 Grotta Relegated 22 4 3 15 15 10 39 -29 18.52 -3.52
12 IB Bolungarvik Relegated 22 2 4 16 10 22 59 -37 19.39 -9.39

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vikingur Olafsvik 1412 54 37.03 +16.97 99.9% 15 27 33 37 41 47 59
KA Akureyri 1327 41 34.66 +6.34 87.9% 14 25 31 35 39 44 56
Throttur Reykjavik 1308 44 37.24 +6.76 89.0% 17 28 33 37 41 47 63
Grindavik 1297 36 34.74 +1.26 61.5% 12 25 31 35 39 44 56
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1231 34 32.45 +1.55 64.2% 11 23 29 32 36 42 52
Thor Akureyri 1226 38 32.07 +5.93 86.6% 11 22 28 32 36 42 56
HK Kopavogur 1212 31 27.49 +3.51 75.6% 8 18 24 27 31 37 49
KF Fjardabyggdar 1181 31 34.03 -3.03 34.0% 13 25 30 34 38 44 56
Fram Reykjavik 1156 21 30.33 -9.33 6.2% 10 21 26 30 34 40 54
Selfoss 1077 20 22.21 -2.21 39.1% 5 13 18 22 26 32 46
IB Bolungarvik 1010 10 19.39 -9.39 4.1% 3 11 16 19 23 28 40
Grotta 1006 15 18.52 -3.52 29.1% 2 10 15 18 22 27 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR GRI GRO HK HH IB KA KF SEL TA TR VO
Fram Reykjavik —
0-1-1
2.09
1-1-0
3.80
0-0-2
3.17
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
3.87
0-2-0
2.48
0-1-1
2.39
0-0-2
3.50
0-0-2
2.75
1-1-0
1.94
0-0-2
1.81
Grindavik
1-1-0
3.36
 —
1-0-1
4.12
2-0-0
3.47
0-1-1
3.06
2-0-0
4.03
2-0-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
3.71
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.47
0-0-2
2.48
Grotta
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.39
 —
0-0-2
1.89
0-0-2
1.58
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
1.47
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
1.46
0-0-2
1.15
0-1-1
1.46
HK Kopavogur
2-0-0
2.26
0-0-2
1.98
2-0-0
3.56
 —
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.04
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.30
0-0-2
2.06
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.38
2-0-0
3.90
1-0-1
3.15
 —
0-2-0
4.09
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.50
2-0-0
3.58
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.56
IB Bolungarvik
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
1.82
0-2-0
1.43
 —
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
1.34
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
1.39
KA Akureyri
0-2-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.96
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-1
3.63
1-0-1
2.86
2-0-0
4.20
 —
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.33
0-2-0
2.40
KF Fjardabyggdar
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
4.03
1-0-1
3.40
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-0
4.18
0-0-2
2.86
 —
1-1-0
3.67
0-1-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.30
1-0-1
2.07
Selfoss
2-0-0
1.96
0-1-1
1.77
1-1-0
3.17
0-0-2
2.34
0-0-2
1.88
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
1.72
0-1-1
1.79
 —
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
1.38
0-0-2
1.72
Thor Akureyri
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
4.05
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.67
0-0-2
2.38
1-1-0
2.53
2-0-0
3.64
 —
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
2.24
Throttur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.51
2-0-0
2.96
2-0-0
4.42
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.86
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
4.14
1-0-1
3.04
 —
1-0-1
2.85
Vikingur Olafsvik
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
2.94
1-1-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.41
2-0-0
2.86
2-0-0
4.13
0-2-0
3.04
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +9.5
Allowed 0.85 -9.9
Differential 0.97 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.79%8.71%7.20%3.41%3.41%1.14%27.65%
18.71%3.79%8.33%3.41%1.52%0.76%26.52%
27.20%8.33%6.82%2.65%—1.14%26.14%
33.41%3.41%2.65%1.52%0.38%—11.36%
43.41%1.52%—0.38%——5.30%
5+1.14%0.76%1.14%———3.03%
Total27.65%26.52%26.14%11.36%5.30%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.38 2.15
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%——9.09%—22.73%
14.55%9.09%18.18%———31.82%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%—9.09%4.55%—22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.05 -0.50
SD 1.22 1.68 1.99
CV 0.79 0.82 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%9.09%———22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
213.64%4.55%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total27.27%36.36%27.27%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.36 +0.50
SD 1.73 1.53 2.37
CV 0.93 1.12 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%22.73%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%68.18%
19.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
2—4.55%————4.55%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%22.73%9.09%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.45 1.77 -1.32
SD 0.80 1.51 1.73
CV 1.76 0.85 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—18.18%13.64%4.55%—40.91%
113.64%—4.55%4.55%——22.73%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total36.36%9.09%27.27%22.73%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.50 -0.32
SD 1.30 1.34 2.28
CV 1.10 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%4.55%——22.73%
113.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%———27.27%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%36.36%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.27 +0.18
SD 1.14 0.98 1.82
CV 0.79 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
1——18.18%13.64%4.55%9.09%45.45%
2—9.09%18.18%———27.27%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—13.64%45.45%18.18%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.68 -1.68
SD 0.76 1.36 1.76
CV 0.76 0.51 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—————4.55%
118.18%9.09%13.64%4.55%——45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
49.09%4.55%————13.64%
5+———————
Total45.45%22.73%18.18%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.00 +0.91
SD 1.19 1.11 1.72
CV 0.62 1.11 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
113.64%—9.09%4.55%——27.27%
29.09%—13.64%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
39.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%13.64%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.68 -0.09
SD 1.05 1.59 2.07
CV 0.66 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%50.00%
1—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
213.64%9.09%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%31.82%27.27%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.73 -0.82
SD 0.97 1.39 1.94
CV 1.07 0.80 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
14.55%—9.09%—4.55%—18.18%
24.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
3—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total13.64%40.91%27.27%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.55 +0.27
SD 1.50 1.06 1.75
CV 0.83 0.68 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
113.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
29.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%—————4.55%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total40.91%36.36%13.64%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 0.95 +1.09
SD 1.53 1.09 2.16
CV 0.75 1.14 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
19.09%4.55%————13.64%
218.18%13.64%————31.82%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
413.64%—————13.64%
5+—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
Total54.55%27.27%18.18%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 0.64 +1.77
SD 1.94 0.79 1.85
CV 0.81 1.24 —
Max 7 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 54 37.03 +16.97
2 Throttur Reykjavik 44 37.24 +6.76
3 KA Akureyri 41 34.66 +6.34
4 Thor Akureyri 38 32.07 +5.93
5 HK Kopavogur 31 27.49 +3.51

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IB Bolungarvik 10 19.39 -9.39
2 Fram Reykjavik 21 30.33 -9.33
3 Grotta 15 18.52 -3.52
4 KF Fjardabyggdar 31 34.03 -3.03
5 Selfoss 20 22.21 -2.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 8 Jul 17 – Sep 1 1 in 228
2 Throttur Reykjavik 6 May 9 – Jun 14 1 in 176
3 Thor Akureyri 5 May 16 – Jun 13 1 in 123
4 HK Kopavogur 3 Sep 4 – Sep 19 1 in 45
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 4 Aug 14 – Aug 27 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HK Kopavogur 5 May 23 – Jun 23 1 in 195
2 Thor Akureyri 3 Jun 21 – Jul 3 1 in 58
3 IB Bolungarvik 7 Jul 25 – Aug 29 1 in 25
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 16 – May 28 1 in 21
5 Throttur Reykjavik 2 Jul 13 – Jul 18 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 11 Jul 17 – Sep 19 1 in 14
2 IB Bolungarvik 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 12
3 Grindavik 5 Jul 3 – Jul 23 1 in 8
4 Throttur Reykjavik 6 May 9 – Jun 14 1 in 8
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 6 Aug 14 – Sep 15 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KF Fjardabyggdar 7 Jul 19 – Aug 22 1 in 83
2 IB Bolungarvik 17 Jun 6 – Sep 12 1 in 28
3 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jul 2 – Jul 29 1 in 11
4 HK Kopavogur 5 May 23 – Jun 23 1 in 10
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 Sep 12 – Sep 19 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Vikingur Olafsvik24.50%19.15%14.74%11.79%9.17%7.32%5.61%3.82%2.56%0.99%0.28%0.07%
Throttur Reykjavik24.34%18.50%15.37%12.17%9.51%7.38%5.63%3.56%2.24%0.99%0.22%0.09%
KA Akureyri13.21%12.90%13.85%13.49%12.30%10.79%8.93%6.95%4.60%1.98%0.85%0.15%
Thor Akureyri5.53%8.10%9.40%11.59%12.11%12.49%12.74%11.62%9.05%4.71%2.08%0.58%
Grindavik12.20%14.37%13.17%12.61%12.86%10.52%9.15%7.27%4.53%2.38%0.79%0.15%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur6.11%8.66%10.19%10.83%12.59%13.20%12.75%11.03%7.54%4.85%1.61%0.64%
KF Fjardabyggdar9.59%10.95%12.83%12.29%12.56%11.80%10.79%9.21%6.26%2.62%0.92%0.18%
HK Kopavogur1.27%2.05%3.19%4.91%6.77%9.43%11.93%16.09%18.52%14.19%8.16%3.49%
Fram Reykjavik3.10%4.91%6.55%8.61%9.54%11.95%13.84%14.78%13.86%7.87%3.80%1.19%
Selfoss0.11%0.36%0.39%1.06%1.66%3.06%4.79%8.38%14.96%26.02%23.83%15.38%
Grotta0.02%0.02%0.07%0.28%0.43%0.94%1.63%3.20%7.38%16.09%28.19%41.75%
IB Bolungarvik0.02%0.03%0.25%0.37%0.50%1.12%2.21%4.09%8.50%17.31%29.27%36.33%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.94%
Clear Edge
51.52%15.91%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge
120 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
066.61400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.35 goals
Neutral
-2+0.55+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.9
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
Vikingur Olafsvik, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.45/gm
Comfortable
00.160.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.6 * Some Luck: 4.6 to 6.89 * Lucky: 6.89 to 9.19 * Wild Swing: 9.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.59 * Close: 1.59 to 2.38 * Off: 2.38 to 3.18 * Way Off: 3.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.64 * A Surprise: 0.64 to 1.03 * Several Surprises: 1.03 to 1.42 * Many Surprises: 1.42 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.12 points
Lucky
05.7414
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.994
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.91%
Vikingur Olafsvik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.12%
IB Bolungarvik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.82
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.57
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.37
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.03
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.34
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.113
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Vikingur Olafsvik 43.65% 56.00% 0.35%
Throttur Reykjavik 42.84% 56.85% 0.31%
Grindavik 26.57% 72.49% 0.94%
KA Akureyri 26.11% 72.89% 1.00%
KF Fjardabyggdar 20.54% 78.36% 1.10%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 14.77% 82.98% 2.25%
Thor Akureyri 13.63% 83.71% 2.66%
Fram Reykjavik 8.01% 87.00% 4.99%
HK Kopavogur 3.32% 85.03% 11.65%
Selfoss 0.47% 60.32% 39.21%
IB Bolungarvik 0.05% 34.35% 65.60%
Grotta 0.04% 30.02% 69.94%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2015-05-08 HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1101 1217 25.4% 28.2% 46.4% -13.5 0
2015-05-08 @ Grotta W 2-0 1217 1101 46.4% 28.2% 25.4% +13.5 3
2015-05-09 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1228 1231 40.4% 28.8% 30.8% -0.3 1
2015-05-09 @ KA Akureyri D 3-3 1231 1228 30.8% 28.8% 40.4% +0.3 1
2015-05-09 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1224 1237 38.8% 28.9% 32.3% +8.6 3
2015-05-09 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1237 1224 32.3% 28.9% 38.8% -8.6 0
2015-05-09 KF Fjardabyggdar L 1-3 1266 1229 45.7% 28.3% 26.0% -18.2 0
2015-05-09 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1229 1266 26.0% 28.3% 45.7% +18.2 3
2015-05-09 Selfoss L 0-2 1158 1133 44.2% 28.4% 27.4% -20.4 0
2015-05-09 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-0 1133 1158 27.4% 28.4% 44.2% +20.4 3
2015-05-09 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1210 1211 40.6% 28.8% 30.6% +19.1 3
2015-05-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 1211 1210 30.6% 28.8% 40.6% -19.1 0
2015-05-15 Grindavik W 1-0 1229 1248 38.1% 28.9% 33.0% +8.7 3
2015-05-15 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1248 1229 33.0% 28.9% 38.1% -8.7 0
2015-05-15 HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1153 1230 30.1% 28.7% 41.2% -8.2 3
2015-05-15 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1230 1153 41.2% 28.7% 30.1% +8.2 6
2015-05-16 Fram Reykjavik W 4-3 1192 1231 35.1% 28.9% 35.9% +8.1 3
2015-05-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 3-4 1231 1192 35.9% 28.9% 35.1% -8.1 1
2015-05-16 IB Bolungarvik W 5-0 1229 1138 52.4% 27.0% 20.6% +26.3 6
2015-05-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-5 1138 1229 20.6% 27.0% 52.4% -26.3 0
2015-05-16 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1247 1228 43.4% 28.5% 28.1% -10.7 3
2015-05-16 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 1-0 1228 1247 28.1% 28.5% 43.4% +10.7 4
2015-05-16 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1087 1232 22.4% 27.5% 50.0% +1.6 1
2015-05-16 @ Grotta D 0-0 1232 1087 50.0% 27.5% 22.4% -1.6 4
2015-05-23 Grotta W 2-0 1239 1089 59.1% 25.0% 16.0% +8.8 3
2015-05-23 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1089 1239 16.0% 25.0% 59.1% -8.8 1
2015-05-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1239 1238 40.9% 28.7% 30.3% +13.4 7
2015-05-23 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1238 1239 30.3% 28.7% 40.9% -13.4 3
2015-05-23 KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-1 1223 1236 38.9% 28.9% 32.2% -9.8 1
2015-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1236 1223 32.2% 28.9% 38.9% +9.8 6
2015-05-23 Selfoss W 1-0 1231 1145 51.8% 27.1% 21.1% +6.1 7
2015-05-23 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1145 1231 21.1% 27.1% 51.8% -6.1 3
2015-05-23 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1112 1200 28.7% 28.6% 42.7% -12.8 0
2015-05-23 @ IB Bolungarvik W 3-1 1200 1112 42.7% 28.6% 28.7% +12.8 6
2015-05-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 1238 1255 38.5% 28.9% 32.6% -26.7 6
2015-05-23 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1255 1238 32.6% 28.9% 38.5% +26.7 9
2015-05-28 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1224 1213 42.2% 28.6% 29.1% +7.5 6
2015-05-28 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1213 1224 29.1% 28.6% 42.2% -7.5 1
2015-05-29 Grindavik D 1-1 1139 1248 26.3% 28.3% 45.4% +1.0 4
2015-05-29 @ Selfoss D 1-1 1248 1139 45.4% 28.3% 26.3% -1.0 4
2015-05-29 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1282 1237 46.8% 28.1% 25.1% +13.3 12
2015-05-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1237 1282 25.1% 28.1% 46.8% -13.3 7
2015-05-30 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1099 1212 25.8% 28.2% 46.0% +10.5 3
2015-05-30 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1212 1099 46.0% 28.2% 25.8% -10.5 6
2015-05-30 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1080 1252 19.9% 26.8% 53.3% -5.8 1
2015-05-30 @ Grotta W 1-0 1252 1080 53.3% 26.8% 19.9% +5.8 10
2015-05-30 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-0 1212 1246 36.0% 28.9% 35.1% +17.2 9
2015-05-30 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1246 1212 35.1% 28.9% 36.0% -17.2 6
2015-06-06 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1229 1232 40.4% 28.8% 30.8% +15.6 9
2015-06-06 @ KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-2 1232 1229 30.8% 28.8% 40.4% -15.6 6
2015-06-06 IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1223 1109 55.1% 26.3% 18.6% +5.1 10
2015-06-06 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1109 1223 18.6% 26.3% 55.1% -5.1 3
2015-06-06 Selfoss D 2-2 1258 1140 55.6% 26.1% 18.3% -1.5 11
2015-06-06 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1140 1258 18.3% 26.1% 55.6% +1.5 5
2015-06-07 Grotta W 4-1 1206 1074 57.1% 25.7% 17.3% +11.7 4
2015-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1074 1206 17.3% 25.7% 57.1% -11.7 1
2015-06-07 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1201 1230 36.8% 28.9% 34.3% -8.4 6
2015-06-07 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1230 1201 34.3% 28.9% 36.8% +8.4 12
2015-06-08 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1247 1295 34.0% 28.9% 37.1% -8.9 4
2015-06-08 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1295 1247 37.1% 28.9% 34.0% +8.9 15
2015-06-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1142 1218 30.2% 28.7% 41.0% +9.7 8
2015-06-11 @ Selfoss L 1-2 1218 1142 41.0% 28.7% 30.2% -9.6 4
2015-06-13 Grindavik L 1-3 1104 1238 23.5% 27.8% 48.7% -10.9 3
2015-06-13 @ IB Bolungarvik W 3-1 1238 1104 48.7% 27.8% 23.5% +10.9 7
2015-06-13 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1238 1216 43.8% 28.5% 27.7% +7.2 15
2015-06-13 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1216 1238 27.7% 28.5% 43.8% -7.2 6
2015-06-13 KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-3 1063 1245 19.1% 26.5% 54.5% -15.2 1
2015-06-13 @ Grotta W 3-0 1245 1063 54.5% 26.5% 19.1% +15.2 12
2015-06-13 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1193 1228 35.7% 28.9% 35.3% -17.4 6
2015-06-13 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1228 1193 35.3% 28.9% 35.7% +17.4 13
2015-06-14 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1304 1257 47.1% 28.1% 24.9% +6.6 18
2015-06-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1257 1304 24.9% 28.1% 47.1% -6.6 11
2015-06-19 Grotta W 4-0 1209 1047 60.3% 24.5% 15.2% +15.9 9
2015-06-19 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1047 1209 15.2% 24.5% 60.3% -15.9 1
2015-06-21 IB Bolungarvik W 2-0 1250 1093 59.8% 24.7% 15.5% +8.6 14
2015-06-21 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1093 1250 15.5% 24.7% 59.8% -8.6 3
2015-06-21 Selfoss W 2-0 1260 1151 54.5% 26.4% 19.0% +10.5 15
2015-06-21 @ KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-2 1151 1260 19.0% 26.4% 54.5% -10.5 8
2015-06-21 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1246 1245 40.8% 28.7% 30.4% +7.7 16
2015-06-21 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1245 1246 30.4% 28.7% 40.8% -7.7 15
2015-06-22 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1208 1310 27.0% 28.4% 44.6% +10.9 7
2015-06-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1310 1208 44.6% 28.4% 27.0% -10.9 18
2015-06-23 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1249 1175 50.4% 27.5% 22.2% +12.0 10
2015-06-23 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1175 1249 22.2% 27.5% 50.4% -12.0 6
2015-06-25 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1141 1225 29.2% 28.7% 42.1% -8.0 8
2015-06-25 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1225 1141 42.1% 28.7% 29.2% +8.0 12
2015-06-27 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1085 1219 23.5% 27.8% 48.7% -6.3 3
2015-06-27 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1219 1085 48.7% 27.8% 23.5% +6.3 10
2015-06-27 Grindavik W 2-0 1254 1261 39.7% 28.8% 31.4% +15.9 19
2015-06-27 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1261 1254 31.4% 28.8% 39.7% -15.9 10
2015-06-27 Grotta L 0-1 1238 1031 64.8% 22.6% 12.6% -14.8 15
2015-06-27 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1031 1238 12.6% 22.6% 64.8% +14.8 4
2015-06-27 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1163 1259 27.8% 28.5% 43.6% +9.6 9
2015-06-27 @ HK Kopavogur L 2-3 1259 1163 43.6% 28.5% 27.8% -9.6 14
2015-06-27 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1300 1270 44.7% 28.4% 26.9% +7.0 21
2015-06-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1270 1300 26.9% 28.4% 44.7% -7.0 15
2015-07-02 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1225 1173 47.7% 28.0% 24.3% -10.9 10
2015-07-02 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1173 1225 24.3% 28.0% 47.7% +10.9 12
2015-07-02 Selfoss D 0-0 1046 1133 28.9% 28.6% 42.5% +0.8 5
2015-07-02 @ Grotta D 0-0 1133 1046 42.5% 28.6% 28.9% -0.8 9
2015-07-02 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1233 1307 30.5% 28.8% 40.8% -7.8 12
2015-07-02 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1307 1233 40.8% 28.8% 30.5% +7.8 24
2015-07-02 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1249 1269 37.9% 28.9% 33.2% -0.2 15
2015-07-02 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1269 1249 33.2% 28.9% 37.9% +0.2 20
2015-07-03 Grindavik L 2-3 1223 1245 37.6% 28.9% 33.5% -8.6 15
2015-07-03 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1245 1223 33.5% 28.9% 37.6% +8.6 13
2015-07-04 IB Bolungarvik W 3-0 1263 1078 62.7% 23.5% 13.8% +11.0 18
2015-07-04 @ KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-3 1078 1263 13.8% 23.5% 62.7% -11.0 3
2015-07-07 Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1270 1214 48.1% 27.9% 24.0% +24.4 23
2015-07-07 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-4 1214 1270 24.0% 27.9% 48.1% -24.4 10
2015-07-07 Grotta W 1-0 1314 1047 70.4% 19.9% 9.8% +2.7 27
2015-07-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1047 1314 9.8% 19.9% 70.4% -2.7 5
2015-07-07 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1067 1225 21.2% 27.2% 51.6% +1.2 4
2015-07-07 @ IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1225 1067 51.6% 27.2% 21.2% -1.2 13
2015-07-07 KF Fjardabyggdar L 1-3 1184 1274 28.4% 28.6% 43.0% -12.7 12
2015-07-07 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1274 1184 43.0% 28.6% 28.4% +12.7 21
2015-07-07 Selfoss W 2-1 1214 1132 51.4% 27.2% 21.4% +5.8 18
2015-07-07 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1132 1214 21.4% 27.2% 51.4% -5.8 9
2015-07-11 Grindavik D 1-1 1190 1254 31.8% 28.8% 39.3% +0.4 11
2015-07-11 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1254 1190 39.3% 28.8% 31.8% -0.4 14
2015-07-11 IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1044 1068 37.4% 28.9% 33.7% +8.3 8
2015-07-11 @ Grotta L 1-2 1068 1044 33.7% 28.9% 37.4% -8.4 4
2015-07-11 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1249 1220 44.6% 28.4% 27.0% +7.5 18
2015-07-11 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1220 1249 27.0% 28.4% 44.6% -7.5 18
2015-07-11 Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1287 1294 39.8% 28.8% 31.4% +8.4 24
2015-07-11 @ KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-1 1294 1287 31.4% 28.8% 39.8% -8.4 23
2015-07-13 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1224 1171 47.8% 28.0% 24.3% +13.0 16
2015-07-13 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1171 1224 24.3% 28.0% 47.8% -13.0 12
2015-07-13 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1126 1317 18.4% 26.2% 55.5% +24.6 12
2015-07-13 @ Selfoss L 0-2 1317 1126 55.5% 26.2% 18.4% -24.6 27
2015-07-14 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1253 1256 40.4% 28.8% 30.9% +7.8 17
2015-07-14 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1256 1253 30.9% 28.8% 40.4% -7.8 18
2015-07-17 Grotta W 1-0 1158 1053 54.2% 26.5% 19.3% +5.6 15
2015-07-17 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1053 1158 19.3% 26.5% 54.2% -5.6 8
2015-07-17 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1237 1286 33.8% 28.9% 37.2% -16.8 16
2015-07-17 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1286 1237 37.2% 28.9% 33.8% +16.8 26
2015-07-18 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1190 1248 32.6% 28.9% 38.5% +0.3 12
2015-07-18 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1248 1190 38.5% 28.9% 32.6% -0.3 19
2015-07-18 Selfoss D 2-2 1060 1151 28.4% 28.6% 43.0% +0.5 5
2015-07-18 @ IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1151 1060 43.0% 28.6% 28.4% -0.5 13
2015-07-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1213 1292 29.7% 28.7% 41.6% +9.7 21
2015-07-18 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1292 1213 41.6% 28.7% 29.7% -9.8 27
2015-07-19 Grindavik L 0-3 1296 1261 45.4% 28.3% 26.3% -30.3 24
2015-07-19 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 3-0 1261 1296 26.3% 28.3% 45.4% +30.3 20
2015-07-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1291 1220 50.1% 27.5% 22.4% -1.1 21
2015-07-23 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1220 1291 22.4% 27.5% 50.1% +1.1 17
2015-07-23 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1248 1265 38.4% 28.9% 32.8% +8.2 22
2015-07-23 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1265 1248 32.8% 28.9% 38.4% -8.2 24
2015-07-23 Selfoss W 4-0 1164 1150 42.6% 28.6% 28.8% +28.2 18
2015-07-23 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-4 1150 1164 28.8% 28.6% 42.6% -28.2 13
2015-07-24 Grotta W 4-0 1302 1047 69.3% 20.4% 10.3% +10.3 29
2015-07-24 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-4 1047 1302 10.3% 20.4% 69.3% -10.3 8
2015-07-25 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1191 1222 36.3% 28.9% 34.8% -8.3 12
2015-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1222 1191 34.8% 28.9% 36.3% +8.4 24
2015-07-25 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 1061 1283 16.1% 25.0% 58.9% -10.9 5
2015-07-25 @ IB Bolungarvik W 4-1 1283 1061 58.9% 25.0% 16.1% +10.9 30
2015-07-29 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1257 1182 50.5% 27.4% 22.1% -0.9 25
2015-07-29 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 3-3 1182 1257 22.1% 27.4% 50.5% +0.9 13
2015-07-29 Grindavik W 1-0 1037 1290 14.1% 23.8% 62.2% +14.3 11
2015-07-29 @ Grotta L 0-1 1290 1037 62.2% 23.8% 14.1% -14.3 21
2015-07-29 HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1294 1192 53.7% 26.7% 19.6% +20.4 33
2015-07-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-4 1192 1294 19.6% 26.7% 53.7% -20.4 18
2015-07-29 IB Bolungarvik W 6-1 1231 1050 62.3% 23.7% 14.0% +14.9 27
2015-07-29 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-6 1050 1231 14.0% 23.7% 62.3% -14.9 5
2015-07-29 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1122 1313 18.4% 26.2% 55.4% -10.1 13
2015-07-29 @ Selfoss W 2-0 1313 1122 55.4% 26.2% 18.4% +10.2 32
2015-08-04 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1221 1256 35.8% 28.9% 35.3% +8.6 20
2015-08-04 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1256 1221 35.3% 28.9% 35.8% -8.6 22
2015-08-06 Selfoss W 5-0 1276 1112 60.6% 24.4% 15.0% +19.4 24
2015-08-06 @ Grindavik L 0-5 1112 1276 15.0% 24.4% 60.6% -19.4 13
2015-08-07 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1183 1230 34.2% 28.9% 36.9% +25.9 16
2015-08-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1230 1183 36.9% 28.9% 34.2% -25.9 20
2015-08-07 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1256 1246 42.2% 28.6% 29.1% -0.5 26
2015-08-07 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 2-2 1246 1256 29.1% 28.6% 42.2% +0.5 28
2015-08-08 Grotta W 1-0 1248 1051 63.8% 23.1% 13.1% +3.8 25
2015-08-08 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1051 1248 13.1% 23.1% 63.8% -3.8 11
2015-08-08 IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1172 1035 57.6% 25.5% 16.9% +4.7 21
2015-08-08 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1035 1172 16.9% 25.5% 57.6% -4.7 5
2015-08-08 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1323 1314 42.0% 28.7% 29.4% +7.1 35
2015-08-08 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-3 1314 1323 29.4% 28.7% 42.0% -7.1 33
2015-08-14 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1047 1209 20.8% 27.1% 52.1% +1.8 12
2015-08-14 @ Grotta D 0-0 1209 1047 52.1% 27.1% 20.8% -1.8 17
2015-08-14 Grindavik W 2-0 1307 1295 42.3% 28.6% 29.0% +15.0 36
2015-08-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1295 1307 29.0% 28.6% 42.3% -15.0 24
2015-08-14 HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1246 1176 49.9% 27.6% 22.5% -1.6 29
2015-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1176 1246 22.5% 27.6% 49.9% +1.6 22
2015-08-14 KA Akureyri L 0-4 1093 1251 21.1% 27.2% 51.7% -21.8 13
2015-08-14 @ Selfoss W 4-0 1251 1093 51.7% 27.2% 21.1% +21.8 28
2015-08-14 KF Fjardabyggdar W 3-1 1204 1256 33.4% 28.9% 37.7% +15.7 23
2015-08-14 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1256 1204 37.7% 28.9% 33.4% -15.7 26
2015-08-14 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-5 1030 1330 11.6% 21.8% 66.6% -9.9 5
2015-08-14 @ IB Bolungarvik W 5-1 1330 1030 66.6% 21.8% 11.6% +9.9 38
2015-08-18 Grotta L 2-3 1240 1049 63.3% 23.3% 13.4% -13.0 26
2015-08-18 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 3-2 1049 1240 13.4% 23.3% 63.3% +13.0 15
2015-08-18 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1340 1178 60.4% 24.5% 15.2% +12.1 41
2015-08-18 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-3 1178 1340 15.2% 24.5% 60.4% -12.2 22
2015-08-18 IB Bolungarvik W 1-0 1281 1020 69.7% 20.2% 10.1% +2.8 27
2015-08-18 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1020 1281 10.1% 20.2% 69.7% -2.8 5
2015-08-18 Selfoss L 1-2 1207 1071 57.6% 25.5% 16.9% -12.7 17
2015-08-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1071 1207 16.9% 25.5% 57.6% +12.7 16
2015-08-18 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1219 1244 37.2% 28.9% 33.8% +8.9 26
2015-08-18 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1244 1219 33.8% 28.9% 37.2% -8.9 29
2015-08-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-1 1273 1322 33.9% 28.9% 37.2% +22.0 31
2015-08-18 @ KA Akureyri L 1-4 1322 1273 37.2% 28.9% 33.9% -22.0 36
2015-08-22 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1300 1195 54.1% 26.5% 19.3% -1.4 37
2015-08-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1195 1300 19.3% 26.5% 54.1% +1.4 18
2015-08-22 Grindavik L 0-2 1166 1283 25.2% 28.1% 46.6% -13.4 22
2015-08-22 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1283 1166 46.6% 28.1% 25.2% +13.4 30
2015-08-22 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1062 1228 20.4% 26.9% 52.6% -9.7 15
2015-08-22 @ Grotta W 3-1 1228 1062 52.6% 26.9% 20.4% +9.7 29
2015-08-22 KA Akureyri L 0-4 1017 1295 12.7% 22.7% 64.5% -13.2 5
2015-08-22 @ IB Bolungarvik W 4-0 1295 1017 64.5% 22.7% 12.7% +13.2 34
2015-08-22 KF Fjardabyggdar D 2-2 1083 1227 22.6% 27.6% 49.9% +1.0 17
2015-08-22 @ Selfoss D 2-2 1227 1083 49.9% 27.6% 22.6% -1.0 27
2015-08-22 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1236 1352 25.4% 28.1% 46.5% -6.7 29
2015-08-22 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1352 1236 46.5% 28.1% 25.4% +6.7 44
2015-08-27 Selfoss W 3-0 1238 1084 59.5% 24.8% 15.7% +12.6 32
2015-08-27 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1084 1238 15.7% 24.8% 59.5% -12.6 17
2015-08-29 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1308 1152 59.7% 24.7% 15.5% +12.5 37
2015-08-29 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1152 1308 15.5% 24.7% 59.7% -12.5 22
2015-08-29 IB Bolungarvik W 3-1 1196 1004 63.3% 23.3% 13.4% +6.4 21
2015-08-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1004 1196 13.4% 23.3% 63.3% -6.4 5
2015-08-29 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1052 1229 19.6% 26.6% 53.8% -5.7 15
2015-08-29 @ Grotta W 1-0 1229 1052 53.8% 26.6% 19.6% +5.7 32
2015-08-29 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1226 1299 30.7% 28.8% 40.6% +10.1 30
2015-08-29 @ KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-1 1299 1226 40.6% 28.8% 30.7% -10.1 37
2015-09-01 Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-7 1297 1359 32.0% 28.8% 39.1% -26.1 30
2015-09-01 @ Grindavik W 7-2 1359 1297 39.1% 28.8% 32.0% +26.1 47
2015-09-04 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1140 1202 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +9.9 25
2015-09-04 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1202 1140 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -9.9 21
2015-09-05 Grotta W 2-0 1072 1047 44.2% 28.4% 27.4% +14.3 20
2015-09-05 @ Selfoss L 0-2 1047 1072 27.4% 28.4% 44.2% -14.3 15
2015-09-05 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1385 1321 49.2% 27.7% 23.1% -1.5 48
2015-09-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1321 1385 23.1% 27.7% 49.2% +1.5 38
2015-09-05 KF Fjardabyggdar D 2-2 998 1236 15.0% 24.4% 60.6% +1.8 6
2015-09-05 @ IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1236 998 60.6% 24.4% 15.0% -1.8 31
2015-09-05 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1271 1235 45.6% 28.3% 26.1% -10.5 30
2015-09-05 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1235 1271 26.1% 28.3% 45.6% +10.5 35
2015-09-12 Grindavik L 1-3 1322 1260 49.0% 27.7% 23.3% -19.2 38
2015-09-12 @ KA Akureyri W 3-1 1260 1322 23.3% 27.7% 49.0% +19.2 33
2015-09-12 HK Kopavogur L 0-4 1234 1150 51.7% 27.2% 21.1% -44.0 31
2015-09-12 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 4-0 1150 1234 21.1% 27.2% 51.7% +44.0 28
2015-09-12 IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1251 1000 68.9% 20.6% 10.5% -2.4 33
2015-09-12 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1000 1251 10.5% 20.6% 68.9% +2.4 7
2015-09-12 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1086 1245 21.1% 27.2% 51.7% -5.4 20
2015-09-12 @ Selfoss W 3-2 1245 1086 51.7% 27.2% 21.1% +5.5 38
2015-09-12 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-5 1032 1288 13.9% 23.7% 62.4% -17.9 15
2015-09-12 @ Grotta W 5-0 1288 1032 62.4% 23.7% 13.9% +17.9 40
2015-09-12 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-4 1192 1383 18.4% 26.2% 55.5% -19.2 21
2015-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1383 1192 55.5% 26.2% 18.4% +19.2 51
2015-09-15 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1306 1248 48.4% 27.8% 23.7% -1.3 41
2015-09-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1248 1306 23.7% 27.8% 48.4% +1.3 34
2015-09-19 Fram Reykjavik W 7-2 1279 1173 54.2% 26.5% 19.2% +17.2 36
2015-09-19 @ Grindavik L 2-7 1173 1279 19.2% 26.5% 54.2% -17.1 21
2015-09-19 Grotta W 2-1 1002 1014 39.1% 28.8% 32.1% +8.1 10
2015-09-19 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1014 1002 32.1% 28.8% 39.1% -8.1 15
2015-09-19 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1194 1250 32.9% 28.9% 38.2% +18.3 31
2015-09-19 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1250 1194 38.2% 28.9% 32.9% -18.3 34
2015-09-19 KA Akureyri L 0-3 1250 1303 33.3% 28.9% 37.8% -24.1 38
2015-09-19 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1303 1250 37.8% 28.9% 33.3% +24.1 41
2015-09-19 KF Fjardabyggdar W 6-2 1403 1190 65.4% 22.4% 12.3% +8.9 54
2015-09-19 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-6 1190 1403 12.3% 22.4% 65.4% -9.0 31
2015-09-19 Selfoss W 1-0 1305 1081 66.5% 21.8% 11.7% +3.4 44
2015-09-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1081 1305 11.7% 21.8% 66.5% -3.4 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2015-06-27 12.60% Grotta 1031 1 @ Thor Akureyri 1238 0
2 2015-08-18 13.42% Grotta 1049 3 @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1240 2
3 2015-07-29 14.07% @ Grotta 1037 1 Grindavik 1290 0
4 2015-08-18 16.90% Selfoss 1071 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1207 1
5 2015-07-13 18.39% @ Selfoss 1126 2 Throttur Reykjavik 1317 0
6 2015-09-12 21.14% HK Kopavogur 1150 4 @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1234 0
7 2015-09-12 23.30% Grindavik 1260 3 @ KA Akureyri 1322 1
8 2015-07-02 24.34% HK Kopavogur 1173 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1225 1
9 2015-05-30 25.77% @ IB Bolungarvik 1099 2 HK Kopavogur 1212 1
10 2015-05-09 26.01% KF Fjardabyggdar 1229 3 @ Grindavik 1266 1
11 2015-09-05 26.11% Thor Akureyri 1235 2 @ Grindavik 1271 1
12 2015-07-19 26.29% Grindavik 1261 3 @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1296 0
13 2015-06-22 26.97% @ Fram Reykjavik 1208 1 Throttur Reykjavik 1310 0
14 2015-05-09 27.36% Selfoss 1133 2 @ IB Bolungarvik 1158 0
15 2015-06-27 27.84% @ HK Kopavogur 1163 3 KA Akureyri 1259 2
16 2015-05-16 28.11% KA Akureyri 1228 1 @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1247 0
17 2015-07-18 29.72% @ Thor Akureyri 1213 2 Throttur Reykjavik 1292 1
18 2015-06-11 30.22% @ Selfoss 1142 2 Fram Reykjavik 1218 1
19 2015-08-29 30.66% @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1226 1 Throttur Reykjavik 1299 0
20 2015-09-04 31.98% @ HK Kopavogur 1140 1 Fram Reykjavik 1202 0
21 2015-05-23 32.23% KF Fjardabyggdar 1236 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1223 0
22 2015-05-23 32.65% Throttur Reykjavik 1255 3 @ HK Kopavogur 1238 0
23 2015-09-19 32.88% @ HK Kopavogur 1194 2 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1250 0
24 2015-08-14 33.44% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1204 3 KF Fjardabyggdar 1256 1
25 2015-07-03 33.46% Grindavik 1245 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1223 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-09-12 44.01 HK Kopavogur 4 1150 21.14% @ KF Fjardabyggdar 0 1234 51.71% 27.16%
2 2015-07-19 30.31 Grindavik 3 1261 26.29% @ KF Fjardabyggdar 0 1296 45.40% 28.30%
3 2015-07-23 28.18 @ HK Kopavogur 4 1164 42.61% Selfoss 0 1150 28.78% 28.61%
4 2015-05-23 26.70 Throttur Reykjavik 3 1255 32.65% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1238 38.47% 28.88%
5 2015-05-16 26.30 @ Throttur Reykjavik 5 1229 52.44% IB Bolungarvik 0 1138 20.58% 26.98%
6 2015-09-01 26.09 Vikingur Olafsvik 7 1359 39.11% @ Grindavik 2 1297 32.04% 28.85%
7 2015-08-07 25.90 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1183 34.18% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1230 36.90% 28.92%
8 2015-07-13 24.57 @ Selfoss 2 1126 18.39% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1317 55.45% 26.16%
9 2015-07-07 24.37 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 4 1270 48.11% Fram Reykjavik 0 1214 24.01% 27.89%
10 2015-09-19 24.07 KA Akureyri 3 1303 37.78% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1250 33.32% 28.90%
11 2015-08-18 21.97 @ KA Akureyri 4 1273 33.89% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1322 37.20% 28.91%
12 2015-08-14 21.83 KA Akureyri 4 1251 51.74% @ Selfoss 0 1093 21.11% 27.15%
13 2015-05-09 20.44 Selfoss 2 1133 27.36% @ IB Bolungarvik 0 1158 44.19% 28.45%
14 2015-07-29 20.44 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1294 53.72% HK Kopavogur 0 1192 19.63% 26.65%
15 2015-08-06 19.41 @ Grindavik 5 1276 60.56% Selfoss 0 1112 15.03% 24.41%
16 2015-09-12 19.22 Vikingur Olafsvik 4 1383 55.48% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1192 18.37% 26.16%
17 2015-09-12 19.21 Grindavik 3 1260 23.30% @ KA Akureyri 1 1322 48.96% 27.73%
18 2015-05-09 19.07 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1210 40.61% Thor Akureyri 1 1211 30.62% 28.77%
19 2015-09-19 18.30 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1194 32.88% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1250 38.23% 28.89%
20 2015-05-09 18.18 KF Fjardabyggdar 3 1229 26.01% @ Grindavik 1 1266 45.74% 28.26%
21 2015-09-12 17.92 Throttur Reykjavik 5 1288 62.39% @ Grotta 0 1032 13.93% 23.67%
22 2015-06-13 17.42 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1228 35.34% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1193 35.73% 28.93%
23 2015-05-30 17.20 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1212 35.99% KF Fjardabyggdar 0 1246 35.08% 28.93%
24 2015-09-19 17.15 @ Grindavik 7 1279 54.24% Fram Reykjavik 2 1173 19.25% 26.51%
25 2015-07-17 16.76 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1286 37.25% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1237 33.84% 28.91%