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2026-27 EFL League Two Season

0 games played · 24 teams

Live

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Top Promotion Contender

Exeter City

63% promotion probability

Biggest Overachiever

Accrington Stanley

0.00 points above expected

0 points · 0.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Accrington Stanley

0.00 points below expected

0 points · 0.00 expected points

League Table

Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Accrington Stanley 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
2 Barnet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
3 Bristol Rovers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
4 Cheltenham Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
5 Chesterfield 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
6 Colchester United 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
7 Crawley Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
8 Crewe Alexandra 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
9 Exeter City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
10 Fleetwood Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
11 Gillingham 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
12 Grimsby Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
13 Newport County 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
14 Northampton Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
15 Oldham Athletic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
16 Port Vale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
17 Rochdale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
18 Rotherham United 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
19 Salford City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
20 Shrewsbury Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
21 Swindon Town 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
22 Tranmere Rovers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
23 Walsall 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00
24 York City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 +0.00

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

No game-level data.

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

No game-level data.
No game-level data.

Season Summary

Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.

Team Elo Points Avg Exp. Pts. Rem. Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Exeter City 1536 0 82.81 82.81 51 69 77 83 89 97 110
Port Vale 1509 0 78.54 78.54 48 65 73 79 84 92 112
Grimsby Town 1497 0 76.55 76.55 44 62 71 76 82 91 112
Barnet 1495 0 76.13 76.13 45 62 70 76 82 90 106
Rotherham United 1486 0 74.58 74.58 38 61 69 74 80 89 106
Chesterfield 1485 0 74.62 74.62 46 61 69 75 80 89 106
York City 1480 0 73.59 73.59 39 60 68 74 79 87 106
Oldham Athletic 1470 0 71.82 71.82 40 58 66 72 77 86 107
Salford City 1463 0 70.75 70.75 36 57 65 71 77 85 101
Colchester United 1453 0 69.08 69.08 40 55 63 69 75 83 103
Bristol Rovers 1435 0 65.72 65.72 33 52 60 66 71 80 100
Swindon Town 1432 0 65.27 65.27 36 51 59 65 71 79 97
Northampton Town 1428 0 64.77 64.77 34 51 59 65 70 78 93
Crewe Alexandra 1410 0 61.50 61.50 27 48 56 61 67 75 95
Rochdale 1410 0 61.57 61.57 33 48 56 62 67 76 95
Fleetwood Town 1402 0 60.11 60.11 29 47 55 60 66 74 100
Walsall 1375 0 55.51 55.51 26 42 50 55 61 69 94
Cheltenham Town 1335 0 48.80 48.80 22 36 43 49 54 62 80
Crawley Town 1330 0 48.08 48.08 20 35 43 48 53 62 81
Accrington Stanley 1329 0 47.90 47.90 22 35 42 48 53 61 77
Shrewsbury Town 1312 0 45.35 45.35 20 33 40 45 51 59 75
Gillingham 1312 0 45.26 45.26 17 32 40 45 51 59 75
Newport County 1294 0 42.66 42.66 10 30 37 43 48 56 74
Tranmere Rovers 1275 0 39.84 39.84 15 28 35 40 45 53 66

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored — —
Allowed — —
Differential — —

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

No data available.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Accrington Stanley 0 0.00 +0.00
2 Barnet 0 0.00 +0.00
3 Walsall 0 0.00 +0.00
4 Tranmere Rovers 0 0.00 +0.00
5 Swindon Town 0 0.00 +0.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Accrington Stanley 0 0.00 +0.00
2 Tranmere Rovers 0 0.00 +0.00
3 Swindon Town 0 0.00 +0.00
4 Shrewsbury Town 0 0.00 +0.00
5 Salford City 0 0.00 +0.00

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Accrington Stanley————0.05%0.05%0.07%0.13%0.45%0.59%0.77%0.99%1.84%2.43%3.89%5.60%7.78%9.77%12.23%12.44%13.09%11.63%9.12%7.08%
Barnet9.75%11.16%10.90%10.43%9.13%8.75%7.76%6.72%5.75%4.77%4.07%3.13%2.80%1.84%1.33%0.70%0.53%0.29%0.11%0.05%0.02%0.01%——
Bristol Rovers0.74%1.64%2.48%3.24%3.88%4.52%5.74%6.59%6.91%7.69%8.20%8.15%7.92%7.86%6.60%6.09%4.49%2.92%1.95%1.20%0.67%0.32%0.13%0.07%
Cheltenham Town——0.01%0.01%0.05%0.15%0.10%0.23%0.38%0.50%0.94%1.58%2.04%3.05%4.83%6.34%8.48%10.90%11.73%12.30%11.54%10.31%8.36%6.17%
Chesterfield7.29%8.54%9.14%9.61%9.41%8.64%7.76%7.64%6.76%6.10%5.03%4.30%3.11%2.41%1.72%1.12%0.79%0.34%0.15%0.08%0.05%0.01%——
Colchester United2.26%3.34%4.48%5.24%6.15%6.60%7.11%7.65%7.78%8.19%7.77%7.54%6.72%4.93%4.58%3.69%2.33%1.64%0.93%0.62%0.28%0.10%0.07%—
Crawley Town0.01%—0.01%0.01%0.05%0.10%0.13%0.15%0.39%0.56%0.68%1.11%1.57%2.88%4.21%5.68%8.12%10.75%11.39%11.74%12.55%11.18%9.55%7.18%
Crewe Alexandra0.20%0.47%1.07%1.46%2.07%2.39%2.91%3.56%4.63%5.82%7.14%7.57%8.61%9.76%9.73%9.02%8.05%5.47%4.20%2.68%1.60%0.87%0.53%0.19%
Exeter City31.79%18.17%12.99%9.36%6.63%5.35%4.48%3.27%2.56%1.82%1.26%1.03%0.56%0.31%0.19%0.14%0.07%0.02%——————
Fleetwood Town0.10%0.41%0.69%0.92%1.21%1.79%2.17%3.27%4.08%5.01%6.06%7.34%8.75%9.56%10.05%9.98%8.88%7.01%4.89%3.37%2.09%1.43%0.70%0.24%
Gillingham———0.01%—0.02%0.01%0.08%0.16%0.20%0.37%0.50%0.96%1.69%2.65%3.71%5.52%7.73%10.39%12.27%12.92%14.28%13.97%12.56%
Grimsby Town10.94%11.50%10.96%9.97%9.30%9.18%7.46%6.30%5.93%4.69%3.45%3.27%2.35%1.95%1.13%0.74%0.37%0.27%0.17%0.04%0.02%0.01%——
Newport County—————0.01%0.02%0.05%0.04%0.09%0.12%0.18%0.46%0.88%1.25%2.39%3.47%5.69%7.72%10.99%12.29%15.39%18.47%20.49%
Northampton Town0.61%1.09%1.89%2.64%3.44%4.22%4.76%6.00%6.70%7.43%7.87%8.72%8.67%8.39%7.50%6.47%4.93%3.51%2.46%1.28%0.78%0.46%0.15%0.03%
Oldham Athletic4.12%5.90%5.95%7.34%8.07%8.26%8.34%8.23%7.45%7.54%6.69%5.31%4.67%4.30%2.73%2.27%1.15%0.86%0.35%0.25%0.16%0.04%0.01%0.01%
Port Vale15.66%14.00%12.53%10.76%9.27%7.84%6.69%5.47%4.48%3.59%3.24%2.42%1.58%0.94%0.75%0.44%0.20%0.06%0.04%0.03%0.01%———
Rochdale0.29%0.51%0.96%1.38%1.90%2.35%3.46%3.77%5.05%5.63%6.80%8.06%8.49%9.54%9.36%8.88%7.57%5.67%4.36%2.58%1.65%0.99%0.54%0.21%
Rotherham United6.51%9.35%9.85%9.25%8.59%8.92%8.17%7.24%6.86%5.98%5.37%4.16%3.32%2.19%1.91%1.04%0.59%0.44%0.16%0.02%0.06%0.01%—0.01%
Salford City3.22%5.00%5.63%6.36%7.36%7.44%7.78%7.82%8.13%7.17%7.10%6.43%5.72%4.79%3.56%2.61%1.82%1.05%0.49%0.27%0.18%0.04%0.01%0.02%
Shrewsbury Town————0.01%0.01%0.07%0.09%0.08%0.18%0.37%0.50%1.23%1.45%2.68%3.83%5.70%7.86%9.76%12.34%13.51%14.45%14.14%11.74%
Swindon Town0.81%1.38%2.16%2.89%3.89%4.29%5.66%6.29%6.55%7.30%7.68%8.09%8.95%7.80%7.18%6.34%4.72%3.26%2.29%1.16%0.67%0.50%0.12%0.02%
Tranmere Rovers—————————0.01%0.06%0.08%0.17%0.42%0.62%1.07%2.30%3.58%4.97%7.40%10.42%14.32%21.75%32.83%
Walsall0.06%0.03%0.13%0.27%0.54%0.55%1.04%1.31%1.85%2.56%3.54%4.71%5.73%7.91%9.32%10.43%11.22%10.44%9.05%6.78%5.37%3.63%2.38%1.15%
York City5.64%7.51%8.17%8.85%9.00%8.57%8.31%8.14%7.03%6.58%5.42%4.83%3.78%2.72%2.23%1.42%0.92%0.47%0.21%0.11%0.07%0.02%——

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No data available.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Season metrics are available for completed seasons.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Exeter City 62.95% 25.82% 11.23% —
Port Vale 42.19% 34.56% 23.25% —
Grimsby Town 33.40% 35.91% 30.69% —
Barnet 31.81% 36.07% 32.12% —
Rotherham United 25.71% 34.93% 39.35% 0.01%
Chesterfield 24.97% 35.42% 39.61% —
York City 21.32% 34.73% 43.95% —
Oldham Athletic 15.97% 32.01% 52.00% 0.02%
Salford City 13.85% 28.94% 57.18% 0.03%
Colchester United 10.08% 25.10% 64.75% 0.07%
Bristol Rovers 4.86% 17.38% 77.56% 0.20%
Swindon Town 4.35% 16.73% 78.78% 0.14%
Northampton Town 3.59% 15.06% 81.17% 0.18%
Crewe Alexandra 1.74% 8.83% 88.71% 0.72%
Rochdale 1.76% 9.09% 88.40% 0.75%
Fleetwood Town 1.20% 6.09% 91.77% 0.94%
Walsall 0.22% 2.40% 93.85% 3.53%
Cheltenham Town 0.01% 0.31% 85.15% 14.53%
Accrington Stanley — 0.17% 83.63% 16.20%
Crawley Town 0.02% 0.29% 82.96% 16.73%
Shrewsbury Town — 0.09% 74.03% 25.88%
Gillingham — 0.04% 73.43% 26.53%
Newport County — 0.03% 61.01% 38.96%
Tranmere Rovers — — 45.42% 54.58%

No Game Data

Game logs will appear here once regular-season games are loaded.