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2012 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

Thor Akureyri

50 pts

Vikingur Olafsvik · 42 pts

Relegated

IR Reykjavik

14 pts

IF Hottur · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Thor Akureyri

12.96 points above expected

50 points · 37.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IF Hottur

13.75 points below expected

21 points · 34.75 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri Promoted 22 16 2 4 50 40 20 +20 37.04 +12.96
2 Vikingur Olafsvik Promoted 22 13 3 6 42 36 21 +15 34.09 +7.91
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 9 6 7 33 34 26 +8 25.05 +7.95
4 KA Akureyri 22 9 6 7 33 34 30 +4 27.20 +5.80
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 22 9 6 7 33 23 25 -2 32.63 +0.37
6 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 8 7 7 31 34 31 +3 33.17 -2.17
7 Fjolnir 22 7 8 7 29 39 26 +13 32.52 -3.52
8 Tindastoll 22 8 3 11 27 34 42 -8 35.47 -8.47
9 IB Bolungarvik 22 6 8 8 26 31 37 -6 24.15 +1.85
10 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 6 7 9 25 33 36 -3 28.31 -3.31
11 IF Hottur Relegated 22 5 6 11 21 30 41 -11 34.75 -13.75
12 IR Reykjavik Relegated 22 4 2 16 14 19 52 -33 21.91 -7.91

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Thor Akureyri 1197 50 37.04 +12.96 98.8% 14 27 33 37 41 47 58
Vikingur Olafsvik 1155 42 34.09 +7.91 91.4% 13 24 30 34 38 44 57
Vikingur Reykjavik 1127 31 33.17 -2.17 39.5% 12 23 29 33 37 43 56
Fjolnir 1093 29 32.52 -3.52 31.5% 9 22 28 32 37 43 55
Throttur Reykjavik 1088 33 25.05 +7.95 91.9% 7 15 21 25 29 35 52
IF Hottur 1082 21 34.75 -13.75 1.3% 13 25 31 35 39 45 59
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1080 33 32.63 +0.37 56.0% 10 23 28 33 37 43 54
Tindastoll 1078 27 35.47 -8.47 9.8% 10 25 31 35 40 45 58
KA Akureyri 1068 33 27.20 +5.80 85.3% 6 17 23 27 31 38 50
Leiknir Reykjavik 1059 25 28.31 -3.31 32.8% 9 18 24 28 32 39 51
IB Bolungarvik 1018 26 24.15 +1.85 65.8% 3 15 20 24 28 34 48
IR Reykjavik 907 14 21.91 -7.91 9.4% 4 13 18 22 26 32 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FJO HH IB IH IR KA LR TA TR TIN VO VR
Fjolnir —
1-0-1
2.81
0-2-0
3.39
0-1-1
2.69
2-0-0
3.40
1-0-1
3.19
1-1-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
3.42
1-0-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.67
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
2.73
 —
1-1-0
3.40
0-2-0
2.54
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-1
3.19
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.57
0-1-1
3.58
2-0-0
2.32
0-0-2
2.70
1-0-1
2.68
IB Bolungarvik
0-2-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.15
 —
1-1-0
1.89
2-0-0
3.07
0-2-0
2.42
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-2
1.79
1-1-0
2.59
1-0-1
1.78
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
2.03
IF Hottur
1-1-0
2.85
0-2-0
3.01
0-1-1
3.68
 —
1-0-1
3.85
1-0-1
3.33
0-0-2
3.35
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
3.76
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
3.02
1-1-0
2.80
IR Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
1.72
 —
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
1.56
0-1-1
2.43
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
1.95
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.35
1-1-0
2.35
0-2-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
3.00
 —
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.99
0-2-0
2.04
1-0-1
2.22
1-1-0
2.18
Leiknir Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
2.19
1-0-1
3.58
1-0-1
2.86
 —
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
3.03
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.15
0-2-0
2.26
Thor Akureyri
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
4.03
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
3.25
 —
1-0-1
3.76
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
2.89
1-0-1
3.16
Throttur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.12
1-1-0
1.97
0-1-1
2.95
0-1-1
1.81
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.51
1-0-1
1.81
 —
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
2.04
1-0-1
2.13
Tindastoll
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
3.22
1-0-1
3.79
2-0-0
2.72
1-0-1
3.98
0-2-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.35
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
3.49
 —
0-0-2
3.11
1-0-1
3.06
Vikingur Olafsvik
1-1-0
2.90
2-0-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
2.51
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.33
0-1-1
3.40
0-0-2
2.65
1-0-1
3.51
2-0-0
2.44
 —
0-1-1
3.01
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
2.73
2-0-0
3.61
0-1-1
3.36
0-2-0
3.29
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
3.43
1-0-1
2.48
1-1-0
2.53
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.43 +10.1
Allowed 0.81 -8.7
Differential 0.79 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.85%7.95%4.55%2.27%1.89%1.14%27.65%
17.95%6.06%9.47%3.79%0.76%1.89%29.92%
24.55%9.47%6.82%1.89%0.38%1.52%24.62%
32.27%3.79%1.89%1.52%0.38%—9.85%
41.89%0.76%0.38%0.38%——3.41%
5+1.14%1.89%1.52%———4.55%
Total27.65%29.92%24.62%9.85%3.41%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 1.99
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%————22.73%
1—9.09%18.18%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total31.82%27.27%31.82%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.18 +0.59
SD 1.66 1.01 1.92
CV 0.94 0.85 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—13.64%4.55%4.55%—36.36%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
213.64%9.09%9.09%———31.82%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total45.45%13.64%27.27%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.14 -0.09
SD 0.95 1.25 1.80
CV 0.91 1.10 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%——9.09%4.55%—31.82%
14.55%4.55%13.64%———22.73%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.68 -0.27
SD 1.37 1.43 1.86
CV 0.97 0.85 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%9.09%—4.55%——36.36%
1——9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%27.27%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total27.27%22.73%18.18%18.18%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.86 -0.50
SD 1.50 1.81 2.15
CV 1.10 0.97 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%50.00%
1——13.64%——13.64%27.27%
2—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total4.55%27.27%36.36%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.36 -1.50
SD 1.13 1.53 1.95
CV 1.30 0.65 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
113.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%31.82%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.36 +0.18
SD 1.34 1.14 1.76
CV 0.86 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%———13.64%
14.55%13.64%22.73%4.55%—4.55%50.00%
24.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
3——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%40.91%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.64 -0.14
SD 1.30 1.26 1.73
CV 0.87 0.77 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
118.18%—————18.18%
24.55%27.27%4.55%4.55%——40.91%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total31.82%50.00%13.64%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.91 +0.91
SD 1.30 0.81 1.44
CV 0.71 0.89 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
113.64%9.09%4.55%13.64%——40.91%
2—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%36.36%13.64%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.18 +0.36
SD 1.50 1.10 1.94
CV 0.97 0.93 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%9.09%—4.55%9.09%45.45%
1—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
2—9.09%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+——9.09%———9.09%
Total9.09%40.91%31.82%—9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.91 -0.36
SD 1.82 1.54 2.61
CV 1.18 0.81 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
118.18%9.09%13.64%—4.55%—45.45%
29.09%18.18%————27.27%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total40.91%36.36%13.64%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.95 +0.68
SD 1.09 1.09 1.70
CV 0.67 1.14 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
19.09%13.64%—9.09%——31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%——9.09%22.73%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total36.36%31.82%9.09%13.64%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.41 +0.14
SD 1.30 1.68 2.10
CV 0.84 1.19 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 50 37.04 +12.96
2 Throttur Reykjavik 33 25.05 +7.95
3 Vikingur Olafsvik 42 34.09 +7.91
4 KA Akureyri 33 27.20 +5.80
5 IB Bolungarvik 26 24.15 +1.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Hottur 21 34.75 -13.75
2 Tindastoll 27 35.47 -8.47
3 IR Reykjavik 14 21.91 -7.91
4 Fjolnir 29 32.52 -3.52
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 25 28.31 -3.31

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 11 Aug 2 – Sep 22 1 in 3,279
2 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 16 1 in 169
3 IR Reykjavik 2 Jun 2 – Jun 9 1 in 25
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 3 Jul 21 – Aug 1 1 in 23
5 Fjolnir 3 May 25 – Jun 9 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IR Reykjavik 11 Jul 21 – Sep 22 1 in 620
2 Fjolnir 5 Aug 25 – Sep 22 1 in 151
3 Tindastoll 3 Jul 21 – Aug 1 1 in 50
4 IF Hottur 3 Aug 1 – Aug 11 1 in 24
5 Thor Akureyri 2 Jun 21 – Jun 29 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fjolnir 11 May 12 – Jul 17 1 in 236
2 Thor Akureyri 11 Aug 2 – Sep 22 1 in 46
3 IR Reykjavik 4 Jun 2 – Jun 21 1 in 22
4 Throttur Reykjavik 5 Jun 16 – Jul 12 1 in 19
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 May 12 – Jun 9 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Hottur 9 Jun 22 – Aug 11 1 in 193
2 IR Reykjavik 11 Jul 21 – Sep 22 1 in 17
3 Thor Akureyri 4 Jun 16 – Jul 9 1 in 15
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 May 25 – Jun 22 1 in 13
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 6 May 12 – Jun 15 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Thor Akureyri26.54%18.58%13.71%11.06%8.79%7.05%5.20%3.84%2.41%1.65%0.89%0.28%
Vikingur Olafsvik12.72%13.32%13.27%12.41%11.36%10.20%8.15%6.70%5.30%3.52%2.27%0.78%
Throttur Reykjavik0.59%1.47%2.34%3.39%4.68%6.18%8.52%10.54%13.06%16.09%17.58%15.56%
KA Akureyri1.69%2.63%4.04%5.23%6.60%7.98%10.60%12.30%13.33%13.41%12.48%9.71%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur7.75%10.00%10.49%10.80%11.52%10.55%10.14%9.03%8.28%6.04%3.81%1.59%
Vikingur Reykjavik9.89%10.17%12.11%11.19%11.54%10.67%10.14%8.09%6.41%4.99%3.26%1.54%
Fjolnir9.06%10.35%10.48%11.74%10.94%11.13%9.98%8.34%7.12%5.08%3.77%2.01%
Tindastoll15.99%15.09%13.61%12.19%10.50%8.89%7.50%6.33%4.49%2.91%1.85%0.65%
IB Bolungarvik0.44%0.92%1.61%2.24%3.53%5.29%6.48%8.98%12.41%16.18%20.43%21.49%
Leiknir Reykjavik1.91%3.88%4.75%6.27%7.97%9.25%10.59%12.16%13.10%12.10%10.99%7.03%
IF Hottur13.27%13.31%12.94%12.21%10.89%9.91%8.66%7.12%5.09%3.82%1.90%0.88%
IR Reykjavik0.15%0.28%0.65%1.27%1.68%2.90%4.04%6.57%9.00%14.21%20.77%38.48%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.15%
Clear Edge
45.45%24.24%30.30%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 53.05 Elo pts.
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.31 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.5
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Thor Akureyri, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.86 * Some Luck: 4.86 to 7.3 * Lucky: 7.3 to 9.73 * Wild Swing: 9.73 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.87 * Close: 1.87 to 2.81 * Off: 2.81 to 3.74 * Way Off: 3.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.99 * A Surprise: 0.99 to 1.58 * Several Surprises: 1.58 to 2.17 * Many Surprises: 2.17 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.54 points
Lucky
06.0815
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.83
Off
02.345
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.81%
Thor Akureyri
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.31%
IF Hottur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.33
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
55%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.54
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.14
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.65
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.66
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1410.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Thor Akureyri 45.12% 53.71% 1.17%
Tindastoll 31.08% 66.42% 2.50%
IF Hottur 26.58% 70.64% 2.78%
Vikingur Olafsvik 26.04% 70.91% 3.05%
Vikingur Reykjavik 20.06% 75.14% 4.80%
Fjolnir 19.41% 74.81% 5.78%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 17.75% 76.85% 5.40%
Leiknir Reykjavik 5.79% 76.19% 18.02%
KA Akureyri 4.32% 73.49% 22.19%
Throttur Reykjavik 2.06% 64.80% 33.14%
IB Bolungarvik 1.36% 56.72% 41.92%
IR Reykjavik 0.43% 40.32% 59.25%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2012-05-12 Fjolnir D 1-1 1092 1043 49.4% 22.7% 27.9% -0.7 1
2012-05-12 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1043 1092 27.9% 22.7% 49.4% +0.7 1
2012-05-12 IF Hottur L 1-3 1014 1162 24.1% 22.0% 53.9% -6.5 0
2012-05-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1162 1014 53.9% 22.0% 24.1% +6.5 3
2012-05-12 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1014 1037 39.6% 23.3% 37.1% +5.1 3
2012-05-12 @ IR Reykjavik L 2-3 1037 1014 37.1% 23.3% 39.6% -5.1 0
2012-05-12 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1128 1066 51.1% 22.4% 26.5% +8.2 3
2012-05-12 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1066 1128 26.5% 22.4% 51.1% -8.2 0
2012-05-12 Tindastoll W 2-0 1102 1162 34.4% 23.2% 42.4% +12.0 3
2012-05-12 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1162 1102 42.4% 23.2% 34.4% -12.0 0
2012-05-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1016 1116 29.3% 22.8% 47.8% +0.7 1
2012-05-12 @ IB Bolungarvik D 0-0 1116 1016 47.8% 22.8% 29.3% -0.7 1
2012-05-19 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1168 1114 50.2% 22.6% 27.2% -0.8 4
2012-05-19 @ IF Hottur D 0-0 1114 1168 27.2% 22.6% 50.2% +0.8 4
2012-05-19 IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1116 1019 55.5% 21.7% 22.8% +3.8 4
2012-05-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1019 1116 22.8% 21.7% 55.5% -3.8 3
2012-05-19 KA Akureyri L 1-3 1058 1032 46.5% 23.0% 30.5% -11.2 0
2012-05-19 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-1 1032 1058 30.5% 23.0% 46.5% +11.2 3
2012-05-19 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1136 1008 59.2% 20.9% 20.0% +5.5 6
2012-05-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1008 1136 20.0% 20.9% 59.2% -5.5 0
2012-05-19 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1150 1091 50.8% 22.5% 26.7% -7.4 0
2012-05-19 @ Tindastoll W 1-0 1091 1150 26.7% 22.5% 50.8% +7.4 4
2012-05-20 IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1044 1017 46.6% 22.9% 30.4% -0.4 2
2012-05-20 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 1017 1044 30.4% 22.9% 46.6% +0.4 2
2012-05-25 Fjolnir L 0-5 1015 1044 38.8% 23.3% 37.9% -26.2 3
2012-05-25 @ IR Reykjavik W 5-0 1044 1015 37.9% 23.3% 38.8% +26.2 5
2012-05-25 Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1002 1047 36.5% 23.3% 40.2% +0.1 1
2012-05-25 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1047 1002 40.2% 23.3% 36.5% -0.1 1
2012-05-25 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1043 1120 32.3% 23.1% 44.6% +0.4 4
2012-05-25 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1120 1043 44.6% 23.1% 32.3% -0.4 5
2012-05-26 IF Hottur W 1-0 1098 1167 33.2% 23.2% 43.6% +6.5 7
2012-05-26 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1167 1098 43.6% 23.2% 33.2% -6.5 4
2012-05-26 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1114 1141 39.1% 23.3% 37.6% +5.8 7
2012-05-26 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1141 1114 37.6% 23.3% 39.1% -5.8 6
2012-05-26 Tindastoll L 2-5 1017 1142 26.5% 22.4% 51.1% -8.7 2
2012-05-26 @ IB Bolungarvik W 5-2 1142 1017 51.1% 22.4% 26.5% +8.7 3
2012-05-31 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1003 1120 27.3% 22.6% 50.2% +0.7 2
2012-05-31 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1120 1003 50.2% 22.6% 27.3% -0.7 8
2012-05-31 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1047 1119 32.8% 23.1% 44.0% +0.4 2
2012-05-31 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1119 1047 44.0% 23.1% 32.8% -0.4 6
2012-06-02 IB Bolungarvik D 0-0 1161 1009 61.8% 20.2% 18.0% -1.6 5
2012-06-02 @ IF Hottur D 0-0 1009 1161 18.0% 20.2% 61.8% +1.6 3
2012-06-02 IR Reykjavik L 2-4 1151 989 62.9% 19.8% 17.3% -13.0 3
2012-06-02 @ Tindastoll W 4-2 989 1151 17.3% 19.8% 62.9% +12.9 6
2012-06-02 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1070 1043 46.5% 23.0% 30.5% +8.0 8
2012-06-02 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 1043 1070 30.5% 23.0% 46.5% -8.0 4
2012-06-02 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1136 1105 47.1% 22.9% 30.0% +4.6 9
2012-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1105 1136 30.0% 22.9% 47.1% -4.6 7
2012-06-09 Fjolnir L 2-6 1119 1078 48.5% 22.8% 28.8% -18.0 6
2012-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 6-2 1078 1119 28.8% 22.8% 48.5% +18.0 11
2012-06-09 IF Hottur W 2-1 1002 1159 23.1% 21.8% 55.1% +7.5 9
2012-06-09 @ IR Reykjavik L 1-2 1159 1002 55.1% 21.8% 23.1% -7.5 5
2012-06-09 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1120 1047 52.5% 22.2% 25.3% +3.9 11
2012-06-09 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1047 1120 25.3% 22.2% 52.5% -3.9 2
2012-06-09 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1100 1003 55.5% 21.7% 22.8% +3.6 10
2012-06-09 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1003 1100 22.8% 21.7% 55.5% -3.6 2
2012-06-09 Tindastoll D 2-2 1035 1138 29.0% 22.8% 48.2% +0.5 5
2012-06-09 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1138 1035 48.2% 22.8% 29.0% -0.5 4
2012-06-11 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1010 1140 25.9% 22.4% 51.7% -4.0 3
2012-06-11 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1140 1010 51.7% 22.4% 25.9% +4.0 12
2012-06-15 Fjolnir D 0-0 1043 1096 35.5% 23.3% 41.3% +0.2 3
2012-06-15 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1096 1043 41.3% 23.3% 35.5% -0.2 12
2012-06-15 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1152 1036 57.8% 21.2% 21.0% +6.6 8
2012-06-15 @ IF Hottur L 0-2 1036 1152 21.0% 21.2% 57.8% -6.6 5
2012-06-16 IB Bolungarvik D 1-1 1000 1006 42.0% 23.2% 34.8% -0.2 3
2012-06-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1006 1000 34.8% 23.2% 42.0% +0.2 4
2012-06-16 IR Reykjavik D 2-2 1144 1009 59.9% 20.7% 19.4% -1.0 13
2012-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1009 1144 19.4% 20.7% 59.9% +1.0 10
2012-06-16 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1123 1104 45.6% 23.0% 31.4% -12.7 11
2012-06-16 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1104 1123 31.4% 23.0% 45.6% +12.7 13
2012-06-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1138 1101 47.9% 22.8% 29.3% +7.7 7
2012-06-16 @ Tindastoll L 1-3 1101 1138 29.3% 22.8% 47.9% -7.7 6
2012-06-21 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1029 1143 27.7% 22.6% 49.7% +6.5 8
2012-06-21 @ KA Akureyri L 2-3 1143 1029 49.7% 22.6% 27.7% -6.5 13
2012-06-21 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1010 999 44.4% 23.1% 32.5% -0.4 11
2012-06-21 @ IR Reykjavik D 0-0 999 1010 32.5% 23.1% 44.4% +0.4 4
2012-06-21 Tindastoll W 2-0 1096 1145 35.8% 23.3% 40.9% +11.7 15
2012-06-21 @ Fjolnir L 0-2 1145 1096 40.9% 23.3% 35.8% -11.7 7
2012-06-22 IF Hottur D 2-2 1093 1158 33.7% 23.2% 43.1% +0.2 7
2012-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1158 1093 43.1% 23.2% 33.7% -0.2 9
2012-06-22 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1117 1044 52.6% 22.2% 25.2% -7.6 13
2012-06-22 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1044 1117 25.2% 22.2% 52.6% +7.6 6
2012-06-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1006 1111 28.8% 22.8% 48.4% +0.7 5
2012-06-23 @ IB Bolungarvik D 0-0 1111 1006 48.4% 22.8% 28.8% -0.7 12
2012-06-29 IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1110 1010 55.9% 21.6% 22.5% +3.5 15
2012-06-29 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1010 1110 22.5% 21.6% 55.9% -3.5 11
2012-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1137 1093 48.8% 22.7% 28.5% -13.5 13
2012-06-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1093 1137 28.5% 22.7% 48.8% +13.5 10
2012-06-30 Fjolnir D 0-0 1158 1107 49.8% 22.6% 27.6% -0.8 10
2012-06-30 @ IF Hottur D 0-0 1107 1158 27.6% 22.6% 49.8% +0.8 16
2012-06-30 IB Bolungarvik W 4-0 1109 1007 56.1% 21.6% 22.3% +13.3 16
2012-06-30 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-4 1007 1109 22.3% 21.6% 56.1% -13.3 5
2012-06-30 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1000 1036 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% +5.6 7
2012-06-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1036 1000 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% -5.6 8
2012-06-30 Tindastoll D 1-1 1051 1134 31.5% 23.0% 45.5% +0.4 7
2012-06-30 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1134 1051 45.5% 23.0% 31.5% -0.4 8
2012-07-04 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1030 1114 31.4% 23.0% 45.6% +0.3 9
2012-07-04 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1114 1030 45.6% 23.0% 31.4% -0.3 16
2012-07-04 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1107 1005 56.0% 21.6% 22.4% -8.0 10
2012-07-04 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1005 1107 22.4% 21.6% 56.0% +8.0 10
2012-07-05 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1006 1122 27.5% 22.6% 49.9% -4.5 11
2012-07-05 @ IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1122 1006 49.9% 22.6% 27.5% +4.5 19
2012-07-07 IF Hottur W 6-2 1133 1157 39.5% 23.3% 37.2% +14.6 11
2012-07-07 @ Tindastoll L 2-6 1157 1133 37.2% 23.3% 39.5% -14.5 10
2012-07-07 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-3 994 1052 34.7% 23.2% 42.0% +5.5 8
2012-07-07 @ IB Bolungarvik L 3-4 1052 994 42.0% 23.2% 34.7% -5.5 7
2012-07-09 Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1108 1123 40.7% 23.3% 36.0% -0.2 17
2012-07-09 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1123 1108 36.0% 23.3% 40.7% +0.2 14
2012-07-12 Fjolnir D 3-3 1014 1108 30.0% 22.9% 47.1% +0.3 11
2012-07-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 3-3 1108 1014 47.1% 22.9% 30.0% -0.3 18
2012-07-12 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1113 1099 44.9% 23.1% 32.0% +9.6 19
2012-07-12 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1099 1113 32.0% 23.1% 44.9% -9.6 10
2012-07-13 IF Hottur W 6-1 1046 1143 29.7% 22.9% 47.4% +25.5 10
2012-07-13 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-6 1143 1046 47.4% 22.9% 29.7% -25.5 10
2012-07-13 IR Reykjavik W 2-1 999 1002 42.5% 23.2% 34.2% +5.1 11
2012-07-13 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1002 999 34.2% 23.2% 42.5% -5.1 11
2012-07-13 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1127 1030 55.5% 21.7% 22.8% -8.0 19
2012-07-13 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1030 1127 22.8% 21.7% 55.5% +8.0 12
2012-07-17 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1108 1123 40.7% 23.3% 36.0% +20.0 21
2012-07-17 @ Fjolnir L 0-4 1123 1108 36.0% 23.3% 40.7% -20.0 19
2012-07-17 IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1038 1004 47.5% 22.9% 29.6% -0.4 13
2012-07-17 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1004 1038 29.6% 22.9% 47.5% +0.4 12
2012-07-17 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 997 1072 32.5% 23.1% 44.4% +6.2 14
2012-07-17 @ IR Reykjavik L 1-2 1072 997 44.4% 23.1% 32.5% -6.2 10
2012-07-17 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1148 1014 59.8% 20.7% 19.5% +5.3 14
2012-07-17 @ Tindastoll L 1-3 1014 1148 19.5% 20.7% 59.8% -5.3 11
2012-07-17 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1089 1119 38.6% 23.3% 38.0% +5.5 13
2012-07-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1119 1089 38.0% 23.3% 38.6% -5.5 19
2012-07-21 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1153 1103 49.7% 22.6% 27.7% -7.2 14
2012-07-21 @ Tindastoll W 1-0 1103 1153 27.7% 22.6% 49.7% +7.2 22
2012-07-21 IB Bolungarvik W 3-0 1095 1005 54.7% 21.9% 23.5% +10.7 16
2012-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1005 1095 23.5% 21.9% 54.7% -10.7 12
2012-07-21 IR Reykjavik W 5-1 1038 1003 47.7% 22.9% 29.5% +14.2 16
2012-07-21 @ KA Akureyri L 1-5 1003 1038 29.5% 22.9% 47.7% -14.2 14
2012-07-21 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1117 1008 56.9% 21.4% 21.7% -1.3 11
2012-07-21 @ IF Hottur D 0-0 1008 1117 21.7% 21.4% 56.9% +1.3 12
2012-07-21 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1128 1113 44.9% 23.1% 32.1% -6.3 21
2012-07-21 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1113 1128 32.1% 23.1% 44.9% +6.3 22
2012-07-22 Thor Akureyri L 1-5 1065 1123 34.7% 23.2% 42.1% -16.2 10
2012-07-22 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 5-1 1123 1065 42.1% 23.2% 34.7% +16.2 17
2012-07-26 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 989 1105 27.4% 22.6% 50.0% -12.3 14
2012-07-26 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-0 1105 989 50.0% 22.6% 27.4% +12.3 19
2012-07-27 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1052 1049 43.3% 23.2% 33.5% -6.1 16
2012-07-27 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1049 1052 33.5% 23.2% 43.3% +6.1 13
2012-07-28 Fjolnir D 2-2 994 1121 26.2% 22.4% 51.4% +0.6 13
2012-07-28 @ IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1121 994 51.4% 22.4% 26.2% -0.6 22
2012-07-28 IF Hottur D 0-0 1110 1116 42.0% 23.2% 34.7% -0.2 23
2012-07-28 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1116 1110 34.7% 23.2% 42.0% +0.3 12
2012-07-28 Tindastoll W 2-1 1120 1146 39.2% 23.3% 37.5% +5.5 25
2012-07-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1146 1120 37.5% 23.3% 39.2% -5.5 14
2012-07-29 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1010 1140 25.9% 22.4% 51.7% +7.5 15
2012-07-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1140 1010 51.7% 22.4% 25.9% -7.5 17
2012-08-01 IB Bolungarvik L 0-1 1140 995 61.1% 20.4% 18.5% -8.6 14
2012-08-01 @ Tindastoll W 1-0 995 1140 18.5% 20.4% 61.1% +8.6 16
2012-08-01 IR Reykjavik W 3-0 1121 977 60.9% 20.4% 18.6% +8.6 25
2012-08-01 @ Fjolnir L 0-3 977 1121 18.6% 20.4% 60.9% -8.6 14
2012-08-01 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1118 1046 52.4% 22.2% 25.4% -7.6 19
2012-08-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1046 1118 25.4% 22.2% 52.4% +7.6 19
2012-08-01 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-3 1116 1125 41.6% 23.2% 35.1% -17.2 12
2012-08-01 @ IF Hottur W 3-0 1125 1116 35.1% 23.2% 41.6% +17.2 28
2012-08-02 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1132 1110 46.0% 23.0% 31.0% +4.7 20
2012-08-02 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1110 1132 31.0% 23.0% 46.0% -4.7 23
2012-08-08 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1099 1137 37.5% 23.3% 39.2% -5.5 12
2012-08-08 @ IF Hottur W 2-1 1137 1099 39.2% 23.3% 37.5% +5.5 23
2012-08-09 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1110 1055 50.3% 22.6% 27.2% -0.7 20
2012-08-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1055 1110 27.2% 22.6% 50.3% +0.8 14
2012-08-09 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 1105 1017 54.4% 21.9% 23.7% -21.5 23
2012-08-09 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1017 1105 23.7% 21.9% 54.4% +21.5 18
2012-08-09 Tindastoll L 0-4 968 1132 22.5% 21.6% 55.9% -13.4 14
2012-08-09 @ IR Reykjavik W 4-0 1132 968 55.9% 21.6% 22.5% +13.4 17
2012-08-10 Fjolnir W 2-1 1054 1129 32.4% 23.1% 44.5% +6.2 22
2012-08-10 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1129 1054 44.5% 23.1% 32.4% -6.2 25
2012-08-11 IF Hottur W 3-1 1003 1094 30.5% 23.0% 46.5% +11.2 19
2012-08-11 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-3 1094 1003 46.5% 23.0% 30.5% -11.2 12
2012-08-11 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1142 1142 42.9% 23.2% 33.9% -6.1 28
2012-08-11 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1142 1142 33.9% 23.2% 42.9% +6.1 26
2012-08-12 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1056 1039 45.3% 23.1% 31.7% -6.3 14
2012-08-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1039 1056 31.7% 23.1% 45.3% +6.3 21
2012-08-16 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1050 1084 38.0% 23.3% 38.6% +0.0 15
2012-08-16 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1084 1050 38.6% 23.3% 38.0% -0.0 24
2012-08-16 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1145 1060 54.1% 21.9% 23.9% -1.1 18
2012-08-16 @ Tindastoll D 0-0 1060 1145 23.9% 21.9% 54.1% +1.1 23
2012-08-16 Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-1 1045 1136 30.4% 22.9% 46.6% +15.9 24
2012-08-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 1136 1045 46.6% 22.9% 30.4% -15.9 28
2012-08-16 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1123 1109 44.8% 23.1% 32.1% -0.4 26
2012-08-16 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1109 1123 32.1% 23.1% 44.8% +0.4 21
2012-08-17 IB Bolungarvik W 3-2 1148 1015 59.8% 20.7% 19.5% +2.9 29
2012-08-17 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1015 1148 19.5% 20.7% 59.8% -2.9 19
2012-08-17 IR Reykjavik W 5-1 1082 955 59.1% 20.9% 20.0% +10.0 15
2012-08-17 @ IF Hottur L 1-5 955 1082 20.0% 20.9% 59.1% -10.0 14
2012-08-21 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1120 1084 47.9% 22.8% 29.3% +8.9 31
2012-08-21 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1084 1120 29.3% 22.8% 47.9% -8.9 24
2012-08-21 IF Hottur W 4-1 1061 1092 38.4% 23.3% 38.3% +13.6 26
2012-08-21 @ KA Akureyri L 1-4 1092 1061 38.3% 23.3% 38.4% -13.6 15
2012-08-21 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1123 1050 52.6% 22.2% 25.2% +3.9 29
2012-08-21 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1050 1123 25.2% 22.2% 52.6% -3.9 15
2012-08-21 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 945 1151 18.8% 20.4% 60.8% -3.0 14
2012-08-21 @ IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1151 945 60.8% 20.4% 18.8% +3.0 32
2012-08-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1012 1061 35.9% 23.3% 40.8% +11.6 22
2012-08-21 @ IB Bolungarvik L 0-2 1061 1012 40.8% 23.3% 35.9% -11.7 24
2012-08-21 Tindastoll W 5-0 1110 1144 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% +26.1 24
2012-08-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-5 1144 1110 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% -26.1 18
2012-08-24 IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1049 942 56.8% 21.4% 21.8% +3.6 27
2012-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 942 1049 21.8% 21.4% 56.8% -3.6 14
2012-08-24 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1046 1129 31.4% 23.0% 45.6% +0.5 16
2012-08-24 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1129 1046 45.6% 23.0% 31.4% -0.5 32
2012-08-25 Fjolnir W 2-1 1118 1127 41.7% 23.2% 35.1% +5.2 21
2012-08-25 @ Tindastoll L 1-2 1127 1118 35.1% 23.2% 41.7% -5.2 29
2012-08-25 IB Bolungarvik W 3-0 1075 1023 49.8% 22.6% 27.6% +12.3 27
2012-08-25 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1023 1075 27.6% 22.6% 49.8% -12.3 22
2012-08-25 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1154 1075 53.4% 22.1% 24.5% +4.1 35
2012-08-25 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1075 1154 24.5% 22.1% 53.4% -4.0 26
2012-08-25 Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-2 1079 1136 34.9% 23.2% 41.9% +12.6 18
2012-08-25 @ IF Hottur L 2-5 1136 1079 41.9% 23.2% 34.9% -12.6 24
2012-08-28 Tindastoll W 4-0 1158 1123 47.7% 22.9% 29.4% +17.0 38
2012-08-28 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-4 1123 1158 29.4% 22.9% 47.7% -17.0 21
2012-08-31 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 938 1087 23.9% 21.9% 54.1% -7.5 14
2012-08-31 @ IR Reykjavik W 2-0 1087 938 54.1% 21.9% 23.9% +7.5 30
2012-08-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1070 1053 45.3% 23.1% 31.6% +5.0 29
2012-08-31 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1053 1070 31.6% 23.1% 45.3% -5.1 27
2012-09-01 IF Hottur L 1-2 1121 1091 47.0% 22.9% 30.1% -6.5 29
2012-09-01 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1091 1121 30.1% 22.9% 47.0% +6.5 21
2012-09-01 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1106 1046 50.9% 22.5% 26.6% +4.1 24
2012-09-01 @ Tindastoll L 1-2 1046 1106 26.6% 22.5% 50.9% -4.1 16
2012-09-01 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1123 1175 35.5% 23.3% 41.2% -9.0 24
2012-09-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1175 1123 41.2% 23.3% 35.5% +9.0 41
2012-09-01 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1011 1129 27.3% 22.6% 50.2% -4.2 22
2012-09-01 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1129 1011 50.2% 22.6% 27.3% +4.2 35
2012-09-04 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1095 1076 45.5% 23.0% 31.4% -12.7 30
2012-09-04 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1076 1095 31.4% 23.0% 45.5% +12.7 32
2012-09-05 Tindastoll L 2-3 1098 1110 41.2% 23.3% 35.6% -5.6 21
2012-09-05 @ IF Hottur W 3-2 1110 1098 35.6% 23.3% 41.2% +5.6 27
2012-09-06 Fjolnir W 1-0 1184 1115 52.1% 22.3% 25.6% +4.2 44
2012-09-06 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1115 1184 25.6% 22.3% 52.1% -4.2 29
2012-09-08 IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1042 1007 47.7% 22.9% 29.4% +4.5 19
2012-09-08 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1007 1042 29.4% 22.9% 47.7% -4.5 22
2012-09-08 IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1133 930 67.0% 18.5% 14.5% +2.4 38
2012-09-08 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 930 1133 14.5% 18.5% 67.0% -2.4 14
2012-09-08 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1048 1114 33.6% 23.2% 43.2% -5.3 27
2012-09-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1114 1048 43.2% 23.2% 33.6% +5.3 27
2012-09-15 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1119 1082 48.0% 22.8% 29.2% +7.7 30
2012-09-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1082 1119 29.2% 22.8% 48.0% -7.7 30
2012-09-15 IB Bolungarvik L 1-5 928 1002 32.5% 23.1% 44.3% -15.4 14
2012-09-15 @ IR Reykjavik W 5-1 1002 928 44.3% 23.1% 32.5% +15.4 25
2012-09-15 Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1092 1047 49.1% 22.7% 28.2% -6.4 21
2012-09-15 @ IF Hottur W 3-2 1047 1092 28.2% 22.7% 49.1% +6.4 22
2012-09-15 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1116 1189 32.7% 23.1% 44.1% -5.2 27
2012-09-15 @ Tindastoll W 1-0 1189 1116 44.1% 23.1% 32.7% +5.2 47
2012-09-15 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1111 1043 52.0% 22.3% 25.7% -12.3 29
2012-09-15 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1043 1111 25.7% 22.3% 52.0% +12.3 30
2012-09-16 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-4 1088 1135 36.2% 23.3% 40.5% -20.1 32
2012-09-16 @ KA Akureyri W 4-0 1135 1088 40.5% 23.3% 36.2% +20.1 41
2012-09-22 Fjolnir W 1-0 1074 1098 39.5% 23.3% 37.2% +5.8 33
2012-09-22 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1098 1074 37.2% 23.3% 39.5% -5.8 29
2012-09-22 IF Hottur W 1-0 1194 1086 56.8% 21.4% 21.8% +3.6 50
2012-09-22 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1086 1194 21.8% 21.4% 56.8% -3.6 21
2012-09-22 IR Reykjavik W 2-0 1053 913 60.5% 20.5% 19.0% +6.0 25
2012-09-22 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 913 1053 19.0% 20.5% 60.5% -6.0 14
2012-09-22 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1018 1068 35.7% 23.3% 41.0% +0.2 26
2012-09-22 @ IB Bolungarvik D 0-0 1068 1018 41.0% 23.3% 35.7% -0.2 33
2012-09-22 Tindastoll W 6-0 1055 1111 35.0% 23.2% 41.7% +32.9 33
2012-09-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-6 1111 1055 41.7% 23.2% 35.0% -32.9 27
2012-09-22 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1156 1127 46.8% 22.9% 30.3% -0.3 42
2012-09-22 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 3-3 1127 1156 30.3% 22.9% 46.8% +0.3 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-06-02 17.29% IR Reykjavik 989 4 @ Tindastoll 1151 2
2 2012-08-01 18.54% IB Bolungarvik 995 1 @ Tindastoll 1140 0
3 2012-07-04 22.37% Throttur Reykjavik 1005 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1107 0
4 2012-07-13 22.83% KA Akureyri 1030 1 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1127 0
5 2012-06-09 23.11% @ IR Reykjavik 1002 2 IF Hottur 1159 1
6 2012-08-09 23.68% Throttur Reykjavik 1017 3 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1105 0
7 2012-06-22 25.18% Leiknir Reykjavik 1044 1 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1117 0
8 2012-08-01 25.35% KA Akureyri 1046 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1118 0
9 2012-09-15 25.72% Throttur Reykjavik 1043 3 @ Fjolnir 1111 1
10 2012-07-29 25.94% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1010 1 Thor Akureyri 1140 0
11 2012-05-19 26.74% Vikingur Olafsvik 1091 1 @ Tindastoll 1150 0
12 2012-07-21 27.68% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1103 1 @ Tindastoll 1153 0
13 2012-06-21 27.70% @ KA Akureyri 1029 3 Thor Akureyri 1143 2
14 2012-09-15 28.19% Leiknir Reykjavik 1047 3 @ IF Hottur 1092 2
15 2012-06-29 28.47% Vikingur Reykjavik 1093 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1137 0
16 2012-06-09 28.77% Fjolnir 1078 6 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1119 2
17 2012-07-13 29.74% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1046 6 IF Hottur 1143 1
18 2012-09-01 30.09% IF Hottur 1091 2 @ Fjolnir 1121 1
19 2012-08-16 30.41% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1045 4 Vikingur Olafsvik 1136 1
20 2012-05-19 30.52% KA Akureyri 1032 3 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1058 1
21 2012-08-11 30.52% @ IB Bolungarvik 1003 3 IF Hottur 1094 1
22 2012-06-16 31.38% Vikingur Olafsvik 1104 2 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1123 0
23 2012-09-04 31.45% KA Akureyri 1076 2 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1095 0
24 2012-08-12 31.68% Throttur Reykjavik 1039 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1056 1
25 2012-07-21 32.06% Vikingur Olafsvik 1113 2 @ Fjolnir 1128 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-09-22 32.92 @ Throttur Reykjavik 6 1055 35.03% Tindastoll 0 1111 41.73% 23.25%
2 2012-05-25 26.20 Fjolnir 5 1044 37.86% @ IR Reykjavik 0 1015 38.83% 23.30%
3 2012-08-21 26.14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1110 37.99% Tindastoll 0 1144 38.71% 23.30%
4 2012-07-13 25.45 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 6 1046 29.74% IF Hottur 1 1143 47.38% 22.88%
5 2012-08-09 21.46 Throttur Reykjavik 3 1017 23.68% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1105 54.43% 21.90%
6 2012-09-16 20.13 Vikingur Olafsvik 4 1135 40.53% @ KA Akureyri 0 1088 36.19% 23.28%
7 2012-07-17 20.05 @ Fjolnir 4 1108 40.73% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1123 36.00% 23.27%
8 2012-06-09 17.96 Fjolnir 6 1078 28.77% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1119 48.46% 22.77%
9 2012-08-01 17.19 Vikingur Olafsvik 3 1125 35.11% @ IF Hottur 0 1116 41.65% 23.25%
10 2012-08-28 17.04 @ Thor Akureyri 4 1158 47.70% Tindastoll 0 1123 29.45% 22.85%
11 2012-07-22 16.23 Thor Akureyri 5 1123 42.07% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1 1065 34.70% 23.23%
12 2012-08-16 15.89 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1045 30.41% Vikingur Olafsvik 1 1136 46.64% 22.95%
13 2012-09-15 15.42 IB Bolungarvik 5 1002 44.34% @ IR Reykjavik 1 928 32.54% 23.12%
14 2012-07-07 14.56 @ Tindastoll 6 1133 39.46% IF Hottur 2 1157 37.24% 23.30%
15 2012-07-21 14.21 @ KA Akureyri 5 1038 47.67% IR Reykjavik 1 1003 29.48% 22.85%
16 2012-08-21 13.57 @ KA Akureyri 4 1061 38.42% IF Hottur 1 1092 38.28% 23.30%
17 2012-06-29 13.47 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1093 28.47% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1137 48.79% 22.73%
18 2012-08-09 13.43 Tindastoll 4 1132 55.89% @ IR Reykjavik 0 968 22.50% 21.61%
19 2012-06-30 13.33 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 4 1109 56.12% IB Bolungarvik 0 1007 22.31% 21.57%
20 2012-06-02 12.95 IR Reykjavik 4 989 17.29% @ Tindastoll 2 1151 62.87% 19.84%
21 2012-06-16 12.73 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1104 31.38% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1123 45.59% 23.03%
22 2012-09-04 12.71 KA Akureyri 2 1076 31.45% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1095 45.51% 23.04%
23 2012-08-25 12.61 @ IF Hottur 5 1079 34.86% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1136 41.91% 23.24%
24 2012-08-25 12.33 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 1075 49.83% IB Bolungarvik 0 1023 27.56% 22.61%
25 2012-09-15 12.30 Throttur Reykjavik 3 1043 25.72% @ Fjolnir 1 1111 51.97% 22.31%